Todd4State
01-07-2020, 03:02 AM
I don't have deep connections or sources. I'm also not a muppet. But I am involved in hiring people at where I work- nothing as high profile as a football coach but there are likely some similarities and some differences.
But here's my conspiracy theory:
I think this has been actually going on well before the Egg Bowl. I'm guessing that Napier has been Cohen's number one candidate all along because he makes the MOST sense for what we need. An experienced coach with SEC experience who is also a program builder. Checks off every box. And let's assume that- and I think this is key- that Napier has always been firm about not wanting distractions.
Well, as far as the Egg Bowl that kind of put us in a pickle because by winning we had to go to a bowl game- and no Cohen is NEVER going to turn that down nor should he- but we also had the early NSD period to deal with and then you have Ole Miss in our backyard and we all know how "ethical" they are especially when it comes to their two favorite things- recruiting and football in that order. Us not having a coach would have put us in a bind even if we "knew" it was Napier but couldn't hire him because of his no distractions policy. Probably would have cost us at least Forbes at a minimum and who knows who else? Losing Will Rogers potentially would have been disastrous to the class. So what do you do if you are Cohen and Keenum? I think what they did was probably the best thing that they could have done in that situation. You express confidence in Moorhead but you're essentially giving him a job interview without telling everyone that. This does several things:
1. You keep the recruiting class together which is exactly what happened. Even though apparently Pat Forde didn't get the memo but that's what happened.
2. You have a coaching staff in place for the bowl game. I think an interim staff may have hurt our bowl ticket sales and our chances of winning. Maybe not. Certainly debatable. Small potatoes one way or the other.
3. You give Moorhead a chance to see if he actually can turn it around. But Cohen after a 25 game sample size probably realized that odds were very high that he was going to screw it up. Now, I don't think he had a crystal ball and envisioned Shrader/Gay but odds were pretty high that he envisioned guys skipping practice and half assed effort and play were probably pretty likely. This explains partially why Cohen didn't go ahead and extend him- that probably would have occurred after the bowl if Moorhead had earned it but it also very clearly explains why Cohen was VERY adamant that our bowl game was a "business trip". If you have a lot of confidence in someone you don't come out and issue a statement like that publicly. And if Cohen wanted to he could have told Moorhead- hell no we're not playing Willie Gay. I think Cohen gave Moorhead the rope to hang himself and Joe did.
4. You prevent any backlash from the Liverpool's over firing a coach who beat Ole Miss and took us to a bowl game.
So I suspect we've been maintaining some contact with Napier this entire time. And I suspect his no distractions stance hasn't changed. We fire Joe and drag his Yankee ass out of here. ULL has now played their bowl game and here we are.
I personally think that Napier is still the guy or at the very least the leader at this point because that makes the most sense to me. I think a lot of the stuff that has been put out there is basically a smokescreen so as to not upset Napier because Cohen knows that rumors are going to get out there. But it's very telling that Cohen issued a statement about not believing rumors unless they came from him. I think that's where Rosebowl's marching orders are coming from.
My guess is we'll probably fly out to meet Napier this morning and try to finalize things- and I think that's probably the main holdup and where things could go full Schlossnagle. If it gets done Cohen could say "Oh, it was an interview and he just blew us away and everything just came together very quickly." When in reality it's more like a negotiation. Cohen will give Rosebowl an out. It doesn't really matter to me- it is what it is and if Rosebowl putting out a deflection helps us get the best coach kudos to Rosebowl. It may be a done deal like Bert Stare said- but I have a feeling there are some i's to dot and t's to cross.
Now at the same time I don't think Joe Judge is just a smokescreen. I think he's our clear number two. Which is kind of ironic because it sounds to me like he is going to put together a staff fairly close to what Hud's probably would have looked like. So, if Napier doesn't work out my guess is we go ahead and offer the job to Judge and then move on. So, I think the promotion of him is two fold.
1. Create a distraction away from Napier.
2. Promote him in case he is actually hired so there won't be any disappointment.
The other people I believe are mostly courtesy interviews. I'm not going to go into why Gene Chizik would be a terrible hire or why we shouldn't run the triple option.
So, those are my thoughts and if you have to ask me right now who I THINK we will hire- I'd say Napier. If I'm wrong- I'm OK with Judge as long as he hires elite coordinators.
But here's my conspiracy theory:
I think this has been actually going on well before the Egg Bowl. I'm guessing that Napier has been Cohen's number one candidate all along because he makes the MOST sense for what we need. An experienced coach with SEC experience who is also a program builder. Checks off every box. And let's assume that- and I think this is key- that Napier has always been firm about not wanting distractions.
Well, as far as the Egg Bowl that kind of put us in a pickle because by winning we had to go to a bowl game- and no Cohen is NEVER going to turn that down nor should he- but we also had the early NSD period to deal with and then you have Ole Miss in our backyard and we all know how "ethical" they are especially when it comes to their two favorite things- recruiting and football in that order. Us not having a coach would have put us in a bind even if we "knew" it was Napier but couldn't hire him because of his no distractions policy. Probably would have cost us at least Forbes at a minimum and who knows who else? Losing Will Rogers potentially would have been disastrous to the class. So what do you do if you are Cohen and Keenum? I think what they did was probably the best thing that they could have done in that situation. You express confidence in Moorhead but you're essentially giving him a job interview without telling everyone that. This does several things:
1. You keep the recruiting class together which is exactly what happened. Even though apparently Pat Forde didn't get the memo but that's what happened.
2. You have a coaching staff in place for the bowl game. I think an interim staff may have hurt our bowl ticket sales and our chances of winning. Maybe not. Certainly debatable. Small potatoes one way or the other.
3. You give Moorhead a chance to see if he actually can turn it around. But Cohen after a 25 game sample size probably realized that odds were very high that he was going to screw it up. Now, I don't think he had a crystal ball and envisioned Shrader/Gay but odds were pretty high that he envisioned guys skipping practice and half assed effort and play were probably pretty likely. This explains partially why Cohen didn't go ahead and extend him- that probably would have occurred after the bowl if Moorhead had earned it but it also very clearly explains why Cohen was VERY adamant that our bowl game was a "business trip". If you have a lot of confidence in someone you don't come out and issue a statement like that publicly. And if Cohen wanted to he could have told Moorhead- hell no we're not playing Willie Gay. I think Cohen gave Moorhead the rope to hang himself and Joe did.
4. You prevent any backlash from the Liverpool's over firing a coach who beat Ole Miss and took us to a bowl game.
So I suspect we've been maintaining some contact with Napier this entire time. And I suspect his no distractions stance hasn't changed. We fire Joe and drag his Yankee ass out of here. ULL has now played their bowl game and here we are.
I personally think that Napier is still the guy or at the very least the leader at this point because that makes the most sense to me. I think a lot of the stuff that has been put out there is basically a smokescreen so as to not upset Napier because Cohen knows that rumors are going to get out there. But it's very telling that Cohen issued a statement about not believing rumors unless they came from him. I think that's where Rosebowl's marching orders are coming from.
My guess is we'll probably fly out to meet Napier this morning and try to finalize things- and I think that's probably the main holdup and where things could go full Schlossnagle. If it gets done Cohen could say "Oh, it was an interview and he just blew us away and everything just came together very quickly." When in reality it's more like a negotiation. Cohen will give Rosebowl an out. It doesn't really matter to me- it is what it is and if Rosebowl putting out a deflection helps us get the best coach kudos to Rosebowl. It may be a done deal like Bert Stare said- but I have a feeling there are some i's to dot and t's to cross.
Now at the same time I don't think Joe Judge is just a smokescreen. I think he's our clear number two. Which is kind of ironic because it sounds to me like he is going to put together a staff fairly close to what Hud's probably would have looked like. So, if Napier doesn't work out my guess is we go ahead and offer the job to Judge and then move on. So, I think the promotion of him is two fold.
1. Create a distraction away from Napier.
2. Promote him in case he is actually hired so there won't be any disappointment.
The other people I believe are mostly courtesy interviews. I'm not going to go into why Gene Chizik would be a terrible hire or why we shouldn't run the triple option.
So, those are my thoughts and if you have to ask me right now who I THINK we will hire- I'd say Napier. If I'm wrong- I'm OK with Judge as long as he hires elite coordinators.