Boyd's first RPI Needs Report is out...

[engie]

http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

To finish in the RPI top 8, we need an adjusted WP of .688 in our remaining games(this number goes down over time due to teams' WP getting worse and worse the deeper they get into the conference schedules). Among ALL teams, only Florida needs a lower WP to finish in the top 8. This can be taken two ways. 1) We don't have to win as much as everyone else to hold the spot. 2) We have a difficult upcoming schedule.

Remaining schedule:
Auburn
Auburn
Auburn
NS Memphis
@Vandy
@Vandy
@Vandy
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
@OleMiss
@OleMiss
@OleMiss
Oral Roberts
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina

That's 10 home games, 6 road games, and 1 neutral site.

To get to .688, we need to go 3-3 on the road, win the neutral site, and go 8-2 at home.
Adjusted - 3.9-2.1 road, 1-0 NS, 5.6-2.6 home = 10.5-4.7 = .690

Again, it won't likely end up being this difficult -- but that's what it would take as of today...

[engie]

Arkansas' RPI needs report shows they need an actual(adjusted) WP of .760 in the remaining games to make the RPI top 16 to get into reasonable hosting contention. No SEC team has hosted in the past (at least) 5 years with an RPI outside the top 17.

They have 12 at home and 12 on the road and every single one of those games are loseable or winnable given the nature of their hitting. If they go 7-5 on the road and 10-2 at home, that's an RPI adjusted WP of 9.1-3.5 on the road and 7-1.6 at home. 16.1-5.1 = .759 -- right where they need to be -- and they are hosting. That means they've got to take 17 of these 24. The road games are the key -- lose ANY more than 5 of them and they can't make the top 16 even if they are perfect at home.

@Nebraska
@Nebraska
aTm
aTm
aTm
Oklahoma
@Georgia
@Georgia
@Georgia
Missouri St
@Kentucky
@Kentucky
@Kentucky
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
@Auburn
@Auburn
@Auburn

The Nebraska double header is going on right now on the road -- and they are down 3-0 in the 4th. Losing this doubleheader would be a pretty huge dagger to their chances of making up the ground in the RPI IMO...

[ScoobaDawg]

Not crazy talk...but still not easy to Sweep Auburn, Bama, UM and Steal 1 from USC to get to 18-12.

Wow.... National Seed talk just got more serious.

[engie]

Correct in that your method works...

I'd say the most likely way to finish in the RPI top 8 is to take 1 in Nashville and 2 in Oxford -- then take 5 of 6 from Auburn and Bama -- 2 of 3 from USCe -- and both remaining nonconference.

That puts us at 18-12 in the SEC -- and this number is likely to drop a game or 2 over the coming weeks as almost no teams will improve their WP this time of year.

If we could sweep this weekend and somehow manage to get 2 in Nashville, we seriously enter the national seed conversation... and all but lock up a host slot barring monumental collapse...

[dickiedawg]

That's within the realm of possibility, though 7-3 at home seems more feasible. I don't know if we can pull off a sweep of Auburn or Alabama, and even if we do 2-1 against SC is certainly no given. Neither is 3 wins between Vandy and Ole Miss, for that matter. We're hot right now, but 5 weeks is a long time to stay that way.

I think we'll close out at 11-6 (9-6) and finish at 17-13. This is going 5-1 against Auburn and Alabama, 1-2 against Vandy and 3-3 against Ole Miss and SC. Is this good enough to host? It's been since 2007 that an SEC team hosted with that few SEC wins (SC hosted at 17-13, UM hosted at 16-14, but both played in the Semis of the SECT)
Has anyone pointed out yet that our schedule kind of screwed us over?**

[Coach34]

I'd say the most likely way to finish in the RPI top 8 is to take 1 in Nashville and 2 in Oxford -- then take 5 of 6 from Auburn and Bama -- 2 of 3 from USCe -- and both remaining nonconference.
.

I think that could very well happen- we have to play our ass off, but that scenario is not a monumental task by any means

[engie]

Arky getting no-hit through 7. A loss here is pretty damn hurtful to their hosting chances...

[engie]

I think 2 of 3 in Oxford is very likely at this point IMO.

Again, Cohen took 3 of the 4 series against them at MSU during our rebuilt while they had stockpiled talent. He also took 3 of 3 from him at Kentucky during the height of the Bianco era. Even took 2 of 3 series from him at Northwestern St when Bianco was at McNeese. Until further notice -- when the chips are on the table -- we've got their number.

[CadaverDawg]

Arky getting no-hit through 7. A loss here is pretty damn hurtful to their hosting chances...

No hit through 8 now

[engie]

Nebraska heading to the 9th now with the no-hitter intact...

FWIW, the second game of this doubleheader will be live on the B1G Network...

[CadaverDawg]

Nebraska heading to the 9th now with the no-hitter intact...

FWIW, the second game of this doubleheader will be live on the B1G Network...

No hitter is complete. Damn. Nebraska has a losing record too.

[CadaverDawg]

Arkansas' RPI needs report shows they need an actual(adjusted) WP of .760 in the remaining games to make the RPI top 16 to get into reasonable hosting contention. No SEC team has hosted in the past (at least) 5 years with an RPI outside the top 17.

They have 12 at home and 12 on the road and every single one of those games are loseable or winnable given the nature of their hitting. If they go 7-5 on the road and 10-2 at home, that's an RPI adjusted WP of 9.1-3.5 on the road and 7-1.6 at home. 16.1-5.1 = .759 -- right where they need to be -- and they are hosting. That means they've got to take 17 of these 24. The road games are the key -- lose ANY more than 5 of them and they can't make the top 16 even if they are perfect at home.

@Nebraska
@Nebraska
aTm
aTm
aTm
Oklahoma
@Georgia
@Georgia
@Georgia
Missouri St
@Kentucky
@Kentucky
@Kentucky
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
@Auburn
@Auburn
@Auburn

The Nebraska double header is going on right now on the road -- and they are down 3-0 in the 4th. Losing this doubleheader would be a pretty huge dagger to their chances of making up the ground in the RPI IMO...

Engie, according to Warren Nolan, Arkansas' RPI now stands at 58 with a predicted 82. Is that different than what it was when you posted this before that game? Or is that not updated yet?

If so, that loss to Nebraska just hurt them pretty bad.

[engie]

Boyd's is constant for the whole year based on the RPI's of the #8, #16, #32, and #45 teams... At this point, SOS is pretty well established for the most part, so the formula becomes alot more about wins and losses than who you are actually playing. That loss today hurt Arky, no doubt -- but the big picture analysis stays the same. I MUCH prefer Boyd's setup to Warren Nolan because he doesn't presume to tell you what a team's record will be -- he simply gives you what you NEED it to be to accomplish to meet certain RPI benchmarks and you can break it down however you like.

They go 7-4 away and 10-2 at home, that should give them an RPI in the top 16... which is doable with their schedule and talent level, but their bats have potential to go ice cold at any moment.

Also, Tennessee beat RPI #12 Va Tech today. Helps the SEC overall from an RPI standpoint. Need these ACC teams in the teens to start faltering...

Portland also had Oregon on the ropes till the 9th -- down 4-1 now.

#149 Tennessee Tech is jumping ALL over Vandy right now to the tune of 6-0 early, so we'll see if that holds...

[engie]

4-1 Nebraska in the 9th with Arky back on the ropes...They are CERTAINLY not making it easy for themselves...

USM beating OM 2-1 in the 9th...

Tenn Tech holding on 8-5 over Vandy in the 7th, but this Vandy team has been very, very resilient all season...

[engie]

Arky goes down.
They've got to go 7-3 on the road and 10-2 at home the rest of the way to even get back into serious hosting conversation. If they win less than 7 of their final 10 road games, even going undefeated at home won't save them from an RPI standpoint.

[biscuit]

I still think we win 13 to close out. At least 4-2 vs Bama and Auburn, 4-2 vs USC and Ole Miss, beat Memphis and ORU, and take 1 from Vandy. We are starting to gel as a team and a national seed is very much within the realm of possibilities if not almost certain if we win 13 and take a few in the SEC tournament.