Fitz vs Tommy vs Shrader: stats vs weak/strong opponents...

[DeviousDawg]

I am just going to be looking at stats dating back to 2018 for Fitz, so we can have a true comparison of what our QB's have done under Moorhead vs weak and strong opponents. "Weak" and "strong" opponent classification is obviously subjective and set on a year to year basis, so for transparencies sake, these are the respective weak and strong opponents for each QB.

Nick Fitzgerald-
Strong = Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Florida, Iowa
Weak = Arkansas, Kansas State, Louisiana Tech, ULL, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Tommy Stevens-
Strong = Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, Kansas State
Weak = Arkansas, ULL, USM

Garrett Shrader-
Strong = Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU, Kansas State
Weak = Ole Miss, USM

vs Weak Opponents


Player
Completion%
YPG(pass)
TD(pass)
INT
Rating
YPG(rush)
YPC
TD(rush)


Fitz
58.5%
186.5
15
1
172.3
110.5
6.6
9


Stevens
70.7%
171
6
0
194.2
37.1
3.5
1


Shrader
68.0%
89.5
0
0
127.1
35
1.7
2



vs Strong Opponents


Player
Completion%
YPG(pass)
TD(pass)
INT
Rating
YPG(rush)
YPC
TD(rush)


Fitz
45.7%
108.1
1
8
73.5
76.3
3.8
4


Stevens
52.0%
64
1
5
75.2
27.8
4.1
1


Shrader
54.4%
158.5
7
5
124.4
81.3
5.9
3





So the two 5th year seniors beat up on inferior competition(21 TD to 1 INT), while doing the exact opposite against good opponents(2 TD to 13 INT) with a Rating in the 70s. This is what has everyone so worried about Moorhead's offense. It works(and was even designed), against weaker opponents, while being almost as bad as possible against strong opponents.

The true Freshman kid, on the other hand, did better against better opponents(7 TD to 5 INT) and had a rating of 124.4. Also, he had the highest rush yard per game and also yards per carry, by a noticeable chunk. This gives me a little hope going forward, and also just tells me that Shrader is a baller and will be up there with Dak as the best to throw the rock for the Maroon in White in our 100+ year history.


On a completely unrelated note, I found this little nugget while reading through all these stats in preparation for this post. Kylin Hill has had 473 touches in his 3 year career at Mississippi State, and amazingly, he has never lost a fumble. In fact, he only put the ball on the ground ONCE out of those 473 touches, only to recover it himself. We are gonna miss that dude, I hope he has a good career in the NFL, either way he's about to get paid.

[msstate7]

aTm total defense in 2018 = 32nd nationally
aTm total defense in 2019 = 31st nationally

aTm weak in 2018, but strong in 2019... LSU is 32nd nationally this year and "strong"

[DeviousDawg]

aTm total defense in 2018 = 32nd nationally
aTm total defense in 2019 = 31st nationally

aTm weak in 2018, but strong in 2019... LSU is 32nd nationally this year and "strong"

Refer to where I said "obviously subjective"

[msstate7]

Refer to where I said "obviously subjective"

So you just twist it to get results you want? You should say vs top 40/50 defenses and then vs outside that threshold

[RiverCityDawg]

Refer to where I said "obviously subjective"

Potentially very interesting analysis, but I do think you should do something like vs top 40 defense, or whatever ranking you choose to make it more objective. Good idea though.

[Todd4State]

So you just twist it to get results you want? You should say vs top 40/50 defenses and then vs outside that threshold

Says the expert in twisting stats.

[msstate7]

Says the expert in twisting stats.

Guess I know what to look for then

[DeviousDawg]

Look at it this way if you want. Here is each of the 3 QB's stats in wins(weak opponent) and in losses(strong opponent). Isn't it most of you that say anyway that Moorhead can't beat a team that is better than us? Well if that is so, then looking at it in wins vs losses should serve. If you don't like it, then go do the research your way and come back with your results.


Fitz-
https://i.ibb.co/6R19Wqr/fitz.jpg (https://ibb.co/nsndLK6)



Stevens-
https://i.ibb.co/BZ39ph9/tommy.jpg (https://ibb.co/584P0QP)



Shrader-

https://i.ibb.co/NZ1wWjN/shrader.jpg (https://ibb.co/ZWHyc8g)



You can look at it any way you want, and you can create some threshold for strong and weak opponents if you feel it is necessary. However, the differences in the stats are too night and day to make a difference in the big picture. Fitz and Tommy sucked against good teams, and were all-pro against bad teams. Shrader was good against bad teams, and clearly head and shoulders better against good teams than the two 5th year seniors. We can discuss and argue over the finer details(this is why I made the disclaimer in the OP), or we can look at the big picture and accept it for what it is, and discuss what it means or if it means anything at all.

[TrapGame]

The problem is the offense. Weak defenses are just that, weak. They lack the speed and athleticism to counter this offense. A strong defense with speed and superior athleticism will foil this offensive scheme every time. Joe uses the same player groupings and relies too much on post snap reads (that's the calculus equation the QB is working in his head). Even Stevens held onto the ball way too long with weaker defenses. How many times did ULL and KSU sack or hurry him? This offense will not work in the SEC. You can write it in blood. Joe has to improvise his schemes and start doing more of the unexpected (see Gus Malzahn for the latter.) to catch strong defenses off balance.

[msstate7]

I just think it's quite ridiculous you consider 2018 aTm a "weak" opponent. You knew what you were doing bc here's fitz's stats in that game...

14/22 (.636) 241 yds 2 td 0 int 185.66 rating
16 rushes 88 yds (5.5 per) 2 td

aTm was #32 nationally in total defense that includes a 7 OT game with LSU that skewed their stats. aTm finished #16 in final ap poll. Now why would you consider them "weak" other than to get results you want?

ETA...

S&p+ had aTm #12 in final 2018 overall and #21 defense

[DeviousDawg]

-Fitz and Stevens had 23 pass TD's to just 2 INT's and a rating of ~160 in wins.
-Fitz and Stevens had 2 pass TD's to 12 INT's and a rating of ~75 in losses(184 combined pass attempts).
-Shrader had 7 Pass TD's to 4 INT's and a rating of 127.1 in losses(103 pass attempts)

-In fact, Stevens and Fitz had a combined 5 total TD's(3 rush, 2 pass) in losses(304 snaps)
-Shrader had a combined 10 total TD's(3 rush, 7 pass) in losses(176 snaps)

Shall I go on? Sure, you can attribute a few of the discrepancies to this and that, but like I said, the ocean of difference is too wide and too deep to ignore.

[DeviousDawg]

I just think it's quite ridiculous you consider 2018 aTm a "weak" opponent. You knew what you were doing bc here's fitz's stats in that game...

14/22 (.636) 241 yds 2 td 0 int 185.66 rating
16 rushes 88 yds (5.5 per) 2 td

aTm was #32 nationally in total defense that includes a 7 OT game with LSU that skewed their stats. aTm finished #16 in final ap poll. Now why would you consider them "weak" other than to get results you want?

You got me and my agenda, hand cuff me officer. That one was a tough one, but there were only 2 groups, weak and strong. Last year when we played A&M I saw a weak team, which we beat handily in all aspects of the game, at the time that we played them, they were not a strong team, and that's my opinion. I see your point, but even if you throw that game into the strong pile for 2018, it will hardly change the big picture. If you can't see it then I don't know what to say.

[msstate7]

You got me and my agenda, hand cuff me officer. That one was a tough one, but there were only 2 groups, weak and strong. Last year when we played A&M I saw a weak team, which we beat handily in all aspects of the game, at the time that we played them, they were not a strong team, and that's my opinion. I see your point, but even if you throw that game into the strong pile for 2018, it will hardly change the big picture. If you can't see it then I don't know what to say.

2018 aTm goes 5-2 against your "strong" 2019 opponents. You really consider 2019 tenn, KSU, Kentucky, and aTm better than 2018 aTm? Seriously?

[bulldawg28]

So you just twist it to get results you want? You should say vs top 40/50 defenses and then vs outside that threshold

Truth

[Todd4State]

You got me and my agenda, hand cuff me officer. That one was a tough one, but there were only 2 groups, weak and strong. Last year when we played A&M I saw a weak team, which we beat handily in all aspects of the game, at the time that we played them, they were not a strong team, and that's my opinion. I see your point, but even if you throw that game into the strong pile for 2018, it will hardly change the big picture. If you can't see it then I don't know what to say.

It goes against his Fitz wasn’t the problem agenda.

What it shows me is Moorhead should have gone with Shrader instead of Tommy. And I like you am encouraged about Shrader’s future here at MSU. He’s only going to get better and better.

[msstate7]

It goes against his Fitz wasn?t the problem agenda.

What it shows me is Moorhead should have gone with Shrader instead of Tommy. And I like you am encouraged about Shrader?s future here at MSU. He?s only going to get better and better.

This offense is the problem vs teams with a pulse when the game is still being contested.

I love shrader, and I think he's gonna be damn good. Still don't think you should twist results to down someone else in order to prop him up

ETA... 2019 was gonna be so great to you bc we lost fitz... how'd that turn out?

[DeviousDawg]

2018 aTm goes 5-2 against your "strong" 2019 opponents. You really consider 2019 tenn, KSU, Kentucky, and aTm better than 2018 aTm? Seriously?

Here is the corrected data from the original post, just for Mr. Msstate7 himself.

Nick Fitzgerald-
Strong = Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Florida, Iowa,Texas A&M
Weak = Arkansas, Kansas State, Louisiana Tech, ULL, Ole Miss,

Tommy Stevens-
Strong = Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, Kansas State
Weak = Arkansas, ULL, USM

Garrett Shrader-
Strong = Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU, Kansas State
Weak = Ole Miss, USM

vs Weak Opponents


Player
Completion%
YPG(pass)
TD(pass)
INT
Rating
YPG(rush)
YPC
TD(rush)


Fitz
57.4%
175.6
13
1
169.6
115.0
6.8
7


Stevens
70.7%
171
6
0
194.2
37.1
3.5
1


Shrader
68.0%
89.5
0
0
127.1
35
1.7
2



vs Strong Opponents


Player
Completion%
YPG(pass)
TD(pass)
INT
Rating
YPG(rush)
YPC
TD(rush)


Fitz
48.0%
127.0
3
8
89.5
78.0
4.0
6


Stevens
52.0%
64
1
5
75.2
27.8
4.1
1


Shrader
54.4%
158.5
7
5
124.4
81.3
5.9
3




Now tell me, almighty king of arguments, does this change the argument? It's not the 54,000+ posts that people hate about u, it's what you say in 99% of them. It's garbage, never adds to the conversation, and more times than not, does the exact opposite. You have more posts than our average stadium attendance, and not a damn one of them has been worth a shit, ya little bitch. Do you not understand that I didn't post this to argue about who is a strong or weak opponent, not even close little man, I even stated that I knew it was subjective, meaning "I know you may disagree, but idgaf". Now get out of here unless you wanna talk about the topic of the thread, Jesus, this has been a long time coming. It's people like you that make society what it is today.

[msstate7]

Thanks

[DeviousDawg]

The main point, which has gone right over msstate7's head, is that it's undebatable Shrader(True Freshman) has been better than Fitz(5th year senior) and Tommy(5th year senior) against better opponents. It is very impressive when looking at their respective ages.

If you disagree(looking at you msstate7), do a little research, bring your counter argument and supporting facts to the table, and I will have a non-biased, mature conversation with you about the topic at hand. Hell, I may even agree with you. Otherwise, please quit blabbing your mouth.

[BeastMan]

Here is the corrected data from the original post, just for Mr. Msstate7 himself.

Nick Fitzgerald-
Strong = Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Florida, Iowa,Texas A&M
Weak = Arkansas, Kansas State, Louisiana Tech, ULL, Ole Miss,

Tommy Stevens-
Strong = Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, Kansas State
Weak = Arkansas, ULL, USM

Garrett Shrader-
Strong = Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU, Kansas State
Weak = Ole Miss, USM

vs Weak Opponents


Player
Completion%
YPG(pass)
TD(pass)
INT
Rating
YPG(rush)
YPC
TD(rush)


Fitz
57.4%
175.6
13
1
169.6
115.0
6.8
7


Stevens
70.7%
171
6
0
194.2
37.1
3.5
1


Shrader
68.0%
89.5
0
0
127.1
35
1.7
2



vs Strong Opponents


Player
Completion%
YPG(pass)
TD(pass)
INT
Rating
YPG(rush)
YPC
TD(rush)


Fitz
48.0%
127.0
3
8
89.5
78.0
4.0
6


Stevens
52.0%
64
1
5
75.2
27.8
4.1
1


Shrader
54.4%
158.5
7
5
124.4
81.3
5.9
3




Now tell me, almighty king of arguments, does this change the argument? It's not the 54,000+ posts that people hate about u, it's what you say in 99% of them. It's garbage, never adds to the conversation, and more times than not, does the exact opposite. You have more posts than our average stadium attendance, and not a damn one of them has been worth a shit, ya little bitch. Do you not understand that I didn't post this to argue about who is a strong or weak opponent, not even close little man, I even stated that I knew it was subjective, meaning "I know you may disagree, but idgaf". Now get out of here unless you wanna talk about the topic of the thread, Jesus, this has been a long time coming. It's people like you that make society what it is today.

Still tells the same story. Nice job with this Devious. I think the eye test said Shrader was better but this really puts some data behind in. It's certainly encouraging considering our program totally depends on Shrader making a bug jump from true freshman to sophomore.

[Commercecomet24]

Pretty good assessment. An 18 year old true freshman did a dang good job running the SloMo offense. If we can get Shrader a few more weapons the kid could be really special. He has a bright future! Good work DD!

[Travelingdawg]

Thanks DD I don?t post much, but I enjoy reading what you bring to the board.

[DeviousDawg]

The problem is the offense. Weak defenses are just that, weak. They lack the speed and athleticism to counter this offense. A strong defense with speed and superior athleticism will foil this offensive scheme every time. Joe uses the same player groupings and relies too much on post snap reads (that's the calculus equation the QB is working in his head). Even Stevens held onto the ball way too long with weaker defenses. How many times did ULL and KSU sack or hurry him? This offense will not work in the SEC. You can write it in blood. Joe has to improvise his schemes and start doing more of the unexpected (see Gus Malzahn for the latter.) to catch strong defenses off balance.

I agree with about 99% of this. This is me trying to find a silver lining or just a sliver of hope while we know that we are stuck with this BS for atleast another year. I am so far off the JoMo bandwagon that idk if there is anything he could do outside of winning 9-10 next year to get me to hop back on. Hate to say that, but it's true. I firmly believed that JoMo's offense will never work here against strong opponents, I've posted about it numerous times. Actually, I was looking into these stats to make a post about exactly that. I was going to show how bad our QB's and thus offense performs against strong opponents. Then I started to realize while looking through the numbers that Shrader was actually good in these games this year, which lead to this post.

[DeviousDawg]

I love shrader, and I think he's gonna be damn good. Still don't think you should twist results to down someone else in order to prop him up


This is the last thing I will say in response to msstate7, but I missed this little snippet from above and feel compelled to respond. I had no clue what agenda I could've possibly been pushing, but now I see. You truly believe that I posted all this to put down Nicky Fitz, while propping up Shrader? If so, that's your own paranoia and insecurities that caused you to believe that. What purpose would putting down one of the best QB's in MSU history serve? You can go back through all 500 something of my posts, I have never once posted or said anything negative or derogatory towards or about Nick Fitz. The fact of the matter is Nick was a great if not elite QB in Mullen's system, and then in his last year had to try to change everything under a new coach and scheme, that didn't fit his tool set. I got it, it wasn't his fault, I even felt bad for him because it lost him money, not to mention all the hell he must've gone through during the year, especially on social media. He busted his ass for State for 5 years, and I will always be grateful for his contributions to the Maroon and White legacy.

Propping Shrader up? No, just posting his stats and pointing out that he has been light years better than I would've thought off the top of my head against strong opponents. Even if I were attempting to falsely prop up Shrader, what's the crime in that, he is the future of this program, and this is a fan site. Usually, when people accuse people of some far fetched black ops agenda, it's because they themselves have done something similar.

Lastly, Nick, since I know you are reading this, I want to apologize. In absolutely no way was I trying to put you down. I was simply just trying to find a reason to be excited about the 2020 MSU Bulldog Football Team. You see, I am a fan, and I like to discuss things as a fan with other fans. When I posted your stats from last year, it was nothing personal, I was just simply using them as a tool of comparison.

P.S. same goes for you Tommy Touchdown.

[Pipedream]

I think there's some further context needed on Shraders showing against "strong opponents". A lot, if not most of those stats were accumulated in garbage time. He had some first half success vs LSU, but his Auburn and A&M passing success was basically all after the game was way out of hand. I think that's important to note.

[timotheus]

But we should all feel confident that we have Joe to mitigate things going further.*******

[bluelightstar]

I think there's some further context needed on Shraders showing against "strong opponents". A lot, if not most of those stats were accumulated in garbage time. He had some first half success vs LSU, but his Auburn and A&M passing success was basically all after the game was way out of hand. I think that's important to note.

Right. I remember our offense being just as inept until we were down 30.

[DeviousDawg]

I think there's some further context needed on Shraders showing against "strong opponents". A lot, if not most of those stats were accumulated in garbage time. He had some first half success vs LSU, but his Auburn and A&M passing success was basically all after the game was way out of hand. I think that's important to note.

This is a valid point, but what kept Fitz and Stevens from accumulating garbage time stats? Fitz(no disrespect my man)was a one man show last year, basically took every snap outside of the 1st game against an FCS opponent. Yet he only managed to rack up these statistics through our 5 losses in 2018.

(passing stats are from 134 pass attempts, rushing stats are from 93 rush attempts)
44.8% completion %
579 passing yards -> 115.7 ypg
263 rushing yards -> 52.6 ypg
842 all purpose yards -> 168.4 ypg
73.1 rating
7 interceptions
1 TD pass
2 rushing TD's
3 total TD's
18 points accounted for -> 3.6 ppg

The point is, yes, some of Shrader's stats may have come from when it didn't matter, but Fitz and Tommy(when healthy), both had those same opportunities. The main point, again, is you can debate how much better Shrader's stats were against good teams, but you can't debate that he was just a true freshman while Stevens and Fitz were BOTH 5th year seniors.

Future looks bright at QB with Shrader under center. We just have to find him some guys that can get open for him. He's gonna be a good one.

[bluelightstar]

This is a valid point, but what kept Fitz and Stevens from accumulating garbage time stats? Fitz(no disrespect my man)was a one man show last year, basically took every snap outside of the 1st game against an FCS opponent. Yet he only managed to rack up these statistics through our 5 losses in 2018.

(passing stats are from 134 pass attempts, rushing stats are from 93 rush attempts)
44.8% completion %
579 passing yards -> 115.7 ypg
263 rushing yards -> 52.6 ypg
842 all purpose yards -> 168.4 ypg
73.1 rating
7 interceptions
1 TD pass
2 rushing TD's
3 total TD's
18 points accounted for -> 3.6 ppg

The point is, yes, some of Shrader's stats may have come from when it didn't matter, but Fitz and Tommy(when healthy), both had those same opportunities. The main point, again, is you can debate how much better Shrader's stats were against good teams, but you can't debate that he was just a true freshman while Stevens and Fitz were BOTH 5th year seniors.

Future looks bright at QB with Shrader under center. We just have to find him some guys that can get open for him. He's gonna be a good one.

In fairness, our defense was so good in 2018 that we had very little garbage time. Arguably against Alabama and LSU, but that would be it. Kentucky got away from us in about the last 4 or 5 minutes,

[msstate7]

This is a valid point, but what kept Fitz and Stevens from accumulating garbage time stats? Fitz(no disrespect my man)was a one man show last year, basically took every snap outside of the 1st game against an FCS opponent. Yet he only managed to rack up these statistics through our 5 losses in 2018.

(passing stats are from 134 pass attempts, rushing stats are from 93 rush attempts)
44.8% completion %
579 passing yards -> 115.7 ypg
263 rushing yards -> 52.6 ypg
842 all purpose yards -> 168.4 ypg
73.1 rating
7 interceptions
1 TD pass
2 rushing TD's
3 total TD's
18 points accounted for -> 3.6 ppg

The point is, yes, some of Shrader's stats may have come from when it didn't matter, but Fitz and Tommy(when healthy), both had those same opportunities. The main point, again, is you can debate how much better Shrader's stats were against good teams, but you can't debate that he was just a true freshman while Stevens and Fitz were BOTH 5th year seniors.

Future looks bright at QB with Shrader under center. We just have to find him some guys that can get open for him. He's gonna be a good one.

What were the garbage time spots last year? Almost every game was contested in the 4th. Auburn was over in the first 5 mins and aTm was over at halftime this year

[TrapGame]

I agree with about 99% of this. This is me trying to find a silver lining or just a sliver of hope while we know that we are stuck with this BS for atleast another year. I am so far off the JoMo bandwagon that idk if there is anything he could do outside of winning 9-10 next year to get me to hop back on. Hate to say that, but it's true. I firmly believed that JoMo's offense will never work here against strong opponents, I've posted about it numerous times. Actually, I was looking into these stats to make a post about exactly that. I was going to show how bad our QB's and thus offense performs against strong opponents. Then I started to realize while looking through the numbers that Shrader was actually good in these games this year, which lead to this post.

Joe could win a lot of people over if he shows he's the offensive guru he's lauded to be. Revamp that offense for who you have. Throw in some trick plays and weird formations. Shrader will be a bright spot next season. But I'm afraid Joe will get him killed against the good defenses trying to bang that square peg into that round hole.

In my opinion, 2018 was Joe's big time chance to show the college football world he was a coach to watch out for. He was given a ready made team handed to him. After the Kentucky game his offense should have been scraped. At that time Joe and his offensive coaches are putting together a simple yet effective offense around strengths of the players. I think Hud and Johnson were pushing this after the Florida debacle but Joe is a hard headed sum bitch that believes his offense is perfect.

[msstate7]

Shrader was 30th in QBR this season. He was a bright spot. I really hope it's his show in Nashville. With that said, I do think he benefitted from some garbage time.

[Turfdawg67]

Refer to where I said "obviously subjective"

He mad cause LSU shut down his pick for SEC Champion and made his man-crush, Jake Fromm, look pretty pedestrian.

[msstate7]

He mad cause LSU shut down his pick for SEC Champion and made his man-crush, Jake Fromm, look pretty pedestrian.

LSU wasn't the only one to shut my boy jake down. He had a rough year

[Turfdawg67]

This is the last thing I will say in response to msstate7, but I missed this little snippet from above and feel compelled to respond. I had no clue what agenda I could've possibly been pushing, but now I see. You truly believe that I posted all this to put down Nicky Fitz, while propping up Shrader? If so, that's your own paranoia and insecurities that caused you to believe that. What purpose would putting down one of the best QB's in MSU history serve? You can go back through all 500 something of my posts, I have never once posted or said anything negative or derogatory towards or about Nick Fitz. The fact of the matter is Nick was a great if not elite QB in Mullen's system, and then in his last year had to try to change everything under a new coach and scheme, that didn't fit his tool set. I got it, it wasn't his fault, I even felt bad for him because it lost him money, not to mention all the hell he must've gone through during the year, especially on social media. He busted his ass for State for 5 years, and I will always be grateful for his contributions to the Maroon and White legacy.

Propping Shrader up? No, just posting his stats and pointing out that he has been light years better than I would've thought off the top of my head against strong opponents. Even if I were attempting to falsely prop up Shrader, what's the crime in that, he is the future of this program, and this is a fan site. Usually, when people accuse people of some far fetched black ops agenda, it's because they themselves have done something similar.

Lastly, Nick, since I know you are reading this, I want to apologize. In absolutely no way was I trying to put you down. I was simply just trying to find a reason to be excited about the 2020 MSU Bulldog Football Team. You see, I am a fan, and I like to discuss things as a fan with other fans. When I posted your stats from last year, it was nothing personal, I was just simply using them as a tool of comparison.

P.S. same goes for you Tommy Touchdown.

If he has to go back through your 500 pretty damn awesome posts, then it'd be only fair for you to go through his 58,000 posts!

[dawgday166]

This is a valid point, but what kept Fitz and Stevens from accumulating garbage time stats? Fitz(no disrespect my man)was a one man show last year, basically took every snap outside of the 1st game against an FCS opponent. Yet he only managed to rack up these statistics through our 5 losses in 2018.

(passing stats are from 134 pass attempts, rushing stats are from 93 rush attempts)
44.8% completion %
579 passing yards -> 115.7 ypg
263 rushing yards -> 52.6 ypg
842 all purpose yards -> 168.4 ypg
73.1 rating
7 interceptions
1 TD pass
2 rushing TD's
3 total TD's
18 points accounted for -> 3.6 ppg

The point is, yes, some of Shrader's stats may have come from when it didn't matter, but Fitz and Tommy(when healthy), both had those same opportunities. The main point, again, is you can debate how much better Shrader's stats were against good teams, but you can't debate that he was just a true freshman while Stevens and Fitz were BOTH 5th year seniors.

Future looks bright at QB with Shrader under center. We just have to find him some guys that can get open for him. He's gonna be a good one.

There's a difference between Fitz and the other 2. The whole fanbase was on Fitz' ass for it being his fault last year. Sure didn't help his confidence none prior to AU or LSU games. I honestly thought he may not ever recover from that, but he did bounce back against TAM. This year the whole fanbase was on Joe's ass, not the QBs. Joe didn't take that too well. Fitz handled it much better IMO outside of maybe a couple of tweets from what I've heard.

I replayed 2018 Ky and FL games several time in slo mo too. Fitz played pretty well in those 2 games (about almost 3/4 of Ky game) but there were a lot of penalties, drops, and ole' blocks (where he got killed) in those 2 games. No adjustment by O staff to block Allen in Ky game either. Just straight shot to leveling Fitz on every pass play. Same thing happened in FL game.

I'm looking at our 6 losses this year and Shrader is 49.5% completion percentage. Tommy is 52% in 4 losses he played in.

In 2017 Fitz was 59.5% against everyone excluding his 3 losses Georgia, AU, and Bama. Fitz didn't get to pad his stats against OM or Louisville (Peter Sirmon D) either. Georgia was 6 in Total D/8 in passing D. AU was 14 total/18 passing , Bama was 1 total/6 passing.

BTW ... LSU in 2017 was in the everyone but the losses category (59.5%). They were 12 total defense/21 passing.

Just some quick numbers I ran. Not saying Fitz is a world beater but he's better than folks give him credit for. Another year under Mullen and I think he would've improved even more. Aeris starting and blocking for him under Mullen would've helped too.

Not sure yet Joe can develop QBs. We'll see.

[RougeDawg]

Good post DD. Just think that a true freshman was able to produce as much as he did with a bottom 3 SEC WR group. If we just upgrade this group marginally, he should show more improvement than the usual progression with experience.

[tcdog70]

I'll take Fitz---maybe GS next year. But Fitz last year was better than GS this year.. don't need stats--I've seen enough football --don't need garbage time stats I hope GS turns into the best QB is Dog history.

[Coach34]

Way too much arguing in this thread over the obvious.

JoVester's O has been great vs garbage teams
JoVester's O has been Croom level vs decent defenses
Shrader was a bright spot this year

That's what his post said and it's 100% true.

We should roll in the bowl game. We will fight like hell to win 6 in 2020. Go kick rocks. Peace out bitches!!

[confucius say]

I just think it's quite ridiculous you consider 2018 aTm a "weak" opponent. You knew what you were doing bc here's fitz's stats in that game...

14/22 (.636) 241 yds 2 td 0 int 185.66 rating
16 rushes 88 yds (5.5 per) 2 td

aTm was #32 nationally in total defense that includes a 7 OT game with LSU that skewed their stats. aTm finished #16 in final ap poll. Now why would you consider them "weak" other than to get results you want?

ETA...

S&p+ had aTm #12 in final 2018 overall and #21 defense

Which is why, in defense of joe, I told yall just last week how good of a win that was vs Aggie in 2018 and I was brushed off. That team beats us in 2018 and they are 9-3 and in a NY6 bowl game, or at worst, the citrus bc they would have been ahead of 9-3 KY via their win over KY. That was a legit, big win.

[Todd4State]

This offense is the problem vs teams with a pulse when the game is still being contested.

I love shrader, and I think he's gonna be damn good. Still don't think you should twist results to down someone else in order to prop him up

ETA... 2019 was gonna be so great to you bc we lost fitz... how'd that turn out?

I said this where? I believe if I did predict anything it was 8 wins. And probably should have happened and I certainly have criticized Joe for not making it happen- losing to K-State and Tennessee specifically.

I said that the passing game would be improved- and that happened. So I guess it turned out OK.

And I'm not twisting any results. I'm responding to the post.

And as far as the down someone to prop someone up comment- you're doing the exact same thing except you're doing it to Joe. So don't go high and mighty because the guy you liked spent too much time going to beauty pageants and was late to meetings in the offseason. And I'm not supporting Joe or saying that none of this is his fault. Just that you're being hypocritical at best.

The truth about Fitz is while no- not EVERY thing was his fault- there was definitely some fault on his part too. He literally never improved as a passer under Dan either. Of course if Dan could adjust his offense better we should have had Gardner Minchew and I can guarantee you that last year is a LOT different.

The other truth here is that Joe will get a third year and he will have his QB who is not a freshman and is presumably healthy. He will get a chance to show what he can do whether we like it or not. And if he doesn't he'll be gone IMO.

[Pipedream]

This is a valid point, but what kept Fitz and Stevens from accumulating garbage time stats? Fitz(no disrespect my man)was a one man show last year, basically took every snap outside of the 1st game against an FCS opponent. Yet he only managed to rack up these statistics through our 5 losses in 2018.

(passing stats are from 134 pass attempts, rushing stats are from 93 rush attempts)
44.8% completion %
579 passing yards -> 115.7 ypg
263 rushing yards -> 52.6 ypg
842 all purpose yards -> 168.4 ypg
73.1 rating
7 interceptions
1 TD pass
2 rushing TD's
3 total TD's
18 points accounted for -> 3.6 ppg

The point is, yes, some of Shrader's stats may have come from when it didn't matter, but Fitz and Tommy(when healthy), both had those same opportunities. The main point, again, is you can debate how much better Shrader's stats were against good teams, but you can't debate that he was just a true freshman while Stevens and Fitz were BOTH 5th year seniors.

Future looks bright at QB with Shrader under center. We just have to find him some guys that can get open for him. He's gonna be a good one.

No real excuse for Stevens other than injury. He was KO'd vs Aub, LSU, A&M, & KSU. Fitz had very little, if any garbage time in his games last year. Last 5 mins of UK, Last 7 mins of LSU, last quarter of Bama. That's about it as far as garbage time vs quality opponents. I'm not attempting to disparage Shrader, just providing the proper context for the discussion. Most of our success on offense against good opponents came after the game was already decided.

[Schultzy]

Good post DD. Just think that a true freshman was able to produce as much as he did with a bottom 3 SEC WR group. If we just upgrade this group marginally, he should show more improvement than the usual progression with experience.
Bottom 3 in all of P5 in 2018 and 2019...I wonder if his offense can work with middle of the pack SEC WR's. And get some damn tempo.

Devious with very nice work here, it shows he's a gamer and that the team responds to him which is reason for encouragement.

Now if we can just get some receivers to pan out at an SEC level.

[KentuckyDawg13]

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/b6/b6b5bb26dc95f49cba7f10ae320eed452381af8c5aa2bfd675 a741fa079fe60a.jpg

[BB30]

Shrader has a chance to be pretty special. It will be fun watching him, I just hope we don't waste him over the next couple of years. He certainly has that swagger about him that you want in a QB. He commanded the offense much better and we seemed to flow a bit better when he was in. Hopefully he will get the start in the bowl game.