Poll - chance that State covers - 20.5

[cheewgumm]

6%

[TaleofTwoDogs]

+6%? A little to optimistic for me. More like -6%.

[wild_dawg]

I put it at about 35-40%, I think we'll score some points. Saban won't let up with the playoff situation so he won't mind running it up.

[Cloak]

50/50. Vegas is pretty damn good

[PMDawg]

1%

[HancockCountyDog]

This won't be popular on here - but of course we can cover.

If our guys come out ready to play we should actually keep it relatively close. I think we should be able to run the ball on Bama. This is not your usual Bama defense, we can move the ball against them if we get Kylin the ball in space and keep our QB as a running threat.

I've watched most of Bama's games this year and I'm not really that impressed with them. They have the best WR's in the country - no doubt, but beyond that I don't see a Bama defender other than Terrell Lewis that concerns me.

[KentuckyDawg13]

85%
MSU 33 bama 41

[parabrave]

This won't be popular on here - but of course we can cover.

If our guys come out ready to play we should actually keep it relatively close. I think we should be able to run the ball on Bama. This is not your usual Bama defense, we can move the ball against them if we get Kylin the ball in space and keep our QB as a running threat.

I've watched most of Bama's games this year and I'm not really that impressed with them. They have the best WR's in the country - no doubt, but beyond that I don't see a Bama defender other than Terrell Lewis that concerns me.

This isn't Arkansas defense.

[Churchill]

We got inadvertently screwed when the playoff rankings came out last night leaving the door so wide open for those bastards. Basically if they beat the shit out of everybody they play from here out..they're in. Saban has thrived on this scenario in the past. We won't cover.

[confucius say]

How healthy is tua?

[DeputyDawg94]

15% we cover. Those WRs will have a field day considering the limited pressure we get on QBs. Prolly a 35 point loss because Saban needs style points now.

[msstatelp1]

<5%

[DownwardDawg]

70% we cover.

[DogsofAnarchy]

We have NO shot of covering.

[cheewgumm]

The line is 18 now. People are betting on State!!!

[msudawglb]

The line is 18 now. People are betting on State!!!

Saban said today that Tua was a game time decision. He's still got soreness in his ankle from the LSU game.

[Cowbell]

I’m just glad that some of you guys are going to be brought back into reality after Saturday.

[Irondawg]

Tua plays and I think we lose by 20 easily. He doesn't it will be closer but I really don't see how we are going to slow them down - we'll need to score 24-28 to keep it within 20 unless they fumble 4 times

[timotheus]

They can whip us and never throw a pass......

[dantheman4248]

Alabama after a loss since 2008:
2008 L 31-17 vs. Utah
2010 W 23-10 vs. Ole Miss
2010 W 30-10 vs. MSU
2010 W 49-7 vs. fakeMSU
2011 W 24-7 @ MSU
2012 W 49-0 vs. Western Carolina
2013 L 45-31 vs. OU
2014 W 14-13 @ Arkansas
2015 W 34-0 vs. ULM
2017 W 24-6 vs Clemson

All that to say they've never beaten an sec team by 20.5 or more the week after a loss since Saban has been in charge there. (didn't count 2007 as they had 6 losses and didn't want to skew what actual Saban teams look like by adding 4 more losses after a loss.)

[Johnson85]

70% we cover.

The line looks stupid to me, and usually when that happens this late in the season, it ends up being a sucker bet.

I'm still going to put my money on Bama to cover; -28 or -30 seem more reasonable to me than -19. But I'm only doing that because I refuse to learn my lesson. If I would learn my lesson, I would recognize that if the line looks that off from what I think it should be, it's because I don't understand something and I should just stay away.

[cheewgumm]

Johnson85, I feel EXACTLY the same but I?m gonna bet it. I think they are going to beat us badly. I?ve seen this movie many many many times.

[msstate7]

The line looks stupid to me, and usually when that happens this late in the season, it ends up being a sucker bet.

I'm still going to put my money on Bama to cover; -28 or -30 seem more reasonable to me than -19. But I'm only doing that because I refuse to learn my lesson. If I would learn my lesson, I would recognize that if the line looks that off from what I think it should be, it's because I don't understand something and I should just stay away.

We've had a lot of stupid lines all year imo. I thought auburn, aTm, and LSU were free money, but I don't bet against us for some stupid reason. We did come close to beating spread against LSU though bc we score some after games are decided.

[Johnson85]

Alabama after a loss since 2008:
2008 L 31-17 vs. Utah
2010 W 23-10 vs. Ole Miss
2010 W 30-10 vs. MSU
2010 W 49-7 vs. fakeMSU
2011 W 24-7 @ MSU
2012 W 49-0 vs. Western Carolina
2013 L 45-31 vs. OU
2014 W 14-13 @ Arkansas
2015 W 34-0 vs. ULM
2017 W 24-6 vs Clemson

All that to say they've never beaten an sec team by 20.5 or more the week after a loss since Saban has been in charge there. (didn't count 2007 as they had 6 losses and didn't want to skew what actual Saban teams look like by adding 4 more losses after a loss.)

So, they've failed to do that in 4 opportunities over the past eleven years? Sounds kind of like leading the team in 7th inning doubles in the month of May.

Two of those opportunities were in 2010, when they lost 3 regular season games, which is the only time they done that at Alabama other than his first year (and he hasn't lost 3 even including the post season any other year). I'm thinking maybe 2010 Alabama just wasn't that good compared to Saban's other Bama teams.

2011 was the 9-6 game, just a different level of physicality than this past week, and a much lower scoring Bama team in general.

[Johnson85]

Johnson85, I feel EXACTLY the same but I?m gonna bet it. I think they are going to beat us badly. I?ve seen this movie many many many times.

Cheers to continued stupidity! We can come back here and lick our wounds after MSU inexplicably plays hard and keeps it "close", before getting a 4th quarter garbage TD to only lose by 18.

[msstate7]

Cheers to continued stupidity! We can come back here and lick our wounds after MSU inexplicably plays hard and keeps it "close", before getting a 4th quarter garbage TD to only lose by 18.

It's Bama -20.5 at golden moon if you want an extra 1.5 points

[dantheman4248]

So, they've failed to do that in 4 opportunities over the past eleven years? Sounds kind of like leading the team in 7th inning doubles in the month of May.

Two of those opportunities were in 2010, when they lost 3 regular season games, which is the only time they done that at Alabama other than his first year (and he hasn't lost 3 even including the post season any other year). I'm thinking maybe 2010 Alabama just wasn't that good compared to Saban's other Bama teams.

2011 was the 9-6 game, just a different level of physicality than this past week, and a much lower scoring Bama team in general.

It's really to counterpoint the narrative that Bama comes out after a loss and blows people out to impress the committee. They haven't had an impressive blowout win immediately following a loss. Especially not when in playoff contention.

[Johnson85]

It's really to counterpoint the narrative that Bama comes out after a loss and blows people out to impress the committee. They haven't had an impressive blowout win immediately following a loss. Especially not when in playoff contention.

That probably is an overblown point, but at the same time, I'm not sure Bama teams prior to the last couple of years were really built to do that. Being more dialed in after a blowout would probably be their defense tightening up and their offense being more efficient in the running game. This year and last are probably the first years they've really been set up as a team where being dialed in would be more likely to end up in the offense unloading.

[Memphisbulldog]

6%


You guys do understand don't you that the definition of a point spread put out by Vegas is that half of the people will bet on each side of the bet. I know Vegas is not always right but they have to average being right to make a profit. They need half the people to bet each side so that they are not taking a risk; that they are only making the percentage built in. That being said, the chance of us covering should be 50%. Those of you saying it will much less either are very pessimistic or don't know how the betting line works. I don't have an opinion of which side is the best best. I'm just clarifying this for all.

[Cowbell]

Johnson85, I feel EXACTLY the same but I?m gonna bet it. I think they are going to beat us badly. I?ve seen this movie many many many times.

And you will again if we keep Joe

[msstate7]

We've faced 7 teams this year with a record at .500 or better. Of those 7 teams, we're 1-6 ATS (usm is the only win). We've faced 2 teams with a record below .500. We're 2-0 ATS in those games. What's bama's record?

[cheewgumm]

You guys do understand don't you that the definition of a point spread put out by Vegas is that half of the people will bet on each side of the bet. I know Vegas is not always right but they have to average being right to make a profit. They need half the people to bet each side so that they are not taking a risk; that they are only making the percentage built in. That being said, the chance of us covering should be 50%. Those of you saying it will much less either are very pessimistic or don't know how the betting line works. I don't have an opinion of which side is the best best. I'm just clarifying this for all.

Hey Menphisbulldog, I do understand that. I don't think that because 50% of the people bet that we will cover means that it has a 50% chance of happening as you outline (if that is what you mean by "That being said, the chance of us covering should be 50%"). It just mean that 50% of the people "think" it will happen. I think this line reprents an opportunity when the line is wrong and you can take advantage. However, I could be wrong. WE'll see on Saturday. I bet on it.

[Fader21]

Not only are we going to cover. We are going to win!

[Cowbell]

What are the odds on this thread getting bumped before joe has his post game presser?

[cheewgumm]

The TutuorGate people are NOT playing, so, no Willie Gay or Autry.

Ha, it may get bumped. If I'm wrong, its ok. I don't bet a lot of $.

[Okrastar1]

2% 47-17 Bammers

[Johnson85]

You guys do understand don't you that the definition of a point spread put out by Vegas is that half of the people will bet on each side of the bet. I know Vegas is not always right but they have to average being right to make a profit. They need half the people to bet each side so that they are not taking a risk; that they are only making the percentage built in. That being said, the chance of us covering should be 50%. Those of you saying it will much less either are very pessimistic or don't know how the betting line works. I don't have an opinion of which side is the best best. I'm just clarifying this for all.

the spread that 50% of people think we will cover (or really, that 50% of the money thinks we will cover) does not equal the spread that we have a 50% chance of covering.

There are enough smart and motivated and well financed people betting that they will usually be close, especially this late in the season, but they're not the same thing. I assume that a lot of money is looking at some model or some statistics that would indicate that we are much better positioned for this game than it would appear to the casual viewer, but it is hard to guess what it is.

[Coach34]

We had 6 points vs LSU with 3 minutes left in the 4th Q.

I dont think we cover whether Tua plays or not

[dantheman4248]

We had 6 points vs LSU with 3 minutes left in the 4th Q.

I dont think we cover whether Tua plays or not

Are you saying Bama's D is better than LSU?

[Mjoelner34]

If Tua plays, 0%. 55-10.

If Tua doesn't play, 0%. 41-10.

[Coach34]

Are you saying Bama's D is better than LSU?

No. I'm saying we will score late on them just as we did on LSU and get to 17. Only got to 13 on LSU

[Liverpooldawg]

0%

[WSOPdawg]

POLL: Chance that State covers the 20.5... 6%

Ummm, about as good as Fred Smoot in the Finals of the National Quiet Game imo.

[Homedawg]

Alabama after a loss since 2008:
2008 L 31-17 vs. Utah
2010 W 23-10 vs. Ole Miss
2010 W 30-10 vs. MSU
2010 W 49-7 vs. fakeMSU
2011 W 24-7 @ MSU
2012 W 49-0 vs. Western Carolina
2013 L 45-31 vs. OU
2014 W 14-13 @ Arkansas
2015 W 34-0 vs. ULM
2017 W 24-6 vs Clemson

All that to say they've never PLAYED a JOMO COACHED TEAM the week after a loss since Saban has been in charge there. (didn't count 2007 as they had 6 losses and didn't want to skew what actual Saban teams look like by adding 4 more losses after a loss.)

FIFY

[CJDAWG85]

Why is our line down to 17.5?

[dantheman4248]

Why is our line down to 17.5?

Bama's defense is the most trash it's been under Saban.
Injuries galore there. Something 4 or 5 true freshmen starting on defense.
Even our WRs can cook DB Surtain
Their QB is a gametime decision
Bama always plays like trash in Starkville (for their standard)
It's an 11am kickoff

But no one here wants to take into account the numerous problems bama has. It's JoMo is trash and Stevens is scared.

Here's some thoughts on us:
The game is at home.
Stevens is healthy.
Bama defense is scaring nobody right now. (well maybe ark) I honestly don't know if they are a defense "with a pulse"
And this is a great opportunity for Joe. Pull off this 0% chance or at least field an offense capable of competing and he can silence some critics and buy another year with the injury excuse.

But no one wants anyone to look at why it could possibility go right. Most here have quit. I said after aTm he had to win our to get me back on board. 1 down. 4 to go. I'm gonna enjoy the rare instance bama is floundering and maybe we have a bad coach put it together for one game against a top 5 team at home at 11 am for the Veterans Day game a la Peter Sirmon 2016 vs. aTm.

[TALL DAWG]

Bama's defense is the most trash it's been under Saban.
Injuries galore there. Something 4 or 5 true freshmen starting on defense.
Even our WRs can cook DB Surtain
Their QB is a gametime decision
Bama always plays like trash in Starkville (for their standard)
It's an 11am kickoff

But no one here wants to take into account the numerous problems bama has. It's JoMo is trash and Stevens is scared.

Here's some thoughts on us:
The game is at home.
Stevens is healthy.
Bama defense is scaring nobody right now. (well maybe ark) I honestly don't know if they are a defense "with a pulse"
And this is a great opportunity for Joe. Pull off this 0% chance or at least field an offense capable of competing and he can silence some critics and buy another year with the injury excuse.

But no one wants anyone to look at why it could possibility go right. Most here have quit. I said after aTm he had to win our to get me back on board. 1 down. 4 to go. I'm gonna enjoy the rare instance bama is floundering and maybe we have a bad coach put it together for one game against a top 5 team at home at 11 am for the Veterans Day game a la Peter Sirmon 2016 vs. aTm.

Correct.
And, any team who plays 5-6 true freshman(not red shirts) on D, sometimes at the SAME TIME, in the SEC is not going to be great.

[msstate7]

I'd take their true freshmen on defense with their coaching staff vs our upperclassmen under Moorhead any day. They're gonna bend us over. Y'all need to stop

[shannondawg]

Let me preface this by saying I don't watch shit head Finebaum, but in turning on my tv the sec channel was on from the night before.

He was saying maybe that Saban's treatment of asst coaches may have come to haunt him and he has not been able to get a good coordinators lately. After that I don't know what the call in necks had to say as I changed channels.

[cheewgumm]

This game is a matter of motivation. Rarely do we play BAmA when they are motivated. That will be different on Saturday as they need to score a lot and beat us badly:

I?d consider it a win for Moorhead if he keeps it within 21.

[BB30]

I'd take their true freshmen on defense with their coaching staff vs our upperclassmen under Moorhead any day. They're gonna bend us over. Y'all need to stop

Wouldn't matter who our coach was this weekend. Our defense is a shell of itself with guys banged up and the tutorgate players not playing. Those WRs are going to have a field day and would regardless of who is coaching.

[Madisonmd]

We will cover

[dantheman4248]

I'd take their true freshmen on defense with their coaching staff vs our upperclassmen under Moorhead any day. They're gonna bend us over. Y'all need to stop

He asked why the line was moving down and I gave the reasons. People outside of here are looking more than surface deep. Moorhead is up against a wall and this is his last real shot to get off of it and silence a bunch of critics this year. He got off the wall for Auburn and for aTm last year. Not saying he will, not saying we should win. Simply stating the other side of the argument to "Moorhead sucks / we're too injured."