Outlook on the rest of the season

[Cowbeller]

I know the Kansas State loss hurts a lot, but I don't think the season is lost. I feel realistically we can go 9-3. Our team can win against A&M and Auburn and what stops us from that. Even if we do split those games I love playing LSU and Bama as underdawgs in this day and age of Mississippi State football. Just wondering yalls thoughts.

[Jack Lambert]

I am as positive as they come but it is a tall order to get to 9 wins. Yes we can if we upset one team we are not suppose to and win the bowl game. I think beating A&M is possible. We have beaten them three years in a roll while being the underdog. I am not saying we can't beat Auburn or LSU because it is always possible. I think A&M is our best shot at a up set.

[Tbonewannabe]

I think there is a chance to upset Auburn and A&M, and a very slight chance to beat LSU. All of those games are going to require us to win the turnover battle big because our defense isn't good enough to stop them very often especially if we are sitting either Gay or Autry. We also can't afford to have Dantzler sitting on the sideline while a freshman is taking his spot even if Emerson or Jarrian Jones are very good freshmen.

Bottom line is to win those games, we are either going to have to outcoach the other team like Joe did Auburn last year, have players play their best games, or a combination of both. The thing about those teams is the margin for error is so small. You can't afford to throw an Int or fumble the ball when you are about to score like we did UK. A 14 point swing like that can kill your chances of an upset.

[CadaverDawg]

I hate our matchup with Auburn.

They have a DL that can compete with, and probably beat our OL in the trenches, and we know they will be able to run the ball on our DL. Combine that with it being a True Freshman QB in his first road game, at night....I just hope we can be competitive. Not trying to sound defeatist, I just don't think we matchup well. If we lose by 14 or less I'll actually be somewhat encouraged probably

[Cowbeller]

This is why we have to play gay and Autry. Cant see it if we sit them.

I think there is a chance to upset Auburn and A&M, and a very slight chance to beat LSU. All of those games are going to require us to win the turnover battle big because our defense isn't good enough to stop them very often especially if we are sitting either Gay or Autry. We also can't afford to have Dantzler sitting on the sideline while a freshman is taking his spot even if Emerson or Jarrian Jones are very good freshmen.

[Cowbeller]

I see your point but I see some breakout performances from our DL that will hold them back and maybe Joe will call a decent game keeping us close.
I hate our matchup with Auburn.

They have a DL that can compete with, and probably beat our OL in the trenches, and we know they will be able to run the ball on our DL. Combine that with it being a True Freshman QB in his first road game, at night....I just hope we can be competitive. Not trying to sound defeatist, I just don't think we matchup well. If we lose by 14 or less I'll actually be somewhat encouraged probably

[dantheman4248]

Moorhead has to steer into the skid even more this week with the RTGDFB approach for us to have a chance. (That means no series of downs where we throw 3 passes). Play ball control, be physical all night. Don’t shy away from the run even if we give up a score or two. Wear out the defense. On the flip side we have to hope that loading the box can cause them to attempt more passes than they should. They also have a true freshman QB who isn’t there as a QB yet. Bait them into throwing it and hope he doesn’t make us pay.

If we can keep them under 20 we have a shot. If Tommy plays and is healthy we’ll learn a lot about what this Koorhead offense can really do.

[sleepy dawg]

I hate our matchup with Auburn.

They have a DL that can compete with, and probably beat our OL in the trenches, and we know they will be able to run the ball on our DL. Combine that with it being a True Freshman QB in his first road game, at night....I just hope we can be competitive. Not trying to sound defeatist, I just don't think we matchup well. If we lose by 14 or less I'll actually be somewhat encouraged probably

I agree with this completely. I feel like Auburn is our 2nd hardest game left based on matchups. Winning in Auburn for us will be harder than winning at home against LSU just based on how those teams and ours are structured at this point.

[TNDawg35]

I let Willie play this game but not Autry. I save Autry for A&M and OM. I think we have a better shot against A&M and everyone wants to play OM....

[BrunswickDawg]

Moorhead has to steer into the skid even more this week with the RTGDFB approach for us to have a chance. (That means no series of downs where we throw 3 passes). Play ball control, be physical all night. Don’t shy away from the run even if we give up a score or two. Wear out the defense. On the flip side we have to hope that loading the box can cause them to attempt more passes than they should. They also have a true freshman QB who isn’t there as a QB yet. Bait them into throwing it and hope he doesn’t make us pay.

If we can keep them under 20 we have a shot. If Tommy plays and is healthy we’ll learn a lot about what this Koorhead offense can really do.

Interestingly - we are 2nd in the SEC in Time of Possession right now.

[Johnson85]

Our season is not lost, but you need to be thinking 7 wins as our "minimum" at this point, and if we get to 8, be pleased with how the season has turned out from this point forward. IF there were no suspensions, I think we would have several opportunities to "steal a game", with Bama being the only game we realistically can't win. With the suspensions, I'm just not sure we have a chance against Auburn, LSU, or A&M. You need playmakers to make plays to pull upsets, and we will be down our best playmaker on defense and our best DT. That's asking a hell of a lot out of our offense to manage an upset under those conditions.

ETA: to correct A&M instead of Bama reference

[Todd4State]

6-6 is our floor if we get upset again, likely 7-5 or 8-4, with 9-3 probably as our realistic ceiling.

[TrapGame]

I hate our matchup with Auburn.

They have a DL that can compete with, and probably beat our OL in the trenches, and we know they will be able to run the ball on our DL. Combine that with it being a True Freshman QB in his first road game, at night....I just hope we can be competitive. Not trying to sound defeatist, I just don't think we matchup well. If we lose by 14 or less I'll actually be somewhat encouraged probably

Yep. That's about where I'm at. I'd love to see Shrader go off and have one hell of a night passing and rushing. Hopefully we can keep it close until the 4th quarter.

[Cooterpoot]

We aren?t winning 9 games. Ceiling is 8, floor is 5. 7 wins likely.

[basedog]

Auburn plays fast, Msu plays slower, this is where we have to slow thing down. Speed kills and Auburn has speed. Hopefully our offense is able to move the ball and score. Field position once again is very important.

[Jarius]

If we can’t beat Arkansas and Tennessee without our suspended players then I really do not care if we go to a bowl game or not. I mean I know it’s a long shot but damn we are 1-0 in the sec. Let’s not quit until it’s at least time to quit. Who gives a shit if we go 6-6 or 7-5? Ole Miss is the only game that we should win without the suspended players where we should play them anyway.

[MetEdDawg]

We aren?t winning 9 games. Ceiling is 8, floor is 5. 7 wins likely.

If we win only 5 fire Moorhead. We have Tennessee, Abilene Christian, Ole Miss, and Arkansas left. We beat ACU. I'm a big Joe supporter but other than us not having a QB or losing 5-6 starters between now and then, we should not go 1-2 against Tennessee, Arkansas, and OM.

[Cooterpoot]

If we win only 5 fire Moorhead. We have Tennessee, Abilene Christian, Ole Miss, and Arkansas left. We beat ACU. I'm a big Joe supporter but other than us not having a QB or losing 5-6 starters between now and then, we should not go 1-2 against Tennessee, Arkansas, and OM.

I agree. I’m just saying the lowest floor is 5 wins. We slip up and lose to those and Moorhead gets fired next year.

[Covercorner2]

If we can?t beat Arkansas and Tennessee without our suspended players then I really do not care if we go to a bowl game or not. I mean I know it?s a long shot but damn we are 1-0 in the sec. Let?s not quit until it?s at least time to quit. Who gives a shit if we go 6-6 or 7-5? Ole Miss is the only game that we should win without the suspended players where we should play them anyway.

Why should we play them against Ole Miss anyway? We will probably be at a least a two TD favorite with or without those guys. You play Gay and Autry against teams you need them the most. You don't just play them in a rivalry game because its a rivalry game. Would your rather be conservative and go 7-5, or play to the best of your ability and go 9-3? 9-3 all day. Putting more emphasis on beating a 4-7 Ole Miss team than trying to beat a top 10 team and reach 9 wins is exactly what is wrong with our program and fanbase.

[sleepy dawg]

Based on the FPI numbers, I ran 1000 simulations of the rest of our season and here's the percentage chance of each record:



Record
# of occurrences
%


11-1
2
0.2%


10-2
21
2.1%


9-3
120
12.0%


8-4
282
28.2%


7-5
340
34.0%


6-6
185
18.5%


5-7
44
4.4%


4-8
6
0.6%



https://i.imgur.com/0f2GZf1.png

[dawgday166]

Based on the FPI numbers, I ran 1000 simulations of the rest of our season and here's the percentage chance of each record:



Record
# of occurrences
%


11-1
2
0.2%


10-2
21
2.1%


9-3
120
12.0%


8-4
282
28.2%


7-5
340
34.0%


6-6
185
18.5%


5-7
44
4.4%


4-8
6
0.6%



https://i.imgur.com/0f2GZf1.png

Nice work.

Monte Carlo with dispersions?

[Jarius]

Why should we play them against Ole Miss anyway? We will probably be at a least a two TD favorite with or without those guys. You play Gay and Autry against teams you need them the most. You don't just play them in a rivalry game because its a rivalry game. Would your rather be conservative and go 7-5, or play to the best of your ability and go 9-3? 9-3 all day. Putting more emphasis on beating a 4-7 Ole Miss team than trying to beat a top 10 team and reach 9 wins is exactly what is wrong with our program and fanbase.

If we play them against Auburn and A&M and win, I agree. If we lose either of those games then we need to ensure we beat Ole Miss to keep the momentum over our in state rival going in recruiting. If we lose to auburn or A&M, we are out of the West race and it doesn’t really matter.

[biggun]

I see your point but I see some breakout performances from our DL that will hold them back and maybe Joe will call a decent game keeping us close.

Breakout performances from our DL based on what?? Or actually from whom??? KSU and Kentucky both ran on us at will and Auburn has a better OL and RB?s than both of those teams. The chances of our defense stopping their run game are very slim and expect their game plan to be basically run, run, run, and then run some more. Just about every play

[Tbonewannabe]

Nice work.

Monte Carlo with dispersions?

I would assume those are with a healthy Tommy Stevens. I would be very happy with a 8-4 record with a freshman QB to go with the freshmen on the Dline.

[Commercecomet24]

Based on the FPI numbers, I ran 1000 simulations of the rest of our season and here's the percentage chance of each record:



Record
# of occurrences
%


11-1
2
0.2%


10-2
21
2.1%


9-3
120
12.0%


8-4
282
28.2%


7-5
340
34.0%


6-6
185
18.5%


5-7
44
4.4%


4-8
6
0.6%



https://i.imgur.com/0f2GZf1.png

Dang there were actually 2 times we went 11-1. So there is a chance!

[dantheman4248]

Dang there were actually 2 times we went 11-1. So there is a chance!

model is broken***

[dawgday166]

Dang there were actually 2 times we went 11-1. So there is a chance!

Out of a 1000. Where can I place my $500k bet ****

[sleepy dawg]

Nice work.

Monte Carlo with dispersions?

I'm not too familiar with the lingo, but I believe that would be right. Randomly generated results based upon a predicted percentage chance of winning. I just wrote a java program to do the iterations and random numbers with ESPNs FPI as the chance.

[Homedawg]

Why should we play them against Ole Miss anyway? We will probably be at a least a two TD favorite with or without those guys. You play Gay and Autry against teams you need them the most. You don't just play them in a rivalry game because its a rivalry game. Would your rather be conservative and go 7-5, or play to the best of your ability and go 9-3? 9-3 all day. Putting more emphasis on beating a 4-7 Ole Miss team than trying to beat a top 10 team and reach 9 wins is exactly what is wrong with our program and fanbase.

yeah we've never lost to them being favored, I wouldn't even sweat the rebels************

[dawgday166]

I'm not too familiar with the lingo, but I believe that would be right. Randomly generated results based upon a predicted percentage chance of winning. I just wrote a java program to do the iterations and random numbers with ESPNs FPI as the chance.

I reiterate ... Very Nice Work. Especially if you don't understand the lingo. Figured you would.

Of course this is still subjective somewhat to the predicted percentage chance of winning. Your ICs to me seem pretty realistic based on the results.

[dantheman4248]

yeah we've never lost to them being favored, I wouldn't even sweat the rebels************

I wouldn’t bother saving Gay or Autry for OM because they’ll pick a fight and get them ejected. Or OM will injure them. ***

[dantheman4248]

I reiterate ... Very Nice Work. Especially if you don't understand the lingo. Figured you would.

Of course this is still subjective somewhat to the predicted percentage chance of winning. Your ICs to me seem pretty realistic based on the results.

The problem with it is that FPI weighs too heavily the sec as a whole. That’s why the 2 11-1s even exist. It overvalued us as well as UT, Ark, etc. At this stage of the game if we aren’t sub 5% against Bama then something is wrong. (Put another way, if vegas gave you -2000 or better odds that Bama beats us, it would get hammered.)

[dawgday166]

yeah we've never lost to them being favored, I wouldn't even sweat the rebels************

I absolutely hate it when our fans take OM for granted. We seem to lose at least 3 out of 4 times when we do that. And everyone is then screaming about how could we possibly lose to them.

If JoMo loses to them this year everyone, including his supporters, will initially be screaming for his head except 007 and dantheman ... who will both be making excuses for the loss and telling us next year we should cruise easily to wins against AU, LSU, & Bama and win the SEC **

[dawgday166]

The problem with it is that FPI weighs too heavily the sec as a whole. That’s why the 2 11-1s even exist. It overvalued us as well as UT, Ark, etc. At this stage of the game if we aren’t sub 5% against Bama then something is wrong. (Put another way, if vegas gave you -2000 or better odds that Bama beats us, it would get hammered.)

You right ... your modeling was much more accurate **********+

ETA: I concede ... therefore you're the winner.

[Covercorner2]

yeah we've never lost to them being favored, I wouldn't even sweat the rebels************

It's not a foregone conclusion we beat them, but why would you play your best players in games you are favored heavily to win and not play them in games in which you need them the most/should be close. It doesn't make sense.

[Homedawg]

It's not a foregone conclusion we beat them, but why would you play your best players in games you are favored heavily to win and not play them in games in which you need them the most/should be close. It doesn't make sense.

Because going to a bowl is important and to be honest, I don't think we can win any of the 4 tough ones left anyway. With or without them. A&M is the best shot. We've already proven we can lose a winnable game wo them, so nothing besides AC should be considered a sure thing.

[dantheman4248]

You right ... your modeling was much more accurate **********

90% chance we win turned out to be a 7 point loss with no LB1, CB1, DT1, HB2, OG, hurt QB1. Yea I feel like my assessment was fair. And I’d put it closer to 1 in 100,000 we go 11-1 the rest of the way knowing what we know now. But yea let’s shit on me predicting things not the thing that says .2% chance we run the table and THIS is the msu team that wins 11 games for the first time in school history.

[Tbonewannabe]

90% chance we win turned out to be a 7 point loss with no LB1, CB1, DT1, HB2, OG, hurt QB1. Yea I feel like my assessment was fair. And I’d put it closer to 1 in 100,000 we go 11-1 the rest of the way knowing what we know now. But yea let’s shit on me predicting things not the thing that says .2% chance we run the table and THIS is the msu team that wins 11 games for the first time in school history.

I wonder how much people would give us a chance if Nix, Derrick Brown, AU best CB, Best LB, 2nd string RB, and starting OG went down. I know that I would feel a lot better about our chances.

[deadheaddawg]

I'd be shocked if it's anything other than 7-5.

So I'd be disappointed in 6-6 (or worse) and very Happy with 8-4 (or better)

[msstate7]

I'd be shocked if it's anything other than 7-5.

So I'd be disappointed in 6-6 (or worse) and very Happy with 8-4 (or better)

^^^

[Todd4State]

Based on the FPI numbers, I ran 1000 simulations of the rest of our season and here's the percentage chance of each record:



Record
# of occurrences
%


11-1
2
0.2%


10-2
21
2.1%


9-3
120
12.0%


8-4
282
28.2%


7-5
340
34.0%


6-6
185
18.5%


5-7
44
4.4%


4-8
6
0.6%



https://i.imgur.com/0f2GZf1.png

That's pretty much in line with my thinking.

Good work by the way.

[Dawgcap]

Several will be happy with 6-6 or worse because they ain’t ever gonna be happy and if you can’t be happy you can sell your narrative. If we end up 7-5 we will here how our players and coaches sucked. Same with 8-4. There are some that won’t be happy no matter what. They are dumbasses just like every fan base has when there team loses. Or like Alabama fans they bitch because they don’t win like they think they should.

[Liverpooldawg]

3-4 rest of the way is most likely. 4-3 is possible. So is 2-5.

[dantheman4248]

3-4 rest of the way is most likely. 4-3 is possible. So is 2-5.

There’s 8 games left...

[Saltydog]

Spot on Cadaver. I don't us being able to stop their ground game at all. I'm afraid we'll have to stack the box and then Nix will hit us deep and he'll be the next big thing with all the talking heads. I can hear it now.

[Jarius]

3-4 rest of the way is most likely. 4-3 is possible. So is 2-5.

If we lose to Tennessee, Arkansas, Ole Miss, or Abilene Christian we will have lost a game in which we were a double digit favorite going into the game and it will be considered a major upset.

[bostondawg]

I'm not too familiar with the lingo, but I believe that would be right. Randomly generated results based upon a predicted percentage chance of winning. I just wrote a java program to do the iterations and random numbers with ESPNs FPI as the chance.

Always love seeing some Monte Carlo! Nice work!

I would also add that for this problem, you could calculate the record likelihoods exactly! No Monte Carlo needed.

ETA: I'd also add that maybe a better way to represent this distribution is likelihood of going at least a certain record. For example, in case anyone was curious, by this model we've got the following probability of going this record or better:

76.5% of 6-6 or better
42.5% of going 7-5 or better
14.3% of going 8-4 or better
2.3% of going 9-3 or better

I think the data tell a different story this way.

[Liverpooldawg]

There’s 8 games left...

3-5 most likely then. 4-4 possible 2-6 also.

[Liverpooldawg]

If we lose to Tennessee, Arkansas, Ole Miss, or Abilene Christian we will have lost a game in which we were a double digit favorite going into the game and it will be considered a major upset.

I think we beat UM, Arkansas, and AC. UT is up there. I don't think it's quite the lock a lot of people think. We ain't winning the other 4.

[dantheman4248]

3-5 most likely then. 4-4 possible 2-6 also.

A. There’s literally math telling you wrong that the pessimist brigade here agrees is correct. B. It’s not likely that we lose 1 of UT, Ark, ABC, OM. We should be favored in each by at least a TD.

You have to have not watched UT games to think they aren’t full on meltdown. That is not a team right now and they are playing more freshmen than us (at least the players on the field play like freshmen). I’d be shocked if UT keeps an SEC game within 10 let alone say it’s likely they beat us.

[Captain Falcon]

If we lose to Tennessee coming off a bye week then it’s a massive failure, and I say that as someone who has been a Moorhead defender for the most part.

[Homedawg]

A. There?s literally math telling you wrong that the pessimist brigade here agrees is correct. B. It?s not likely that we lose 1 of UT, Ark, ABC, OM. We should be favored in each by at least a TD.

You have to have not watched UT games to think they aren?t full on meltdown. That is not a team right now and they are playing more freshmen than us (at least the players on the field play like freshmen). I?d be shocked if UT keeps an SEC game within 10 let alone say it?s likely they beat us.

And we were favored by more than td against KSU too. But I will admit KSU is probably better than of these. Ole miss is the best of those 3. But 2 are on the road.

[Coach34]

If we lose to Tennessee, Arkansas, Ole Miss, or Abilene Christian we will have lost a game in which we were a double digit favorite going into the game and it will be considered a major upset.

Florida was favored by 14 over Tenn at home. I dont see any way we will be a double digit fav over Tenn on the road- especially after how we will look this Sat

[dantheman4248]

Always love seeing some Monte Carlo! Nice work!

I would also add that for this problem, you could calculate the record likelihoods exactly! No Monte Carlo needed.

ETA: I'd also add that maybe a better way to represent this distribution is likelihood of going at least a certain record. For example, in case anyone was curious, by this model we've got the following probability of going this record or better:

76.5% of 6-6 or better
42.5% of going 7-5 or better
14.3% of going 8-4 or better
2.3% of going 9-3 or better

I think the data tell a different story this way.

Move those over 1 in the win column.

76.5% of 7-5+; 42.5% of 8-4+; 14.3% of 9-3+; 2.3% of 10-2+

There's a lot of ED that would hate this. Worse than 25% chance of losing 1 of UT, Ark, OM, ABC; 42.5% chance of winning 1 of Auburn, aTm, LSU, Bama. A lot better than the doom and gloom some are predicting (but hey the models love moorhead and are wrong***)

(Nevermind the fact I already said the data from FPI is bad)


And we were favored by more than td against KSU too. But I will admit KSU is probably better than of these. Ole miss is the best of those 3. But 2 are on the road.

KSU game ended up -6 iirc and that was w/o the knowledge that our QB was definitely injured.


Florida was favored by 14 over Tenn at home. I dont see any way we will be a double digit fav over Tenn on the road- especially after how we will look this Sat

Easiest money of the week. Vegas will adjust accordingly. Till then I'll be eating good at Ruth Chris as the Hard Rock continually pays for it.

[Tbonewannabe]

Florida was favored by 14 over Tenn at home. I dont see any way we will be a double digit fav over Tenn on the road- especially after how we will look this Sat

I think it depends on if we have a healthy Tommy Stevens and if UGA breaks UT to the point of quitting for the year. UT already had a few more players leave the program this week. Getting beat by UGA 55-3 might just finish them off for the year. I will say that I will be impressed if Pruitt gets the team to compete against UGA. It isn't like UT hasn't had more talent than everyone they have played except UF and their recruiting isn't too far off UF.

[Jarius]

Florida was favored by 14 over Tenn at home. I dont see any way we will be a double digit fav over Tenn on the road- especially after how we will look this Sat

Yes, and Florida beat them 34-3 with a backup quarterback. The line on Tennessee games is going to start growing as the season goes along and people stop betting on them to cover like idiots. They are not a power 5 program right now Talent wise. We are as good as Florida (when we play Gay and Autry and Stevens) and will be playing them at 11 AM in front of no one. There will be no home fans there for an advantage. We will also be competitive against Auburn if Tommy plays, and I think he will. Don’t expect to win but Auburn’s offense is very mediocre because they are extremely limited at quarterback. 24-14 or so sounds about right.

[RocketDawg]

Why should we play them against Ole Miss anyway? We will probably be at a least a two TD favorite with or without those guys. You play Gay and Autry against teams you need them the most. You don't just play them in a rivalry game because its a rivalry game. Would your rather be conservative and go 7-5, or play to the best of your ability and go 9-3? 9-3 all day. Putting more emphasis on beating a 4-7 Ole Miss team than trying to beat a top 10 team and reach 9 wins is exactly what is wrong with our program and fanbase.

I agree.

[Hambone]

So you?re saying there?s a chance? 😎

[Tbonewannabe]

Yes, and Florida beat them 34-3 with a backup quarterback. The line on Tennessee games is going to start growing as the season goes along and people stop betting on them to cover like idiots. They are not a power 5 program right now Talent wise. We are as good as Florida (when we play Gay and Autry and Stevens) and will be playing them at 11 AM in front of no one. There will be no home fans there for an advantage. We will also be competitive against Auburn if Tommy plays, and I think he will. Don’t expect to win but Auburn’s offense is very mediocre because they are extremely limited at quarterback. 24-14 or so sounds about right.

I disagree with this. I think the talent is there but the culture and coaching isn't. It isn't like Mullen took a bunch of 1 and 2 stars to the Gator Bowl his 2nd year. The talent was there but just had really shitty coaching. I think that is kind of what is happening at UT with a dumpster fire athletic department added to it. If Mullen had signed with UT instead of ditching them at the last second, they would be an 8-9 win team.

[Maverick]

I hope Tommy can play but it's hard not to like Shrader's swagger. I'd be interested to know if he keeps that calm, cool, and collective attitude away from home in front of a big crowd. He just doesn't appear to get rattled and it's rare to see from a freshman. Might see it soon enough anyway.

[Jarius]

I disagree with this. I think the talent is there but the culture and coaching isn't. It isn't like Mullen took a bunch of 1 and 2 stars to the Gator Bowl his 2nd year. The talent was there but just had really shitty coaching. I think that is kind of what is happening at UT with a dumpster fire athletic department added to it. If Mullen had signed with UT instead of ditching them at the last second, they would be an 8-9 win team.

They are not a power 5 program on either side of the line of scrimmage or at qb right now. They have had about 15 people leave the program that were not scheduled to leave since last year and most of those are on the LOS. They have some skill talent, but a lot of these recruits get bumped when they sign with a blue blood for no other reason than signing with a blue blood. Tennessee is severely lacking talent in spots that matter and they are also lacking a head coach that is not an idiot. I agree that Mullen would have them in a much better spot.

[Tbonewannabe]

They are not a power 5 program on either side of the line of scrimmage or at qb right now. They have had about 15 people leave the program that were not scheduled to leave since last year and most of those are on the LOS. They have some skill talent, but a lot of these recruits get bumped when they sign with a blue blood for no other reason than signing with a blue blood. Tennessee is severely lacking talent in spots that matter and they are also lacking a head coach that is not an idiot. I agree that Mullen would have them in a much better spot.

When I say P5 I don't mean competing with Bama or UGA. Even if you factor in lost players, they still have a better roster than the bottom half of most P5 teams. They probably still have more 4 and 5 star of players than several P5 teams. Coaching and culture matter a lot. That is why Mullen won 10 games last year. UF had top 15 talent but only won 4 games. With the right coach, UT would be right back to 8-10 wins per year. Luckily for the rest of the SEC, they have Fat Phil running the show. I don't think they will ever get back to the level they were but they definitely can get to Auburn and A&M level.