Based on the stats

[Todd4State]

I love Shrader and he was awesome yesterday. He has the potential to be special.

But right now against Auburn our best chance to win on the road is to start Tommy Stevens if he is 100% healthy. Which I hope is the case- and is very possible if his injury is indeed what I heard it was. Auburn is number two in the SEC in rush defense and while I'm sure of that is small sample size and to a degree maybe competition based- Tulane is really the only effective rushing attack they have faced this year. Auburn is also 9th in the SEC in pass defense. So based on the early returns where trends are starting to form despite the small sample sizes the best course of action for us is to throw the ball and hope that opens up some space for Kylin to operate. Because I think it would be pretty foolish of us to not at least try to run the ball on them at least some since Kylin is the best back that they have faced in the early going.

On defense their rushing attack is among the best in the SEC and they are 4th in the league with a 5.41 AVG per carry and they are the best rushing offense that we have faced and depending on how Alabama does going forward- perhaps the best we will face. That said- their passing offense is dead last in the SEC. It's not a secret what Auburn is going to try to do small sample size or not. And it may be prudent to use Autry's third game. At any rate it's very obvious that we need to find a way to bring the energy that Willie Gay brings to the defense- which was the biggest and somewhat most pleasant surprise of the season so far behind Shrader's performance. With Willie Gay and Autry our defense looks much more like what I anticipated it would in the preseason. It makes me also think that the missed tackles are at least in part because of a lack of energy overall. Because we weren't missing tackles when Gay was in. When he was out- same defense we've seen the rest of the year. Which is odd but that's what the eye test is telling me.

Also- Javonta Payton needs to start over Guidry. It's very obvious. I'm not sure why football coaches pander to seniors sometimes. Kylin Hill's first TD reminded me of Walter Payton for at least that one play. I'm not saying that Hill is like Walter Payton- just for that one moment.

Auburn's offensive line is second in the SEC in sacks allowed (good for them) but near the bottom in TFL's (bad). Basically means that they run the ball a lot and have a really mobile QB. And those have given us trouble this year. Also- something to watch that may be in our favor- Auburn is last in the SEC in punt returns allowed. One very concerning stat for MSU- we are last in the SEC in long opponent rushing plays allowed (10+ or more yards)

[Jack Lambert]

I agree start Stevens.

[DancingRabbit]

If he's 100% it's a no-brainer.

Can Tommy take all the #1 reps this week without restrictions? Besides his shoulder and the high passes, early going he looked rusty as if he hadn't really practiced much.

I really hope you're right about the injury.

[Todd4State]

If he's 100% it's a no-brainer.

Can Tommy take all the #1 reps this week without restrictions? Besides his shoulder and the high passes, early going he looked rusty as if he hadn't really practiced much.

I really hope you're right about the injury.

I do too. I would think at the very latest he would be back by Tennessee. And you're right- he did look off. But before the second half he was 7-13 with one very bad drop by Guidry which resulted in an INT. I would only expect him to get better and better between K-State and Auburn. Observing him on the sideline yesterday- still no sling. Which is a good sign.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I love Shrader and he was awesome yesterday. He has the potential to be special.

But right now against Auburn our best chance to win on the road is to start Tommy Stevens if he is 100% healthy. Which I hope is the case- and is very possible if his injury is indeed what I heard it was. Auburn is number two in the SEC in rush defense and while I'm sure of that is small sample size and to a degree maybe competition based- Tulane is really the only effective rushing attack they have faced this year. Auburn is also 9th in the SEC in pass defense. So based on the early returns where trends are starting to form despite the small sample sizes the best course of action for us is to throw the ball and hope that opens up some space for Kylin to operate. Because I think it would be pretty foolish of us to not at least try to run the ball on them at least some since Kylin is the best back that they have faced in the early going.

On defense their rushing attack is among the best in the SEC and they are 4th in the league with a 5.41 AVG per carry and they are the best rushing offense that we have faced and depending on how Alabama does going forward- perhaps the best we will face. That said- their passing offense is dead last in the SEC. It's not a secret what Auburn is going to try to do small sample size or not. And it may be prudent to use Autry's third game. At any rate it's very obvious that we need to find a way to bring the energy that Willie Gay brings to the defense- which was the biggest and somewhat most pleasant surprise of the season so far behind Shrader's performance. With Willie Gay and Autry our defense looks much more like what I anticipated it would in the preseason. It makes me also think that the missed tackles are at least in part because of a lack of energy overall. Because we weren't missing tackles when Gay was in. When he was out- same defense we've seen the rest of the year. Which is odd but that's what the eye test is telling me.

Also- Javonta Payton needs to start over Guidry. It's very obvious. I'm not sure why football coaches pander to seniors sometimes. Kylin Hill's first TD reminded me of Walter Payton for at least that one play. I'm not saying that Hill is like Walter Payton- just for that one moment.

Auburn's offensive line is second in the SEC in sacks allowed (good for them) but near the bottom in TFL's (bad). Basically means that they run the ball a lot and have a really mobile QB. And those have given us trouble this year. Also- something to watch that may be in our favor- Auburn is last in the SEC in punt returns allowed. One very concerning stat for MSU- we are last in the SEC in long opponent rushing plays allowed (10+ or more yards)

If you look at the rates of TFLs allowed, the numbers aren't quite as bad as they seem. If you look at their "Stuff Rate" -- the rate at which their O-Line allows TFLs and zero-yard rushes, which was 16.7% before their game with A&M -- they're top half of the league. (They allowed TFLs and zero-yard runs on 18% of their rushes against A&M, but even then, they're likely still in the top half of the SEC.) So they're doing ok in that department.

Of course, given how poor we are at dishing out TFLs, sacks, and zero-yard rushes, I'm not sure it matters. Before the Kentucky game, we were ranked in the 90s nationally in both Stuff rate and sack rate. Those rankings should improve a little now; we sacked KY 3 times and had 5 TFLS, both of which account for better rates than we had been having. But we'll have to improve much more next week to keep Auburn behind the chains.

Re: your larger points, I agree that we're going to have to soften up their front seven with passes to make a respectable run game possible. They had TFLs on 1/3 of A&Ms run attempts last week. Damn. I agree with Moorhead that Kylin is a special back and one of the best in the conference, but he's got to have a least a little breathing room. And, notwithstanding Shader's awesome performance against KY, I think a 100% healthy Stevens -- assuming that's an option -- gives us a little bit of a better shot through the air.

I also agree that the defense with Gay and Autry in looked better than we've seen before this season. Makes me mad that the suspensions happened, but that's on them and there's nothing we can do about it now.

[basedog]

After seeing TS not dressed last Saturday, then he didn't practice, I'm gonna say with that he may dress this weekend but may be only used in an emergency situation. I think he is hurt worse than some are thinking, it's never good not dressing and gives me little up he would be 100% this weekend. With open date after Auburn maybe he will be 100%.

[gravedigger]

If you look at the rates of TFLs allowed, the numbers aren't quite as bad as they seem. If you look at their "Stuff Rate" -- the rate at which their O-Line allows TFLs and zero-yard rushes, which was 16.7% before their game with A&M -- they're top half of the league. (They allowed TFLs and zero-yard runs on 18% of their rushes against A&M, but even then, they're likely still in the top half of the SEC.) So they're doing ok in that department.

Of course, given how poor we are at dishing out TFLs, sacks, and zero-yard rushes, I'm not sure it matters. Before the Kentucky game, we were ranked in the 90s nationally in both Stuff rate and sack rate. Those rankings should improve a little now; we sacked KY 3 times and had 5 TFLS, both of which account for better rates than we had been having. But we'll have to improve much more next week to keep Auburn behind the chains.

Re: your larger points, I agree that we're going to have to soften up their front seven with passes to make a respectable run game possible. They had TFLs on 1/3 of A&Ms run attempts last week. Damn. I agree with Moorhead that Kylin is a special back and one of the best in the conference, but he's got to have a least a little breathing room. And, notwithstanding Shader's awesome performance against KY, I think a 100% healthy Stevens -- assuming that's an option -- gives us a little bit of a better shot through the air.

I also agree that the defense with Gay and Autry in looked better than we've seen before this season. Makes me mad that the suspensions happened, but that's on them and there's nothing we can do about it now.

Great stuff from Both you and Todd. Especially:

"Re: your larger points, I agree that we're going to have to soften up their front seven with passes to make a respectable run game possible. "

We are going to HAVE to be a pass first offense in the game vs Auburn. That doesnt mean we should end up throwing all that much more than running. It means that until Auburn backs up to stop the pass, we are going to have to make them pay for the decision. I think we can do that and what's more, if we do, I think Kylin can run wild on them. But not until we loosen them. Kentucky stopped our runs when we telegraphed them quite a few times.

We are going to have to play ball control and run that clock when we have opportunity.

They are faster on the edges than our defense has seen. We may have to take more long pass chances and wind up accepting field goals for scores. I think we will also need a special teams or defensive score to win this one.

I'm thinking Auburn is not going to make many bonehead mistakes. But they will try to keep us from subbing on defense to get mismatches. We get caught with the wrong personnel in the game, they are going to hit us for big running plays.