Here is why you play everybody vs Auburn and LSU

[Coach007]

Both are beatable.

Auburn:

- They are the most over rated team in history.
- QB is throwing 52%
- No real rushing threat
- have to protect the outside.



LSU:

- gave up 120 to 1 RB this weekend from Vandy. In total, they gave up 145 yards rushing. With Hill, Gibson (who was almost ready for todays game) and Stevens keeping them honest, we ca slow down or limit the LSU offense and touches.

- You would think that Our home stadium, crowd and our defense would be up to the task of getting some stops.


Those games get you in the poll and ranked high.

We should be able to beat Ark, Ole Miss, UT, TAMU and Abilene without them. Why not give ourselves a chance?

[BhamDawg205]

Good take... Only thing we've made every team's RB look prolific so far. Do we stack box on AU and make Nix beat us?

[Coach007]

Good take... Only thing we've made every team's RB look prolific so far. Do we stack box on AU and make Nix beat us?

I think we can and we can get pressure on him too. The only concern is the edges.

This is where we are missing Abrams the most

[BhamDawg205]

Earlier 3 games they ran up the middle... Kentucky found success middle and outside. One thing for sure whatever the game plan is, defense better wrap up.

[Cooterpoot]

Both are waaaaayyy better than a pretty average KY team. We aren?t winning either of those games. Save them for the ones we can win. Hell, we almost lost to KY after Gay left.

[MetEdDawg]

Sorry but we shouldn't think about beating LSU this year. That's just not feasible. I know some of us want it to be. But this is the most well rounded LSU team of the last decade. The might be the 2nd best team in the SEC.

You play them next week at Auburn because I agree. That game is winnable. Our OL is good enough to neutralize Auburn's DL enough to find success. Plus you get some continuity letting everyone play two weeks in a row. Should see some growth from week to week.

Gay gets 3 more games. Play him against Auburn, OM, and probably Tennessee. We are sandwiched between Georgia and Alabama for Tennessee. They have to have that win against us to think about getting to a bowl. So I think he needs to play that one.

[Cooterpoot]

Oregon has the highest rated OL in America and they didnt slow down that DL but a half. Our OL is solid not great. AU is better than I thought they’d be and it’s on the road. Play them vs A&M who lost vs AU. Then OM and TN.

[Coursesuper]

Just No. These are nonsensical takes that show a complete ignorance for how good those two teams are.

[TNDawg35]

Autry will play against Ole Miss and then I’d ply him against A&M. Let Willie play against A&M, OM, then maybe Auburn.

We can beat Tenn and Ark without them.

Read this tho,

THERE IS NO WAY THEY SIT A RIVALRY GAME AGAINST OLE MISS... Ain’t gonna happen...

[basedog]

Both are waaaaayyy better than a pretty average KY team. We aren?t winning either of those games. Save them for the ones we can win. Hell, we almost lost to KY after Gay left.

Almost? No we didn't almost lose, it got a little closer but it was NO almost.

[Cooterpoot]

Almost? No we didn't almost lose, it got a little closer but it was NO almost.

Ok........

[Tbonewannabe]

Autry will play against Ole Miss and then I’d ply him against A&M. Let Willie play against A&M, OM, then maybe Auburn.

We can beat Tenn and Ark without them.

Read this tho,

THERE IS NO WAY THEY SIT A RIVALRY GAME AGAINST OLE MISS... Ain’t gonna happen...

Ole Miss is also the toughest game of the winnable games. They are better than UT or Ark. They played a good Cal team close. I wouldn't take that game for granted.

[Cooterpoot]

Cal isn’t that good. Offensively they’re bad and defensively they were down 4 players. OM found their Pat White in Plumlee though. Let’s see how that goes. I foresee a QB controversy and some locker room issues with Corral.

[BogeyGolfer]

Both are beatable.

Auburn:

- They are the most over rated team in history.
- QB is throwing 52%
- No real rushing threat
- have to protect the outside.



LSU:

- gave up 120 to 1 RB this weekend from Vandy. In total, they gave up 145 yards rushing. With Hill, Gibson (who was almost ready for todays game) and Stevens keeping them honest, we ca slow down or limit the LSU offense and touches.

- You would think that Our home stadium, crowd and our defense would be up to the task of getting some stops.


Those games get you in the poll and ranked high.

We should be able to beat Ark, Ole Miss, UT, TAMU and Abilene without them. Why not give ourselves a chance?

No, they are not both beatable. LSU will beat us by 3-4 TD's. We can't stop the run, and I'm not sure why UK stopped running it. We struggle to beat AU on the road when we have equal or better talent. We need to keep playing the young guys and accept this year for what it is. My prediction was 6-6 when you were saying 11-1 or 10-2 lol, lol.....This year is a year where we need to get to a bowl no matter which bowl and then build for next year....I do think Schrader is a play-maker and Hill is the real deal...Let's work on getting better on the DL and sit back and enjoy the season for what it is...A rebuild....

[msbulldog]

We need to beat Mississippi more than any other. Dominance of them means a whole lot in continuing our dominance of in-state recruiting and that's our bread and butter.

[Saltydog]

Chances are slim we win either of those even if we had everyone available. It's just the truth. No, they are both going to play against Ole Miss and to think otherwise is crazy. I'd say play them against aTm. And for the record, the only game any of us should pencil in as a W from this point forward is Abilene Christian and maybe Arkansas. The rest are on the table. Now, we should be favored in some of them but nothing that is a slam dunk and that includes UT and UM.

[biggun]

Both are beatable.

Auburn:

- They are the most over rated team in history.
- QB is throwing 52%
- No real rushing threat
- have to protect the outside.



LSU:

- gave up 120 to 1 RB this weekend from Vandy. In total, they gave up 145 yards rushing. With Hill, Gibson (who was almost ready for todays game) and Stevens keeping them honest, we ca slow down or limit the LSU offense and touches.

- You would think that Our home stadium, crowd and our defense would be up to the task of getting some stops.


Those games get you in the poll and ranked high.

We should be able to beat Ark, Ole Miss, UT, TAMU and Abilene without them. Why not give ourselves a chance?


LSU will punish our secondary while putting up 40+ points. Not beating them this year.

If we had Auburn at home, maybe, but on the road, nope. Plus, J Whitlow is a pretty good RB for Auburn

[IMissJack]

Both are beatable.

Auburn:

- They are the most over rated team in history.
- QB is throwing 52%
- No real rushing threat
- have to protect the outside.



LSU:

- gave up 120 to 1 RB this weekend from Vandy. In total, they gave up 145 yards rushing. With Hill, Gibson (who was almost ready for todays game) and Stevens keeping them honest, we ca slow down or limit the LSU offense and touches.

- You would think that Our home stadium, crowd and our defense would be up to the task of getting some stops.


Those games get you in the poll and ranked high.

We should be able to beat Ark, Ole Miss, UT, TAMU and Abilene without them. Why not give ourselves a chance?


I don't agree with aTm take. We are going to need all hands on deck for that one to be a W. I would save everyone for that one, because it is much more winnable than AU or LSU though.

[basedog]

Regardless of any team playing on a Saturday, you never know when upsets can occur.

[I seen it dawg]

No way in hell do you play those guys auburn and LSU. We HAVE to win both Arkansas and OM or no bowl game. As bad as tenn is it's still a road game in sec and losable even with them all playing.

[West Tn Dawg]

Earlier 3 games they ran up the middle... Kentucky found success middle and outside. One thing for sure whatever the game plan is, defense better wrap up.

The biggest success KY had running was mostly due to missed tackles. We had the right defense most of the time, just failed to wrap up and make the tackle. If we just make the tackles we should, the defense will look totally different.

[State82]

No way in hell do you play those guys auburn and LSU. We HAVE to win both Arkansas and OM or no bowl game. As bad as tenn is it's still a road game in sec and losable even with them all playing.

This is all that needs to be said regarding the subject.

[dantheman4248]

Autry: Auburn, OM

Willie: Auburn, LSU, OM (Though I say this is subject to change as the season goes along.)

LSU gave up 38 points to Vanderbilt. That is a winnable game no matter how you spin it.

Bad defense can cause great offenses to lose even in historic performances. Mike Leach showed that once again last night.

[DancingRabbit]

No way in hell do you play those guys auburn and LSU. We HAVE to win both Arkansas and OM or no bowl game. As bad as tenn is it's still a road game in sec and losable even with them all playing.

Mostly agree, but Arkansas may be the 2nd worst team we play this year. I'd look at OM, UT and aTm as the games you go all hands on deck.

[cheewgumm]

You can?t do that. They have to play against ole miss for sure and I?d play them against Tenn and arkansas.

Don?t take a chance against the long shots. We HAVE to beat those others. We lost to k State without themes

[Coach34]

We wont stay within 10 of either one of them. If you think so- you havent watched us play run D or tackle in space.

[dantheman4248]

We wont stay within 10 of either one of them. If you think so- you havent watched us play run D or tackle in space.

What makes you think LSU’s defense can stop anyone if Vandy put up 38 on them?

[dawgday166]

What makes you think LSU?s defense can stop anyone if Vandy put up 38 on them?

2 TDs were defensive TDs. You think LSU might've ho-hummed this game like we did according to y'all against ULL?

[Coach34]

What makes you think LSU’s defense can stop anyone if Vandy put up 38 on them?

Vandy scored 2 defensive TD's- one a fumble return down 38-10 and a pick-6with the scrubs playing in the 4th down 66-31. LSU was clowning on them up 38-10 in the 1st half. Teams get lax.

[dawgday166]

TAM is 3rd in SEC in Total D after playing Clemson and Auburn.

[msstate7]

TAM is 3rd in SEC in Total D after playing Clemson and Auburn.

They lost though... we'll smoke em

[dawgday166]

They lost though... we'll smoke em

I already know they a cakewalk ... not worried about them in the least **

[Coursesuper]

I already know they a cakewalk ... not worried about them in the least **

Soft Texas team that "already has two losses".

[dawgday166]

Soft Texas team that "already has two losses".

Jimbo sucks ... he and every other 2nd year coach at a new school not named MSU should be able to rebuild teams and cultures in 6 months or less **

[dantheman4248]

Vandy scored 2 defensive TD's- one a fumble return down 38-10 and a pick-6with the scrubs playing in the 4th down 66-31. LSU was clowning on them up 38-10 in the 1st half. Teams get lax.

So we shouldn’t play the one guy who scored on defense against them?

And 24 for Vandy O is still bad by LSU’s measures. You can’t deny this LSU defense is the most concerning it’s been in years.

Also can’t have it both ways chastising our defense getting lax up multiple scores in the first two games but LSU gets a pass for it.

Out of the 4 teams many think are ahead of us in the west I think LSU is simultaneously the most beatable while also possibly being the best (though I won’t crown them that for sure until they beat Saban).

[Coursesuper]

The drunk protocol time men. Do not engage there is zero chance of any kind of coherent comprehension here.

[I seen it dawg]

So we shouldn’t play the one guy who scored on defense against them?

And 24 for Vandy O is still bad by LSU’s measures. You can’t deny this LSU defense is the most concerning it’s been in years.

Also can’t have it both ways chastising our defense getting lax up multiple scores in the first two games but LSU gets a pass for it.

Out of the 4 teams many think are ahead of us in the west I think LSU is simultaneously the most beatable while also possibly being the best (though I won’t crown them that for sure until they beat Saban).

Lol

[Randolph Dupree]

I still think you play them vs AU but won't fault Joe either way. He schemed you AU pretty good last year and A&M too. At the end of the day it's going to come down to what they see on film and what they think we can get away with. AU is a very beatable team and I've seen nothing that makes me think otherwise.

Also, I keep seeing folks say they don't know why UK stopped running the ball against us. I was at the game and sure we got gashed at times but when we knew they were going to run we did ok. If we could wrap up, we would've done better. This year's defense is not last year's and it's definitely more bend but don't break so they're going to give up some yards between the 20s. If we play fundamental D against AU, have a healthy Tommy Stevens, and don't shoot ourselves in the foot with penalties we can win the game.

FWIW I probably still play everyone against LSU but think that one is way less winnable. I would play them because I loath that coonass fanbase with a passion and nothing would make me feel better than upsetting them. Even if it meant missing a bowl.

[dantheman4248]

The drunk protocol time men. Do not engage there is zero chance of any kind of coherent comprehension here.

Is that what you call having the willingness to dare say an Ed Ogeron coached team might have an issue with defense on an MSU board.

Nah let’s be pessimistic as hell and not allow anyone to point out reasons to think we might win. They’re being unrealistic. We need to have the collective opinion that we won’t be within 10+ points for 4 of our games left on our schedule and will be lucky to win 3 of the other 4 and get to a bowl....

No discussion points allowed. We shouldn’t play the guy who has scored on defense against a team who gave up two defensive TDs to Vandy. MSU doesn’t have a juggernaut offense like Vandy so we won’t score 24 on that side of the ball even if given 1000 tries to play the game. LSU can get lax at the end of a game. When MSU does it they just suck. LSU is unbeatable and we shouldn’t show up that weekend. See ya next home game november 23rd.

[Coach007]

Is that what you call having the willingness to dare say an Ed Ogeron coached team might have an issue with defense on an MSU board.

Nah let’s be pessimistic as hell and not allow anyone to point out reasons to think we might win. They’re being unrealistic. We need to have the collective opinion that we won’t be within 10+ points for 4 of our games left on our schedule and will be lucky to win 3 of the other 4 and get to a bowl....

No discussion points allowed. We shouldn’t play the guy who has scored on defense against a team who gave up two defensive TDs to Vandy. MSU doesn’t have a juggernaut offense like Vandy so we won’t score 24 on that side of the ball even if given 1000 tries to play the game. LSU can get lax at the end of a game. When MSU does it they just suck. LSU is unbeatable and we shouldn’t show up that weekend. See ya next home game november 23rd.

LOL! Sometimes you have to over look people man. He and his buds are out to make fun of those they disagree with and try to force you into not posting and to be a message board hero to his friends.

[I seen it dawg]

LOL! Sometimes you have to over look people man. He and his buds are out to make fun of those they disagree with and try to force you into not posting and to be a message board hero to his friends.

Which you 2 never seem to do.....

[Coach007]

Which you 2 never seem to do.....

Oh yeah.. I started ignoring the ignorance for the better part.

[Saltydog]

Remember this is the same guy who said we were the 3rd best team in the SEC and would likely go 11-1 with a loss to aTm.

[gravedigger]

Hell, we almost lost to KY after Gay left.

I'll take "hyperbole" for $200, Alex

[Political Hack]

No, they are not both beatable. LSU will beat us by 3-4 TD's. We can't stop the run, and I'm not sure why UK stopped running it. We struggle to beat AU on the road when we have equal or better talent. We need to keep playing the young guys and accept this year for what it is. My prediction was 6-6 when you were saying 11-1 or 10-2 lol, lol.....This year is a year where we need to get to a bowl no matter which bowl and then build for next year....I do think Schrader is a play-maker and Hill is the real deal...Let's work on getting better on the DL and sit back and enjoy the season for what it is...A rebuild....

For real. No way in hell fans should be expecting to beat LSU right now. I get that's auburn is vulnerable at times with a freshman QB, but so are we and they have a better defense. There's a reason they're a 7-point favorite.

[gravedigger]

Both are beatable.





LSU:


- You would think that Our home stadium, crowd and our defense would be up to the task of getting some stops.


Those games get you in the poll and ranked high.

We should be able to beat Ark, Ole Miss, UT, TAMU and Abilene without them. Why not give ourselves a chance?

I'll take missed tackles for $500, Alex

[dantheman4248]

Remember this is the same guy who said we were the 3rd best team in the SEC and would likely go 11-1 with a loss to aTm.

I?m not sure where I bet anything or guaranteed that. That?s on you for thinking my entry was anything more than entering a contest and going with a unique answer to cover the most finishes while being semi realistic (ie not picking 0-12). You must think people who guess 1 dollar on the price is right seriously think that the price is a dollar........

[msstate7]

For real. No way in hell fans should be expecting to beat LSU right now. I get that's auburn is vulnerable at times with a freshman QB, but so are we and they have a better defense. There's a reason they're a 7-point favorite.

Actually 11-point dog

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

[gravedigger]

Actually 11-point dog

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

They have Tommy Stevens questionable. Not saying that's unfair, but I wonder if the points would change if that were not the case.

[Saltydog]

Picking this team to go 11-1 was not "semi realistic". It was "STUPID". You even said State was the 3rd best team in the SEC. Hell, we aren't the 3rd best team in our own division.

[dantheman4248]

Picking this team to go 11-1 was not "semi realistic". It was "STUPID". You even said State was the 3rd best team in the SEC. Hell, we aren't the 3rd best team in our own division.

Every reasonable pick from 7-5 to 10-2 would be taken. So I bet outside that range. My thought was 11-1 or better was more reasonable than 6-6 or worse. Does that explain it enough for you? I really can’t believe you’re holding onto this.

It’s not like I’m the one in here pumping sunshine up everyone’s ass, I’m not. My points are that everyone else kinda sucks more than anyone here wants to say. So stop acting like I’m 007 who can’t see the deficiencies we have, I see them clear as day. I just A. think it’s stupid to attack a kid with a shit nickname who is putting himself on the line with an injury for this university and B. think that the product across the board in college football is down this year. I’m not arguing Moorhead up, I’m arguing Ogeron, Malzahn, and co. down.

[Homedawg]

Every reasonable pick from 7-5 to 10-2 would be taken. So I bet outside that range. My thought was 11-1 or better was more reasonable than 6-6 or worse. Does that explain it enough for you? I really can’t believe you’re holding onto this.

It’s not like I’m the one in here pumping sunshine up everyone’s ass, I’m not. My points are that everyone else kinda sucks more than anyone here wants to say. So stop acting like I’m 007 who can’t see the deficiencies we have, I see them clear as day. I just A. think it’s stupid to attack a kid with a shit nickname who is putting himself on the line with an injury for this university and B. think that the product across the board in college football is down this year. I’m not arguing Moorhead up, I’m arguing Ogeron, Malzahn, and co. down.

11-1 more reasonable than 6-6? ok............................

[dantheman4248]

11-1 more reasonable than 6-6? ok............................

When you come into the season with 6 gimmes and 2 more should wins, yes it is. I did the math based on my own percentages we’d win each game. Iirc it was about a 5 percent shot we went 11 wins or better while a one percent shot we went 6 wins or worse. 7 wins, 8 wins, 9 wins, 10 wins each had a higher percentage individually than the 0-6 and 11,12 combined iirc.

So based on mathematics and game theory, the best play in the contest for me was 11 wins. Alabama as the only loss was the most likely duplicate 11-1 so don’t pick them. Between LSU & aTm I went with the road game.

[dawgday166]

We've had so many 11 win seasons I can see why you said that. How long you been a State fan?

[dantheman4248]

We've had so many 11 win seasons I can see why you said that. How long you been a State fan?

Do you read or just guess a way to belittle someone? Yea we?ve never won 11 games. Why do you think the math was at 5%. The whole shtick with our coach is he needs a QB that knows his system and we got one. What?s funny is, if you take the higher percent team in all my projections preseason we finish 8-4.... but yea i?m an idiot because I used math and game theory to give me the best shot at winning a contest and had fun with how I presented it sheesh.

[dawgday166]

Not a mathematician but did take 4 Cals and 2 DEs so I used to be ok with it. Not sure I've seen any math ever taught that gets us to 11 wins this season ***

Still wondering how long you been a State fan?

[dantheman4248]

Not a mathematician but did take 4 Cals and 2 DEs so I used to be ok with it. Not sure I've seen any math ever taught that gets us to 11 wins this season ***

Still wondering how long you been a State fan?

Since I was born and will be until I die cause they can’t take these degrees away from me. And it’s not calculus or de that gets you there bud. You only need a stats class.

[dawgday166]

I can tell that stats class is working out for you.

ETA: I guess they must not have taught probability with that stats class.

[Homedawg]

Since I was born and will be until I die cause they can’t take these degrees away from me. And it’s not calculus or de that gets you there bud. You only need a stats class.

Here's the good news for ya, since we already lost one of the 8, you only need to win all of the gimmes and the other probable, and run the table on the not likely ones and impossible, and you get to 11 ****

[dantheman4248]

I can tell that stats class is working out for you.

ETA: I guess they must not have taught probability with that stats class.

Or maybe you don’t understand probability? Sucks we live in the timeline where Tommy is hurt.


Here's the good news for ya, since we already lost one of the 8, you only need to win all of the gimmes and the other probable, and run the table on the not likely ones and impossible, and you get to 11 ****

Only 6 gimmes. We lost one of the should wins and won the other. Gotta lose a gimme and every should lose for the 6 win now.

[Coach34]

apparently they werent "gimmes"

[Homedawg]

Or maybe you don?t understand probability? Sucks we live in the timeline where Tommy is hurt.



Only 6 gimmes. We lost one of the should wins and won the other. Gotta lose a gimme and every should lose for the 6 win now.

Which is a HeLL of a lot more likely than winning the other 4. Or winning 3 of the other four. Or winning ... nevermind .... Just smdh.
ETA. So you had KSU at home as a should, so ut ark and ole miss as gimmes? Wow. Before tee season huh.

[Tbonewannabe]

We've had so many 11 win seasons I can see why you said that. How long you been a State fan?

So I guess you aren't mad that Joe didn't win 10-11 games last year.

[Tbonewannabe]

apparently they werent "gimmes"

I would say without injuries and suspensions that we win those 6 "gimmes".

[dawgday166]

Which is a HeLL of a lot more likely than winning the other 4. Or winning 3 of the other four. Or winning ... nevermind .... Just smdh.
ETA. So you had KSU at home as a should, so ut ark and ole miss as gimmes? Wow. Before tee season huh.

He understands probability and I'm sure the probability of us winning 11 was high ****

What he doesn't understand is football.

[dawgday166]

So I guess you aren't mad that Joe didn't win 10-11 games last year.

That's why I am mad about that. Last year was one of our extremely infrequent chances to do that IMO.

[Coach34]

I would say without injuries and suspensions that we win those 6 "gimmes".

But we knew coming in to the season we had suspensions and injuries happen. So no- they werent. I and others said for months we had suspensions coming

[Coach34]

That's why I am mad about that. Last year was one of our extremely infrequent chances to do that IMO.

We wont have another team as talented as last season for quite awhile.

[dantheman4248]

But we knew coming in to the season we had suspensions and injuries happen. So no- they werent. I and others said for months we had suspensions coming

I take message board talk with a grain of salt from the majority of y’all. Sources are wrong sometimes. Hell no one could confirm Autry was one until the KSU game. The odds we had that many different starters out in our first P5 game of the season was low and the probability reflected that.

116... idk what to tell you man. You claim you understand stats but then shit all over me taking a flyer on what I had at 5%. Versus about 50-100 predictions I went with the selection that gave me +EV. If I went with strictly picking who I had as favorites I’d have been another person picking 8-4 with losses to LSU, A&M, Auburn, and Bama. Then it would have been literal price is right with Tommy’s yards. And if I get on game out of 12 wrong then I lose.

As a gambler which option are you taking?

[Homedawg]

I take message board talk with a grain of salt from the majority of y’all. Sources are wrong sometimes. Hell no one could confirm Autry was one until the KSU game. The odds we had that many different starters out in our first P5 game of the season was low and the probability reflected that.

116... idk what to tell you man. You claim you understand stats but then shit all over me taking a flyer on what I had at 5%. Versus about 50-100 predictions I went with the selection that gave me +EV. If I went with strictly picking who I had as favorites I’d have been another person picking 8-4 with losses to LSU, A&M, Auburn, and Bama. Then it would have been literal price is right with Tommy’s yards. And if I get on game out of 12 wrong then I lose.

As a gambler which option are you taking?

No one could confirm Autry was one until KSU?? Um no. You might not have believed it, but it was told. I can assure you it was told.

ETA as far as the "contest" it was a pick em. You don't get a thousand dollars for winning. Just say you look stupid for picking us to win games. You probability is off and you sound more absurd now than before.

[dawgday166]

We wont have another team as talented as last season for quite awhile.

That's my thought too and .. that sucks.

[Commercecomet24]

No one could confirm Autry was one until KSU?? Um no. You might not have believed it, but it was told. I can assure you it was told.

Yes Homedawg and others were dead on right about autry. I was one of the ones that was wrong. Homedawgs one of the most dependable info guys on this board

[Coach34]

I take message board talk with a grain of salt from the majority of y’all. Sources are wrong sometimes. Hell no one could confirm Autry was one until the KSU game. The odds we had that many different starters out in our first P5 game of the season was low and the probability reflected that.

Yeah well the info from Elitedawgs has been better than any other State site since it started 6 years ago. Hell, Rosebowl wouldnt even acknowledge the suspensions until August. News of Mullen leaving was broken before the Egg Bowl here. This is where you come to get the correct info.

[Coach007]

But we knew coming in to the season we had suspensions and injuries happen. So no- they werent. I and others said for months we had suspensions coming

Was there a public list of how many and who?

Is there ALWAYS this many injuries?

The answer to both =s NO

[dawgday166]

Was there a public list of how many and who?

Is there ALWAYS this many injuries?

The answer to both =s NO

Probably not but without looking it up I can guarantee you this. The probability of us winning 11 games going into last season was MUCH higher than going into this season. I didn't have to do any math to know that either.

[Homedawg]

Was there a public list of how many and who?

Is there ALWAYS this many injuries?

The answer to both =s NO
As for the public list, well one was given here. Again you chose not to believe multiple people. Injuries... we've had a few Parker for 2 games. Stevens for one. Backup center for one and Williams has been hobbled but hasn't missed a game. Gibson for 2. Guidry for one. While those are unfortunate, we were deep at OL, and none are out for the year and part of it. It happens. Not sure what you are looking for.

[dantheman4248]

Probably not but without looking it up I can guarantee you this. The probability of us winning 11 games going into last season was MUCH higher than going into this season. I didn't have to do any math to know that either.

I agree with this and am not arguing. I had my list to find my best bets for win totals on the year for everyone. 11 this year was more likely than 6 at that time. As for the information about suspensions and ED being the place for MSU news, I don’t disagree with that; however, it’s hard to sift through conflicting posters that seem legit and discern what’s the truth. Especially when Autry played in the USM game. It’s hard to believe our coach used him on that game but here we are. Whether you think we needed him or not that game, the decision to use him and it be one of his four does make you feel sad for the season.

[Coach34]

Was there a public list of how many and who?

We pretty much kept telling you who it was and that our DL problems were going to be hard to deal with. It's not our fault you dont listen.

Injuries happen- part of the game and you have to adjust. I lost my 2nd best OL guy for the year on the 2nd play of the season to the turf monster. It causes problems but you have to overcome them. You have no choice.

[dawgday166]

I agree with this and am not arguing. I had my list to find my best bets for win totals on the year for everyone. 11 this year was more likely than 6 at that time. As for the information about suspensions and ED being the place for MSU news, I don’t disagree with that; however, it’s hard to sift through conflicting posters that seem legit and discern what’s the truth. Especially when Autry played in the USM game. It’s hard to believe our coach used him on that game but here we are. Whether you think we needed him or not that game, the decision to use him and it be one of his four does make you feel sad for the season.

What kinda ground rules, assumptions, and initial values were you using. Those would have a lot to do with your results. I don't believe there is any authentic way the probability for 11 wins was greater than only 6 wins.

[Homedawg]

11 was NEVER more likely than 6, injuries and suspensions be damned. Never!!

[basedog]

We wont have another team as talented as last season for quite awhile.

Defense yes, but not so much with the offense.

[Homedawg]

Defense yes, but not so much with the offense.

Last year's offense- Jenkins, Calhoun in NFL. Williams will join them. Hill NFL. Williams all sec back before. Phillips and Reese also potential nfl guys. Don't remember another team w more nfl talent on offense. I know WR had some holes. I'll buy that....

[Coach34]

Last year's offense- Jenkins, Calhoun in NFL. Williams will join them. Hill NFL. Williams all sec back before. Phillips and Reese also potential nfl guys. Don't remember another team w more nfl talent on offense. I know WR had some holes. I'll buy that....

exactly- they try to act like the offense wasnt talented when it clearly was- it just wasnt built to be soft like our new staff wants it to be. A coach adapts to his players and amends his offense/defense to what he has. Shoop adjusted the D away from a 3-4 to a 4 man front without any problems. Moorhead adjusted the offense to his players strengths for the Auburn game last year and won a huge game. But refused to stay with it because it wasnt what he wanted to run. He wanted to run his O instead of what was best for the team. Thats the bottom line. We had plenty of talent on offense last year- we just didnt use it correctly.

And dont give the crap about installing his O for the long term of the program. Neither QB we are playing was here last year.

[dawgday166]

exactly- they try to act like the offense wasnt talented when it clearly was- it just wasnt built to be soft like our new staff wants it to be. A coach adapts to his players and amends his offense/defense to what he has. Shoop adjusted the D away from a 3-4 to a 4 man front without any problems. Moorhead adjusted the offense to his players strengths for the Auburn game last year and won a huge game. But refused to stay with it because it wasnt what he wanted to run. He wanted to run his O instead of what was best for the team. Thats the bottom line. We had plenty of talent on offense last year- we just didnt use it correctly.

And dont give the crap about installing his O for the long term of the program. Neither QB we are playing was here last year.

You forgot to include that any coach with half a brain knew this year was gonna be a rebuilding year with younger players. Start the total install this year. Adapt the O last year as you said.

[Coach007]

exactly- they try to act like the offense wasnt talented when it clearly was- it just wasnt built to be soft like our new staff wants it to be. A coach adapts to his players and amends his offense/defense to what he has. Shoop adjusted the D away from a 3-4 to a 4 man front without any problems. Moorhead adjusted the offense to his players strengths for the Auburn game last year and won a huge game. But refused to stay with it because it wasnt what he wanted to run. He wanted to run his O instead of what was best for the team. Thats the bottom line. We had plenty of talent on offense last year- we just didnt use it correctly.

And dont give the crap about installing his O for the long term of the program. Neither QB we are playing was here last year.

Most of that Defense had played in a 4 man front before. To act like that is and equal transition in offense is dishonest. Moorhead is a great coach who has succeeded at every level. We did not hire him to continue Mullen's offense. Our QB couldn't hit the broadside of a friggin barn, and Mullen never trained WRs worth a crap.

1- Stevens grew up in his offense
2- Shrader was 77% this weekend.

Moorhead is our coach and will be for the next 3 years minimum. He should be, and is doing a HELL of a JOB!

[Coach34]

Most of that Defense had played in a 4 man front before. To act like that is and equal transition in offense is dishonest. Moorhead is a great coach who has succeeded at every level. We did not hire him to continue ******* offense. Our QB couldn't hit the broadside of a friggin barn, and Mullen never trained WRs worth a crap.

1- Stevens grew up in his offense
2- Shrader was 77% this weekend.

Moorhead is our coach and will be for the next 3 years minimum. He should be, and is doing a HELL of a JOB!

Moorhead has underwhelmed but is recruiting well. The jury is still out for sure Mrs Moorhead and we will see what happens.

[Coach007]

Moorhead has underwhelmed but is recruiting well. The jury is still out for sure Mrs Moorhead and we will see what happens.

Nah! He's a beast on hiring and on offense. When did Mullen ever recruit a kid that set a record on his first start as a true freshman? Why didn't Mullen have a RB rush for over 100 yards in the first 4 games of a season? This offense is the best offense Ms ST has ever had.

[Homedawg]

Nah! He's a beast on hiring and on offense. When did Mullen ever recruit a kid that set a record on his first start as a true freshman? Why didn't Mullen have a RB rush for over 100 yards in the first 4 games of a season? This offense is the best offense Ms ST has ever had.

This offense? As in this season?? Clarification....

[msstate7]

Nah! He's a beast on hiring and on offense. When did Mullen ever recruit a kid that set a record on his first start as a true freshman? Why didn't Mullen have a RB rush for over 100 yards in the first 4 games of a season? This offense is the best offense Ms ST has ever had.

Total offense = 71st
Yds/play = 49th
Scoring offense = 60th

This offense is historic!

[Tbonewannabe]

To act like we will never have the talent we had last year is the other extreme to 007 thinking we could win 11 this year. We probably have as much talent on the Oline now especially with the freshmen. Gay and Dantzler are both early draft guys even if Errol isn't. Cole has looked good in spurts but this is his first year actually playing from Juco. Abram was a lot better his second year. Rivers has been disappointing but still solid. Autry will probably get drafted unless the suspension hurts him.

If Stevens stays healthy then he could be a mid round draft pick along with Kylin being an early pick. There is talent behind all these guys so the woe is me attitude is just acting like little bitches. Who knows if Moorhead is the right guy but he is a hell of a lot better than several other coaches in the SEC.

[Coach34]

Why didn't Mullen have a RB rush for over 100 yards in the first 4 games of a season? This offense is the best offense Ms ST has ever had.

A) because Mullen usually started the season playing LSU and Auburn in the 1st games of the season.

B) Because Mullen had his QB get as many carries as his TB

C) JRob had 100-plus in games 2-5 in 2014. Dak or JRob had 100-plus in 6 straight games that year. JoMo having a weak schedule to start the season doesnt make for a great offense. We played a soft early schedule yet are 60th in scoring currently and 71st in Total O. Mullen finished 16th in the country in 2014 in scoring O. JoMo wont touch that

[dawgday166]

We'll see at end of year and at draft. I haven't said we couldn't do it again but it is and will be infrequent.

[dantheman4248]

What kinda ground rules, assumptions, and initial values were you using. Those would have a lot to do with your results. I don't believe there is any authentic way the probability for 11 wins was greater than only 6 wins.

99%, 99%, 90%, 80%, 45%, 95%, 35%, 35%, 99%, 15%, 99%, 95%.

Gave 1.36% for 6 wins or lower; 6.25% for 11 wins or higher.

ETA: Yes I was a bit of a homer on them. Oh well. It was preseason and I bought the hype. Don’t argue with me on what they are now because believe they are different now. Tell me Shrader is starting UK and Tommy has a bum arm for half of KSU, Shrader plays the other half and my percentages go way down for us.

[msstate7]

99%, 99%, 90%, 80%, 45%, 95%, 35%, 35%, 99%, 15%, 99%, 95%.

Gave 1.36% for 6 wins or lower; 6.25% for 11 wins or higher.

So we've already lost a game you gave us a 90% chance of winning. 45% this week is quite generous

[dantheman4248]

So we've already lost a game you gave us a 90% chance of winning. 45% this week is quite generous

Read the edit.

And yes these are probably diff values from when we had our discussion. I fiddled with them then left it alone once the season started.

[Tbonewannabe]

So we've already lost a game you gave us a 90% chance of winning. 45% this week is quite generous

And if Auburn loses their starting QB along with their best defensive players then you would think that would change the percentages also. Let's not act like the outlook for the season didn't change by losing Stevens and several of our best defensive players. Gay and Autry make our defense a hell of a lot better. I would say having both and a healthy Stevens would have changed the outcome of the KSU game.

[dawgday166]

99%, 99%, 90%, 80%, 45%, 95%, 35%, 35%, 99%, 15%, 99%, 95%.

Gave 1.36% for 6 wins or lower; 6.25% for 11 wins or higher.

ETA: Yes I was a bit of a homer on them. Oh well. It was preseason and I bought the hype. Don?t argue with me on what they are now because believe they are different now. Tell me Shrader is starting UK and Tommy has a bum arm for half of KSU, Shrader plays the other half and my percentages go way down for us.

You know ... when your modeling something most of the time there is a lot of uncertainty. That's why you have to use your brain. As I said earlier you may understand probability and statistics, but it's obvious you don't understand football.

ETA: just getting those results should have caused you to question your GRAs and ICs.

[Coach007]

A) because Mullen usually started the season playing LSU and Auburn in the 1st games of the season.

B) Because Mullen had his QB get as many carries as his TB

C) JRob had 100-plus in games 2-5 in 2014. Dak or JRob had 100-plus in 6 straight games that year. JoMo having a weak schedule to start the season doesnt make for a great offense. We played a soft early schedule yet are 60th in scoring currently and 71st in Total O. Mullen finished 16th in the country in 2014 in scoring O. JoMo wont touch that


Why are you making excuses? Why are we moving to 2014? Mullen was hired in 2009 and had major talent on that team and in year 1 SUCKED. Why could he not adapt? He finished once above the ranking of 4th in the SECW...6 of the years at 5th. He finished ranked 2 times. Mullen won 14 games in 2 years. In his first year, he did not beat a top 20 team.

Moorhead is already in a high level. His first season ended rank and you yourself stated he is recruiting well. Moorhead is at 11 wins in his second year. And he has beaten top 20 teams... In fact a top 10 team.


The fact is that his system is a more open one. It's a better offense.

[Tbonewannabe]

You know ... when your modeling something most of the time there is a lot of uncertainty. That's why you have to use your brain. As I said earlier you may understand probability and statistics, but it's obvious you don't understand football.

ETA: just getting those results should have caused you to question your GRAs and ICs.

Hell, I question 15% against Bama more than anything else in his probabilities. I would put it at 1% unless their entire team gets the screaming dookies.

[Coach007]

So we've already lost a game you gave us a 90% chance of winning. 45% this week is quite generous

What was it last year when they were a top 10 team?

[dantheman4248]

You know ... when your modeling something most of the time there is a lot of uncertainty. That's why you have to use your brain. As I said earlier you may understand probability and statistics, but it's obvious you don't understand football.

ETA: just getting those results should have caused you to question your GRAs and ICs.

I didn’t question it because I came into this year with the belief that second in the west was wide open. Any of the 4 of us, aTm, auburn, or LSU could grab (some with a higher chance than others, but still). Add to that my thought seeing 6 gimmes... yea my data made sense to me.

To put it another way, even if we went 11-1 with a loss to Bama I don’t think it would have been right to call us a top 10 team. I feel the West isn’t that good. Another factor is that once you cross the -500 threshold in gambling on CFB, the favorite wins an obscenely higher amount. So while you may disagree with my values at 99% for certain games, I felt they were reasonable.

[dawgday166]

Hell, I question 15% against Bama more than anything else in his probabilities. I would put it at 1% unless their entire team gets the screaming dookies.

Lol ... Yea the inputs do seem somewhat weighted towards a desired outcome.

[dantheman4248]

Lol ... Yea the inputs do seem somewhat weighted towards a desired outcome.

I was swayed by computer models. They gave us even more of a chance than I did preseason. 7 and I both discussed that being weird.

[dawgday166]

I was swayed by computer models. They gave us even more of a chance than I did preseason. 7 and I both discussed that being weird.

What I have concluded is most doing the models like Moorhead. FPI loves him.

[Coach34]

Why are you making excuses? Why are we moving to 2014? Mullen was hired in 2009 and had major talent on that team and in year 1 SUCKED. Why could he not adapt? He finished once above the ranking of 4th in the SECW...6 of the years at 5th. He finished ranked 2 times. Mullen won 14 games in 2 years. In his first year, he did not beat a top 20 team.

Moorhead is already in a high level. His first season ended rank and you yourself stated he is recruiting well. Moorhead is at 11 wins in his second year. And he has beaten top 20 teams... In fact a top 10 team.


The fact is that his system is a more open one. It's a better offense.

Moorhead inherited a much better program than Mullen- that?s not even questionable

2014 was brought up because you said this offense was the best in school history when it?s nowhere close

You are straight trolling now. Well done

[Coach007]

Moorhead inherited a much better program than Mullen- that?s not even questionable

2014 was brought up because you said this offense was the best in school history when it?s nowhere close

You are straight trolling now. Well done

I question it. There was a ton of talent on that team. A LOT of NFL players.

I said the Offense, as in system. It's the last sentence.

This offense, as in system, is light years ahead of Mullen's- And within a year Moorhead was able to get 2 QBs in that can complete passes. That's one more than the former guy. At that rate we will have 18 in the same amount of years. IT will attract more WRs that can catch too. And all of it makes for a better run game. It's a deeper dimension than anything the former HC dreamed of.

[dawgday166]

I question it. There was a ton of talent on that team. A LOT of NFL players.

I said the Offense, as in system. It's the last sentence.

This offense, as in system, is light years ahead of Mullen's- And within a year Moorhead was able to get 2 QBs in that can complete passes. That's one more than the former guy. At that rate we will have 18 in the same amount of years. IT will attract more WRs that can catch too. And all of it makes for a better run game. It's a deeper dimension than anything the former HC dreamed of.

Light years?? I would question that somewhat cause Mullen's type of offense has won 3 Natty's.

In final analysis tho football still comes back to blocking and tackling ... and running and catching. It doesn't matter what kind of offense you run if you don't block. Last year ... we didn't block or catch. That's on the O and Joe. We'll see how this year turns out cause we haven't played anyone real good yet.

[confucius say]

My bigger concern with joe is not x and o, but running a program both on and off the field. I think he will get there though.

[basedog]

Sec West is brutal, hopefully Joe can balance this roster and we can get some team speed. Losing your QB has hurt this team's production some on offense. Yes Shrader will get better such as last week performance shows, but this offense is better than last years except for some many injuries this year in OL, even Hill got banged up, plus his back up running backs.

[basedog]

Moorhead inherited a much better program than Mullen- that?s not even questionable

2014 was brought up because you said this offense was the best in school history when it?s nowhere close

You are straight trolling now. Well done

Neither was last year's offense.

[Tbonewannabe]

Light years?? I would question that somewhat cause Mullen's type of offense has won 3 Natty's.

In final analysis tho football still comes back to blocking and tackling ... and running and catching. It doesn't matter what kind of offense you run if you don't block. Last year ... we didn't block or catch. That's on the O and Joe. We'll see how this year turns out cause we haven't played anyone real good yet.

Yeah 007 is looking on the bright side. I don't know if he is going so far that way because you have several people saying Joe is Croom level bad. The truth is, the verdict is still out. We don't truly know what we have in Joe yet. We know he can beat the shit out of bad teams and he is recruiting well. We know he has the ability to outcoach some guys (AU and A&M) but also look like a deer in the headlights (UK, UF, and LSU). We saw both of those with Mullen so I am not ready to just throw Joe to the wayside yet because we are just as likely to get a Morris or Pruitt as we are a Dabo Swinney.

We know that Joe was kind of stuck with Fitz as the starter but Fitz had an uphill battle being out until August. Fitz looked a lot better the back half of the season when he had been in the offense for a while. This year it is a little hard to judge the team because of the injury to Stevens causing a freshman to start (never a good thing in the SEC) along with all of the suspensions and along with all of the freshmen at DT. This is a line of scrimmage league and having that many freshmen on the Dline is a HUGE disadvantage. We had Chris Jones and Jeffrey Simmons who didn't start as freshmen and none of the guys out there now are that level.

We just need to get to a bowl game this year and continue to recruit. If nothing else, the cupboard will not be bare of talent. We should see what kind of team Joe really will put on the field next year unless we self impose the damn Death Penalty for someone getting a free pair of shoes.

[BrunswickDawg]

I question it. There was a ton of talent on that team. A LOT of NFL players.

I said the Offense, as in system. It's the last sentence.

This offense, as in system, is light years ahead of Mullen's- And within a year Moorhead was able to get 2 QBs in that can complete passes. That's one more than the former guy. At that rate we will have 18 in the same amount of years. IT will attract more WRs that can catch too. And all of it makes for a better run game. It's a deeper dimension than anything the former HC dreamed of.

10 future NFL players contributed on Defense in '09 and 4 on offense - including our all-time leading rusher. But, we had a QB who regressed under a new system and wasn't a fit for what the coach wanted to do on offense and that cost us a couple of games that were winnable (LSU, Houston). That offense was also sloppy and were #11 in the SEC in fumbles and INTs, and sputtered at times in games you thought we should have blown people out (MTSU, Vandy). Then, in 2010, we have a lot of those guys back, got a QB who fit the system, and after a slow start (1-2) rattled off a pretty good season.

A couple of points I'm trying to make - there are many similarities between the Croom/Mullen transition and the Mullen/Moorhead transition then I think many people should look at. A lot of that involves learning your team and talents, figuring out the league, and understanding your own strengths and weaknesses as a coach and staff. It can cost teams winnable games as they work their way thru it. Also - as time moves on we tend to remember a lot more of the "good" then the "bad" - and some of that comes out when people talk about '09. People remember us "competing" in games that we hadn't before, but forget other things. A case in point is Tyson Lee. While Lee was by no means an SEC QB - he was a 1st team JUCO All-American QB, who had been a relatively effective game manager in '08. In fact he had arguably been the most productive QB in the Croom Error (I know that doesn't say much), throwing for the most yards in a single season, had the second most TD passes, and the highest QB rating. Most people viewed him as one of the few bright spots of '08, a team leader, and someone who should adjust to the new offense. He then went from 7 TD/5 INT in '08 to 4 TD/14INT in '09. His yards and comp% were about the same, but obviously he was out of his element on offense and he suffered in making the throws needed. Not to mention the beating he took at 5'9" trying to run read-option plays and make the correct read and pitches.

I'm not saying that Dan inherited a better situation, or a better team or talent, just that transitions take time and aren't as cut and dry as people want to believe sometimes. People aren't certain Joe will work out, but at the same point in 2010 when we were 1-2 people weren't sure Dan was going to make it either.

[Tbonewannabe]

10 future NFL players contributed on Defense in '09 and 4 on offense - including our all-time leading rusher. But, we had a QB who regressed under a new system and wasn't a fit for what the coach wanted to do on offense and that cost us a couple of games that were winnable (LSU, Houston). That offense was also sloppy and were #11 in the SEC in fumbles and INTs, and sputtered at times in games you thought we should have blown people out (MTSU, Vandy). Then, in 2010, we have a lot of those guys back, got a QB who fit the system, and after a slow start (1-2) rattled off a pretty good season.

A couple of points I'm trying to make - there are many similarities between the Croom/Mullen transition and the Mullen/Moorhead transition then I think many people should look at. A lot of that involves learning your team and talents, figuring out the league, and understanding your own strengths and weaknesses as a coach and staff. It can cost teams winnable games as they work their way thru it. Also - as time moves on we tend to remember a lot more of the "good" then the "bad" - and some of that comes out when people talk about '09. People remember us "competing" in games that we hadn't before, but forget other things. A case in point is Tyson Lee. While Lee was by no means an SEC QB - he was a 1st team JUCO All-American QB, who had been a relatively effective game manager in '08. In fact he had arguably been the most productive QB in the Croom Error (I know that doesn't say much), throwing for the most yards in a single season, had the second most TD passes, and the highest QB rating. Most people viewed him as one of the few bright spots of '08, a team leader, and someone who should adjust to the new offense. He then went from 7 TD/5 INT in '08 to 4 TD/14INT in '09. His yards and comp% were about the same, but obviously he was out of his element on offense and he suffered in making the throws needed. Not to mention the beating he took at 5'9" trying to run read-option plays and make the correct read and pitches.

I'm not saying that Dan inherited a better situation, or a better team or talent, just that transitions take time and aren't as cut and dry as people want to believe sometimes. People aren't certain Joe will work out, but at the same point in 2010 when we were 1-2 people weren't sure Dan was going to make it either.

Don't start bringing facts into this. Don't you know Dan took over a team of 5 foot 110 lb white boys and turned them into a team competing with Bama. Joe took over the 1984 Chicago Bears and barely got to the Outback Bowl.

[Homedawg]

Joe's own words, "we want to elevate the program from good to great".... I didn't say it he did...........I'm giving him a chance to prove it, but I have my doubts after 17 games. Would love for him to prove me wrong.

[Tbonewannabe]

Joe's own words, "we want to elevate the program from good to great".... I didn't say it he did...........I'm giving him a chance to prove it, but I have my doubts after 17 games. Would love for him to prove me wrong.

If Joe hadn't ran his mouth as much as he did when he got here, people would probably give him more slack. I think he either believed in the fact he could get Fitz to 60-65% passing or that Fitz was better than he was. Both of those assumptions were wrong whether it was a coaching issue, QB + WR issue, or some of both.

I will say with Tommy at QB, the offense looked a lot more consistent than it did last year. Shrader looked better against UK than he did against KSU. It could be just knowing he was the starter or just got some of the jitters out against KSU.

[Homedawg]

Both are beatable.

Auburn:

- They are the most over rated team in history.
- QB is throwing 52%
- No real rushing threat
- have to protect the outside.



LSU:

- gave up 120 to 1 RB this weekend from Vandy. In total, they gave up 145 yards rushing. With Hill, Gibson (who was almost ready for todays game) and Stevens keeping them honest, we ca slow down or limit the LSU offense and touches.

- You would think that Our home stadium, crowd and our defense would be up to the task of getting some stops.


Those games get you in the poll and ranked high.

We should be able to beat Ark, Ole Miss, UT, TAMU and Abilene without them. Why not give ourselves a chance?

I needed a good laugh!!!

[BeardoMSU]

I needed a good laugh!!!

Yikes, lol.

His anthology of posts are going age like a box of fine wine...