Gambling thread

[CadaverDawg]

What games are you guys looking at for the weekend? I had a crazy weekend where I hit on a few big bets this past weekend, so I'm ready to start looking at week 4.

Arkansas being favored by 21 over anybody anywhere seems high to me.

I like Texas -5 vs Okla St

Thoughts? Who do you guys like this week?

[timotheus]

BYU over washington

[dantheman4248]

I've been having success with ML parlays lately (I bet a high volume of bets). These are the games I like

Day___________Date___________Time____________ML___ ___________Pick____________Location__Opponent
Thursday______ 19-Sep_________ 8:00 PM_________ +175___________ Houston_________ Away____ Tulane
Friday________ 20-Sep_________ 9:00 PM_________ -190____________ Utah___________ Away____ USC
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 12:00 PM________ +115___________ Cal____________ Away____ Ole Miss
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 12:00 PM________ -650____________ Florida_________ Home____ Tennessee
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 12:00 PM________ -1200___________ ISU____________ Home____ ULM
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 12:00 PM________ -370____________ Mich St_________ Away____ NW
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 1:00 PM_________ -800____________ CC_____________ Away____ Umass
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 2:00 PM_________ +135___________ ULL____________ Away____ Ohio
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:00 PM_________ -1000___________ Troy___________ Away____ Akron
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -190____________ A&M____________ Home____ Auburn
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -480____________ UCF____________ Away____ Pitt
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -230____________ Wash_________ __ Away____ BYU
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -350____________ Kent St__________ Home____ BGSU
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ +200___________ Louisville_________ Away____ FSU
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -400____________ UAB_____________ Home____ USA
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 7:00 PM_________ -1300___________ NCST____________ Home____ Ball St
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 7:00 PM_________ -400____________ Oregon___________ Away____ Stanford
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 7:30 PM_________ +175___________ Ok St____________ Away____ Texas
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 7:30 PM_________ -1300___________ UNT_____________ Home____ UTSA
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 8:00 PM_________ -500____________ Nebraska_________ Away____ Illinois
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 8:00 PM_________ -600____________ Nevada__________ Away____ UTEP
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 9:00 PM_________ -300____________ ASU_____________ Home____ Colo
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 10:30 PM________ -1000___________ Wazzu___________ Home____ UCLA

Basically I'll do things like ISU, Troy, NCST, UNT, Wazzu parlayed together which pays $52 per $100 bet. Getting better than 1:2 odds for 5 games that are -1000 (which I feel like are almost mortal locks, look it up but like once you hit the -500 its 95% win territory in CFB) just offers too much value not to try.

Hell, give it a whirl with a parlay of Florida, UCF, Nebraska, and Nevada. Pays $95 per $100 bet. That's better than -110 and there is definitely a higher than 50% chance those 4 favorites win. (Not necessarily with those 4 teams but 4 bets of similar value give you a great deal).

The added bonus is not worrying about a team playing to win by a spread. Strictly win the game is all you care about so no backdoor cover bad beats.

[Fader21]

Just asking for Central Ms guys. Do you just take a trip over to Vicksburg or up to Philly, and do you do this during the week or early Sat. I don't think there is a way to do it (legally) of course through an app. Hopefully yet.

[Jack Lambert]

Do the sports books in Miss casinos use their own spreads or they using out side sources. I have heard that each casino uses their own. If so are any of you using their spreads?

[Okrastar1]

At this point how do you not love Kentucky +7, seems like free money to me?

[Scared_Hitless]

At this point how do you not love Kentucky +7, seems like free money to me?

Some things are certain death, taxes, and never bet on MS State Athletics. Granted if you have the money and do it we will probably win by 30.

[sonofozarka]

I've been having success with ML parlays lately (I bet a high volume of bets). These are the games I like

Day___________Date___________Time____________ML___ ___________Pick____________Location__Opponent
Thursday______ 19-Sep_________ 8:00 PM_________ +175___________ Houston_________ Away____ Tulane
Friday________ 20-Sep_________ 9:00 PM_________ -190____________ Utah___________ Away____ USC
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 12:00 PM________ +115___________ Cal____________ Away____ Ole Miss
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 12:00 PM________ -650____________ Florida_________ Home____ Tennessee
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 12:00 PM________ -1200___________ ISU____________ Home____ ULM
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 12:00 PM________ -370____________ Mich St_________ Away____ NW
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 1:00 PM_________ -800____________ CC_____________ Away____ Umass
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 2:00 PM_________ +135___________ ULL____________ Away____ Ohio
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:00 PM_________ -1000___________ Troy___________ Away____ Akron
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -190____________ A&M____________ Home____ Auburn
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -480____________ UCF____________ Away____ Pitt
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -230____________ Wash_________ __ Away____ BYU
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -350____________ Kent St__________ Home____ BGSU
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ +200___________ Louisville_________ Away____ FSU
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 3:30 PM_________ -400____________ UAB_____________ Home____ USA
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 7:00 PM_________ -1300___________ NCST____________ Home____ Ball St
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 7:00 PM_________ -400____________ Oregon___________ Away____ Stanford
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 7:30 PM_________ +175___________ Ok St____________ Away____ Texas
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 7:30 PM_________ -1300___________ UNT_____________ Home____ UTSA
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 8:00 PM_________ -500____________ Nebraska_________ Away____ Illinois
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 8:00 PM_________ -600____________ Nevada__________ Away____ UTEP
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 9:00 PM_________ -300____________ ASU_____________ Home____ Colo
Saturday______ 21-Sep_________ 10:30 PM________ -1000___________ Wazzu___________ Home____ UCLA

Basically I'll do things like ISU, Troy, NCST, UNT, Wazzu parlayed together which pays $52 per $100 bet. Getting better than 1:2 odds for 5 games that are -1000 (which I feel like are almost mortal locks, look it up but like once you hit the -500 its 95% win territory in CFB) just offers too much value not to try.

Hell, give it a whirl with a parlay of Florida, UCF, Nebraska, and Nevada. Pays $95 per $100 bet. That's better than -110 and there is definitely a higher than 50% chance those 4 favorites win. (Not necessarily with those 4 teams but 4 bets of similar value give you a great deal).

The added bonus is not worrying about a team playing to win by a spread. Strictly win the game is all you care about so no backdoor cover bad beats.

After years of betting, ML parlays (mostly with heavy favorites) just like you said are what I've settled on as being the safest and best value bets.

To me, betting spreads are simply coin flips. No one knows how the flow of a game will go, if a team will add a late, meaningless score to cover like South Car did Saturday, or Florida getting that 75 yd TD run to cover when they were just trying to run out the clock.

Even the people that are the "best" at betting, what is their winning %? Scott Van Pelt is like 53% all time since he's started this "Winners" gig

[sonofozarka]

Just asking for Central Ms guys. Do you just take a trip over to Vicksburg or up to Philly, and do you do this during the week or early Sat. I don't think there is a way to do it (legally) of course through an app. Hopefully yet.

I was wondering this as well... I'm NOT driving over to Vicksburg or Philly every week, they're missing out on SO much revenue by not having an app and allowing us to place bets from anywhere in the state.

I WANT to do it legally in MS, but like most others I assume, we're still betting the same ways we were before.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Just asking for Central Ms guys. Do you just take a trip over to Vicksburg or up to Philly, and do you do this during the week or early Sat. I don't think there is a way to do it (legally) of course through an app. Hopefully yet.


Do the sports books in Miss casinos use their own spreads or they using out side sources. I have heard that each casino uses their own. If so are any of you using their spreads?

Do it during the week, it's too crowded most Saturday mornings. Ameristar has the best sports bar and have live attendants to take bet, but lack kiosks. They use William Hill. Riverwalk has a ton of kiosks, but good luck finding an attendant. They are BetAmerica. I like the kiosks for parlays and teasers and too see what my payout would be with different scenarios. I've asked about an App and Ameristar may have one soon, but no matter you won't be able to bet from Jackson or anywhere off the premises of the casino. It's in the Mississippi law that it has to be onsite.

[Maroonthirteen]

Never mind

[Scared_Hitless]

After years of betting, ML parlays (mostly with heavy favorites) just like you said are what I've settled on as being the safest and best value bets.

To me, betting spreads are simply coin flips. No one knows how the flow of a game will go, if a team will add a late, meaningless score to cover like South Car did Saturday, or Florida getting that 75 yd TD run to cover when they were just trying to run out the clock.

Even the people that are the "best" at betting, what is their winning %? Scott Van Pelt is like 53% all time since he's started this "Winners" gig

How many games do you normally settle on? 6 or 7 I assume for a nice little 50 to 75 dollar win?

[DownwardDawg]

Some things are certain death, taxes, and never bet on MS State Athletics. Granted if you have the money and do it we will probably win by 30.

Totally agree. I see no way we can win that game. But if I put money on Kentucky, we will beat their asses. Maybe I should go bet $100.

[msstate7]

Don't love anything this week... I was hoping Georgia would be single digits. I'll probably regret it, but I'm taking Michigan +3.5 at Wisconsin

[WPS]

Arkansas being favored by 21 over anybody anywhere seems high to me.



Offense looked completely different with Starkel at QB, just beat Colorado State by 21 after being favored by 10. But it wouldn't surprise me if SJSU covers either.

[dantheman4248]

After years of betting, ML parlays (mostly with heavy favorites) just like you said are what I've settled on as being the safest and best value bets.

To me, betting spreads are simply coin flips. No one knows how the flow of a game will go, if a team will add a late, meaningless score to cover like South Car did Saturday, or Florida getting that 75 yd TD run to cover when they were just trying to run out the clock.

Even the people that are the "best" at betting, what is their winning %? Scott Van Pelt is like 53% all time since he's started this "Winners" gig

Yea I'm trying to get a seasons worth of data set up around building a system out of this that should win its parlays at 75% and have a payout with odds of only 55% or better (so parlays with -125 or better odds basically). I feel like if I can get a bunch of data down this year to show profitability, I could be cleaning up shop by the end of the year. 20+% difference in winrate vs. payout is huge.

[sonofozarka]

How many games do you normally settle on? 6 or 7 I assume for a nice little 50 to 75 dollar win?

It depends really, seems like dantheman has more of a mathematical system down than I do.

I try to put enough games in the parlay to make the payout come close to 1:1 or 1:2 odds (winning $1 when risking $2, or -200) So sometimes I put in 12-15 games in these early weeks, but 10 of those might be a MSU vs ULL or Bama vs Duke type games.

But l probably try to put in more "sure things" than dantheman. There's really no point in putting in 35-50 point favorites, because they don't move the ML needle. I try to put mostly 12-28 point favorites in there

[sonofozarka]

For example, here were my 2 ML parlays Saturday:

1st one (Risked $65 to win $43.50)
OSU -970 vs Indiana
Penn St -900 vs Pitt
UGA -146000 vs Ark St
Notre Dame -23000 vs NMexico
Bama -2750 vs USCe
Northwestern -1040 vs UNLV
Auburn -25000 vs Kent St
Washington -1600 vs Hawaii
Clemson -3500 vs Cuse
OU -1900 vs UCLA
Texas -11000 vs Rice
Tenn -8500 vs Chattanooga
LSU -750000
Oregon -67500 vs Montana

Penn State was the biggest "risk" but I thought they would win comfortably.

Lost the 2nd one, but risked $25 to win $49
Ohio St
Bama
Cal -620 vs North Texas
Fla -335 vs UK
Washington
OU
Clemson
Nebraska -550 vs Northern Illinois
Michigan St -760 vs Arizona State (this is the one game that lost it, it's ALWAYS one upset that ruins it ha). Tennessee blew it for me in week 1, but I'm still slightly ahead doing this and some teasers and one game moneyline bets this year (ML bets on 3-7 point dogs like UK this week)

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

It depends really, seems like dantheman has more of a mathematical system down than I do.

I try to put enough games in the parlay to make the payout come close to 1:1 or 1:2 odds (winning $1 when risking $2, or -200) So sometimes I put in 12-15 games in these early weeks, but 10 of those might be a MSU vs ULL or Bama vs Duke type games.

But l probably try to put in more "sure things" than dantheman. There's really no point in putting in 35-50 point favorites, because they don't move the ML needle. I try to put mostly 12-28 point favorites in there

Can this be applied to the NFL too?

[dantheman4248]

Can this be applied to the NFL too?

NFL is more difficult to do when there is less room for error. You don't see constant weeks with 5+ -300 or higher favorites. (Generally -7 or higher spreads)

And the system I'm doing that is profitable so far is taking games from -300 or higher that I'm confident in and building a list then parlaying every combination that pays out 1:1 odds or better while maintaining a 75+% predicted win rate. (So basically I assign each of these games a percentage I believe the team I'm picking will win and have Excel calculate whether or not it meets this criteria). Generally I keep it to odds between -300 and -1500 as once you pass the -750 or so threshold, historically, teams win about 99% of the time irrespective of their odds at that point. That is to say that the deviation between -1500 and -5000 is so small that the cost-benefit for throwing on the -5000 is too much risk to a parlay for very little upside is comparison to the -1500.

These can go to shit quick if you get screwed by a big upset (BC -1400 vs. Kansas last week), but generally it's a game of "don't pick the team that gets upset" which you can usually tell who's likely to win rather than who wins by 15 points.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Great info, thanks for sharing!

[Choctaw Dawg]

Utah -4. Utah might win the Pac 12
Troy -17. Akron is awful
Louisville +6.5 This is the one I really like, Louisville is way better with Satterfield and have covered every game so far this year. Plus FSU is not great.
Washington State -19 Home Game and leach covers Pac 12 teams not named Washington easily

[sonofozarka]

Can this be applied to the NFL too?

I wouldn't use this strategy in the NFL, b/c just like dantheman said, there are no "sure things" in the NFL, and very few large spreads. I honestly wonder what the stats are for Vegas even favoring the eventual winning NFL team when the spread is under 5 points.

My strategy for the NFL is teasers sometimes, or just 1 game ML bets (or a 2 game ML parlay).

The only "sure things" I see in the NFL this week are the Patriots and Cowboys on the Moneyline, but even if you put those 2 teams in a ML parlay, a $100 risk only wins you $7. The probability of those 2 winning this weekend though is about as high as it gets in the NFL

[I seen it dawg]

Under in Michigan
Over in our game

[fishwater99]

NCAA
#11 Michigan (+3.5) over #13 WISCONSIN
BYU (+5.5) over #22 Washington
#8 Auburn (+4.5) over #17 TEXAS A&M
Louisville (+6.5) over FLORIDA ST.
SMU (+9.5) over #25 TCU
ILLINOIS (+12.5) over Nebraska

NFL
BUFFALO (-5.5) over Cincinnati
Denver (+8.5) over GREEN BAY
SEATTLE (-4.5) over New Orleans
SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) over Pittsburgh