State's updated FPI chances by game

[msstate7]

KSU = 74.3%
Kentucky = 71.8%
Auburn = 30.8%
Tenn = 69.8%
LSU = 23.4%
aTm = 32.5%
Ark = 84.1%
Bama = 17.0%
OM = 76.5%

If you put stock in this metric, we seem to be either a really strong favorite or a decided dog. 8 wins is there for the taking, and I'll be much happier with 8 this season than last

[RocketDawg]

17% chance with Bama is a lot higher than the <1% that most posters seem to think it is. I don't think we should just mail that game in.

[Commercecomet24]

You left out Abilene Christian lol. Yeah I'm thinking 8 and I'd be happy with that. I still think we have a shot at taking one or both from auburn or am. LSU and bama not so much.

[TrapGame]

I'm just not impressed with Auburn. The way Tulane pushed them around for four quarters at night in JH just didn't make me think they are some juggernaut. They have problems. I'd put that % closer to 45.5. They may have some things cleaned up and yes maybe they held back a little. Of course if we only scored 24 against Tulane at night in DWS this board would have melted like the witch in the Wizard of Oz.

We might play LSU and Bama close for a little while. Hell, we might get Farmer Fran that night instead of the Coach O that beat Texas. You never know.

[dawgday166]

I'd be happy with 8 wins right now.

ETA: As long as we look like we have a pulse in at least 3 of the 4 losses.

[msstate7]

I'd be happy with 8 wins right now.

ETA: As long as we look like we have a pulse in at least 3 of the 4 losses.

I like your ETA

[MetEdDawg]

KSU = 74.3%
Kentucky = 71.8%
Auburn = 30.8%
Tenn = 69.8%
LSU = 23.4%
aTm = 32.5%
Ark = 84.1%
Bama = 17.0%
OM = 76.5%

If you put stock in this metric, we seem to be either a really strong favorite or a decided dog. 8 wins is there for the taking, and I'll be much happier with 8 this season than last

Don't tell some folks on here we have that percentage to beat KSU. Haven't you heard they are going to run all over us? Just like that USM defense was going to give us problems.

[dantheman4248]

FPI definitely hates us as we’ve gone along. That KSU game was like 88%. Tennessee is only up to 69.8%?? Sheesh

[Todd4State]

Don't tell some folks on here we have that percentage to beat KSU. Haven't you heard they are going to run all over us? Just like that USM defense was going to give us problems.

I remember when they beat us 42-14 the year we beat Alabama in 1980! You youngin's better respect them!**

[Todd4State]

You left out Abilene Christian lol. Yeah I'm thinking 8 and I'd be happy with that. I still think we have a shot at taking one or both from auburn or am. LSU and bama not so much.

This is pretty much where I am right now. I think we should be putting as much effort into the Auburn game as we put into the LSU game in 2014. Really could have a similar impact.

[TrapGame]

This is pretty much where I am right now. I think we should be putting as much effort into the Auburn game as we put into the LSU game in 2014. Really could have a similar impact.

Absolutely 100% concur.

[Commercecomet24]

I remember when they beat us 42-14 the year we beat Alabama in 1980! You youngin's better respect them!**

Ugh bad memories! I was at that one and at the 7-6 loss where Bond had gotten in trouble and didn't play an we went with Tim Parenton at QB. Times have changed.

[Jack Lambert]

I'm just not impressed with Auburn. The way Tulane pushed them around for four quarters at night in JH just didn't make me think they are some juggernaut. They have problems. I'd put that % closer to 45.5. They may have some things cleaned up and yes maybe they held back a little. Of course if we only scored 24 against Tulane at night in DWS this board would have melted like the witch in the Wizard of Oz.

We might play LSU and Bama close for a little while. Hell, we might get Farmer Fran that night instead of the Coach O that beat Texas. You never know.

They are the same team last year but with a Less experience QB. That o line was not good last season. I am with you.

[Todd4State]

Ugh bad memories! I was at that one and at the 7-6 loss where Bond had gotten in trouble and didn't play an we went with Tim Parenton at QB. Times have changed.

For the better. I don't think any team has been affected more by the college football changes over the years than USM.

They went from a SEC caliber team to a Sun Belt caliber team over the course of 40 years. And it really started happening as early as the late 80's.

[Todd4State]

They are the same team last year but with a Less experience QB. That o line was not good last season. I am with you.

Their QB is mobile. That worries me for obvious reasons if you watched us the past two games.

[Commercecomet24]

For the better. I don't think any team has been affected more by the college football changes over the years than USM.

They went from a SEC caliber team to a Sun Belt caliber team over the course of 40 years. And it really started happening as early as the late 80's.

Exactly. It's lifted us and absolutely killed usm as far as getting sec type athletes. They just not in the ballpark anymore.

[Fred Garvin]

For the better. I don't think any team has been affected more by the college football changes over the years than USM.

They went from a SEC caliber team to a Sun Belt caliber team over the course of 40 years. And it really started happening as early as the late 80's.

Wouldn?t you say FSU?s rise is timed with USM?s decline? USM used to recruit heavily in that area.

[Todd4State]

Wouldn?t you say FSU?s rise is timed with USM?s decline? USM used to recruit heavily in that area.

I don't think so.

USM was a small school powerhouse in the 50's that moved up to D-I in the 60's and gradually built up to their peak which was essentially the early 80's. And then slowly became a victim of the college football landscape primarily because they couldn't get into a P5 conference. While at the same time some of their other old C-USA rivals like Memphis and Tulane were leaving the league leaving C-USA with mostly Sun Belt type teams.

FSU's rise began in the 70's when they hired Bobby Bowden and he built them up in the 80's and then got them in the ACC.

What really hurt USM in Florida is schools like Central Florida and South Florida moving up the ranks and taking some of the overlooked players from USM in their recruiting footprint. Same thing happened in Alabama- UAB, Troy, South Alabama, and Louisiana- La Tech, ULL, and ULM. Then the SEC became a giant which as Commerce said elevated MSU and Ole Miss over them in their backyard- which along with the recruiting technology reducing diamonds in the rough being a thing anymore has basically left them with the second tier players in Mississippi.

Also- Memphis and even Tulane moving up to the more prestigious AAC has also further shrunk the talent pool as well as those schools are starting to take players from USM in those regions as well in Mississippi. It also doesn't help them when someone like South Alabama hires Steve Campbell as their head coach.

[Commercecomet24]

I don't think so.

USM was a small school powerhouse in the 50's that moved up to D-I in the 60's and gradually built up to their peak which was essentially the early 80's. And then slowly became a victim of the college football landscape primarily because they couldn't get into a P5 conference. While at the same time some of their other old C-USA rivals like Memphis and Tulane were leaving the league leaving C-USA with mostly Sun Belt type teams.

FSU's rise began in the 70's when they hired Bobby Bowden and he built them up in the 80's and then got them in the ACC.

What really hurt USM in Florida is schools like Central Florida and South Florida moving up the ranks and taking some of the overlooked players from USM in their recruiting footprint. Same thing happened in Alabama- UAB, Troy, South Alabama, and Louisiana- La Tech, ULL, and ULM. Then the SEC became a giant which as Commerce said elevated MSU and Ole Miss over them in their backyard- which along with the recruiting technology reducing diamonds in the rough being a thing anymore has basically left them with the second tier players in Mississippi.

Also- Memphis and even Tulane moving up to the more prestigious AAC has also further shrunk the talent pool as well as those schools are starting to take players from USM in those regions as well in Mississippi. It also doesn't help them when someone like South Alabama hires Steve Campbell as their head coach.

That's an excellent description of the timeline and how usm lost their ability to get more high end players.

[CadaverDawg]

That Auburn % is too low. Not saying we win, but Auburn has done nothing that says they are that much better than us. I'll give them 60-40 due to home field, but I can't go more than that based on what I've seen so far. I give us 40% chance at worst in that game

[TrapGame]

That Auburn % is too low. Not saying we win, but Auburn has done nothing that says they are that much better than us. I'll give them 60-40 due to home field, but I can't go more than that based on what I've seen so far. I give us 40% chance at worst in that game

Is Tulane better than USM? Shrader made far better decisions with the ball than Nix. Tulane's DL was getting some good push against AU's OL. Nix left the pocket a lot b/c of it. Tulane's DL cannot be better than ours even with our inexperience.

[msstate7]

Is Tulane better than USM? Shrader made far better decisions with the ball than Nix. Tulane's DL was getting some good push against AU's OL. Nix left the pocket a lot b/c of it. Tulane's DL cannot be better than ours even with our inexperience.

Auburn total defense by game:
Oregon - 332 yds, 21 pts
Tulane - 223 yds, 6 pts

This will be the toughest challenge Stevens has faced in his career, by far

[BrunswickDawg]

Auburn total defense by game:
Oregon - 332 yds, 21 pts
Tulane - 223 yds, 6 pts

This will be the toughest challenge Stevens has faced in his career, by far

Well, that is a given since he hasn't faced much in the way of 1st string P5 competition in his career. I think AU is good defensively, but like another thread pointed out, they may be a lot like we were last year where the defense will keep them in position to win every game but the offense might not let them.

[dantheman4248]

Auburn total defense by game:
Oregon - 332 yds, 21 pts
Tulane - 223 yds, 6 pts

This will be the toughest challenge Stevens has faced in his career, by far

Auburn also didn’t / couldn’t take out their 1s at any point in either game, no?

Our defense playing like it has has felt a lot like 2014 just saying. UAB in week 2 scored the most points on us (excluding the bowl game).

Besides, total yardage is a bad measuring stat by itself. But yea, Auburn should be the toughest defense Tommy faces outside of Bama this season. With Auburn’s ineptitude on offense, I believe MSU getting to 20 points should put us in territory to win that game.

[msstate7]

Auburn also didn?t / couldn?t take out their 1s at any point in either game, no?

Our defense playing like it has has felt a lot like 2014 just saying. UAB in week 2 scored the most points on us (excluding the bowl game).

Besides, total yardage is a bad measuring stat by itself. But yea, Auburn should be the toughest defense Tommy faces outside of Bama this season. With Auburn?s ineptitude on offense, I believe MSU getting to 20 points should put us in territory to win that game.

What metric do you like best for defense?

BTW... total yardage is the stat that said we were #1 last year.

[dantheman4248]

What metric do you like best for defense?

There’s not a catch all or that would be used. Better to look at all these models and come to a consensus a la BCS.

[Scared_Hitless]

KSU FPI has swung due more to their improvement then us falling off. They look much better than a season ago regardless of competition. If you recall they almost lost to a DII school to open the season last year. Their coach appears to be the real deal, if he is successful you may see more successful head coaches at lower ranks get certain jobs. Not blue blood jobs of course.

[TrapGame]

Auburn total defense by game:
Oregon - 332 yds, 21 pts
Tulane - 223 yds, 6 pts

This will be the toughest challenge Stevens has faced in his career, by far

I didn't mention a damn thing about AU's defense.

B/c of AU's OL and Nix's inexperience as a freshman will be in this game.

That's ok bruh, you keep doing you.

[msstate7]

I didn't mention a damn thing about AU's defense.

B/c of AU's OL and Nix's inexperience as a freshman will be in this game.

That's ok bruh, you keep doing you.

We'll have to score 24 or more to have a shot imo that's why I mentioned Stevens. Let's hope his shoulder is healthy

[Pipedream]

What metric do you like best for defense?

BTW... total yardage is the stat that said we were #1 last year.

I think yards/play is the most effective defensive stat. Also like points/drive, but it's not as readily available as ypp. State is 99th in the country in yards/play right now btw.

[msstate7]

I think yards/play is the most effective defensive stat. Also like points/drive, but it's not as readily available as ypp. State is 99th in the country in yards/play right now btw.

Pts/drive would be great. Where do you get that?

ETA... it would be even better if it accounted for drives that put you in a position to score thus missed fgs and 4th down stops at goal line didn't taint it

[sleepy dawg]

I put some stock into it. FPI has actually proven to be quite accurate as far as models go. Last year they were one of the most accurate models against the spread and straight up, even beating all of Sagarins models in the against the spread. They take into account a lot of variables the a lot of other models don't take into account.

[msstate7]

I put some stock into it. FPI has actually proven to be quite accurate as far as models go. Last year they were one of the most accurate models against the spread and straight up, even beating all of Sagarins models in the against the spread. They take into account a lot of variables the a lot of other models don't take into account.

I'd think it gets more accurate as the season progresses. I keep up it early season, but usually take it with a grain of salt till around game 6

[StarkVegasSteve]

I understand LSU has looked good, but remember that the defense they were going against is still a Big 12 defense. I haven't shut the door on the possibility that we could pull an upset. If our offense keeps looking like they have then they'll do enough to keep us in it. Defense will definitely have to step up and force a couple of takeaways, but by that point in the season I think we'll know exactly what we have up front.

[msstate7]

I understand LSU has looked good, but remember that the defense they were going against is still a Big 12 defense. I haven't shut the door on the possibility that we could pull an upset. If our offense keeps looking like they have then they'll do enough to keep us in it. Defense will definitely have to step up and force a couple of takeaways, but by that point in the season I think we'll know exactly what we have up front.

On the flip side of that, we're 81st in total defense and 99th in yds/play after playing 2 G5 schools

[StarkVegasSteve]

On the flip side of that, we're 81st in total defense and 99th in yds/play after playing 2 G5 schools

Agreed. No doubt we haven't looked our best. Maybe I'm just hoping that by game 7 we'll have figured out what we do well and be able to utilize those strengths.

[msstate7]

Agreed. No doubt we haven't looked our best. Maybe I'm just hoping that by game 7 we'll have figured out what we do well and be able to utilize those strengths.

Could see gay in that game which would help. I just think we might be too outmatched. If (big if) burrow maintains the accuracy he displayed Saturday night, they're gonna give Bama a run. I'm hoping that was just a really hot night for burrow bc they have some legit WRs

[StarkVegasSteve]

Could see gay in that game which would help. I just think we might be too outmatched. If (big if) burrow maintains the accuracy he displayed Saturday night, they're gonna give Bama a run. I'm hoping that was just a really hot night for burrow bc they have some legit WRs

Was talking with someone Saturday night during their game and we both came to the conclusion that they resemble the 2013 LSU offense.

[Pollodawg]

I give us more of a shot v AU and especially ATM.

[Prediction? Pain.]

What metric do you like best for defense?

BTW... total yardage is the stat that said we were #1 last year.


I think yards/play is the most effective defensive stat. Also like points/drive, but it's not as readily available as ypp. State is 99th in the country in yards/play right now btw.


Pts/drive would be great. Where do you get that?

ETA... it would be even better if it accounted for drives that put you in a position to score thus missed fgs and 4th down stops at goal line didn't taint it

The FEI system at FootballOutsiders.com is drive-based and I believe it accounts for points-per-drive in one of its metrics (excluding garbage time), but it's not updated until mid-season. (That's way it should be, really. This early on, it's really tough to make apples-to-apples comparisons between teams across the country, let alone in the same conference, given the disparity of competition up to now.)

For points-per-play and yards-per-point, you can check out this site (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/stats/). I think all its stats are based only on FBS vs. FBS games, so be aware of that. For what it's worth -- and, again, right now, who knows -- our D is 33rd nationally in yards per point (measures how much your opponents have to work to score, so it goes to field position -- which is obviously huge from a scoring-defense perspective -- as much as defensive play) and 58th in opponent points per play (which is also going to be affected by field position to a degree along with big-play defense).

And 7, our D last year was 1st nationally in opponents' yards per play, too. And in yards per passing attempt. And in red zone TD%. Only 2nd in scoring D, though. Clemson robbed us by a tenth of a point per game. Missed it by that much . . . .

ETA: Given that the advanced stats that exclude garbage time aren't around yet, it may (or may not; again, it's early) be interesting to note the discrepancy in our D's raw total defensive stats and the quarter-by-quarter breakdown. Per TeamRanking's numbers, we're 53rd nationally in scoring D in 1st quarters, 40th in 2nd quarters, and 54th in 3rd quarters. Not elite, but not terrible. 4th quarters? 109th. Maybe a sign of garbage time skewing the stats and our perception? Or maybe an omen of future late-game collapses? We'll find out over the next few weeks.

ETA, pt. 2: Meant to also note that in FBS v. FBS games, our total D is 56th nationally. But, once again, it's early.

ETA, P. 3: Did I mention that it's early?

[msstate7]

The FEI system at FootballOutsiders.com is drive-based and I believe it accounts for points-per-drive in one of its metrics (excluding garbage time), but it's not updated until mid-season. (That's way it should be, really. This early on, it's really tough to make apples-to-apples comparisons between teams across the country, let alone in the same conference, given the disparity of competition up to now.)

For points-per-play and yards-per-point, you can check out this site (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/stats/). I think all its stats are based only on FBS vs. FBS games, so be aware of that. For what it's worth -- and, again, right now, who knows -- our D is 33rd nationally in yards per point (measures how much your opponents have to work to score, so it goes to field position -- which is obviously huge from a scoring-defense perspective -- as much as defensive play) and 58th in opponent points per play (which is also going to be affected by field position to a degree along with big-play defense).

And 7, our D last year was 1st nationally in opponents' yards per play, too. And in yards per passing attempt. And in red zone TD%. Only 2nd in scoring D, though. Clemson robbed us by a tenth of a point per game. Missed it by that much . . . .

As always, great info. Thanks

[tcdog70]

Exactly. It's lifted us and absolutely killed usm as far as getting sec type athletes. They just not in the ballpark anymore.

if i remember correctly-teams like Southern and Memphis State (as independents)had no problem getting players with low grades into school. Some of their players were SEC caliber player with bad grades. If you were State or Ole Miss you couldn't recruit these players.

[tcdog70]

Exactly. It's lifted us and absolutely killed usm as far as getting sec type athletes. They just not in the ballpark anymore.

if i remember correctly-teams like Southern and Memphis State (as independents)had no problem getting players with low grades into school. Some of their players were SEC caliber player with bad grades. If you were State or Ole Miss you couldn't recruit these players.

[sleepy dawg]

I'd think it gets more accurate as the season progresses. I keep up it early season, but usually take it with a grain of salt till around game 6

I'm sure it does, but unlike many systems, it isn't just based on this seasons historical results. It is looking at recruiting and who's left your program and many other variables, such as where the game is played (and not just home or away, but how far), and is 1 team on short rest, etc. There's so much data out there these days, and they're doing a good job of putting it to use.

Also, I don't know why people have to say things like "take it with a grain of salt" when it comes to future predictions, whether it be computer models or not. There is no system, human or otherwise, that will ever be able to pick games with anywhere near 100% accuracy. It seems like it would implied that something is trying to predict the unpredictable that it could very well be wrong.

[Todd4State]

The FEI system at FootballOutsiders.com is drive-based and I believe it accounts for points-per-drive in one of its metrics (excluding garbage time), but it's not updated until mid-season. (That's way it should be, really. This early on, it's really tough to make apples-to-apples comparisons between teams across the country, let alone in the same conference, given the disparity of competition up to now.)

For points-per-play and yards-per-point, you can check out this site (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/stats/). I think all its stats are based only on FBS vs. FBS games, so be aware of that. For what it's worth -- and, again, right now, who knows -- our D is 33rd nationally in yards per point (measures how much your opponents have to work to score, so it goes to field position -- which is obviously huge from a scoring-defense perspective -- as much as defensive play) and 58th in opponent points per play (which is also going to be affected by field position to a degree along with big-play defense).

And 7, our D last year was 1st nationally in opponents' yards per play, too. And in yards per passing attempt. And in red zone TD%. Only 2nd in scoring D, though. Clemson robbed us by a tenth of a point per game. Missed it by that much . . . .

ETA: Given that the advanced stats that exclude garbage time aren't around yet, it may (or may not; again, it's early) be interesting to note the discrepancy in our D's raw total defensive stats and the quarter-by-quarter breakdown. Per TeamRanking's numbers, we're 53rd nationally in scoring D in 1st quarters, 40th in 2nd quarters, and 54th in 3rd quarters. Not elite, but not terrible. 4th quarters? 109th. Maybe a sign of garbage time skewing the stats and our perception? Or maybe an omen of future late-game collapses? We'll find out over the next few weeks.

ETA, pt. 2: Meant to also note that in FBS v. FBS games, our total D is 56th nationally. But, once again, it's early.

ETA, P. 3: Did I mention that it's early?

I think the fourth quarter scoring can be partially explained by the suspensions. Whatever it is- it's concerning.

That said- it's early.

[RougeDawg]

Exactly. It's lifted us and absolutely killed usm as far as getting sec type athletes. They just not in the ballpark anymore.

I think the expansion and addition of the recruiting websites has really hurt the USM type programs. Add in the internet and instantaneous ability to review video of kids, those diamonds in the rough rarely fall through the cracks anymore.

Any coach at any program can view any kid across the nation from their office and then go after the ones they want. This was not much of an option up until the last 10-15 years or so. I think this is the main reason for the rise of bigger conference schools and the decline of the USMs of the college football world.