Lee Sterling on Bo Bounds this am

[TrapGame]

ULL is better than last year. The players have talked about this game all off season. Billy Napier's second year so they'll be better. State lost too many players off defense. Joe's offense is still unknown in year two by starting Stevens. MSU is a 21 point favorite but don't surprised in ULL covers. MSU 30 ULL 16

> Wow. We can't more than 30 on ULL we got problems. SEC defenses will eat us alive. We scored 56 last year and KT didn't know the system. As usually Lee Sterling is full of shit.

And then he talked about OM/Memphis:

Matt Corral with his legs, make plays. Matt has good arm too. Rich Rod and McIntyre were super off season hires. That 3-4 defense is a plus. Gonna be hard to stop Phillips. Memphis has no defense. The wrong team is favored OM 38 Memphis 34.

> Everything about OM is this game came out of his mouth as positive. There were no drawbacks, no caveats.

[RezDog7]

That guy was wrong more than he was right last year. Wouldn't worry about his takes.

[Commercecomet24]

Yeah I don't think much of sterlings predictions.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Another point that might actually have merit is if you bet on Boise St/FSU prior to the move to Tallahassee due to the hurricane, the bet is canceled.

[Jack Lambert]

And he is probably one of those guys who is all about recruiting stars and how that matters when he is talking about some of the other SEC teams. ULL recruiting- 2019 ranked 76, 2018 ranked 105, 2017 ranked 106, 2016 ranked 121.

[sleepy dawg]

ULL is better than last year. The players have talked about this game all off season. Billy Napier's second year so they'll be better. State lost too many players off defense. Joe's offense is still unknown in year two by starting Stevens. MSU is a 21 point favorite but don't surprised in ULL covers. MSU 30 ULL 16

> Wow. We can't more than 30 on ULL we got problems. SEC defenses will eat us alive. We scored 56 last year and KT didn't know the system. As usually Lee Sterling is full of shit.

And then he talked about OM/Memphis:

Matt Corral with his legs, make plays. Matt has good arm too. Rich Rod and McIntyre were super off season hires. That 3-4 defense is a plus. Gonna be hard to stop Phillips. Memphis has no defense. The wrong team is favored OM 38 Memphis 34.

> Everything about OM is this game came out of his mouth as positive. There were no drawbacks, no caveats.


I agree with him. I don't like betting week 1 b/c there's so many unknowns, but if I was betting those lines, I would definitely take ULL and OM.

[msstate7]

Both lines have moved toward om and ULL considerably

[Homedawg]

Nick played against them. Not KT

[ShotgunDawg]

Both lines have moved toward om and ULL considerably

I'll never understand why people give Vegas credit for where the line moves too. Seems like Vegas should only getting credit when the opening line is close to the final score

[HoopsDawg]

Yeah I don't think much of sterlings predictions.

Yesterday he said look for us to play both QBs like he thought KT was still on the team.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Both lines have moved toward om and ULL considerably

That's the public money coming in, right? And then the sharks will bet Memphis and MSU tonight?

[Commercecomet24]

Yesterday he said look for us to play both QBs like he thought KT was still on the team.

Exactly. Sterling seems to do these type things a lot. Seems he does very little research.

[msstate7]

That's the public money coming in, right? And then the sharks will bet Memphis and MSU tonight?

Maybe. I think our line moved bc of the suspensions news though

[TrapGame]

Nick played against them. Not KT

Yep, that was the second game not the first. My bad.

[TrapGame]

Yesterday he said look for us to play both QBs like he thought KT was still on the team.

He said the same thing this morning. We play both QBs in his scenario but only score 30. Joe's not pulling Tommy only 30 up if ULL is 14 down. That's Mullen pulling Dak the last 8 minutes of LSU game and they almost made a comeback.

[RiverCityDawg]

Maybe. I think our line moved bc of the suspensions news though

I think you're right and the public doesn't know it's only two starters. I will be very surprised if we don't cover 19.5.

[TrapGame]

And FWIW, I don't think Joe pulls Tommy until late, late. Like 3 minutes or less in the game. I think he wants Tommy to get as many live game reps as possible out of the gate.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

And FWIW, I don't think Joe pulls Tommy until late, late. Like 3 minutes or less in the game. I think he wants Tommy to get as many live game reps as possible out of the gate.

If the game is in hand going to the 4th I don't expect Tommy to play a snap in the 4th. He's not going to risk an injury late for some meaningless handoffs.

[TrapGame]

If the game is in hand going to the 4th I don't expect Tommy to play a snap in the 4th. He's not going to risk an injury late for some meaningless handoffs.

That's true. If Garrett is our guy next year Joe will be throwing him some significant playing time these first two or three games to get his feet wet.

[CadaverDawg]

I teased it anyway and got

MSU -13
Bama -26
Georgia -14
Texas -13
Oklahoma St -7

[MarketingBully]

Meh, Moorhead’s offenses destroys these types of teams. With an experienced QB running this system, I think we score 50+. Saying we only score 30 seems disingenuous to me and shows he’s just pulling that figure out of his ass.

[MarketingBully]

And I’m still holding myself to those figures. If TS and Hill don’t hit those marks, I’ll not post for 8 weeks and if they do I’ll keep posting. The guy who bet me was banned permanently anyway which makes me happy. If it goes poorly tomorrow, I won’t want to be on here as people will become more negative. I’m not going to post in the game thread either. I think this year I’m going to take a break from that even though I have no problems at all with game threads. Just my own personal preference.

[Cowbell]

That's true. If Garrett is our guy next year Joe will be throwing him some significant playing time these first two or three games to get his feet wet.

This and the fact we don?t have a backup with true experience. We have to play Schaeder soon and often. It wouldn?t surprise me if we need him at some point to start a game.

[MarketingBully]

If the game is in hand going to the 4th I don't expect Tommy to play a snap in the 4th. He's not going to risk an injury late for some meaningless handoffs.

Yep, I expect to see Shrader tomorrow. Very interested to see how he does. Moorhead wanted him for a very long time.

[Bothrops]

We will score 45+. If our defense allows for more than 17 points, it's going to be an up/down year. Lots of close wins and losses.

[NWADAWG]

I'll never understand why people give Vegas credit for where the line moves too. Seems like Vegas should only getting credit when the opening line is close to the final score

Vegas predictions aren't based on what they thing the actual score will be. It is based on what is gonna get equal bets on both sides. If you bet $100 and win - you get $100. If you bet $100 and lose - you pay $110. So if both sides are even, house wins 10% with no risk. Vegas only predicts how the betting population will see the 2 teams.

[gravedigger]

Both lines have moved toward om and ULL considerably

Seems like something significant happened with us since the line opened.

For the life of me, can?t remember what it was though.

[msstate7]

Seems like something significant happened with us since the line opened.

For the life of me, can?t remember what it was though.

Maybe it was the suspensions, which I suggested moved the line a few posts later. Couldn't read a few more before making a smart comment, huh?

[maroonmania]

That guy was wrong more than he was right last year. Wouldn't worry about his takes.

Yea, guys like him are just pulling stuff out of their butt right now. All guesswork because nobody has seen any teams perform yet.

[biggun]

ULL is better than last year. The players have talked about this game all off season. Billy Napier's second year so they'll be better. State lost too many players off defense. Joe's offense is still unknown in year two by starting Stevens. MSU is a 21 point favorite but don't surprised in ULL covers. MSU 30 ULL 16

> Wow. We can't more than 30 on ULL we got problems. SEC defenses will eat us alive. We scored 56 last year and KT didn't know the system. As usually Lee Sterling is full of shit.

And then he talked about OM/Memphis:

Matt Corral with his legs, make plays. Matt has good arm too. Rich Rod and McIntyre were super off season hires. That 3-4 defense is a plus. Gonna be hard to stop Phillips. Memphis has no defense. The wrong team is favored OM 38 Memphis 34.

> Everything about OM is this game came out of his mouth as positive. There were no drawbacks, no caveats.

Sounds like Sterling should be about spot on

[RocketDawg]

I think you're right and the public doesn't know it's only two starters. I will be very surprised if we don't cover 19.5.

Are we certain it's only two starters? Is that official?

[sonofozarka]

Vegas predictions aren't based on what they thing the actual score will be. It is based on what is gonna get equal bets on both sides. If you bet $100 and win - you get $100. If you bet $100 and lose - you pay $110. So if both sides are even, house wins 10% with no risk. Vegas only predicts how the betting population will see the 2 teams.

This, and I don?t know why anybody thinks anything otherwise.

I laugh when people say Vegas puts up ?trap? lines to entice bettors to wager on the team that they ?know? is not going to cover. Or when a spread is close to the final margin and people say ?man Vegas really knows their stuff.? I wish someone would produce a statistic that shows the variance in spreads and actual results

They don?t know any more than us about how a game is going to turn out, not even the coaches of the teams know how a game might turn out. Vegas just runs analytical models just like Sagarin or the S&P to get the initial spread, then adjusts to get people to bet on the other sode

[DudyDawg]

Line has plummeted from 22, below 19 now. So regardless, bettors support this not being another 56-10

[DudyDawg]

Maybe. I think our line moved bc of the suspensions news though

Suspensions + the balance of power of their OL/our DL being much more in their favor than last year.

[Homedawg]

Are we certain it's only two starters? Is that official?

Yes.

[MarketingBully]

Suspensions + the balance of power of their OL/our DL being much more in their favor than last year.

Their OL sucks. Are we really going to have to go through this again?