Hurricane Dorian discussion

[basedog]

Seems Labor Day weekend is a very popular holiday for Hurricanes, or at least to me since I have to work storms. Dorian has been all over the place with missed predictions but right now probably a cat 3 possibility going in around Vera Beach across Fl into the northern area of Fl. Just Damn!

[ScoobaDawg]

Yep.. it's going to ramp up fast now that it's missing the mountains of Puerto rico. It was decoupled yesterday and ragged.. but got vertically stacked and actually moved northeast for a bit and missed PR for the most part because of it.
Thats good for the island.. but kept if from getting torn up and losing intensity. Now it's going to keep gaining strength and move more north until it runs into the boundary above it forcing it west.

The question.. that is too far out.. where does it go once it crosses florida into the gulf over the weekend.

[JNC23]

Yep.. it's going to ramp up fast now that it's missing the mountains of Puerto rico. It was decoupled yesterday and ragged.. but got vertically stacked and actually moved northeast for a bit and missed PR for the most part because of it.
Thats good for the island.. but kept if from getting torn up and losing intensity. Now it's going to keep gaining strength and move more north until it runs into the boundary above it forcing it west.

So weather guys, what is the outlook for the gulf coast this weekend? Headed down to Orange Beach on Friday and trying to see if it'd make more sense to just detour to New Orleans.

[ScoobaDawg]

So weather guys, what is the outlook for the gulf coast this weekend? Headed down to Orange Beach on Friday and trying to see if it'd make more sense to just detour to New Orleans.

Weather persons favorite saying.. wait a day... Need to see when it starts turning west and how sharp. So to be safe.. just go watch us play instead...

Actually.. for this weekend you should be fine. At it's present speed it's not supposed to make landfall until Monday morning.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDFepMlUEAAcys5?format=png&name=900x900

[ScoobaDawg]

See if this works.. VERY interesting about what what I was explaining earlier and why it missed Puerto rico
Ok it posted the 1st of a 19 tweet thread. click on it to follow

1166680413751795712

[RocketDawg]

Yep.. it's going to ramp up fast now that it's missing the mountains of Puerto rico. It was decoupled yesterday and ragged.. but got vertically stacked and actually moved northeast for a bit and missed PR for the most part because of it.
Thats good for the island.. but kept if from getting torn up and losing intensity. Now it's going to keep gaining strength and move more north until it runs into the boundary above it forcing it west.

The question.. that is too far out.. where does it go once it crosses florida into the gulf over the weekend.

Hopefully once it hits the Florida Atlantic coast, it veers north and stays over land, and moves rapidly. We don't need another strong hurricane in the Gulf, and the water there is very, very warm.

[RocketDawg]

Not to be trivial, but are there any FB games in Florida this weekend that could be impacted (like Jacksonville, Orlando, Gainesville, etc)? I haven't really looked at the schedules.

[ScoobaDawg]

Hopefully once it hits the Florida Atlantic coast, it veers north and stays over land, and moves rapidly. We don't need another strong hurricane in the Gulf, and the water there is very, very warm.


Not looking likely. this mid level ridge is what is going to turn Dorian west instead of north. and actually the stronger it get's the more it will turn faster..thus hitting further south in florida.

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[ScoobaDawg]

Not to be trivial, but are there any FB games in Florida this weekend that could be impacted (like Jacksonville, Orlando, Gainesville, etc)? I haven't really looked at the schedules.

Storm should arrive well after the games so no issues..


Florida A&M vs UCF is on tomm so no issues.

Boise st at Florida St is playing in Jacksonville on Sat.

[dantheman4248]

Storm should arrive well after the games so no issues..


Florida A&M vs UCF is on tomm so no issues.

Boise st at Florida St is playing in Jacksonville on Sat.

Bet the under on the Boise - FSU game torrential rain sat night.

[yjnkdawg]

This is a great site for information on potential or current tropical storm formation(s), and also has weather forecast models (For any who weren't aware of the site). Levi Cowan does a great job,

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[MetEdDawg]

So weather guys, what is the outlook for the gulf coast this weekend? Headed down to Orange Beach on Friday and trying to see if it'd make more sense to just detour to New Orleans.

I'm supposed to head down to Gulf Shores Friday. Impact should be zero this weekend, but my concern is getting home. I'm planning on going home Monday, but depending on what it looks like Dorian will do if it gets in the gulf, I may go home a day early. I'm waiting until Friday to get a better picture on that but I'm definitely going down.

If it looks like a recurve up through anywhere within 50 of Gulf Shores on Wednesday/Thursday, I will go home a day early to beat possible evacuations and folks leaving. Still a lot to get hashed out though.

[RocketDawg]

I'm supposed to head down to Gulf Shores Friday. Impact should be zero this weekend, but my concern is getting home. I'm planning on going home Monday, but depending on what it looks like Dorian will do if it gets in the gulf, I may go home a day early. I'm waiting until Friday to get a better picture on that but I'm definitely going down.

If it looks like a recurve up through anywhere within 50 of Gulf Shores on Wednesday/Thursday, I will go home a day early to beat possible evacuations and folks leaving. Still a lot to get hashed out though.

Sounds reasonable. And you only have a 5 or so hour drive to B'ham from Orange Beach. Let's hope you don't have to leave a day early and the storm goes somewhere besides the central Gulf coast.

[starkvegasdawg]

Saw one meteorologist on twitter saying it may encounter some sheer the next 24-48 hours and get torn apart. If so, then he is going against all consensus thinking. This guy is usually spot on, but I've got to disagree with him. Be interesting to see if the models trending towards a more westerly push into the Gulf.

[basedog]

Saw one meteorologist on twitter saying it may encounter some sheer the next 24-48 hours and get torn apart. If so, then he is going against all consensus thinking. This guy is usually spot on, but I've got to disagree with him. Be interesting to see if the models trending towards a more westerly push into the Gulf.

Well when it comes to predicting Hurricanes, anything could or might happen but from what I’m seeing its about like 7 quit posting.....ain’t happening. LOL

[99jc]

Well when it comes to predicting Hurricanes, anything could or might happen but from what I?m seeing its about like 7 quit posting.....ain?t happening. LOL

Every meteorologist is now predicting 2 landfalls one across Florida moving back in the Gulf of Mexico turning north to Panama City. I am a 1st responder for the government and we are on alert for a possible Cat 4 if/when it reaches the Gulf.

[ScoobaDawg]

Saw one meteorologist on twitter saying it may encounter some sheer the next 24-48 hours and get torn apart. If so, then he is going against all consensus thinking. This guy is usually spot on, but I've got to disagree with him. Be interesting to see if the models trending towards a more westerly push into the Gulf.

As you said.. that's the only one saying that. Look at this slider showing water vapor. it's being blocked at the mona passage.
https://col.st/pGyqW

This new image shows how quickly the eyewall has cleaned up... when we wake up in the morning there is a good chance this will be a cat 2 already

https://i.ibb.co/B3RHRDb/16.gif

[parabrave]

So weather guys, what is the outlook for the gulf coast this weekend? Headed down to Orange Beach on Friday and trying to see if it'd make more sense to just detour to New Orleans.

Its a good time to Visit the mountains.

[ScoobaDawg]

Every meteorologist is now predicting 2 landfalls one across Florida moving back in the Gulf of Mexico turning north to Panama City. I am a 1st responder for the government and we are on alert for a possible Cat 4 if/when it reaches the Gulf.


Impossible to know where it will land in the gulf yet. depends on how strong it becomes before hitting the east coast of florida.. and then how strong the ridge over the US is that will continue to push it west.

[ScoobaDawg]

As you said.. that's the only one saying that. Look at this slider showing water vapor. it's being blocked at the mona passage.
https://col.st/pGyqW

This new image shows how quickly the eyewall has cleaned up... when we wake up in the morning there is a good chance this will be a cat 2 already

https://i.ibb.co/B3RHRDb/16.gif


and actually the eyewall just tightened back to half the size... winds will be up at next update. 8pm update is
https://i.ibb.co/JdYkRhW/18.gif

[IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDGKcXTWsAMRgEV?format=jpg&name=large

[99jc]

I don't predict just follow orders. when it makes landfall I think this will be bad.

[ScoobaDawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDHI1F_XkAA9QIa?format=jpg&name=900x900

[TimberBeast]

Looks like right now they’re sticking with it hitting central Florida, have to see when it turns.

[starkvegasdawg]

Based on what I'm seeing I just don't think it'll impact the MS coast. What concerns me is it hitting Florida and then turning and going up the peninsula. If that happens, some parts of Florida are going to get some scary rainfall totals.

[KentuckyDawg13]

You'll miss the best surf though!

Having grown up on the Gulf Coast, I never understood why so many are terrified of these smaller storms. Living in Louisville, KY now, I never have access to the storms I grew up with...sort of miss it. My dad was a Hurricane Hunter out of Keesler AFB, so I was very aware of the realities of the storms. ;-)

[ScoobaDawg]

Based on what I'm seeing I just don't think it'll impact the MS coast. What concerns me is it hitting Florida and then turning and going up the peninsula. If that happens, some parts of Florida are going to get some scary rainfall totals.

Yea.. Not liking the new models this morning showing it crawling to 2-3 mph on the Florida east coast.

The new spagettis this morning are even more all over the place than normal. This is going to be a difficult storm to figure out..

[Jack Lambert]

Too bad Florida doesn't have 10K foot mountains.

[basedog]

Things are looking somewhat better. Right now looking like no Dorian in the coast and seems to be a small hurricane that could loose lots of intensity once on land. We shall see.

[ScoobaDawg]

FSU just moved the game from Jacksonsville to home. Will be played at Noon saturday.

1167090787127111680

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

FSU just moved the game from Jacksonsville to home. Will be played at Noon saturday.

1167090787127111680

Mfer...just put $ on Boise.

[Cloak]

Have a trip planned down to Miami Beach this weekend. Flying down tomorrow night coming back Monday at 2pm. Should I cancel? When will weather conditions get bad?

[FriarsPoint]

Have a trip planned down to Miami Beach this weekend. Flying down tomorrow night coming back Monday at 2pm. Should I cancel? When will weather conditions get bad?

I would cancel. Having gone through several Cat 3 and 2 storms, it ain’t worth it.

[Cooterpoot]

Well, I just heard some weather cat say it’s likely a cat 4 when it hits now. So they’re putting the fear in Floridians.

[ScoobaDawg]

Have a trip planned down to Miami Beach this weekend. Flying down tomorrow night coming back Monday at 2pm. Should I cancel? When will weather conditions get bad?


I wouldn't go anywhere in florida this weekend.. It's hard to say still. the storm is predicted to slow down it's forward motion as of now, so it might be as early as Sat evening or Monday morning..
Just have to watch today...

[Bdawg]

Any idea when this ridge will let it turn north after it crosses Florida?

[Cloak]

I wouldn't go anywhere in florida this weekend.. It's hard to say still. the storm is predicted to slow down it's forward motion as of now, so it might be as early as Sat evening or Monday morning..
Just have to watch today...

I'll just wait and see. If it looks like the weather will still be decent until Monday, we will go ahead and go. If the weather is supposed to be bad starting Saturday, I will cancel.

[dantheman4248]

I'll just wait and see. If it looks like the weather will still be decent until Monday, we will go ahead and go. If the weather is supposed to be bad starting Saturday, I will cancel.

It will start to be bad by Saturday night.

[ScoobaDawg]

Have a trip planned down to Miami Beach this weekend. Flying down tomorrow night coming back Monday at 2pm. Should I cancel? When will weather conditions get bad?


I was in the wait and see early. I'm firmly in the cancel now. Here is the newest GFS model which lands it in West Palm Beach as a strong Cat 3/weak 4 hurricane and not moving forward very fast. This is the latest model that is picking up on this predicted WSW motion.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/92d95fbddd178c58182b8bdc0bb829ab58c81514a892460015 a62d96163a87b5.gif

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a6ca053a642c21a9cf371b5633bf4d542116b230fd7bb3132 acee7346ffd710.gif

[MetEdDawg]

I was in the wait and see early. I'm firmly in the cancel now. Here is the newest GFS model which lands it in West Palm Beach as a strong Cat 3/weak 4 hurricane and not moving forward very fast. This is the latest model that is picking up on this predicted WSW motion.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/92d95fbddd178c58182b8bdc0bb829ab58c81514a892460015 a62d96163a87b5.gif

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a6ca053a642c21a9cf371b5633bf4d542116b230fd7bb3132 acee7346ffd710.gif

Euro has handled the tropical stuff much better in recent years than the GFS. Usually the Euro goes one direction and the other models eventually follow.

My sister lives in West Palm. This would be a really bad scenario for them.

[DownwardDawg]

I was in the wait and see early. I'm firmly in the cancel now. Here is the newest GFS model which lands it in West Palm Beach as a strong Cat 3/weak 4 hurricane and not moving forward very fast. This is the latest model that is picking up on this predicted WSW motion.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/92d95fbddd178c58182b8bdc0bb829ab58c81514a892460015 a62d96163a87b5.gif


https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a6ca053a642c21a9cf371b5633bf4d542116b230fd7bb3132 acee7346ffd710.gif


That doesn’t look good

[Cloak]

I was in the wait and see early. I'm firmly in the cancel now. Here is the newest GFS model which lands it in West Palm Beach as a strong Cat 3/weak 4 hurricane and not moving forward very fast. This is the latest model that is picking up on this predicted WSW motion.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/92d95fbddd178c58182b8bdc0bb829ab58c81514a892460015 a62d96163a87b5.gif

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a6ca053a642c21a9cf371b5633bf4d542116b230fd7bb3132 acee7346ffd710.gif

Damnit, I was waiting on your input. What are the odds it turns north? Less than 10%?

[RocketDawg]

Damnit, I was waiting on your input. What are the odds it turns north? Less than 10%?

You said you were flying down ... flights would be canceled and airports closed anyway. I doubt you could fly down even if you wanted to.

[Cloak]

You said you were flying down ... flights would be canceled and airports closed anyway. I doubt you could fly down even if you wanted to.

Flight in shouldn't be impacted since it's going out tomorrow. Flight back would be, but I wouldn't mind missing a day of work...

[RocketDawg]

Flight in shouldn't be impacted since it's going out tomorrow. Flight back would be, but I wouldn't mind missing a day of work...

I was in New Orleans as Andrew approached some years ago. Getting out was almost impossible even a couple days in advance.

[RocketDawg]

Weather Channel saying now might come in what looks like about West Palm, slowing and turning north and still hurricane strength over Orlando. And moving slowly with torrential amounts of rain. From there, possibly moving inland up into SE Georgia.

[ScoobaDawg]

11pm update. as previously mentioned. RI over last 24 hour hours.. now heading further south. and foretasted to slow down before land fall..


https://i.imgur.com/FEuItkA.png

[dawgoneyall]

Did I just see the toll roads operation as usual?

[MetEdDawg]

Winds up to 110 MPH at the intermediate advisory. Central pressure down to 972. Intensity guidance showing high Cat 3 or low Cat 4 at landfall. I would think Cat 4 based on the lack of real limiting factors. At this point I think it's safe to say major hurricane is for sure going to happen. Question now is where it lands and when.

This slower trend could be exceedingly bad or potentially good. If it can slow enough it could make the turn before it hits land. Still too early to tell that

[BrunswickDawg]

Alright fellas, these new models aren't funny. I don't like them one bit.

- signed, us idiots in Coastal GA who rode out Matthew and Irma

Ps - My Met Major daughter has been telling me for 2 days this shift was very possible, and I wouldn't listen.

[basedog]

Alright fellas, these new models aren't funny. I don't like them one bit.

- signed, us idiots in Coastal GA who rode out Matthew and Irma

Ps - My Met Major daughter has been telling me for 2 days this shift was very possible, and I wouldn't listen.

I'd be prepared Brunswick as the predictions are still going on for another day maybe two days. It is possible it skirts Fl coast and slams Ga or Sc. It's all IFFY right now.

From the reports I'm getting it looks like east Fl likely impact area. Cat 4 is nothing to try and ride out.

Good luck

[starkvegasdawg]

Now a major hurricane. 115mph cat 3.

[RocketDawg]

Now a major hurricane. 115mph cat 3.

Now, less than 3 hours later, it's a Cat 4 at 130 mph. This one could be bad, as bad as Michael or possibly even worse, depending on where landfall and subsequent motion is.

[DownwardDawg]

Now, less than 3 hours later, it's a Cat 4 at 130 mph. This one could be bad, as bad as Michael or possibly even worse, depending on where landfall and subsequent motion is.

This ain’t good at all.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hurricane hunters investigating now just found 175mph winds at flight level.

[Bothrops]

Florida is gonna be wrecked. Cat 4 now.

[RocketDawg]

Latest update at 9:45 - up to 140 mph.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest track has it recurving and not making landfall in FL. That said, the eastern coast will still see significant impacts from Dorian, but hopefully not the catastrophic destruction and rainfall it could have.

[BrunswickDawg]

Latest track has it recurving and not making landfall in FL. That said, the eastern coast will still see significant impacts from Dorian, but hopefully not the catastrophic destruction and rainfall it could have.

5:00 am looking much better - hoping the recurve trend continues at the 8:00 am update.

[basedog]

As the Beatles sang "Let It Be" I'm hoping what I am seeing to be true! Never have I seen a "major storm" with such a small radius of 25-30 mile hurricane force winds. Weird.

[ScoobaDawg]

Latest update at 2am edt.
2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.3?N 75.6?W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Still "150" mph winds. Lots of recorded higher winds but the NHC hasn't pulled the thread on upgrading to cat 5.
Pressure is falling faster. Still moving faster to the west than expected. The eye is almost to the 11am predicted spot.. meaning it's moving faster than predicted still ..and due to the strength of the ridge to the north of it.. it may move further west before it's hard turn north. Issue is the outer bands are now just over 100 miles from the coast.

[starkvegasdawg]

Winds now 180mph.

[Cooterpoot]

I’ll miss Grand Bahama.

[RocketDawg]

Didn't Katrina get up to about 185 at some point when in the Gulf? And seems like Camille was something like 175 at landfall.

BrunswickDawg ... are you making preparations? It could easily be very damaging even if the center of it doesn't come onshore.

[Liverpooldawg]

Didn't Katrina get up to about 185 at some point when in the Gulf? And seems like Camille was something like 175 at landfall.

BrunswickDawg ... are you making preparations? It could easily be very damaging even if the center of it doesn't come onshore.

Camille was estimated at over 200 but they don't really know. No weather instruments survived in the area of landfall.

[BrunswickDawg]

Didn't Katrina get up to about 185 at some point when in the Gulf? And seems like Camille was something like 175 at landfall.

BrunswickDawg ... are you making preparations? It could easily be very damaging even if the center of it doesn't come onshore.

Keeping a close eye on things. We stay stocked with water, non-perishables, etc so we are good there. Right now we are predicted to only see some TS force winds and localized flooding from rain. We can bug out in an hour or so if things change.

[Matt3467]

I've been loosely following this and it just goes to show how unpredictable weather really is. Mind boggling how not even 4 days ago I was hearing it MAY be a cat 2 at landfall then it went to cat 3 then possibly a cat 4 now it's from what I've heard the strongest hurricane to ever form in the Atlantic. All along those predictions were forecasters saying off and on that it was weakening. It'll be interesting to see where this ends up but whatever the models are saying don't put too much faith in them. Anything can happen.

[RocketDawg]

Just a day or two ago, it was expected to come into Florida, possibly get into the Gulf and regenerate, or more likely run up the middle of Florida with torrential rain. Today, the same models are predicting it to come within 50 miles or so of Miami, then curve and run basically parallel to the coastline all the way past North Carolina. As Matt mentioned, the intensity is much higher than ever anticipated.

Should we be confident that the models are right today?

[msbulldog]

Didn't Katrina get up to about 185 at some point when in the Gulf? And seems like Camille was something like 175 at landfall.

BrunswickDawg ... are you making preparations? It could easily be very damaging even if the center of it doesn't come onshore.

According to a chart of the strongest hurricanes on Fox News a little while ago Katrina and Camille were 175 mph storms. I don't know if that's correct.

[redstickdawg]

According to a chart of the strongest hurricanes on Fox News a little while ago Katrina and Camille were 175 mph storms. I don't know if that's correct.

I grew up in Biloxi and remember going to the Keesler AFB weather station several months after Camille and they claimed that their anemometer was reading 220 mph when it blew away. This was before the eye wall hit, they also showed a photo of the radar showing 17 tornadoes at once in Biloxi proper. So maybe 175 is official but Camille was well above 175 mph.

[starkvegasdawg]

Didn't Katrina get up to about 185 at some point when in the Gulf? And seems like Camille was something like 175 at landfall.

BrunswickDawg ... are you making preparations? It could easily be very damaging even if the center of it doesn't come onshore.

Katrina peaked at 175 I believe before weakening. As others have stated, nobody knows what Camille was. There were reports of it blowing pine needles into wood and blowing water through wooden doors. Those that say it was 200+ will get no argument from me.

[RocketDawg]

Don't know about the water through doors, but I saw the pine needles into wood. I think I remember some reports of 220 mph gusts, but not sure if that was measured or estimated. Pretty hard to measure.

[DancingRabbit]

Katrina peaked at 175 I believe before weakening. As others have stated, nobody knows what Camille was. There were reports of it blowing pine needles into wood and blowing water through wooden doors. Those that say it was 200+ will get no argument from me.

I saw that with my own eyes 11 months later. I was in my early teens, and we were headed to the coast for a week. There was a roadside park we stopped at 10-20 miles inland. We were walking around amazed at all the pine needles embedded in the tree trunks. Every tree had hundreds of them.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just a day or two ago, it was expected to come into Florida, possibly get into the Gulf and regenerate, or more likely run up the middle of Florida with torrential rain. Today, the same models are predicting it to come within 50 miles or so of Miami, then curve and run basically parallel to the coastline all the way past North Carolina. As Matt mentioned, the intensity is much higher than ever anticipated.

Should we be confident that the models are right today?

Models always improve with accuracy as you get closer to an event. The track of hurricanes are affected by a lot of factors and it's just impossible to know how all those will shape up several days out. As we get closer more of the factors are known. The same as trying to forecast a winter storm in the South.

[ScoobaDawg]

Dorien might be weakening. But look at this showing what it did to the Grand Bahamas... the constant battering of storm surge for over 2 days..
*EDIT* I misread this.. so that's not exactly the after, as the storm is still basically on top of the island blowing the water on to the north side of the island. It will be very interesting to see what is left AFTER the water recedes.

1168883492156895232

[ScoobaDawg]

Models always improve with accuracy as you get closer to an event. The track of hurricanes are affected by a lot of factors and it's just impossible to know how all those will shape up several days out. As we get closer more of the factors are known. The same as trying to forecast a winter storm in the South.


Exactly.. what made this one EXTREMELY difficult to forecast was the multiple factors in the environment that changed.. 3 days out from Saturday it looked to be heading towards Central florida. Then another day happened and everything COMPLETELY changed and slowed Dorian down drastically. It's a storm that will be documented and studied for MANY years to come. and amazingly such an amazing strength of nature looks to not have taken many lives thankfully.

[dantheman4248]

I don’t know any model that could predict a storm of this size staying in place for 24 or however many hours. This storm is unprecedented in its strength/trajectory.

[BrunswickDawg]

I don’t know any model that could predict a storm of this size staying in place for 24 or however many hours. This storm is unprecedented in its strength/trajectory.

It has been a wild one. I am afraid that it is going to be a non-event and cause people to ignore warnings and evac orders next time (and I say this as I am currently ignoring an evac order).

[Commercecomet24]

It has been a wild one. I am afraid that it is going to be a non-event and cause people to ignore warnings and evac orders next time (and I say this as I am currently ignoring an evac order).

Stay safe over there, brother!

[BrunswickDawg]

Stay safe over there, brother!

Thanks man. I've been thru a number of storms and I know what to watch and when to bug out. We've been prepped for a couple of days and had our plan and markers for when we make a call to "go". Just got lucky this time that it looks like we will basically have a nor'easter here tomorrow. Lots of people left town though.

[Dawgbite]

Katrina peaked at 175 I believe before weakening. As others have stated, nobody knows what Camille was. There were reports of it blowing pine needles into wood and blowing water through wooden doors. Those that say it was 200+ will get no argument from me.

I had two uncles who lived in Gulfport during Camille and we went down after the storm to help the pick up and rebuild. I have poloroids somewhere of pine needles sticking through a Stop sign and the sign is still on the post.

[RocketDawg]

I had two uncles who lived in Gulfport during Camille and we went down after the storm to help the pick up and rebuild. I have poloroids somewhere of pine needles sticking through a Stop sign and the sign is still on the post.

I was down there not long after that storm ... the damage was incredible. And really, most of Mississippi south of I-20 had very significant damage.

[ScoobaDawg]

Thanks man. I've been thru a number of storms and I know what to watch and when to bug out. We've been prepped for a couple of days and had our plan and markers for when we make a call to "go". Just got lucky this time that it looks like we will basically have a nor'easter here tomorrow. Lots of people left town though.


How ya doing Bruns... I'm guessing fine as Dorian is due west of you.

Anyways, things to watch if anyone cares to. Dorian is getting it's internal core back. Inner clouds are warming again. Pressure has dropped 4 degrees in past couple of hours. Eye is clearing out again.Eye has actually shrunk back down to 44 miles instead of 55, which will make it easier for it to gain speed again. This is all occurring as it get's away from the cold water it continued to churn up while in the same place over the bahamas. Now it's on top of the 80 degree longitude line was has the Gulf stream flowing along it...and that's the warmest water Dorian has encountered in it's life. Will it hit Cat 3 again? Not likely. but any increase in hurricane force winds could be bad for SC and NC as it very likely will make landfall.
Dorian is in an optimal area for development

[ScoobaDawg]

ok this made me about spew my drink... haha
1169313860555333632

[BrunswickDawg]

Thanks for checking in ScoobaDawg.

Things here are fine. Steady wind in the 10s and light rain. The beaches are getting hit with some rough surf. So far only localized flooding - but nothing severe. Looks like we will have dodged one. I think if we can get by high tide tonight about 1:30, we will be good.

This was high tide about 2 hours ago, 4 blocks from my house

https://i.postimg.cc/3wxfw8nB/878-A9-BE4-7-E61-4-AD0-B3-AF-CEF8-A9-F39-C28.jpg