Just going through the stats over the years.... I found some interesting things

[Coach007]

Just killing time waiting on the kick off and I decided to look at the recent years to see where we were.

2014/15, we had the #8 ranked offense in the nation and we were very balanced on offense. We had the 84th ranked Defense but were 114th is passing yards allowed. We were ranked #1. Think about that. We were ranked #1.... with the 84th ranked defense.


2017/18, We had the #10 ranked defense. 46th ranked offense but ranked 112th in passing (that's under Mullen btw). We lost 4 games.
2017/18, #1 Defense and the 70th ranked offense with the 111th ranked passing attack.


I do not see HOW we could be worse in passing than the last 2 years. It just can't happen. I also have a hard time believing we will fall to 84th on defense with our back 7 like it is.

If we get the offense to the 20s and the defense stays around the 2o mark.. we could be looking at a special year

[dantheman4248]

2014 was an anomaly in Total counting stats because of the way we decided to rotate full "1A and 1B" players early in the season.

There were a few holes in that backup group (Tolando Cleveland comes to mind) that were exploited by teams like UAB, but we kept games at arm's length and did what we needed for a win.

That's why those stats were so inflated. That was a top 15 defense that season. Just go back and look at the names of those guys who all have had a cup of tea in the NFL.

[Todd4State]

2014 was an anomaly in Total counting stats because of the way we decided to rotate full "1A and 1B" players early in the season.

There were a few holes in that backup group (Tolando Cleveland comes to mind) that were exploited by teams like UAB, but we kept games at arm's length and did what we needed for a win.

That's why those stats were so inflated. That was a top 15 defense that season. Just go back and look at the names of those guys who all have had a cup of tea in the NFL.

This is correct. And sadly I think it may have cost us a 12-0 season.

[Coach007]

2014 was an anomaly in Total counting stats because of the way we decided to rotate full "1A and 1B" players early in the season.

There were a few holes in that backup group (Tolando Cleveland comes to mind) that were exploited by teams like UAB, but we kept games at arm's length and did what we needed for a win.

That's why those stats were so inflated. That was a top 15 defense that season. Just go back and look at the names of those guys who all have had a cup of tea in the NFL.

Yeah.... but we did play the 2 sets.

Which brings the points:

1- We have a better RB duo, a better and deeper OL. If our passing attack picks up, I feel we are on our way to a great year. Dak was likea 61% passer that year. I think Stevens can more than duplicate that. I'm hoping in the high 60s

2- Regardless of the stats on defense being worse, we still played that 1b. We played that against bama too. I just can't see Ms ST being that bad.

[Todd4State]

Yeah.... but we did play the 2 sets.

Which brings the points:

1- We have a better RB duo, a better and deeper OL. If our passing attack picks up, I feel we are on our way to a great year. Dak was likea 61% passer that year. I think Stevens can more than duplicate that. I'm hoping in the high 60s

2- Regardless of the stats on defense being worse, we still played that 1b. We played that against bama too. I just can't see Ms ST being that bad.

I'm not sure if Hill will be more productive than Robinson in 2014. I think it will be comparable though. I'm not sure about the high 60's for Stevens. If he can get to 60% that is still significant and as you said close to what Dak did in 2014.

[BrunswickDawg]

2014 was an anomaly in Total counting stats because of the way we decided to rotate full "1A and 1B" players early in the season.

There were a few holes in that backup group (Tolando Cleveland comes to mind) that were exploited by teams like UAB, but we kept games at arm's length and did what we needed for a win.

That's why those stats were so inflated. That was a top 15 defense that season. Just go back and look at the names of those guys who all have had a cup of tea in the NFL.


This is correct. And sadly I think it may have cost us a 12-0 season.

I don't think you can qualify that with a "yeah, but..." in this situation. Our HC made a decision about the direction he wanted his defense to take. He then stubbornly held on to that decision when it was obvious it wasn't working (should we have called Dan "Mulvestor"? Seems like a missed opportunity). And, it's not like that was the only year we had an under performing pass defense. 2012 we had the Thorpe Award winner (Banks), a future NFL shut-down corner (Slay), and a former Freshman All American/All SEC (Broomfield) and were barely in the Top 50 in Pass Defense (#46). The fact we didn't have a Top 10 pass defense with that talent in borderline criminal.

[ShotgunDawg]

Just killing time waiting on the kick off and I decided to look at the recent years to see where we were.

2014/15, we had the #8 ranked offense in the nation and we were very balanced on offense. We had the 84th ranked Defense but were 114th is passing yards allowed. We were ranked #1. Think about that. We were ranked #1.... with the 84th ranked defense.


2017/18, We had the #10 ranked defense. 46th ranked offense but ranked 112th in passing (that's under Mullen btw). We lost 4 games.
2017/18, #1 Defense and the 70th ranked offense with the 111th ranked passing attack.


I do not see HOW we could be worse in passing than the last 2 years. It just can't happen. I also have a hard time believing we will fall to 84th on defense with our back 7 like it is.

If we get the offense to the 20s and the defense stays around the 2o mark.. we could be looking at a special year

I agree. People will throw our reasons as to why that defense was better than 84th (it probably was), but it's a pretty large jump to say it was top 15 defense. Maybe a top 50 defense, but top 15? really?

I think we have the personnel to be good on offense this year, but after that shit show last year, I totally understand being apprehensive about that. Until JoMo shows he can make an adjustment, we won't be good on offense

[ShotgunDawg]

That was a top 15 defense that season. Just go back and look at the names of those guys who all have had a cup of tea in the NFL.

Really? Top 15? So they got 69 spots worse because of 1B? That ridiculous. They may have been top 50, but top 15 is asinine.

Additionally, Shoop is significantly better that Collins

[StarkVegasSteve]

I still think if you could've put 2015 Dak with the 2014 team then no one touches us. His passing increased 10 fold that year. Or put the 2014 line on the 2015 team.

[Covercorner2]

2014 was an anomaly in Total counting stats because of the way we decided to rotate full "1A and 1B" players early in the season.

There were a few holes in that backup group (Tolando Cleveland comes to mind) that were exploited by teams like UAB, but we kept games at arm's length and did what we needed for a win.

That's why those stats were so inflated. That was a top 15 defense that season. Just go back and look at the names of those guys who all have had a cup of tea in the NFL.

Our safeties in 2014 were not good. I think it was Jay Hughes, Kendrick Market and Justin Cox sometimes. We also weren't that great at DT aside from Chris Jones.

[TrapGame]

I agree. People will throw our reasons as to why that defense was better than 84th (it probably was), but it's a pretty large jump to say it was top 15 defense. Maybe a top 50 defense, but top 15? really?

I think we have the personnel to be good on offense this year, but after that shit show last year, I totally understand being apprehensive about that. Until JoMo shows he can make an adjustment, we won't be good on offense

That adjustment is called Tommy Stevens.

[dantheman4248]

Really? Top 15? So they got 69 spots worse because of 1B? That ridiculous. They may have been top 50, but top 15 is asinine.

Additionally, Shoop is significantly better that Collins


Considering it’s yardage and how much garbage time we let up that year it’s pretty obvious. Tolando got torched a bunch vs. UAB. LSU scored 19 in garbage time. A&M scored 14. That’s just off the top of my head.

[ShotgunDawg]

Considering it’s yardage and how much garbage time we let up that year it’s pretty obvious. Tolando got torched a bunch vs. UAB. LSU scored 19 in garbage time. A&M scored 14. That’s just off the top of my head.

Yeah but 69 spots? Come on

[Gutter Cobreh]

Considering it?s yardage and how much garbage time we let up that year it?s pretty obvious. Tolando got torched a bunch vs. UAB. LSU scored 19 in garbage time. A&M scored 14. That?s just off the top of my head.

You don't think other teams subbed in when they were up big? At the end of the day, the stats are what they are and you can't retroactively come up with hypotheticals.

Good work 007. I'm cautiously optimistic due to having Stevens under center. If Moorhead trots out that slow ass offensive play calling again though, I'm going to lose my shit.

[dantheman4248]

I’ll just chalk this up to being monday for the lack of understanding that total yardage allowed is an absolutely atrocious way to rate defenses.

[TrapGame]

That 2014 secondary tho. Weren't we stroking out about the 5 yard cushions and the passing they were giving up?

This year's secondary will be light years ahead of that one. What was our experience level at DT in 2014?

[Covercorner2]

That 2014 secondary tho. Weren't we stroking out about the 5 yard cushions and the passing they were giving up?

This year's secondary will be light years ahead of that one. What was our experience level at DT in 2014?

We had a sophomore in Chris Jones and then a bunch of servicable "meh" guys like PJ Jones, Kaleb Eulls, Nelson Adams, etc.

[Coach007]

I'm not sure if Hill will be more productive than Robinson in 2014. I think it will be comparable though. I'm not sure about the high 60's for Stevens. If he can get to 60% that is still significant and as you said close to what Dak did in 2014.

But it feels great knowing it's a possibility... :)

[Coach007]

You don't think other teams subbed in when they were up big? At the end of the day, the stats are what they are and you can't retroactively come up with hypotheticals.

Good work 007. I'm cautiously optimistic due to having Stevens under center. If Moorhead trots out that slow ass offensive play calling again though, I'm going to lose my shit.

I think alot of us will be like that LOL!

[TrapGame]

We had a sophomore in Chris Jones and then a bunch of servicable "meh" guys like PJ Jones, Kaleb Eulls, Nelson Adams, etc.

Yeah, I remember Chris but the other guys have completely left my memory banks. Our DT play this season, although inexperienced, should be close to 2014. So not too bad.

[ShotgunDawg]

Comparing past teams to current teams is always difficult because we have an incredible amount of hindsight bias due to knowing the outcome of the past players.

For example: You know that Chris Jones is one of the best DL in the NFL, McKinney is a dude, & that Preston Smith has had a good career & that makes you biased.

What you don't know is what will become of Cole, Rivers, Errol, Lewis, Gay, Landrews, Dantzler, etc. If 3 of those guys end up being pro bowlers, will your opinion of this year's defense change?

[Prediction? Pain.]

I?ll just chalk this up to being monday for the lack of understanding that total yardage allowed is an absolutely atrocious way to rate defenses.

Yep.

We discussed this is a thread last month and my take now is the same as it was then:

The '14 defense was much closer to Top 25 than the raw "total defense" stats indicate. The advanced stats rankings had us pretty high (20th per the FEI and 26th per the S&P+) and you can see why when you look at the numbers behind the overall raw stats.

For example, in SEC games, our defenses was dead last in "pass defense" if you look only at total passing yards allowed per game. But here's the deal -- since teams were usually playing from behind against our fast-paced and efficient offense, we faced more pass attempts than any other SEC team. Hence, most passing yards allowed. But look at how teams gained those yards. In SEC play, we were 3rd in the conference in opponent completion percentage and top half of the SEC in both yards per attempt allowed and opposing QB rating. Do "bad" pass defenses hold opposing SEC QBs to the third lowest completion percentage in the conference?

Add to that a top half finish in the SEC in yards per rush allowed and Top 3 in the SEC in sacks, interceptions, opponents' 3rd down conversions, and red zone D (TD% allowed), and you've got a pretty solid D. Not elite last last year, but pretty good all things considered.

[ShotgunDawg]

Yeah, I remember Chris but the other guys have completely left my memory banks. Our DT play this season, although inexperienced, should be close to 2014. So not too bad.

Chris Jones was 20th on that team in tackles with 26 & 6th in sacks with 3

[dantheman4248]

Yep.

We discussed this is a thread last month and my take now is the same as it was then:

The '14 defense was much closer to Top 25 than the raw "total defense" stats indicate. The advanced stats rankings had us pretty high (20th per the FEI and 26th per the S&P+) and you can see why when you look at the numbers behind the overall raw stats.

For example, in SEC games, our defenses was dead last in "pass defense" if you look only at total passing yards allowed per game. But here's the deal -- since teams were usually playing from behind against our fast-paced and efficient offense, we faced more pass attempts than any other SEC team. Hence, most passing yards allowed. But look at how teams gained those yards. In SEC play, we were 3rd in the conference in opponent completion percentage and top half of the SEC in both yards per attempt allowed and opposing QB rating. Do "bad" pass defenses hold opposing QBs to the third lowest QB rating in the conference?

Add to that a top half finish in the SEC in yards per rush allowed and Top 3 in the SEC in sacks, interceptions, opponents' 3rd down conversions, and red zone D (TD% allowed), and you've got a pretty solid D. Not elite last last year, but pretty good all things considered.

Great insight. Good stats. Excellent way to explain it.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I don't think you can qualify that with a "yeah, but..." in this situation. Our HC made a decision about the direction he wanted his defense to take. He then stubbornly held on to that decision when it was obvious it wasn't working (should we have called Dan "Mulvestor"? Seems like a missed opportunity). And, it's not like that was the only year we had an under performing pass defense. 2012 we had the Thorpe Award winner (Banks), a future NFL shut-down corner (Slay), and a former Freshman All American/All SEC (Broomfield) and were barely in the Top 50 in Pass Defense (#46). The fact we didn't have a Top 10 pass defense with that talent in borderline criminal.

Up until the Great Sirmon Debacle of 2016, 2012's defense was probably the worst of Mullen's tenure. And, yeah, given Banks and Slay, the pass D was especially inexcusable. All those solid pass D rankings in 2014? Yeah, the 2012 D was 10th or lower in the conference in each. Booting Wilson for Collins was about as good a move as booting Sirmon for Grantham.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Oh, and as for the original topic of this discussion, I agree that teams can win in all sorts of ways. Sherril's best team ('99) is a great example of that -- 10 wins with an all-world defense and, uh, not-so-great offense -- as are, to a lesser extent, Mullen's 2010 and 2017 squads -- 9-win seasons with great defenses, gritty run-first (and second and third) QBs, and horrific passing attacks.

But I also think we can all agree that the better, more well rounded both the offense and defense both are -- like in 2014, when both the offense and defense clicked more often than not (even if not always at the same time) -- the better positioned we'll be to win big.