ESPN final preseason FPI

[msstate7]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

Sec teams:
2. Bama
3. Georgia
4. LSU
8. Florida
9. Auburn
11. aTm
15. Tenn
16. State
18. South Carolina
19. Mizzou
40. Kentucky
41. OM
50. Vandy
60. Ark

Others of note:
99. ULL
74. USM
57. Kansas state

It has our win/loss at 7.7/4.3

[DancingRabbit]

I wonder what's up with Bill Connelly? Since he works there now I would presume ESPN is going to publish the S&P+ on their site?

[Coach007]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

Sec teams:
2. Bama
3. Georgia
4. LSU
8. Florida
9. Auburn
11. aTm
15. Tenn
16. State
18. South Carolina
19. Mizzou
40. Kentucky
41. OM
50. Vandy
60. Ark

Others of note:
99. ULL
74. USM
57. Kansas state

It has our win/loss at 7.7/4.3

I was thinking about this when it came out earlier. I would love to see the final preseason vs end of season results for the history of this.

[Quaoarsking]

... and some people think Kentucky and Kansas State are going to come into Starkville and beat us.

Yes, anything's possible, but we're a lot more likely to beat Auburn, Tennessee, or Texas A&M, than we are to lose one of our September home games.

[Bdawg]

Don't quite understand that Tenn love.

[Todd4State]

Don't quite understand that Tenn love.

May be more about who they have later in the year than earlier.

Also, FPI changes as the season plays out. We could very well be ahead of Tennessee, A&M, and maybe Auburn if they start out 2-2 when we play them.

[MarketingBully]

I think most likely scenario is 2-2 on the road in the SEC with losses to Auburn and A&M. I could see us beating either of those teams if everything fell right. Most likely scenario at home is 2-2 with losses to LSU and Alabama and once again I could see us beating LSU if everything fell right. Most likely scenario is 8-4 but if everything fell right I could see us 9-3. The people saying 7-5 or 6-6 are obviously saying we lose to TN and probably someone worse then that as well. If you look at our schedule and where it lines up with other teams we actually have advantageous matchups compared to when we play others. For instance before the TN game, TN plays UGA, then us, then Alabama. We are their classic trap game. For the Auburn game, they play @A&M, then us, then go to Florida. Same with LSU, they play Florida, at our place, then Auburn. We have advantageous matchups throughout our schedule.

[msstate7]

I think most likely scenario is 2-2 on the road in the SEC with losses to Auburn and A&M. I could see us beating either of those teams if everything fell right. Most likely scenario at home is 2-2 with losses to LSU and Alabama and once again I could see us beating LSU if everything fell right. Most likely scenario is 8-4 but if everything fell right I could see us 9-3. The people saying 7-5 or 6-6 are obviously saying we lose to TN and probably someone worse then that as well. If you look at our schedule and where it lines up with other teams we actually have advantageous matchups compared to when we play others. For instance before the TN game, TN plays UGA, then us, then Alabama. We are their classic trap game. For the Auburn game, they play @A&M, then us, then go to Florida. Same with LSU, they play Florida, at our place, then Auburn. We have advantageous matchups throughout our schedule.

I look at that Georgia, state, Bama sequence differently. I think they'll circle our game bc they know Georgia and Bama just aren't very realistic while our game is one they could win if they play well

ETA... I do like the bye before this game though for us

[BrunswickDawg]

I look at that Georgia, state, Bama sequence differently. I think they'll circle our game bc they know Georgia and Bama just aren't very realistic while our game is one they could win if they play well

ETA... I do like the bye before this game though for us

You obviously don't know many UT fans. This is the exact opposite of the way they will view this stretch.

[msstate7]

You obviously don't know many UT fans. This is the exact opposite of the way they will view this stretch.

You thought I was talking about the fans? Actually, I'm talking coaches.

[MarketingBully]

You thought I was talking about the fans? Actually, I'm talking coaches.

That’s a good way to get fired as a UT coach.

[msstate7]

That’s a good way to get fired as a UT coach.

Not this year. Losing to Georgia and Bama is expected, 18+ pt underdog in both. Losing to state would get Pruitt's seat much hotter than losing to Georgia and Bama. Long term though, yeah, he's gotta compete with them

[MarketingBully]

Not this year. Losing to Georgia and Bama is expected, 18+ pt underdog in both. Losing to state would get Pruitt's seat much hotter than losing to Georgia and Bama. Long term though, yeah, he's gotta compete with them

If he’s 0-9 against UF, UGA, and Bama he’s not getting a fourth year.

[msstate7]

If he’s 0-9 against UF, UGA, and Bama he’s not getting a fourth year.

Well he's going 0-3 this year

[MarketingBully]

Well he's going 0-3 this year

Yep.

[msstate7]

No one really commented on something I noticed about this, balance or power in sec seems to be balancing out some according to this metric. Avg FPI of sec west is 20.43, and avg FPI in east is 21.86. Both sides have 5 in top 20

[BrunswickDawg]

You thought I was talking about the fans? Actually, I'm talking coaches.

Dude, it's early on a Monday and my coffee hasn't kicked in.

Regardless. Their fan expectation will be that they should beat all 3. Their coach and team expectation should be to win all 3 as they prepare. Just like our coach and team expectation should be to win every game. That's the goal. If you prepare or expect any differently, MB is right - its a good way to get fired.

[BrunswickDawg]

No one really commented on something I noticed about this, balance or power in sec seems to be balancing out some according to this metric. Avg FPI of sec west is 20.43, and avg FPI in east is 21.86. Both sides have 5 in top 20

I think that is a combination of a few things. The east is getting better, OM and Arkansas are less competitive then they have been in almost a decade, and the whole league is head and shoulders above a significant portion of the teams in CFB.

[msstate7]

FWIW, FPI has tenn favorite at 55.4%.

[Tbonewannabe]

FWIW, FPI has tenn favorite at 55.4%.

At the end of the day, UT has historically recruited better than us and it is in Knoxville. That is enough to get them to be favorites. So on paper UT is better but on the field it is probably close to even. Then you take into account how much we lost on the Dline but UT has also lost a lot on the Oline. Being a home game definitely helps since most of the middle of the pack teams like MSU, UT, SC, A&M, AU, and occasionally UK win their big games at home.

[TrapGame]

FWIW, FPI has tenn favorite at 55.4%.

You remind me of this guy...


https://i.imgur.com/2VfecQ1.gif

[biggun]

The CBS TV analyst Top 25 poll has us ranked at #21. They showed a lot of love for Tommy Stevens and said our offense should be much better this year.

[msstate7]

The CBS TV analyst Top 25 poll has us ranked at #21. They showed a lot of love for Tommy Stevens and said our offense should be much better this year.

I think we'll be much improved offensively. I expect significant regression defensively though, outside top 20

[Jarius]

FWIW, FPI has tenn favorite at 55.4%.

Tennessee will not be Vegas favorites in our game.....you know, fwiw.

[TrapGame]

I think we'll be much improved offensively. I expect significant regression defensively though, outside top 20

C'mon man. Some of y'all think we gonna be a 2016 Peter Sirmon defense? If we have a defense as good as 2014, 2010 or 2017 we'll be fine. And, no, none of those defenses could touch us last year but were still GOOD.

[msstate7]

C'mon man. Some of y'all think we gonna be a 2016 Peter Sirmon defense? If we have a defense as good as 2014, 2010 or 2017 we'll be fine. And, no, none of those defenses could touch us last year but were still GOOD.

Saying outside top 20 isn't saying we will suck, not even close. We were elite last year, and I don't expect elite this year... 21-30 is where I predict, and that's good

[TrapGame]

Saying outside top 20 isn't saying we will suck, not even close. We were elite last year, and I don't expect elite this year... 21-30 is where I predict, and that's good

That's not "significant regression". We didn't have a top 30 defense in 2014 (IIRC it was around #40).

[msstate7]

That's not "significant regression". We didn't have a top 30 defense in 2014 (IIRC it was around #40).
Ok, maybe my wording is messed up a little. I expect a drop from top 3 last season to top 30 this year.

[BrunswickDawg]

That's not "significant regression". We didn't have a top 30 defense in 2014 (IIRC it was around #40).


Ok, maybe my wording is messed up a little. I expect a drop from top 3 last season to top 30 this year.

And I think Top 30 will be enough for us to be in every game if our offense improves to Top 40 from Top 70 - which is very plausible.

[msugolf]

Don't quite understand that Tenn love.

We'll beat Tenn by +10

[Bothrops]

I didn't realize Tennessee had so many injuries on the LOS. Do espn know about that?

[Tbonewannabe]

I didn't realize Tennessee had so many injuries on the LOS. Do espn know about that?

Just looking at the projected depth chart and UT is predicting to start 2 freshman OT. Their DT has 2 freshman as the 2nd string so they are at least as young as we are on the DLine. I think UT is probably a year away from really competing in the trenches.

[Todd4State]

I didn't realize Tennessee had so many injuries on the LOS. Do espn know about that?

Probably not.

[TrapGame]

We'll beat Tenn by +10

The only thing in the Vols' favor is home field. I just don't think Pruitt is head coaching material though.

[Jarius]

The only thing in the Vols' favor is home field. I just don't think Pruitt is head coaching material though.

Tennessee didn’t either until their first 12 options turned them down.

[TrapGame]

Tennessee didn’t either until their first 12 options turned them down.

Yeah, he was sixth or seventh on the list, if that.