Our WR

[Cowbell]

Some of you need to back up and think a minute.
1. We are not losing any WR experience from an 8-4 team
2. We have added two immediate impact transfers
3. We have the deepest set of TEs in my memory - maybe the deepest in the country in 2019.
4. We have a lot of talented guys fighting for PT and this means somebody is going to catch the ball. Even if it is Dedrick Thomas (I?m a big fan too Bucky - sorry homedawg you are wrong on him)
5. Last year people stacked the box because they knew fitz wasn?t accurate and couldn?t make quick reads. This is essentially why we did not hand the ball off as much as all of us on this board wished. Joe had his hands tied some.
6. Our O-line is going to give time! This is the most important factor, especially with young QBs.
7. We have an electric RB that can catch out of the backfield that will keep backers and corners shallow.
8. Joe is a very determined man. The haters are going to be silenced.

[msstate7]

Man, I hope you're right

[Cowbell]

Man, I hope you're right

I’m not trying to say that we are going to be capable of air raid - but you have to admit these are all valid points. I didn’t even assume we would have better QB accuracy.

[Cowbell]

And the biggest concern I have with WR play is Kylin staying healthy. Being two dimensional is key.

[Cooterpoot]

One of the worst WR groups in the SEC. Not a single proven SEC WR. I’ll say it until they can prove me wrong, and I don’t mean vs ULL.

[Cowbell]

One of the worst WR groups in the SEC. Not a single proven SEC WR. I?ll say it until they can prove me wrong, and I don?t mean vs ULL.

Last year was also the first year many of them got PT in the SEC. They are going to improve.

[Cooterpoot]

Last year was also the first year many of them got PT in the SEC. They are going to improve.

Which is why I didn’t say they’re the worst in the SEC. Last year they were the worst. They can’t be that bad again.

[Coach34]

Why didnt teams load the box when Mullen was HC and Fitz was QB because they knew he wasnt very accurate or couldnt make quick reads? Especially because they knew he was going to run the ball? How did Fred Ross catch over 70 passes from Fitz in one season because he cant make quick reads and isnt very accurate?

Why werent Mullen's hands tied as Fitz completed 56% of his passes?

Just curious

[Cowbell]

Why didnt teams load the box when Mullen was HC and Fitz was QB because they knew he wasnt very accurate or couldnt make quick reads? Especially because they knew he was going to run the ball? How did Fred Ross catch over 70 passes from Fitz in one season because he cant make quick reads and isnt very accurate?

Why werent Mullen's hands tied as Fitz completed 56% of his passes?

Just curious

Because fitz had three years to study an offense that was built around his abilities and Mullen had 3 years to shape the offense around fits vs joe having 8 months.

Much more to expand on here but maybe that?s a conversation to have over coffee.

[Coach34]

Because fitz had three years to study an offense that was built around his abilities and Mullen had 3 years to shape the offense around fits vs joe having 8 months.

Much more to expand on here but maybe that?s a conversation to have over coffee.

lol- thats awful and a complete load of shit. Teams loaded the box every year Fitz played QB. Difference was Mullen knew how to get the ball to people and JoVester struggled. Fitz was a 56% QB for Mullen- 50% for JoVester. Defenses knew our WR's were below average and loaded the box all 3 years. JoVester did a terrible job of adjusting to what he had. Thats the bottom line. We'll see if he gets better in 2019

[Cowbell]

lol- thats awful and a complete load of shit. Teams loaded the box every year Fitz played QB. Difference was Mullen knew how to get the ball to people and JoVester struggled. Fitz was a 56% QB for Mullen- 50% for JoVester. Defenses knew our WR's were below average and loaded the box all 3 years. JoVester did a terrible job of adjusting to what he had. Thats the bottom line. We'll see if he gets better in 2019

Im not going to argue with someone who can’t be mature through the conversation. This thread was started to discuss our WRs not your issues with our head coach. Its sad that you have to be this disrespectful to resort to nicknames. In recruiting alone he is better than croom ever dreamed.

[West Tn Dawg]

The cute little nick names really make you look shallow and stupid! Hard to take any of your thoughts or opinions very serious when you act like a 10 year old!

[Coach34]

Well why dont you post about why Fitz was better and more accurate with Mullen with a loaded box then with JoVester and a loaded box? If Fitz was so bad on reads and accuracy- how did Fred Ross catch over 70 passes in a season from him? Is Fred Ross an all-pro cant miss NFL talent?

[Covercorner2]

Well why dont you post about why Fitz was better and more accurate with Mullen with a loaded box then with JoVester and a loaded box? If Fitz was so bad on reads and accuracy- how did Fred Ross catch over 70 passes in a season from him? Is Fred Ross an all-pro cant miss NFL talent?

1. We threw the ball EIGHTY EIGHT more times that year. Naturally guys are going to catch more balls.
2. Fred Ross was a good college receiver. That was also his senior year. No one is expecting anyone to duplicate that this year, because while we may not have one Fred Ross, we probably have 4 or so guys that combined can duplicate that production.
3. As stated previously, that was Fitz?s what 3rd year in Mullen?s system? Naturally more comfort all around.

[Homedawg]

Some of you need to back up and think a minute.
1. We are not losing any WR experience from an 8-4 team
2. We have added two immediate impact transfers
3. We have the deepest set of TEs in my memory - maybe the deepest in the country in 2019.
4. We have a lot of talented guys fighting for PT and this means somebody is going to catch the ball. Even if it is Dedrick Thomas (I?m a big fan too Bucky - sorry homedawg you are wrong on him)
5. Last year people stacked the box because they knew fitz wasn?t accurate and couldn?t make quick reads. This is essentially why we did not hand the ball off as much as all of us on this board wished. Joe had his hands tied some.
6. Our O-line is going to give time! This is the most important factor, especially with young QBs.
7. We have an electric RB that can catch out of the backfield that will keep backers and corners shallow.
8. Joe is a very determined man. The haters are going to be silenced.

I like d Thomas. But he won't sniff the nfl. Sorry bud. Course I got told last year I was wrong over and over about Jamal Peters and I was right on that so there's that.

[Coach34]

1. We through the ball EIGHTY EIGHT more times that year. Naturally guys are going to catch more balls.
2. Fred Ross was a good college receiver. That was also his senior year. No one is expecting anyone to duplicate that this year, because while we may not have one Fred Ross, we probably have 4 or so guys that combined can duplicate that production.
3. As stated previously, that was Fitz?s what 3rd year in Mullen?s system? Naturally more comfort all around.

Wonder how Hurts will do in OU's system?
Clemson's QB won the NC in his 1st year in that system.
Burrow was very good in LSU's system in Year 1
Cam Newton was awesome in 1 year of Auburn's system
How did the short QB do in 1 year at QB in Wash State's system?

Stop making excuses that it tales QB's years to be good in a system- it takes a QB a month to learn a system if they are any good

[Covercorner2]

Wonder how Hurts will do in OU's system?
Clemson's QB won the NC in his 1st year in that system.
Burrow was very good in LSU's system in Year 1
Cam Newton was awesome in 1 year of Auburn's system
How did the short QB do in 1 year at QB in Wash State's system?

Stop making excuses that it tales QB's years to be good in a system- it takes a QB a month to learn a system if they are any good

... and Fitz is not very good throwing the ball. Thanks for proving the point. All of those guys aside from maybe Burrow are much better passers than Fitz. And Burrow was not ?very good?. Come on, man.

Stevens is a better passer than Fitz AND has been in the system longer.

[Bass Chaser]

Since you're the self-proclaimed expert why don't you tell us?

What was Dak's issue then? It took him 4 years to start at QB fot Mullen? Why didn't he start over Russell outright as a sophomore?

Why were we a blocked field goal from going 7-5 Dak's Sr year?

Why didn't Mullen put more offensive guys in the NFL over 9 years?

[gravedigger]

One of the worst WR groups in the SEC. Not a single proven SEC WR. I’ll say it until they can prove me wrong, and I don’t mean vs ULL.

Dont kid yourself. You say it because it gets you the message board attention you crave.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Well why dont you post about why Fitz was better and more accurate with Mullen with a loaded box then with JoVester and a loaded box? If Fitz was so bad on reads and accuracy- how did Fred Ross catch over 70 passes in a season from him? Is Fred Ross an all-pro cant miss NFL talent?

Nobody is saying Fitz was less accurate under JoMo, the point is that Fitz's comp % went down because he had no F-ing clue what he was doing in the Moorhead system. He didn't know who to read, he didn't trust his protection, thus he was worse at getting the ball out on time to the most open target. Mullen didn't give him complicated reads for a reason, and somehow Moorhead didn't notice those same reasons and made the O too complicated. That's on Moorhead, but stop acting like we're pretending Fitz turned into a different QB. All we're saying is he went fro ma system he knew to one he didn't.

Fred Ross was a 1st team All-SEC receiver. IDK why you're acting like he wasn't that good just because his pro career didn't pan out. Tebow was one of the best QB's of all time and look at his pro career. Anthony Dixon was better than Vic Ballard yet Ballard had the better pro career. Jonathan Banks was literally the best DB in the country yet had a far worse pro career than his teammate, Darious Slay. Derrick Henry was dominant in college and mediocre in the pros. You know this yet you still peddle this narrative that Ross was mediocre so our current WR's must be truly terrible if they can't match his production.

Also, nobody is saying we have Fred Ross equivalents on the roster. The point is that these guys were better in 18 than they were in 17 (Mitchell and Thomas both took steps forward), and we have no reason to think they haven't individually improved like normal with another offseason.

Lastly, there's no reason to think Zuber - a proven P5 WR- won't help on the talent side of things... either the best WR on K-State's roster isn't good enough to contribute here (in which case, how bad can our current guys be?) OR he will contribute, in which case the unit will be better by definition of adding a contributor. Can't have it both ways. And again, the expectation is for guys to get better year to year and all our WR's are back, so the unit as a whole should be improved.

[Coach34]

... and Fitz is not very good throwing the ball. Thanks for proving the point. All of those guys aside from maybe Burrow are much better passers than Fitz. And Burrow was not ?very good?. Come on, man.

Stevens is a better passer than Fitz AND has been in the system longer.

JoVester made Fitz worse. Its fact. We'll see what Stevens does this season as a starter for the 1st time in a conference that is known for defense.

[Doggie_Style]

Some of you need to back up and think... ..

Ummmm.... most of us are well aware of our troubles at WR. We are also aware that with a couple of newcomers and a new coach and more pass oriented QBs that we could be better in the passing game this year...I still have doubts about Moorheads scheme but will be more than happy to eat crow should we win more than 7.

[Cooterpoot]

Dont kid yourself. You say it because it gets you the message board attention you crave.

Sorry I?m right. I?ll gladly eat crow should I be proven wrong.

[Lord McBuckethead]

lol- thats awful and a complete load of shit. Teams loaded the box every year Fitz played QB. Difference was Mullen knew how to get the ball to people and JoVester struggled. Fitz was a 56% QB for Mullen- 50% for JoVester. Defenses knew our WR's were below average and loaded the box all 3 years. JoVester did a terrible job of adjusting to what he had. Thats the bottom line. We'll see if he gets better in 2019

I am going to disagree with this one.

[HoopsDawg]

I am going to disagree with this one.

just curious, what do you disagree with?

[Homedawg]

I am going to disagree with this one.

What's to disagree w?? It's pretty easy to see

[Coach34]

I am going to disagree with this one.

whats your disagreement? I posted facts

[Lord McBuckethead]

I do agree he didn't adjust to his talent. Kylin getting 6 carries and not having a TE clip Allen at UK were obvious coaching issues and no adjustment.

[Lord McBuckethead]

No offense chief, but that wasn't the issue. Their were tons of plays there to.make all year long. Simple reads that should have been made by a high functioning qb. An SEC QB.

The truth as I see it is Fitz didn't have a handle on the offense and was calling his number too often and wasn't working the offense. Better stated, he reverted to what he knows when the going got tough. That and he lost a step with the injury. Easy enough to stack the box, but Fitz couldn't make then pay with his legs often enough to keep them honest. His Soph year he could. Box loaded. Hesitant throwing qb. Default to what he knows.

[Lord McBuckethead]

I said legs, because not correctly working the offense, he stood less chance passing the ball into reads he wasn't prepared to make.

[DownwardDawg]

Unfortunately, this message board is short lived. I hate it. It was a great board.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Well why dont you post about why Fitz was better and more accurate with Mullen with a loaded box then with JoVester and a loaded box? If Fitz was so bad on reads and accuracy- how did Fred Ross catch over 70 passes in a season from him? Is Fred Ross an all-pro cant miss NFL talent?

Fred Ross was dang good too. In a system Fitz sat in for two and a half years at that point.

I understand you have issue with Joe on last years execution. Shit we all do. I am sure the team and athletic department does too. But he had some good moments too. Even though UK, UF, LSU, and Iowa were shit shows, there were plays to be made and Fitz didn't get it done. Regardless of WR, blocking, defensive alignment, etc. It came down to knowledge of the system and Fitz didn't have it. He wasn't on that level.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Also, at the same time, for a system to get installed over a spring and a fall....sometimes you just have to stick with it regardless. It is what it is at that point. You could still find 30 ways for Kylin to get the ball. Hell it may have opened us the passing lanes a little.

[Cowbell]

Ummmm.... most of us are well aware of our troubles at WR. We are also aware that with a couple of newcomers and a new coach and more pass oriented QBs that we could be better in the passing game this year...I still have doubts about Moorheads scheme but will be more than happy to eat crow should we win more than 7.

Im just posting this for the ones that don?t get your second sentence. Too much doom and gloom around here.

[Cowbell]

whats your disagreement? I posted facts

Will you be more successful in your third year of selling coffee than your first? I sure hope so...

[Coach34]

Will you be more successful in your third year of selling coffee than your first? I sure hope so...

I am Mr Coffee and you should address me as so

[dantheman4248]

I am Mr Coffee and you should address me as so

Sorry I can’t hear you from that far down the VCash leaderboard. Speak up or don’t make so many stupid claims and bets that get proven false time and time again. ��

[StateDawg44]

Sorry I can’t hear you from that far down the VCash leaderboard. Speak up or don’t make so many stupid claims and bets that get proven false time and time again. ��

Did you actually just hang your hat on having more Vcash than someone else like it actually means something???

[Hambone]

The fact that you are a COACH and can?t wrap your mind around how different coaches have different philosophies absolutely blows my mind.

Moorhead?s offense thrives on passing the ball to set up the run. That?s what he does, everywhere he goes. He had a square peg trying to fit in a round hole.

You seriously just have to look at the percentage of run vs pass with each coach to see the difference.

[msstate7]

The fact that you are a COACH and can?t wrap your mind around how different coaches have different philosophies absolutely blows my mind.

Moorhead?s offense thrives on passing the ball to set up the run. That?s what he does, everywhere he goes. He had a square peg trying to fit in a round hole.

You seriously just have to look at the percentage of run vs pass with each coach to see the difference.

At penn state in 2016, Moorhead was 58/42 run heavy; we were 56/44 run heavy in 2016. Moorhead was basically 50/50 in 2017; we were 64/36 run heavy in 2017. Moorhead hasn't proven pass heavy in P5 yet, actually

[TrapGame]

Same shit, different thread.

[coastratdog]

Wonder how Hurts will do in OU's system?
Clemson's QB won the NC in his 1st year in that system.
Burrow was very good in LSU's system in Year 1
Cam Newton was awesome in 1 year of Auburn's system
How did the short QB do in 1 year at QB in Wash State's system?

Stop making excuses that it tales QB's years to be good in a system- it takes a QB a month to learn a system if they are any good

Maybe because with the exception of Hurts all were first year players and or starters so they didn't have to undo the previous years offense. Or maybe they all have more pure elite QB skills.

[MarketingBully]

Nobody is saying Fitz was less accurate under JoMo, the point is that Fitz's comp % went down because he had no F-ing clue what he was doing in the Moorhead system. He didn't know who to read, he didn't trust his protection, thus he was worse at getting the ball out on time to the most open target. Mullen didn't give him complicated reads for a reason, and somehow Moorhead didn't notice those same reasons and made the O too complicated. That's on Moorhead, but stop acting like we're pretending Fitz turned into a different QB. All we're saying is he went fro ma system he knew to one he didn't.

Fred Ross was a 1st team All-SEC receiver. IDK why you're acting like he wasn't that good just because his pro career didn't pan out. Tebow was one of the best QB's of all time and look at his pro career. Anthony Dixon was better than Vic Ballard yet Ballard had the better pro career. Jonathan Banks was literally the best DB in the country yet had a far worse pro career than his teammate, Darious Slay. Derrick Henry was dominant in college and mediocre in the pros. You know this yet you still peddle this narrative that Ross was mediocre so our current WR's must be truly terrible if they can't match his production.

Also, nobody is saying we have Fred Ross equivalents on the roster. The point is that these guys were better in 18 than they were in 17 (Mitchell and Thomas both took steps forward), and we have no reason to think they haven't individually improved like normal with another offseason.

Lastly, there's no reason to think Zuber - a proven P5 WR- won't help on the talent side of things... either the best WR on K-State's roster isn't good enough to contribute here (in which case, how bad can our current guys be?) OR he will contribute, in which case the unit will be better by definition of adding a contributor. Can't have it both ways. And again, the expectation is for guys to get better year to year and all our WR's are back, so the unit as a whole should be improved.

Moorhead?s system requires a cerebral QB. Mullen?s system does not. Fitz isn?t what you would call a cerebral QB so he struggled in Moorhead?s system. Look at the QBs Moorhead recruited at Penn State and look at the ones he has recruited here. Dak would have worked in both systems. Russell would have worked well in Moorhead?s system as well. Also in a perfect world Moorhead?s system would be close to 50/50 run/pass due to his RPO system. It completely depends on the QB and how well he can read what the defense is doing both pre and post snap. If advantageous, the QB can call a run or pass option on a pass or run play. All of that is built into the system which is why Saban bitches about it. You will see a night and day difference in our offense this year simply because we will have a cerebral QB running it.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

Here are some facts:

Fitz was almost exactly the same in 2017 and 2018. In fact his stats were a little better in almost every category except for completion percentage. Even that was not a dramatic drop off. He had 14 more completions on 5 more total attempts in 2017 as opposed to 2018. That averages to about one more completion a game. He had a better TD/Int ratio in 2018 as opposed to 2017. I understand that you have now started a crusade against Moorhead similar to your crusades against Stansbury and Mullen (to some extent) but your "facts" in this regard are wrong. Calm down, take a deep breath, and have a cup of coffee. We are going to be alright.


Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate

*2017 Mississippi State SEC JR QB 12 159 286 55.6 1782 6.2 5.5 15 11 117.5
*2018 Mississippi State SEC SR QB 12 145 281 51.6 1767 6.3 6.0 16 9 116.8

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/nick-fitzgerald-2.html

[msstate7]

Here are some facts:

Fitz was almost exactly the same in 2017 and 2018. In fact his stats were a little better in almost every category except for completion percentage. Even that was not a dramatic drop off. He had 14 more completions on 5 more total attempts in 2017 as opposed to 2018. That averages to about one more completion a game. He had a better TD/Int ratio in 2018 as opposed to 2017. I understand that you have now started a crusade against Moorhead similar to your crusades against Stansbury and Mullen (to some extent) but your "facts" in this regard are wrong. Calm down, take a deep breath, and have a cup of coffee. We are going to be alright.


Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate

*2017 Mississippi State SEC JR QB 12 159 286 55.6 1782 6.2 5.5 15 11 117.5
*2018 Mississippi State SEC SR QB 12 145 281 51.6 1767 6.3 6.0 16 9 116.8

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/nick-fitzgerald-2.html

Fitz Qbr rankings nationally/pass epa...
2016: 19th/15.9
2017: 14th/11.5
2018: 65th/3.3

[Pipedream]

Here are some facts:

Fitz was almost exactly the same in 2017 and 2018. In fact his stats were a little better in almost every category except for completion percentage. Even that was not a dramatic drop off. He had 14 more completions on 5 more total attempts in 2017 as opposed to 2018. That averages to about one more completion a game. He had a better TD/Int ratio in 2018 as opposed to 2017. I understand that you have now started a crusade against Moorhead similar to your crusades against Stansbury and Mullen (to some extent) but your "facts" in this regard are wrong. Calm down, take a deep breath, and have a cup of coffee. We are going to be alright.


Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate

*2017 Mississippi State SEC JR QB 12 159 286 55.6 1782 6.2 5.5 15 11 117.5
*2018 Mississippi State SEC SR QB 12 145 281 51.6 1767 6.3 6.0 16 9 116.8

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/nick-fitzgerald-2.html

Here are some more facts that refute your claim that he was "almost exactly the same" 18 v 17:

His Total QBR in 2018 was 65th in the country at 58.0
His Total QBR in 2017 was 14th in the country at 78.5 (+35% from 18)
His Total QBR in 2016 was 19th in the country at 77.4 (+33% from 18)
http://www.espn.com/college-football/qbr/_/year/2016

One year is completely unlike the other two in this sample. What was the main difference? Pretty clear to see what the variable was that changed his performance so drastically.

[HoopsDawg]

Fitz Qbr rankings nationally/pass epa...
2016: 19th/15.9
2017: 14th/11.5
2018: 65th/3.3

Wow, not even close to be an accurate post The Bruce Dickinson.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

Use whatever advanced metrics you want. His on the field numbers were almost identical.

MSU FPI 2017 vs. 2018

2017: 15th

2018: 12th

We were definitely a better team in 2018 right ? *

[BrunswickDawg]

Fitz Qbr rankings nationally/pass epa...
2016: 19th/15.9
2017: 14th/11.5
2018: 65th/3.3

Here is my issue with ESPN's QBR - can you actually define how any of the stats they use to compile it are created? Look at this:

PASS EPA: Expected points added on plays with pass attempts.
RUN EPA: Expected points added through rushes.
SACK EPA: Expected points added (lost) on sacks.
PEN EPA: Expected points added on penalties.
TOTAL EPA: Total expected points added.
ACT PLAYS: Action plays.
RAW QBR: Raw Total Quarterback Rating, which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale (not adjusted for opposing defenses faced)
TOTAL QBR: Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced.

How in the hell can you measure "Expected" anything. ESPN won't even release what makes up those metric. And keep in mind this quote from Wikipedia about QBR (yeah, I know, Wikipedia) - "Further criticism of QBR was brought about when, before some tinkering with the equation of QBR, Steelers quarterback Charlie Batch had the greatest individual game ever evaluated by QBR. Batch threw for 186 yards with two interceptions in the game."

Not to mention one of your regular favorites - profootballtalk says QBR is so bad they will ignore it. It's an ESPN vanity project gone amok.

ETA - I say all this and I like the shift to more advanced metrics. But, I think anything that gives the "value" of a play more weight then the end result, then it is open to a lot of subjectivity.

[msstate7]

Here is my issue with ESPN's QBR - can you actually define how any of the stats they use to compile it are created? Look at this:

PASS EPA: Expected points added on plays with pass attempts.
RUN EPA: Expected points added through rushes.
SACK EPA: Expected points added (lost) on sacks.
PEN EPA: Expected points added on penalties.
TOTAL EPA: Total expected points added.
ACT PLAYS: Action plays.
RAW QBR: Raw Total Quarterback Rating, which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale (not adjusted for opposing defenses faced)
TOTAL QBR: Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced.

How in the hell can you measure "Expected" anything. ESPN won't even release what makes up those metric. And keep in mind this quote from Wikipedia about QBR (yeah, I know, Wikipedia) - "Further criticism of QBR was brought about when, before some tinkering with the equation of QBR, Steelers quarterback Charlie Batch had the greatest individual game ever evaluated by QBR. Batch threw for 186 yards with two interceptions in the game."

Not to mention one of your regular favorites - profootballtalk says QBR is so bad they will ignore it. It's an ESPN vanity project gone amok.

"Total QBR takes each individual play and measures the expected points added (EPA) for each play. Since every play situation is different, there is a different value for EPA in each case. A team can expect a 0.9 net-point advantage when it is 1st down and 10 yards to go on their own 20 yard line. For the next play, suppose the team passes the ball 8 yards to reach their own 28 yard line on 2nd down and 2. The offense can now expect a 1.4 net-point advantage. EPA is the difference in the expected points at the start and end of a play. In this case it is 1.4 - 0.9 = 0.5 EPA. In a way, the offense has added a half point in potential score based on this play. Similarly, if a team loses yardage on a play, their EPA in that situation would be negative.

Total QBR takes EPA and adjusts it based on the difficulty of the play. If a quarterback is under duress and avoids a sack to throw a 10-yard pass, Total QBR will reward the quarterback in those situations more than a 10-yard pass with lots of time to throw. In addition, it understands the differences of passes that went 40 yards: the quarterback is rewarded more for a 40-yard pass compared to a 10-yard pass where the receiver ran for an extra 30 yards.

There is a discount on trash time. A 40-yard pass as time expires (without scoring a touchdown or field goal) is much different from a 40-yard pass with enough time to score points.

Total QBR takes into account the level of difficulty the opponent team?s defense is based on the opponent's? defensive FPI, among other factors.

Conceptualizing the detail Total QBR puts in can be explained through the 2015 NFC Wild Card game between the Green Bay Packers and the Washington Redskins.[6] Aaron Rodgers of the Packers completed 21 of 36 passes for 210 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, which computes to a 93.5 passer rating. Kirk Cousins of the Redskins completed 29 of 46 passes for 329 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, computing a 91.7 passer rating. Observing these statistics, one is likely to conclude that Cousins had a better overall game than Rodgers. However, the Packers went on to win 35-18.

Traditional passer statistics omit the rest of the impact that these quarterbacks made. Cousins also took 6 sacks, had 3 fumbles (1 lost), and 2 pre-snap penalties on Washington?s offense. Rodgers, on the other hand, took only one sack, did not fumble, and drew a number of defensive penalties to keep drives alive. Rodgers manufactured five scoring drives, posting an 87 Total QBR. Cousins? errors cost Washington the game, resulting in a Total QBR nearly 30 points lower."

...
Decent breakdown from the wiki page

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

[dantheman4248]

Did you actually just hang your hat on having more Vcash than someone else like it actually means something???

When dealing with a troll you don?t attack them where it would hurt a normal person. You attack their online ego. Of course VCash doesn?t actually matter, but to him it?s a reminder of his idiocy where he put his money where his mouth is and screwed up.

[BrunswickDawg]

"Total QBR takes each individual play and measures the expected points added (EPA) for each play. Since every play situation is different, there is a different value for EPA in each case. A team can expect a 0.9 net-point advantage when it is 1st down and 10 yards to go on their own 20 yard line. For the next play, suppose the team passes the ball 8 yards to reach their own 28 yard line on 2nd down and 2. The offense can now expect a 1.4 net-point advantage. EPA is the difference in the expected points at the start and end of a play. In this case it is 1.4 - 0.9 = 0.5 EPA. In a way, the offense has added a half point in potential score based on this play. Similarly, if a team loses yardage on a play, their EPA in that situation would be negative.

Total QBR takes EPA and adjusts it based on the difficulty of the play. If a quarterback is under duress and avoids a sack to throw a 10-yard pass, Total QBR will reward the quarterback in those situations more than a 10-yard pass with lots of time to throw. In addition, it understands the differences of passes that went 40 yards: the quarterback is rewarded more for a 40-yard pass compared to a 10-yard pass where the receiver ran for an extra 30 yards.

There is a discount on trash time. A 40-yard pass as time expires (without scoring a touchdown or field goal) is much different from a 40-yard pass with enough time to score points.

Total QBR takes into account the level of difficulty the opponent team?s defense is based on the opponent's? defensive FPI, among other factors.

Conceptualizing the detail Total QBR puts in can be explained through the 2015 NFC Wild Card game between the Green Bay Packers and the Washington Redskins.[6] Aaron Rodgers of the Packers completed 21 of 36 passes for 210 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, which computes to a 93.5 passer rating. Kirk Cousins of the Redskins completed 29 of 46 passes for 329 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, computing a 91.7 passer rating. Observing these statistics, one is likely to conclude that Cousins had a better overall game than Rodgers. However, the Packers went on to win 35-18.

Traditional passer statistics omit the rest of the impact that these quarterbacks made. Cousins also took 6 sacks, had 3 fumbles (1 lost), and 2 pre-snap penalties on Washington?s offense. Rodgers, on the other hand, took only one sack, did not fumble, and drew a number of defensive penalties to keep drives alive. Rodgers manufactured five scoring drives, posting an 87 Total QBR. Cousins? errors cost Washington the game, resulting in a Total QBR nearly 30 points lower."

...
Decent breakdown from the wiki page

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

Yeah, I read all that too. The problem is in their probability metrics to me. I get that they had computers compile a ton of data and it spit out and assigned value to different plays and they use that to create this formula. But, to me it gives way too much weight to the randomness of the game and discounts the actual results. Yes, it is harder to complete a pass when being pressured. But, that stat is going to be very dependent upon how good/bad your OL is. If you have a great OL that doesn't get you pressured much, your stats can be lower than someone with a bad OL. That does not mean the QB with the bad OL is better then the one with the good OL. If your WR are bad at getting open downfield, and you have to check down, you get penalized vs. a guy with strong receivers that can get open. To me, those things hurt QBR way more than they help it.

[StateDawg44]

When dealing with a troll you don?t attack them where it would hurt a normal person. You attack their online ego. Of course VCash doesn?t actually matter, but to him it?s a reminder of his idiocy where he put his money where his mouth is and screwed up.

https://media.giphy.com/media/8cdfoJuYuz2u27DAAO/giphy.gif


I mean..... I guess???

And actually, when dealing with a troll, it's best to just not feed them. That's basically it.

[Tbonewannabe]

At penn state in 2016, Moorhead was 58/42 run heavy; we were 56/44 run heavy in 2016. Moorhead was basically 50/50 in 2017; we were 64/36 run heavy in 2017. Moorhead hasn't proven pass heavy in P5 yet, actually

We were also 2nd in the SEC in rushing last year. I think a lot of that was Fitz either not reading the play correctly or just defaulting to running it himself. Either way, running the ball wasn't our problem. Mullen gave Fitz easy short throws but Moorhead's offense is more vertical. There was all kinds of problems last year and a big one was Fitz not taking live snaps until August along with losing a step from the injury. Our offense looked better in the 2nd half of the year. Who knows if Fitz would have ever actually "gotten" the offense but all the practice and the first game missed didn't do him any favors.