Some Mississippi recruiting analysis

[Irondawg]

3111

I went back and looked at years 2011-2015 to see how well the Mississippi HS prospects did and you can see there is almost a 50% absolute bust rate. 2011 was a strong year and while not on here 2016 was insanely good. But there hasn't been a lot of high end talent coming through our state lately, especially when it's split between several schools.

Injuries played a role in some and stupidity in others (Brassell) but I came away with the idea that while it's great to recruit the best in-state, we've got to work hard in the bordering states as well if we want to continue to stay in the top half of the SEC.

What takeaways do you all see?

[BrunswickDawg]

Can you explain the colors? I assume green=panned out; yellow=mediocre; red=bust?

If so you need to re-evaluate a couple - primarily in the 2015 class. Leo will be a 3+ year starter and will get a look at the NFL - that's not mediocre. Fletch might be drafted - so that's not mediocre either.
Tommy Champion will be a starting OL this year, and Tim Washington is in the 2 Deep at LB. At worst that is mediocre

To me, a bust is someone who produces nothing, transfers, or gets booted.

[Irondawg]

Green is solid starter...yellow is a guy who gets PT but isn't a impact player, red is bust.

Fletch is a guy who could move up with a good Sr. season. Same with Champion and Washington this year, but to do date neither of those guys has done really anything at all. I did thnk about putting Leo as green but honestly while he's played a lot he hasn't been all that great the past 2 years and lost a lot of PT to Gay. Some of them are certainly going to be a bit subjective.

I'd be curious how this compares to LA, TN and Bama so may take some time to do that at some point.

[BrunswickDawg]

Green is solid starter...yellow is a guy who gets PT but isn't a impact player, red is bust.

Fletch is a guy who could move up with a good Sr. season. Same with Champion and Washington this year, but to do date neither of those guys has done really anything at all. I did thnk about putting Leo as green but honestly while he's played a lot he hasn't been all that great the past 2 years and lost a lot of PT to Gay. Some of them are certainly going to be a bit subjective.

I'd be curious how this compares to LA, TN and Bama so may take some time to do that at some point.

I think people are a little hard on Leo because he was hyped so much (and OM hates him so much). He was only 3 tackles behind Gay last year (our #2 tackling LB); tied for first among LB with Errol for tackles in '17; and second on the team in total tackles in '16 (behind the machine that was Richie Brown and his 102 tackles). I'd say a legit beef is he hasn't produced a lot of the other stats (sacks, QBH, INT, etc). I think our defensive schemes have changes a lot since '16, and overall the the LBs don't produce the same way they did. From 2010-16 we almost always had LB's ranked #1 & #2 in tackles, and most of the time they racked up 100+ tackles. Even as good as Errol was last year, he only had 87. The past 2 years DB's have dominated our tackle stats. I think some of that is us getting away from the "bend, then break" defenses under Mullen. Another thing is - we have some really, really, good LBs - and it has allowed our defenses to flex our personnel more based on situations, and have 3-4 strong players splitting time and reps.

[bulldawg28]

I think people are a little hard on Leo because he was hyped so much (and OM hates him so much). He was only 3 tackles behind Gay last year (our #2 tackling LB); tied for first among LB with Errol for tackles in '17; and second on the team in total tackles in '16 (behind the machine that was Richie Brown and his 102 tackles). I'd say a legit beef is he hasn't produced a lot of the other stats (sacks, QBH, INT, etc). I think our defensive schemes have changes a lot since '16, and overall the the LBs don't produce the same way they did. From 2010-16 we almost always had LB's ranked #1 & #2 in tackles, and most of the time they racked up 100+ tackles. Even as good as Errol was last year, he only had 87. The past 2 years DB's have dominated our tackle stats. I think some of that is us getting away from the "bend, then break" defenses under Mullen. Another thing is - we have some really, really, good LBs - and it has allowed our defenses to flex our personnel more based on situations, and have 3-4 strong players splitting time and reps.

I agree. I've been extremely hard on Leo. If he would make the plays given to him he'd be on the same level as Errol.

[Johnson85]

3111

I went back and looked at years 2011-2015 to see how well the Mississippi HS prospects did and you can see there is almost a 50% absolute bust rate. 2011 was a strong year and while not on here 2016 was insanely good. But there hasn't been a lot of high end talent coming through our state lately, especially when it's split between several schools.

Injuries played a role in some and stupidity in others (Brassell) but I came away with the idea that while it's great to recruit the best in-state, we've got to work hard in the bordering states as well if we want to continue to stay in the top half of the SEC.

What takeaways do you all see?

Are you looking at the top rated recruits per 247 or another service?

I'd be interested to see how many Mississippi recruits go to Power 5 schools and whether they perform.

[ShotgunDawg]

There is about a 50% bust rate in the 1st round of the MLB draft & in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft.

As for why, you just can't underestimate the value of being in the right place & the right time.

Is CJ Johnson in the NFL if he went to MSU? Channing Ward?

Would a guy like Fletcher Adams have gotten more playing time at OM and developed into more or would AJ Brown have developed into an NFL with Gonzo as his coach? How about Dak without Mullen?

Point is, development matters

[R2Dawg]

There is about a 50% bust rate in the 1st round of the MLB draft & in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft.

As for why, you just can't underestimate the value of being in the right place & the right time.

Is CJ Johnson in the NFL if he went to MSU? Channing Ward?

Would a guy like Fletcher Adams have gotten more playing time at OM and developed into more or would AJ Brown have developed into an NFL with Gonzo as his coach? How about Dak without Mullen?

Point is, development matters

Agree lots of reasons why the success rate isn't higher. Having better players come in behind or some ahead is also a possibility. Injury, grades, changing positions, and attitude to name a few. Another big one is the "experts" just miss evaluated, just like they did on all the 2 stars that MSU turned into stars.

I'll also bet other states have similar percentages too.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Fletcher Adams is far from a bust

[1bigdawg]

Fletcher Adams is far from a bust

Same with Malik Dear. He started and make an impact when Mullen was here. You cannot downgrade him based just on last year.

[NWADAWG]

Hasn't Champion contributed some as well. There are a couple of those reds that might belong in the yellows.