Year 2 effect in the SEC East breakdown by ESPN talking about UT

[Tbonewannabe]

Kirby Smart's second UGA team went from 42nd in S&P+ to fourth. South Carolina improved from 85th to 41st in Will Muschamp's second year. Missouri went from 70th to 28th in Barry Odom's second season. Kentucky improved from 74th to 51st in Year 2 under Mark Stoops. Former Pruitt boss Nick Saban oversaw a leap from 31st to 10th at Alabama in 2008.

Year 2 is when your culture has a chance to truly take effect. Your players know what is expected of them, there are more of your own recruits in the pipeline, and if you made any shaky hires out of the gates, you've had a chance to rectify them. If you have success in you, this is when we probably begin to see it.

My opinion:

Does Joe have that kind of 2nd year increase like it talks about or does the Defensive situation kind of lower the improvement possibilities? We do return one of the best LB and Secondaries in the SEC with the DT being a big ???. Could our improvement on offense actually give us a chance at 9 to 10 wins or does the defensive regression prevent it along with playing the toss up games on the road with LSU really the only one at home.

[Tbonewannabe]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27146979/the-complete-sec-east-college-football-season-preview

Interesting from the ESPN article about UK:

Stoops has to replace nearly every player you could name from last year's squad: Allen, running back Benny Snell Jr., All-American offensive guard Bunchy Stallings, safeties Mike Edwards and Darius West, corners Derrick Baity Jr. and Lonnie Johnson Jr., etc. That's enough for the Wildcats to drop to 11th in the SEC, and sixth in the East, in both FPI and S&P+ projections.

[TrapGame]

Offensive improvement > Defensive regression

With a more adept offense and a QB that can throw a well placed deep ball it could really balance out the step back on defense.

[Tbonewannabe]

Offensive improvement > Defensive regression

With a more adept offense and a QB that can throw a well placed deep ball it could really balance out the step back on defense.

I could see us going from 68th at 28.5 to the 20-30s. It would only take 4 points per game and it honestly could happen purely from UK regressing on defense.

[msstate7]

We face 3 2nd year coaches in sec play this year. Do you expect big jumps from them also?

[Homedawg]

We face 3 2nd year coaches in sec play this year. Do you expect big jumps from them also?

No, just ours.***** THat's why UT will be so easy.

[Jarius]

If our defensive regression and offensive improvement are exactly the same we will probably win at a minimum of the same amount of games because the schedule is easier. I expect that to be the case.

[MedDawg]

Kirby Smart's second UGA team went from 42nd in S&P+ to fourth. South Carolina improved from 85th to 41st in Will Muschamp's second year. Missouri went from 70th to 28th in Barry Odom's second season. Kentucky improved from 74th to 51st in Year 2 under Mark Stoops. Former Pruitt boss Nick Saban oversaw a leap from 31st to 10th at Alabama in 2008.

Year 2 is when your culture has a chance to truly take effect. Your players know what is expected of them, there are more of your own recruits in the pipeline, and if you made any shaky hires out of the gates, you've had a chance to rectify them. If you have success in you, this is when we probably begin to see it.

My opinion:

Does Joe have that kind of 2nd year increase like it talks about or does the Defensive situation kind of lower the improvement possibilities? We do return one of the best LB and Secondaries in the SEC with the DT being a big ???. Could our improvement on offense actually give us a chance at 9 to 10 wins or does the defensive regression prevent it along with playing the toss up games on the road with LSU really the only one at home.

The difference between State and those teams is that all of those teams replaced poor-performing coaches while State replaced a good coach, so we weren't down like they were. State was in a similar situation for Mullen's 2nd year, and we did improve a lot over Mullen's first season.

[Jarius]

The difference between State and those teams is that all of those teams replaced poor-performing coaches while State replaced a good coach, so we weren't down like they were. State was in a similar situation for Mullen's 2nd year, and we did improve a lot over Mullen's first season.

We also replaced a coach that preferred a bulldozer at quarterback with a coach who prefers someone who knows how to throw a forward pass before arriving on campus. That philosophy change is a pretty big deal in hindsight. Hopefully Joe has (or at least will get) the correct players to run his system.

[Johnson85]

If our defensive regression and offensive improvement are exactly the same we will probably win at a minimum of the same amount of games because the schedule is easier. I expect that to be the case.

We probably should win more if that's the case. Last year, a pretty good defense instead of elite defense, and we still win all the games we won with the possible exceptions of KSU, Auburn, and A&M. If we are competent on offense, we probably win Florida and it at least puts UK and LSU in play.

[Covercorner2]

We probably should win more if that's the case. Last year, a pretty good defense instead of elite defense, and we still win all the games we won with the possible exceptions of KSU, Auburn, and A&M. If we are competent on offense, we probably win Florida and it at least puts UK and LSU in play.

Not to mention UK will be half the team they were last year this year. And it's at home.

[Ari Gold]

Well according to Finbaum , Pruitt is the heir apparent to Saban...
so we have no shot at Tenn...

[StateDawg44]

Finebaum likes anyone other than MSU though.

[Tbonewannabe]

Well according to Finbaum , Pruitt is the heir apparent to Saban...
so we have no shot at Tenn...

Finbaum also graduated from UT and loves Bama (I guess he doesn't get into the rivalry).

[BuckyIsAB****]

No, just ours.***** THat's why UT will be so easy.

If we cant beat UT this year we are not who we think we are

[Homedawg]

If we cant beat UT this year we are not who we think we are

That game isn't going to be some cake walk.

[TrapGame]

That game isn't going to be some cake walk.

They ain't Alabama. And Shoop wants this one bad. Cake walk? No. A good game against a decent opponent? Hell yeah.

This game will be a good measuring stick of where Joe has taken us thus far.

[Homedawg]

They ain't Alabama. And Shoop wants this one bad. Cake walk? No. A good game against a decent opponent? Hell yeah.

This game will be a good measuring stick of where Joe has taken us thus far.

I never said they were bama. No where close. And yes it's a game we could and maybe even should win. But until I see an offense w a pulse I'll reserve judgement. Be this time last year not a single soul would have predicted a loss to Kentucky, much less Kentucky and Florida.

[Ari Gold]

I never said they were bama. No where close. And yes it's a game we could and maybe even should win. But until I see an offense w a pulse I'll reserve judgement. Be this time last year not a single soul would have predicted a loss to Kentucky, much less Kentucky and Florida.

Agree this is a game we probably should win..
Outside of Bama and Maybe UGA
There isn’t a team in the SEC that can guarantee a road win Against anyone.

[Johnson85]

I never said they were bama. No where close. And yes it's a game we could and maybe even should win. But until I see an offense w a pulse I'll reserve judgement. Be this time last year not a single soul would have predicted a loss to Kentucky, much less Kentucky and Florida.

Our offense showed a pulse last year. We only sucked against good defenses. We did Ok versus ok defenses and killed mediocre or worse defenses.

Last year, UT gave up 40 to WEst Va, 47 to UF, 38 to UGA, 24 to Auburn (probably their second best defensive performance), 27 to USCe, 7 to UK (probably their best defensive performance), 50 to Mizzou, 38 to Vandy.

Maybe a lot of those points were actually on the offense, but I'm not aware of any reason to think UT's defense is going to be better than mediocre next year.

[TrapGame]

I never said they were bama. No where close. And yes it's a game we could and maybe even should win. But until I see an offense w a pulse I'll reserve judgement. Be this time last year not a single soul would have predicted a loss to Kentucky, much less Kentucky and Florida.

Well maybe the offense will have a pulse b/c we'll have a QB with a brain.

[Jarius]

Our offense showed a pulse last year. We only sucked against good defenses. We did Ok versus ok defenses and killed mediocre or worse defenses.

Last year, UT gave up 40 to WEst Va, 47 to UF, 38 to UGA, 24 to Auburn (probably their second best defensive performance), 27 to USCe, 7 to UK (probably their best defensive performance), 50 to Mizzou, 38 to Vandy.

Maybe a lot of those points were actually on the offense, but I'm not aware of any reason to think UT's defense is going to be better than mediocre next year.

What an outstanding, well thought out post.

[msstate7]

Well maybe the offense will have a pulse b/c we'll have a QB with a brain.

Jeez... the crap this board is giving fitz is embarrassing. Fitz was a top 20 QBR qb his first 2 years.

[TrapGame]

Jeez... the crap this board is giving fitz is embarrassing. Fitz was a top 20 QBR qb his first 2 years.

My friend, he missed wide open receivers, easy reads and was totally lost. I know you want Joe to be the bad guy but that's not the the case. This offense has worked everywhere he's been.

[Tbonewannabe]

Jeez... the crap this board is giving fitz is embarrassing. Fitz was a top 20 QBR qb his first 2 years.

I don't like running him down, he gave everything he had on the field. He was a still pretty raw QB pushed into an offense that didn't suit him. If he is in a straight up triple option offense then he would have blew apart rushing records, he just wasn't ever as consistent as a passing QB as he needed to be. Hopefully he works at it and makes some money holding a clipboard. Who knows, if he gets the right QB coach and offense maybe he can be a starting NFL QB. He has the arm talent, just not the consistency needed.

[Tbonewannabe]

My friend, he missed wide open receivers, easy reads and was totally lost. I know you want Joe to be the bad guy but that's not the the case. This offense has worked everywhere he's been.

It didn't help that Fitz first actual live rep in the offense was in August.

[msstate7]

My friend, he missed wide open receivers, easy reads and was totally lost. I know you want Joe to be the bad guy but that's not the the case. This offense has worked everywhere he's been.

Well it's settled, fitz has no brain. Congrats, you're an asshole for running him down like that.

[TrapGame]

It didn't help that Fitz first actual live rep in the offense was in August.

That too. And honestly it wasn't the same Fitz of 2017. That injury changed him.

[TrapGame]

Well it's settled, fitz has no brain. Congrats, you're an asshole for running him down like that.

All the shit that you spew on here and call someone an asshole.

**** you!!

[msstate7]

That too. And honestly it wasn't the same Fitz of 2017. That injury changed him.

Yeah, he lost his brain... hard to play qb with no brain

[msstate7]

All the shit that you spew on here and call someone an asshole.

**** you!!

When I go after someone, it's the ones that are paid. You don't see me running down players putting their bodies on the line out there.

[TrapGame]

Yeah, he lost his brain... hard to play qb with no brain

You start shit to start shit. You can't handle it. You want Joe to fail sooooo bad. I know your rooting against this season. You worthless prick.

[TrapGame]

When I go after someone, it's the ones that are paid. You don't see me running down players putting their bodies on the line out there.

He couldn't run the offense. He couldn't grasp it. Debate me you prick.

[msstate7]

You start shit to start shit. You can't handle it. You want Joe to fail sooooo bad. I know your rooting against this season. You worthless prick.

Whatever you wanna believe. I'll never resort to attacking our players with personal insults though

[TrapGame]

Whatever you wanna believe. I'll never resort to attacking our players with personal insults though

I don't think it was an insult. It was an apt analysis. Plus, based on the rumors he had plenty of off the field issues taking up his time other than football.

You're still a prick though.

[BrunswickDawg]

He couldn't run the offense. He couldn't grasp it. Debate me you prick.

And that is a better way to say it then he didn't have a brain.

Fitz left everything he had out on the field - but he was not able to elevate his passing game. He wasn't able to do that under Mullen's offense either, but also wasn't asked to perform like a more traditional QB like he was under Joe. There are a lot of posters on here who over the past 4 years have degenerated the kid a whole lot - some personal, some on field - without knowing a damn thing about who Nick Fitzgerald is as a person. I don't know him any better then anyone else on here does, but I would never assume that a failure to achieve to some random fan's expectations is an indicator of intelligence, work ethic, or abilities. Fitz is arguably the best QB not named Dak over the past 40 years - he sure as hell won as many or more games than anyone else - but, lets just go on running down one of our own.

[Johnson85]

And that is a better way to say it then he didn't have a brain.

Fitz left everything he had out on the field - but he was not able to elevate his passing game. He wasn't able to do that under Mullen's offense either, but also wasn't asked to perform like a more traditional QB like he was under Joe. There are a lot of posters on here who over the past 4 years have degenerated the kid a whole lot - some personal, some on field - without knowing a damn thing about who Nick Fitzgerald is as a person. I don't know him any better then anyone else on here does, but I would never assume that a failure to achieve to some random fan's expectations is an indicator of intelligence, work ethic, or abilities. Fitz is arguably the best QB not named Dak over the past 40 years - he sure as hell won as many or more games than anyone else - but, lets just go on running down one of our own.

Yea, I question whether the ability to make decisions quickly in a game environment is really closely correlated to intelligence to begin with. At really high levels I think it is, but I think that might have more to do with training and filmroom work. I have seen enough smart people not be able to process things quickly enough for basketball or football that I think it might be slightly negatively correlated at lower levels of play. I think intelligent people are more likely to suffer from overthinking with the resulting hesitation making them struggle.

[Martianlander]

None of you are invited to watch me work.

[Jack Lambert]

You worthless prick.

That means one of two things. Either it is really small or limped. You can fix both now.