ESPN breaking down the SEC West

[Tbonewannabe]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27150422/the-complete-sec-west-college-football-season-preview

From the article:

2018 record and rankings: 8-5 (No. 8 S&P+, No. 9 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 8.4 wins (No. 10)
2019 FPI projection: 7.7 wins (No. 16)

When this team was good, it was great. The high points revealed a level of upside few could match, and MSU finished the season eighth in S&P+ and ninth in FPI. (While the Bulldogs have to replace quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and a couple of dominant defensive linemen, they return virtually everybody else. They're projected to slip only to 10th in S&P+ and 16th in FPI.)

Those great moments, however, just made the mediocre moments more frustrating.

If you could slow down MSU's dominant run game, there was no Plan B. Fitzgerald was one of the best rushing QBs of the 2010s in college football, but Moorhead's run-pass option-heavy offense, which he perfected first as Fordham's head coach and then as Penn State's offensive coordinator, requires nifty deep balls to keep defenses honest. Fitzgerald's deep shots were below average at best.


My opinion:

I think Moorhead wasn't able to get Fitz comfortable and we were great at running the ball like we have in the past but when we went up against a great defense that took away the run, Fitz wasn't a good enough QB in this offense to do much. I think Mullen's offense was simplistic enough that Fitz was close to serviceable in those instances but we still ran into times like UGA and AU where we looked as inept as last year.

[msstate7]

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[BrunswickDawg]

Interesting that they have us tied for 3rd in the west with Auburn - both of us at 7.7 FPI and ahead of A&M at 7.4.

[msstate7]

Interesting that they have us tied for 3rd in the west with Auburn - both of us at 7.7 FPI and ahead of A&M at 7.4.

That would mean they predict us to lose an OOC game unless they predict aTm to beat Clemson

[Homedawg]

Interesting that they have us tied for 3rd in the west with Auburn - both of us at 7.7 FPI and ahead of A&M at 7.4.

Well yeah, look at the schedule difference.

[Tbonewannabe]

Interesting that they have us tied for 3rd in the west with Auburn - both of us at 7.7 FPI and ahead of A&M at 7.4.

I think they have more faith that Moorhead will develop a QB that runs his offense than a lot of posters here. It isn't rocket science. When you look over last year's games, Fitz rarely made the defense pay for coming up to stop the run.

[Tbonewannabe]

Well yeah, look at the schedule difference.

Auburn and A&M definitely have a tougher schedule this year which gives us a one game cushion. Last year was probably closer to even with us playing two East teams that ended up #7 and #12 in the country to go with our other 3 losses to #2, #6, and #25 (this is the only game that our offense performed).

[BrunswickDawg]

That would mean they predict us to lose an OOC game unless they predict aTm to beat Clemson

Where would you get that idea? They essentially have us at 8 wins and A&M at 7. So by your theory, we lose to KSU (at home no less), but go 5-3 in the SEC? That would make Ark., OM, UT, UK locks as wins; Bama and LSU locks as losses; and us beating either AU or A&M.

[msstate7]

Where would you get that idea? They essentially have us at 8 wins and A&M at 7. So by your theory, we lose to KSU (at home no less), but go 5-3 in the SEC? That would make Ark., OM, UT, UK locks as wins; Bama and LSU locks as losses; and us beating either AU or A&M.

I didn't think wins round up... 7.9 was 7 in my mind. I certainly could be wrong though. Even if you round us up to 8 and them to 7, that makes us both have 4 sec wins though, right? Well unless they predict aTm to lose 2 OOC games. They'd have to be predicting we beat aTm to finish ahead although tie breakers aren't used except for sec championship

The actual FPI rankings ranks us 5th in the west.

[Jack Lambert]

I think they have more faith that Moorhead will develop a QB that runs his offense than a lot of posters here. It isn't rocket science. When you look over last year's games, Fitz rarely made the defense pay for coming up to stop the run.

His history says he will.

[TrapGame]

I think they have more faith that Moorhead will develop a QB that runs his offense than a lot of posters here. It isn't rocket science. When you look over last year's games, Fitz rarely made the defense pay for coming up to stop the run.

If Nick could have successfully completed five or six deep balls a game we would be looking at a 10-2 record for 2018. And nobody would be bitching.

[thf24]

If Nick could have successfully completed five or six deep balls a game we would be looking at a 10-2 record for 2018. And nobody would be bitching.

I don't know if it was even specifically deep balls as much as it was usually not being able to get more through more than 1-2 guys in a progression and then get the ball where it needed to be on time. Despite the complaints about separation we had guys open a lot last year, but if they were 3rd or 4th in the progression they might as well not have been on the field, and even when Nick found the right guy he was often too late getting the ball out and the window had closed.

[R2Dawg]

Interesting that they have us tied for 3rd in the west with Auburn - both of us at 7.7 FPI and ahead of A&M at 7.4.

MSU getting the long desired respect now based on results and not just the media hype from others schools. We have been equal to Aub and TAMU since SEC expansion. They also recognize we have talent and I think they nailed the Moorhead and Fitz and Mullen situations. Jo gets his QB guy and we might see something special but Mullen's guy isn't going to fit Moorhead system.

[Turfdawg67]

But, but, but... Shotgun scoured the internet and found some boob in Brunswick, GA, who's office in the basement of a 7-11, who said we'd finish last!!

ETA... and that po ole Mittittipi Tate thread has 3 pages already.

[BrunswickDawg]

But, but, but... Shotgun scoured the internet and found some boob in Brunswick, GA, who's office in the basement of a 7-11, who said we'd finish last!!

ETA... and that po ole Mittittipi Tate thread has 3 pages already.

That's just patently wrong. He doesn't have an office in the basement of a 7-11. You hit groundwater here at about 3 feet - no one has basements. I would suspect his office is a converted storage room in the 7-11.

[Turfdawg67]

That's just patently wrong. He doesn't have an office in the basement of a 7-11. You hit groundwater here at about 3 feet - no one has basements. I would suspect his office is a converted storage room in the 7-11.

Ha! I'd give you rep if I could!