Hot Take: LSU Will only Win 8 Games This Year

[ShotgunDawg]

Last week we debated Texas A&M & this week it's LSU's turn.

Last season LSU went 10-3 (9-3 in the reg) & this year they return Joe Burreaux but lose the heart & soul of their defense Devon White.

My problem? Last year LSU may have been the worst 10-3 team of all time &, if you've followed my BS here long enough, you know one of my favorite sayings it "Averages tend to average out"

Here are the national ranks that led LS-Shoe, a virtual unicorn of analytics, to a 10-3 record in 2018

Total offense - 69
Total Defense - 25
Scoring offense - 38
Scoring Defense - 26
Passing Offense - 67 (bububububu, Joe Burreaux is a badass)
Rushing offense - 59
Rushing defense - 34
Passing Defense - 38

So what we have here is an extremely mediocre football team that does virtually nothing really good, but at the same time nothing really bad.

So how did they do it?

Field Goals - 10th in the nation
Turnover margin - 7th; +12 on year
Opponent Penalties - 9th overall.

So essentially LSU won by not beating themselves last year, but I don't believe the FG rank, turnover margin, & opponent penalties are sustainable. I believe those things mostly average out over time & aren't very predictable from one year to the next. I believe LSU will certainly be a good team this year, but are due some bad breaks in 2019 unless they've substantially improved on both sides of the ball.

Here is how I see it shaking out.

https://i.imgur.com/Cv7FdLk.jpg

- I think Texas gets them. Road game & Texas will be ready. Again, LSU played above themselves last year.
- Bama will kill them
- I think they lose 2 of vs Florida, MSU, & Auburn
- I do think they beat A&M, but it'll be interesting.
- Utah State went 11-2 in 2018 & catch LSU after an off week when they'll surely be rusty in the 1st half. Keep an eye on that game.

[RiverCityDawg]

You make some good points, but I see them winning at least 3 out of these 5 - @Texas, Auburn, @State, Florida and Texas A&M - which would give them 9 wins. I think it's more likely that they win 4 of these than just 2, so in other words I think it's more likely they win 10 than 8. Would 8 shock me? No, but I think they will likely be a better team than probably 10 or 11 teams on their schedule.

I hope you're right though.

[msstate7]

You say aTm gets the loss at LSU here ( https://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread.php?75196-Hot-Take-Texas-A-amp-M-Will-Only-Win-7-Games-This-Year ), but here you got it as a toss up

[msstate7]

I say 10-2. Bama and one of Texas, Florida, and aTm get them

[ShotgunDawg]

You say aTm gets the loss at LSU here ( https://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread.php?75196-Hot-Take-Texas-A-amp-M-Will-Only-Win-7-Games-This-Year ), but here you got it as a toss up

Middle finger*

Thoughts from one week to the next don't correlate.

[msstate7]

Middle finger*

Thoughts from one week to the next don't correlate.

Haha... I sold you on jimbo

[ShotgunDawg]

I think they will likely be a better team than probably 10 or 11 teams on their schedule.

I don't disagree with this, but I think they are due to some bad breaks and for the Ogre quotient to start kicking in.

If they were so good, why didn't they excel in really any area last season?

[ShotgunDawg]

Haha... I sold you on jimbo

Middle finger

[msstate7]

Once they get 10-2 this year, I think aranda leaves. This will start the beginning of the end for O

[ShotgunDawg]

Once they get 10-2 this year, I think aranda leaves. This will start the beginning of the end for O

I'm confused at why his name never gets thrown around in head coaching circles

[RiverCityDawg]

I don't disagree with this, but I think they are due to some bad breaks and for the Ogre quotient to start kicking in.

If they were so good, why didn't they excel in really any area last season?

One reason I think football is the greatest sport in the world is stats don't always tell the story of what makes a good team. "You are what your record says you are" and sometimes it's hard to explain. They made the plays when it mattered, forced the turnovers, played disciplined etc. and got it done. They might not do that stuff again this year, but we know they at least have the pure talent. I don't ever count on LSU being UNlucky.

[Lord McBuckethead]

You make some good points, but I see them winning at least 3 out of these 5 - @Texas, Auburn, @State, Florida and Texas A&M - which would give them 9 wins. I think it's more likely that they win 4 of these than just 2, so in other words I think it's more likely they win 10 than 8. Would 8 shock me? No, but I think they will likely be a better team than probably 10 or 11 teams on their schedule.

I hope you're right though.

I agree with this. Nothing would surprise me between 8 and 10 wins. But 10 is more likely than 8 IMO.

[BuckyIsAB****]

I say 10-2. Bama and one of Texas, Florida, and aTm get them

I agree except I think our game with them is a toss up. We could win that game pretty handily if we play well. They are going to run it down Texas's throat

[BuckyIsAB****]

I'm confused at why his name never gets thrown around in head coaching circles

Because he has one of the highest salaries for a DC in CFB, is close with Orgeron and LSU may be the easiest school in the country to recruit for

[BuckyIsAB****]

They beat Auburn losses to UF and on the road to State. They could win both however. 9-3 with losses to State, UF and Bama

[TrapGame]

They go into Florida 5-0. Texas will be a feather in their cap. O will get a lot of praise for that win. Then Florida beats them in DV. We beat them the next week. All of a sudden Auburn is a must win to stop the bleeding.

[Bothrops]

Losses to Bama and either Auburn or Florida.

[DancingRabbit]

Everybody said O would run it off the rails last year, but it didn't happen. I think it will unravel at some point but it seems like their schedule this year sets up nicely. Unless it unravels.

FPI didn't even have them in the top 25 last year, and this year they are favored in 11 games. FPI says we are their biggest threat after Bama. FPI has them at 9.5 wins and Vegas has them at 9.

I'd love to see us beat that ass. It will be close but Joe could win over the naysayers in one swoop.

At this point 9 seems most likely.

[Skydawg1]

LSU will have to score TD's to win games this year. As previously stated, kicking FG's was their MO last year. That guy's gone. (The one who fell into their laps last year)