Weather Dawgs - Tropical Storm Barry

[preachermatt83]

This tropical system that is expected to form could hit land anywhere between Texas and Florida. My question is, in your opinion, what is the time frame for this thing to hit and get out. I?m leaving for Gulf Shores on Saturday and our Fastpitch team starts playing in the utrip World Series on Tuesday!! Wondering if we should expect anything or if it should be gone by the weekend. Thanks guys!!

[starkvegasdawg]

It is looking more like a TX landfall this weekend, but that's far from certain. It looks like it's going to get just offshore and then start moving west. When it turns back north into land is anyone's guess. You may have some rain Saturday, but by Tuesday you should be good to go tropical wise and just back to your typical coastal summer pattern.

[MetEdDawg]

Models are in fairly good agreement that in 72 hours (late Thursday into Friday) that this will be south of Louisiana heading towards Texas.

I think this is probably the correct solution due to the Ridge over the Rockies having a more westerly steering influence. Could still be some change but for now that seems to be the consensus solution. But I will caution that it is hard to know exactly what will happen since this thing hasn't been in water yet. Next few runs should give better initialization points.

[preachermatt83]

Thanks guys!!

[MetEdDawg]

Models seem to be shifting back east now. I would be very careful with this one. The potential for stalling or moving very very slowly over an abnormally warm gulf seems very likely.

This has the potential to be one of those that surprises a crap ton of people. If you have any plans between Pensacola and the eastern side of Texas you need to make sure you stay vigilant. I do think the hot spot is from the right half of Louisiana across to Mobile. But that could change.

I would expect Barry to be named by some time late tonight or tomorrow. This one has the potential to ramp up and really catch people by surprise.

Pay attention to the NHC website here:

www.nhc.noaa.gov

If you are a model nerd like me and like looking at models, I love this website for tropical models:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[starkvegasdawg]

If it ends up anywhere along the MS coast and near hurricane strength then I'm strongly considering making the jaunt south. I can neither confirm nor deny I have a map of all the parking garages from Bay St Louis to the FloraBama.

[MetEdDawg]

If you are in New Orleans get out. Projections are for the MS River to crest at 20 feet. That's going to inundate the city worse than Katrina.

They haven't seen a 20 foot flood crest since the 1920's. Could get very very ugly there.

[timotheus]

Just talked to folks near the french quarter. It's deeeep already

[ScoobaDawg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4oejg-PO-s


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3I_zj4Q8uGk

[Jack Lambert]

If you are in New Orleans get out. Projections are for the MS River to crest at 20 feet. That's going to inundate the city worse than Katrina.

They haven't seen a 20 foot flood crest since the 1920's. Could get very very ugly there.

Crank the pumps up.

[starkvegasdawg]

New Orleans should have never been built.

[Bass Chaser]

Does this rain in New Orleans have anything to do with the storm in the Gulf? I saw the mayor said it didn't.

[DownwardDawg]

Does this rain in New Orleans have anything to do with the storm in the Gulf? I saw the mayor said it didn't.

No. It’s President Bush’s fault. (Still)

Yes. The rain this morning in Nola was part of the low system in the Gulf.

[ScoobaDawg]

From Crown Weather this afternoon:

Crown Weather Plus Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday Afternoon, July 10, 2019

Some Thoughts About The Potential For Major Catastrophic Flooding In New Orleans This Weekend

I am EXTREMELY CONCERNED about the potential for flooding in New Orleans this weekend due to the combination of record river heights, heavy rainfall of up to 6 to 12 inches of accumulation, strong onshore winds and a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.
The Mississippi River at New Orleans is already at 16 feet and is expected to reach 20 feet by Saturday morning. The levees can handle a surge of up to 20 feet before they fail. This forecast is not an exact science and does not include all of the rainfall that is expected in the coming days. In addition, it does not include the waves that will likely top 20 feet.

This all spells a potential major catastrophic flood disaster for New Orleans. In addition, other levees along the Mississippi River are likely to fail in the coming days and especially this weekend.

Bottom Line Is That New Orleans and cities and towns along the Mississippi River need to be preparing NOW for what could be the worst flooding since 1927. This looks about as bad as it can be in terms of flood threat.

Finally, the flooding that occurred today in New Orleans is just a prelude to what is likely coming in terms of flooding. The true flood conditions will not arrive until Friday night and Saturday. So, it is time now to think about evacuations.
4 likes

[MetEdDawg]

From Crown Weather this afternoon:

Crown Weather Plus Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday Afternoon, July 10, 2019

Some Thoughts About The Potential For Major Catastrophic Flooding In New Orleans This Weekend

I am EXTREMELY CONCERNED about the potential for flooding in New Orleans this weekend due to the combination of record river heights, heavy rainfall of up to 6 to 12 inches of accumulation, strong onshore winds and a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.
The Mississippi River at New Orleans is already at 16 feet and is expected to reach 20 feet by Saturday morning. The levees can handle a surge of up to 20 feet before they fail. This forecast is not an exact science and does not include all of the rainfall that is expected in the coming days. In addition, it does not include the waves that will likely top 20 feet.

This all spells a potential major catastrophic flood disaster for New Orleans. In addition, other levees along the Mississippi River are likely to fail in the coming days and especially this weekend.

Bottom Line Is That New Orleans and cities and towns along the Mississippi River need to be preparing NOW for what could be the worst flooding since 1927. This looks about as bad as it can be in terms of flood threat.

Finally, the flooding that occurred today in New Orleans is just a prelude to what is likely coming in terms of flooding. The true flood conditions will not arrive until Friday night and Saturday. So, it is time now to think about evacuations.
4 likes





This right here. The big problem is that there has already been quite a bit of rain. Then, not only is this system going to be dumping rain, but raising sea level and not allowing the MS to flow as quickly as it could because of its location.

Spells disaster for the city. The concern I have is that this has snuck up on people and that it is becoming too late to get out because of what flooding is already occurring. People aren't taking it seriously because we aren't talking about a massive hurricane. It's just going to be a tropical storm or low end hurricane. But because of what's already fallen and the amount of rain that will come over the next 4 days, it could be very bad.

This has the potential to make a lot of people rethink a lot of stuff regarding weather and alerts and paying attention to that. This could be really really bad

[Liverpooldawg]

New Orleans should have never been built.

400 years ago water transport was the only economical way to move large amounts of goods over long distances. New Orleans was built to control the mouth of waterway that drained half the North American continent. That's why it's still there.

[MrKotter]

New Orleans should have never been built.
Might be the most ignorant, idiotic statement ever posted on here. It takes strong talent to be this ignorant

[preachermatt83]

If this thing hits where it’s expected to hit then what are your opinions on the rainfall amounts in gulf shores and also when would the rain for that area likely stop? Thanks.

[MetEdDawg]

If this thing hits where it’s expected to hit then what are your opinions on the rainfall amounts in gulf shores and also when would the rain for that area likely stop? Thanks.

Precipitation forecast showing between 3 and 5 inches for Gulf Shores. That's still uncertain because there isn't a localized center yet. But I would expect it would be out by Sunday

[turkish]

Might be the most ignorant, idiotic statement ever posted on here. It takes strong talent to be this ignorant
Yep yep. But Ima infer he’s a HS and college grad, in which case ignorance isn’t actually possible. It’s something else.

[starkvegasdawg]

Might be the most ignorant, idiotic statement ever posted on here. It takes strong talent to be this ignorant

Not as dumb as building a 17ing city in a bowl below sea level. When you have to have pumps installed to pump the city dry every time you get a heavy dew then maybe you didn't choose the best location.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Damn folks, relax. While it may have been a poor choice of words, New Orleans was built in a piss-poor location; geography and history be-damned. Based upon some of the comments, you would have thought SVD had disparaged a former Vietnam POW or something.

[turkish]

I’m no NOLA lover. But. When it’s all said and done and NOLA has to pick and and move and this country looks at its “NOLA balance sheet” for the last several centuries, there will be no doubt that the juice was worth the squeeze.

[Todd4State]

Not as dumb as building a 17ing city in a bowl below sea level. When you have to have pumps installed to pump the city dry every time you get a heavy dew then maybe you didn't choose the best location.

There isn't a city in America that doesn't have to deal with some type of potential natural disaster. Madison, MS- tornados. Los Angeles- earthquakes. New York- blizzards. It is what it is.

[msbulldog]

There isn't a city in America that doesn't have to deal with some type of potential natural disaster. Madison, MS- tornados. Los Angeles- earthquakes. New York- blizzards. Oxford, Ms - Assholes, Cheaters and Yancy!

[FriarsPoint]

At some point the Mississippi is going to flow into the Atchafalaya and there’s nothing we can do to stop it.

[Schultzy]

New Orleans should have never been built.
No shit, port cities have to rank among some of the stupidest ideas mankind has ever come up with. What the hell could they ever be good for?

[Skydawg1]

I used to love that town, but not so much nowadays. Used to go down there once a month. Been once since 2013. I wish no ill will because the media coverage will be nauseating, but some might say it's karma for opening the Bonne Carre and ruining the MS gulf coast for months.

[Dawgpile]

At some point the Mississippi is going to flow into the Atchafalaya and there’s nothing we can do to stop it.

I've made this point before... Make preparations now to secure that NO & BR are still viable when it happens.

They'll open the Morganza spillway soon... Another band-aid.

[starkvegasdawg]

No shit, port cities have to rank among some of the stupidest ideas mankind has ever come up with. What the hell could they ever be good for?

Don't believe I said port cities were good for nothing. I said putting one in an area that floods every time a toilet backs up not the smartest of ideas. Especially when that area is prone to hurricanes. There's plenty of other port cities where they don't have to bury people above ground to keep the caskets from floating out of the ground.

[Todd4State]

Don't believe I said port cities were good for nothing. I said putting one in an area that floods every time a toilet backs up not the smartest of ideas. Especially when that area is prone to hurricanes. There's plenty of other port cities where they don't have to bury people above ground to keep the caskets from floating out of the ground.

So where is a perfect place to live? Again- you have to deal with Mother Nature wherever you live. You can't name one place in America or the world for that matter that doesn't have something to deal with.

[starkvegasdawg]

So where is a perfect place to live? Again- you have to deal with Mother Nature wherever you live. You can't name one place in America or the world for that matter that doesn't have something to deal with.

True. But some places are better options than others. Tornadoes can hit anywhere so one place is not statistically better than another. Yes, I know tornado alley has more than Nevada, but there's still no rhyme or reason to where they form. Severe weather events are also few and far between. But New Orleans is in an area where regular storms can cause flooding like we saw today.

[Todd4State]

True. But some places are better options than others. Tornadoes can hit anywhere so one place is not statistically better than another. Yes, I know tornado alley has more than Nevada, but there's still no rhyme or reason to where they form. Severe weather events are also few and far between. But New Orleans is in an area where regular storms can cause flooding like we saw today.

I wouldn't consider a tropical storm or a hurricane a "regular storm". This is a potential one in a 100 year flood- the last being in 1927 before the current levee system was developed. There is nothing "normal" about this.

[Skydawg1]

Today's flooding was just from storms. Barry hasn't even knocked on the door yet. They better be saying their Hail Mary's down there.

[Liverpooldawg]

Today's flooding was just from storms. Barry hasn't even knocked on the door yet. They better be saying their Hail Mary's down there.

Those storms are associated with what may become Barry.

[Liverpooldawg]

No shit, port cities have to rank among some of the stupidest ideas mankind has ever come up with. What the hell could they ever be good for?

Yeah, absolutely no reason for one near the mouth of a river that drains 2/3 of a country.*****

[Cooterpoot]

that drains 2/3 of a country.*****

I?ve been with a woman that did the same. Didn?t build her a city. But, we all know God is sending this rain to wash away all the sin in that city***

[TimberBeast]

Winds at 35 knots now so it’s tropical storm Barry. Shifting a little bit more to the east.

[Johnson85]

True. But some places are better options than others. Tornadoes can hit anywhere so one place is not statistically better than another. Yes, I know tornado alley has more than Nevada, but there's still no rhyme or reason to where they form. Severe weather events are also few and far between. But New Orleans is in an area where regular storms can cause flooding like we saw today.

So where do you think the port on the mouth of the MIssissippi should be? Clearly there is going to be one. What place do you think would have made more sense?

Also, when people think about "New Orleans" flooding, I think they are generally not thinking of how it will actually play out. Not positive, but I think the parts of New Orleans most people think about are decently high. It's a lot of the later development, after the high spots were saturated, that is going to flood.

[FriarsPoint]

https://biggerpieforum.org/environment/ms-river-in-danger-of-being-captured-by-the-atchafalaya-river/?fbclid=IwAR15RjUE7VoAqwJJOMyl1wNXuik7TfUDXn5QcaEK RLpsYQrvM-hx3Fo9yUQ

[Liverpooldawg]

So where do you think the port on the mouth of the MIssissippi should be? Clearly there is going to be one. What place do you think would have made more sense?

Also, when people think about "New Orleans" flooding, I think they are generally not thinking of how it will actually play out. Not positive, but I think the parts of New Orleans most people think about are decently high. It's a lot of the later development, after the high spots were saturated, that is going to flood.

Yep, mot of the old town stayed dry in Katrina.

[ScoobaDawg]

https://biggerpieforum.org/environment/ms-river-in-danger-of-being-captured-by-the-atchafalaya-river/?fbclid=IwAR15RjUE7VoAqwJJOMyl1wNXuik7TfUDXn5QcaEK RLpsYQrvM-hx3Fo9yUQ

It's an interesting subject. I really think it's not if but when.. and it's going to a major disaster that kills many and changes the whole united states.. if not the world.

[starkvegasdawg]

So where do you think the port on the mouth of the MIssissippi should be? Clearly there is going to be one. What place do you think would have made more sense?

Also, when people think about "New Orleans" flooding, I think they are generally not thinking of how it will actually play out. Not positive, but I think the parts of New Orleans most people think about are decently high. It's a lot of the later development, after the high spots were saturated, that is going to flood.

Except it's not at the mouth. The MS River extends another 70 miles past NOLA before it empties into the Gulf. Should have been somewhere west of Lake Ponchatrain.

[Liverpooldawg]

Except it's not at the mouth. The MS River extends another 70 miles past NOLA before it empties into the Gulf. Should have been somewhere west of Lake Ponchatrain.

And then another power comes in and occupies where NOLA is. That's why it is where it is.

[Todd4State]

Except it's not at the mouth. The MS River extends another 70 miles past NOLA before it empties into the Gulf. Should have been somewhere west of Lake Ponchatrain.

In the swamp?

[starkvegasdawg]

And then another power comes in and occupies where NOLA is. That's why it is where it is.

Right smack dab in the bottom of a toilet bowl.

[turkish]

Except it's not at the mouth. The MS River extends another 70 miles past NOLA before it empties into the Gulf. Should have been somewhere west of Lake Ponchatrain.
Lol. Just stop. West of Pontchartrain is swamp and then Greater BR.

[Johnson85]

Except it's not at the mouth. The MS River extends another 70 miles past NOLA before it empties into the Gulf. Should have been somewhere west of Lake Ponchatrain.

You see any ground higher than New Orleans along that 70 miles?

And I'm not sure what high ground is wets of Lake Ponchatrain. I've been to a couple of places like White Castle, and as far as I can tell, the river more or less goes through swamp or very low lying land up until almost Baton Rouge. Not sure if any of that land is higher than the high parts of new orleans, but if it is, I doubt it would be enough to justify the additional distance the ships would have to go.

[BrunswickDawg]

NOLA was established where it was by Europeans mainly Native Americans had been living in that location for 1200 years already. Many colonial era cities are where they are for this same reason - especially in the Southeast. NOLA, St. Augustine, Pensacola, Mobile, Natchez, Memphis were all originally trading outposts established at existing large native settlements/towns that then grew as trade and colonization increased.

[starkvegasdawg]

Lol. Just stop. West of Pontchartrain is swamp and then Greater BR.

Maybe it is. I haven't looked at a topo map. I just know putting a major metropolitan city in the middle of a swamp that's below sea level was not a good idea.

https://www.weather.gov/lix/ms_flood_history

Here's the food history of NOLA. It averages a flood that lasts over 30 days once every three years.

[EngDawg]

The people who built NOLA were not thinking about a city of 1.2 million people facing flooding and river channel issues in the 21st century. New Orleans is where it is. The river would have deserted the city in the mid twentieth century, but the Corps decided to build the Old River Control Structure and stop it. So now we have two options. Option 1 is to continue to try and control nature and hope we’re good enough to keep the river going where we want it and flooding to a minimum. Option 2 is to abandon NOLA, open the gates at Old River, flood Atchfalya, and build a new port city where the river eventually settles. Option 2 is unthinkable, so we will go with Option 1 until we are overwhelmed.

[MadDawg]

Here's the food history of NOLA. It averages a flood that lasts over 30 days once every three years.

Now, come on. It's only once every 100 years. ***

[ScoobaDawg]

Alright let's get back on track. Barry is still very disorganized and does not have a center. Dry air over the center and north side of the storm is keeping it from getting organized. This should stop when popup storms over lower alabama this afternoon saturate the air. Look at the dark colored area in this tweet.
1149339763394207744

Radar showing how the dry air is affecting the northern side of Barry..
1149352989741789184

and finally.. very important. determining where the center will be when and if the storm gets stacked up.
1149370916754866176

[ScoobaDawg]

annnnd twitter is down.. so you can't see the images. lovely.

[ScoobaDawg]

twitters coming back.
Dry slot filling in.

Pressure down to 998 was just found by recon. Concerning is that the reading was found at 28.9N 88.7W (was 27.8N 88.7W at 10am)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=wv-mid (full loop)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_wv-mid_nwatl_201907111935.jpg

[ScoobaDawg]

1149460132637679616

[DownwardDawg]

https://i.postimg.cc/PqRdsx08/0-CA0476-D-0-F07-4-C35-9-DF4-C2700-EACAF37.jpg


I?m so glad the Weather channel has live coverage of Irma!!! But I?m paying attention to Barry!!!

[Todd4State]

Maybe it is. I haven't looked at a topo map. I just know putting a major metropolitan city in the middle of a swamp that's below sea level was not a good idea.

https://www.weather.gov/lix/ms_flood_history

Here's the food history of NOLA. It averages a flood that lasts over 30 days once every three years.

Misleading at best. It looks to me more like NOLA controls potential floods pretty well based on that data. You can't call opening the spillway to control a potential flood a "flood".

[ScoobaDawg]

Dry air has been cutoff and will likely strengthen overnight once it gets storms developed around the center of circulation.

1149519759471366144

[starkvegasdawg]

Don't know if it'll have time to strengthen to a hurricane, but rain, not wind, will be the major impact. Even here in Starkville the forecast is for widespread 4-7" and 10"+ in isolated spots.

[ScoobaDawg]

Don't know if it'll have time to strengthen to a hurricane, but rain, not wind, will be the major impact. Even here in Starkville the forecast is for widespread 4-7" and 10"+ in isolated spots.

Correct. projections have moved more east in Louisana..and the northern circulation is still being cutoff by dry air. The CoC is exposed so can't ramp up speeds very fast.

[MetEdDawg]

May see some strengthening at the 10 AM advisory. Hurricane recon seems to have found 60 MPH surface winds around 50 miles SE of the center.

[MetEdDawg]

Winds did get bumped up to 65 MPH. Hurricane potential back on the table now.

QPF showing a max in some places in Louisiana of 30+ inches of rain potentially.

[preachermatt83]

What are estimated rain totals for gulf shoreS? And when should the rain stop there?