Todd4State
07-07-2019, 10:35 PM
Just in general- I think the team is disappointed with last year just as much as we are. This is a totally different vibe- last year a lot of people were expecting 10+ wins and thinking that we were possibly going to be special. As we know- it turns out only the defense was special and some things that we hoped would happen on offense just didn't. But- that's over and it's time to put it behind us. I think this team will use that disappointment to motivate them this year. The good news is Joe acquired some key transfers that we really need to step up- which is a nice change. How those transfers pan out will play a huge role in the kind of year that we will have.
QB- Some people may say that there is a competition between Stevens and Key but we all know that Stevens is going to be the QB. I think we are very fortunate how this turned out because Stevens knows the offense better than Kelly Bryant and so much of playing QB is understanding the offense. Stevens is simply the most important pick up of the offseason because for us to have success we must improve in the passing game. If we do it will open up the running game more. I know Joe wants a completion percentage of 65% but if Stevens can get to 58% we will be better on offense. If he gets to 65% I think we are in for a special season to be quite frank. The other thing that we need from him is 20+ TD passes and 5-10 INT's along with 500 yards rushing and 10 rushing TD's. Those are numbers similar to what Trace McSorley put up and the passing numbers are markedly better than Fitzgerald's although the rushing yards total is about half. It would be a season similar to Dak's senior year as well statistically speaking. The other thing that I'm hopeful for is that Stevens will make better decision in the passing, option, and RPO games. I think that's where Fitzgerald really bogged down the offense. Even as much as the offense struggled we were still in the top half of the league in 3rd down conversion percentage and red zone scoring percentage. But we were also 6th in the league in both and 14th in the league in 4th down conversion percentage. Not bad on the surface for the first two- but also room to improve if we can move into the top 3-5 in all of those categories we will be much better. Interestingly enough we were first in the SEC in red zone TD conversion percentage. That tells me that there is good potential here for this offense with the right pieces in place. Another issue last year was the lack of explosive plays in the passing game as we were in the bottom half of the SEC in explosive pass plays but in the top half of the SEC in explosive running plays. When you add both the explosive pass and run plays together we were again near the bottom of the SEC. Get the explosive pass plays up some and we will be cooking with gas.
RB- Kylin Hill is an explosive player himself. I think he is going to have a special year similar to JJ Johnson his junior or senior year. We need him to stay healthy and rush for 1000 yards. If the passing game improves it will only help him and make him that much more dangerous. If he improves his blocking to go along with his pass catching skills he will be a complete back. Nick Gibson is solid but I don't think he will get the reps that Aeris got. Kareem Walker and Lee Witherspoon are wild cards. If one of them step up it will make our offense that much better because no one expects that from us at this point.
WR- Isiah Zuber is the second biggest pick up behind Stevens. He needs to be the reliable WR that we can go to in critical situations. If he can be that I think it will help Stephen Guidry and Osirus Mitchell out a lot. It may both take some pressure off of Guidry as well as motivate him to be a better player. Osirus in the spring game still looks extremely raw as well which is concerning. The good news is Zuber has the skill set to play X, Z, and slot so we can potentially move him around to create match ups which was something we really couldn't do last year. Hopefully Stevens will have better rapport with Guidry and Mitchell than Fitzgerald or Key did. It would be nice if Whop and Austin Williams turn the corner because both are going to be more productive than Osirus and Guidry by the time their careers end. I'm very hopeful that Whop has a career arc similar to Fred Ross. Which would mean becoming an impact player by midseason. Osirus just doesn't flash enough on the field to make me believe that he can turn the corner. If he doesn't prove me wrong I hope that Whop improves enough to overtake him.
TE- We're pretty deep here. Farrod Green is a good player who is a glue guy and good leader. Dontae Jones is IMO an even better player that is more athletic and can make big time plays that Farrod hasn't really shown that he can do at this point. Spivey is similar to Jones in that regard as well and could be a surprise. Cumbest is also a solid player as well. With our depth here and the question marks at WR using two TE sets about a third of the time probably would be a pretty decent idea.
OL- One thing about the past two years is because of Hevesy's poor recruiting we've had to play some people out of position. Marcus Johnson has done a great job of correcting that- and I think it will pay dividends this year. Our offensive tackle play was pretty poor at times- and Eiland really struggled badly against the better pass rushers in the SEC. I think Joe was hesitant to move people back to where they fit because we returned so many guys but the attrition from graduation has helped solve that. Daryl Williams is an All-SEC candidate at C. Stewart Reese moving to guard is going to help him out a lot. Dauren Parker and Michael Story are both guards with some experience. Tyre Phillips I thought was our best OT last year and really improved after the Kentucky game. Tommy Champion also improved as the year went along and I think Eiland fits much better at right tackle than left. The fact that there is a competition here is a good thing. If Phillips can protect the passer better than Eiland did it will help immensely.
DL- There is a lot of concern here but I honestly think it won't be as bad as people think. We return Chauncey Rivers, Kobe Jones, Marquiss Spencer, and Fletcher Adams who have all been productive players at DE. Obviously you don't replace a Jeffrey Simmons but if Lee Autry can be the solid space eater he was last year and if one of our young four star DT's like Fabien Lovett and Nathan Pickering play at a respectable level at the other DT spot we should be fine. Probably not number one in the country- but I think top 20 is possible. I think Shoop is going to play call this defense a little bit differently than last year because of what we have. We may see Spencer at DT some in packages similar to how we used Rivers some last year.
LB- The other thing I think we may see more of as far as playcalling is perhaps seeing the LB's blitz and rush the passer more than we did last year since this group is one of the strengths of the defense. This could be one of the best linebacking groups in MSU history. Leo Lewis is a fifth year senior and he has been a solid player for us. I think he will finish his career strong. Erroll Thompson had similar analytical ratings to Devin White of LSU last year who was a first round pick. I could see Thompson really breaking out nationally this year. He reminds me of Barrin Simpson but with NFL measurables. Willie Gay could also declare early as well and is a playmaker. He has a good knack for creating turnovers and is kind of a poor man's Tyran Mathieu type of player.
CB- We're really strong here. Cam Dantzler is yet another candidate to leave for the NFL early and is a legit shutdown corner. Maurice Smitherman is a little undersized but he makes plays and rates very high analytically as well matching what the eye sees. This group along with the linebackers are why I don't think we will have fall off the planet on defense.
S- I think Brian Cole is going to surprise a lot of experts this year. He was outstanding when he was healthy. Jaquarious Landrews surprised me last year and I think he will be a good player for us next year as well. CJ Morgan Walker was also really solid as well and then we'll see Fred Peters in the mix. So, lots of competition here but some good options.
Flex/Hybrid- I'm curious to see where Jerrian Jones fits into the defense? I think he plays as a freshman but where exactly I'm not sure. My guess would be CB. Marcus Murphy is also a really athletic and talented player but I'm not sure what to expect as sadly his son has had to deal with major health issues and I could see where that would be a major distraction.
K- Jace Christmann will be the kicker and has been solid for two years. He made 75% of his field goals last year and I can live with that. He also has adequate range. We appear to be good here.
P- Corliss Waitman was another huge transfer pick up that us under the radar. He was one of the best punters in country and if we can improve here and win field position more it will help the entire team out in a major way. We need to be really solid in special teams given our disadvantages as a program compared to the SEC blue bloods. Waitman averaged three more yards per punt than our team did. He also had 26 punts inside the 20 as a junior and 19 last year. Tucker Day only had 13 inside the 20.
KO- Scott Goodman was solid last year for us as a true freshman and will likely improve.
KR/PR- There are a lot of options here. Zuber, Malik Dear, Deddrick Thomas, Brian Cole, Kylin Hill. Among others. I kind of wonder if Lee Witherspoon could surprise us this year in the return game? This appears to be completely wide open and I'm not sure what direction we will go in here.
While this team has more unknowns last year and the defense will likely take a step back- I think this team may be better all around than last year's team. The million dollar question is will that show on the field in terms of wins and losses? We begin the year in the Superdome- hopefully we will end it in the Superdome as well.
QB- Some people may say that there is a competition between Stevens and Key but we all know that Stevens is going to be the QB. I think we are very fortunate how this turned out because Stevens knows the offense better than Kelly Bryant and so much of playing QB is understanding the offense. Stevens is simply the most important pick up of the offseason because for us to have success we must improve in the passing game. If we do it will open up the running game more. I know Joe wants a completion percentage of 65% but if Stevens can get to 58% we will be better on offense. If he gets to 65% I think we are in for a special season to be quite frank. The other thing that we need from him is 20+ TD passes and 5-10 INT's along with 500 yards rushing and 10 rushing TD's. Those are numbers similar to what Trace McSorley put up and the passing numbers are markedly better than Fitzgerald's although the rushing yards total is about half. It would be a season similar to Dak's senior year as well statistically speaking. The other thing that I'm hopeful for is that Stevens will make better decision in the passing, option, and RPO games. I think that's where Fitzgerald really bogged down the offense. Even as much as the offense struggled we were still in the top half of the league in 3rd down conversion percentage and red zone scoring percentage. But we were also 6th in the league in both and 14th in the league in 4th down conversion percentage. Not bad on the surface for the first two- but also room to improve if we can move into the top 3-5 in all of those categories we will be much better. Interestingly enough we were first in the SEC in red zone TD conversion percentage. That tells me that there is good potential here for this offense with the right pieces in place. Another issue last year was the lack of explosive plays in the passing game as we were in the bottom half of the SEC in explosive pass plays but in the top half of the SEC in explosive running plays. When you add both the explosive pass and run plays together we were again near the bottom of the SEC. Get the explosive pass plays up some and we will be cooking with gas.
RB- Kylin Hill is an explosive player himself. I think he is going to have a special year similar to JJ Johnson his junior or senior year. We need him to stay healthy and rush for 1000 yards. If the passing game improves it will only help him and make him that much more dangerous. If he improves his blocking to go along with his pass catching skills he will be a complete back. Nick Gibson is solid but I don't think he will get the reps that Aeris got. Kareem Walker and Lee Witherspoon are wild cards. If one of them step up it will make our offense that much better because no one expects that from us at this point.
WR- Isiah Zuber is the second biggest pick up behind Stevens. He needs to be the reliable WR that we can go to in critical situations. If he can be that I think it will help Stephen Guidry and Osirus Mitchell out a lot. It may both take some pressure off of Guidry as well as motivate him to be a better player. Osirus in the spring game still looks extremely raw as well which is concerning. The good news is Zuber has the skill set to play X, Z, and slot so we can potentially move him around to create match ups which was something we really couldn't do last year. Hopefully Stevens will have better rapport with Guidry and Mitchell than Fitzgerald or Key did. It would be nice if Whop and Austin Williams turn the corner because both are going to be more productive than Osirus and Guidry by the time their careers end. I'm very hopeful that Whop has a career arc similar to Fred Ross. Which would mean becoming an impact player by midseason. Osirus just doesn't flash enough on the field to make me believe that he can turn the corner. If he doesn't prove me wrong I hope that Whop improves enough to overtake him.
TE- We're pretty deep here. Farrod Green is a good player who is a glue guy and good leader. Dontae Jones is IMO an even better player that is more athletic and can make big time plays that Farrod hasn't really shown that he can do at this point. Spivey is similar to Jones in that regard as well and could be a surprise. Cumbest is also a solid player as well. With our depth here and the question marks at WR using two TE sets about a third of the time probably would be a pretty decent idea.
OL- One thing about the past two years is because of Hevesy's poor recruiting we've had to play some people out of position. Marcus Johnson has done a great job of correcting that- and I think it will pay dividends this year. Our offensive tackle play was pretty poor at times- and Eiland really struggled badly against the better pass rushers in the SEC. I think Joe was hesitant to move people back to where they fit because we returned so many guys but the attrition from graduation has helped solve that. Daryl Williams is an All-SEC candidate at C. Stewart Reese moving to guard is going to help him out a lot. Dauren Parker and Michael Story are both guards with some experience. Tyre Phillips I thought was our best OT last year and really improved after the Kentucky game. Tommy Champion also improved as the year went along and I think Eiland fits much better at right tackle than left. The fact that there is a competition here is a good thing. If Phillips can protect the passer better than Eiland did it will help immensely.
DL- There is a lot of concern here but I honestly think it won't be as bad as people think. We return Chauncey Rivers, Kobe Jones, Marquiss Spencer, and Fletcher Adams who have all been productive players at DE. Obviously you don't replace a Jeffrey Simmons but if Lee Autry can be the solid space eater he was last year and if one of our young four star DT's like Fabien Lovett and Nathan Pickering play at a respectable level at the other DT spot we should be fine. Probably not number one in the country- but I think top 20 is possible. I think Shoop is going to play call this defense a little bit differently than last year because of what we have. We may see Spencer at DT some in packages similar to how we used Rivers some last year.
LB- The other thing I think we may see more of as far as playcalling is perhaps seeing the LB's blitz and rush the passer more than we did last year since this group is one of the strengths of the defense. This could be one of the best linebacking groups in MSU history. Leo Lewis is a fifth year senior and he has been a solid player for us. I think he will finish his career strong. Erroll Thompson had similar analytical ratings to Devin White of LSU last year who was a first round pick. I could see Thompson really breaking out nationally this year. He reminds me of Barrin Simpson but with NFL measurables. Willie Gay could also declare early as well and is a playmaker. He has a good knack for creating turnovers and is kind of a poor man's Tyran Mathieu type of player.
CB- We're really strong here. Cam Dantzler is yet another candidate to leave for the NFL early and is a legit shutdown corner. Maurice Smitherman is a little undersized but he makes plays and rates very high analytically as well matching what the eye sees. This group along with the linebackers are why I don't think we will have fall off the planet on defense.
S- I think Brian Cole is going to surprise a lot of experts this year. He was outstanding when he was healthy. Jaquarious Landrews surprised me last year and I think he will be a good player for us next year as well. CJ Morgan Walker was also really solid as well and then we'll see Fred Peters in the mix. So, lots of competition here but some good options.
Flex/Hybrid- I'm curious to see where Jerrian Jones fits into the defense? I think he plays as a freshman but where exactly I'm not sure. My guess would be CB. Marcus Murphy is also a really athletic and talented player but I'm not sure what to expect as sadly his son has had to deal with major health issues and I could see where that would be a major distraction.
K- Jace Christmann will be the kicker and has been solid for two years. He made 75% of his field goals last year and I can live with that. He also has adequate range. We appear to be good here.
P- Corliss Waitman was another huge transfer pick up that us under the radar. He was one of the best punters in country and if we can improve here and win field position more it will help the entire team out in a major way. We need to be really solid in special teams given our disadvantages as a program compared to the SEC blue bloods. Waitman averaged three more yards per punt than our team did. He also had 26 punts inside the 20 as a junior and 19 last year. Tucker Day only had 13 inside the 20.
KO- Scott Goodman was solid last year for us as a true freshman and will likely improve.
KR/PR- There are a lot of options here. Zuber, Malik Dear, Deddrick Thomas, Brian Cole, Kylin Hill. Among others. I kind of wonder if Lee Witherspoon could surprise us this year in the return game? This appears to be completely wide open and I'm not sure what direction we will go in here.
While this team has more unknowns last year and the defense will likely take a step back- I think this team may be better all around than last year's team. The million dollar question is will that show on the field in terms of wins and losses? We begin the year in the Superdome- hopefully we will end it in the Superdome as well.