ESPN releases pre-season FPI ranking - Dawgs at 16

[DancingRabbit]

Tennessee seems a little high

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=344&year=2019

[msstate7]

#16 in this metric, and 5th in our division... life in the sec west.

[msstate7]

If you put a lot of stock in this, they have OM at #41 and Memphis at #53. Om is getting 6.5 points week 1... I'm tempted to take the rebs

[MetEdDawg]

If you put a lot of stock in this, they have OM at #41 and Memphis at #53. Om is getting 6.5 points week 1... I'm tempted to take the rebs

Corral is good enough to get that team 7 wins and bad enough to get them 4. His good is pretty good but man his bad is awful.

I wouldn't touch OM on any games this year because of how bipolar his play could be this year.

But I do agree getting 6.5 in Memphis would be a very tempting bet.

[msstate7]

Corral is good enough to get that team 7 wins and bad enough to get them 4. His good is pretty good but man his bad is awful.

I wouldn't touch OM on any games this year because of how bipolar his play could be this year.

But I do agree getting 6.5 in Memphis would be a very tempting bet.

I think the rebs can run wild on Memphis with Phillips and ealy

[BrunswickDawg]

I think the rebs can run wild on Memphis with Phillips and ealy

But Memphis is just as likely to run wild on OM's dumpster fire defense. I really won't be surprised at all if this is a 54-53 type game.

[msstate7]

FPI odds...
Strong favorite weeks 1-4
At auburn 33.1%
At tenn 44.6%
LSU 34.7%
At aTm 34.3%
At ark 78.0%
Bama 22.1%
Om 74.9%

[msstate7]

But Memphis is just as likely to run wild on OM's dumpster fire defense. I really won't be surprised at all if this is a 54-53 type game.

That would make me a winner, right?

[Jack Lambert]

They got us with about the same chance of beating LSU at home as we do of beating A&M on the road.

[Covercorner2]

I?m a believer in the FPI being a good gauge on a team as a whole but not necessarily in individual games. I don?t think it factors in matchups, intangibles, etc.

[R2Dawg]

10 of top 20 in SEC that is strong.

[DownwardDawg]

If you put a lot of stock in this, they have OM at #41 and Memphis at #53. Om is getting 6.5 points week 1... I'm tempted to take the rebs

Memphis is gonna score 50 on ole miss.

[starkvegasdawg]

Memphis is gonna score 50 on ole miss.

Then they'll play the second half.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Then they'll play the second half.

Boom. Shots 17n fired. Love it.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Corral is good enough to get that team 7 wins and bad enough to get them 4. His good is pretty good but man his bad is awful.

I wouldn't touch OM on any games this year because of how bipolar his play could be this year.

But I do agree getting 6.5 in Memphis would be a very tempting bet.

What has Corral done to show you that his good is pretty good? All I've seen him do is strut around like a 14 year old who's mad at his dad

[DancingRabbit]

Speaking of shitbirds

1147976312910274560

[BuckyIsAB****]

Speaking of shitbirds

1147976312910274560

Im 99 percent sure thats fake but hilarious if true

[Johnson85]

Tennessee seems a little high

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=344&year=2019

Does FPI put a lot of emphasis on recruiting rankings? I'm just curious as to what they are looking at to make them think UT, which finished up last season with ass kickings from Mizzou and Vandy to 5-7, is going to be top 15? They beat a struggling Auburn team and then also beat UK. That's two bright spots, but doesn't seem that bright.

[DancingRabbit]

Does FPI put a lot of emphasis on recruiting rankings? I'm just curious as to what they are looking at to make them think UT, which finished up last season with ass kickings from Mizzou and Vandy to 5-7, is going to be top 15? They beat a struggling Auburn team and then also beat UK. That's two bright spots, but doesn't seem that bright.

That's one of the components, especially pre-season. I don't think the exact formula is made public.

Overall it seems to be reasonably accurate, but they have their big misses. Last year, LSU wasn't even in the top 25 in the pre-season ranking. They had AU pretty high, which didn't pan out. I believe Michigan was overrated last pre-season also.


Each team?s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team?s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons? information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/122612/an-inside-look-at-college-fpi

[msstate7]

Does FPI put a lot of emphasis on recruiting rankings? I'm just curious as to what they are looking at to make them think UT, which finished up last season with ass kickings from Mizzou and Vandy to 5-7, is going to be top 15? They beat a struggling Auburn team and then also beat UK. That's two bright spots, but doesn't seem that bright.

If it were mainly recruiting ranking based, you think we'd be 16th?

ETA... that came across as being a smart butt. Sorry, didn't mean it like that

[Pollodawg]

Speaking of Shay Shay, the only memory I have of him is the beating he caught in the ‘16 Egg Bowl. Underwhelming is his middle name, and I doubt there are many OM fans who’d disagree.

[msstate7]

Speaking of Shay Shay, the only memory I have of him is the beating he caught in the ‘16 Egg Bowl. Underwhelming is his middle name, and I doubt there are many OM fans who’d disagree.

He was actually pretty good last year...

ESPN QBr = 81.5 (8th nationally/tied with Trevor Lawrence)

Passer rating = 149.85 (22nd nationally)

[sleepy dawg]

Does FPI put a lot of emphasis on recruiting rankings? I'm just curious as to what they are looking at to make them think UT, which finished up last season with ass kickings from Mizzou and Vandy to 5-7, is going to be top 15? They beat a struggling Auburn team and then also beat UK. That's two bright spots, but doesn't seem that bright.

It is as good of a preseason system as you'll find, but no system can be perfect since there is so much luck in sports and unknowns. Last year it predicted us with 8.4 wins. We ended with 8, but were really close to 9.

[Johnson85]

If it were mainly recruiting ranking based, you think we'd be 16th?

ETA... that came across as being a smart butt. Sorry, didn't mean it like that

No, but we'd be mid 20's by recruiting I guess and I could see us having some defensive stats last year (and offensive stats based on destroying middling teams) that push us higher.

I was just curious what UT would have that would prop them up. Didn't know if they blew it out of the water on some advanced stats that didn't translate into wins for them, or if they were relying on recruiting numbers or what.

[msstate7]

No, but we'd be mid 20's by recruiting I guess and I could see us having some defensive stats last year (and offensive stats based on destroying middling teams) that push us higher.

I was just curious what UT would have that would prop them up. Didn't know if they blew it out of the water on some advanced stats that didn't translate into wins for them, or if they were relying on recruiting numbers or what.

Guarantano rated pretty well on their QBR metric as a sophomore, so expecting progression from him could play into this projection