Football Win Total and Stevens/Zuber

[ShotgunDawg]

Seeing lots of debating and arguing on Twitter about what MSU win total will be and if we'll win at Tennessee, which IMO is the pay off pitch of this season.

That being said, I don't know how anyone could even make a logical guess at our win total right now because we have absolutely ZERO idea what we'll get out of Stevens and Zuber and maybe more importantly how that compares to what we had last year.

Give me the first quarter of the 1st game to see what Stevens looks like at QB and how the ball comes out of his hand.

Is there a more anticipated debut of an MSU player than Stevens? Honestly there really shouldn't be. We've never had a transfer in which so much of the season was dependent on.

[Jack Lambert]

Seeing lots of debating and arguing on Twitter about what MSU win total will be and if we'll win at Tennessee, which IMO is the pay off pitch of this season.

That being said, I don't know how anyone could even make a logical guess at our win total right now because we have absolutely ZERO idea what we'll get out of Stevens and Zuber and maybe more importantly how that compares to what we had last year.

Give me the first quarter of the 1st game to see what Stevens looks like at QB and how the ball comes out of his hand.

Is there a more anticipated debut of an MSU player than Stevens? Honestly there really shouldn't be. We've never had a transfer in which so much of the season was dependent on.

Both of them have played three years and there is plenty of tape on them. We can get a good idea. Our offense is going to be elevated.

[msstate7]

Both of them have played three years and there is plenty of tape on them. We can get a good idea. Our offense is going to be elevated.

Tommy has 41 total passes for his career. That's a really small sample. For reference, key has 50

[ShotgunDawg]

Both of them have played three years and there is plenty of tape on them. We can get a good idea. Our offense is going to be elevated.

No. You and everyone else has ZERO idea

[DancingRabbit]

No. You and everyone else has ZERO idea

Quit being rude and weird. You post a topic and then attack people replying with their opinion.

[Bothrops]

Zuber has had plenty of experience. I'm not worried with him. I think Steven's will hit the ground running because there's a good bit of pressure on him and good things expected out of him. He seems to have good instincts. If not then Key is probably the man. Our offense is definitely elevated, how much...we'll have to wait and see.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

I agree with Shotgun (but in a more civil manner). Steven's experience has been at one school and spread over 3 years. This is the SEC and it's a different mind set. I agree with Bothrops that Stevens's weakness is also his strength as he is a graduate student and more mature which should translate into smarter decision making on the field. Still, there are so many different pieces to this team that are not SEC tested that make it near impossible to guess a win total above a 6 win floor.

[DancingRabbit]

Is Stevens 100% healthy? I've never seen much info on what the injury was, what procedure was done, re-hab, etc.

If he's 100%, then our passing game and overall offense will be elevated. He's been preparing to run Joe's offense for the last 3 years. To some extent, worst case he will be a good game manager.

As far as win totals go, we'll win 6 worst case and 10 best case. Part of that depends on our opponents. Who's gonna be a shit show? I like our schedule.

[Bdawg]

No doubt right now is hard to predict a win total for us. I think our defense will still be good and keep us in most of our games but the unknown at the QB position leaves me in a real predicament( at the moment) in picking wins and losses. Really need to here some positives out of practices this fall and probably a game or two to get a real feel if Stevens is going to elevate this offense. Hopefully year two in the Moorhead's system will also show some positive strides as well. It does make me feel a little better that Stevens was in line to be the starter at Penn State pre injury too. So I'm going to keep my fingers crossed that Stevens can hit the ground running because he already has a feel for the system and as a whole we will take a step forward since this is year two under Moorhead. I will say this, I don't think it's a stretch at all to say Stevens will be a better passer than Fitz. And as far a the TN game, if we can't win that one, we may have a really disappointing season

[Liverpooldawg]

Anything above six wins this year is gravy.

[Bdawg]

Anything above six wins this year is gravy.

Love that positivity!! Stay strong buddy!!

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

No. You and everyone else has ZERO idea

And you should still have zero idea after first quarter and seeing ball come out of his hand to start the season...it should take longer than that to get an idea

[TUSK]

And you should still have zero idea after first quarter and seeing ball come out of his hand to start the season...it should take longer than that to get an idea

Well, if you gauge the centrifugal force of the passing motion and cross reference with the ratio of pivotal inertia with CG, it's quite easy to get an idea...

[KOdawg1]

Give me the first quarter of the 1st game to see what Stevens looks like at QB and how the ball comes out of his hand.


One of Fitz's first passes was an absolute dime against a POS team (Northwestern State, I think).

The ball looked pretty good out of his hand. Not many more did after that.

[Goldendawg]

Tommy has 41 total passes for his career. That's a really small sample. For reference, key has 50

This. And Key has more starts than Stevens. The highlights posted here of Stevens seemed to be mop up duty in blowouts, but many here seem to think he will step into the SEC West and be the next John Bond, but a better passer. He has played three years and never been a starter. Hope my worries are wrong and you are correct.

[Goldendawg]

I agree with Shotgun (but in a more civil manner). Steven's experience has been at one school and spread over 3 years. This is the SEC and it's a different mind set. I agree with Bothrops that Stevens's weakness is also his strength as he is a graduate student and more mature which should translate into smarter decision making on the field. Still, there are so many different pieces to this team that are not SEC tested that make it near impossible to guess a win total above a 6 win floor.

You do realize 6-6 would probably mean 4 OOC wins and 2-6 in the SEC no matter who is QB. That would be a totally disaster of a season. We have much more talent than a 2 win SEC season.

[Goldendawg]

Anything above six wins this year is gravy.

So you are saying only two probable SEC wins with victories over the weak sister OOC games? So in this nightmare, tell me who the 2 SEC wins would be.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

You do realize 6-6 would probably mean 4 OOC wins and 2-6 in the SEC no matter who is QB. That would be a totally disaster of a season. We have much more talent than a 2 win SEC season.

Agreed. I'm saying worst case scenario is 6 wins. As far as SEC wins, if the team is executing at a high level we should grab up to 6 wins for a 10-2 season with Bama & Auburn the lone losses. But since luck has rarely smiled on little ole Miss State then 8-4 is probably the likely finish.

[TUSK]

Agreed. I'm saying worst case scenario is 6 wins.

I'm down with this.... See if you think you agree with this, buddy... (the last column is "win probability rank")

Date Opponent W Prob
31-Aug vs. Louisiana* 2
7-Sep Southern Miss* 3
14-Sep Kansas State* 4
21-Sep Kentucky 6
28-Sep at Auburn 11
12-Oct at Tennessee 8
19-Oct LSU 9
26-Oct at Texas A&M 10
2-Nov at Arkansas 7
16-Nov Alabama 12
23-Nov Abilene Christian* 1
28-Nov Ole Miss 5

[Todd4State]

I think Stevens will manage the offense much better than Fitz and better than Key would have. The sample size may be small but the completion percentage is encouraging especially when you factor in Zuber into the WR corp.

What does that translate into in terms of wins? I'd guess 8-9.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Seeing lots of debating and arguing on Twitter about what MSU win total will be and if we'll win at Tennessee, which IMO is the pay off pitch of this season.

That being said, I don't know how anyone could even make a logical guess at our win total right now because we have absolutely ZERO idea what we'll get out of Stevens and Zuber and maybe more importantly how that compares to what we had last year.

Give me the first quarter of the 1st game to see what Stevens looks like at QB and how the ball comes out of his hand.

Is there a more anticipated debut of an MSU player than Stevens? Honestly there really shouldn't be. We've never had a transfer in which so much of the season was dependent on.

LSU at home is the payoff pitch. Win that one and the season can go from good to great real quick. If we are who we say we are, winning at UT shouldnt be a big deal to us

[ejdallas322]

https://youtu.be/5ylR7fjHwhk

This should help compare what Tommy can bring to State than what Fitz brought.

[Tbonewannabe]

Anything above six wins this year is gravy.

This has been the traditional 6-7 regular season wins. We have won more than 7 regular season games twice Since the 1999 season, both of those were 8 win seasons. One was with Dak and the other just happened to be the only time we have beaten LSU at home since 1999.

That is why you can't get too angry if we don't win more than 6-7. 6 wins is the floor now but getting angry if we don't win more than 7 is as dumb as getting angry that Lemonis's first year he didn't win a National Title which was the 2nd best season in MSU history.

[Tbonewannabe]

I'm down with this.... See if you think you agree with this, buddy... (the last column is "win probability rank")

Date Opponent W Prob
31-Aug vs. Louisiana* 2
7-Sep Southern Miss* 3
14-Sep Kansas State* 4
21-Sep Kentucky 6
28-Sep at Auburn 11
12-Oct at Tennessee 8
19-Oct LSU 9
26-Oct at Texas A&M 10
2-Nov at Arkansas 7
16-Nov Alabama 12
23-Nov Abilene Christian* 1
28-Nov Ole Miss 5

I might flip A&M and Auburn but other than that I agree with this ranking. I think 1-7 should be wins with UT, LSU, AU, and A&M at best toss up games. When those are on the road then the probability goes down.

[BiscuitEater]

Tommy has 41 total passes for his career. That's a really small sample. For reference, key has 50

And, both have been ~50% passers and plus rushers.

[Jack Lambert]

No. You and everyone else has ZERO idea

After all the dumb ass post you have made I pretty sure any thing you say most here will automatically think the opposite. You have been wrong on everything 99% of the time. Our offense if going to be better no matter how bad you want it to be.

[Ari Gold]

Anything above six wins this year is gravy.


Do you like brown or white??

[Jarius]

Stevens has been in this offense for 3 years and nearly beat out a Heisman candidate his first year on campus. He's going to be an upgrade to what we have on this current roster and he's going to be an upgrade over Fitz for the simple fact that Fitz had no clue what he was doing half the time last year. You can't learn a brand new offense in a boot and he didn't get live reps until a month until kickoff last year. This team will win at least as many games as last year's team because the schedule is way easier. The OL is better, the rb position is virtually the same, the wide receiver position is better, and the tight end position is better. The offense is going to be fine. We need 2 players to step up at DT and the defense will be elite again. If they don't step up, we will have to settle for just being really good on defense. 8 wins is the expectation. 7 wins is the floor. 10 wins is the ceiling.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

This has been the traditional 6-7 regular season wins. We have won more than 7 regular season games twice Since the 1999 season, both of those were 8 win seasons. One was with Dak and the other just happened to be the only time we have beaten LSU at home since 1999.

That is why you can't get too angry if we don't win more than 6-7. 6 wins is the floor now but getting angry if we don't win more than 7 is as dumb as getting angry that Lemonis's first year he didn't win a National Title which was the 2nd best season in MSU history.

Fact check: We have won more than 7 regular season games 8 times from 1999 - 2018 and in 2000 we won 7. Not sure where you came up with only 2 seasons. Dak alone won more than 7 twice (2014 & 2015).

[Jack Lambert]

Stevens has been in this offense for 3 years and nearly beat out a Heisman candidate his first year on campus. He's going to be an upgrade to what we have on this current roster and he's going to be an upgrade over Fitz for the simple fact that Fitz had no clue what he was doing half the time last year. You can't learn a brand new offense in a boot and he didn't get live reps until a month until kickoff last year. This team will win at least as many games as last year's team because the schedule is way easier. The OL is better, the rb position is virtually the same, the wide receiver position is better, and the tight end position is better. The offense is going to be fine. We need 2 players to step up at DT and the defense will be elite again. If they don't step up, we will have to settle for just being really good on defense. 8 wins is the expectation. 7 wins is the floor. 10 wins is the ceiling.

Having a proven WR who can get open, hang on to the ball and return kicks alone is going to elevate our offense. Stevens is the gravy. I think he starts but either way we are better off with him on the team then with out. Regardless who the starting QB is we not have a back up who can come in and make a contribution. Having a true freshman and red shit freshman as back up is not good.

[1bigdawg]

I am excited about Stevens upgrading the competition at QB, but I am not writing off KT yet. He is a real competitor and may shine in this situation.

[msstate7]

I am excited about Stevens upgrading the competition at QB, but I am not writing off KT yet. He is a real competitor and may shine in this situation.

The fact he's stuck around tells me key plans on competing. We may have written him off too soon

[yjnkdawg]

I am excited about Stevens upgrading the competition at QB, but I am not writing off KT yet. He is a real competitor and may shine in this situation.


Stevens would have to be almost 100% confident that he could win our starting quarterback position, or he would have never chosen us. He did not transfer here to be a backup quarterback for his last collegiate season of football. I would say unless something goes crazy that he will be our starting quarterback. Don't get me wrong. I like KT. I just think Stevens is a better option for the offense JoeMo wants to run.

[Jarius]

The fact he's stuck around tells me key plans on competing. We may have written him off too soon

He will never play a meaningful snap at Mississippi State unless the starting quarterback gets hurt. joe searching for a grad transfer for 6 months proved that.

[msstate7]

Stevens would have to be almost 100% confident that he could win our starting quarterback position, or he would have never chosen us. He did not transfer here to be a backup quarterback for his last collegiate season of football. I would say unless something goes crazy that he will be our starting quarterback. Don't get me wrong. I like KT. I just think Stevens will start.

I don't think Stevens would've came without being assured he'd start. I have no doubt Stevens will start game 1. What I don't think the guarantee includes is that Stevens will be the only qb playing or start the whole season. If key or Mayden are close to Steven, I think one of them could see 1st half playing time in game 1.

[yjnkdawg]

I don't think Stevens would've came without being assured he'd start. I have no doubt Stevens will start game 1. What I don't think the guarantee includes is that Stevens will be the only qb playing or start the whole season. If key or Mayden are close to Steven, I think one of them could see 1st half playing time in game 1.

We aren't OM and don't guarantee that a quarterback will be the starting quarterback before he ever sets foot on campus.

[msstate7]

Delete

[msstate7]

We aren't OM and don't guarantee that a quarterback will be the starting quarterback before he ever sets foot on campus.

Stevens left penn st bc they wouldn't name him starter. Yet he moves 2000 miles to compete at miss st

[yjnkdawg]

Stevens left penn st bc they wouldn't name him starter. Yet he moves 2000 miles to compete at miss st


I'm not getting into an arguing match with you (which you love arguing), but think whatever you wish on why he transferred here.

[Jarius]

We aren't OM and don't guarantee that a quarterback will be the starting quarterback before he ever sets foot on campus.

He at a minimum asked Joe how he compared to kT and obviously Joe told him he was clearly better than KT but would still have to compete for the job. He didn’t come here to sit on the bench. If KT was about as good as him in Joe’s eyes he would not be here. If you think he was just wanting to come to MSU to try and beat someone out that may or may not be better than him I’ve got some beach front property for you. Read why he left Penn state.

[msstate7]

I'm not getting into an arguing match with you (which you love arguing), but think whatever you wish on why he transferred here.
Just common sense, brah.

[yjnkdawg]

He at a minimum asked Joe how he compared to kT and obviously Joe told him he was clearly better than KT but would still have to compete for the job. He didn’t come here to sit on the bench. If KT was about as good as him in Joe’s eyes he would not be here. If you think he was just wanting to come to MSU to try and beat someone out that may or may not be better than him I’ve got some beach front property for you. Read why he left Penn state.


Since you referenced my post. I was and am in agreement with you. That's pretty close to what I posted earlier. 7 or whoever can negotiate with you on the beach front property if they so desire.

[msstate7]

Since you referenced my post. I was and am in agreement with you. That's pretty close to what I posted earlier. 7 or whoever can negotiate with you on the beach front property if they so desire.

Don't even what this nonsense is supposed to mean

[BuckyIsAB****]

Well, if you gauge the centrifugal force of the passing motion and cross reference with the ratio of pivotal inertia with CG, it's quite easy to get an idea...

You must spread rep around before giving it to TUSK again. Quality content here people

[BuckyIsAB****]

Stevens did a lot more at PSU than play in blowouts. He got on the field in packages with McSorely and Barkley, sometimes on the field with 1 of the 2 or all 3. That is a lot of talent in one backfield so you probably have to be pretty good to even get in between the lines with that group.

[Fader21]

I would love to go to a game at Tennessee but I don't think I could handle that much Rocky Top playing.

[maroonmania]

Stevens has been in this offense for 3 years and nearly beat out a Heisman candidate his first year on campus. He's going to be an upgrade to what we have on this current roster and he's going to be an upgrade over Fitz for the simple fact that Fitz had no clue what he was doing half the time last year. You can't learn a brand new offense in a boot and he didn't get live reps until a month until kickoff last year. This team will win at least as many games as last year's team because the schedule is way easier. The OL is better, the rb position is virtually the same, the wide receiver position is better, and the tight end position is better. The offense is going to be fine. We need 2 players to step up at DT and the defense will be elite again. If they don't step up, we will have to settle for just being really good on defense. 8 wins is the expectation. 7 wins is the floor. 10 wins is the ceiling.

Speaking of learning a new offense in a walking boot, is Stevens healthy now? Will he be full go in August? From my understanding he really didn't participate much in the Penn State spring practices which was one of the primary reasons Franklin wouldn't promise him anything relative to starting in the Fall at PSU.

[gravedigger]

No. You and everyone else has ZERO idea

We have an idea. Just not a clear one.

[Schultzy]

Of course Stevens is the starter; this isn’t jr high tryouts, they have already evaluated who the better player is. You don’t even bring in the guy if he’s not the starter.

[Jarius]

Speaking of learning a new offense in a walking boot, is Stevens healthy now? Will he be full go in August? From my understanding he really didn't participate much in the Penn State spring practices which was one of the primary reasons Franklin wouldn't promise him anything relative to starting in the Fall at PSU.

Stevens is a full go at this point. Zuber too. Zuber had hip surgery I believe.

[MarketingBully]

Tommy has 41 total passes for his career. That's a really small sample. For reference, key has 50

This coming from a guy who says Franks, Mond, and Corral are going to kick ass this year. McSorley barely beat Stevens out and Stevens was the heir apparent to start at Penn State this year until Franklin screwed up that situation. I?ll say this. Between those four QBs, I am willing to bet Stevens has better stats then those other 3.

[MrKotter]

After all the dumb ass post you have made I pretty sure any thing you say most here will automatically think the opposite. You have been wrong on everything 99% of the time. Our offense if going to be better no matter how bad you want it to be.

Don?t let him bother you. He?s a stupid ass with an inferiority complex close to 34?s.

[Really Clark?]

And, both have been ~50% passers and plus rushers.

Stevens is 58.5% and Key is 47% for their careers. How you get they are both about the same?

[msstate7]

This coming from a guy who says Franks, Mond, and Corral are going to kick ass this year. McSorley barely beat Stevens out and Stevens was the heir apparent to start at Penn State this year until Franklin screwed up that situation. I?ll say this. Between those four QBs, I am willing to bet Stevens has better stats then those other 3.

I never said corral was gonna kick *ss. Let's roll with QBR as the stat in a bet between mond, Stevens, and franks. I say Stevens finishes behind mond and franks, and you say he finishes better than both. Loser owes the board $100. If Stevens finished between the other 2, we both owe the board $25

[Tbonewannabe]

I never said corral was gonna kick *ss. Let's roll with QBR as the stat in a bet between mond, Stevens, and franks. I say Stevens finishes behind mond and franks, and you say he finishes better than both. Loser owes the board $100. If Stevens finished between the other 2, we both owe the board $25

I think all will do well in their respective offenses. Franks is like a better version of Chris Relf. He can run well enough to keep the defenses honest and I am sure Mullen will pound into his head to check down. Franks is very talented or he wouldn't have been as highly rated out of high school as he was.

Mond is a great talent and Jimbo does seem to put his QBs in good positions to succeed or at least get some stats.

Stevens is in the offense that he has been in his entire career so there shouldn't be any type of getting up to speed. Adding Zuber was someone we desperately needed. I think adding Cross to the Oline is also a huge get. At the end of the season and all star games, he was possibly the best Oline in the country out of high school. If nothing else that gives you depth and the ability to put guys in their best position like Eiland.

I like that you chose QBR because it evens out more of their stats so if someone is in more of a pass heavy or run heavy offense.

Corral is the one that is most interesting. How will he do in Rich Rod's offense? That offense is closer to a run heavy spread unless it has changed since his days at West Virginia/Michigan. I didn't really watch him at Arizona. I actually think UM hired to great coordinators for the first time in a long time. It will be interesting to see if they are ok running that offense or if the fans turn on him like Michigan did. UM has now gotten used to throwing it all of the time.