Kumar Rocker

[Dawg61]

of his 19 k's vs Duke all 19 were on the breaking ball and 18 of them were balls if the batter doesn't swing. It's a completely unhittable pitch and it's also nowhere close to being a strike ever. Simply put don't swing at the breaking balls and we won't have a problem with Rocker. His fastball sits around 92 mph and isn't anything Paul Bunyan like that a no-hitter with 19 k's would suggest. He threw absolutely filthy breaking ball after breaking ball and Duke just kept swinging at it. I thought Duke was a smart school too.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0gXU7bChPs

[msstate7]

I'm gonna guess that slider is in the same tunnel as the fastball

[BrunswickDawg]

of his 19 k's vs Duke all 19 were on the breaking ball and 18 of them were balls if the batter doesn't swing. It's a completely unhittable pitch and it's also nowhere close to being a strike ever. Simply put don't swing at the breaking balls and we won't have a problem with Rocker. His fastball sits around 92 mph and isn't anything Paul Bunyan like that a no-hitter with 19 k's would suggest. He threw absolutely filthy breaking ball after breaking ball and Duke just kept swinging at it. I thought Duke was a smart school too.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0gXU7bChPs

I think Duke was just in over their heads. They were 15-15 in the ACC, and 30-24 in the regular season - good for 4th in the Coastal Division, 7th overall in ACC play. They probably should not have even made a regional.

[StateDawg44]

That commentator sounds like he is ending all of his sentences with a quesiton mark.

[Big4Dawg]

Him or his pitching coach also said that the slider was just better that night, and not his normal slider.

[smootness]

I'm gonna guess that slider is in the same tunnel as the fastball

Haha I was literally about to say, I'm gonna guess they don't think it's a slider when they start to swing? That's what made it such a devastating pitch.

[drunkernhelldawg]

I like the idea. I'm just not sure that patience at the plate is part of our winning formula.

[Dawg61]

Haha I was literally about to say, I'm gonna guess they don't think it's a slider when they start to swing? That's what made it such a devastating pitch.

Sure it's a whole lot easier said than done but if they don't swing on 18 of those 19 pitches they would have been called balls. Duke would of been better off if their hitters didn't take a bat to the plate vs Rocker. Not including foul balls Rocker's pitch count would of been around 153 pitches in the 9th inning if Duke doesn't go to the plate holding bats.

[deadheaddawg]

I have only watched Vandy play twice this year, because I can't listen to that whistling fool. I watched them play us in the SECT and I watched them play yesterday afternoon. So I have not really seen Rocker. I feel like he is a really good pitcher, but his reputation went through the roof because of one brilliant game. He went from being really good to un-hittable over night. At least that is the way it feels.

Maybe its just because I haven't watched them, but I feel like our kids can hit him. I think him throwing a no-hitter last game probably even plays into our favor. Our kids will not be scared, so I dont think his no hitter effects us mentally. Hopefully he is a little sore and is letting all the praise get him too confident

[Jack Lambert]

There will be some pressure on him after his last outing. I think State gets to him early and gets our pitcher a lead.

[msstate7]

He's only at 9.18 k9 for season, which is good but not great. What's impressive to me looking at his numbers is 2.02 bb9... really impressive for a freshman. Hopefully last start was just him having his best stuff and not turning a corner

[DawgFromOxford]

Asking us to not be aggressive at the plate? Good luck.

[Dawg61]

Asking us to not be aggressive at the plate? Good luck.

Don't swing at balls doesn't mean don't be aggressive. You can be aggressive as hell on fastballs and strikes all day long while simultaneously not swinging at balls in the dirt.

[RocketDawg]

Kumar Rocker ... good baseball name.

[shoeless joe]

Fellows is a better pitcher. I’d rather face rocker coming off that game than any other time. Hopefully we bring him and the announcers that will be gobblin his knob all game back down to earth

[ShotgunDawg]

Don't swing at balls doesn't mean don't be aggressive. You can be aggressive as hell on fastballs and strikes all day long while simultaneously not swinging at balls in the dirt.

The problem is that his slider looks like his fastball out of his hand

[Lord McBuckethead]

The problem is that his slider looks like his fastball out of his hand

It did that night anyway.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Hold up, those highlights show the guy beating out a double play ball. I understand the FC on that play, but that means someone reached without an error. That ruins the no hitter for me.

[Dawg61]

Hold up, those highlights show the guy beating out a double play ball. I understand the FC on that play, but that means someone reached without an error. That ruins the no hitter for me.

Idk what you're saying here, a perfect game means nobody on base not a no-hitter.

[confucius say]

That video actually makes me feel better about tomorrow night. I didn't see any of the no no. Figured he was overpowering everybody. Two pitch guy. Doesn't change eye level much. We should be ok.

Also, if he buries 30 sliders in the dirt on a real field instead of that turf, going to be a few wild pitches

[smootness]

Sure it's a whole lot easier said than done but if they don't swing on 18 of those 19 pitches they would have been called balls. Duke would of been better off if their hitters didn't take a bat to the plate vs Rocker. Not including foul balls Rocker's pitch count would of been around 153 pitches in the 9th inning if Duke doesn't go to the plate holding bats.

I mean, I'm guessing he just pipes them right down the middle in that case and throws 81 pitches. ;)

I know what you're saying. But yes, it is far easier said than done. When you say 'simply don't swing at the breaking balls and we won't have a problem,' there's an issue...because if they could identify them as breaking balls in time, no one would be swinging at them.

[smootness]

Don't swing at balls doesn't mean don't be aggressive. You can be aggressive as hell on fastballs and strikes all day long while simultaneously not swinging at balls in the dirt.

If you are a machine, yes.

[drunkernhelldawg]

Our guys will take their cuts. That's who we are. Hope it works because I think it's all we have.

[Dawg61]

I mean, I'm guessing he just pipes them right down the middle in that case and throws 81 pitches.

Tim Lincecum used to be absolutely dominant until every hitter learned to stop swinging at everything because anything that wasn't a fastball was always a ball. Force Rocker to throw fastballs and you do that by not swinging at everything he throws and eventually he is forced to throw more fastballs because that's the only pitch he can throw consistently for a strike or he'll walk a dozen guys.

[dawgs]

I don't feel like anyone simplifying the issue to "don't swing at balls!" has ever faced a half decent breaking pitch.

[drunkernhelldawg]

But that is damned interesting about eighteen strike outs on balls. We might want to look at a few extra no fooling. Especially with a one strike count.

[dawgs]

Tim Lincecum used to be absolutely dominant until every hitter learned to stop swinging at everything because anything that wasn't a fastball was always a ball. Force Rocker to throw fastballs and you do that by not swinging at everything he throws and eventually he is forced to throw more fastballs because that's the only pitch he can throw consistently for a strike or he'll walk a dozen guys.

Lincecum lost velocity, making his breaking pitches less effective because hitters didn't need to worry about catching up with his fastball, so they could sit back and wait longer on the breaking pitches.

[Dawg61]

Lincecum lost velocity, making his breaking pitches less effective because hitters didn't need to worry about catching up with his fastball, so they could sit back and wait longer on the breaking pitches.

He did lose velocity. He went from 96 mph to 92 mph. Know who else throws 92 mph? Rocker. Don't swing at balls and btw I guarantee you I have a whole lot more baseball experience than you do champ.

[MetEdDawg]

I don't feel like anyone simplifying the issue to "don't swing at balls!" has ever faced a half decent breaking pitch.

This right here. I will continue to say it. Lots of folks that comment on this board on baseball have never played or coached it above city rec ball.

If it was so easy to lay off they would. It's not. That's why they don't. Catcher was the one that walked in the dugout and said after the first inning that there was something different about his slider. You think of the tens of thousands of pitches catchers see over their life and when they say that, it means something special is happening. Sometimes there just isn't a damn thing you can do about special and that's what happened Rocker's last outing.

But we do have better hitters and a better hitting coach. That's going to help us out. But folks simplifying it haven't ever played the game at a decent level. You haven't played a decent level of baseball until you've seen something go numbers to knees or gut to ground.

[Dawg61]

This right here. I will continue to say it. Lots of folks that comment on this board on baseball have never played or coached it above city rec ball.

If it was so easy to lay off they would. It's not. That's why they don't. Catcher was the one that walked in the dugout and said after the first inning that there was something different about his slider. You think of the tens of thousands of pitches catchers see over their life and when they say that, it means something special is happening. Sometimes there just isn't a damn thing you can do about special and that's what happened Rocker's last outing.

But we do have better hitters and a better hitting coach. That's going to help us out. But folks simplifying it haven't ever played the game at a decent level. You haven't played a decent level of baseball until you've seen something go numbers to knees or gut to ground.

Lol I'm a better baseball player better athlete better pitcher better hitter and a better teacher than you Met and always will be. Hail State

[MetEdDawg]

Lol I'm a better baseball player better athlete better pitcher better hitter and a better teacher than you Met and always will be. Hail State

Holler

[Cooterpoot]

He?s no better than the top pitchers we?ve faced this year. I?m more concerned with their hitting, than pitching.

[TUSK]

Lol I'm a better baseball player better athlete better pitcher better hitter and a better teacher than you Met and always will be. Hail State

Oh snap. "Baseball Smack"!!!!!

Sheet just got real, yo!

https://media1.tenor.com/images/20a72486c02677e1c107409e6cebdd76/tenor.gif?itemid=8389455

[smootness]

Tim Lincecum used to be absolutely dominant until every hitter learned to stop swinging at everything because anything that wasn't a fastball was always a ball. Force Rocker to throw fastballs and you do that by not swinging at everything he throws and eventually he is forced to throw more fastballs because that's the only pitch he can throw consistently for a strike or he'll walk a dozen guys.

First, even taking your explanation at face value, you're trying to claim it's simple for our hitters to do something it took 6 years for MLB hitters to do with Lincecum. Second, that is an incredibly simplified reason for why Lincecum fell off. He was a tiny guy who was never going to have longevity because he sold out in his delivery to maximize his velocity and stuff. Once his body started to age and wear, his stuff declined. He didn't throw as hard and there wasn't as much difference between it and his breaking stuff.

Sure, it is a simple concept. Don't swing at the breaking balls, mash the fastballs. But that is actually a pretty huge part of what hitting pitching at this level and beyond is. If it was simple to do in practice, everybody would hit .400 with 50 bombs.

[dawgs]

Sure, it is a simple concept. Don't swing at the breaking balls, mash the fastballs. But that is actually a pretty huge part of what hitting pitching at this level and beyond is. If it was simple to do in practice, everybody would hit .400 with 50 bombs.

Lol it's pretty telling that even an example of being ridiculously good means you fail ~60% of the time.

[Dawg61]

He can't throw the breaking ball for a strike. You force more fastballs once you understand everything breaking ball is a ball and Rocker sees you're not swinging at everything he throws.

[dawgs]

He did lose velocity. He went from 96 mph to 92 mph. Know who else throws 92 mph? Rocker. Don't swing at balls and btw I guarantee you I have a whole lot more baseball experience than you do champ.


Rocker is much bigger than licecum, so his release point may be (likely is) closer to the plate than lincecum's, so that makes up some difference in mph. Throw in that it's not about pure velocity, but also about arm angles, how well the ball is hidden prior to release, difference in speed between fastball, change ups, and breaking balls, etc., and it's not as simple as "rocker throws 92, so just sit back". Also, according to fangraphs, lincecum average fastball sat 92-92.5 during his best years, then a ~2 mph drop to ~90.5 corresponded with an era spike over 5.00. he wasn't blowing people away with 96 and "only" dropped to 92, he was blowing people away at 92 and went to shit at 90.

[dawgs]

He can't throw the breaking ball for a strike. You force more fastballs once you understand everything breaking ball is a ball and Rocker sees you're not swinging at everything he throws.


It's almost like the best sliders don't look like breaking balls.

[Dawg61]

It's almost like the best sliders don't look like breaking balls.

Doesn't matter when he can't throw it for a strike. You force him to throw strikes which means you force him to throw fastballs. You don't have to read it at that point. Swing at strikes they'll always be fastballs.

[smootness]

Doesn't matter when he can't throw it for a strike. You force him to throw strikes which means you force him to throw fastballs. You don't have to read it at that point. Swing at strikes they'll always be fastballs.

He wasn't trying to throw it for a strike. Why? Because it looked like a fastball down the middle out of his hand, which makes the batter want to swing. By the time they recognize it's not a fastball down the middle, it's too late. That's why it was so effective. You make it seem like he was wild and the Duke hitters were letting him off the hook. Everything he was throwing, including location, was by design.

The hitters thought they were swinging at a strike. No one sees a pitch that starts in the middle of the zone, identifies it as a breaking ball, and still figures, 'Eh, I think it'll still be in the zone,' and swings. If they knew it was a breaking ball, they would know it wouldn't be in the zone and wouldn't swing. Saying, 'Don't swing at balls out of the zone' is the same as saying 'Don't swing at that slider.' They are one and the same.

[Johnson85]

Doesn't matter when he can't throw it for a strike. You force him to throw strikes which means you force him to throw fastballs. You don't have to read it at that point. Swing at strikes they'll always be fastballs.

You are either like Larry Bird trying to explain shooting or you are an idiot. Assuming that you weren't a pro baseball player, that would mean...

[Dawg61]

Rocker is much bigger than licecum, so his release point may be (likely is) closer to the plate than lincecum's, so that makes up some difference in mph. Throw in that it's not about pure velocity, but also about arm angles, how well the ball is hidden prior to release, difference in speed between fastball, change ups, and breaking balls, etc., and it's not as simple as "rocker throws 92, so just sit back". Also, according to fangraphs, lincecum average fastball sat 92-92.5 during his best years, then a ~2 mph drop to ~90.5 corresponded with an era spike over 5.00. he wasn't blowing people away with 96 and "only" dropped to 92, he was blowing people away at 92 and went to shit at 90.

Lincecum also had a very large stride making his release point closer to the plate and he was definitely touching 96 mph when he was winning CY Young's despite what his "average" fastball was calculated at. Aroldis Chapman touches 103 that doesn't make that his average but he's got it when he needs it. 5.00 era Timmy wasn't able to hit 96 anymore like he used to be able to do at times not on average.

[smootness]

Why are we even talking about Lincecum's velocity?

If laying off a good slider that dives out of the strike zone were simple, the average ERA in the majors would be over 5. Most hitters will tell you it's the toughest pitch to face.

[Dawg61]

He wasn't trying to throw it for a strike. Why?

This is exactly my point. Make him throw strikes. Duke wasn't forcing him to throw strikes. That means don't be aggressive early in counts early in the game. He has no choice then but to either start throwing more fastballs (which we can hit) or walk a dozen batters. I do not think he can throw the breaking ball for strikes and if he can it won't be nearly as effective a pitch and we'll be able to hit it as well as his fastball thus effectively eliminating your point that nobody can tell the difference between the two pitches out the hand because you're no longer swinging at breaking balls in the dirt you're swinging at fastballs or breaking balls he's leaving in the zone because he has to. Work the counts.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

of his 19 k's vs Duke all 19 were on the breaking ball and 18 of them were balls if the batter doesn't swing. It's a completely unhittable pitch and it's also nowhere close to being a strike ever. Simply put don't swing at the breaking balls and we won't have a problem with Rocker. His fastball sits around 92 mph and isn't anything Paul Bunyan like that a no-hitter with 19 k's would suggest. He threw absolutely filthy breaking ball after breaking ball and Duke just kept swinging at it. I thought Duke was a smart school too.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0gXU7bChPs

Sounds simple enough. Someone please give the link to this post to the players and coaches...**

[preachermatt83]

Of all of vandys starters, rockur scares me the least. I?d be willing to bet he has a terrible night tmr night.

[BB30]

This is exactly my point. Make him throw strikes. Duke wasn't forcing him to throw strikes. That means don't be aggressive early in counts early in the game. He has no choice then but to either start throwing more fastballs (which we can hit) or walk a dozen batters. I do not think he can throw the breaking ball for strikes and if he can it won't be nearly as effective a pitch and we'll be able to hit it as well as his fastball thus effectively eliminating your point that nobody can tell the difference between the two pitches out the hand because you're no longer swinging at breaking balls in the dirt you're swinging at fastballs or breaking balls he's leaving in the zone because he has to. Work the counts.

So your saying take some pitches and lay off early count fastballs? Did you watch his start or just the highlight clip posted? He was throwing a lot of fastballs early in counts getting ahead and putting them away with the slider. It's not like he was going up there and throwing 3 sliders to every hitter. He also showed a tick above average change up as well in that outing, so no, he wasn't just a two pitch guy.

The hitters were also reading fb out of his hand. An 84-86 mph slider is pretty dumb. That slider stayed on the exact same plane as his fb very late. There is a reason the kid was and is so highly thought of and has a bright future ahead of him. His stuff is +. Now the odds of him being that "on" again are pretty slim but to act like the kid had some loopy average BB is short sighted.

[ZedFedder]

I could see us getting only one run, I could see us getting 10. Toss up to me.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

I like the idea. I'm just not sure that patience at the plate is part of our winning formula.

Yea I think we've proved we're going to go up there hacking come hell or high water.

[Liverpooldawg]

Has anyone brought this thread to the Yankees' attention? I mean we have an obvious baseball genius who has come up with a sure fire tactic: Don't swing at balls. Surely the Yanks would be interested.

[smootness]

This is exactly my point. Make him throw strikes. Duke wasn't forcing him to throw strikes. That means don't be aggressive early in counts early in the game. He has no choice then but to either start throwing more fastballs (which we can hit) or walk a dozen batters. I do not think he can throw the breaking ball for strikes and if he can it won't be nearly as effective a pitch and we'll be able to hit it as well as his fastball thus effectively eliminating your point that nobody can tell the difference between the two pitches out the hand because you're no longer swinging at breaking balls in the dirt you're swinging at fastballs or breaking balls he's leaving in the zone because he has to. Work the counts.

Two points and then we're done because this is dragging on:

1) For the last time, you're making something that basically every baseball player who has ever played has struggled with sound extremely simple.

2) He was throwing his slider for strikes as well. In the 9th inning alone, he was pumping sliders that fell right into the middle of the zone on the 1st 2 pitches, then burying the last pitch in the dirt. Why were they not swinging at the strikes? Because, once again, they looked like fastballs out of his hand. You don't swing at a pitch that looks like a fastball out of the zone. Once you realize it's going to break into the zone, it's too late. What he was throwing was an elite slider to go along with a darn good fastball. If he has that combo working again (I doubt he does), it is going to be very, very tough for us.

[TUSK]

Has anyone brought this thread to the Yankees' attention? I mean we have an obvious baseball genius who has come up with a sure fire tactic: Don't swing at balls. Surely the Yanks would be interested.

This thread has got nuthin' on some of his other "gems"....

[turkish]

The next Billy Beane, ladies and gents!!

[shoeless joe]

Two choices here:

1) rocker figured something out in his last start and will shove against us

2) most likely scenario...he just had one of those notes and is much less likely to repeat anything near that performance

As I said earlier he’s not near the best pitcher they have. We better worry more about keeping them off the board.

[MedDawg]

Lol I'm a better baseball player better athlete better pitcher better hitter and a better teacher than you Met and always will be. Hail State

Instead of meeting at South Farm to fight, y’all need to meet at Dudy Noble and play.

[Dawg61]

Sorry didn't realize you'd watched his other 108 pitches the video I posted didn't show.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Well, a staple of analysis is sampling- not in the baseball realm, just in general

Maybe Duke is not a great sample of batters to compare to MSU hitters

Dukies hit for 51-points less average than MSU
They also walk slightly less
They struck out 171 times more often than MSU
They have 3 players with +60 Ks, we have 1
They have 2 players with +50 Ks, we have 1
Just looking at a few games, they many games with 12 or more Ks

Plus vs Kumar & Vandy, they were way behind pretty quick, they may just started swinging even more wildly than usual

[RougeDawg]

This right here. I will continue to say it. Lots of folks that comment on this board on baseball have never played or coached it above city rec ball.

If it was so easy to lay off they would. It's not. That's why they don't. Catcher was the one that walked in the dugout and said after the first inning that there was something different about his slider. You think of the tens of thousands of pitches catchers see over their life and when they say that, it means something special is happening. Sometimes there just isn't a damn thing you can do about special and that's what happened Rocker's last outing.

But we do have better hitters and a better hitting coach. That's going to help us out. But folks simplifying it haven't ever played the game at a decent level. You haven't played a decent level of baseball until you've seen something go numbers to knees or gut to ground.

Actually it?s very easy to see the breaking ball vs a fastball based on two things, spin and hand angle at release. If you see tight red seems or odd (non fastball spin) it?s breaking ball. If a guy only has two pitches you should be able to tell FB or OS when it leaves his hand. Sit fastball until he forces you to offer at breaking ball.

The easiest way to tell fastball/curveball is find the pitchers release point before you ever go up to bat. Then you either look for all baseball or skin. Meaning a fastball is showing all ball at release point. A curve and slider you sill see skin as the hand is turned. Changeup is the most difficult to see, although the odd spin usually gives it away out of the hand. Pretty simple.

If Kumar only has two pitches we should eliminate the breaking ball until we get two strikes. Then battle. Make him throw the breaking pitch for a strike. Only offer at fastballs until 2 strikes. Winning combination.

[MetEdDawg]

Actually it?s very easy to see the breaking ball vs a fastball based on two things, spin and hand angle at release. If you see tight red seems or odd (non fastball spin) it?s breaking ball. If a guy only has two pitches you should be able to tell FB or OS when it leaves his hand. Sit fastball until he forces you to offer at breaking ball.

The easiest way to tell fastball/curveball is find the pitchers release point before you ever go up to bat. Then you either look for all baseball or skin. Meaning a fastball is showing all ball at release point. A curve and slider you sill see skin as the hand is turned. Changeup is the most difficult to see, although the odd spin usually gives it away out of the hand. Pretty simple.

If Kumar only has two pitches we should eliminate the breaking ball until we get two strikes. Then battle. Make him throw the breaking pitch for a strike. Only offer at fastballs until 2 strikes. Winning combination.

So if it's so easy to pick that up why has he been so dominant as a freshman? Seams and odd looks are great in theory, but there are so many different spins and release points and arm angles now that pitchers have decided advantages now. Hitters are basically going up and other that obvious situational pitches, they are looking for one pitch one and one spot.

It's not that easy to pick up spin like that on a slider either. That's why it's the most devastating pitch in baseball. Pitching changed drastically since the slider became such a prevalent pitch. Picking up the spin is hard and yes you can sit FB. But the whole point is that a slider deceives like a FB.

And by the way he can throw 3 or 4 pitches. That's why he has 97 strikeouts and only 18 walks in over 80 innings pitched. As a freshman.

[Really Clark?]

Anybody who thinks picking up a slider by thinking and reading during the AB, has never faced a top pitcher. Some guys you can read ?color? or spin after release but that?s all you can do with curves. Sliders are even harder.

You can anticipate release point with some guys but not all pitchers are that way at all. Rocker was throwing his slider and fastball on identical plans and release points. Incredible hard to pick up. A few top hitters say they pick up fingers but that?s during delivery from scouting pitchers. If you try to read fingers at or after delivery you can?t catch up to a fast ball or hard sliders. The brain and eyes and what controls movement don?t work how many of you are thinking and are over simplifying the ability to hit the ball.

Below is a photo overlay of a pitcher throwing 4 different pitches and they will all have different speeds and spins but you can?t really discern what the pitch is by reading arm angle or fingers. I?m also attaching a Fangraphs article about it and many of the top hitters think. It is extremely varied in their responses. So no, it?s not simple or close to easy past average HS pitching.

https://cdn-blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Cq0PRt4UIAABzka.jpg

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-can-hitters-actually-see-out-of-a-pitchers-hand/

It?s a really good read for those who are interested in what high level players are actually doing, seeing, and most importantly NOT thinking about when in the box.

ETA. Good video and breakdown of Garrett Cole. Obviously his stuff is elite but gives you a good idea of what’s happening and when


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wZCxhvj5500

[shoeless joe]

Guys...it’s simple. Not chasing breaking balls is simple. Choosing to only swing at one pitch and only if that pitch is a strike is simple. Hitting is simple guys...which is obvious by looking at the fact that the best hitters in the world have success against these pitches way more than they have failure.


On a serious note, all these gurus have a great strategy but putting that strategy in action against the actual pitcher is not so easy. I’m sure our plan will be to make him throw the fastball and even to see the ball up in the zone to attack. We shall see how it goes.

[smootness]

Sorry didn't realize you'd watched his other 108 pitches the video I posted didn't show.

Huh? I watched a decent amount of that game. Just because you only watched the strikeout pitches doesn't mean that's all he was throwing.

[smootness]

Actually it?s very easy to see the breaking ball vs a fastball based on two things, spin and hand angle at release. If you see tight red seems or odd (non fastball spin) it?s breaking ball. If a guy only has two pitches you should be able to tell FB or OS when it leaves his hand. Sit fastball until he forces you to offer at breaking ball.

The easiest way to tell fastball/curveball is find the pitchers release point before you ever go up to bat. Then you either look for all baseball or skin. Meaning a fastball is showing all ball at release point. A curve and slider you sill see skin as the hand is turned. Changeup is the most difficult to see, although the odd spin usually gives it away out of the hand. Pretty simple.

If Kumar only has two pitches we should eliminate the breaking ball until we get two strikes. Then battle. Make him throw the breaking pitch for a strike. Only offer at fastballs until 2 strikes. Winning combination.

LOL on this whole thing.

And again, he was throwing his slider for strikes. He was pumping that thing in there to get ahead quickly and then burying it with 2 strikes. In those AB, Duke was employing that exact strategy only to get behind immediately and have to battle.

If he has that slider working again, good luck.

[paco]

Rocker was fantastic in his last outing. He threw 130 pitches. I've seen many times that when a pitchers arm is 'stretched' that he is far less effective his next time out. I don't think he'll see the fifth inning because of ineffectiveness.

[Activated Alpha]

Or he could be lights out regardless of his extended pitching performance and shut us down. I could see that happening more than I can see us score 10 off Vandy

[StateDawg44]

IMO, he may come out and throw gas but there is no way he is going to come close to repeating his last outing.

[Liverpooldawg]

IMO, he may come out and throw gas but there is no way he is going to come close to repeating his last outing.

He doesn't have to to be VERY, very good. That last one was one for the ages.

[dawgs]

LOL on this whole thing.

And again, he was throwing his slider for strikes. He was pumping that thing in there to get ahead quickly and then burying it with 2 strikes. In those AB, Duke was employing that exact strategy only to get behind immediately and have to battle.

If he has that slider working again, good luck.

But you can tell which sliders are gonna hang in the zone for strikes and which ones are in the dirt by watching the ones in the dirt hit the dirt and the ones in the strike zone pass through the strike zone. Just hit the ones in the strike zone.

[smootness]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2WvUMSIvew

Anybody who thinks you have time to see that (and by the way, the guy seems to be throwing at about 70% effort) and do all this...

1. See what the spin/hand/angle looks like
2. Decide what pitch it is
3. Determine where the pitch looks like it's headed
4. Figure out where the pitch will end up, based on 2 and 3
5. Decide to swing or not

...is insane.

These guys just load, see the ball, and try to hit the ball. It's almost entirely on instinct. If a pitcher has a good fastball and an elite slider and the two look very similar out of his hand, you'll see something similar to what you say in Rocker's last start. Against just about any team.

[Really Clark?]

But you can tell which sliders are gonna hang in the zone for strikes and which ones are in the dirt by watching the ones in the dirt hit the dirt and the ones in the strike zone pass through the strike zone. Just hit the ones in the strike zone.

No you can?t always tell that. Nearly all of his sliders started on the same plane and on the same plane as his fastball. Watch the overlay on this tweet GIF. Fastball and slider that was caught right above the ground. Both half way to the batter was right above the belt.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1139913374760886274

For fun here is Ethan Small overlay of his fastball and change up. Arm angles are the same. Release points are the same. Anybody in this thread saying these are simple reads have no context of what their eyes can truly pick up, brain interpret and make motion adjustments from 30 feet at those speeds. Extremely difficult to do.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1140415901860270080

Elite overlay of Max

https://mobile.twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1139895713133944832

[Dawg61]

Lol y'all acting like Rocker throws 135 mph and that our hitters haven't had to read fastball/slider vs every single other pitcher they've faced ever.

[Really Clark?]

Lol y'all acting like Rocker throws 135 mph and that our hitters haven't had to read fastball/slider vs every single other pitcher they've faced ever.

Naw...just dispelling the idea that it’s easy and when the slider is on like his was that night and on plane with his fastball and breaking at 2 different levels, it’s no where close to as easy as some make it sound. At every level, great hitters look stupid on that pitch at times. It’s not easy. I don’t think he will have it going the same as against Duke and we have the hitters to take advantage of his fastball. But if he is as deceptive as his last outing, we could also struggle with that slider

[smootness]

Lol y'all acting like Rocker throws 135 mph and that our hitters haven't had to read fastball/slider vs every single other pitcher they've faced ever.

Literally no one has suggested anything close to that. The better the pitcher and stuff, the harder it is. If Rocker has his stuff working like he did his last start, that's as good as it gets. Which is why it's extremely difficult. You're making it seem simple.

If we make it seem like he throws 135, you make it seem like he's a 10 year old who can't locate consistently.

It's not as easy as 'LOL Duke'

[Dawg61]

Literally no one has suggested anything close to that. The better the pitcher and stuff, the harder it is. If Rocker has his stuff working like he did his last start, that's as good as it gets. Which is why it's extremely difficult. You're making it seem simple.

If we make it seem like he throws 135, you make it seem like he's a 10 year old who can't locate consistently.

It's not as easy as 'LOL Duke'

We won't hit the sliders in the dirt just like Duke struck out on 19 different sliders 18 of which were in the dirt so how do you get him to stop throwing sliders in the dirt smoot? Answer that and you'll have discovered my entire point of this thread.

[Johnson85]

No you can?t always tell that. Nearly all of his sliders started on the same plane and on the same plane as his fastball. Watch the overlay on this tweet GIF. Fastball and slider that was caught right above the ground. Both half way to the batter was right above the belt.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1139913374760886274

For fun here is Ethan Small overlay of his fastball and change up. Arm angles are the same. Release points are the same. Anybody in this thread saying these are simple reads have no context of what their eyes can truly pick up, brain interpret and make motion adjustments from 30 feet at those speeds. Extremely difficult to do.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1140415901860270080

Elite overlay of Max

https://mobile.twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1139895713133944832

SOmethings funky about that last one though. Shows the fastball actually rising. Not sure if it's my eyes playing tricks b/c of the overlay or if the overlay has something screwy.

[smootness]

We won't hit the sliders in the dirt just like Duke struck out on 19 different sliders 18 of which were in the dirt so how do you get him to stop throwing sliders in the dirt smoot? Answer that and you'll have discovered my entire point of this thread.

You see the pitch, determine it's a slider, see that the path of the slider will take it out of the zone, and you don't swing at it.

Simple.

[smootness]

SOmethings funky about that last one though. Shows the fastball actually rising. Not sure if it's my eyes playing tricks b/c of the overlay or if the overlay has something screwy.

It's the angle. It's a two-seamer but it's not rising. It looks like his hand is even with the bottom of the zone when he releases that, but his hand is obviously way higher than the bottom of the zone in reality.

[Dawg61]

You see the pitch, determine it's a slider, see that the path of the slider will take it out of the zone, and you don't swing at it.

Simple.

https://media.giphy.com/media/10Le4bHgYBDkeQ/giphy.gif

[smootness]

And my point has always been that it is a simple concept - everyone can easily understand the logic of it - and extremely hard, if not impossible at times, in practice.

[Really Clark?]

SOmethings funky about that last one though. Shows the fastball actually rising. Not sure if it's my eyes playing tricks b/c of the overlay or if the overlay has something screwy.

It’s because the fastball spin rate stays on plane so it tricks your eyes, especially with an overlay with a down spin pitch and gravity. Here is another overlay

https://mobile.twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1019381006128861184

[The Federalist Engineer]

Rocker's ERA is 3.50 (4.03 in the SEC); All batters are hitting .242 (.260 in the SEC); and Just shut down the 7th best team in the ACC

Plum's ERA is 3.67 (3.68 in the SEC), all batters are hitting .206 (.200 in the SEC), and Just shut down the 4th best team in the Nation

[dawgs]

No you can?t always tell that. Nearly all of his sliders started on the same plane and on the same plane as his fastball. Watch the overlay on this tweet GIF. Fastball and slider that was caught right above the ground. Both half way to the batter was right above the belt.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1139913374760886274

For fun here is Ethan Small overlay of his fastball and change up. Arm angles are the same. Release points are the same. Anybody in this thread saying these are simple reads have no context of what their eyes can truly pick up, brain interpret and make motion adjustments from 30 feet at those speeds. Extremely difficult to do.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1140415901860270080

Elite overlay of Max

https://mobile.twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1139895713133944832

Turn on your sarcasm detector. Or read through the thread at all my other posts.

[Johnson85]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2WvUMSIvew

Anybody who thinks you have time to see that (and by the way, the guy seems to be throwing at about 70% effort) and do all this...

1. See what the spin/hand/angle looks like
2. Decide what pitch it is
3. Determine where the pitch looks like it's headed
4. Figure out where the pitch will end up, based on 2 and 3
5. Decide to swing or not

...is insane.

These guys just load, see the ball, and try to hit the ball. It's almost entirely on instinct. If a pitcher has a good fastball and an elite slider and the two look very similar out of his hand, you'll see something similar to what you say in Rocker's last start. Against just about any team.

Can't remember who it was, but somebody argued that it's not instinct but pattern recognition. Basis for the argument was that MLB players can't hit a good fastpitch softball pitcher (as in, can't even get close on most pitches, despite the ball being bigger and the reaction time not really being any different). At that level and with the reaction time and what we think we know about how quickly the brain operates, they are not thinking anything. They see the ball come out of the pitcher's hand and based on how ever many subtle cues from the release point, nuances in the arm slot, apparent direction and speed, etc., they swing where they think the ball is going to be based on where it has ended up in the past from that "pattern". Not sure I really buy all of that explanation, but I do buy that elite level hitters are processing a lot of information that they don't realize they are processing and wouldn't be able to explain.

[Really Clark?]

Can't remember who it was, but somebody argued that it's not instinct but pattern recognition. Basis for the argument was that MLB players can't hit a good fastpitch softball pitcher (as in, can't even get close on most pitches, despite the ball being bigger and the reaction time not really being any different). At that level and with the reaction time and what we think we know about how quickly the brain operates, they are not thinking anything. They see the ball come out of the pitcher's hand and based on how ever many subtle cues from the release point, nuances in the arm slot, apparent direction and speed, etc., they swing where they think the ball is going to be based on where it has ended up in the past from that "pattern". Not sure I really buy all of that explanation, but I do buy that elite level hitters are processing a lot of information that they don't realize they are processing and wouldn't be able to explain.

Yeah we’ve had this brought up before. And I have argued that is a major part of what allows elite athletes to react at a high level. It’s about repetitive pattern recognition and creating pathways in the brain to interpret things fast because the “lanes” have been built making it faster to interpret what you are seeing. Even the best baseball players reaction time based on normal skills to that of an average person would have, it’s not that much faster if any faster. This has been study extensively and normal human reaction time is not extremely faster in athletes (although some are on the high end with other normal humans). Along with vision recognition, what part of the eyes actually pick up the ball and determine movement and how the brain and which part of the brain is utilized to activate the body movement. They have seen so many pitches and spins over the years it’s almost a precognitive reaction (hence many NOT wanting to think at the plate and just let the the body take over). But when seeing a fast under hand pitch, the mind cannot interpret what is happening because there is no pattern built in the brain. Thus a great hitter looks foolish and very late. They are back to their normal reaction time like all other humans. Give them enough swings though and they can hit a Elite softball pitcher as well as an MLB pitcher. When you have the alignment of the vision, interpretation recognition, and brain switching the body into the correct sequence with great physical tools...that’s when you get peak performance. Extremely hard to accomplish though.

[smootness]

Can't remember who it was, but somebody argued that it's not instinct but pattern recognition. Basis for the argument was that MLB players can't hit a good fastpitch softball pitcher (as in, can't even get close on most pitches, despite the ball being bigger and the reaction time not really being any different). At that level and with the reaction time and what we think we know about how quickly the brain operates, they are not thinking anything. They see the ball come out of the pitcher's hand and based on how ever many subtle cues from the release point, nuances in the arm slot, apparent direction and speed, etc., they swing where they think the ball is going to be based on where it has ended up in the past from that "pattern". Not sure I really buy all of that explanation, but I do buy that elite level hitters are processing a lot of information that they don't realize they are processing and wouldn't be able to explain.

Yeah, that makes sense. When I say instinct, I don't mean something innate, I just mean that over time they develop an instinct that allows them a far better chance of hitting it than, say, I do. Obviously their natural talent plays a part, too. So what I meant is essentially what you're saying there.