Wild thought

[Dawgology]

Should we start Ginn Sunday?

Just a thought that popped in my head. He had one of his best games of the season against Auburn during the regular season. He's well rested and...honestly...we might want to save Small for game 2 of the winners bracket which will probably be against Vandy.

[BiscuitEater]

Small .. Plumlee .. Ginn. Gives State the best chance to utilize Small.

[Cloak]

Should we start Ginn Sunday?

Just a thought that popped in my head. He had one of his best games of the season against Auburn during the regular season. He's well rested and...honestly...we might want to save Small for game 2 of the winners bracket which will probably be against Vandy.

We have to win game 1. Ginn* is arguably the 3rd choice between Small and Plum, but Auburn will be the easiest team we play. I like throwing Ginn game 1.

[MadDawg]

We have to win game 1. Small is arguably the 3rd choice between Small and Plum, but Auburn will be the easiest team we play. I like throwing Ginn game 1.

.

[yjnkdawg]

Lemonis has said that Small will definitely start against Auburn Sunday night. So unless some unforeseen circumstances occur, Small should be on the mound Sunday night. I agree with this move , and Lemonis is planning ahead on what he thinks is the best strategy and gives us the best opportunity to win the whole thing.

[yjnkdawg]

Small .. Plumlee .. Ginn. Gives State the best chance to utilize Small.


Yep!

[HoopsDawg]

It's a moot point, but I think starting Plumlee Game 1 is the right play.

[4suredog]

I think we go with Ginn day 2. I think Plumlee is pitching better but IF we stay in the winners bracket, I think Plumlee can come back on shorter rest (Thursday- Wednesday) if there was a game 3 where as Ginn would throw Tuesday and then again Tuesday. I am not sure how much that one day matters, but its kind of clear that Ginn needs more time between starts than a normal pitcher....

[3rdGen]

The answer is yes.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Coach already said "Small starts game-1"

What would be great is if we can score 15-to-20 runs again and not have to use Leibelt, Cole, or White in game-1

Plus, Small in game-1 gives us the best shot of Small in game-1 of the Championship series

[R2Dawg]

Good question. Yes everyone knows its Small and he is a no brainer always good choice but beating Vandy probably twice is what we gotta do. As long as Small can pitch once against Vandy then pitch him Aub. Then Small once in title series and we have given ourselves the best chance at NC. Small is the man and Plumlee is hot.

Ginn inconsistency plus he has been off is a little wildcard. Plumlee is on. We pitched Brandon Smith in SECT first game and he beat LSU. Smith may get a start somewhere in here unless we sweep which I doubt.

[Bdawg]

I think you do whatever you can to get your stud on the mound the most. If you think you can get 3 starts out of Small, throw Him first. Game one is too important. If you lose game 1 without Small, who do you throw next? If you throw Small game 2 after a loss. He may never face Vandy anyway. I will say this, it will be an advantage to see who wins the first game if you can wait that late to decide. Lastly, I would start Plum over Ginn right now with the way he is pitching. Ginn's last few outings have been shaky. Like I said, game 1 is important.

[maroonmania]

Lemonis has said that Small will definitely start against Auburn Sunday night. So unless some unforeseen circumstances occur, Small should be on the mound Sunday night. I agree with this move , and Lemonis is planning ahead on what he thinks is the best strategy and gives us the best opportunity to win the whole thing.

I agree as well but its a shame that we will end up having to use Small on what is on paper the weakest team in our 4 team bracket.

[Jarius]

It's a moot point, but I think starting Plumlee Game 1 is the right play.

No, pitching your ace as many times as possible is the right play. The guy we are facing against Auburn has a sub 3 era. We aren’t playing Grambling. Everyone in this tournament is as hot as they can possibly get. We will need Small to pitch multiple times to win the whole thing. You have to look past game 2.

[smootness]

After looking at the whole bracket, here's what I would do, with all of the possibilities:

Game 1 (Sunday): Small - W
Game 2 (Tuesday): Ginn - W
Game 3 (Friday): Small - W
Finals, G1 (Monday): Plumlee
Finals, G2 (Tuesday): Ginn
Finals, G3 (Wednesday): Small

Game 1 (Sunday): Small - W
Game 2 (Tuesday): Ginn - W
Game 3 (Friday): Small - L
Game 4 (Saturday): Plumlee - W
Finals, G1 (Monday): Ginn
Finals, G2 (Tuesday): Smith/Wholestaff
Finals, G3 (Wednesday): Small/Plumlee

Game 1 (Sunday): Small - W
Game 2 (Tuesday): Ginn - L
Game 3 (Thursday): Smith - W
Game 4 (Friday): Small - W
Game 5 (Saturday): Plumlee - W
Finals, G1 (Monday): Ginn
Finals, G2 (Tuesday): Smith/Wholestaff
Finals, G3 (Wednesday): Small/Plumlee

Those last games/dates would be the same whether we won the 1st and lost the 2nd, or lost the 1st and won the 2nd. The main issue I have with my own plan is that Plumlee doesn't pitch a ton. But he could potentially come back on Tuesday in the Finals and throw a few innings if needed or be available in a deciding game 3 on Wednesday. The main thing I love is that it gets Small 3 potential starts, even if we win all our games, and it allows Ginn plenty of time to rest between starts. I would be fine switching Ginn and Plumlee, but I feel like it is more likely Plumlee would be available on short rest in the Finals than Ginn.

[Dawgology]

After looking at the whole bracket, here's what I would do, with all of the possibilities:

Game 1 (Sunday): Small - W
Game 2 (Tuesday): Ginn - W
Game 3 (Friday): Small - W
Finals, G1 (Monday): Plumlee
Finals, G2 (Tuesday): Ginn
Finals, G3 (Wednesday): Small

Game 1 (Sunday): Small - W
Game 2 (Tuesday): Ginn - W
Game 3 (Friday): Small - L
Game 4 (Saturday): Plumlee - W
Finals, G1 (Monday): Ginn
Finals, G2 (Tuesday): Smith/Wholestaff
Finals, G3 (Wednesday): Small/Plumlee

Game 1 (Sunday): Small - W
Game 2 (Tuesday): Ginn - L
Game 3 (Thursday): Smith - W
Game 4 (Friday): Small - W
Game 5 (Saturday): Plumlee - W
Finals, G1 (Monday): Ginn
Finals, G2 (Tuesday): Smith/Wholestaff
Finals, G3 (Wednesday): Small/Plumlee

Those last games/dates would be the same whether we won the 1st and lost the 2nd, or lost the 1st and won the 2nd. The main issue I have with my own plan is that Plumlee doesn't pitch a ton. But he could potentially come back on Tuesday in the Finals and throw a few innings if needed or be available in a deciding game 3 on Wednesday. The main thing I love is that it gets Small 3 potential starts, even if we win all our games, and it allows Ginn plenty of time to rest between starts. I would be fine switching Ginn and Plumlee, but I feel like it is more likely Plumlee would be available on short rest in the Finals than Ginn.

My thoughts are you want to play to stay in the winners bracket. Ginn has the best chance against our weakest opponent (auburn) and he had a great outing against them in the regular season, Game 2 throw Small against Vandy, game 3 throw Plumlee against probably Vandy. Done and on to the Championship. That gives Small 5 days of rest before Game 1 of the champ series.

[TALL DAWG]

Should we start Ginn Sunday?

Just a thought that popped in my head. He had one of his best games of the season against Auburn during the regular season. He's well rested and...honestly...we might want to save Small for game 2 of the winners bracket which will probably be against Vandy.

Not just no but HAIL no!
The quicker u pitch ur ace the quicker u can rotate him back through for a 2nd start so long as we win of course.
And...this ain?t Grambling we are playing in game 1.

[Dawg61]

Lemonis has said that Small will definitely start against Auburn Sunday night.

There's an opportunity here for Lemons to really throw a curveball at Auburn by announcing all week it's the lefty Small taking the hill and then last second he starts the righty Ginn on them. Do it Lemons!!

https://media.giphy.com/media/i2HUujTiYx1du/giphy.gif

[Todd4State]

I like Small starting game one because it allows us to maximize using our best pitcher. I think I would go with Plumlee in game two and then Ginn beyond that if we play a third game.

[Coach34]

Nobody wins the NC after losing Game 1. It is imperative that we win the 1st game. You have to pitch Small. To me- its much more difficult to manage in Games 2 and 3. Louisville could easily beat Vandy is Game 1- that will be a war. Avoiding the loser's bracket is the key to Omaha. It's what killed us in 85 when we lost to Texas when Geno got hit with the line-drive. Drained our pitching.

Take Game 1 and let's figure out the next step. I go Plums in Game 2 because he is a veteran and has pitched well the last 6 weeks. Ginn is Game 3.

[Homedawg]

I like Small starting game one because it allows us to maximize using our best pitcher. I think I would go with Plumlee in game two and then Ginn beyond that if we play a third game.

Agree.

[Homedawg]

Nobody wins the NC after losing Game 1. It is imperative that we win the 1st game. You have to pitch Small. To me- its much more difficult to manage in Games 2 and 3. Louisville could easily beat Vandy is Game 1- that will be a war. Avoiding the loser's bracket is the key to Omaha. It's what killed us in 85 when we lost to Texas when Geno got hit with the line-drive. Drained our pitching.

Take Game 1 and let's figure out the next step. I go Plums in Game 2 because he is a veteran and has pitched well the last 6 weeks. Ginn is Game 3.

Yea. Can't be undefeated after two games if you lose game 1. Small for sure.

[Quaoarsking]

Nobody wins the NC after losing Game 1. It is imperative that we win the 1st game. You have to pitch Small. To me- its much more difficult to manage in Games 2 and 3. Louisville could easily beat Vandy is Game 1- that will be a war. Avoiding the loser's bracket is the key to Omaha. It's what killed us in 85 when we lost to Texas when Geno got hit with the line-drive. Drained our pitching.

Take Game 1 and let's figure out the next step. I go Plums in Game 2 because he is a veteran and has pitched well the last 6 weeks. Ginn is Game 3.

Technically wrong, but who can blame you? 2018 was a long, long time ago, and it's not like we played against that team who did it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NCAA_Division_I_Baseball_Tournament#Bracket

[Dawg2003]

Small because you must win game 1. You can't take any chances by overthinking this. Also, that gives Small the most chances to pitch.

[klong-dog]

Small because you must win game 1. You can't take any chances by overthinking this. Also, that gives Small the most chances to pitch.

This. The quicker Small pitches the quicker he will be ready to go again. Plus, game 1 is an absolute must have. Go with your best. Yeah, Auburn may not be as strong as the other two but they are there for a reason. Been playing pretty damn good ball.

[Homedawg]

Technically wrong, but who can blame you? 2018 was a long, long time ago, and it's not like we played against that team who did it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NCAA_Division_I_Baseball_Tournament#Bracket

Ok he said nobody. But as a rule, he's right. Got to stay in winners bracket.

[Todd4State]

Technically wrong, but who can blame you? 2018 was a long, long time ago, and it's not like we played against that team who did it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NCAA_Division_I_Baseball_Tournament#Bracket

They were kind of lucky though. We had issues at catcher and they took advantage of it. Not to mention they had an ace pitcher back because of his legal issues.

[Todd4State]

Nobody wins the NC after losing Game 1. It is imperative that we win the 1st game. You have to pitch Small. To me- its much more difficult to manage in Games 2 and 3. Louisville could easily beat Vandy is Game 1- that will be a war. Avoiding the loser's bracket is the key to Omaha. It's what killed us in 85 when we lost to Texas when Geno got hit with the line-drive. Drained our pitching.

Take Game 1 and let's figure out the next step. I go Plums in Game 2 because he is a veteran and has pitched well the last 6 weeks. Ginn is Game 3.

Winning game one and game two are imperative. That puts you in a situation where you have two games to win one- and by pitching Small you can go back to him in a winner take all game. It's also safer with Ginn's health being a question mark.

[Todd4State]

This. The quicker Small pitches the quicker he will be ready to go again. Plus, game 1 is an absolute must have. Go with your best. Yeah, Auburn may not be as strong as the other two but they are there for a reason. Been playing pretty damn good ball.

Yep. There are no SWAC champs at this point where you can hold an ace back.

[preachermatt83]

Nobody wins the NC after losing Game 1. It is imperative that we win the 1st game. You have to pitch Small. To me- its much more difficult to manage in Games 2 and 3. Louisville could easily beat Vandy is Game 1- that will be a war. Avoiding the loser's bracket is the key to Omaha. It's what killed us in 85 when we lost to Texas when Geno got hit with the line-drive. Drained our pitching.

Take Game 1 and let's figure out the next step. I go Plums in Game 2 because he is a veteran and has pitched well the last 6 weeks. Ginn is Game 3.

Exactly. I don?t know why everyone just assumes Vandy will win. I actiallly think Louisville wins that game.

[preachermatt83]

This. The quicker Small pitches the quicker he will be ready to go again. Plus, game 1 is an absolute must have. Go with your best. Yeah, Auburn may not be as strong as the other two but they are there for a reason. Been playing pretty damn good ball.
Yup. I am amazed at how everyone just thinks we are gonna just blow right by one of the only 8 teams left standing.

[Jarius]

The more I think on it the more I want Ginn to pitch in Game 2. He is really rested and he has the best stuff on staff. I mean he did just win freshman national pitcher of the year. I don't know why but I still trust him more than Plumlee, even though I probably should not. I don't think either for game 2 would be the wrong choice, but I hope it's Ginn in game 2.

[smootness]

My thoughts are you want to play to stay in the winners bracket.

Even if that's your thought, it makes sense to go Small game 1 because you can go back to him game 3.

[smootness]

The idea that nobody ever comes out of the loser's bracket is ridiculous. And losing game 1 is the exact same as losing game 2 in terms of how many games you play and when.

[GreenheadDawg]

Need to win game 1. Small gives us the best chance. Throw Small.

[Coach34]

Technically wrong, but who can blame you? 2018 was a long, long time ago, and it's not like we played against that team who did it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NCAA_Division_I_Baseball_Tournament#Bracket

2 teams in the last 20 years have done it. Who wants 10% odds?

[smootness]

2 teams in the last 20 years have done it. Who wants 10% odds?

Actually 3 teams in the last 20 years (and also 3 in the last 13) have done it - OSU last year, SC in 2010, OSU in 2006. 23% odds aren't quite as bad.

And you can't really look at it like that. The last 3 teams to make the CS at 3-0 all lost the CS; and both teams did it in 2013, so one had to win. Based on that, you could argue it's better to lose a game before the CS but obviously no one will make that case.

There's no doubt that losing one of the first 2 games puts you in a tough spot. And it doesn't matter which one you lose - winning Game 1 and losing Game 2 is the same as losing Game 1 and winning Game 2 in terms of when you play and how many games you have to play. And that is certainly borne out over time: 16 of the last 20 champions and 29 of the 40 title series participants in that span have won their first 2 games in Omaha. That still leaves 4 champions and 7 other title series participants who lost one of the first 2.

So of course it's best to win your first 2 games. But it's still possible to lose one of those first 2 and get it done. Which is why I think the best approach is to go with something that both sets you up best to win those first 2 but also sets you up well to make it through the loser's bracket if needed. And I think that is to go Small game 1, Ginn (though Plumlee is fine as well) game 2 and then bring Small back on Friday no matter what happens. And I think if you lose one of the first 2, the best route is to go Ginn/Plumlee on Tuesday and then Smith/Wholestaff on Thursday.

[HoopsDawg]

I like Small starting game one because it allows us to maximize using our best pitcher. I think I would go with Plumlee in game two and then Ginn beyond that if we play a third game.

I find it hard to believe we will use Small 3 times. He has a bright future and that's not this coaching staff's m.o.

[Dawgology]

I find it hard to believe we will use Small 3 times. He has a bright future and that's not this coaching staff's m.o.

He will throw once in the first round and once in the finals (when/if we make it). He COULD be forced into service if a game 13 is required but then he is burnt for the finals.

Would you rather Small pitch against Auburn or Vandy because that will be your choices I believe. Interestingly enough, Ginn had a GREAT outing against Auburn in the regular season holding them to 2 runs (the lowest total of that series). Small, additionally, had a great game against them but his relief let him down in that 5-6 loss. I'm just not sold on Ginn being able to handle the Vandy batters and this big stage for the first time. I really hope I'm pleasantly suprised though.

[smootness]

I find it hard to believe we will use Small 3 times. He has a bright future and that's not this coaching staff's m.o.

No, but this is different. And you can do it without hurting his future. He could pitch 3 times and still do it on 4 full days rest each time, which is what they get in the pros.

Granted, he probably couldn't throw 100 pitches in his 2nd or 3rd start, but I don't see any reason he couldn't give us 4-5 innings in each, which would be huge.