DeviousDawg
06-04-2019, 02:53 PM
I'm not gonna lie, if you asked me in mid February how I felt about the 2019 football season, I probably would've told you I just hope we could keep our bowl streak going. The way the 2018 football season ended put a bad taste in my mouth, and I'm sure everyone else can agree. Then after signing day, it felt like we missed on a huge opportunity to grab momentum back, and sign one of those kind of classes that gives you the potential to compete for championships 3-4 years down the road. We had two obvious immediate needs in DT and WR that we were hoping would be addressed with JUCO signees. It just had the feel of a program that blew a shot at a 10 win season with an outside shot at a playoff appearance, and then blows a chance to sign the best class in program history because of a historically talented pool of Mississippi high school recruits. There is no denying it, it had the look of a program on the decline. Then spring ball rolls around, and it's obvious our defense is going to be good again if we can have a few interior D-lineman step up next year. However, spring ball also proved that KT is not ready to be the signal caller in JoMo's offense. The spring game was just hard to watch, for multiple reasons. All in all, when Spring Training was over, there was a feeling of complete unexcitement and uninterest that hasn't been felt in Starkville for the better part of a decade.
Fast forward to today and now the 2019 team has a certain buzz around it, new found interest and an opportunity for a special season. No, a couple transfers can't make a 5 win team a 10 win team, but they may be worth another win or two, especially when they are QB1 and his #1 target. I feel like a combination of things in the above paragraph made us think that the team we had for 2019(prior to transfers) was worse than it actually was, that bad taste in our mouth made everything else taste worse than it actually does. Our schedule is one that gives us an opportunity, and JoMo brought in some guys that will give us a better chance to take that opportunity.
Let's do an exercise... Forget last year ever happened, and only think about these things:
JoMo's offense has been elite everywhere he has been, when he has had the guys he needed to execute the scheme.
State was 4-2 against the SEC west last year, only losing on the road to LSU and Alabama, and only gave up an average of 21.5 points per game in those games, on the road, yes, We lost 3 1st rounders from the D but we still have a ton of talent.
State has an absolute stud at RB, the type guy that can take over a game, something we haven't had in a long time. He has the ability to make big game changing plays against any D in college football. Not to mention the fact that Defenses must respect him, which will open up the passing lanes just a little more.
State's back 7 will be one of the best in the country and we will have great defensive ends, the passing defense will be just as good or better than last year's, so we will be able to load the box comfortably to help stop the running game and help cover up our one weakness, the interior D-line. We are bringing in the Louisville DT transfer, and he will be immediately eligible, hopefully he can contribute, or some of the redshirt and/or true freshman are ready to contribute in the interior D-line. I feel we will have a few guys step up, and this hole will need be as big of a problem we thought it would be.
This is year 2 now for JoMo's system, everyone will be more comfortable and you will start to see players just playing, rather than thinking. This is something many people don't mention but it is a big deal. This is also year 2 for Shoop's system, and the first time in a while that we return the same offensive and defensive schemes from the previous year. This matters.
State get's a big time punter grad transfer, and this really is a big deal, how many times did a weak punt follow 3 and out next year? That equation leads to the opposing offense starting in our territory, and sometimes already in field goal position. Better punter + better offense = worse average starting field position for opponents. This is another reason that I believe that the 2019 scoring defense will not be much worse than 2018's, and points is all that matters. The total defense(yardage against) will be noticeably worse than last year, but I think the scoring D will shock some people, top 20 in the country easily imo.
State get's a QB with 4 years in the JoMo offense, he's an athlete than can run, and also hit the deep ball with consistency. He's gonna be really good here and I think he will operate JoMo's offense how it is supposed to be ran. Yes, a Kelly Bryant may be more talented, but he also would have to learn a completely new offense, Stevens freaking athleticism and knowledge of the offense makes him just about the best grad transfer QB we could've asked for, the perfect storm.
State get's an actual threat at WR with grad transfer Isiah Zuber. All you have to do is watch the first few minutes of his highlights at KSU to realize that he is better than any Receiver we have had in a while. Crisp routes, strong hands, agility and quickness needed to get open against man coverage, ability to go up and get the ball, understands coverages and can run the deep ball. This is so huge. Zuber and Stevens have turned next season into one of disinterest, to one of intriguing potential.
Stephen Guidry will be a year older, and a year wiser. Another offseason, spring, summer and pre season under his belt will do wonders for him, both mentally and physically. He will have a better understanding of the offense and I look for him to really have a breakout year. The addition of Zuber just takes some pressure off of him, and will make things easier for both Zuber and Guidry. This duo could be the best we have had in a while. If Stevens and Kylin Hill have the kind of year I think they will, this offense could not only be much better than last year, but also be one of the top 5 offenses in the SEC, and if that's the case, watch out.
Let's look at the schedule, the 2 bye weeks break it into 3 stretches, so lets look at it that way:
1st stretch:
8/31 - vs ULL (Superdome)
9/07 - vs Southern Miss
9/14 - vs Kansas State
9/21 - vs Kentucky
9/28 - @ Auburn
I love the way the first stretch sets up, we open in the Superdome against a team we should cruise against in ULL, easy win and then we head back to Starkville for a 3 game home stretch, with each game progressively presenting more of a challenge. Easy win vs USM, then we get Kansas State, who we should shut down defensively, and get to test our offense for the first time after 2 easy games of polishing and creating chemistry. We cruise through Kansas State. Then we finish up the home stretch in a revenge game against a Kentucky team that will be a shell of what they were last year. I think this is the game where we really see the JoMo offense click for the first time, and we absolutely embarrass Kentucky, and create a confidence and swagger about the team as we start to show what we could be this year. Then we close out the 1st stretch with our first real road game @ Auburn. We will have an off week following this game, so we will go all out. Auburn will have a freshman QB out there, and we get them early in the season, too early for the freshman QB to have really gotten comfortable in Malzahn's offense. We will be 4-0, confident, and clicking on all cylinders. I'm not saying we will win this game, but we damn sure can. Jump on them quick, put pressure on the QB and force turnovers, and we could get out of Jordan Hare with a fairly easy win. Go home, rest up during the Bye week, and continue to polish the offense while getting ready for what will be a tough, but manageable 2nd stretch of the season.
Worst Case- 3-2
Best Case- 5-0
Most probable- 4-1
2nd stretch:
10/05 - BYE
10/12 - @ Tennessee
10/19 - vs LSU
10/26 - @ TAMU
11/02 - @ Arkansas
This 4 game SEC stretch includes 3 road games, however, the 1 game at home will be against the best of the 4 teams. Schedule wise, this works out perfectly. We start at Tennessee, if all has gone well to this point, the offense will be confident and working, and the D will be what we expect to be, strong. We will not be intimidated by UT, and will almost certainly be the favorite on paper. I like this matchup because we should be able to score on their D, and our D should be able to stop their offense, great matchup, but it is on the road. This is similar to the Auburn game in that we need a good start, but we don't HAVE to have it because our offense will be able to score on their D. As long as we don't have mental lapses on D, giving up big plays, and don't turn the ball over multiple times on offense, we win this one. Then we get LSU at home, and Davis Wade will be 17in rocking. Shoop showed that he knows how to completely shut down their offense, and they will be breaking in a new QB as well, if we can slow their run game, and have some big plays on offense, we can win this game without any luck. If you are conceding this one you don't have anything in your pants, we have played them really well the last 5 years or so, and we are not scared, and we get them at home. This would be a huge win, but a loss doesn't end the season. Then we go to College Station and face a TAMU team that we have beaten 3 times in a row, and 4 out of 5. It's gonna be a tough one, but we will not be intimidated. Just like the LSU game, I'm not saying we will win this game, but we damn sure can. Then we finish the 2nd stretch out on the road at Fayetville against an Arkansas team that will still be at the beginning stages of a rebuild. We have a bye week following this game so we will not be looking ahead to anything. If we just stay focused and don't beat ourselves, it should be another easy win against UPIG. Then we head home and rest up during the 2nd bye week, and get ready for the final 3 game stretch, which are all at home.
Worst Case- 1-3
Best Case- 4-0
Most probable- 2-2 (but I'd put the o/u for wins at 2.5... 3-1 is more than possible)
3rd Stretch:
11/09 - BYE
11/16 - vs Alabama
11/23 - vs Abilene Christian
11/28 - vs Ole Miss
The final stretch, and just like the 1st and the 2nd, is perfectly scheduled. We get the bye week to rest up after a physically grueling 2nd stretch, and also prepare to take the Giant that is Alabama and Nick Saban. Last time we had them at home, we had them beat and let it slip away, this team could be just as good as that 2017 team. If Tua is injured, we could really give them a battle, if not, still an outside chance. Shoop found the formula to shut them down last year, and we get them at home this year. If our offense isn't just improved, but actually dangerous, who knows what could happen here. By no means am I expecting a win, let's get that straight, but we are due, and anything could happen. Then we get Abilene Christian at home for homecoming, which will be a glorified scrimmage and by all intents and purposes, a third by week, which is great because the next week is a short week as we get Ole Miss at home on Thanksgiving to end the season. We will thump Ole Miss like a drum, embarrass them and never take the foot off the gas. I'm thinking an easy 20+ point win, they just don't match up well against us, and talent wise they are just gonna be bad.
Worst Case- 2-1
Best Case- 3-0
Most Probable- 2-1
Putting it all together:
Worst Case- (6-6)
Best Case- (12-0)
Most Probable- (8-4), but I'm setting the O/U at 8.5 with (9-3) and a NY6 bowl being possible.
Like I said, this season is setting up to be very interesting. Best schedule we have had, maybe ever. I love the way the schedule breaks up, and the home and away matchups work out perfectly to set up the perfect storm. The potential is there for a big year, maybe even huge year. One thing is certain, this year will tell the tale on JoMo, but whatever does happen, he has given himself and our team the opportunity for a potentially wild ride of a season.
Fast forward to today and now the 2019 team has a certain buzz around it, new found interest and an opportunity for a special season. No, a couple transfers can't make a 5 win team a 10 win team, but they may be worth another win or two, especially when they are QB1 and his #1 target. I feel like a combination of things in the above paragraph made us think that the team we had for 2019(prior to transfers) was worse than it actually was, that bad taste in our mouth made everything else taste worse than it actually does. Our schedule is one that gives us an opportunity, and JoMo brought in some guys that will give us a better chance to take that opportunity.
Let's do an exercise... Forget last year ever happened, and only think about these things:
JoMo's offense has been elite everywhere he has been, when he has had the guys he needed to execute the scheme.
State was 4-2 against the SEC west last year, only losing on the road to LSU and Alabama, and only gave up an average of 21.5 points per game in those games, on the road, yes, We lost 3 1st rounders from the D but we still have a ton of talent.
State has an absolute stud at RB, the type guy that can take over a game, something we haven't had in a long time. He has the ability to make big game changing plays against any D in college football. Not to mention the fact that Defenses must respect him, which will open up the passing lanes just a little more.
State's back 7 will be one of the best in the country and we will have great defensive ends, the passing defense will be just as good or better than last year's, so we will be able to load the box comfortably to help stop the running game and help cover up our one weakness, the interior D-line. We are bringing in the Louisville DT transfer, and he will be immediately eligible, hopefully he can contribute, or some of the redshirt and/or true freshman are ready to contribute in the interior D-line. I feel we will have a few guys step up, and this hole will need be as big of a problem we thought it would be.
This is year 2 now for JoMo's system, everyone will be more comfortable and you will start to see players just playing, rather than thinking. This is something many people don't mention but it is a big deal. This is also year 2 for Shoop's system, and the first time in a while that we return the same offensive and defensive schemes from the previous year. This matters.
State get's a big time punter grad transfer, and this really is a big deal, how many times did a weak punt follow 3 and out next year? That equation leads to the opposing offense starting in our territory, and sometimes already in field goal position. Better punter + better offense = worse average starting field position for opponents. This is another reason that I believe that the 2019 scoring defense will not be much worse than 2018's, and points is all that matters. The total defense(yardage against) will be noticeably worse than last year, but I think the scoring D will shock some people, top 20 in the country easily imo.
State get's a QB with 4 years in the JoMo offense, he's an athlete than can run, and also hit the deep ball with consistency. He's gonna be really good here and I think he will operate JoMo's offense how it is supposed to be ran. Yes, a Kelly Bryant may be more talented, but he also would have to learn a completely new offense, Stevens freaking athleticism and knowledge of the offense makes him just about the best grad transfer QB we could've asked for, the perfect storm.
State get's an actual threat at WR with grad transfer Isiah Zuber. All you have to do is watch the first few minutes of his highlights at KSU to realize that he is better than any Receiver we have had in a while. Crisp routes, strong hands, agility and quickness needed to get open against man coverage, ability to go up and get the ball, understands coverages and can run the deep ball. This is so huge. Zuber and Stevens have turned next season into one of disinterest, to one of intriguing potential.
Stephen Guidry will be a year older, and a year wiser. Another offseason, spring, summer and pre season under his belt will do wonders for him, both mentally and physically. He will have a better understanding of the offense and I look for him to really have a breakout year. The addition of Zuber just takes some pressure off of him, and will make things easier for both Zuber and Guidry. This duo could be the best we have had in a while. If Stevens and Kylin Hill have the kind of year I think they will, this offense could not only be much better than last year, but also be one of the top 5 offenses in the SEC, and if that's the case, watch out.
Let's look at the schedule, the 2 bye weeks break it into 3 stretches, so lets look at it that way:
1st stretch:
8/31 - vs ULL (Superdome)
9/07 - vs Southern Miss
9/14 - vs Kansas State
9/21 - vs Kentucky
9/28 - @ Auburn
I love the way the first stretch sets up, we open in the Superdome against a team we should cruise against in ULL, easy win and then we head back to Starkville for a 3 game home stretch, with each game progressively presenting more of a challenge. Easy win vs USM, then we get Kansas State, who we should shut down defensively, and get to test our offense for the first time after 2 easy games of polishing and creating chemistry. We cruise through Kansas State. Then we finish up the home stretch in a revenge game against a Kentucky team that will be a shell of what they were last year. I think this is the game where we really see the JoMo offense click for the first time, and we absolutely embarrass Kentucky, and create a confidence and swagger about the team as we start to show what we could be this year. Then we close out the 1st stretch with our first real road game @ Auburn. We will have an off week following this game, so we will go all out. Auburn will have a freshman QB out there, and we get them early in the season, too early for the freshman QB to have really gotten comfortable in Malzahn's offense. We will be 4-0, confident, and clicking on all cylinders. I'm not saying we will win this game, but we damn sure can. Jump on them quick, put pressure on the QB and force turnovers, and we could get out of Jordan Hare with a fairly easy win. Go home, rest up during the Bye week, and continue to polish the offense while getting ready for what will be a tough, but manageable 2nd stretch of the season.
Worst Case- 3-2
Best Case- 5-0
Most probable- 4-1
2nd stretch:
10/05 - BYE
10/12 - @ Tennessee
10/19 - vs LSU
10/26 - @ TAMU
11/02 - @ Arkansas
This 4 game SEC stretch includes 3 road games, however, the 1 game at home will be against the best of the 4 teams. Schedule wise, this works out perfectly. We start at Tennessee, if all has gone well to this point, the offense will be confident and working, and the D will be what we expect to be, strong. We will not be intimidated by UT, and will almost certainly be the favorite on paper. I like this matchup because we should be able to score on their D, and our D should be able to stop their offense, great matchup, but it is on the road. This is similar to the Auburn game in that we need a good start, but we don't HAVE to have it because our offense will be able to score on their D. As long as we don't have mental lapses on D, giving up big plays, and don't turn the ball over multiple times on offense, we win this one. Then we get LSU at home, and Davis Wade will be 17in rocking. Shoop showed that he knows how to completely shut down their offense, and they will be breaking in a new QB as well, if we can slow their run game, and have some big plays on offense, we can win this game without any luck. If you are conceding this one you don't have anything in your pants, we have played them really well the last 5 years or so, and we are not scared, and we get them at home. This would be a huge win, but a loss doesn't end the season. Then we go to College Station and face a TAMU team that we have beaten 3 times in a row, and 4 out of 5. It's gonna be a tough one, but we will not be intimidated. Just like the LSU game, I'm not saying we will win this game, but we damn sure can. Then we finish the 2nd stretch out on the road at Fayetville against an Arkansas team that will still be at the beginning stages of a rebuild. We have a bye week following this game so we will not be looking ahead to anything. If we just stay focused and don't beat ourselves, it should be another easy win against UPIG. Then we head home and rest up during the 2nd bye week, and get ready for the final 3 game stretch, which are all at home.
Worst Case- 1-3
Best Case- 4-0
Most probable- 2-2 (but I'd put the o/u for wins at 2.5... 3-1 is more than possible)
3rd Stretch:
11/09 - BYE
11/16 - vs Alabama
11/23 - vs Abilene Christian
11/28 - vs Ole Miss
The final stretch, and just like the 1st and the 2nd, is perfectly scheduled. We get the bye week to rest up after a physically grueling 2nd stretch, and also prepare to take the Giant that is Alabama and Nick Saban. Last time we had them at home, we had them beat and let it slip away, this team could be just as good as that 2017 team. If Tua is injured, we could really give them a battle, if not, still an outside chance. Shoop found the formula to shut them down last year, and we get them at home this year. If our offense isn't just improved, but actually dangerous, who knows what could happen here. By no means am I expecting a win, let's get that straight, but we are due, and anything could happen. Then we get Abilene Christian at home for homecoming, which will be a glorified scrimmage and by all intents and purposes, a third by week, which is great because the next week is a short week as we get Ole Miss at home on Thanksgiving to end the season. We will thump Ole Miss like a drum, embarrass them and never take the foot off the gas. I'm thinking an easy 20+ point win, they just don't match up well against us, and talent wise they are just gonna be bad.
Worst Case- 2-1
Best Case- 3-0
Most Probable- 2-1
Putting it all together:
Worst Case- (6-6)
Best Case- (12-0)
Most Probable- (8-4), but I'm setting the O/U at 8.5 with (9-3) and a NY6 bowl being possible.
Like I said, this season is setting up to be very interesting. Best schedule we have had, maybe ever. I love the way the schedule breaks up, and the home and away matchups work out perfectly to set up the perfect storm. The potential is there for a big year, maybe even huge year. One thing is certain, this year will tell the tale on JoMo, but whatever does happen, he has given himself and our team the opportunity for a potentially wild ride of a season.