Miami vs Central Michigan (Sunday game)

[CadaverDawg]

Miami is throwing their Ace, Van Bell. So worst case scenario it's Plumlee vs their #3....best case, it's Plumlee vs CMU's #4.

Either way, we are in a good spot. Let's hope CMU wins a long, pitcher consuming game.

ETA: 1 of Their message boards is reporting they are starting their Ace, but their other boards are still hoping they start their #4 guy and save Van Bell for us. I can't imagine their coach would be that dumb....you can't risk exiting the Regional without your Ace throwing a single pitch. Would be hilarious if they saved Van Bell and lost to CMU.

[DownwardDawg]

Miami is throwing their Ace, Van Bell. So worst case scenario it's Plumlee vs their #3....best case, it's Plumlee vs CMU's #4.

Either way, we are in a good spot. Let's hope CMU wins a long, pitcher consuming game.

ETA: 1 of Their message boards is reporting they are starting their Ace, but their other boards are still hoping they start their #4 guy and save Van Bell for us. I can't imagine their coach would be that dumb....you can't risk exiting the Regional without your Ace throwing a single pitch. Would be hilarious if they saved Van Bell and lost to CMU.

That would be awesome if they throw their ace and lose. Best case scenario.

[chef dixon]

CMU will light up their #4

[GreenheadDawg]

That would be extremely dumb to risk losing today while your ace is sitting on his ass. Surely he’s not that dumb.

[WSOPdawg]

CMU will light up their #4

Agree, CMU has too much offensive firepower for Miami to take a chance and NOT throw their ace.

[Quaoarsking]

If Miami pitches their best pitcher against CMU, they have virtually no chance to win the Regional, but they probably will get 2nd. So it boils down to are you willing to risk coming in 3rd to have a shot to win the Regional, or would you rather just claim 2nd and get it?

[yjnkdawg]

I can't see their coach not starting their ace today. When you already have one loss in a double elimination tourney, you have to look at what pitching option gives you the best chance of winning the next game.

[TNDawg35]

They have already thrown their #3 against Southern. Their ace is going today and we will get there #4 if they win. I’m not worried about either to be honest. The only pitcher that gave us a hard time was the CMU pitcher who threw 70 something pitches yest. He should be done. They don’t have the pitching to beat us twice. Hell neither one does...

[yjnkdawg]

If Miami pitches their best pitcher against CMU, they have virtually no chance to win the Regional, but they probably will get 2nd. So it boils down to are you willing to risk coming in 3rd to have a shot to win the Regional, or would you rather just claim 2nd and get it?


Coming in second or third in a regional tourney doesn't mean anything either way. Other than you can say you made a regional tournament. Miami still wants to get a shot at playing us.

[The Federalist Engineer]

If I'm Miami, save the best for us. It's not like the Miami Herald will go crazy or something. UM athletics has crashed down the pecking order of importance in South Florida. Because they are a private school, FSU and UF have far more fans.

The numbers indicate that Van Bell is the Ace but it's not overwhelming differential like Small and our #3. They basically have 4 pitchers with #3 type stats.

[Quaoarsking]

I can't see their coach not starting their ace today. When you already have one loss in a double elimination tourney, you have to look at what pitching option gives you the best chance of winning the next game.

I don't necessarily agree. I think you pitch whoever gives you the best shot of winning the Regional, not who gives you the best shot of winning the next game. The real mistake Miami made was not pitching their #4 against Southern in the first place. If they hadn't, they would have 2 weekend guys for the 2 games today.

[yjnkdawg]

I don't necessarily agree. I think you pitch whoever gives you the best shot of winning the Regional, not who gives you the best shot of winning the next game. The real mistake Miami made was not pitching their #4 against Southern in the first place. If they hadn't, they would have 2 weekend guys for the 2 games today.

When you already have one loss, I think you do what you can to win the next game. If they don't win the game this afternoon then it's a moot point on who they pitch against us.

[GreenheadDawg]

Has Miami announced who they are throwing?

[Really Clark?]

Only coaches who out think themselves, go through a tournament without throwing their best pitcher. You never ever get eliminated and not throw your best pitcher. Especially after already gambling once and losing

[DawgNsuds]

Has Miami announced who they are throwing?

This says Van Bell
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2019/6/2/18649341/ncaa-baseball-starkville-regional-central-michigan-chippewas-miami-hurricanes-elimination-rematch

[Quaoarsking]

Only coaches who out think themselves, go through a tournament without throwing their best pitcher. You never ever get eliminated and not throw your best pitcher. Especially after already gambling once and losing

So if we were 1-1 and matched up with Southern and had Small available, do you throw Small? I think not. Ron Polk didn't think so in 2006, either, and it was the right call then, since it maximized our odds of winning the Regional.

Granted, Miami isn't in that extreme of a situation since CMU isn't bad, but Miami (or any team in their situation) should maximize their chances of winning the Regional, not maximize their chances of coming in 2nd. If that means not throwing their best remaining pitcher in an elimination game in order to save him for a tougher opponent later, so be it.

[CadaverDawg]

So if we were 1-1 and matched up with Southern and had Small available, do you throw Small? I think not. Ron Polk didn't think so in 2006, either, and it was the right call then, since it maximized our odds of winning the Regional.

Granted, Miami isn't in that extreme of a situation since CMU isn't bad, but Miami (or any team in their situation) should maximize their chances of winning the Regional, not maximize their chances of coming in 2nd. If that means not throwing their best remaining pitcher in an elimination game in order to save him for a tougher opponent later, so be it.

I pretty much agree with you, but the devil's advocate response would be, "Your chances to win the Regional are done completely if you don't make it to the next game. So giving yourself an opportunity with your #4 is better than sitting at home with your #1 never throwing a pitch". Just saying, I get both views, so there isn't a 100% correct answer I guess.

Unfortunately most coaches are too in fear of losing their jobs and/or fan support, so they won't run the risk of their Ace not pitching. Would open them up to major criticism, even if it gave them their best chance to win the Regional

[RocketDawg]

What time do they play?

[Really Clark?]

So if we were 1-1 and matched up with Southern and had Small available, do you throw Small? I think not. Ron Polk didn't think so in 2006, either, and it was the right call then, since it maximized our odds of winning the Regional.

Granted, Miami isn't in that extreme of a situation since CMU isn't bad, but Miami (or any team in their situation) should maximize their chances of winning the Regional, not maximize their chances of coming in 2nd. If that means not throwing their best remaining pitcher in an elimination game in order to save him for a tougher opponent later, so be it.

They are not playing Southern and they already lost to this same team gambling.

And 2006 our staff didn’t have a great starter. But we started the guys with the most starts (Dunn and Johnson) by far during the season the first 2 games. So don’t know what you are alluding to as far as not pitching our ace? Pigott pitched the end of the second game to secure the close win vs #4 seed and came back and pitched 8 innings the next day to eliminate Elon. He had our lowest ERA but worked both as a sometime starter and bullpen. He was our best pitcher and was used a lot to get to the championship game.

[Quaoarsking]

They are not playing Southern and they already lost to this same team gambling.

And 2006 our staff didn’t have a great starter. But we started the guys with the most starts (Dunn and Johnson) by far during the season the first 2 games. So don’t know what you are alluding to as far as not pitching our ace? Pigott pitched the end of the second game to secure the close win vs #4 seed and came back and pitched 8 innings the next day to eliminate Elon. He had our lowest ERA but worked both as a sometime starter and bullpen. He was our best pitcher and was used a lot to get to the championship game.

There was a lot of speculation of whether Pigott (who was considered to be our clear best pitcher in June 2006) would pitch against the 4 seed or we would hold him. Polk explicitly said in an interview something to the effect of "We came here to win a Regional, not just to win 1 game, so we're going to hold out Pigott for a later game." He acknowledged that if we lost to the 4 seed, that meant that Pigott wouldn't pitch the whole Regional, and he was willing to take the risk because he wanted to win the Regional, not just a game.

Thus I think it's pretty relevant to the discussion at hand. Even if we'd lost to the 4 (I believe it was UNC Asheville?), Polk made the right choice.

[Really Clark?]

There was a lot of speculation of whether Pigott (who was considered to be our clear best pitcher in June 2006) would pitch against the 4 seed or we would hold him. Polk explicitly said in an interview something to the effect of "We came here to win a Regional, not just to win 1 game, so we're going to hold out Pigott for a later game." He acknowledged that if we lost to the 4 seed, that meant that Pigott wouldn't pitch the whole Regional, and he was willing to take the risk because he wanted to win the Regional, not just a game.

Thus I think it's pretty relevant to the discussion at hand. Even if we'd lost to the 4 (I believe it was UNC Asheville?), Polk made the right choice.

Pigott started and pitched the exact same game situation as Miami is playing today vs the same team they lost in the first round. Just like we did in 2006. So Polk did exactly what I said a coach has to do. In fact he pitched Pigott the final 1 2/3 inning the day before for the close in the elimination game against a 4 seed. So he pitched our best pitcher in 2006 the second and third game of the regional for 9 2/3 innings on back to back days when faced with elimination and the pitchers who had the most starts for us that year in the first 2 games. So you are arguing what? Polk didn’t let Pigott wait until a possible championship match up and used him in 2 games when faced with elimination. Against the #4 and #2 seeds. He didn’t wait to hope to throw him against the #1 seed.

[GreenheadDawg]

Everything I’ve seen so far says Van Bell is throwing. That sets up good for us

[Quaoarsking]

I never said that Miami or Polk or anyone else should necessarily "wait to hope to throw him against the #1 seed." I said that Polk did, and Miami should, do whatever they need to do to maximize their chances of winning the Regional. Polk felt that pitching Pigott in the third game (instead of the second) was the way to do that. I haven't done any number-crunching to say what the best way for Miami is to do that, but whatever it is, that's what they should do, even if it also increases their chance of losing the afternoon game today.

If Miami's head coach feels that pitching their best remaining pitcher in the afternoon game gives them the highest probability to win the Regional, he should do it. If he feels that saving the best remaining pitcher for a potential game tonight gives them the highest probability, he should do that. What should have no bearing is "oh no what if I lose without pitching such-and-such pitcher???" Maximizing your chances of winning the Regional is the only thing that should enter into the equation. Polk got it in 2006 after not getting it in 2003. Miami's coach probably doesn't get it, or he wouldn't have thrown a weekend starter against Southern, but maybe I'm wrong about that and he does get it.

[Really Clark?]

I never said that Miami or Polk or anyone else should necessarily "wait to hope to throw him against the #1 seed." I said that Polk did, and Miami should, do whatever they need to do to maximize their chances of winning the Regional. Polk felt that pitching Pigott in the third game (instead of the second) was the way to do that. I haven't done any number-crunching to say what the best way for Miami is to do that, but whatever it is, that's what they should do, even if it also increases their chance of losing the afternoon game today.

If Miami's head coach feels that pitching their best remaining pitcher in the afternoon game gives them the highest probability to win the Regional, he should do it. If he feels that saving the best remaining pitcher for a potential game tonight gives them the highest probability, he should do that. What should have no bearing is "oh no what if I lose without pitching such-and-such pitcher???" Maximizing your chances of winning the Regional is the only thing that should enter into the equation. Polk got it in 2006 after not getting it in 2003. Miami's coach probably doesn't get it, or he wouldn't have thrown a weekend starter against Southern, but maybe I'm wrong about that and he does get it.

But Polk didn’t wait until 3rd game. We were in a one run game vs 4 seed in an elimination second game and brought Pigott in that game as well.

But you have to get to that game to give yourself the best chance to win the regional. Once you gambled and lost a game early, you absolutely have to throw your best pitcher to stave off elimination BEFORE you get to a championship game. Do not overthink “the best chance to win” thought process. Your best chance to win is to throw your best starter. You play match up a little early but you can’t at this point. How many have ever done that and won? Your argument is based on who gives me the best chance to win the regional, the answer is Always your best pitcher to get to the championship game. You are in an elimination game vs a team that already beat you once. You have to pitch your best available pitcher.

[DownwardDawg]

He’s pitching if anyone is interested.

[Liverpooldawg]

Miami really had no choice. They lost to CMU by gambling. They can't afford to do it this time. CMU is a good club. If we hadn't got that double play in the 7th last night we would have been in a real fight. I seriously doubt CMU has much pitching left, but you never know.

[Liverpooldawg]

Miami 2-0 top of the 3rd.

[GreenheadDawg]

UM has some real power in that lineup. Plumlee better keep it down.

[DownwardDawg]

We need Central Michigan to score some runs. Keep Miami ace in the game

[Liverpooldawg]

CMU is out of pitching. Miami isn't.

[Saltydog]

It's a blowout. Miami beating them 8-0 in the 4th.

[DownwardDawg]

It's a blowout. Miami beating them 8-0 in the 4th.

Dang. We needed a tight game. Oh well, we should win either way.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Dang. We needed a tight game. Oh well, we should win either way.

Got my fingers crossed, Miami is squaring everything up, don't know if that is because they can hit or CMU is completely out of pitching.

[DownwardDawg]

Got my fingers crossed, Miami is squaring everything up, don't know if that is because they can hit or CMU is completely out of pitching.

Probably more of the latter. But a little of both.

[GreenheadDawg]

Yeh Miami is completely smashing. We better keep it down.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Yeh Miami is completely smashing. We better keep it down.

They're just taking batting practice right now.

[msudawg1200]

All four of their starters have pitched this weekend. Chris McMahon(3.73 ERA and 12 starts) threw 4.1 innings Friday, while Slade Cecconi(4.19 ERA and 12 starts) threw 2.2 innings. Against Southern yesterday Evan McKendry(4.41 ERA and 13 starts) threw 4 innings. Their ace, Brian Van Belle(3.40 ERa and 15 starts) has thrown 5 innings today. I’m assuming we’ll see Tyler Keysor(3.78 ERA and 5 starts), or they may come back with Cecconi.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Jacksonville State up on Clemson 5-2, what a breeze of a regional.

[GreenheadDawg]

Jacksonville State up on Clemson 5-2, what a breeze of a regional.

Yeh they definitely stuck us with the toughest 2 seed. Miami has a lot of pitching ready to go.

ETA both LSU and OM were gifted their regional and neither deserved to even host. Love how that happens.

[GreenheadDawg]

UM has 5 freaking HRs today. They are just taking BP at this point.

[CadaverDawg]

We'll see Keysor. FWIW, their fans think we'll rough him up. Looks like we may have to in order to win

[HereComesTheSpiral]

We'll see Keysor. FWIW, their fans think we'll rough him up. Looks like we may have to in order to win

Nah, they're going to be worn out from running the bases and doing HR dances in the afternoon game.**

[KOdawg1]

Need the bats to come out hot tonight. Gotta feeling it's gonna be a slugfest

[GreenheadDawg]

We'll see Keysor. FWIW, their fans think we'll rough him up. Looks like we may have to in order to win

We better because they are gonna put up some runs. They can smash. Really hate we had to use Liebelt against ****ing Southern

[CadaverDawg]

We better because they are gonna put up some runs. They can smash. Really hate we had to use Liebelt against ****ing Southern

Liebelt will be good to go tonight. He could give us 2-3 if needed. Seems like he's given up a bomb per appearance lately though

[GreenheadDawg]

Liebelt will be good to go tonight. He could give us 2-3 if needed. Seems like he's given up a bomb per appearance lately though

I trust him a lot more than Barlow or Self. They scare me to death because you never know if they are even going to be around the plate.

[CadaverDawg]

I trust him a lot more than Barlow or Self. They scare me to death because you never know if they are even going to be around the plate.

Definitely better than those two. Self has no business pitching anymore this season. Games are too important now. Only if we are up like 10 runs with an inning or two left to play.

[GreenheadDawg]

Definitely better than those two. Self has no business pitching anymore this season. Games are too important now. Only if we are up like 10 runs with an inning or two left to play.

Exactly. I almost vomited when he came in last night. We need somebody to step up and grow some nuts on the mound. Plumlee needs to have the game of his life.

[CadaverDawg]

Miami fans on their board are extremely confident that they can come back and beat us twice with the way they're hitting. Guess we'll see. They will definitely come in confident. If we lose tonight, I won't feel great about tomorrow

[GreenheadDawg]

I would feel pretty confident too if we were dropping bombs all over the park like they have been. They have a lot of reason to be confident. It’s gonna be a battle.

[DownwardDawg]

Plumlee going 7 tonight. Got a feeling. We gonna rake.

[Cooterpoot]

CMU shot their wad. They had 3 pitchers on that staff and all were done after our game.

[GreenheadDawg]

Plumlee going 7 tonight. Got a feeling. We gonna rake.

I like your confidence. I’m hitching to your wagon.

[TNDawg35]

CMU has no pitching at all. There best reliever was the one that shut us down. Hell Miami should have killed them today.