For the baseball experts

[Dawgcap]

Just a question about what you think our odds are to win a regional, super regional, top 4 in country in the CWS and finally a Natty. I?m thinking your thoughts on each with a percentage guess.

[Captain Falcon]

Regional - 80%
Super - 60%
Final Four - 30-40%
National Title - 15-20%

I think we are a Top 5 team in the country overall and maybe the best team out there when everything is clicking. The baseball postseason is such a crap shoot though and the best teams do not always win it all or even get to Omaha sometimes. A lot just depends on matchups and who is hot at the right time. There are always national seeds who coast to Omaha and then others who cannot even make it out of their own Regional.

That said, I would be really surprised if we get knocked out in the Regional round, and a little surprised if we do not get to Omaha. If you ask most of the national experts, we are one of the favorites to win it all.

[Cooterpoot]

75% regional
50% super but depends on our match up
20% top 4 finish
10% Natty

[msstate7]

75% regional
50% super but depends on our match up
20% top 4 finish
10% Natty

I think you got it right... so hard to predict these things without seeing actual regionals though

[Todd4State]

I think you got it right... so hard to predict these things without seeing actual regionals though

Yeah I want to see the match ups first. But I agree with the percentages in general so far.

[Dental Dawg33]

Being that we are hosting, I think we have an 80% chance winning regional, 65-70% winning super. We should make it back to Omaha, but anything can happen obviously. 12.5% chance we win it all, 8 teams and at that point anyone is capable. Our guys just need to show up and play good baseball and not worry about how good the pundits say we are. If we show up and play ball like we all know our team is capable of, look out

[Cooterpoot]

If we matched with LSU in the supers...it all falls to 1%.

[GreenheadDawg]

If we matched with LSU in the supers...it all falls to 1%.

This. We wouldn’t win. This team isn’t mentally tough enough.

[CadaverDawg]

With the way we have been hitting.....

Regional - 65%
Super - 50%
Final 4 - 5%
Natty - 1%

[yjnkdawg]

75% regional
50% super but depends on our match up
20% top 4 finish
10% Natty


Based upon the limited information, on the brackets, who we will play, etc. , I think this is a pretty good spot on prediction this early.

[yjnkdawg]

This. We wouldn?t win. This team isn?t mentally tough enough.


I agree. LSU seems to have that IT factor against us and in the SEC tournament. Even when their pitching staff is depleted and they lose several players due to injuries. Apparently we haven't found that IT factor yet.

[Marvin]

Win Regional- 75%... 85% if we get the SWAC and throw Plumlee game 1.

Win Super - 50%.. If we get to the Super we have ~60% of winning them but the odds of us losing the regional have to be factored in. This team has a 50/50 shot of making it to Omaha IMO

Top 4 - 30%. Half of the odds to make Omaha plus a bit since lesser teams will be there

Natty - 10% - 1/8 x 50 plus a bit since lesser teams will be there.

[KOdawg1]

You have to remember that we'll be at home where we usually do pretty well. So I think the chances of getting to Omaha are pretty good. But like we've seen this week, when you put this team on the road or a neutral site, they're a different team. So the chances of going deep in Omaha and winning it are low.

[Todd4State]

I agree. LSU seems to have that IT factor against us and in the SEC tournament. Even when their pitching staff is depleted and they lose several players due to injuries. Apparently we haven't found that IT factor yet.

I don't really understand this. We went 2-3 against LSU and beat them in what is to this point the most grueling and memorable game of the season against them. The truth is our staff was pretty depleted too and Ginn had a bad inning against them plus an error that extended the inning. But it's not like they "owned" us this year. Owning someone would be like going 4-0 against them like we did against Ole Miss.

[Todd4State]

You have to remember that we'll be at home where we usually do pretty well. So I think the chances of getting to Omaha are pretty good. But like we've seen this week, when you put this team on the road or a neutral site, they're a different team. So the chances of going deep in Omaha and winning it are low.

I agree but I think the format in Omaha is a lot better and more conducive for a team like MSU to win it. We won't have to start Brandon Smith in Omaha plus I think he SEC Tournament field is more difficult than the CWS field a lot of times.

[gravedigger]

Just a question about what you think our odds are to win a regional, super regional, top 4 in country in the CWS and finally a Natty. I?m thinking your thoughts on each with a percentage guess.

NOT an expert, but here goes:

Regional: 70%
Super: 50%
Final 4: 10%
Natty: 5%

We are strong, but not deep on starting pitching when it comes to playing top teams.

We hit as well as anyone save the last 4 games. Everyone is pretty good from here on and this aint college football. Much less predictable and therefore should be fun to watch.

[yjnkdawg]

I don't really understand this. We went 2-3 against LSU and beat them in what is to this point the most grueling and memorable game of the season against them. The truth is our staff was pretty depleted too and Ginn had a bad inning against them plus an error that extended the inning. But it's not like they "owned" us this year. Owning someone would be like going 4-0 against them like we did against Ole Miss.

By the IT factor, I didn't say they owned us. I meant they have that desire to win right now. I know we didn't have to get any SEC tournament wins to solidify our NCAA seeding (as LSU did), but they are still playing, and are now projected as a host. I doubt they will beat Vandy, but I wouldn't count them out and I don't care to play them in our Super Regional. I agree on what you said on our pitchers being depleted, but we weren't at the point of having to consider any position infielders or outfielders coming in to pitch if need be. All I'm saying is that LSU just seems to will themselves (right now) to win when their baseball future is on the line.

[MarketingBully]

I don’t think LSU makes it out of their regional if they have a 2 like Miami in there.

[HoopsDawg]

With the way we have been hitting.....

Regional - 65%
Super - 50%
Final 4 - 5%
Natty - 1%

Infield defense too. Has to be better.

[CadaverDawg]

Infield defense too. Has to be better.

No doubt. And when they are bad, it's usually Real bad and the errors come in bunches

[GreenheadDawg]

I don't really understand this. We went 2-3 against LSU and beat them in what is to this point the most grueling and memorable game of the season against them. The truth is our staff was pretty depleted too and Ginn had a bad inning against them plus an error that extended the inning. But it's not like they "owned" us this year. Owning someone would be like going 4-0 against them like we did against Ole Miss.

With the way we are playing right now I don’t see how anyone can be confident. Our most important hitters are slumping something terrible. Also, it’s not just that we are hitting the ball hard at someone, they have had some God awful at bats the past 2 weeks.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Just a question about what you think our odds are to win a regional, super regional, top 4 in country in the CWS and finally a Natty. I?m thinking your thoughts on each with a percentage guess.

Win Regional - 90%
Win Super Regional - 50% (depends on matchup and assumes we host)
Play in T4- 5%
Win NC - 1%

We have All American talent in some positions but we have CUSA level talent at other positions.

PS - I am not a baseball expert, not even close

[Sienfield]

I don't really understand this. We went 2-3 against LSU and beat them in what is to this point the most grueling and memorable game of the season against them. The truth is our staff was pretty depleted too and Ginn had a bad inning against them plus an error that extended the inning. But it's not like they "owned" us this year. Owning someone would be like going 4-0 against them like we did against Ole Miss.

I believe 25% of our loses this year were to LSU.

[Todd4State]

I believe 25% of our loses this year were to LSU.

Close- we have 13 losses. I'm fine rounding up.

But it's fun with numbers because we also played them more than anyone and only have one more loss against them than we do wins.

I'm not saying that we've played great against them- but going 2-3 just doesn't say "own" to me. We have a worse record against Arkansas if we're honest- and that's closer to being owned than going 2-3 against someone.

[Todd4State]

With the way we are playing right now I don’t see how anyone can be confident. Our most important hitters are slumping something terrible. Also, it’s not just that we are hitting the ball hard at someone, they have had some God awful at bats the past 2 weeks.

Well, time for Gautreau to earn his paycheck. Every time we have a funk at the plate we typically snap out of it the next week. We'll see if that happens again.

[MarketingBully]

Well, time for Gautreau to earn his paycheck. Every time we have a funk at the plate we typically snap out of it the next week. We'll see if that happens again.

This would be the time to start hitting. We start getting hot now we can ride it to the CWS.

[Todd4State]

This would be the time to start hitting. We start getting hot now we can ride it to the CWS.

Yeah- it's pretty much now or never.

[MarketingBully]

Yeah- it's pretty much now or never.

Yep. It’s all about approach to me. You can tell when we are following Geautreau’s approach vs when we are not. When we are following Geautreau’s approach we grind at bats. We are aggressive at the plate. If the pitcher throws what we are looking for early, we swing and make good contact. If not, we will take pitches until we get the pitch we want. We foul off pitches if they are close when we get to 2 strikes. That’s our two strike approach. When we struggle, we let fastballs go by and swing at balls in the dirt and look like we have no approach whatsoever. Examples of this in practice bad approach Arkansas weekend and Hoover; Geautreau approach Georgia weekend and Ole Miss weekend.

[Todd4State]

Yep. It’s all about approach to me. You can tell when we are following Geautreau’s approach vs when we are not. When we are following Geautreau’s approach we grind at bats. We are aggressive at the plate. If the pitcher throws what we are looking for early, we swing and make good contact. If not, we will take pitches until we get the pitch we want. We foul off pitches if they are close when we get to 2 strikes. That’s our two strike approach. When we struggle, we let fastballs go by and swing at balls in the dirt and look like we have no approach whatsoever. Examples of this in practice bad approach Arkansas weekend and Hoover; Geautreau approach Georgia weekend and Ole Miss weekend.

Here's my thing about that. Surely from the dugout he can see after one and certainly two times through the order what our approach looks like. How come we very rarely see adjustments when we're off like that? It's like our coaches just sit back and see if the players can figure it out.

When we beat LSU the other night Lemonis FINALLY had a team meeting around what? The 14th inning or so. And the approach actually improved some- enough for us to tie the game and then eventually win it. Why not do that in the fifth inning?

[MarketingBully]

Here's my thing about that. Surely from the dugout he can see after one and certainly two times through the order what our approach looks like. How come we very rarely see adjustments when we're off like that? It's like our coaches just sit back and see if the players can figure it out.

When we beat LSU the other night Lemonis FINALLY had a team meeting around what? The 14th inning or so. And the approach actually improved some- enough for us to tie the game and then eventually win it. Why not do that in the fifth inning?

Don’t ask me. I’m just the one making the obvious observations but then I get pushback from Shotgun saying this pitcher has this bad ass pitch and of course last night’s argument was “hitting is hard” which I laughed at.

[Dawgcap]

Oh my so now we have a weekend or game where we follow Geautreau approach and when we don’t. Has to be same with defense and pitching I guess. What I read here amazes me.

[yjnkdawg]

Close- we have 13 losses. I'm fine rounding up.

But it's fun with numbers because we also played them more than anyone and only have one more loss against them than we do wins.

I'm not saying that we've played great against them- but going 2-3 just doesn't say "own" to me. We have a worse record against Arkansas if we're honest- and that's closer to being owned than going 2-3 against someone.


I'm not sure where you get this "own" thing? Nobody in this thread has stated that. That I am aware of anyway. Although they have caused us some problems, and sometimes their players seem to want the game more than our players at times.

[Todd4State]

I'm not sure where you get this "own" thing? Nobody in this thread has stated that. That I am aware of anyway. Although they have caused us some problems, and sometimes their players seem to want the game more than our players at times.


I've definitely seen it on other boards and we obviously have people that don't want to play them because they beat us.