Taking the Pepsi Challenge with the offense

[Prediction? Pain.]

A culmination of things -- slow morning at the office, Stevens' commitment, feeling the need to flog dead horses, etc. -- led me down a comparative-statistics rabbit hole today. What I found was at least mildly interesting, so, hey, why not waste some more time by reciting what I've found here?

So I was looking back at the numbers from last year -- because that's what sane, well-adjusted people do instead of working or whatever, right? -- and I thought it'd be interesting to take a broad look at our offense under Fitz. I've read and re-read all the Mullen vs. Moorhead, Dak vs. Fitz vs. Relf vs. Russell analyses, but I figured that given Fitz' unique skill set at the QB position, it'd be nice to know how Mullen's two years and Moorhead's one year with the man stacked up. I'm well aware of the variations with those three teams' offensive personnel, especially at the WR position, over that span, and that the wholesale staff change in 2018 had to create at least some growing pains, regardless of the scheme. So yeah, this wasn't 100% apples to apples to apples. But whatever.

Well, what I found was interesting in its uniformity. Through all the ups and downs and weirdness of those three years of football, the offense under Fitz was, well, consistent. So much so, I thought, that I'm not sure I could tell them apart on paper.

So let's find out. Below are our offense's SEC and national ranks for the 2016, 2017, and 2018 seasons in traditional and advanced offensive stats. All should be self-explanatory for the most part. (Overall S&P+ (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff) and FEI (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff) offensive ratings measure efficiency, success, and explosiveness, all while accounting for opponent quality and discounting garbage time, and the S&P+ Success rate measures % of plays that achieve a score or minimum yardage gain based on down and distance.)

To make things more interesting, I've hidden which season is which. Can y'all tell them apart at a glance? Can you tell whether one offense was or should have been markedly worse or better than the others? Because without looking them up, I'm not sure I can.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/MldLKYswQt-TgTflU1g4REYTNUHDcz__yyPwdS8INIblPKXod7S8Hbkn9wdlJ rMWxzk7oS9GuYXzjSW3SwoHu7R7yj1IIJtgtvaO8LX0ahTpjVy BFtVEz1XQd2uhHkPhpLCzQ2BKJslUMkln9hnIQqhCpK1ePrtve KWInck6Pxv7S7KsIKSkS-U9XKTBZ3GPrB1CgayG8hyDc4nq6DsRy2AOpp17Lalu-TGp8Yc6-SHFldDj50mnzyawbKN7XvDiJ5qUeEod4PdYOC87degQkCLTThi Ub7xQYZV3AuYzlcijhI3XuOnj35E-fnFo9y_FojqATEVgUaiClOpXE0AlOL4rQ-K6JJz8zt136GIkYkzVxzQlMhsMW17BOSgE_Z531Bx2Le2dtHjV cZCvF9unkRX-fbnX5EbGCQv8JcIqr6Nelj9vwTz9yQS5g5S0WyCJwN1PneaFva PTWHpsMnczZ9cfIpvomyo-mb1SmgE_37VS5bEadWe1xO63Q7SdAlnQQEgGxTB6zjVU6JEyLg Y1BxfXOTW4eLVWnn8topUN076wF-PVUJkb899Mcr-H2XnkN9zCoN6r-3qPkik8DpEqMMV6WByhp2WD36DT9ijqBNYlbWZLHg_dpZl58F0 6WQ4GtUih5UB5a9oZObgxKMbMGj3f4OfH2X5c=w725-h937-no
I'll come by later tonight or tomorrow night with some whisky and lift the veil and pontificate ignorantly about what all this mumbo jumbo means or doesn't mean.

Enjoy the weekend, people. And three cheers for internet connections and a slow Friday at work!

[MedDawg]

You've hidden the whole thing

[sleepy dawg]

If you don't come back for a while, you're going to be as disappointed as me when I tried to take the challenge.

[Prediction? Pain.]

You've hidden the whole thing


If you don't come back for a while, you're going to be as disappointed as me when I tried to take the challenge.

Crap, really? I can see it on my PC and phone. Damnation.

Here's a screenshot of what I'm seeing on my phone (as an attachment and embedded):

3089

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/o7ruo2tuwr-NiEuEZ5tEwY0aI-WFqDWAB71f1-uTqPaOZYCQ5aKw1UiapVqEIfoZUG4j71gqrP008LpDWU0o5rbn 7usCCrO3yoxVbhZfcShLey6C62sKI00E_iCjPNzcTOCajh65D0 K_Ian9mBadBcnzI-RGdXNYU7NUvF8Xf9JbPVssEEnqp8_AYbXQuoK8cMKnwhXO-PdUeW9xuvxIm__2xSKyEPV2ZV7-K0QaRTg-2Fci580s2m4gx1hvpkSbM9vIT4JZ14k31WlsNY6KxJ68agR3Lf 11loe5HVZ-qkj5X5nzrefi1SD4X-36Y_hFEGvVWNE3BTQF_5dDcsPsoJJL2vM5FQEQMJ8HEPoARrs1 xO2IkVVPb2ci_QrYB2gkrfxo4vy-cCjF7scngDOARogxatTHmo7pD78iu3Qij02-KMxHCd9dtPyc91vIrF7Qc0oZGT9a-_KfC-MtIL3Mo30savwYZRFKk-4kyT1Y_GUwyNMgfB_V-Y8rkMrme_loqjwMSXO6jOE7YHCDyOrHyTkp9oKJ4SEEqTnCrpt sLPO8e1UOS5LTiO6zJj11haBcopgEXCeGjZqArIv0zylco_6nR XxBX0Lq32wcjDKF9CLBB28ZMn3adEp2Q44jpt6SxHr7v3MBIxc mE_J21RqRVR0FyN6Q_zn9=w398-h794-no

And here's the original file, this time as an attachment:

3090

And one more time as embedded:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/alS4ZFQYWQO_54LscRoBHSrvr8J9IkBtcMILQWIGrqyJfZH_uL RUdf8SwO9nHzypc31fdr4lycyqS5gg9Z3WohgIhikvfsi2abEA 9ErF9eIeu71M5u6QDtg_LeKi25y7FnDkaaZHlS0v7PCRwUayzE Qxwfi710V3mfcGm3xcMGF6xqyfu_NTqNBUs-c62VAIc-ejm7Ajhcq0SfOMlmVxEBbAu80b33A0opDeEQJgm2g7bkSuObF_ XF4_qq3qD67hGk5vlQhebXoN4pyMtdq5bSy3apSdVRjdgWfcS3 xHcM3TcM_pAq-aLBwS_vD3IoAcdhPke15iLIg-O03PeY2x7BSyX8GQowv9cDFQ_QE8RaOR9C5NRjLk1sr7r6eTZ3 cS_NjADXcWjUmkz6ZugvBZy1_RNXJizOw0Ry2UDQgEm9EpZ6BV eH3JXBpJFfZR-SbARrpqDLkPX7F3dayI6g1oiHViusDonn3l58H5Rn2hsu6tIDw OgLZxYcse75Kt8rS-8cFR8CY8TiTBRB6unSG64DFLqriKYK6MgGzrKYysJhhdcZrdOB GW0R-iYNWa-B842NOhAuxdjIxLqyvfSBNZCknyBxFJDKlKyECcDkcgkBXFaj3 QJq2Ic33AT9Z1vISed2UfcVWBbEpDewU8FcD_8ZwKkYR9ExMW= w671-h867-no

[azdawg]

Crap, really? I can see it on my PC and phone. Damnation.

Here's a screenshot of what I'm seeing on my phone (as an attachment and embedded):

3089

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/o7ruo2tuwr-NiEuEZ5tEwY0aI-WFqDWAB71f1-uTqPaOZYCQ5aKw1UiapVqEIfoZUG4j71gqrP008LpDWU0o5rbn 7usCCrO3yoxVbhZfcShLey6C62sKI00E_iCjPNzcTOCajh65D0 K_Ian9mBadBcnzI-RGdXNYU7NUvF8Xf9JbPVssEEnqp8_AYbXQuoK8cMKnwhXO-PdUeW9xuvxIm__2xSKyEPV2ZV7-K0QaRTg-I I2Fci580s2m4gx1hvpkSbM9vIT4JZ14k31WlsNY6KxJ68agR3L f11loe5HVZ-qkj5X5nzrefi1SD4X-36Y_hFEGvVWNE3BTQF_5dDcsPsoJJL2vM5FQEQMJ8HEPoARrs1 xO2IkVVPb2ci_QrYB2gkrfxo4vy-cCjF7scngDOARogxatTHmo7pD78iu3Qij02-KMxHCd9dtPyc91vIrF7Qc0oZGT9a-_KfC-MtIL3Mo30savwYZRFKk-4kyT1Y_GUwyNMgfB_V-Y8rkMrme_loqjwMSXO6jOE7YHCDyOrHyTkp9oKJ4SEEqTnCrpt sLPO8e1UOS5LTiO6zJj11haBcopgEXCeGjZqArIv0zylco_6nR XxBX0Lq32wcjDKF9CLBB28ZMn3adEp2Q44jpt6SxHr7v3MBIxc mE_J21RqRVR0FyN6Q_zn9=w398-h794-no

And here's the original file, this time as an attachment:

3090

And one more time as embedded:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/alS4ZFQYWQO_54LscRoBHSrvr8J9IkBtcMILQWIGrqyJfZH_uL RUdf8SwO9nHzypc31fdr4lycyqS5gg9Z3WohgIhikvfsi2abEA 9ErF9eIeu71M5u6QDtg_LeKi25y7FnDkaaZHlS0v7PCRwUayzE Qxwfi710V3mfcGm3xcMGF6xqyfu_NTqNBUs-c62VAIc-ejm7Ajhcq0SfOMlmVxEBbAu80b33A0opDeEQJgm2g7bkSuObF_ XF4_qq3qD67hGk5vlQhebXoN4pyMtdq5bSy3apSdVRjdgWfcS3 xHcM3TcM_pAq-aLBwS_vD3IoAcdhPke15iLIg-O03PeY2x7BSyX8GQowv9cDFQ_QE8RaOR9C5NRjLk1sr7r6eTZ3 cS_NjADXcWjUmkz6ZugvBZy1_RNXJizOw0Ry2UDQgEm9EpZ6BV eH3JXBpJFfZR-SbARrpqDLkPX7F3dayI6g1oiHViusDonn3l58H5Rn2hsu6tIDw OgLZxYcse75Kt8rS-8cFR8CY8TiTBRB6unSG64DFLqriKYK6MgGzrKYysJhhdcZrdOB GW0R-iYNWa-B842NOhAuxdjIxLqyvfSBNZCknyBxFJDKlKyECcDkcgkBXFaj3 QJq2Ic33AT9Z1vISed2UfcVWBbEpDewU8FcD_8ZwKkYR9ExMW= w671-h867-no


Good one

[duncflydawg]

All of this pretty much confirms to me that Fitz just was who he was. Even as he improved, other teams figured out that if you just man up on the receivers, and keep someone watching Fitz, he would have to beat you with his arm. He could out athletic most teams we played, but struggled against teams where he couldn?t just run over or run by them.

[Dawgtini]

Agree dunc. Futz was who he was and the offense really wasn?t that much different under JoMo with Fitz under center. I?m guessing a=2017 b=2016 and c=2018

[Prediction? Pain.]

A = 2018, B = 2016, C = 2017

[sleepy dawg]

A = 2018, B = 2016, C = 2017

Thanks for putting this together... I just now had a chance to look at it.

[Tbonewannabe]

A = 2018, B = 2016, C = 2017

Interesting that 2017 was worse than 2018 in almost every category. I guess more than anything it shows that we just played a tougher schedule than 2017.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Interesting that 2017 was worse than 2018 in almost every category. I guess more than anything it shows that we just played a tougher schedule than 2017.

Crud, sort of meant to include SOS numbers. According to two advanced-stat systems, the schedules were similarly strong each year, especially in 2017 and 2018. Here are our national SOS rankings for each of those three seasons per the FEI and S&P+:

2016: 9th / 23rd

2017: 5th / 5th

2018: 7th / 8th

[msstate7]

When considering yds/play in conference, I think it is important to consider number of plays...
2016 = 566
2017 = 611
2018 = 490

Does the increase in yds/play offset the decreased total yds?


ETA... In 2017, yds/play were down, but number of plays was way higher and 3rd down % was great. Seems it was by design to sustain drives and help the defense

[Tbonewannabe]

When considering yds/play in conference, I think it is important to consider number of plays...
2016 = 566
2017 = 611
2018 = 490

Does the increase in yds/play offset the decreased total yds?


ETA... In 2017, yds/play were down, but number of plays was way higher and 3rd down % was great. Seems it was by design to sustain drives and help the defense

I guess we will see if Moorhead ran fewer plays on purpose to help the defense or if it is just how he operates. Now with Stevens he doesn't have the excuse that the QB just doesn't understand the offense. Next year will let us know a lot about our offense under Moorhead.

[BrunswickDawg]

When considering yds/play in conference, I think it is important to consider number of plays...
2016 = 566
2017 = 611
2018 = 490

Does the increase in yds/play offset the decreased total yds?


ETA... In 2017, yds/play were down, but number of plays was way higher and 3rd down % was great. Seems it was by design to sustain drives and help the defense

Joes Offense at PSU ran 660 plays in ‘17 in 9 conference games, and 673 in 10 games in ‘16. Based on averages, that’s 587 and 536 over 8 games (so it relates to an SEC schedule). So which do you think is the outlier? 490 plays last year or his PSU numbers?

[msstate7]

Joes Offense at PSU ran 660 plays in ‘17 in 9 conference games, and 673 in 10 games in ‘16. Based on averages, that’s 587 and 536 over 8 games (so it relates to an SEC schedule). So which do you think is the outlier? 490 plays last year or his PSU numbers?

I'm not sure you can compare the 2 yet. Hopefully he can get the offense rolling like he did there, but I doubt seriously we ever have the players to out talent defenses in the sec consistently like penn st did in the big 10. Even last year when we had the talent advantage, we destroyed teams. When the talent level was equal or we were out-manned, the offense sputtered, a lot.

I'm really hopeful that everything was fitz's fault like most believe here. This year will tell a lot. I hope to be ragged on a lot this season

[Tbonewannabe]

I'm not sure you can compare the 2 yet. Hopefully he can get the offense rolling like he did there, but I doubt seriously we ever have the players to out talent defenses in the sec consistently like penn st did in the big 10. Even last year when we had the talent advantage, we destroyed teams. When the talent level was equal or we were out-manned, the offense sputtered, a lot.

I'm really hopeful that everything was fitz's fault like most believe here. This year will tell a lot. I hope to be ragged on a lot this season

That same thing could be said for the last decade of MSU football. Most people that was tired of Mullen's constant job search wanted someone who could actually compete with great teams. We very rarely beat a team that ended up in the top 15-20 and I don't think we have beaten a team that finished higher than 15 in Mullen's entire career.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I guess we will see if Moorhead ran fewer plays on purpose to help the defense or if it is just how he operates. Now with Stevens he doesn't have the excuse that the QB just doesn't understand the offense. Next year will let us know a lot about our offense under Moorhead.


Joes Offense at PSU ran 660 plays in ‘17 in 9 conference games, and 673 in 10 games in ‘16. Based on averages, that’s 587 and 536 over 8 games (so it relates to an SEC schedule). So which do you think is the outlier? 490 plays last year or his PSU numbers?


I'm not sure you can compare the 2 yet. Hopefully he can get the offense rolling like he did there, but I doubt seriously we ever have the players to out talent defenses in the sec consistently like penn st did in the big 10. Even last year when we had the talent advantage, we destroyed teams. When the talent level was equal or we were out-manned, the offense sputtered, a lot.

I'm really hopeful that everything was fitz's fault like most believe here. This year will tell a lot. I hope to be ragged on a lot this season

I didn't include offensive pace numbers in part because it would've been a dead giveaway. S&P+ has an "adjusted pace" stat that takes raw offensive snap count and adjusts them for style of offense (because the pace of a run-focused offense is a little different that a pass-first offense). In 2016 and 2017, Mullen's offenses at State were both in the Top 50 nationally in adjusted pace. Not super fast, but still relatively quick. In 2018, our offense was, as we could all tell by watching, very, very slow -- 113th.

Now, as we've discussed before, pace and success/efficiency aren't necessarily tied to one another. The paces of the Top 25 offenses in the S&P+ rankings every year for the past three years are all over the map, for both Power 5 and Group of 5 teams. Moorhead's offenses at Penn St. in 2016 and 2017 were perfect examples of this. In 2016, PSU's was the most explosive offense in college football and it was Top 25 in both the FEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. And in 2017, it was elite - Top 5 in both FEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. But neither was particularly fast. 50th in adjusted pace in 2016 and 86th in adjusted pace in 2017.

The 2017 and 2018 pace numbers for State show the same thing. Mullen had us playing faster than Moorhead and yet our success rates were identical.

Another thing that I left out for later discussion is offensive line stats. In 2016, 2017, and 2018, our offensive line was really, really good at run blocking. Our rate of allowing TFLs and 0-yard runs in each of those years was Top 15 nationally. And our "line yards" ranking -- which is a stat that's based on the theory that for the first X yards of a run on any given down and distance, the run-blocking gets some percentage of the credit -- was Top 20 each of those years, too.

But the pass blocking -- sack rate -- tells a different story. In 2016 and 2017, it was phenomenal. Top 15 both years. Last year? 99th. Yikes

So even though the relative continuity in personnel on the line allowed for continuity in the run blocking, it didn't matter for the pass blocking. There are a several ways to look at this, I suppose. Maybe the O-Line coach wasn't doing his job teaching a different pass-blocking scheme. Maybe the plays, by design, were taking too long to develop. Maybe the receivers sucked at running routes and had frequent bungles, making Fitz hold onto the ball too long. Maybe Fitz held onto the ball too long because he didn't know what he was doing. Maybe all of the above. Regardless, this seems to be a bad thing and can't have helped the passing offense in 2018.

But the thing is, even with giving up way, way, way too many sacks last year, our passing offense was in the same place as it was the year before. With one of the best pass-blocking lines in college football in 2017, we were still dead last in in the conference in yards per attempt, QB rating, and completion %, and were 123rd nationally in explosiveness.

Weird.

[Tbonewannabe]

I didn't include offensive pace numbers in part because it would've been a dead giveaway. S&P+ has an "adjusted pace" stat that takes raw offensive snap count and adjusts them for style of offense (because the pace of a run-focused offense is a little different that a pass-first offense). In 2016 and 2017, Mullen's offenses at State were both in the Top 50 nationally in adjusted pace. Not super fast, but still relatively quick. In 2018, our offense was, as we could all tell by watching, very, very slow -- 113th.

Now, as we've discussed before, pace and success/efficiency aren't necessarily tied to one another. The paces of the Top 25 offenses in the S&P+ rankings every year for the past three years are all over the map, for both Power 5 and Group of 5 teams. Moorhead's offenses at Penn St. in 2016 and 2017 were perfect examples of this. In 2016, PSU's was the most explosive offense in college football and it was Top 25 in both the FEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. And in 2017, it was elite - Top 5 in both FEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. But neither was particularly fast. 50th in adjusted pace in 2016 and 86th in adjusted pace in 2017.

The 2017 and 2018 pace numbers for State show the same thing. Mullen had us playing faster than Moorhead and yet our success rates were identical.

Another thing that I left out for later discussion is offensive line stats. In 2016, 2017, and 2018, our offensive line was really, really good at run blocking. Our rate of allowing TFLs and 0-yard runs in each of those years was Top 15 nationally. And our "line yards" ranking -- which is a stat that's based on the theory that for the first X yards of a run on any given down and distance, the run-blocking gets some percentage of the credit -- was Top 20 each of those years, too.

But the pass blocking -- sack rate -- tells a different story. In 2016 and 2017, it was phenomenal. Top 15 both years. Last year? 99th. Yikes

So even though the relative continuity in personnel on the line allowed for continuity in the run blocking, it didn't matter for the pass blocking. There are a several ways to look at this, I suppose. Maybe the O-Line coach wasn't doing his job teaching a different pass-blocking scheme. Maybe the plays, by design, were taking too long to develop. Maybe the receivers sucked at running routes and had frequent bungles, making Fitz hold onto the ball too long. Maybe Fitz held onto the ball too long because he didn't know what he was doing. Maybe all of the above. Regardless, this seems to be a bad thing and can't have helped the passing offense in 2018.

But the thing is, even with giving up way, way, way too many sacks last year, our passing offense was in the same place as it was the year before. With one of the best pass-blocking lines in college football in 2017, we were still dead last in in the conference in yards per attempt, QB rating, and completion %, and were 123rd nationally in explosiveness.

Weird.

This probably points to Fitz being a great athlete playing QB and Mullen could hide it better than Moorhead. It might also be a sign that maybe Fitz lack of ability might have slowed down the offense also. Who knows if Fitz will make it in the NFL as a QB because he is still so raw with the lack of truly playing QB in high school. He definitely has the physical talent to make it.

[msstate7]

I didn't include offensive pace numbers in part because it would've been a dead giveaway. S&P+ has an "adjusted pace" stat that takes raw offensive snap count and adjusts them for style of offense (because the pace of a run-focused offense is a little different that a pass-first offense). In 2016 and 2017, Mullen's offenses at State were both in the Top 50 nationally in adjusted pace. Not super fast, but still relatively quick. In 2018, our offense was, as we could all tell by watching, very, very slow -- 113th.

Now, as we've discussed before, pace and success/efficiency aren't necessarily tied to one another. The paces of the Top 25 offenses in the S&P+ rankings every year for the past three years are all over the map, for both Power 5 and Group of 5 teams. Moorhead's offenses at Penn St. in 2016 and 2017 were perfect examples of this. In 2016, PSU's was the most explosive offense in college football and it was Top 25 in both the FEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. And in 2017, it was elite - Top 5 in both FEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. But neither was particularly fast. 50th in adjusted pace in 2016 and 86th in adjusted pace in 2017.

The 2017 and 2018 pace numbers for State show the same thing. Mullen had us playing faster than Moorhead and yet our success rates were identical.

Another thing that I left out for later discussion is offensive line stats. In 2016, 2017, and 2018, our offensive line was really, really good at run blocking. Our rate of allowing TFLs and 0-yard runs in each of those years was Top 15 nationally. And our "line yards" ranking -- which is a stat that's based on the theory that for the first X yards of a run on any given down and distance, the run-blocking gets some percentage of the credit -- was Top 20 each of those years, too.

But the pass blocking -- sack rate -- tells a different story. In 2016 and 2017, it was phenomenal. Top 15 both years. Last year? 99th. Yikes

So even though the relative continuity in personnel on the line allowed for continuity in the run blocking, it didn't matter for the pass blocking. There are a several ways to look at this, I suppose. Maybe the O-Line coach wasn't doing his job teaching a different pass-blocking scheme. Maybe the plays, by design, were taking too long to develop. Maybe the receivers sucked at running routes and had frequent bungles, making Fitz hold onto the ball too long. Maybe Fitz held onto the ball too long because he didn't know what he was doing. Maybe all of the above. Regardless, this seems to be a bad thing and can't have helped the passing offense in 2018.

But the thing is, even with giving up way, way, way too many sacks last year, our passing offense was in the same place as it was the year before. With one of the best pass-blocking lines in college football in 2017, we were still dead last in in the conference in yards per attempt, QB rating, and completion %, and were 123rd nationally in explosiveness.

Weird.

Part of the difference in pass blocking could be making the move from Aeris to Kylin.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Part of the difference in pass blocking could be making the move from Aeris to Kylin.

Wasn't most of the pass blocking done under Mullen a part of play action passes and for the first time in a while, these guys are having to learn true drop-back passing blocking? Different steps and approach all together. I think this came out after the Kentucky game if I remember correctly.

[BrunswickDawg]

Comparing Joe's PSU vs. Joe's MSU play numbers got me thinking - I hadn't looked closely at '16 and '17 PSU stats to see if anything interesting popped out.
For all the discussion of Barkley being a tremendous talent, I found the following interesting:

In 2016, Barkley ran for 1,496 yards. Pretty eye popping. But, he was feast or famine. He only rushed for 100 or more in 5 games - Kent St (105), Maryland (202!), Purdue (207!), Iowa (167), and USC (194). 875 yards in 5 games is ridiculous production. Kent State was 114 in rushing D, Maryland was 85, Purdue 71, Iowa 12, and USC 67. Barkley got shut down by Michigan State gaining 14 yards. MSU was the #1 rushing D in the country. Michigan (#23) held him to 59; Minnesota (78) held him to 63; Indiana (83) to 58. McSorley was ineffective in running in those games as well, with the exception of Minnesota (73 yards for McSorley). So a real mixed bag of defensive quality and performance.

The difference is, PSU could generate enough in the passing game to make up for those games that Barkley and their running game got shut down. Against Michigan, McSorley was 16/27, 121y, 1 TD, 1 INT; Minnesota 19/41 for 335 and 1 TD; Indiana 16/30 for 332 2TD/2INT; and MSU 17/23 for 376 and 4TDs.

Interestingly, 2017 saw a similar trend. Barkley only had 5 games with 100 or more yards - Akron (173), Iowa (211), Michigan (108), Nebraska (158) and Washington (137) - for 787 of his 1271 rushing yards. McSorley carried them much more in the passing game in '17.

If you consider Nick our lead RB - he was more consistent than Barkley either year. Nick had 7 games over 100 yards, 2 over 80, and was shut down in 3 (UK, UF and Bama - all far superior defenses to the teams not named MSU that shut down Barkley in '16). The difference was Nick the QB. For whatever reason, if you shut down Nick the RB, Nick the QB got shut down too. The exception to that was LSU - who Nick ran well against but was victimized by INTs.

Our rushing production of 223 ypg was far superior to PSU in '16 (175 ypg) or '17 (170 ypg). Even if you narrow that down to conference games only, you have MSU at 187 ypg and PSU at 186 ypg ('16) and 161 ypg ('17).

I don't know what conclusion to draw from this - other than maybe we needed a QB who could throw consistently.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Wasn't most of the pass blocking done under Mullen a part of play action passes and for the first time in a while, these guys are having to learn true drop-back passing blocking? Different steps and approach all together. I think this came out after the Kentucky game if I remember correctly.

I think in an RPO system, blocking schemes are meant to allow flexibility so that the QB could throw, run, or hand the ball off depending upon what his keys tell him. From what little I've read on the subject, I think that often means that the OL is doing something that looks like -- or is -- run blocking. If that's the case and your QB isn't making quick decisions or if your WRs aren't where they're supposed to be or both, I can see how sacks could start to pile up even if the OL is doing its job.

Mullen's blocking schemes were based on zone blocking and spread concepts. How different those concepts are to what we're doing now, RPO stuff aside, I really don't know. The run blocking in 2018 was as good or better than it was in 2016 and 2017, so whatever the problem was -- again, assuming that it was the OL's problem, not the QB's or the WRs' -- it was confined to passing situations.

[msstate7]

Any time you look at Barkley always consider the pass receiving part of his game... he caught 54 passes his junior year. He was an absolute freak

[BrunswickDawg]

Any time you look at Barkley always consider the pass receiving part of his game... he caught 54 passes his junior year. He was an absolute freak

I think that is where we all know not having a QB who could work the progressions hurt us tremendously last season. McSorley utilized that outlet to the RB to perfection. Dak was good at it too. How many times did we see Kylin wide open while Nick was locked in elsewhere on a covered WR? And that's with Kylin being our #2 overall in total receptions (22) and tied for team lead in receiving TD's. RB's combining for 36 catches isn't terrible, and I bet goes up this season.

If I were to pin 1 thing I'd like to see Joe change in his system it's utilizing a wider variety of player types. Mullen was very good at utilizing "tweeners" in the running and passing game (Holloway not up the middle, Mixon, Lewis, Dear, etc.) I think you have to do that in SEC due to the overall speed of the game. As much as Joe preaches breaking big plays - not knowing if a guy like Dear is going to be an RB or a WR could add a big dimension in an RPO system.