Post-spring ESPN power ranking, latest Vegas o/u win totals

[DancingRabbit]

25th in the power ranking, o/u 8 wins on Draft king

No surprises I guess.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26642052/post-spring-college-football-power-rankings

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26664203/projected-win-totals-2019-college-football-season

[RiverCityDawg]

Interesting that the money line favorite is over 8 wins with so many message board posters thinking 8 is the absolute ceiling with 6 or 7 being more likely.

[msstate7]

Interesting that the money line favorite is over 8 wins with so many message board posters thinking 8 is the absolute ceiling with 6 or 7 being more likely.

If you were given a free $50,000 bet to place on the o/u at 8 wins, would you bet the over? Under on us at 8 is a absolute gift line... we certainly could push, but I don't think there's any way we get to 9

[MetEdDawg]

My question is for those who say the absolute best we can do is 7-5, are they going and dropping money on that line?

[Jarius]

If you were given a free $50,000 bet to place on the o/u at 8 wins, would you bet the over? Under on us at 8 is a absolute gift line... we certainly could push, but I don't think there's any way we get to 9

This board thought the same thing last year about the over 8.5 on our line. There is as good of a chance we go over as we go under. There are plenty of games we will be slight underdogs in that we can win. The only unwinnable game on our schedule is Alabama. Depends on injuries and how our qb play is between 7 and 9 or even 10 wins.

[msstate7]

My question is for those who say the absolute best we can do is 7-5, are they going and dropping money on that line?

Absolutely. Like I said, 8 wins is ceiling imo, so no way I lose. If we do win 9, I'll be more than happy to lose that bet

[MetEdDawg]

Absolutely. Like I said, 8 wins is ceiling imo, so no way I lose. If we do win 9, I'll be more than happy to lose that bet

Would getting Stevens change your opinion?

I personally think we have chances of beating OM, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn. The rest are probably nots although we always play TAMU very well.

Would a QB that knows the Moorhead system change your willingness to bet that line?

[msstate7]

Would getting Stevens change your opinion?

I personally think we have chances of beating OM, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn. The rest are probably nots although we always play TAMU very well.

Would a QB that knows the Moorhead system change your willingness to bet that line?

I really don't know. I want Stevens, but I'm not sure he changes us from 6-8 to more than 8. Hopefully he is

[Tbonewannabe]

The bottom line is that people thinking we win less than 7 think Moorhead is a bust and last year was the best his offense will do. So with the offense that struggled in 4 games against top 25 defenses mostly on the road and a defense that lost 3 first round picks, you figure 6 wins.

I am waiting to see if we can get and/or develop a QB with WRs that can run the offense that put Moorhead up there as best offensive coordinator in college football the last few years.

[Dawgfan77]

Would getting Stevens change your opinion?

I personally think we have chances of beating OM, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn. The rest are probably nots although we always play TAMU very well.

Would a QB that knows the Moorhead system change your willingness to bet that line?
With Key we are 5-7 win team. With Stevens we are a 7-8 win team.

[RiverCityDawg]

If you were given a free $50,000 bet to place on the o/u at 8 wins, would you bet the over? Under on us at 8 is a absolute gift line... we certainly could push, but I don't think there's any way we get to 9

I think 9 is the ceiling, but 7 is more likely than 9, so I would go with the under. 8 seems like the right number to be but it's interesting that the money line is on us to go over. As a side note I think 9 is more likely than 6 with this schedule.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Most people here know but the "money line" of 8 games is NOT the projected win total, it's the projected "have of betters will bet the over, the other half the under" so Vegas can make money. So teams with big stupid and rich fanbases will usually have higher than their team deserves win projection, and teams the masses assume will be bad get lower than they should get. We've had 8+ win seasons 4 of the last 5 seasons and the general CFB population is still high on Moorhead, so we are finally getting assumed to be decent, which is nice. But te Vegas O/U is NOT the same as a computer projected W/L total, it's a projection of what Vegas thinks will split the betting 50/50

For the record, I'd go under. D will have 1 contributor returning between the S and DT, WRs still suck, QB hasn't proven anything, and Moorhead still hasn't shown be he can craft a nice run game. We might win 8, but 9 is less likely than 7 to me. I got: 4 OOC, Kentucky at home, Arky on the road, and OM at home. We might win @TN, but after that we'd have to win @ A&M AND not drop any of the other games mentioned if we want to get to 9. So 7 is more likely than 9 imo, though I think 8 is very likely

And if I were given 50k for betting, I'd "bet" that a house in my area will maintain it's value long term and bypass a couple years of down payment saving lol

[Tbonewannabe]

Most people here know but the "money line" of 8 games is NOT the projected win total, it's the projected "have of betters will bet the over, the other half the under" so Vegas can make money. So teams with big stupid and rich fanbases will usually have higher than their team deserves win projection, and teams the masses assume will be bad get lower than they should get. We've had 8+ win seasons 4 of the last 5 seasons and the general CFB population is still high on Moorhead, so we are finally getting assumed to be decent, which is nice. But te Vegas O/U is NOT the same as a computer projected W/L total, it's a projection of what Vegas thinks will split the betting 50/50

For the record, I'd go under. D will have 1 contributor returning between the S and DT, WRs still suck, QB hasn't proven anything, and Moorhead still hasn't shown be he can craft a nice run game. We might win 8, but 9 is less likely than 7 to me. I got: 4 OOC, Kentucky at home, Arky on the road, and OM at home. We might win @TN, but after that we'd have to win @ A&M AND not drop any of the other games mentioned if we want to get to 9. So 7 is more likely than 9 imo, though I think 8 is very likely

And if I were given 50k for betting, I'd "bet" that a house in my area will maintain it's value long term and bypass a couple years of down payment saving lol

And this has traditionally been when have dropped to 6-7 wins over the last decade. Auburn and A&M on the road and we get Bama (sure loss) and LSU which has been almost a sure loss. No game on the road is a gimmee so when you get the toss up games on the road then we tend to drop at least one of those.

[Jarius]

Most people here know but the "money line" of 8 games is NOT the projected win total, it's the projected "have of betters will bet the over, the other half the under" so Vegas can make money. So teams with big stupid and rich fanbases will usually have higher than their team deserves win projection, and teams the masses assume will be bad get lower than they should get. We've had 8+ win seasons 4 of the last 5 seasons and the general CFB population is still high on Moorhead, so we are finally getting assumed to be decent, which is nice. But te Vegas O/U is NOT the same as a computer projected W/L total, it's a projection of what Vegas thinks will split the betting 50/50

For the record, I'd go under. D will have 1 contributor returning between the S and DT, WRs still suck, QB hasn't proven anything, and Moorhead still hasn't shown be he can craft a nice run game. We might win 8, but 9 is less likely than 7 to me. I got: 4 OOC, Kentucky at home, Arky on the road, and OM at home. We might win @TN, but after that we'd have to win @ A&M AND not drop any of the other games mentioned if we want to get to 9. So 7 is more likely than 9 imo, though I think 8 is very likely

And if I were given 50k for betting, I'd "bet" that a house in my area will maintain it's value long term and bypass a couple years of down payment saving lol

Vegas pays more attention to who is putting money where than how much is on each side. Look at oddshark and see what % of the public is on games. The line will have 80 or 90 % of money on one side and not move a lot of times.

[RougeDawg]

Interesting that the money line favorite is over 8 wins with so many message board posters thinking 8 is the absolute ceiling with 6 or 7 being more likely.

A box of rocks on the sidelines could win 8 games this year and 10 last year. It takes effort to Win any less.

[Goldendawg]

A box of rocks on the sidelines could win 8 games this year and 10 last year. It takes effort to Win any less.

Agree 100%. If we only win 6 in '19, our program is really taking a big step back.

[Tbonewannabe]

A box of rocks on the sidelines could win 8 games this year and 10 last year. It takes effort to Win any less.

I guess UF should have gotten a box of rocks in 2017 then. McE won the SEC East two years in a row then shit the bed. Mullen then takes over that talent and wins 10 games again.

[Coach007]

25th in the power ranking, o/u 8 wins on Draft king

No surprises I guess.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26642052/post-spring-college-football-power-rankings

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26664203/projected-win-totals-2019-college-football-season

Where can I bet on that....

[DancingRabbit]

Where can I bet on that....

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/1963735

[Bothrops]

7 is the ceiling, maybe 8 with a really nice surprise at qb.

[maroonmania]

7 is the ceiling, maybe 8 with a really nice surprise at qb.

IMO 8 wins is the ceiling. 4 OOC games and Ark, OM, KY and TN are all very doable even without much of a surprise at QB. I don't see us winning any of the other 4 unless our offense is significantly better than we are thinking it will be.

[R2Dawg]

IMO 8 wins is the ceiling. 4 OOC games and Ark, OM, KY and TN are all very doable even without much of a surprise at QB. I don't see us winning any of the other 4 unless our offense is significantly better than we are thinking it will be.

Agree 7-8 is reasonable expectation. If our O can improve, I could see sneaking out 2 more wins.