Severe Weather threat 4/18/19

[EngDawg]

SPC has a day 4 threat of 15% across much of the mid south. What say you guys?

[confucius say]

Everybody to the bin612!

[CadaverDawg]

Everybody to the bin612!

Have some rep. I laughed

[Choctaw Dawg]

The chainsaw is already dull from Saturday, better get to sharpening again....

[ScoobaDawg]

Definitely something to watch. SVD has mentioned it several times. For day 3, They have an Enhanced risk over a much of east texas, parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Slight risk extends all the way up to Iowa and Illinois.
I know it's something I will be watching closely.

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Day 4 has the 15% outlook. Keep an eye out for what that changes to tomorrow.

[starkvegasdawg]

As of right now, my belief is this will be more of a squall line event so main threats will be straight line winds and hail. However, it does look like it will contain at least some tornado threat.

[confucius say]

Baseball will be in ark in the enhanced part unh?

[ScoobaDawg]

Baseball will be in ark in the enhanced part unh?


No.. that will be cleared out by friday. That image is for Wed 7am-Thur 7am.

[timotheus]

gonna be a nice 3 days in Fayetteville

[confucius say]

No.. that will be cleared out by friday. That image is for Wed 7am-Thur 7am.

We will be there Wednesday. Play Thursday.

[BuckyIsAB****]

2018 and so far in 19 has been the wettest days of my life. And none of you take this post down the gutter either haha

[timotheus]

I hear ya Bucky..... he said wet

[ScoobaDawg]

We will be there Wednesday. Play Thursday.

Ah yea forgot it's th-fr-sat. either way the severe weather will move out before game time.

But still no Fayetville is not in the enhanced area

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4N0bApW0AAUZnH.jpg

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest spc discussion looks to make this a predominantly wind/hail event. They did mention the possibility of a threat upgrade in central and south MS which may carry a slight tornado increase, but right now this is looking to be a tamer system than this weekend.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Latest spc discussion looks to make this a predominantly wind/hail event. They did mention the possibility of a threat upgrade in central and south MS which may carry a slight tornado increase, but right now this is looking to be a tamer system than this weekend.

What's Birmingham looking like? Got to go for Easter.

[KOdawg1]

I should've been a meteorologist. I've always been fascinated with weather. Thanks for all of the info guys

[starkvegasdawg]

What's Birmingham looking like? Got to go for Easter.

Should be moved out Thursday night into Friday morning and leaving a picture perfect Easter weekend.

[ScoobaDawg]

What's Birmingham looking like? Got to go for Easter.
Look like when? rain clears out by friday at noon and 68/47 on sat 79 / 54 on sun.. beautiful weather

[BeastMan]

Thanks all you weather guys. I love these threads

[iPat09]

I should've been a meteorologist. I've always been fascinated with weather. Thanks for all of the info guys

When I decided to change to something other than music, I thought about meteorology. Then I saw I would have to take 3 semesters of calculus, so I said never mind. Ended up in Communication instead!

[Coach007]

Thanks all you weather guys. I love these threads

Some of the most informative and helpful on the entire board.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has done a rare special day 3 update. All of central and south MS now under an enhanced risk. While there's still some uncertainty on storm mode, a well defined squall line is expected to march across the state with a wind/hail threat. However, there is a chance of discrete supercells out ahead of the line and there is enough instability and shear to produce some tornadoes...a couple of which could be strong.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Should be moved out Thursday night into Friday morning and leaving a picture perfect Easter weekend.


Look like when? rain clears out by friday at noon and 68/47 on sat 79 / 54 on sun.. beautiful weather

https://media2.giphy.com/media/3o7abKwotvvBuxtZAI/giphy.gif

[RocketDawg]

Should be moved out Thursday night into Friday morning and leaving a picture perfect Easter weekend.

And then it'll be time for another round mid-to-late week after Easter (my prediction based on nothing but trends). It's April, our big severe weather month, and continues into May in the northern areas.

[ScoobaDawg]

This afternoon places to watch... I know I'm watching things closely for my area.
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Day 2 has now bumped almost all of Louisiana, MS and AL into the Enhanced sector.
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[PMDawg]

Well, it's now Day 2, and the latest update has some stronger wording in it. Also mentions they are considering moving the area to "Moderate", but will wait until the 1-day to decide (due to some uncertainties in how widespread the rain is in the morning round).

....LA...MS...AL...Western FL Panhandle...
Storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning along the cold
front/outflow, from southern AR into eastern TX. Some of these
storms could produce strong wind gusts or marginal hail.

Later in the day, a strong surge of deeper low-level moisture will
spread across LA and MS, coincident with 850 mb winds increasing to
over 50 kt. Both instability and shear will increase, and conditions
will become favorable for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast
soundings indicate effective SRH on the order of 300-400 m2/s2
across the entire area. Thus these midday storms may be severe with
a few tornadoes possible should they remain cellular.

Meanwhile, the activity along the cold front is expected to
intensify as it encounters this stronger instability into central
and eastern LA, and continuing across central and eastern MS during
the day. By late afternoon, an intense QLCS is forecast, likely
absorbing the earlier activity and producing corridors of
destructive winds and tornadoes. The most intense activity may also
spread into western Alabama, with a gradual decrease in overall
intensity overnight across eastern AL and into FL.

Early convection due to warm advection in the 15-18Z period lends
some uncertainty as to air mass quality for latter-day convection
with the front. If the rain is too widespread across LA and southern
MS, it could temper instability for the expected QLCS. On the other
hand, if the midday activity remains more cellular, several
tornadoes could occur. As such, will defer possible upgrade to
Moderate Risk to upcoming Day 1 updates.

There - took me quite a few tries to get this right.

[RocketDawg]

Something I've wondered for a while ... why do they talk about Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, etc. Why not just say Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday or whatever the day of the week is? There seems to be no logical reason for the way it's done now.

They finally changed the weather discussion and many other things away from all caps (because the old Teletypes only printed in capital letters), and that change makes for much better readability.

[ScoobaDawg]

Something I've wondered for a while ... why do they talk about Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, etc. Why not just say Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday or whatever the day of the week is? There seems to be no logical reason for the way it's done now.

They finally changed the weather discussion and many other things away from all caps (because the old Teletypes only printed in capital letters), and that change makes for much better readability.

Because weather models and predictions are based upon Zulu time (CST is -5 hours) The SPC Day 1 is usually valid from 7pm to 7am the next day.

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYtime.php

[RocketDawg]

Because weather models and predictions are based upon Zulu time (CST is -5 hours) The SPC Day 1 is usually valid from 7pm to 7am the next day.

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYtime.php

OK, that makes sense. But they might be ahead of the game if they changed their statements to Eastern time, which is sort of the basis for the US.

[RocketDawg]

There are a few funnel clouds and possible tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma now. Looks like the cap is about to break. The funnel cloud in Oklahoma might be the first tornado of the year for the state if it touches down.

[DownwardDawg]

So, will this be as bad as the last one for Mississippi? Just wondering with the latest information.

[RocketDawg]

There are a few funnel clouds and possible tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma now. Looks like the cap is about to break. The funnel cloud in Oklahoma might be the first tornado of the year for the state if it touches down.

Oklahoma did have a touchdown, so it's their first tornado of the year. Happened in Shadduck in the western part of the state.

[starkvegasdawg]

So, will this be as bad as the last one for Mississippi? Just wondering with the latest information.

Up until this afternoon I would have said no, but if there is now a chance we could have a pretty significant event tomorrow. Still not convinced as bad as last one, though. Spc updates again around 1:00am. I'll anxiously be waiting to see if they go mod and read the discussion.

[Bodawg]

Many of the schools here in south Ms are letting out early in advance of the possible severe weather outbreak.

[starkvegasdawg]

Many of the schools here in south Ms are letting out early in advance of the possible severe weather outbreak.

There are some letting out this way, too. I know Choctaw is dismissing early.

[starkvegasdawg]

Going go wait until the next round of info comes in, but initial chase target tomorrow looks to start in south MS and then work my way back north. Initial target area somewhere between Brookhaven and Collins as things look now.

[ScoobaDawg]

Storms are firing along the dryline now that the cap has eroded. Line of storms from just west of Fort worth down to mexico. Large hail the biggest threat but tornado is still possible
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[starkvegasdawg]

Scooba,

Are you a met major or just a weather enthusiast? Do you chase any?

[ScoobaDawg]

Scooba,

Are you a met major or just a weather enthusiast? Do you chase any?

Weather enthusiast...thus why i try not to do any hardline predictions of future events or give advice unless I pass along the source from a credited weather person.
I would like to do a skywarn class some day. and a lot would have to change for me in the vehicle dept to do any chasing.

Other than that, I browse 5-6 weather forums. scan twitter none stop for the appropriate state weather tag (#txwx, #lawx, #mswx, #alwx) for breaking reports.
I'm trying to always learn now..but as you know it's a damn complicated subject..

weather interest came to me from seriously the movie twister..and then James Spann during my time in MS/AL. When i transitioned west, I started following Steve Mccauley in dfw who explains things in detail instead of just telling you whats happening...also reading the nwsfortworth reports are very well written. Oh and then..Slickdawg is a weather nut and we talk about stuff occasionally.. he understands things way more than i do...and of course our professional weather guy..theref is a friend of mine that were in school at state together.

[ScoobaDawg]

just found the CIPS site and it's showing a 30% chance of tornado for MS...all the way north to south along i-55 then over to 59 north and continues to the bama state line around columbus. So it includes starkville, just misses meridian. Also 30% chance of hail for the whole state and most of Louisiana.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SVRprob/SVRprob.php?rundt=2019041700&fhr=F048&type=TORN&map=fill

if you flip it over to pixels it shows a 70% chance of tornado in the marshall/benton county area. (not a guarantee.. just interesting data that might help SVD decide where to chase.)

[starkvegasdawg]

Weather enthusiast...thus why i try not to do any hardline predictions of future events or give advice unless I pass along the source from a credited weather person.
I would like to do a skywarn class some day. and a lot would have to change for me in the vehicle dept to do any chasing.

Other than that, I browse 5-6 weather forums. scan twitter none stop for the appropriate state weather tag (#txwx, #lawx, #mswx, #alwx) for breaking reports.
I'm trying to always learn now..but as you know it's a damn complicated subject..

weather interest came to me from seriously the movie twister..and then James Spann during my time in MS/AL. When i transitioned west, I started following Steve Mccauley in dfw who explains things in detail instead of just telling you whats happening...also reading the nwsfortworth reports are very well written. Oh and then..Slickdawg is a weather nut and we talk about stuff occasionally.. he understands things way more than i do...and of course our professional weather guy..theref is a friend of mine that were in school at state together.

A lot like me then. I've had a total of one met class in college. Everything else has been self taught and listening to those more knowledgeable than myself on the subject. A lot of offices like Birmingham and Norman will offer spotter classes online.

[ScoobaDawg]

Well looks like a boring evening in North texas, the storms have moved into a squall line and have calmed down. Not complaining at all.. but just rolling my eyes at all the idiots calling out the weather offices.

[ScoobaDawg]

no change for ms. still enh
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[starkvegasdawg]

Sounds like they backed off some from earlier today.

[Coach007]

outlook is better! I will take it.

[confucius say]

outlook is better! I will take it.

Where you seeing that?

[ScoobaDawg]

Hatched 10% for lower ms/al. Meaning if one occurs likely will be EF2 or higher

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4by2ARWAAA8esR?format=jpg&name=small

[notsofarawaydawg]

Is this site credible? TornadoHQ (http://www.tornadohq.com/)

[BeastMan]

Metro schools letting out early. Is this thing worse than originally expected?

[parabrave]

Schools on the coast letting out early and the sh*( is starting to hit the fan in south LA along I 49 area headed east.

[PMDawg]

Metro schools letting out early. Is this thing worse than originally expected?

They keep going back and forth. As of a few minutes ago...


...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Considered an upgrade to a tornado-driven Moderate risk but have
deferred mainly due to uncertainties regarding convective mode and
lack of intense/long-track updraft helicity signal from the HREF.

[starkvegasdawg]

Staging in Brookhaven.

[confucius say]

My phone is saying tornado warning in Jackson.

[parabrave]

Staging in Brookhaven.Look to the wsw

[RocketDawg]

My phone is saying tornado warning in Jackson.

Weather Channel says it's confirmed by storm chasers. Looks like it's going through the NW side of the Jackson area. No idea how strong it is.

[Lord McBuckethead]

So when will these storms be near Starkville? based on the accuweather it seems like 5

[iPat09]

Just passed through Ridgeland. Really intense wind and heavy rain. Haven't seen the trees in the backyard dance around that much in a long time. Reports of a few cars flipped at the Walmart in Clinton.

[sscjr1]

Just passed through Ridgeland. Really intense wind and heavy rain. Haven't seen the trees in the backyard dance around that much in a long time. Reports of a few cars flipped at the Walmart in Clinton.

130 MPH winds

[Coach007]

How is the columbus area looking?

[RougeDawg]

Luckily, Everything fell apart before it got to New Orleans. We had some high winds and around 1/4? of rain.

[starkvegasdawg]

Back in Vegas. Lots of trees down south and in Philadelphia. Looked primarily like straight line wind damage.

[RocketDawg]

Back in Vegas. Lots of trees down south and in Philadelphia. Looked primarily like straight line wind damage.

TWC said a wall of a building had collapsed in Philadelphia. They didn't say what kind of building.

[Liverpooldawg]

TWC said a wall of a building had collapsed in Philadelphia. They didn't say what kind of building.

Urgent Care place.

[RocketDawg]

What's the outlook for next week? Seems we've had severe weather every 5 or 6 days lately.

It's cold here. Raining and 43 right now. I think the center of the low passed right over the top of us. Barometer bottomed out at 29.41 early this morning and the center looks like it's between here and Nashville now ... moving quite slowly.

[BuckyIsAB****]

What's the outlook for next week? Seems we've had severe weather every 5 or 6 days lately.

It's cold here. Raining and 43 right now. I think the center of the low passed right over the top of us. Barometer bottomed out at 29.41 early this morning and the center looks like it's between here and Nashville now ... moving quite slowly.

Chance of rain on Thursday not sure if itll be severe. Praying that its not. We have had enough

[West Tn Dawg]

On radar, it looks like a hurricane over West TN. It just keeps training on us, round and round!

[RocketDawg]

On radar, it looks like a hurricane over West TN. It just keeps training on us, round and round!

There's some pretty heavy rain in SW Kentucky on the back side of the low.

We've got a golf tournament starting at 8 tomorrow morning. I predict it will be miserable. WNW winds 10-15 gusting to 25 and a good chance of continuing light rain. I hope it gets canceled.

[West Tn Dawg]

There's some pretty heavy rain in SW Kentucky on the back side of the low.

We've got a golf tournament starting at 8 tomorrow morning. I predict it will be miserable. WNW winds 10-15 gusting to 25 and a good chance of continuing light rain. I hope it gets canceled.
That's basically where I'm at. NW Tn. It's been raining for two days.

[starkvegasdawg]

Chance of rain on Thursday not sure if itll be severe. Praying that its not. We have had enough

Still a lot of model discrepancy on that system. The euro is showing a severe threat, but some others are not as strong. Still a wait and see.

[Cooterpoot]

Twice in the last week, a tornado has been within a mile of me. I don’t know if I’m lucky or God is trying tell me something.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Twice in the last week, a tornado has been within a mile of me. I don’t know if I’m lucky or God is trying tell me something.

Idk if the one on Thursday was within a mile of me but the one in Stark was really close. Wayyy too close for me