SEC beisball standings at the halfway point

[Coach34]

West:

1. LSU 13-2
2. UPig 9-6
3. State 8-7
4. Bammer 8-7
5, OM 7-8
6. A&M 6-9
7. Auburn 5-10

East:

1. Vandy 14-1
2. Florida 8-7
3. SC 8-7
4. Kentucky 7-8
5. Tenn 5-10
6. Mizzou 4-11
7. Georgia 3-12

[Coach34]

Next weeks series:

Auburn @ State- we should hammer these guys....they are playing better but 2/3 at worst
Fla @ Missouri- need Missouri to take 1 game
Kentucky @ South Carolina- should be a good series
LSU @ Bammer- straight up beatdown
Ole Missus @ Tennessee- Tennessee needs to take at least one
A&M @ UPig- A&M is learning about the grind of the SEC in baseball
Vandy @ Georgia- that should be a rape

[mic]

Next weeks series:

Auburn @ State- we should hammer these guys....they are playing better but 2/3 at worst
Fla @ Missouri- need Missouri to take 1 game
Kentucky @ South Carolina- should be a good series
LSU @ Bammer- straight up beatdown
Ole Missus @ Tennessee- Tennessee needs to take at least one
A&M @ UPig- A&M is learning about the grind of the SEC in baseball
Vandy @ Georgia- that should be a rape

Ark by far has the easiest schedule down the stretch..
Tenn.. Uga.. Aub.. A&M.. Uk

we are going to have to take care of our business big time and hope for some help to leap frog pass them..

[CadaverDawg]

Next weeks series:

Auburn @ State- we should hammer these guys....they are playing better but 2/3 at worst
Fla @ Missouri- need Missouri to take 1 game
Kentucky @ South Carolina- should be a good series
LSU @ Bammer- straight up beatdown
Ole Missus @ Tennessee- Tennessee needs to take at least one
A&M @ UPig- A&M is learning about the grind of the SEC in baseball
Vandy @ Georgia- that should be a rape

I think:

We sweep
Florida sweeps (but it doesn't really matter their SEC record right now, they have no chance at hosting)
USC wins 2 of 3
LSU sweeps
Ole Miss wins 2 of 3 (but watch out, Tennessee is playing decent ball right now)
Ark wins 2 of 3 (Arkansas doesn't hit well enough to blow them out, so I think A&M gets 1)
Vandy easily sweeps

[CadaverDawg]

Ark by far has the easiest schedule down the stretch..
Tenn.. Uga.. Aub.. A&M.. Uk

we are going to have to take care of our business big time and hope for some help to leap frog pass them..

You're right, but their RPI is low, so we need to at least stay a game or two from them and we could potentially still get the nod over them to host

[Coach34]

the SEC Tourney will factor in heavily also- maybe we can get a game vs them there and pick up a victory

But I think UPig is going to host. I think we are competing with SC and Kentucky for the 4th host site- and I like our chances.

[CadaverDawg]

the SEC Tourney will factor in heavily also- maybe we can get a game vs them there and pick up a victory

But I think UPig is going to host. I think we are competing with SC and Kentucky for the 4th host site- and I like our chances.

I definitely like our chances to host over USC and Kentucky, because both have some tough stretches coming up. As for Arkansas, their RPI is going to hurt them. They already have a pretty low one, but they end the year against Tennessee and Auburn, which will drop it even more I would think. They will be fine as long as they don't screw around and drop a series to a Tennessee or someone like that.

Kentucky killed themselves the past two weekends. I think they're out of the hosting discussion. Their schedule the next 4 weekends......

@ USC
@ OM
Arkansas
Vanderbilt

Insert fork.

[CadaverDawg]

By the way...

South Carolina's road may be even tougher. Check this out...

Kentucky
@ LSU
Vanderbilt
UGA (sweep)
@MSU

We actually may have more to worry about with Arkansas and Ole Miss, than anybody else due to their easy schedules from here on out. The more I dig in to these schedules, the more pissed I am that OM swept Bama....we need OM to lose to some of these weaker teams, starting with Tennessee next weekend. And then we need to win the series against them in Oxford.

[CadaverDawg]

Sorry to keep posting, but another thing of note...

Ole Miss has a stretch of 9 games in 13 days coming up on Tuesday.

Memphis
Southern Miss
@ Tennessee (3)
@ Arkansas State
Kentucky (3)

That's a tough stretch for a team with some pitching depth issues. And they do not need to drop a few midweek games trying to save their pitching for the weekends. This could be a key stretch for them. They really need to win 6-7 out of those 9 games if they want to stay in position.

[Coach34]

True about UPig's RPI, but they will likely have 20 or more SEC wins- and that should get them a host site

[Coach34]

Sorry to keep posting, but another thing of note....

as long as your bringing good info- have at it

[601Dawg]

the SEC Tourney will factor in heavily also- maybe we can get a game vs them there and pick up a victory

But I think UPig is going to host. I think we are competing with SC and Kentucky for the 4th host site- and I like our chances.

Gonna be hard for Arkansas to host with an RPI as high as theirs is and playing Tennessee, UGA, and Auburn won't help their RPI at all. If they have less than 20 SEC wins and screw up and lose a couple games they shouldn't they will be on the bubble for hosting.

We can finish 16-14 in the SEC and be 40-16 and have a top ten RPI and strength of schedule and host in my opinion. Need to go 10-7 at worst in our last 17 games.

[engie]

The lowest RPI to get a host site since at least 2005(as far back as I've analyzed) is Oregon St @ #33 in 2006. They won it all that year as well.

Lowest(2nd lowest) by year:
2012: #19 Rice(#18 aTm)
2011: #29 UCLA(#24 TCU)
2010: #18 TCU(#17 Oklahoma)
2009: #23 Louisville(#19 UC Irvine)
2008: #29 Long Beach St(#18 Stanford)
2007: #22 Wichita St(#17 Arkansas)
2006: #33 Oregon St(#21 Kentucky)
2005: #27 Florida St(#23 Tennessee)

Arky is currently RPI #46. 17-13 in conference play + 2-2 in remaining noncon(2 @ Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri St) leaves them about RPI #67. If they go 20-10 and 4-0, they are still going to struggle mightily to get into the top 30 IMO.

Would they then host over, say, an 18-12 Florida team in the RPI top 10 that struggled early against the, by far, most difficult nonconference schedule in the country? Depends on the committee...

[CadaverDawg]

The lowest RPI to get a host site since at least 2005(as far back as I've analyzed) is Oregon St @ #33 in 2006. They won it all that year as well.

Lowest(2nd lowest) by year:
2012: #19 Rice(#18 aTm)
2011: #29 UCLA(#24 TCU)
2010: #18 TCU(#17 Oklahoma)
2009: #23 Louisville(#19 UC Irvine)
2008: #29 Long Beach St(#18 Stanford)
2007: #22 Wichita St(#17 Arkansas)
2006: #33 Oregon St(#21 Kentucky)
2005: #27 Florida St(#23 Tennessee)

Arky is currently RPI #46. 17-13 in conference play + 2-2 in remaining noncon(2 @ Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri St) leaves them about RPI #67. If they go 20-10 and 4-0, they are still going to struggle mightily to get into the top 30 IMO.

Would they then host over, say, an 18-12 Florida team in the RPI top 10 that struggled early against the, by far, most difficult nonconference schedule in the country? Depends on the committee...

I agree. BUT, I just can't see them giving a host site to Florida, even with a strong finish. While their early struggles have faded, you can't ignore them either. One thing about it though, they have the easiest schedule in the SEC by far the rest of the way...

@ Missouri
Tennessee
@ LSU
Auburn
@Georgia

So they could definitely reach the 18-20 win plateau. The question will be, does the committee take a couple of 20 SEC win teams with RPI or overall win total issues, over a 16-17 SEC win team in MSU with a high RPI AND good overall record? I just think we would get the nod over Florida especially, and possibly Arkansas too.

[Coach34]

I'll be surprised if UPig doesnt get to 20 SEC wins- and 20 SEC wins will get them a host I believe

[601Dawg]

the SEC Tourney will factor in heavily also- maybe we can get a game vs them there and pick up a victory

But I think UPig is going to host. I think we are competing with SC and Kentucky for the 4th host site- and I like our chances.

Gonna be hard for Arkansas to host with an RPI as high as theirs is and playing Tennessee, UGA, and Auburn won't help their RPI at all.

We can finish 16-14 in the SEC and be 40-16 and have a top ten RPI and strength of schedule and host in my opinion. Need to go 10-7 at worst in our last 17 games.

[CadaverDawg]

I'll be surprised if UPig doesnt get to 20 SEC wins- and 20 SEC wins will get them a host I believe

They would have to win 11 of 15 to make it to 20 wins. It's do-able with their schedule...but it will be tough. I don't think they make it to 20.

[RTO Dawg]

just win and it want matter what the **** the other team do......

[engie]

I agree. BUT, I just can't see them giving a host site to Florida, even with a strong finish. While their early struggles have faded, you can't ignore them either. One thing about it though, they have the easiest schedule in the SEC by far the rest of the way...

@ Missouri
Tennessee
@ LSU
Auburn
@Georgia

So they could definitely reach the 18-20 win plateau. The question will be, does the committee take a couple of 20 SEC win teams with RPI or overall win total issues, over a 16-17 SEC win team in MSU with a high RPI AND good overall record? I just think we would get the nod over Florida especially, and possibly Arkansas too.

You'd better check UF's RPI. They are somewhere around #12 right now -- and are still projected to have the #1 most difficult schedule in the country(by alot). Our predicted SOS has dropped now that Alabama is becoming what they really are and USCe is struggling...

The question isn't between us and Florida. Right now, today, we are host #3 in the SEC. The question was between Florida and Arkansas -- and then OM, UK, and USCe.

There is going to be some seriously irate fanbases if they have an RPI top 12-15 team that gets passed over in favor of an RPI #35 or 40 team with a similar overall conference record.

[CadaverDawg]

You'd better check UF's RPI. They are someuwhere around #12 right now -- and are still projected to have the #1 most difficult schedule in the country(by alot). Our predicted SOS has dropped now that Alabama is becoming what they really are and USCe is struggling...

The question isn't between us and Florida. Right now, today, we are host #3 in the SEC. The question was between Florida and Arkansas -- and then OM, UK, and USCe.

There is going to be some seriously irate fanbases if they have an RPI top 12-15 team that gets passed over in favor of an RPI #35 or 40 team with a similar overall conference record.

I know I'll be beyond pissed if we finish 16-14 with 10-12 rpi, and are passed up for a 19 -11 Arkansas team woth a rpi of 40.

[mic]

I know I'll be beyond pissed if we finish 16-14 with 10-12 rpi, and are passed up for a 19 -11 Arkansas team woth a rpi of 40.

SEC will most likely get 4 host teams.. I wouldnt rule out 5..

[ghostofjackie]

You'd better check UF's RPI. They are somewhere around #12 right now -- and are still projected to have the #1 most difficult schedule in the country(by alot). Our predicted SOS has dropped now that Alabama is becoming what they really are and USCe is struggling...

The question isn't between us and Florida. Right now, today, we are host #3 in the SEC. The question was between Florida and Arkansas -- and then OM, UK, and USCe.

There is going to be some seriously irate fanbases if they have an RPI top 12-15 team that gets passed over in favor of an RPI #35 or 40 team with a similar overall conference record.

I was browsing through some of the regional predictions (as of April 11th) and some sites had teams like Louisville, Georgia Tech, UCLA and Oklahoma hosting in favor of some higher RPI and SOS SEC teams.

All four of those schools had RPI's in the 20's (which is not bad) and SOS were all over 30. Louisville SOS is ****ing 100. I think the committee tends to pick 1-2 host sites a year just to get the geographic coverage it needs around the country. This means picking a team like Louisville who will most likely have a good record and win the Big East, over a bubble SEC team with a higher RPI and SOS. I've seen it happen in past years and it sucks. There will be 2 well deserving SEC hosts this year that get snubbed.

We need to play good enough for it not to even be a question.

[engie]

I was browsing through some of the regional predictions (as of April 11th) and some sites had teams like Louisville, Georgia Tech, UCLA and Oklahoma hosting in favor of some higher RPI and SOS SEC teams.

All four of those schools had RPI's in the 20's (which is not bad) and SOS were all over 30. Louisville SOS is ****ing 100. I think the committee tends to pick 1-2 host sites a year just to get the geographic coverage it needs around the country. This means picking a team like Louisville who will most likely have a good record and win the Big East, over a bubble SEC team with a higher RPI and SOS. I've seen it happen in past years and it sucks. There will be 2 well deserving SEC hosts this year that get snubbed.

We need to play good enough for it not to even be a question.

The SEC is going to get 4 hosts 90% of the time -- or more precisely, the SEC and ACC are going to share somewhere between 7 and 9 almost every season. Other SEC teams are the teams we're competing with for a host site -- not the other teams around the country that are basically assured to get a historically preset number of host spots. They can't go strictly by RPI or it would be almost nothing but SEC, ACC, PAC12...

3-5 west coast, 3-5 SEC, 3-5 ACC, 1-2 B1G/Big East, 1-2 teams from Texas, 1-2 overachieving midmajor or geographic outlier

Here's why there will be several teams hosting with RPI in the 20s or 30s this year(bolded are teams that I think are hosts as of today):
1) Oregon St - Pac12 #1(west coast #1)
2) Vandy - SEC #1
3) North Carolina - ACC #1
4) LSU - SEC #2
5) Oregon - Pac12 #2(west coast #2)
6) Florida St - ACC #2
7) Virginia - ACC #3
8) Mississippi State - SEC #3
9) Arizona St - Pac 12 #3(west coast #3)
10) Cal State Fullerton - BigWest(west coast #4)
11) Indiana - B1G #1 - geographic outlier
12) Florida - SEC #4
13) Virginia Tech - ACC #4
14) Ole Miss - SEC #5
15) Miami - ACC #5
16) South Alabama - midmajor outlier
17) Georgia Tech - ACC #6
18) Clemson - ACC #7
19) Mercer - midmajor outlier #2
20) NC State - ACC #8
21) South Carolina - SEC #6
22) Oklahoma - Big12 #1(gets a slot normally reserved for a Texas team)
23) UCLA - Pac 12 #4(west coast #5)
24) Louisville - Big East #1
25) Kentucky - SEC #7
26) Notre Dame - Big East #2
46) Arkansas - LOT of RPI work to do

If you set the field strictly on RPI, it would leave out 12 conference champions.

The field would look like this:
SEC - 11(almost 12)
ACC - 11
Big12 - 5
BigEast - 5
Sun Belt - 5
Pac12 - 4
Big West - 3
Colonial - 3
B1G - 3
Southland - 2
Atl Sun - 2
Big South - 2
West Coast - 2
A10 - 1
CUSA - 1
Missouri Valley - 1
Mountain West - 1
Ohio Valley - 1
Southern - 1

[CadaverDawg]

Engie, it looks like our RPI is going to stay pretty high. With that being said, what would it take to be a National Seed? I know that's a stretch, but is it even possible that they would allow 3 SEC National Seeds? Because LSU and Vandy are locks barring a collapse, I would think. Could the #3 SEC school sneak in to a National spot with a RPI as high as ours, if say, we beat Vandy 2 out of 3 at their place and end up with 17-18 SEC wins?

Just curious what you thought

[engie]

Engie, it looks like our RPI is going to stay pretty high. With that being said, what would it take to be a National Seed? I know that's a stretch, but is it even possible that they would allow 3 SEC National Seeds? Because LSU and Vandy are locks barring a collapse, I would think. Could the #3 SEC school sneak in to a National spot with a RPI as high as ours, if say, we beat Vandy 2 out of 3 at their place and end up with 17-18 SEC wins?

Just curious what you thought

I don't think it's feasible for us -- I think we've lost too many series already. If it were to happen, we'd need to damn near win out IMO. I couldn't see it happening with anything less than 20 SEC wins. We'd need to establish ourselves as one of the absolute elite teams in the country, which I don't think we can do at this point...

I'll look at my numbers and give you a more exact answer...

[CadaverDawg]

I don't think it's feasible for us -- I think we've lost too many series already. If it were to happen, we'd need to damn near win out IMO. I couldn't see it happening with anything less than 20 SEC wins. We'd need to establish ourselves as one of the absolute elite teams in the country, which I don't think we can do at this point...

I'll look at my numbers and give you a more exact answer...

I kinda figured that.

I could see us winning every series except Vandy from here on out if we get hot and stay hot, so I was curious to what a Vandy series win would do. Losing the LSU and Central Arkansas series at home really hurt us.

ETA: If we finished 18-12 in conference, we could potentially be 42-14 heading into the SEC tourney. A lot of what if's, but I wonder if that would at least put us in National Seed discussion.

[engie]

A conference has only had 3 4x since 2005....

SEC had 3 last yr: RPI #1 Florida 47-20(18-12), #9 South Carolina 49-20(18-11), #7 LSU 47-18(19-11)

SEC and ACC had 3 in 2011: RPI #4 Vanderbilt 54-12(22-8), #6 South Carolina 55-14(22-8), #1 Florida 53-19(22-8) and #2 Virginia 56-12(22-8), #5 FSU 46-19(19-11), #3 North Carolina 51-16(20-10). Worth noting that Georgia Tech got a host but not national seed with an RPI of #8 and record of 42-21(22-8) -- so RPI and total wins were valued over conference standings.

ACC had 3 in 2008: RPI #1 Miami 53-11(23-5), #2 North Carolina 54-14(22-7), #3 FSU 54-14(24-6). Georgia Tech got left out with an RPI of #7(didn't host at all) and record of 41-21(16-14). NC State got the ACC's 4th host spot with an RPI of #14 and record of 42-22(18-11). Obviously on this particular year, they valued conference standing over RPI.

Looking at all this, I don't think we can even talk about it at less than 18-12 in the SEC -- and it will probably take more than that. We'll almost certainly need to be within 2-3 games of LSU and Vandy, which is going to be very, very unlikely IMO...

[CadaverDawg]

Good numbers, thanks.

Those were some sick win totals for the top 3 SEC teams in 2011.

[engie]

Best 3 teams in the country... Hence why no team beat them in the postseason besides each other...

[biscuit]

If we take care of our business, we will be alright.

[bulldogcountry1]

Now that we have 14 teams in the conference, the committee should give us another host slot. Getting only 4 this year would be a travesty. A&M is a prime example. They have made 6 straight regionals and hosted 4 of them. Now, they will finish int he bottom half of the SEC.

[CadaverDawg]

Now that we have 14 teams in the conference, the committee should give us another host slot. Getting only 4 this year would be a travesty. A&M is a prime example. They have made 6 straight regionals and hosted 4 of them. Now, they will finish int he bottom half of the SEC.

Excellent point, bulldogcountry.

I just glanced back at A&M's previous years, and they have been a mainstay in Regionals over the past 6-7 years. Often winning 40+ games. Now look at them once they hit the SEC.

Their baseball team is doing what I expected their football team to do when joining the SEC. But who knew there'd be a guy they call "Johnny Football"

[Spider-Man]

If we gets to 40 wins before the SEC tournament starts. I think we are hosting.

[engie]

Now that we have 14 teams in the conference, the committee should give us another host slot. Getting only 4 this year would be a travesty. A&M is a prime example. They have made 6 straight regionals and hosted 4 of them. Now, they will finish int he bottom half of the SEC.

aTm lost 2 first-round players last year -- a pitcher and outfielder as well as a 5th rounder. They lost 8 total players in the draft. It was widely known that this would be a major rebuilding year for them even before the season started...

I agree that they need to look at giving us an additional host when it's warranted -- but aTm and Mizzou being added are going to do nothing to push that envelope this year. Now, if UNC and Virginia or Va Tech are eventually added, then it is absolutely going to be a must-happen...

If anyone gets 5 this year, it will be the ACC IMO. For the second straight year, they have the superior conference RPI to us... Last year, that was the reason they took Miami as the ACC's 5th over Kentucky as the SEC's 4th -- which, of course, totally blew up in their faces in Coral Gables...