Severe weather looking possible Saturday

[starkvegasdawg]

The biggest question is how far north will the unstable air make it. The wind fields will be conducive for a highly sheared atmosphere so storms that develop should have no trouble developing a rotating updraft. As of right now the SPC has placed a large area under a slight risk of severe weather Saturday, but as the event near that will almost be guaranteed to be upgraded somewhere, and right now I'd place my money on that somewhere being in LA, AR, and MS. Still a few days out so s lot can change, but this one could be interesting if it all comes together.

https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/small2.png?1826ac072419e5f055a52d6b748a3122

[MetEdDawg]

The fact they have this high a severe factor 5 days out is not good. Models plus the wordings from some of the area NWS offices don't sound very good. They feel pretty confident in this coming together.

My wife and I were planning on coming over for the Maine game Saturday. Probably going to cancel those plans unless something changes over the next 72 to decrease the severe potential. The most likely scenario is enhancement of the severe potential as we get closer to the event.

[Ari Gold]

How does Friday look?

[starkvegasdawg]

How does Friday look?

Friday looks ok. Right now around a 50% of rain but nothing severe at this time.

[Ari Gold]

Friday looks ok. Right now around a 50% of rain but nothing severe at this time.

Good deal

[notsofarawaydawg]

Friday looks ok. Right now around a 50% of rain but nothing severe at this time.

Can't tell you and the others enough how much I appreciate your sharing these updates with us in advance. Helps out a lot. Preparedness is so important and after the last tornado in Columbus I can say that I'll be in my interior closet much sooner after experiencing flying glass in my house. I have no damage though compared to those in other parts of Columbus who lost everything. The flood and tornado have done a lot of damage to this area.

[MadDawg]

You should just pin this freaking post to the top of the board. Apparently EVERY SATURDAY will have the potential for bad weather. damnit.....

[bulldogcountry1]

Your sig gif perfectly represents my feelings towards Mother Nature right now.

[starkvegasdawg]

Mid range models are now picking up this system. To me, it looks like this storm may peak in the east AR / west MS region and then possibly weaken as it pushes east. The low is forecast to be pulling northeast and as it does it will take the best forcing with it. The higher res mid range models will come into play tomorrow and give an even better look.

[I seen it dawg]

Keep us updated. Thanks

[starkvegasdawg]

Keep us updated. Thanks

The latest model runs just came in and look like garbage for this area. Be interesting to see if this is a one run anomaly or a trend.

[BuckyIsAB****]

The latest model runs just came in and look like garbage for this area. Be interesting to see if this is a one run anomaly or a trend.

So is that good or bad

[starkvegasdawg]

So is that good or bad

If you don't want to see severe weather it's good. Just waiting to see if a trend or a one off model run. Spc should be releasing their day 3 outlook soon. I'm interested to get their latest thinking.

[MetEdDawg]

SPC came in with a blanket slight risk for most of MS, most of AL, the western half of TN, and all of Arkansas.

Discussion mentioned uncertainty but that they will watch the evolution of it to see whether enhancing the risk would be something they would do.

Biggest area of concern listed by the SPC for more destabilization is the MS delta, across northern MS, and into western TN and NW AL.

For those that want to read the Day 3 SPC discussion here's the link: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm far from a certified meteorologist, but I'm starting to think this may peak back in AR. The 6:00pm model runs I was referencing last night had it peaking back in west AR. The overnight run shifted it back to the east some into more south central AR. If I were to pick a target area right now it would be a triangle from Texarkana to Little Rock, to Crossett for the worst weather this weekend.

[Liverpooldawg]

So is that good or bad

It's good for most people.

[I seen it dawg]

Lol you can't just see can you

[I seen it dawg]

How we looking for golf Friday am, baseball fri and sat?

[basedog]

How we looking for golf Friday am, baseball fri and sat?

You might want a Caddie to hold your umbrella****

[starkvegasdawg]

Rain Friday morning and then Saturday afternoon and Saturday night more rain.

[I seen it dawg]

****ing awesome

[dantheman4248]

Doubleheader Friday at 3. Final game noon Sunday.

[Jack Lambert]

Is Maine even worth a crap?

[sleepy dawg]

Is Maine even worth a crap?

Although they've played a pretty good schedule, they haven't won a game. We'd probably be better off from an RPI perspective for this game to just not happen, but only time will tell.

[BuckyIsAB****]

If you don't want to see severe weather it's good. Just waiting to see if a trend or a one off model run. Spc should be releasing their day 3 outlook soon. I'm interested to get their latest thinking.

I want nothing to do with severe weather

[dantheman4248]

Is Maine even worth a crap?

As a Mississippi State fan, we should not ever ask that question.

[Liverpooldawg]

Is Maine even worth a crap?

They are 0-10. That being said back in the early 90's we played in a Regional, UP THERE.

[starkvegasdawg]

Most of north and central MS upgraded to an enhanced risk of severe weather Saturday for wind and tornadoes. A few tornadoes could be strong. Timeframe looking mid morning to mid afternoon at this time.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1HsFJPVAAAMAI2.jpg

[ScoobaDawg]

1103998503947243520

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest info from SPC shifting almost all of enhanced risk out of MS.

[ScoobaDawg]

1104075825232732161

[BuckyIsAB****]

Thank God

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm still not convinced they don't expand it back. Don't go to sleep on this system just yet.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest SPC has northeast MS under enhanced risk. Don't go to sleep on this. Going to be a boom or bust system. Lot of conditional ingredients which is why models are struggling so badly. But if they come together then north MS could see it.

[West Tn Dawg]

Gee, thanks for pushing it up here on us! :^)

[parabrave]

About to get stormy in the delta. Line coming across the river exp around the 3 state line, Memphis area.