New D1 Baseball Poll

[StarkVegasSteve]

#7 in the new D1 poll. LSU fell from #2 to #13 and TTU fell from #3 to #14.

Take care of business this week and there's a chance it could be a Top 5 matchup in Gainesville to start SEC play

[MetEdDawg]

I said last night we should be no lower than #7. Glad that's how it turned out because we are really really good.

[Jack Lambert]

Is Texas that good or was LSU over rated?

[ShotgunDawg]

Is Texas that good or was LSU over rated?

Texas is barely a top 20 team, if that, but the games were at Texas & it was Texas' Super Bowl.

I think LSU is still pretty good, but they were overrated where they were ranked. They are about right now at 13.

It's baseball, if LSU & Texas played 100 times, LSU would probably win 60-65 of those games, but at Texas, early in the season, they got their asses kicked.

[MetEdDawg]

LSU I think is not nearly as good a team as they usually are. They don't have the starting pitching they normally do which has really hurt them so far. Giving up too many runs to teams that shouldn't be scoring on them.

They have given up more than 3 runs in every single game they've played. That includes 7 to UL Monroe, 5 to both Army and Air Force, 6 and 8 to Bryant, then 8, 8, and 7 to Texas. And those are all weekend games, so none of those are mid week. So their best pitchers are giving up those runs.

They gave up more runs to Texas than we've given up all season.

[PMDawg]

#7 in the new D1 poll. LSU fell from #2 to #13 and TTU fell from #3 to #14.

Take care of business this week and there's a chance it could be a Top 5 matchup in Gainesville to start SEC play

Wait, please tell me that Florida is not STILL top 5....

ETA: The SEC East is LOADED this year. Vandy #1, Florida and Georgia top 10 (even though Florida may not belong there at the moment), and then Tennessee is probably a lot better than they are currently given credit for. I don't know that they're ready to compete with Vandy, but they are definitely in the mix with these other 3 teams. They may actually have better pitching than us. If you haven't already, go look at their team pitching stats. They have already posted SIX shutouts on the year. For comparison, we have posted 2. Yes, they have played worse competition, but still - 6 shutouts already? That's nuts.

[smootness]

Wait, please tell me that Florida is not STILL top 5....

ETA: The SEC East is LOADED this year. Vandy #1, Florida and Georgia top 10 (even though Florida may not belong there at the moment), and then Tennessee is probably a lot better than they are currently given credit for. I don't know that they're ready to compete with Vandy, but they are definitely in the mix with these other 3 teams. They may actually have better pitching than us. If you haven't already, go look at their team pitching stats. They have already posted SIX shutouts on the year. For comparison, we have posted 2. Yes, they have played worse competition, but still - 6 shutouts already? That's nuts.

They sneaked into the top 25 this week.

[PMDawg]

They sneaked into the top 25 this week.

Yes, I know. #25 is ridiculous for them. They are what, 12-0?

[TNDawg35]

Tennessee is like KY usually is. They play a stupid easy early schedule, win them all, get a ranking that says they are better than what they actually are,(KY even got into the top 10 a couple times), then will get brought back down to reality when the sec starts.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Wait, please tell me that Florida is not STILL top 5....

ETA: The SEC East is LOADED this year. Vandy #1, Florida and Georgia top 10 (even though Florida may not belong there at the moment), and then Tennessee is probably a lot better than they are currently given credit for. I don't know that they're ready to compete with Vandy, but they are definitely in the mix with these other 3 teams. They may actually have better pitching than us. If you haven't already, go look at their team pitching stats. They have already posted SIX shutouts on the year. For comparison, we have posted 2. Yes, they have played worse competition, but still - 6 shutouts already? That's nuts.

Tony Vitello is regarded as one of the top talent evaluators in the game. Not shocking he has Tennessee turned around already. 6 shutouts though.......that's pretty damn impressive. They didn't allow a run through the first 4 games and only allowed 1 through 6 games.

[sleepy dawg]

Since I can't get rid of my lil miss bitch a lot handle, I guess I'll just own up to it. We should absolutely be top 5 and probably top 3 right now.

Florida at #5 right now is a joke. Vandy at #1 is a joke. Both are good teams, but they're getting too much credit for what everybody thought they should've done up to this point. Florida is freaking 9-4 and getting owned in their own state. They've lost to South Florida, North Florida, Miami, and Central Florida. They're lucky they haven't played Florida State. I'm sure Florida will get things figured out, but why give them the benefit of the doubt. At this point in time they don't deserve it. Top 25 maybe, but no where even close to top 5... If they start winning, then move them up.

[PMDawg]

Their schedule is nowhere near as bad as you think. Currently 57th SOS, and SEC leading RPI of 4, per Warren Nolan. We're currently 65th with SOS of 176. Obviously too early to mean much - but it does show they've played some decent teams.

Their team ERA is 0.85. 106 IP, 131 Ks, 21 BB. OBA = 0.140.

You may end up being right, but for now, they look pretty darn good. Something to keep an eye on is all.

ETA - this is still TN I'm discussing

[CadaverDawg]

I try to like D1baseball's guys, but then I see rankings like this and it kills their credibility. How do you justify dropping Texas Tech from 3 to 14 after losing 2 games, one of which was to your new #7....yet Florida loses to USF, North Florida, UCF and stays at #5? How do you justify that?

[smootness]

Since I can't get rid of my lil miss bitch a lot handle, I guess I'll just own up to it. We should absolutely be top 5 and probably top 3 right now.

Florida at #5 right now is a joke. Vandy at #1 is a joke. Both are good teams, but they're getting too much credit for what everybody thought they should've done up to this point. Florida is freaking 9-4 and getting owned in their own state. They've lost to South Florida, North Florida, Miami, and Central Florida. They're lucky they haven't played Florida State. I'm sure Florida will get things figured out, but why give them the benefit of the doubt. At this point in time they don't deserve it. Top 25 maybe, but no where even close to top 5... If they start winning, then move them up.

Baseball rankings move very slowly this early in the year. I think they try to look and see, if a team loses a few games, whether it was 'just baseball' or something that changes what they thought of that team. Florida lost a few in a row when their offense evaporated, but then they just scored 49 runs this weekend. Also, if you're going to mention the loss to Miami, it seems worth mentioning that they actually won that series.

Florida may be a fraud, but I'm not sure we know enough to know that yet. And early baseball rankings always tend to overemphasize preseason rankings...on purpose most of the time.

[smootness]

Their schedule is nowhere near as bad as you think. Currently 57th SOS, and SEC leading RPI of 4, per Warren Nolan. We're currently 65th with SOS of 176. Obviously too early to mean much - but it does show they've played some decent teams.

Their team ERA is 0.85. 106 IP, 131 Ks, 21 BB. OBA = 0.140.

You may end up being right, but for now, they look pretty darn good. Something to keep an eye on is all.

ETA - this is still TN I'm discussing

RPI and SOS mean less than nothing this early in the year. They're definitely a team to watch, though. Their pitching has been lights out and it will be interesting to see how well it translates to better competition.

[MetEdDawg]

For those wondering, we went from 9th to 8th in the Baseball America poll.

They did the same thing with Florida and kept them at #5. The write up on baseball america talks about how great their offense is but mentions nothing about their pitching. They've not played great competition and I'm stunned they are still Top 5

[StarkVegasSteve]

For those wondering, we went from 9th to 8th in the Baseball America poll.

They did the same thing with Florida and kept them at #5. The write up on baseball america talks about how great their offense is but mentions nothing about their pitching. They've not played great competition and I'm stunned they are still Top 5

Florida is the exact reason why college baseball polls don't need to be released til conference play starts. They wouldn't be ranked anywhere near the Top 5 if they weren't so highly ranked preseason. Conversely, we'd probably be ranked in the Top 3 if they'd wait.

[sleepy dawg]

Florida is the exact reason why college baseball polls don't need to be released til conference play starts. They wouldn't be ranked anywhere near the Top 5 if they weren't so highly ranked preseason. Conversely, we'd probably be ranked in the Top 3 if they'd wait.

Fact

[Jack Lambert]

Florida is the exact reason why college baseball polls don't need to be released til conference play starts. They wouldn't be ranked anywhere near the Top 5 if they weren't so highly ranked preseason. Conversely, we'd probably be ranked in the Top 3 if they'd wait.

You can say that about football as well. However I do think they get basketball pretty close to what it actually is.

[BiscuitEater]

Wait, please tell me that Florida is not STILL top 5....

ETA: The SEC East is LOADED this year. Vandy #1, Florida and Georgia top 10 (even though Florida may not belong there at the moment)..

I have seen a couple of posts about HOW good Georgia is this year BUT I just don't see it. They have played a total crap OOC. Yes they have won some games BUT breaking in down .. they have played high school competition …

Feb 15 (Fri) vs Dayton W, 5-1
Feb 16 (Sat) vs Dayton(DH) W, 10-7
Feb 16 (Sat) vs Dayton(DH) W, 13-1
Feb 23 (Sat) vs UMass Lowell W, 6-2
Feb 24 (Sun) vs UMass Lowell(DH) W, 13-5
Feb 24 (Sun) vs UMass Lowell(DH) W, 12-5
Feb 26 (Tue) vs LIU Brooklyn L, 0-1
Feb 27 (Wed) vs Kennesaw State W, 11-1
Mar 1 (Fri) at Georgia Southern W, 3-1
Mar 2 (Sat) at Georgia Southern W, 4-2
Mar 2 (Sat) at Georgia Southern L, 7-10

Dayton 1-6-1 (only win is a 1 run win over Seton Hall)
UMass Lowell is 0-10, with 4 losses to Arizona where they outscored 69-17, 3 losses to UNC .. outscored 33-3
LIU Brooklyn is 1-9, their ONLY win is over Georgia; lost 3 to Lamar, 3 to Florida Gulf Coast, and 3 to East Tennessee State
Georgia Southern is only 4-6

[ShotgunDawg]

I try to like D1baseball's guys, but then I see rankings like this and it kills their credibility. How do you justify dropping Texas Tech from 3 to 14 after losing 2 games, one of which was to your new #7....yet Florida loses to USF, North Florida, UCF and stays at #5? How do you justify that?

IMO baseball polls are the toughest of all the sports because it's the sport where the best teams are most likely to lose games & depending on who the others team's starting pitcher is, could actually be the underdog on a given night.

I don't think Florida is near as good as they have been, but they are extremely deep. Them & Vanderbilt just have a different level of talent throughout their 35 man roster than any other teams, Vandy due to scholarships & Florida due to scholarships & an incredibly deep D1 talent pool within 2 hours of campus.

Again, it just depends on what you want rankings to tell you. Do you want them to exactly reflect record or have more meaning? I'd have to look back at Florida's losses but perhaps UCF, USF, etc threw their #1 pitcher & Florida threw their #4. There is so much context to baseball because teams can be drastically different depending on who their starting pitcher is. UAB sucks, but did UAB suck when Ashcraft was on the mound throwing 96 in the 6th inning? Same thing

[CadaverDawg]

IMO baseball polls are the toughest of all the sports because it's the sport where the best teams are most likely to lose games & depending on who the others team's starting pitcher is, could actually be the underdog on a given night.

I don't think Florida is near as good as they have been, but they are extremely deep. Them & Vanderbilt just have a different level of talent throughout their 35 man roster than any other teams, Vandy due to scholarships & Florida due to scholarships & an incredibly deep D1 talent pool within 2 hours of campus.

Again, it just depends on what you want rankings to tell you. Do you want them to exactly reflect record or have more meaning? I'd have to look back at Florida's losses but perhaps UCF, USF, etc threw their #1 pitcher & Florida threw their #4. There is so much context to baseball because teams can be drastically different depending on who their starting pitcher is. UAB sucks, but did UAB suck when Ashcraft was on the mound throwing 96 in the 6th inning? Same thing

Rankings should ONLY reflect the wins and losses and who they're against. Why else have them? You just said yourself that Florida and Vandy have the most talent...so should they be penciled in as Top 5 all year bc they're SUPPOSED to be good and have great talent? No. Results matter. And so far, their great depth has lost to below average teams 3 times this year already...and it shouldn't matter if those teams started their Ace, if Florida is so deep they should win. Just like we did vs Ashcraft with our midweek guys.

And again, if they're ranking on potential (which would be dumb), then why drop TTU from 3 to 14 after losses to their new #7 MSU and Nebraska? Neither of those losses is as bad as UCF, USF, and N Florida, yet Florida is #5? There's no justification for it, regardless of "what they're wanting rankings to reflect". Otherwise Tech would have stayed Top 5 too

[ShotgunDawg]

Rankings should ONLY reflect the wins and losses and who they're against. Why else have them? You just said yourself that Florida and Vandy have the most talent...so should they be penciled in as Top 5 all year bc they're SUPPOSED to be good and have great talent? No. Results matter. And so far, their great depth has lost to below average teams 3 times this year already...and it shouldn't matter if those teams started their Ace, if Florida is so deep they should win. Just like we did vs Ashcraft with our midweek guys.

And again, if they're ranking on potential (which would be dumb), then why drop TTU from 3 to 14 after losses to their new #7 MSU and Nebraska? Neither of those losses is as bad as UCF, USF, and N Florida, yet Florida is #5? There's no justification for it, regardless of "what they're wanting rankings to reflect". Otherwise Tech would have stayed Top 5 too

You make good points. Not disagreeing, just offering up the debate

[CadaverDawg]

You make good points. Not disagreeing, just offering up the debate

You as well

[smootness]

Rankings should ONLY reflect the wins and losses and who they're against. Why else have them? You just said yourself that Florida and Vandy have the most talent...so should they be penciled in as Top 5 all year bc they're SUPPOSED to be good and have great talent? No. Results matter. And so far, their great depth has lost to below average teams 3 times this year already...and it shouldn't matter if those teams started their Ace, if Florida is so deep they should win. Just like we did vs Ashcraft with our midweek guys.

And again, if they're ranking on potential (which would be dumb), then why drop TTU from 3 to 14 after losses to their new #7 MSU and Nebraska? Neither of those losses is as bad as UCF, USF, and N Florida, yet Florida is #5? There's no justification for it, regardless of "what they're wanting rankings to reflect". Otherwise Tech would have stayed Top 5 too

They've obviously seen something from TT that makes them think they're not exactly what they thought but aren't as confident about that in relation to Florida.

Baseball rankings this early are very hard, I think everyone can acknowledge. Single baseball games are more of a crapshoot than other sports, so the smaller the sample, the harder it will be to determine what single games mean.

I agree that rankings this early are mostly dumb, but they're never going to get rid of them. So if they have them, I think this is a better way to go about it than to have huge swings early in the year based on individual games.

And it doesn't matter anyway. Baseball rankings are probably the most accurate by the end of the year, so it will all even out.

[Jack Lambert]

I have seen a couple of posts about HOW good Georgia is this year BUT I just don't see it. They have played a total crap OOC. Yes they have won some games BUT breaking in down .. they have played high school competition ?

Feb 15 (Fri) vs Dayton W, 5-1
Feb 16 (Sat) vs Dayton(DH) W, 10-7
Feb 16 (Sat) vs Dayton(DH) W, 13-1
Feb 23 (Sat) vs UMass Lowell W, 6-2
Feb 24 (Sun) vs UMass Lowell(DH) W, 13-5
Feb 24 (Sun) vs UMass Lowell(DH) W, 12-5
Feb 26 (Tue) vs LIU Brooklyn L, 0-1
Feb 27 (Wed) vs Kennesaw State W, 11-1
Mar 1 (Fri) at Georgia Southern W, 3-1
Mar 2 (Sat) at Georgia Southern W, 4-2
Mar 2 (Sat) at Georgia Southern L, 7-10

Dayton 1-6-1 (only win is a 1 run win over Seton Hall)
UMass Lowell is 0-10, with 4 losses to Arizona where they outscored 69-17, 3 losses to UNC .. outscored 33-3
LIU Brooklyn is 1-9, their ONLY win is over Georgia; lost 3 to Lamar, 3 to Florida Gulf Coast, and 3 to East Tennessee State
Georgia Southern is only 4-6

They were looking past those guys.******

[sleepy dawg]

They've obviously seen something from TT that makes them think they're not exactly what they thought but aren't as confident about that in relation to Florida.

Baseball rankings this early are very hard, I think everyone can acknowledge. Single baseball games are more of a crapshoot than other sports, so the smaller the sample, the harder it will be to determine what single games mean.

I agree that rankings this early are mostly dumb, but they're never going to get rid of them. So if they have them, I think this is a better way to go about it than to have huge swings early in the year based on individual games.

And it doesn't matter anyway. Baseball rankings are probably the most accurate by the end of the year, so it will all even out.

Is it obvious though? ELO is about as good as a method as there is that is also simple to use. Look at these and tell me this doesn't make so much more sense than any other system or poll out there right now. Obviously any system is going to struggle until there is a sizable sample size, but there's enough connectedness already that any good system should have some type of realistic and common sense form to it by now. RPI is terrible. It is no where close to forming yet, and the polls lag way behind the data. Even at this early in the year, the ELO system is clearly starting to sort out the good from the bad based strictly on wins/losses and where they were played.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/elochess

[Todd4State]

Is it obvious though? ELO is about as good as a method as there is that is also simple to use. Look at these and tell me this doesn't make so much more sense than any other system or poll out there right now. Obviously any system is going to struggle until there is a sizable sample size, but there's enough connectedness already that any good system should have some type of realistic and common sense form to it by now. RPI is terrible. It is no where close to forming yet, and the polls lag way behind the data. Even at this early in the year, the ELO system is clearly starting to sort out the good from the bad based strictly on wins/losses and where they were played.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/elochess

I agree about RPI. But RPI is designed not really to show how good a team is but rather how good your opponents are- and your opponents opponents.