2019 ESPN CFB Power Index

[ShotgunDawg]

Good News: We ranked
Bad News: All toss ups are on the road.

1096080697708539905

https://twitter.com/cfbmatrix/status/1096080697708539905?s=21

[ScoobaDawg]

Well you tried Shotgun.. sorry forgot to mention Tweet2 you only use the actual tweet number such as 1096080697708539905

[msstate7]

Looks like this metric looks at tenn like I do. I think that tenn game is gonna be extremely tough.

[ShotgunDawg]

Well you tried Shotgun.. sorry forgot to mention Tweet2 you only use the actual tweet number such as 1096080697708539905

I did try. Not sure I understand.

[ScoobaDawg]

I did try. Not sure I understand.

https://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread.php?55612-Idiots-guide-to-Posting-Media-on-a-Forum-and-other-How-to-s&p=1051556&viewfull=1#post1051556

[confucius say]

Looks like this metric looks at tenn like I do. I think that tenn game is gonna be extremely tough.

To be fair, tenn is that high every year

[Tbonewannabe]

Looks like this metric looks at tenn like I do. I think that tenn game is gonna be extremely tough.

This just means that if Joe exceeds 7 wins then he overachieved pretty big because it will require beating at least one of the top 15 on the road unless it is either Bama or LSU at home (which would be bigger).

[bulldawg28]

Looks like this metric looks at tenn like I do. I think that tenn game is gonna be extremely tough.

TN is trash and they just hired vanilla Chaney as their OC.

[dawgday166]

Looks like this metric looks at tenn like I do. I think that tenn game is gonna be extremely tough.

Naww mane ... piece of cake just like KY, FL, and LSU were supposed to be this past year. TN sucks just like they did too ****

ETA: I think they will be a tough out in Knoxville. Since I'm not sure about our O yet and with some big losses on D (which I'm optimistic about replacing) ... I'm not sure how to call this one just yet but don't wanna discount Pruitt like everyone else does on here.

[BuckyIsAB****]

ESPN makes a ranking directly based off their own recruiting rankings. Shocker.

[BuckyIsAB****]

But we will be pretty good. We are better than UT, UK, OM, and Ark. LSU & Bama @ home helps a lot the rest will be tough but A&M is def beatable as well as Auburn.

[msstate7]

ESPN makes a ranking directly based off their own recruiting rankings. Shocker.

Wrong. We were 9th in this same final ranking for 2018. We haven't recruited top 10 in the espn recruiting rankings the last 4 years

[BuckyIsAB****]

Wrong. We were 9th in this same final ranking for 2018. We haven't recruited top 10 in the espn recruiting rankings the last 4 years

Im saying that ranking right there damn near reflects their recruiting rankings from this year. Not the final poll from last year. Easy killer

[msstate7]

Im saying that ranking right there damn near reflects their recruiting rankings from this year. Not the final poll from last year. Easy killer

I just don't see it. This metric loves us, and it certainly isn't bc of recruiting rankings. Don't get me riled up!

[Liverpooldawg]

Pre-season rankings mean absolutely nothing.

[ShotgunDawg]

Pre-season rankings mean absolutely nothing.

Not true.

The algorithms used to make these rankings are created by looking at the past years and reverse engineering why teams won or lost. They aren't just a random guess

Do they officially mean anything? Of course not.

Do they indicate a petty strong coorelation of how good your team will be based on who has been good in past years? Absolutely.

[smootness]

Not true.

The algorithms used to make these rankings are created by looking at the past years and reverse engineering why teams won or lost. They aren't just a random guess

Do they officially mean anything? Of course not.

Do they indicate a petty strong coorelation of how good your team will be based on who has been good in past years? Absolutely.

Eh, not really.

I could do pretty well guessing who will finish in the top 10-20 every year knowing nothing about any teams because generally speaking the same teams end up there. But for any individual team, these rankings are pretty useless.

[RougeDawg]

Do they have a footnote of whether or not these rankings include a factor for coach dumbassery? If they do not, you have to drop us down about 20-30 spots. If we continue down the round peg square hole offensive path, 6 wins will be a milestone for our offensive genius.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I'm way less familiar with the FPI than a couple of other systems, so I took this as opportunity to at least get the gist of the thing.

Here's the system's premise:


FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Here's what the constituent parts of the rankings mean:


Each team's FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

Four things go into the preseason FPI ranking -- the prior season's performance, returning starters, recent recruiting, and the head coach's tenure:


-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year's performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it's not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team's roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it's worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team's predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.

For what it's worth, the FPI had us at 16th in the 2018 preseason poll, too.

[Tbonewannabe]

I'm way less familiar with the FPI than a couple of other systems, so I took this as opportunity to at least get the gist of the thing.

Here's the system's premise:



Here's what the constituent parts of the rankings mean:



Four things go into the preseason FPI ranking -- the prior season's performance, returning starters, recent recruiting, and the head coach's tenure:



For what it's worth, the FPI had us at 16th in the 2018 preseason poll, too.

When you look at it like that, last year would have been pretty good statistics wise. When we won, it was by a pretty big margin. We won by 14 over AU and 15 over aTm (#16), other than those the rest were blow outs. We did lose by 21 at UK (on the road to #12), 7 vs UF (home to #7), 16 at LSU (on the road to #6), 24 at Bama (on the road to #2), and 5 vs Iowa (neutral field to #25).

[Quaoarsking]

We are finally getting respect, and it's like so much respect. And after all these years of disrespect are our fans happy? No, half of them think it's stupid and we don't deserve it.

[msstate7]

We are finally getting respect, and it's like so much respect. And after all these years of disrespect are our fans happy? No, half of them think it's stupid and we don't deserve it.

I have never given a crap about polls/rankings. They mean absolutely nothing. I would trade that 8th place FPI finish in 2018 with an 8-5 record for Kentucky's 26th finish with a 10-3 record.

[Todd4State]

When you look at it like that, last year would have been pretty good statistics wise. When we won, it was by a pretty big margin. We won by 14 over AU and 15 over aTm (#16), other than those the rest were blow outs. We did lose by 21 at UK (on the road to #12), 7 vs UF (home to #7), 16 at LSU (on the road to #6), 24 at Bama (on the road to #2), and 5 vs Iowa (neutral field to #25).

We definitely know where we stand for sure.

[Todd4State]

We are finally getting respect, and it's like so much respect. And after all these years of disrespect are our fans happy? No, half of them think it's stupid and we don't deserve it.

I agree. We've come a long way in ten years. Our fans need a really meaningful upset win over someone like Alabama or LSU. For the first time in forever we dominated our OOC schedule. Remember when La Tech was a dicey game for us? Or UMass?

Really the only teams we struggle with now are top 20 SEC teams.