Early S&P+ Rankings Out -- State #10

[bluelightstar]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/2/11/18219163/2019-college-football-rankings-projections

Have to say, the sportswriters and analytics seem to like the 2019 team. Critical year for Moorhead.

[Tbonewannabe]

I guess a lot of people have faith that Joe will get his QB and still have a good defense. Just looking at those rankings, Bama #1, LSU #4, and probably Auburn #8 are sure losses. aTm#13 is a toss up with the edge to them since it is in Aggie land. UT #21 will be close to a toss up being in Knoxville.

That leaves us at either 7-5 or 8-4 by winning one of two toss ups. I would take that next year if it shakes out like that.

[msstate7]

I guess a lot of people have faith that Joe will get his QB and still have a good defense. Just looking at those rankings, Bama #1, LSU #4, and probably Auburn #8 are sure losses. aTm#13 is a toss up with the edge to them since it is in Aggie land. UT #21 will be close to a toss up being in Knoxville.

That leaves us at either 7-5 or 8-4 by winning one of two toss ups. I would take that next year if it shakes out like that.

8-4 next season would be outstanding. I'd change my tune on Moorhead big time. 6-6/7-5 is my prediction

[msu15]

I guess a lot of people have faith that Joe will get his QB and still have a good defense. Just looking at those rankings, Bama #1, LSU #4, and probably Auburn #8 are sure losses. aTm#13 is a toss up with the edge to them since it is in Aggie land. UT #21 will be close to a toss up being in Knoxville.

That leaves us at either 7-5 or 8-4 by winning one of two toss ups. I would take that next year if it shakes out like that.

Just my opinion, but I'm more confident in the Auburn game compared to A&M. Who's going to be AU's quarterback?

[msu15]

8-4 next season would be outstanding. I'd change my tune on Moorhead big time. 6-6/7-5 is my prediction

Yep I'd give him an extension if we go 8-4 next season. I really like the talent that we have on the team overall, but we're losing grown men on defense and the 4 of out 5 SEC road stretch is brutal.

[msstate7]

I wonder on the returning players how much is done by a computer. For instance, if a computer sees key's 190.44 passer rating (which would be good for 3rd in the country this year if he qualified), and gives us a huge bump for that.

[Covercorner2]

Just my opinion, but I'm more confident in the Auburn game compared to A&M. Who's going to be AU's quarterback?

Bo Nix.

There is no way we won't win at least 7 games:

ULL
USM
KSU
UK (at home)
Arkansas is terrible
Abilene Christian
Ole Miss is terrible and at home

We would have to probably lose a game we are at least a 7 point favorite in to win less than 7 and that's if we don't beat a team like A&M, Auburn, LSU, or UT.

[msstate7]

Bo Nix.

There is no way we won't win at least 7 games:

ULL
USM
KSU
UK (at home)
Arkansas is terrible
Abilene Christian
Ole Miss is terrible and at home

We would have to probably lose a game we are at least a 7 point favorite in to win less than 7 and that's if we don't beat a team like A&M, Auburn, LSU, or UT.

Well we did lose 3 games this year as at least a 7-pt favorite: Kentucky +10, Florida +7, and Iowa +7

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/teams/team-page.cfm/team/mississippi-state

[ShotgunDawg]

I wonder on the returning players how much is done by a computer. For instance, if a computer sees key's 190.44 passer rating (which would be good for 3rd in the country this year if he qualified), and gives us a huge bump for that.

I'm sure they have built in ways to handle that. By nature, people that are capable of producing algorithms are typically smart people & using Key's passer rating last year would be an not smart thing. So I'm gonna guess they've built in ways to handle that.

[ShotgunDawg]

This may be the first season in my life time where I feel like we may be overrated.

I personally believe the offense may have a high ceiling next year, but, after being underrated & disrespected for 100+ years, I have no clue why the metrics appear to love our team.

[msstate7]

I'm sure they have built in ways to handle that. By nature, people that are capable of producing algorithms are typically smart people & using Key's passer rating last year would be an not smart thing. So I'm gonna guess they've built in ways to handle that.

Then I'm not really sure how they come up with returning stength. We lose 57% of our rushing this season and 78% of our passing. We lose 2 interior olinemen that could end up nfl guys. Let's not even discuss what we lose on defense

[ShotgunDawg]

Then I'm not really sure how they come up with returning stength. We lose 57% of our rushing this season and 78% of our passing. We lose 2 interior olinemen that could end up nfl guys. Let's not even discuss what we lose on defense

Yeah. I agree with you, but I don't know their algorithm.

I know that Brett McMurphy likes us well. It isn't just the S&P that likes us. I'll try to find out. I know a guy

[BeardoMSU]

8-4/9-3

Definitely think we beat Tennessee, and this maybe the year the wheels fall off the Gus Bus. I expect A&M to be improved, maybe LSU, too.

[Tbonewannabe]

8-4/9-3

Definitely think we beat Tennessee, and this maybe the year the wheels fall off the Gus Bus. I expect A&M to be improved, maybe LSU, too.

8-4 would be outstanding, 9-3 would make people on this message board commit harakiri. They wouldn't know how to handle Moorhead being better than expectations. For me 6-6 is the floor but my expectation is 7-5 with a chance at 8-4. Anything above 8-4 and I would think we somehow found a star QB with WRs that can catch.

[msstate7]

8-4/9-3

Definitely think we beat Tennessee, and this maybe the year the wheels fall off the Gus Bus. I expect A&M to be improved, maybe LSU, too.

If we go 9-3, Moorhead is probably the 2nd best coach in the sec

[ShotgunDawg]

8-4 would be outstanding, 9-3 would make people on this message board commit harakiri. They wouldn't know how to handle Moorhead being better than expectations. For me 6-6 is the floor but my expectation is 7-5 with a chance at 8-4. Anything above 8-4 and I would think we somehow found a star QB with WRs that can catch.

9-3 & JoMo gets offered the Penn State job & we have to start all over again with another learning curve coach*

[BeardoMSU]

9-3 isn't that far fetched, lol. The occ games we absolutely should dominate. We should beat Ark, Ky, and OM, and I think TN is going to suck again, so that's 8-4.....just snag 1 from either LSU, A&M, and Aub....definitely tough, but not impossible.

[BrunswickDawg]

9-3 isn't that far fetched, lol. The occ games we absolutely should dominate. We should beat Ark, Ky, and OM, and I think TN is going to suck again, so that's 8-4.....just snag 1 from either LSU, A&M, and Aub....definitely tough, but not impossible.

If we win any of those (A&M, LSU, AU), the cries of "it's a down year in the SEC" will dominate a lot of posts on this board.

[ShotgunDawg]

Our program is heading in the right direction, although it feels painfully slow.

We tend to only look at one year of recruiting data, but the truth is that our recruiting has become much more consistent. We used to have wide swings from 40th in recruiting to 18th, but now we've really settled into the top 25 of recruiting year in & year out.

What does that lead to?

By my count we lose 4 4+ star recruits off the 2018 roster, but bring in 6 more, according to 247

Thus, on paper we will have 24 4 & 5 star recruits on the roster next year, which will be a record for MSU since such records have existed.

We may not have Bama talent, but we are slowly adding enough talent to the roster to believe that with continued growth, at some point in the next 5-10 years, we'll have a team where mostly only 4 & 5 star recruits play in the game.

Think about it.

[Michael Milken]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/2/11/18219163/2019-college-football-rankings-projections

Have to say, the sportswriters and analytics seem to like the 2019 team. Critical year for Moorhead.

The S&P has really liked us over the past year.

But even just winning the ones we should by formula, makes us 8-4 and 4th in the West....

Brutal..

[sleepy dawg]

If we win any of those (A&M, LSU, AU), the cries of "it's a down year in the SEC" will dominate a lot of posts on this board.

I've heard it's a down year for the SEC every year of my life.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I wonder on the returning players how much is done by a computer. For instance, if a computer sees key's 190.44 passer rating (which would be good for 3rd in the country this year if he qualified), and gives us a huge bump for that.

To my knowledge, the raw returning production data is based solely on percentages. Percent of returning rushing yards, passing yards, receiving yards, OL starts, TFLs, sacks, interceptions, passes defended, and overall tackles. (For defenders, Bill C. breaks it down by position, too, to try to find out what's most predictive of success the following year. So far -- he's only got three or four seasons' worth of numbers for this stuff -- he's found that on defense, the stat that correlates most to success is returning production in the backfield: tackles and passes defended by DBs and safeties. On offense, it's receiving yards.)

So I don't think Key's passer rating is part of the equation for returning production. (His efficiency and explosiveness numbers, which encompass the stuff that goes into his passer rating, would of course be part of our overall efficiency and explosiveness numbers last year that contributed to our offensive and overall S&P+ rating.)

I'm as surprised as you are by the overall ranking, but even more surprised at the modified returning production rank he's got listed for us. In his separate returning production post (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/1/31/18204093/2019-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience), we're ranked 92nd nationally in returning production. (81st in returning offensive production and 90th in returning defensive production.) But in his new overall S&P+ ranking for next year, he lists our returning production ranking as 8th nationally. Here's his note about why the ranks on the two lists are different:


For returning production, I take each team's returning offensive and defensive production (which are on different scales) and apply projected changes to last year's ratings. The ranking you see below is not where they rank in returning production but where they would rank after the projected changes are applied to last year's S&P+ averages. This piece makes up a vast majority of the overall S&P+ projections.

I'm not totally sure that I follow, but I think that means that he's adjusting the returning number for quality. For example, in his overall S&P+ rankings, he's got Alabama with the No. 1 returning production for next season. But in his returning production rankings that take into account only the raw data, Alabama is No. 63. (54th in returning offense and 80th in returning defense.)

Given that the S&P+ has loved our defense the past two years (No. 18 in 2017 and No. 1 in 2018) and that it likes our talent fairly well (No. 20 nationally in weighted 5-year recruiting average), I guess it thinks what we've got coming back on defense is pretty damn good.

Add to that the fact that the advanced stats metrics thought our offense was decent last year (No. 32 in offensive S&P+ and No. 28 in the offensive FEI ratings), and I guess you get a predictive model that spits us out as No. 10.

Now, I don't expect us to play at a Top 10 level next season, but so it goes. Three cheers for getting dap from algebra!

Oh, and for what it's worth, here are the preseason S&P+ projections for our rank each of the past five years vs. our preseason AP rank, just because I was curious:

2014 - 29th / 36th
2015 - 21st / 26th
2016 - 21st / No votes (~40th or worse)
2017 - 30th / No votes (~50th or worse)
2018 - 14th /18th

[BuckyIsAB****]

Nope we suck and dont have a chance, Moorhead should call the UHaul just ask these guys

[Quaoarsking]

They project us as #2 in defense and #32 in offense, so we'll be even better than 10th if Jomo gets the offense going like he did at Penn State

[dawgday166]

We ain't top 10 next year. May could be in top 20. I'll be happy with top 25.

D probably top 20ish. Offense may move up to mid 30s low 40s is my guess. To me that will translate into maybe a top 20 team but not top 10. All of it is just a guess right now tho.

[KOdawg1]

They project us as #2 in defense and #32 in offense, so we'll be even better than 10th if Jomo gets the offense going like he did at Penn State
We simply lose too much to remain a top 2 defense. I think 32ish as an offense is about right and top 15 for the defense would be more like it.

[msstate7]

We simply lose too much to remain a top 2 defense. I think 32ish as an offense is about right and top 15 for the defense would be more like it.

We've been a top 20 total defense 3 times since 2009 (far as cfbstats.com goes back). The last 2 years and 2013. The rest of the years we were topping out in the 50s. Now maybe we've turned the corner defensively, but it has to be considered that it's just the core of players we're losing this year that raised our level of play.

[Todd4State]

We've been a top 20 total defense 3 times since 2009 (far as cfbstats.com goes back). The last 2 years and 2013. The rest of the years we were topping out in the 50s. Now maybe we've turned the corner defensively, but it has to be considered that it's just the core of players we're losing this year that raised our level of play.

When you're changing your DC and micromanaging the hell out of them and doing weird things like 1A/1B- those things tend to hurt your defense. Some of our DC's have been good- really good like Shoop and Grantham, and then you have a tier with Manny Diaz and Geoff Collins but then we've also had Carl Torbush, Chris Wilson, and bottomed out with Peter Sirmon being the worst DC the past 10 years or so.

[Todd4State]

Oh, and for what it's worth, here are the preseason S&P+ projections for our rank each of the past five years vs. our preseason AP rank, just because I was curious:

2014 - 29th / 36th
2015 - 21st / 26th
2016 - 21st / No votes (~40th or worse)
2017 - 30th / No votes (~50th or worse)
2018 - 14th /18th

Can you clarify for me? First number is S&P and second number is AP rank?

What would really interest me is the S&P vs the final rank. I think 2016 can be explained by the fact that Dan was checked out for a lot of the year and Sirmon was a really bad hire.

[Todd4State]

If we win any of those (A&M, LSU, AU), the cries of "it's a down year in the SEC" will dominate a lot of posts on this board.

I'm sure they will find an excuse like but......Auburn was missing their back left cornerback and we just got lucky and took advantage of it.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Can you clarify for me? First number is S&P and second number is AP rank?

What would really interest me is the S&P vs the final rank. I think 2016 can be explained by the fact that Dan was checked out for a lot of the year and Sirmon was a really bad hire.

My bad. Yeah, the first is S&P+ preseason rank and second is the AP preseason rank.

Here are our final AP rankings for each of those seasons:

2014 - 11th
2015 - 28th
2016 - Unranked / No votes (~50th or worse)
2017 - 19th
2018 - 28th

And here are our final S&P+ rankings for those seasons:

2014 - 10th
2015 - 21st
2016 - 56th
2017 - 19th
2018 - 8th

Comparing the two is interesting, but not quite apples to apples. AP is a sampling of subjective eye tests based primarily upon, of course, wins and losses. The S&P+ is based on play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness -- rate of running and preventing successful plays and the degree of success achieved or prevented -- adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

Based on this five-year stretch, the S&P+ system likes us a more than voters. But it wasn't alone. Another advanced stat system, the FEI, which measures the efficiency of drives instead of individual plays, had us at 8th in its final ranking (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei) this year, too. (And at 12th, 16th, 69th, and 19th from 2014 - 2017.) Both systems liked our 2018 offense more than we did (32nd in offensive S&P+ and 28th in offensive FEI), both systems gave due credit for the defense being elite this year (1st in S&P+ and 2nd in FEI), and both systems gave us props for playing a very difficult schedule (8th hardest schedule per the S&P+ and 7th hardest per the FEI). (Oddly, the systems sharply disagreed about our special teams. S&P+ thought they sucked (101st) and FEI thought they were great (15th). That's a pretty big difference. Weird.)

[Saltydog]

NT

[msstate7]

My bad. Yeah, the first is S&P+ preseason rank and second is the AP preseason rank.

Here are our final AP rankings for each of those seasons:

2014 - 11th
2015 - 28th
2016 - Unranked / No votes (~50th or worse)
2017 - 19th
2018 - 28th

And here are our final S&P+ rankings for those seasons:

2014 - 10th
2015 - 21st
2016 - 56th
2017 - 19th
2018 - 8th

Comparing the two is interesting, but not quite apples to apples. AP is a sampling of subjective eye tests based primarily upon, of course, wins and losses. The S&P+ is based on play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness -- rate of running and preventing successful plays and the degree of success achieved or prevented -- adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

Based on this five-year stretch, the S&P+ system likes us a more than voters. But it wasn't alone. Another advanced stat system, the FEI, which measures the efficiency of drives instead of individual plays, had us at 8th in its final ranking (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei) this year, too. (And at 12th, 16th, 69th, and 19th from 2014 - 2017.) Both systems liked our 2018 offense more than we did (32nd in offensive S&P+ and 28th in offensive FEI), both systems gave due credit for the defense being elite this year (1st in S&P+ and 2nd in FEI), and both systems gave us props for playing a very difficult schedule (8th hardest schedule per the S&P+ and 7th hardest per the FEI). (Oddly, the systems sharply disagreed about our special teams. S&P+ thought they sucked (101st) and FEI thought they were great (15th). That's a pretty big difference. Weird.)

Those rankings seem to indicate we didn't underachieve 2014-2017, but did in 2018. Not very inspiring

[BrunswickDawg]

Those rankings seem to indicate we didn't underachieve 2014-2017, but did in 2018. Not very inspiring

No - they are measuring a different metric broader than just wins and loses. Based on those, we didn't overachieve or underachieve, we performed to the level that they calculate. If their metrics add up to you being the 8th best team in the country, then you are the 8th best team in the country by their metric. If the S&P+ was substituted for the CFP Poll, you would be be elated finishing 8th and it would have placed us in a NY6 Bowl. Unfortunately, advanced metrics like this is not the way the polls are calculated. The polls are subjective, based on opinions of performance. That's Pain's point.

[msstate7]

S&p+ is losing me some when I look at its 10 best teams...

1. Bama
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. LSU
6. Ohio st
7. Auburn
8. State
9. Florida
10. Michigan

This is post-bowl games too

ETA... s&p+ says OM had the 6th best offense in the country and the 33rd best team

[Prediction? Pain.]

We've been a top 20 total defense 3 times since 2009 (far as cfbstats.com goes back). The last 2 years and 2013. The rest of the years we were topping out in the 50s. Now maybe we've turned the corner defensively, but it has to be considered that it's just the core of players we're losing this year that raised our level of play.


When you're changing your DC and micromanaging the hell out of them and doing weird things like 1A/1B- those things tend to hurt your defense. Some of our DC's have been good- really good like Shoop and Grantham, and then you have a tier with Manny Diaz and Geoff Collins but then we've also had Carl Torbush, Chris Wilson, and bottomed out with Peter Sirmon being the worst DC the past 10 years or so.

Yeah, there have been some interesting ups and downs with the DCs. Diaz in 2010, Wilson in 2011, and Collins in 2013 and 2014 all had varying degrees of success. Each of those defenses was ranked fairly well in advanced stats systems (between 36th and 18th in the S&P+ and between 26th and 14th in the FEI) and each excelled at some important traditional metrics as well. (For example, in SEC games in 2010, Top 3 in scoring D, red zone D, 3rd Down D, and TFLs. In 2011, Top 5 in the SEC in scoring D, red zone D, and long-play (20+ yards) D. In 2013, top 5 in the SEC in 3rd down D, red zone D, and long-play D. And in 2014, Top 3 in SEC in sacks and red zone D, No. 1 in passes defended, and No. 1 in 3rd down D.)

But then Torbush in 2009, Wilson in 2012, and Diaz in 2015 were all sub-par. And we need not discuss the Sirmon fiasco in 2016. The horror . . .

Grantham's 2017 D was on par with, if not a hair better than, the best of the 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2014 bunch. And then Shoop broke the roof off the thing.

So this is definitely the best two-year run of defense that we've had in the past decade. But if not for Diaz' down 2015 and Sirmon's disaster in 2016, we'd actually have strung together a decent eight-year stretch of defense.

[MetEdDawg]

Auburn will finish outside the Top 25 again. Gus has to be hating a high ranking because even though his defense will be very good, his offense has no QB and their weapons are worse than last year.

That will be a tough game but we are better than they are right now.

[msstate7]

Auburn will finish outside the Top 25 again. Gus has to be hating a high ranking because even though his defense will be very good, his offense has no QB and their weapons are worse than last year.

That will be a tough game but we are better than they are right now.

No, this is the final rating for 2018. S&P has auburn as the 8th best team this year.

Auburn hit homerun after homerun in the bowl game. I think a bunch of explosive plays in individual games can skew the ratings in this system somehow

[Prediction? Pain.]

Those rankings seem to indicate we didn't underachieve 2014-2017, but did in 2018. Not very inspiring

Our final AP ranking was lower than our preseason AP ranking in 2015, the same in 2016, and higher in 2014 and 2017. Our final S&P+ ranking was lower than our preseason S&P+ ranking in 2016, the same in 2015, and higher in 2014 and 2017. So depending upon what you're looking at, we under-performed in 2015 and 2016, too. And for whatever it's worth, those two seasons were frustrating in their own right, too. (Especially thinking about having Dak as a senior in 2015 and what he did the following year in Dallas. We were Top 3 or 4 in the SEC in several offensive categories that year and yet were stifled by a sub-par D (see A&M and U. Miss. losses) and a befuddling approach to the run game (see, uh, the entire season).)

[Tbonewannabe]

Our final AP ranking was lower than our preseason AP ranking in 2015, the same in 2016, and higher in 2014 and 2017. Our final S&P+ ranking was lower than our preseason S&P+ ranking in 2016, the same in 2015, and higher in 2014 and 2017. So depending upon what you're looking at, we under-performed in 2015 and 2016, too. And for whatever it's worth, those two seasons were frustrating in their own right, too. (Especially thinking about having Dak as a senior in 2015 and what he did the following year in Dallas. We were Top 3 or 4 in the SEC in several offensive categories that year and yet were stifled by a sub-par D (see A&M and U. Miss. losses) and a befuddling approach to the run game (see, uh, the entire season).)

Dak was probably the difference in going bowling that year. Could you imagine if Dan had Damian Williams with Holloway up the middle?

[Scared_Hitless]

90% of this season is going to be on the shoulders of KT. If he lives up to the hype 8-4 or 9-3 if not well 7-5 or worse. I think the defense will maintain top 25 level play offense needs to be top 40 to match.

[Tbonewannabe]

90% of this season is going to be on the shoulders of KT. If he lives up to the hype 8-4 or 9-3 if not well 7-5 or worse. I think the defense will maintain top 25 level play offense needs to be top 40 to match.

We just need a QB that can consistently run the offense and WRs that can catch the ball. If we get both of those things then 8-4 or maybe 9-3 is possible but I would still be happy if we get to 7-5. It doesn't have to be KT but he has playmaking ability so hopefully he gets comfortable in the offense.

[Todd4State]

My bad. Yeah, the first is S&P+ preseason rank and second is the AP preseason rank.

Here are our final AP rankings for each of those seasons:

2014 - 11th
2015 - 28th
2016 - Unranked / No votes (~50th or worse)
2017 - 19th
2018 - 28th

And here are our final S&P+ rankings for those seasons:

2014 - 10th
2015 - 21st
2016 - 56th
2017 - 19th
2018 - 8th

Comparing the two is interesting, but not quite apples to apples. AP is a sampling of subjective eye tests based primarily upon, of course, wins and losses. The S&P+ is based on play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness -- rate of running and preventing successful plays and the degree of success achieved or prevented -- adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

Based on this five-year stretch, the S&P+ system likes us a more than voters. But it wasn't alone. Another advanced stat system, the FEI, which measures the efficiency of drives instead of individual plays, had us at 8th in its final ranking (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei) this year, too. (And at 12th, 16th, 69th, and 19th from 2014 - 2017.) Both systems liked our 2018 offense more than we did (32nd in offensive S&P+ and 28th in offensive FEI), both systems gave due credit for the defense being elite this year (1st in S&P+ and 2nd in FEI), and both systems gave us props for playing a very difficult schedule (8th hardest schedule per the S&P+ and 7th hardest per the FEI). (Oddly, the systems sharply disagreed about our special teams. S&P+ thought they sucked (101st) and FEI thought they were great (15th). That's a pretty big difference. Weird.)


Thank you! I thought our special teams were OK. Probably just a difference between metrics. I think the new punter will help us be elite in special teams next year.


S&p+ is losing me some when I look at its 10 best teams...

1. Bama
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. LSU
6. Ohio st
7. Auburn
8. State
9. Florida
10. Michigan

This is post-bowl games too

ETA... s&p+ says OM had the 6th best offense in the country and the 33rd best team


It's confusing to you because to "make your points" you often take out OOC games because they go against the point you are trying to make when you are criticizing Joe.


Our final AP ranking was lower than our preseason AP ranking in 2015, the same in 2016, and higher in 2014 and 2017. Our final S&P+ ranking was lower than our preseason S&P+ ranking in 2016, the same in 2015, and higher in 2014 and 2017. So depending upon what you're looking at, we under-performed in 2015 and 2016, too. And for whatever it's worth, those two seasons were frustrating in their own right, too. (Especially thinking about having Dak as a senior in 2015 and what he did the following year in Dallas. We were Top 3 or 4 in the SEC in several offensive categories that year and yet were stifled by a sub-par D (see A&M and U. Miss. losses) and a befuddling approach to the run game (see, uh, the entire season).)


Yep. Dan was just as frustrating at times as Joe this past year.


Dak was probably the difference in going bowling that year. Could you imagine if Dan had Damian Williams with Holloway up the middle?

I think we all saw what it would have looked like when we lost to South Alabama in 2016.

[Todd4State]

We just need a QB that can consistently run the offense and WRs that can catch the ball. If we get both of those things then 8-4 or maybe 9-3 is possible but I would still be happy if we get to 7-5. It doesn't have to be KT but he has playmaking ability so hopefully he gets comfortable in the offense.


I agree. I think KT will be an upgrade over Nick in terms of throwing a more catchable ball which will result in fewer drops and will make better reads in the run game which will lead to fewer goal line debacles like LSU and Iowa.

[msstate7]

Thank you! I thought our special teams were OK. Probably just a difference between metrics. I think the new punter will help us be elite in special teams next year.




It's confusing to you because to "make your points" you often take out OOC games because they go against the point you are trying to make when you are criticizing Joe.




Yep. Dan was just as frustrating at times as Joe this past year.



I think we all saw what it would have looked like when we lost to South Alabama in 2016.

Do you think Alabama and Georgia are better than Clemson? Do you think auburn is the 4th best team in the sec? Do you think Kentucky is worse than Florida, Missouri, penn state, and us despite beating all of them? Texas is the 32nd ranked team... right ahead of ole miss at 33?

ETA... someone should tweet this to malzahn. He can show his fanbase that auburn was actually the #8 team in the country this year

[Dawgcap]

The thing is does the line improve? Is the defense close to what it was this past year? Are our receivers better? I think we will be comparable on D. And our O line and receivers should be better so it boils down to the player KT becomes. Does he mature as football player? By that I mean learning the offense( make correct reads) and improve as a passer. I think another year of maturity and the chance to win this team and prove everyone wrong makes for a chance of a improvement in the win column. If we have a different qb starting or playing a lot early next year we could be in trouble

[Dawgcap]

My biggest issue last year with Moorhead was when everyone was griping about Fitz he played KT one series in a game. We ran 3 plays. Lost about 6 yards and he was done with him. The thing was I felt the 3 plays he played that series weren’t exactly set up for a qb to succeed. I also didn’t feel the players helped him out. Can’t remember the exact game but I remember thinking what a crappy on the field interview based on play calls and the line being blown up.

[Turfdawg67]

I agree. I think KT will be an upgrade over Nick in terms of throwing a more catchable ball which will result in fewer drops and will make better reads in the run game which will lead to fewer goal line debacles like LSU and Iowa.

In Key I trust!! I think he's gonna be a beast, running and throwing!

[msstate7]

My biggest issue last year with Moorhead was when everyone was griping about Fitz he played KT one series in a game. We ran 3 plays. Lost about 6 yards and he was done with him. The thing was I felt the 3 plays he played that series weren’t exactly set up for a qb to succeed. I also didn’t feel the players helped him out. Can’t remember the exact game but I remember thinking what a crappy on the field interview based on play calls and the line being blown up.

aTm... 3 straight blitzes. 3rd one was a roughing the passer, and fitz came back in

[Todd4State]

Do you think Alabama and Georgia are better than Clemson? Do you think auburn is the 4th best team in the sec? Do you think Kentucky is worse than Florida, Missouri, penn state, and us despite beating all of them? Texas is the 32nd ranked team... right ahead of ole miss at 33?

ETA... someone should tweet this to malzahn. He can show his fanbase that auburn was actually the #8 team in the country this year

You tell me. You are the one that uses it to support your points. Interesting that you seem to think it's a flawed stat despite referring to it quite often.

[Todd4State]

My biggest issue last year with Moorhead was when everyone was griping about Fitz he played KT one series in a game. We ran 3 plays. Lost about 6 yards and he was done with him. The thing was I felt the 3 plays he played that series weren’t exactly set up for a qb to succeed. I also didn’t feel the players helped him out. Can’t remember the exact game but I remember thinking what a crappy on the field interview based on play calls and the line being blown up.

That was A&M. I think Key would have gotten more opportunities except for the fact that Nick played pretty well in that game and the rest of the season for that matter- 0 INT's until the Outback Bowl. I thought Key looked pretty good against Arkansas in garbage time- his pass to Austin Williams for a TD was very well executed.

[msstate7]

You tell me. You are the one that uses it to support your points. Interesting that you seem to think it's a flawed stat despite referring to it quite often.

Haha, true that.

I just found myself looking at where they rated these teams and was just wondering WTH

[Jack Lambert]

Our defense is going to be good. You can win some games with a good defense. Also I think the offense will be more comfortable with Moorhead's offense.

[Pit Bull]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/2/11/18219163/2019-college-football-rankings-projections

Have to say, the sportswriters and analytics seem to like the 2019 team. Critical year for Moorhead.

Unless, Lovett, Pickering, and Crumedy can step up as disrupters in the DL, I got 6-6 as our low limit and 7-5 as our upper limit. We've simply lost too much on D and quite a bit on O to be a thorn in the SEC. Now, in 2020, I forsee a bigger improvement.