Signing Day, uh, stats?

[Prediction? Pain.]

So, I logged on during my lunch break to see how things shook out today and found us all in the throes of what appeared to be an unmitigated disaster. Moorhead's as good as fired, the state's high school players have turned against MSU as an institution, fire and brimstone coming down from the skies, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together . . . mass hysteria.

Well, balls. So I go over to 24/7 to see what the hell happened. Confusion sets in. I don't follow this stuff very closely and I don't mean to make light of whatever legitimate failures the staff had, but don't the "rankings," such as they are, reflect at least some degree of success? I mean, here are MSU's 24/7's composite rankings for the past decade:

2009 - 18th
2010 - 30th
2011 - 41st
2012 - 22nd
2013 - 24th
2014 - 36th
2015 - 18th
2016 - 28th
2017 - 24th
2018 - 27th
2019 - 23rd

So by the composite ranking, this year's the 4th highest in the past 11 years.

But if you look past that composite and go to what appears to be the metric of the quality of the individual players -- i.e. our players' average rating -- this is actually the best class we've had in those 11 years. As of 1:45 p.m. (eastern), the average rating of a player in our class is 88.64. That's the highest player average we've had in the past 11 years. Until now, we'd never had that number hit above 87.69, and that was in 2015, the year after Dak and Co. took the world by storm. In fact, only three times in Mullen's tenure did we even hit the 87 mark. Here are the numbers and their corresponding national rank:

2009 - 86.96 (19th)
2010 - 84.41 (46th)
2011 - 83.23 (44th)
2012 - 85.99 (29th)
2013 - 86.22 (24th)
2014 - 84.84 (33rd)
2015 - 87.69 (20th)
2016 - 87.08 (24th)
2017 - 86.11 (27th)
2018 - 87.20 (26th)
2019 - 88.64 (19th)

Given that 89/90 is the cuttoff where composite 4-star rankings begin and that having a roster with more 4+ star dudes than 3-star dudes is apparently necessary to get us where we want to go (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/22/17606048/blue-chip-ratio-2018), getting an 88.64 average seems to be an okay first step. It's not good enough, obviously, but I'm thinking it's not quite yet the end of times. I think . . . .

TL;DR:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sbFhOeqTzY

[msstate7]

Mullen proved he could outperform his recruiting rankings in conf. How many sec coaches have done that? Should we assume joe will too just bc Mullen did?

[bluelightstar]

Mullen proved he could outperform his recruiting rankings in conf. How many sec coaches have done that? Should we assume joe will too just bc Mullen did?


At this point, I think we should assume the opposite. #IOWA

[Gutter Cobreh]

Mullen proved he could outperform his recruiting rankings in conf. How many sec coaches have done that? Should we assume joe will too just bc Mullen did?

How exactly did he prove that? By being #1 for a couple weeks? Does that offset the losses in games we should have won?

Just trying to understand your shifting goalposts, as I would think what Prediction Pain points out for you would be right up your alley.

[ShotgunDawg]

Good post but IMO any evaluation of this recruiting class MUST include an acknowledgment of the amount of talent in Mississippi this year.

This year's effort with next year's instate talent pool could equal a 30+ ranked class.

[Rick Danko]

Mullen proved he could outperform his recruiting rankings in conf. How many sec coaches have done that? Should we assume joe will too just bc Mullen did?

Mullen in his first year tried Tyson Lee up the middle against LSU on the goal line. Were you ready to run him off then? Coaches need time to learn, yet there are so many on here that have already decided to write Moorhead off after one year. Give the guy a damn chance, if next year we regress more than what is already expected after what we lost, then yes let?s push the panic button. But my god ever since he lost to Kentucky he hasn?t stood a chance with some of y?all.

[msstate7]

How exactly did he prove that? By being #1 for a couple weeks? Does that offset the losses in games we should have won?

Just trying to understand your shifting goalposts, as I would think what Prediction Pain points out for you would be right up your alley.

I threw out LSU and Bama bc we aren't on par with them. I threw out ark bc we outrecruited them. Here's the rest of the west's record the last 5 years and avg recruiting ranking of the 5 years leading up to this stretch...

aTm = 20-20 (11th)
Auburn = 21-19 (8th)
Om = 17-23 (15th)
State = 21-19 (26th)

[bluelightstar]

Mullen in his first year tried Tyson Lee up the middle against LSU on the goal line. Were you ready to run him off then? Coaches need time to learn, yet there are so many on here that have already decided to write Moorhead off after one year. Give the guy a damn chance, if next year we regress more than what is already expected after what we lost, then yes let?s push the panic button. But my god ever since he lost to Kentucky he hasn?t stood a chance with some of y?all.

Are we comparing Mullen blowing it against #7 LSU in his first season to Moorhead putting up five croomish offensive performances in one year...?

[Gutter Cobreh]

I threw out LSU and Bama bc we aren't on par with them. I threw out ark bc we outrecruited them. Here's the rest of the west's record the last 5 years and avg recruiting ranking of the 5 years leading up to this stretch...

aTm = 20-20 (11th)
Auburn = 21-19 (8th)
Om = 17-23 (15th)
State = 21-19 (26th)

So you're counting OOC games into your numbers? You're also using Ole Miss when we know they were cheating to inflate their recruiting rankings?

I just want to make sure I'm following along...

[Rick Danko]

Are we comparing Mullen blowing it against #7 LSU in his first season to Moorhead putting up five croomish offensive performances in one year...?

I?m simply saying give him a chance to install his system with his players, not crucify him for mistakes he made year one. But I know I?m wasting my time, there are people who have simply made up their mind and will never give him a chance. I?m just glad my boss didn?t expect perfection year one in my job and allowed a learning curve...

[msstate7]

So you're counting OOC games into your numbers? You're also using Ole Miss when we know they were cheating to inflate their recruiting rankings?

I just want to make sure I'm following along...
No, that's why there are only 40 games over 5 years (8 conference games x 5 years = 40 games).

[Bass Chaser]

Mullen proved he could outperform his recruiting rankings in conf. How many sec coaches have done that? Should we assume joe will too just bc Mullen did?

Did he or did other schools not play to their recruiting rankings?

[Ari Gold]

Good post but IMO any evaluation of this recruiting class MUST include an acknowledgment of the amount of talent in Mississippi this year.

This year's effort with next year's instate talent pool could equal a 30+ ranked class.

First off Charles Cross wasn’t even ranked this time last year. If he was it was the token 3 star
There will be more 2020 guys Ranked once they get looked at
It was known 2 years ago this class was going to be a roller coaster and it was
Also the juco class was extremely weak this year in state . That could change next year as well
And finally and I have stated this before WE HAVE TO RECRUIT OUTSIDE THE STATE BETTER... you saw a little of that this year with this staff... landed a couple of big time guys and swung and missed on others. Keep swinging and we might land a few of these guys .. hopefully that will continue to be a trend

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

First off Charles Cross wasn’t even ranked this time last year. If he was it was the token 3 star
There will be more 2020 guys Ranked once they get looked at
It was known 2 years ago this class was going to be a roller coaster and it was
Also the juco class was extremely weak this year in state . That could change next year as well
And finally and I have stated this before WE HAVE TO RECRUIT OUTSIDE THE STATE BETTER... you saw a little of that this year with this staff... landed a couple of big time guys and swung and missed on others. Keep swinging and we might land a few of these guys .. hopefully that will continue to be a trend

Good post and I'd like to add that with out of state kids, I think we need to find a way to be more discerning in who we target. Shrader and King Ani, as far as i know, didn't really have a college team they liked, and so we had a shot. But guys like James and Washington did, and they used us as placeholders till they got that instate offer they wanted. Well Washington did, James apparently thought a lot of out of state options were better than us.

Point is we spend all this effort on a kid that's far away an unfamiliar with our school, only to lose him because he's partial to other schools ahead of us and if he's worth a damn they eventually come calling. If there's a way to find the impartial out of state guys and target them alone i think we'd get more bang for our buck than we did this class

[Ari Gold]

Good post and I'd like to add that with out of state kids, I think we need to find a way to be more discerning in who we target. Shrader and King Ani, as far as i know, didn't really have a college team they liked, and so we had a shot. But guys like James and Washington did, and they used us as placeholders till they got that instate offer they wanted. Well Washington did, James apparently thought a lot of out of state options were better than us.

Point is we spend all this effort on a kid that's far away an unfamiliar with our school, only to lose him because he's partial to other schools ahead of us and if he's worth a damn they eventually come calling. If there's a way to find the impartial out of state guys and target them alone i think we'd get more bang for our buck than we did this class

I think the biggest learning curve not only for Joe but other teams and coaches outside of Bama / Clemson ect is they have to find a way to make the DJ James and Washingtons sign in the early signing period
That IMO should be our objective next year. Do everything possible to get these kids Signed and December and push them to enroll early if possible.

[IMissJack]

Good post but IMO any evaluation of this recruiting class MUST include an acknowledgment of the amount of talent in Mississippi this year.

This year's effort with next year's instate talent pool could equal a 30+ ranked class.

Not to mention that we still are not recruiting against OM at full strength. We should have done better, and the let down season affected it.

[ShotgunDawg]

Good post and I'd like to add that with out of state kids, I think we need to find a way to be more discerning in who we target. Shrader and King Ani, as far as i know, didn't really have a college team they liked, and so we had a shot. But guys like James and Washington did, and they used us as placeholders till they got that instate offer they wanted. Well Washington did, James apparently thought a lot of out of state options were better than us.

Point is we spend all this effort on a kid that's far away an unfamiliar with our school, only to lose him because he's partial to other schools ahead of us and if he's worth a damn they eventually come calling. If there's a way to find the impartial out of state guys and target them alone i think we'd get more bang for our buck than we did this class

One major issue we have with out of state recruiting is that we are next door neighbors with the two states in which the their instate kids have the most loyalty to the in-state schools as any states in the entire country.

Seriously, is there more loyalty to the instate schools more than Alabama & Louisiana. If we could take some of the players they want, it would be fine losing ours, but we don't have that stroke for whatever reason

[Todd4State]

First off Charles Cross wasn’t even ranked this time last year. If he was it was the token 3 star
There will be more 2020 guys Ranked once they get looked at
It was known 2 years ago this class was going to be a roller coaster and it was
Also the juco class was extremely weak this year in state . That could change next year as well
And finally and I have stated this before WE HAVE TO RECRUIT OUTSIDE THE STATE BETTER... you saw a little of that this year with this staff... landed a couple of big time guys and swung and missed on others. Keep swinging and we might land a few of these guys .. hopefully that will continue to be a trend

It's going to very rare that we find and sign a four star out of state player. Our best chance to land four and five stars is to recruit in state better. I'm not sure that I can recall us signing a 5 star OOS player. I think we need to show a little more effort to recruit certain in state players a little bit better. Do more things like give scholarships to friends. If we give one to Norsworthy odds are high that we would have gotten Ealy. Or it forces Ole Miss to give a scholarship to Norsworthy which causes them to lose out on someone else. Just an example. It just seems like we don't do those types of things enough.

[Todd4State]

I think the biggest learning curve not only for Joe but other teams and coaches outside of Bama / Clemson ect is they have to find a way to make the DJ James and Washingtons sign in the early signing period
That IMO should be our objective next year. Do everything possible to get these kids Signed and December and push them to enroll early if possible.

I do agree with this. I'm inclined to say that if someone doesn't sign in the early signing period we need to make sure that we have some back-up plans ready to go.

[Todd4State]

One major issue we have with out of state recruiting is that we are next door neighbors with the two states in which the their instate kids have the most loyalty to the in-state schools as any states in the entire country.

Seriously, is there more loyalty to the instate schools more than Alabama & Louisiana. If we could take some of the players they want, it would be fine losing ours, but we don't have that stroke for whatever reason

That's because we have two SEC schools in this state and poor state pride in general. In other words players want to go out of state. Alabama, Auburn, and LSU have all played for National Titles within the last 10-15 years. That's a factor in wanting to stay too. If we ever go 12-0 even that may change things for us too. Getting our ass kicked by Alabama every year and losing consistently to LSU and Auburn also effects things as well. Those states also have boosters that make damn sure that the players that they want stay in state as well. Our boosters for whatever reason are not able to do it as consistently for in state players.

[Ari Gold]

It's going to very rare that we find and sign a four star out of state player. Our best chance to land four and five stars is to recruit in state better. I'm not sure that I can recall us signing a 5 star OOS player. I think we need to show a little more effort to recruit certain in state players a little bit better. Do more things like give scholarships to friends. If we give one to Norsworthy odds are high that we would have gotten Ealy. Or it forces Ole Miss to give a scholarship to Norsworthy which causes them to lose out on someone else. Just an example. It just seems like we don't do those types of things enough.

There is very little difference in prob 80-90% of players That are high 3’s and low to mid 4’s ..
These kids are out there all over the country just have to identify them get the ones that fit your program and close them early..
I never expect us to sign half a dozen 4star out of state guys.. Example the talent in Ga is sick. Some of the Kids ranked in 45-30 there are prob top 15 talent in this state.

I just don’t get all worked up if we miss out on a few instate kids. It’s great to keep all the big time talent at home but when ur having Bama / Aub / LSU / UGA getting a few of the guys every year and then having to split the rest with OM you have to get out of state lines and get guys ..

[dawgday166]

Mullen proved he could outperform his recruiting rankings in conf. How many sec coaches have done that? Should we assume joe will too just bc Mullen did?

Dude ... are you just in your arguing mode or what?? Mullen did that OVER TIME. He didn't do it the first 5 years he was here at all. If anything he under performed IMO. And God forbid we have 8 wins going into an Egg Bowl ... a certain loss when that was the case.

We just got a class that is typically where we land WHEN we have close to our best classes. 18 to 24 or so. Joe may end up putting crap on the field and he certainly didn't do much with the offense this year, but to say he can't get to Mullen's level at this point of his being a HC is complete bullshit. Not saying he will but ... we have absolutely no way of knowing for sure yet.

Joe is taking a pounding from some of our fanbase that he doesn't deserve at all IMO. The class was loaded, we missed on 3 to 4 we probably truly wanted, but 2 of those were to Saban who pretty much gets who he wants (except Simmons & Pickering maybe). We did miss on some WRs but this class really played out in typical Mullen style honestly. If Mullen was here probably would've gotten the same results. Then he'd coach his ass off to try to get out of Starkville as soon as possible, go into the Egg Bowl with 8 wins, and promptly lose to a 6 or 7 win OM team.

ETA: And our misses weren't because of lack of effort. In the past that has been the case many times.

[dawgday166]

At this point, I think we should assume the opposite. #IOWA

Mullen seems to have become a bigger legend after the fact than he was while he was here. #South Alabama #Miami, OH.

[maroonmania]

Mullen seems to have become a bigger legend after the fact than he was while he was here. #South Alabama #Miami, OH.

I feel our opinion of Mullen would be quite different than it is if Mullen hadn't been so fortunate as to get a 3 star QB named Dak Prescott.

[msstate7]

Mullen seems to have become a bigger legend after the fact than he was while he was here. #South Alabama #Miami, OH.

Coming back and punking joe certainly helped his legendary status.

[msstate7]

I feel our opinion of Mullen would be quite different than it is if Mullen hadn't been so fortunate as to get a 3 star QB named Dak Prescott.

Dan found, signed, and developed dak.

[dawgday166]

Coming back and punking joe certainly helped his legendary status.

I said before last year that we shouldn't take FL lightly ... they had talent. The majority of everyone else said it was a sure win. FL was not without talent this past year, it was just 1 year younger talent than us and per recruiting rankings, they had more talent.

Yea .. he punked Joe but ... Mullen is in his, IDK off the top of my head but, around his 15th year or so in the SEC. Plus he mentored under a great coach in the SEC. He also has finally found his pretty good DC that ain't running out the door the first chance he gets too.

I'm not saying Joe will be great but dammit ... no one will give him the chance. And I can damn shore guess that most on here that are blasting him don't and never have performed their jobs half as good as they expect him to. Now he does make big $$, but I do think he deserves a little bit of time to figure out how this SEC crap works some. Just saying.

This recruiting class played out like every other class with one exception as I stated before ... when we missed it wasn't because of lack of effort.

[maroonmania]

Dan found, signed, and developed dak.

And I given Dan credit for that but we did almost lose him to LSU. But I don't think even our staff knew how special Dak would become.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Mullen proved he could outperform his recruiting rankings in conf. How many sec coaches have done that? Should we assume joe will too just bc Mullen did?

Did he though? Starting in the '12 season, I put the 4 year recruiting averages in ():

2012: Finished 8-5, were ranked entering the Egg Bowl but dropped out. Performance right where the recruiting (#28) says it should be.

2013: Finished 7-6, lost to ever ranked team we played. Probably a slight underperformance overall (#29)

2014: Finished 10-3, and ranked #11. Massive overperformance of the (#31) ranking.

2015: Finished 9-4, flirted with being ranked most of the year. What you'd expect given our roster (#25).

2016: Finished 6-7, absolutely massive underperformance of the (#26) roster. Final S&P+ had us #56.

2017: Finished 8-4 under Mullen, ranked #24 at the time of Mullen's departure. Near as makes no difference equal performance to the (#26) recruiting ranking.

So we had a 0, small -, big +, 0, big -, and a 0. Add them up and you get a 0

Mullen really didn't overperform. What he did do was catch some poorly coached better recruiting teams like LSU or A&M, and so made it look like he did better than he should. media was always amazed we weren't 1-7 in the conference so the narrative was that he overperformed. But the numbers don't really bear that out

[msstate7]

Did he though? Starting in the '12 season, I put the 4 year recruiting averages in ():

2012: Finished 8-5, were ranked entering the Egg Bowl but dropped out. Performance right where the recruiting (#28) says it should be.

2013: Finished 7-6, lost to ever ranked team we played. Probably a slight underperformance overall (#29)

2014: Finished 10-3, and ranked #11. Massive overperformance of the (#31) ranking.

2015: Finished 9-4, flirted with being ranked most of the year. What you'd expect given our roster (#25).

2016: Finished 6-7, absolutely massive underperformance of the (#26) roster. Final S&P+ had us #56.

2017: Finished 8-4 under Mullen, ranked #24 at the time of Mullen's departure. Near as makes no difference equal performance to the (#26) recruiting ranking.

So we had a 0, small -, big +, 0, big -, and a 0. Add them up and you get a 0

Mullen really didn't overperform. What he did do was catch some poorly coached better recruiting teams like LSU or A&M, and so made it look like he did better than he should. media was always amazed we weren't 1-7 in the conference so the narrative was that he overperformed. But the numbers don't really bear that out

Every one of those years, we faced at least 5 teams that recruited better than us. Like this season, we?re #23 nationally and 7th in the sec west. There?s no way every team can live up to their recruiting rankings bc they all play each other... someone has to lose

[Really Clark?]

Did he though? Starting in the '12 season, I put the 4 year recruiting averages in ():

2012: Finished 8-5, were ranked entering the Egg Bowl but dropped out. Performance right where the recruiting (#28) says it should be.

2013: Finished 7-6, lost to ever ranked team we played. Probably a slight underperformance overall (#29)

2014: Finished 10-3, and ranked #11. Massive overperformance of the (#31) ranking.

2015: Finished 9-4, flirted with being ranked most of the year. What you'd expect given our roster (#25).

2016: Finished 6-7, absolutely massive underperformance of the (#26) roster. Final S&P+ had us #56.

2017: Finished 8-4 under Mullen, ranked #24 at the time of Mullen's departure. Near as makes no difference equal performance to the (#26) recruiting ranking.

So we had a 0, small -, big +, 0, big -, and a 0. Add them up and you get a 0

Mullen really didn't overperform. What he did do was catch some poorly coached better recruiting teams like LSU or A&M, and so made it look like he did better than he should. media was always amazed we weren't 1-7 in the conference so the narrative was that he overperformed. But the numbers don't really bear that out

That’s good but need to compare our opponents rankings during those seasons as well. Not to mention you have to give a major over performance for the 2010 season in comparing to our opponents in the SEC West. Considered the best division for one conference in 2010-2012 really. Top 2 teams in the country for 2011 season as well.

[Todd4State]

There is very little difference in prob 80-90% of players That are high 3’s and low to mid 4’s ..
These kids are out there all over the country just have to identify them get the ones that fit your program and close them early..
I never expect us to sign half a dozen 4star out of state guys.. Example the talent in Ga is sick. Some of the Kids ranked in 45-30 there are prob top 15 talent in this state.

I just don’t get all worked up if we miss out on a few instate kids. It’s great to keep all the big time talent at home but when ur having Bama / Aub / LSU / UGA getting a few of the guys every year and then having to split the rest with OM you have to get out of state lines and get guys ..

I think the big reason why I disagree is because Mississippi is notoriously underrated every year. There are always Johnthan Banks, Benardrick McKinney, and this year- Javious Purvis every year. Look at Jonathan Abram and Elgton Jenkins as well. Those are two guys that have a chance to be drafted in the first or second round and neither one was a four star unless I'm mistaken about Abram. Of course you could go back to Jerry Rice and Brett Favre too. So that's why I never bought or agreed with the 45th best guy in Florida is the same as the 15th best in Mississippi. To me if you are a 3 star in Texas that means that you are a three star in Mississippi. Or at least it should based on how they intend to rate players.

That said I think you basically can lump players into two groups- the "known" talents who are the 4-5 star guys that everyone knows about. And then the 3 star guys. We need to get our share of both- and no doubt we need to do better with the four star guys. But I'll say I think that we have done a better job of finding the three star guys that have become really talented players that we used to miss pre-Dan. And I don't think we should go away from that. Especially when it seems like most of the out of state players are just using us as a back-up plan until they get the "offer they really want"- usually from their home state. Yes, getting the three stars will hurt our recruiting ranking but we consistently outperform that on the field.