Alabama game preview

[jwells]

#22 Mississippi State (15-4, 3-3 SEC) at Alabama (13-7, 3-3 SEC)
Tip: 7:30 PM CT TV: SEC Network
Line: Alabama -1.5

Mississippi State looks to build off the win over Auburn with a road trip to take on the Tide.

Alabama Team Stats

PPG: 75.5 MSU: 78.4
PPG Allowed: 71.4 MSU: 69.4
FG%: 44.9% MSU: 47.3%
FGA%: 43.1% MSU: 44.1%
3P%: 34.4% MSU: 37.6%
3PA%: 33.9% MSU: 35.4%

Alabama Team Leaders

Kira Lewis Jr. (Fr.): 13.9 ppg, 2.8 apg
Donta Hall (Sr.): 11.3 ppg, 8.9 rpg
John Petty (So.): 11.7 ppg, 46.2% 3P% in SEC play

Following Saturday night's win over Auburn, the Bulldogs look to build some momentum for the 1st time in a while as they take on Alabama. Alabama is one of the few teams I have not seen much of this year but what I have has been extremely up and down. A prime example of this is beating Kentucky only to lose to Texas A&M a week later. You never really know what you are going to get from the Tide. When they play well, though, they are a very difficult team to beat, especially in Coleman Coliseum. The Tide are led by John Petty in SEC play with 14.5 ppg in the league, including 30 at Tennessee a few games ago. He is the definition of a streaky shooter and it is imperative that the Bulldogs contest his shots to not allow him to get into any sort of rhythm. In addition to Petty, freshman PG Kira Lewis Jr. has been getting acclimated to the league and is capable of hitting big shots. Big man Donta Hall has been coming on well in SEC play averaging 11.8 ppg and an impressive 10.8 rpg in league play. It is no doubt a concern with the options we have in the post that Hall may be able to have a big night. In my opinion, it would be more advantageous for us to focus on limiting Petty and the others and letting the chips fall where they may with Hall.

On the offensive end for Mississippi State, it is key to continue the performance from the latter part of the 2nd half Saturday night. The adjustments made to penetrate the lane put the offense at its best and hopefully the team understands that and will look to continue. Doing so lends itself to open shots and therefore easier baskets. Reggie Perry has played well in our wins in league play and it is important that he continue to see the floor as his interior offense is something that Ado cannot consistently offer. With Perry though, it is important he not get frustrated when the ball is not given to him in the post. It seemed as though against Auburn he let his lack of post touches affect his intensity level. With that being said, when he seals a defender and has good position, we must do a better job of getting the ball to him. If we can execute in our penetrating offense, we will be a tough team to beat going forward.

Overall, it comes down to if we can execute the same way we did to close the game Saturday when we have to go on the road. This week is important with two big road games at Alabama and Ole Miss. While 2 wins will give us a lot of momentum, it is key that we win at least one this week. Winning tonight would take some pressure off of the team heading to Oxford. However, I just do not know if the team has fully turned the corner and I have been burned many times before. I think it will be a close game with Alabama pulling out a narrow win in the end due to being on their home floor. Hopefully, this is not the case and the team captures some momentum from Auburn.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Nick will have to stick with Petty like he did Bryce Brown on Saturday and we'll have to find a way to not let Hall have a ton of offensive rebounds. This means either Holman needs to step the f*** up with rebounding or we need to just platoon Ado, Perry, and Woodard and hope no one has foul trouble. It's a winnable game for sure, but on the road in the SEC is never a cakewalk. I think we find a way to win. 72-65 Dawgs

[jwells]

Nick will have to stick with Petty like he did Bryce Brown on Saturday and we'll have to find a way to not let Hall have a ton of offensive rebounds. This means either Holman needs to step the f*** up with rebounding or we need to just platoon Ado, Perry, and Woodard and hope no one has foul trouble. It's a winnable game for sure, but on the road in the SEC is never a cakewalk. I think we find a way to win. 72-65 Dawgs

No it is never easy on the road. Yea we need to Nick/Tyson to give us confidence guarding Petty and hope the bigs rotating is effective enough to slow Hall down on the glass. I may be jinxing us but I don't think Hall can beat us alone so if we have to put an emphasis on someone, I would make Hall try to be the one to score.

[PMDawg]

#22 Mississippi State (15-4, 3-3 SEC) at Alabama (13-7, 3-3 SEC)
Tip: 7:30 PM CT TV: SEC Network
Line: Alabama -1.5

Mississippi State looks to build off the win over Auburn with a road trip to take on the Tide.

Alabama Team Stats

PPG: 75.5 MSU: 78.4
PPG Allowed: 71.4 MSU: 69.4
FG%: 44.9% MSU: 47.3%
FGA%: 43.1% MSU: 44.1%
3P%: 34.4% MSU: 37.6%
3PA%: 33.9% MSU: 35.4%

Alabama Team Leaders

Kira Lewis Jr. (Fr.): 13.9 ppg, 2.8 apg
Donta Hall (Sr.): 11.3 ppg, 8.9 rpg
John Petty (So.): 11.7 ppg, 46.2% 3P% in SEC play

Following Saturday night's win over Auburn, the Bulldogs look to build some momentum for the 1st time in a while as they take on Alabama. Alabama is one of the few teams I have not seen much of this year but what I have has been extremely up and down. A prime example of this is beating Kentucky only to lose to Texas A&M a week later. You never really know what you are going to get from the Tide. When they play well, though, they are a very difficult team to beat, especially in Coleman Coliseum. The Tide are led by John Petty in SEC play with 14.5 ppg in the league, including 30 at Tennessee a few games ago. He is the definition of a streaky shooter and it is imperative that the Bulldogs contest his shots to not allow him to get into any sort of rhythm. In addition to Petty, freshman PG Kira Lewis Jr. has been getting acclimated to the league and is capable of hitting big shots. Big man Donta Hall has been coming on well in SEC play averaging 11.8 ppg and an impressive 10.8 rpg in league play. It is no doubt a concern with the options we have in the post that Hall may be able to have a big night. In my opinion, it would be more advantageous for us to focus on limiting Petty and the others and letting the chips fall where they may with Hall.

On the offensive end for Mississippi State, it is key to continue the performance from the latter part of the 2nd half Saturday night. The adjustments made to penetrate the lane put the offense at its best and hopefully the team understands that and will look to continue. Doing so lends itself to open shots and therefore easier baskets. Reggie Perry has played well in our wins in league play and it is important that he continue to see the floor as his interior offense is something that Ado cannot consistently offer. With Perry though, it is important he not get frustrated when the ball is not given to him in the post. It seemed as though against Auburn he let his lack of post touches affect his intensity level. With that being said, when he seals a defender and has good position, we must do a better job of getting the ball to him. If we can execute in our penetrating offense, we will be a tough team to beat going forward.

Overall, it comes down to if we can execute the same way we did to close the game Saturday when we have to go on the road. This week is important with two big road games at Alabama and Ole Miss. While 2 wins will give us a lot of momentum, it is key that we win at least one this week. Winning tonight would take some pressure off of the team heading to Oxford. However, I just do not know if the team has fully turned the corner and I have been burned many times before. I think it will be a close game with Alabama pulling out a narrow win in the end due to being on their home floor. Hopefully, this is not the case and the team captures some momentum from Auburn.

Bama 80
State 71

[MarketingBully]

Bama 80
State 71

Bama doesn’t score that much. I think it will be a close game but Holman has to defend. If he doesn’t defend and continues to play like he has the past six games we are in trouble. Mack and Norris will light us up if Holman doesn’t close out and run them off the 3 point line. That imo is the key. Does Holman show up defensively or not and if he doesn’t does Howland have the balls to get him out of there quickly. If Holman shows up or Howland takes his ass out if he doesn’t and sits him on the bench for extensive minutes, we will be fine. If Holman doesn’t show up and he plays 20+ minutes, we will lose. Holman actually showed up defensively down the stretch against Auburn and did just enough to not hurt us. Holman’s effort defensively is the key to us getting where we want to go.

[parabrave]

"Oh no" Jwells MBB preview; the kiss of death.*** Just going off a thread from Sat about you not posting and the team winning. But you have great insight on the games and it is greatly appreciated. Hopefully Nick and Q can find their inner Timmy Bowers for this game.

[Gutter Cobreh]

When UT finally locked Petty down at the end of their game, they pulled out the win. Dude was killing them from all over the court. Not sure we have a lock down defender that can match and follow him. If so, we have shot at winning.

If not, it's going to be a long game especially the way our team gets "tourettes" at times and just heaves shots up Harlem Globetrotters style.

[BuckyIsAB****]

You do a great job with these man.

That said, I have 0 confidence we win this game

[jwells]

You do a great job with these man.

That said, I have 0 confidence we win this game

Thanks. I appreciate it. Trying to do the best I can to get people bought back in. But I unfortunately agree with you. I haven't seen anything that makes me think we will be able to go in to Tuscaloosa and win. Really hope they prove us wrong though because this could be a game that really gets us going if we can win.

[jwells]

Also, will finally get around to the bracket update and post it after tonight's games. As of right now, we are probably around a 7 seed with room to improve due to our overall strength of schedule and Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. We can improve to 4-1 in Quad 1 games with a win tonight.

[Ari Gold]

Prop bet... if we get beat this game Riley Norris has a career high.

[ScoobaDawg]

Some other things to know...

https://hailstate.com/news/2019/1/28/mens-basketball-gameday-five-things-to-know-about-no-22-msu-alabama.aspx

The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide will play their home-and-home series over the next two weeks. Alabama makes its return trip to Humphrey Coliseum on Feb. 12 and holds a 124-75 series advantage. Mississippi State will look for its second win in Tuscaloosa under fourth-year coach Ben Howland (https://hailstate.com/coaches.aspx?rc=1989).

FIVE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE
1. Mississippi State is one of two SEC teams and one of 16 teams nationally to secure at least eight Quad 1 and Quad 2 victories. The Bulldogs have won three of their last four games and are coming off a 92-84 victory over then No. 16 Auburn. It marked MSU's first win facing a ranked opponent as a ranked team since the 2003-04 season. Of the team's 12 remaining regular season contests, seven are currently Quad 1 opportunities which include tomorrow's matchup at Alabama.

2. Quinndary Weatherspoon (https://hailstate.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4943) poured in a season-high tying 27 points against Auburn last time out. It marked his seventh game of 20-plus points on the season. Mississippi State has won 13 consecutive games over the last two seasons and is 21-2 overall when Weatherspoon amasses 20 or more points. He has garnered double figures in 16 of 18 games, and the 17.3 points per game are second on the SEC leaderboard. Weatherspoon is the SEC's active leader in points (1,712) and steals (168), both are top five marks in the MSU record book. He has improved his rebounding mark to 6.5 in SEC games with 30 of his 39 boards coming on the defensive end.

3. Lamar Peters (https://hailstate.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4940) worked his way to his first career double-double with 16 points and 10 assists versus Auburn. He is one of 11 major conference players to secure over 200 points and 100 assists in 2018-19 according to Stat Pass. The 10 assists enabled Peters to move past Jack Bouldin (1970-71-72) for 8th place on MSU's all-time list. Peters has chipped in double digit points in nine of his last 12 appearances. He is averaging 16.0 points per game at home compared to 9.0 points per game on the road during SEC play.

4. Nick Weatherspoon (https://hailstate.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4942) has provided double figures in four of his last seven games and in 11 of 19 games on the season. His 10.7 points per game versus SEC opponents is third on the team. Mississippi State is 26-9 when Nick Weatherspoon (https://hailstate.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4942) posts double figures and 22-8 when both Weatherspoon brothers dial up 10-plus points. On the defensive end, Weatherspoon has added a team-leading 10 steals during conference play and his 1.7 per game rate is fifth in the SEC rankings.

5. MSU's legacy bench of Tyson Carter (https://hailstate.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4934), Reggie Perry (https://hailstate.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4950) and Robert Woodard II (https://hailstate.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4951) has collected 21.0 points per game … All three players are sons of former Mississippi State standouts … Carter has come away with double figures in 12 of 19 games this season … The Bulldogs are 22-3 over the last two seasons when Carter goes for 10 or more points … Perry is coming off his second career double-double with 10 points and 11 rebounds during the Auburn game … He has averaged 11.4 points per game over his last eight home games … Perry tallied season's best for a road/neutral game with eight points and eight rebounds at No. 8 Kentucky … Aric Holman (https://hailstate.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4939) and Abdul Ado (https://hailstate.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4933) have combined for 62 of MSU's 98 blocks on the season … Both players are ranked inside the program's top 10 headed by Holman whose 188 rejections are fourth … Holman checks in among the top 10 of SEC active players in points (928 -10th), rebounds (626 – 4th) and blocks (188 – 2nd).

KNOW YOUR OPPONENT
Alabama has split its last four league games but already has dialed up a pair of home wins against ranked opponents in No. 13 Kentucky (77-75) and No. 20 Ole Miss (74-53) on Jan. 5 and Jan. 22, respectively. The Crimson Tide also played No. 3 Tennessee (71-68) to a three-point decision on Jan. 19 in Knoxville.

Alabama's top scorer is freshman Kira Lewis, Jr (13.9 PPG, 2.8 APG). He has pumped in double figures 13 times which includes six of his last eight outings. Lewis, Jr. surpassed the 20-point mark in four non-conference games highlighted by a 24-point outburst versus Wichita State (Nov. 18). His SEC season's best was 15 points at LSU (Jan. 8).

John Petty, Jr. (11.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG) has been explosive off the bench during SEC action. He equaled his career-best with 30 points aided by six three-pointers at No. 3 Tennessee (Jan. 19). The Lewis-Petty combo has accounted for 71 of the team's 138 treys on the season. Petty, Jr. has upped his scoring average to 14.9 points and buried 3.0 three-pointers per game versus SEC opponents.

Alabama's interior play has been headed by Donta Hall (11.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 2.1 BPG) and Tevin Mack (8.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG). Hall is the SEC's leader in double-doubles with 10 and notched a double-double in four of his last five games. His 8.9 rebounds and 2.1 rebounds are ranked inside the SEC's Top 5. Hall has racked up 10-plus points a team-leading 15 occasions fueled by 12 of his last 13 appearances. Mack, a transfer from Texas, was a key cog in the Kentucky victory with 22 points and is coming off a 15-point effort in his return to the Big 12 at Baylor as part of last weekend's SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

[MetEdDawg]

Someone explain how the hell Bama is a 2.5 point favorite? That is shocking to me.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

I just have a gut feeling that we pick up a W tonight.

[Political Hack]

I hope we win but I think their bigs are too athletic and too long for us. They're tougher than us and better athletes down low. That's going to be difficult to match up with. I think we can neutralize one another outside, but they're going to abuse us down low. If we can get them in foul trouble and Ado and the frosh play well, we can pull it out. However I think Bama is going to give us more than we can handle.

[Turfdawg67]

"Oh no" Jwells MBB preview; the kiss of death.*** Just going off a thread from Sat about you not posting and the team winning. But you have great insight on the games and it is greatly appreciated. Hopefully Nick and Q can find their inner Timmy Bowers for this game.

LOL... what is the record since jwells started his preview? 1-2? And the one victory he didn't do a preview?? Uh oh... I am a superstitious mfer!

ETA: State 71 Bama 69

[MCsMGs]

Someone explain how the hell Bama is a 2.5 point favorite? That is shocking to me.

Home team...

[MCsMGs]

My take...If we play 40 minutes instead of taking 5 minute breaks during the game, we win. The comments and observations about Holman are spot on. I had one of the coaches tell me that Holman had "been in a funk" since SC game. I think we all knew that!

[Pit Bull]

UT making SC look like a Sunday afternoon walk in the park. Don't see anybody stopping their 2 big guys, Williams and Schofield. They are bad ass!

[Political Hack]

My take...If we play 40 minutes instead of taking 5 minute breaks during the game, we win. The comments and observations about Holman are spot on. I had one of the coaches tell me that Holman had "been in a funk" since SC game. I think we all knew that!

I don't really like bashing players, but it's looked like an effort problem to me some. You're not playing hard on the offensive end if most of your shots are outside the 3-point line.

[MCsMGs]

I don't really like bashing players, but it's looked like an effort problem to me some. You're not playing hard on the offensive end if most of your shots are outside the 3-point line.

I'm with you on bashing players, coaches, ADs, programs etc. Acknowledging that a player is in a slump doesn't constitute "bashing" IMO...it's part of the game.

More often than not, it's the tone of the comments that cross the line into counterproductive "bashing".

[Pit Bull]

Thinking back, Miss.State, BAMA, and UT had basketball HC openings at about the same time. There was a nationwide scramble for coaches from those 3 schools. Now, 4 years later.....how would you rank them in success? Most likely you would have to take #1 Rick Barnes, #2 Avery Johnson, and #3 Ben Howland. Now, I think Johnson and Howland are very close in ability with Barnes clearly the best of the 3. Should be interesting tonight to see if Ben can put a little space between himself and Avery Johnson.

[parabrave]

Well paraphasing the radio crew. Need Holman to play defense and need good Lamar tonight.

[Pit Bull]

Well paraphasing the radio crew. Need Holman to play defense and need good Lamar tonight.

Hopefully, students will stay away tonight. Don't need 16,000 crazies lifting the roof off Coleman Coliseum.

[DeviousDawg]

State #26 in NET and #26 in RPI
Bama #43 in NET and #36 in RPI

Chance for a Group 1 win.

[DeviousDawg]

Great drive and finish by Holman there

[Saltydog]

Nt

[Political Hack]

I'm with you on bashing players, coaches, ADs, programs etc. Acknowledging that a player is in a slump doesn't constitute "bashing" IMO...it's part of the game.

More often than not, it's the tone of the comments that cross the line into counterproductive "bashing".

Yep.

Holman is actually getting inside offensively. That's a good sign early.

[Percho]

Already cheated us out of a point

[Political Hack]

Bama is tough.

[PMDawg]

Bama doesn?t score that much. I think it will be a close game but Holman has to defend. If he doesn?t defend and continues to play like he has the past six games we are in trouble. Mack and Norris will light us up if Holman doesn?t close out and run them off the 3 point line. That imo is the key. Does Holman show up defensively or not and if he doesn?t does Howland have the balls to get him out of there quickly. If Holman shows up or Howland takes his ass out if he doesn?t and sits him on the bench for extensive minutes, we will be fine. If Holman doesn?t show up and he plays 20+ minutes, we will lose. Holman actually showed up defensively down the stretch against Auburn and did just enough to not hurt us. Holman?s effort defensively is the key to us getting where we want to go.

Like I said....

I'm just glad we got a little spurt at the end to make it seem closer than it really was.

[Political Hack]

I hope we win but I think their bigs are too athletic and too long for us. They're tougher than us and better athletes down low. That's going to be difficult to match up with. I think we can neutralize one another outside, but they're going to abuse us down low. If we can get them in foul trouble and Ado and the frosh play well, we can pull it out. However I think Bama is going to give us more than we can handle.

I knew they were gonna abuse us in the paint, but I had no clue it would be as bad as it was. We got straight bludgeoned down low.

We've got to fix our post game now if we're gonna compete. With Nick healthy we have the G's. Just need to find a way to dominate tha paint.

[MarketingBully]

Like I said....

I'm just glad we got a little spurt at the end to make it seem closer than it really was.

Well when you allow a team 74 points from dunks and free throws any team can score like that. If we had zoned them, they score in the 50s.