Joe at MSU vs Dan at MSU vs Joe at PSU

[Todd4State]

Interesting stats that I ran through my calculator. I think it shows that Joe tried to adapt to our personnel better than some believe. And I think it also shows that Nick was probably somewhat of a ballhog.

Penn State 16- Run/pass ratio of 58/42 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 31%

Penn State 17- Run/pass ratio of 50.4/49.6 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 38%

MSU 17- Run/pass ratio of 64/36 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 37%

MSU 18- Run/pass ratio of 61/39 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 49%


So, in conclusion we had a similar ratio of run/pass plays as we did under Dan during his last season. Really the major difference that sticks out to me is the QB runs. To further illustrate Nick had 162 rushing attempts in 17 and Key had 75 for a total of 233 on the year. In 2018 Nick had 221 rushing attempts and as a team we had 253. And yes, Nick missed most of the Egg Bowl and the Gator Bowl but he also missed the Stephen F Austin game this year so everything is pretty close to being relatively equal as far the schedule and playing time goes. So Joe this year ran the QB more than he ever has. But I don't believe that was by design and I don't think that's what he wants to do. With Nick running more it makes us more predictable as to who the ball carrier is going to be. An example that sticks out in my mind was the Egg Bowl on our first TD. The Ole Miss defender completely sold out and attacked Nick and paid zero attention to Kylin. It worked out because Nick made the right read and handed off in that instance but I have to believe that defensive players saw on film that Nick was keeping the ball more often than not and sold out to tackle him. An example of that same instance and it not working was Iowa where Nick kept it when he probably should have handed it off on the first down play.



Another interesting thing to me was how many total plays we ran because of the complaints about how long it took our offense to get plays off. Here are the results.


PSU 16- 931


PSU 17- 909


MSU 17- 987


MSU 18- 837


So, as you see there is quite a difference between PSU in 16-17 and MSU this year. A 72 play difference on the low end between PSU 17 and MSU 18. So, while we probably won't run as many plays as Dan did with his hurry up sometimes offense we still ran significantly fewer plays. I again think that this is because Nick didn't process the info quickly enough or was able to adjust when a defense adjusted. Point is Joe wants to run his offense a lot quicker than what we saw this year. If our QB next year can run the offense better we will take off. That's the key to the entire thing.

[Tbonewannabe]

Interesting stats that I ran through my calculator. I think it shows that Joe tried to adapt to our personnel better than some believe. And I think it also shows that Nick was probably somewhat of a ballhog.

Penn State 16- Run/pass ratio of 58/42 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 31%

Penn State 17- Run/pass ratio of 50.4/49.6 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 38%

MSU 17- Run/pass ratio of 64/36 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 37%

MSU 18- Run/pass ratio of 61/39 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 49%


So, in conclusion we had a similar ratio of run/pass plays as we did under Dan during his last season. Really the major difference that sticks out to me is the QB runs. To further illustrate Nick had 162 rushing attempts in 17 and Key had 75 for a total of 233 on the year. In 2018 Nick had 221 rushing attempts and as a team we had 253. And yes, Nick missed most of the Egg Bowl and the Gator Bowl but he also missed the Stephen F Austin game this year so everything is pretty close to being relatively equal as far the schedule and playing time goes. So Joe this year ran the QB more than he ever has. But I don't believe that was by design and I don't think that's what he wants to do. With Nick running more it makes us more predictable as to who the ball carrier is going to be. An example that sticks out in my mind was the Egg Bowl on our first TD. The Ole Miss defender completely sold out and attacked Nick and paid zero attention to Kylin. It worked out because Nick made the right read and handed off in that instance but I have to believe that defensive players saw on film that Nick was keeping the ball more often than not and sold out to tackle him. An example of that same instance and it not working was Iowa where Nick kept it when he probably should have handed it off on the first down play.



Another interesting thing to me was how many total plays we ran because of the complaints about how long it took our offense to get plays off. Here are the results.


PSU 16- 931


PSU 17- 909


MSU 17- 987


MSU 18- 837


So, as you see there is quite a difference between PSU in 16-17 and MSU this year. A 72 play difference on the low end between PSU 17 and MSU 18. So, while we probably won't run as many plays as Dan did with his hurry up sometimes offense we still ran significantly fewer plays. I again think that this is because Nick didn't process the info quickly enough or was able to adjust when a defense adjusted. Point is Joe wants to run his offense a lot quicker than what we saw this year. If our QB next year can run the offense better we will take off. That's the key to the entire thing.

Could you do the same for MSU 2016? I am curious because it seemed we tried to run more of what Dak ran in 2015 but it wasn't as successful. It seems like we went to more of a Relf style offense in 2017 and Fitz excelled at it. It just seems like Fitz isn't great at going through the progressions that either Moorhead or Mullen in 2016 required.

[BrunswickDawg]

I can see the ball hog being a side effect of not being comfortable in the offense. If you are not comfortable, you rely on yourself and call your own number and revert to what you know best.

The flip side of that is Joe told us from the beginning he wants the ball in the hands of his best play maker as much as possible. Arguably, Fitz is our best play maker running the ball, therefore it makes sense that he would run it, run it some more, then run again. Fitz ran the ball roughly the same number of times as Barkley did for Joe in '17. Barkley was PSU's best playmaker - and Joe got him the ball. You can disagree with that choice - but, it was something that had been proven over the course of 3 seasons - our offense revolved around Fitz running the ball and that's pretty much it.

[BrunswickDawg]

deleted

[BrunswickDawg]

Could you do the same for MSU 2016? I am curious because it seemed we tried to run more of what Dak ran in 2015 but it wasn't as successful. It seems like we went to more of a Relf style offense in 2017 and Fitz excelled at it. It just seems like Fitz isn't great at going through the progressions that either Moorhead or Mullen in 2016 required.

MSU '16 56/44 run/pass ratio - 36.6% QB runs - 943 plays

[Todd4State]

I can see the ball hog being a side effect of not being comfortable in the offense. If you are not comfortable, you rely on yourself and call your own number and revert to what you know best.

The flip side of that is Joe told us from the beginning he wants the ball in the hands of his best play maker as much as possible. Arguably, Fitz is our best play maker running the ball, therefore it makes sense that he would run it, run it some more, then run again. Fitz ran the ball roughly the same number of times as Barkley did for Joe in '17. Barkley was PSU's best playmaker - and Joe got him the ball. You can disagree with that choice - but, it was something that had been proven over the course of 3 seasons - our offense revolved around Fitz running the ball and that's pretty much it.

Which if true shows Joe's ability to adapt to our players.

My guess is based on his actions that I am aware of- getting suspended for a game, calling out our fans on Twitter after we beat Auburn, and improving after Joe threatened to bench him after the LSU game and seeing open receivers not even looked at it's probably a combination of Nick being raw, not understanding how to read defenses, and not taking initiative to improve enough on his own off the field, and trying to do too much. I do think that Nick felt bad that we didn't have the season that we potentially "could have had" and that also may have contributed to him doing too much.


I think a lot of the same things would have happened if Dan was still here to be honest with you. My guess is the actual biggest difference is as odd as this is to believe- we probably would have had about 10-15% fewer QB runs. And likely a similar run/pass ratio and more plays run. Which is also probably why the PPG difference is only a TD less when things come out in the wash. Also our offense was gradually declining with Dan statistically as well. I wouldn't be surprised if we would have seen about a 2-5 point decline anyway. Our recruiting issues on the OL especially at OT and WR really reared their ugly heads this year.

[Cooterpoot]

Nothing like giving away 10+ plays a game for an offensive guru. Everybody is trying to get more plays, while we prefer fewer? And with a defense that should've given us a lot of extra possessions at that. Not a good thing at all.

[Todd4State]

Nothing like giving away 10+ plays a game for an offensive guru. Everybody is trying to get more plays, while we prefer fewer? And with a defense that should've given us a lot of extra possessions at that. Not a good thing at all.

The stats clearly show that Joe wants to run more plays.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

With regard to the high % of QB runs this year:

I heard second hand (so take it for what its worth) from someone that was on the team in 2017 that a lot of the "read options" Mullen called for Fitz were actually predetermined as to whether Fitz would hand it off or fake the hand off to the RB. If that's true, it could explain the 49% number this year, as well as stuff like the series of plays at the Iowa goal line where Fitz ran the ball 3 straight times.

[Todd4State]

With regard to the high % of QB runs this year:

I heard second hand (so take it for what its worth) from someone that was on the team in 2017 that a lot of the "read options" Mullen called for Fitz were actually predetermined as to whether Fitz would hand it off or fake the hand off to the RB. If that's true, it could explain the 49% number this year, as well as stuff like the series of plays at the Iowa goal line where Fitz ran the ball 3 straight times.

Very believable.

[cheewgumm]

I think it could be that James Franklin (head coach) told Joe Moorhead (OC) to get the ball to their best player (Sequan).

I'm sorry, I think it's laughable that he'd allow a QB to totally wreck his system and potentially get him fired and not do anything about it. what does he do if the next QB wont "do right"? Wait for the next one?

Just doesn't make sense to me.

[Dawgfan77]

You guys do realize that joe didn?t trust fitz to make the read so we waited til we made the read and see if we were in the right call. Joe didn?t have to worry bout that at PSU

[Todd4State]

I think it could be that James Franklin (head coach) told Joe Moorhead (OC) to get the ball to their best player (Sequan).

I'm sorry, I think it's laughable that he'd allow a QB to totally wreck his system and potentially get him fired and not do anything about it. what does he do if the next QB wont "do right"? Wait for the next one?

Just doesn't make sense to me.
I think it's laughable that you think that Joe would be in trouble after year one after he wins 8 games, wins the Egg Bowl, scores a top 25 win and goes to a NYD bowl game with a QB that won't do right.

And if I remember correctly the run/pas ratios were similar to Penn State at Fordham so it obviously wasn't Franklin making Joe do right. Which would take a lot of gall since Joe basically saved Franklin's job.

[Todd4State]

You guys do realize that joe didn?t trust fitz to make the read so we waited til we made the read and see if we were in the right call. Joe didn?t have to worry bout that at PSU

Yep. The stats bear that out. Also watching the Stephen F Austin film we ran our plays a lot more quickly in game one with Key. We'll keep an eye on this next season for sure.

[cheewgumm]

I never said he?d be in trouble after one year.

If he watches his QB do things that he as a head coach doesn?t want done and aren?t working, then he?s putting his job in a 20 yr old QBs hands and not steering the ahip himself.

That will lead to him getting fired. (This is not me saying he should or will get fired after one year.)

Lets hope Shrader will ?do right?.

[Todd4State]

I never said he?d be in trouble after one year.

If he watches his QB do things that he as a head coach doesn?t want done and aren?t working, then he?s putting his job in a 20 yr old QBs hands and not steering the ahip himself.

That will lead to him getting fired. (This is not me saying he should or will get fired after one year.)

Lets hope Shrader will ?do right?.

I'm not so sure it will be Shrader next year. I think he will have a chance but I also think that Key and Mayden will get chances as well. And perhaps any grad transfer we bring in.

[gravedigger]

Interesting stats that I ran through my calculator. I think it shows that Joe tried to adapt to our personnel better than some believe. And I think it also shows that Nick was probably somewhat of a ballhog.

Penn State 16- Run/pass ratio of 58/42 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 31%

Penn State 17- Run/pass ratio of 50.4/49.6 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 38%

MSU 17- Run/pass ratio of 64/36 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 37%

MSU 18- Run/pass ratio of 61/39 and the percentage of those running plays being QB runs- 49%


So, in conclusion we had a similar ratio of run/pass plays as we did under Dan during his last season. Really the major difference that sticks out to me is the QB runs. To further illustrate Nick had 162 rushing attempts in 17 and Key had 75 for a total of 233 on the year. In 2018 Nick had 221 rushing attempts and as a team we had 253. And yes, Nick missed most of the Egg Bowl and the Gator Bowl but he also missed the Stephen F Austin game this year so everything is pretty close to being relatively equal as far the schedule and playing time goes. So Joe this year ran the QB more than he ever has. But I don't believe that was by design and I don't think that's what he wants to do. With Nick running more it makes us more predictable as to who the ball carrier is going to be. An example that sticks out in my mind was the Egg Bowl on our first TD. The Ole Miss defender completely sold out and attacked Nick and paid zero attention to Kylin. It worked out because Nick made the right read and handed off in that instance but I have to believe that defensive players saw on film that Nick was keeping the ball more often than not and sold out to tackle him. An example of that same instance and it not working was Iowa where Nick kept it when he probably should have handed it off on the first down play.



Another interesting thing to me was how many total plays we ran because of the complaints about how long it took our offense to get plays off. Here are the results.


PSU 16- 931


PSU 17- 909


MSU 17- 987


MSU 18- 837


So, as you see there is quite a difference between PSU in 16-17 and MSU this year. A 72 play difference on the low end between PSU 17 and MSU 18. So, while we probably won't run as many plays as Dan did with his hurry up sometimes offense we still ran significantly fewer plays. I again think that this is because Nick didn't process the info quickly enough or was able to adjust when a defense adjusted. Point is Joe wants to run his offense a lot quicker than what we saw this year. If our QB next year can run the offense better we will take off. That's the key to the entire thing.

Solid post Todd. This illustrates the problem of transferring coaching philosophy. I think Joe's offense, no matter the play, has the qb making many more decisions than Mullen's did. Mullen made it look like a read option when it actually wasnt and Fitz ran the play. With Joe, Fitz was trying to do something he just wasnt used to doing presnap or post snap. Numbers of offensive plays doesnt impress me. Efficiency and the number of 15 plus yard plays does. 3rd down conversion percentage does.

Bottom line, when Nick was running the offense, he was guessing the read. When we were trying to get the play in, he was relying COMPLETELY on the coaches to call the presnap read.I dont think he ever read a thing post snap.

When we are more successful on offense this coming year our fans are going to think it's all because players are playing better or they are more talented than their predecessor. I think it will be that the QB will be making reads better and getting plays off in a more timely fashion. I dont know that we'll be better in the pass catching category, but we will be better in the decision to pass category. Our running backs will get the ball more often.

And most of all, Coach34 will pop up about 3 times to tell us all how he predicted it.

[cheewgumm]

The pass you guys give to Moorhead is amazing.

Also do you guys have inside info about what was actually happening - like Fitz was making wrong read?

How do you know this?

[Todd4State]

The pass you guys give to Moorhead is amazing.

Also do you guys have inside info about what was actually happening - like Fitz was making wrong read?

How do you know this?

When Joe yells at Nick to "hand the ball off" against LSU on the goal line or Fotz keeps the ball and two guys come through unblocked and tackle him on a read option play it's probably because the wrong read was made.

And we all so the wide open receivers the entire year.