And that?s why you don?t go for it on 4th and one on your 35

[Sparrows2]

The payoff for the risk is too low
You win the gamble you still have to drive 65 yards for a payoff
Lots of things can happen to make the payoff not worth the risk

You risk giving your opponent at least a near automatic 3 at least in return for the right to drive 65 yards
Stupid

[BeardoMSU]

Huh?

They converted by 4 yards....They're 2/2 on 4th tonight. Them going 3 and out after converting has nothing to do with the 4th down call.

[msstate7]

Yeah, joe knows better than Saban**

[Sparrows2]

You mean you can’t see why it was stupid.
Damn did IQ’s drop in all of a sudden.
Yeah boy, Saban got a first down and didn’t give Clemson points!!!
Tell him what he wins Johnny!
The right to drive 65 yards where he might punt, throw an interception or any other numerous things.


And how did it work out? It’s not about getting the first down it’s about what reward did you get for the risk

[BeardoMSU]

Damn did IQ’s drop in all of a sudden.


Don't pull a Ripley on me, you bird.**


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPa5oVG-nII

[Homedawg]

The payoff for the risk is too low
You win the gamble you still have to drive 65 yards for a payoff
Lots of things can happen to make the payoff not worth the risk

You risk giving your opponent at least a near automatic 3 at least in return for the right to drive 65 yards
Stupid

What in the hell??

[Homedawg]

You mean you can’t see why it was stupid.
Damn did IQ’s drop in all of a sudden.
Yeah boy, Saban got a first down and didn’t give Clemson points!!!
Tell him what he wins Johnny!
The right to drive 65 yards where he might punt, throw an interception or any other numerous things.


And how did it work out? It’s not about getting the first down it’s about what reward did you get for the risk

In a game w few stops it was most certainly the right call. The fact they threw an int later has nothing to do with it. Your point is wow.

[HoopsDawg]

The payoff for the risk is too low
You win the gamble you still have to drive 65 yards for a payoff
Lots of things can happen to make the payoff not worth the risk

You risk giving your opponent at least a near automatic 3 at least in return for the right to drive 65 yards
Stupid

Joe, you are a moron.

[Sparrows2]

Did you really just type that the fact he later threw an interception has nothing to do with it?
Seriously you can’t fix...ah shit...skip it.....carryon with your life
Higher math, logic and game theory isn’t for everyone
Word of advise avoid casinos and the stock market

[BeardoMSU]

Did you really just type that the fact he later threw an interception has nothing to do with it?
Seriously you can’t fix...ah shit...skip it.....carryon with your life
Higher math, logic and game theory isn’t for everyone
Word of advise avoid casinos and the stock market

Hey...since you're likely to do and/or say something stupid in the future, you may want to consider killing y....ah shit....skip it...carry on with your life.***

[Lord McBuckethead]

I see his point. Its not like this is for a shot at points versus 10 yards of field position. You gain the yard to gain, now you have 65 yards to go and will still likely punt.

[Quaoarsking]

Actually, mathematical analysis supports going for it on 4th and 1 from any location on the field in almost any circumstance.

[Maroons]

Actually, mathematical analysis supports going for it on 4th and 1 from any location on the field in almost any circumstance.

This.

Guarantee Belichick would have done the same thing.

[Commercecomet24]

This.

Guarantee Belichick would have done the same thing.

Being a Pats fan for years, I've watched BB go for it time and time again.

[Sparrows2]

No Belichick is no going to do it that early in the game and evetif he did it’s an emotional mistake
Let me dumb it down
It’s not smart to pay $700 for 70% if the lottery tickets when the lottery pays out $900. You get that right?
If it’s the last time you will ever play the lottery and someone will kill you if you don’t do it then yeah it makes sense.
Similarly no rational person who is not emotionally engaged goes for it on 4th and one in the first half on their on side of the field.
It’s just stupid because the odds say you will end up punting anyway

[Commercecomet24]

No Belichick is no going to do it that early in the game and evetif he did it’s an emotional mistake
Let me dumb it down
It’s not smart to pay $700 for 70% if the lottery tickets when the lottery pays out $900. You get that right?
If it’s the last time you will ever play the lottery and someone will kill you if you don’t do it then yeah it makes sense.
Similarly no rational person who is not emotionally engaged goes for it on 4th and one in the first half on their on side of the field.
It’s just stupid because the odds say you will end up punting anyway

Actually if you take emotion completely out of the decision making and base it solely on mathematical probabilities, then you should go for it on 4th down every single time.

[Sparrows2]

You are wrong but at least it’s the right argument
Let’s give it a 70% chance that Bama will make it.
Let’s give the chance that clemson will at least make a field goal if you fail on 4th down at 80%
So there is a 24% chance that Bama going for it will give Clemson points.
What does Bama get for that risk? A 70% chance to drive 65 yards. In order for the chance to pay off Bama would have to know they could score against Clemson defense 34% of the time.
Or 1 out of every 3 drives of 65 yards.
Evenly matched teams don’t score every 3 drives. Unless someone is being out coached. So which is it? Saban thought he could outcoach Dabo or he knew he was being outcoached and was desperate?

[tcdog70]

I see his point. Its not like this is for a shot at points versus 10 yards of field position. You gain the yard to gain, now you have 65 yards to go and will still likely punt.

Dude-Nick went for it to keep Clemson from having the Ball. They can't score if you have the ball. They fact Nick trusted his offense to gain 6 inches, means Nick has a Brain and is trying to win--wish JOMO had enough balls to go for it on 4th and 1--the % for the offense to gain a yard is far greater that the defense stopping you. And if you happen to have the best defense in the Nation--then go for it and give yourself a chance to win.