Simmons and the Draft?

[BrunswickDawg]

No way we could get this lucky and keep Simmons another year....

https://twitter.com/tbhorka/status/1074007636994088961?s=21

[msstate7]

No chance

[BrunswickDawg]

No chance

But, if he did, it would be a game changer for us on D next year.

[Todd4State]

But, if he did, it would be a game changer for us on D next year.

No question.

I'm not expecting him to come back but I will be very happy if he does.

[msstate7]

But, if he did, it would be a game changer for us on D next year.

Absolutely it would. I'd move 6-8 wins next season to 7-9. I think Simmons is worth another win

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Don't get excited.

[msbulldog]

I'd love it, but Jeff needs to get paid.

[msbulldog]

Don't need a DK Metcalf deal.

[Walkerhill]

It does not seem likely. But this defensive tackle is really deep. What is the difference over 5 years between being a 2020 top 5 pick and a 2019 mid first rounder?

Seems like he should probably go pro either way, start working on that second pro contract.

[Todd4State]

Don't need a DK Metcalf deal.

What do you mean?

[msbulldog]

What do you mean?

Injured going into the draft, going to cost Metcalf.

[HoopsDawg]

Yep, it's one of the deepest d-line drafts of all time. He is a True Junior so I could see it. Clemson had a couple of guys come back. I would advise Simmons to enter the draft if he is guaranteed to be a 1st rounder. I'm still in disbelief that Chris Jones fell to the 2nd round. Huge mistake by a lot of GM's.

[Todd4State]

Injured going into the draft, going to cost Metcalf.

I was confused because DK was a junior this year. Got ya though.

Although in his case we'll see how much it hurts him. He still may go where he is projected.

[msbulldog]

I was confused because DK was a junior this year. Got ya though.

Although in his case we'll see how much it hurts him. He still may go where he is projected.

Todd, he is better than AJ, but GM's are going to look long and hard at a neck injury that ended his season.

[Todd4State]

Todd, he is better than AJ, but GM's are going to look long and hard at a neck injury that ended his season.

No question.

At the same time if you are Simmons I think GM's are going to take a look at his past in high school- fair or not- and then there is the fact that there are a ton of DL prospects this year that don't have that issue. So, if he did by 35% chance come back and get injured I would imagine he would probably be taken about in the same spot as he might be projected to this year. Coming back with a presumably thinner DL class may make some financial sense. It all depends on how the NFL views his past.

[Quaoarsking]

If he returns and has an even bigger season next year, he could be a candidate for the #1 pick in the 2020 draft, if that's something that appeals to him.

[dawgday166]

If he returns and has an even bigger season next year, he could be a candidate for the #1 pick in the 2020 draft, if that's something that appeals to him.

He's the best Dlineman in this draft. But there are a lot of others that are close and will probably be drafted higher for various reasons.

[RougeDawg]

He's the best Dlineman in this draft. But there are a lot of others that are close and will probably be drafted for various reasons.

If he played for Bama or Clemson he?d be #1 pick. But in reality I?d take our DL over Clemson any day. Been saying this since Clemson looked pedestrian in College Station opening weekend.

Something seems odd about this entire deal.

[Dawgfan77]

I think he should come back take out an insurance policy and play his way to the number one or two pick next year. In some ways I agree he should go if he is a first rd grade (which he will) but a productive 19 season sets him up for a top 5 pick next year plus four years removed from the incident. Their is a shit ton of difference in $& for a top 5 pick and Mid first rd pick

[DancingRabbit]

I just can't see him not going in the first round. He's been a model student and model citizen his entire career at State.

He's maybe the best DL ever at State. I haven't looked at but one mock draft but I suspect most of them have him going first round.

As long as he's pretty sure to go 1st round he should go. If we were poised to compete for a championship next year, I could see him maybe wanting to be a part of that. But what is he going to show scouts next year that he didn't show them this year?

[Ezsoil]

if I'm his agent, I tell him to wait until after the bowl game so that the focus will be on the team..he is clearly the leader on this team and in his career, he has always put the team first.... I think it's a class move and the type of thing he needs to do to offset the grief he is going to take for what happened when he was a senior.

[msstate7]

The only way I think we get him back is if someone is advising him to put a little more time between him and the HS incident. Maybe the Kareem hunt deal makes him or his advisors scared to come out this year. I don't see it though.

[Ezsoil]

The only way I think we get him back is if someone is advising him to put a little more time between him and the HS incident. Maybe the Kareem hunt deal makes him or his advisors scared to come out this year. I don't see it though.

Yeah I hate it for him....I really hope that isn't the reason but it could be....

[Pit Bull]

1st or 2nd round.....he gone. Later, then maybe think it through a bit more.

[dawgday166]

If he played for Bama or Clemson he?d be #1 pick. But in reality I?d take our DL over Clemson any day. Been saying this since Clemson looked pedestrian in College Station opening weekend.

Something seems odd about this entire deal.

Our Dline is better than any other in the country.

[Walkerhill]

1st or 2nd round.....he gone. Later, then maybe think it through a bit more.

There is no way fells into the 3rd or lower. He is projected as a 1st round pick and potentially top 10 pick and that is before the scouts get a close up look at his agility in workouts and the combine.

[TUSK]

Our Dline is better than any other in the country.

That's 2 hooks in this thread...
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b3/78/2a/b3782a45ea5c767a319a7ee3201ba43f.jpg

[Gutter Cobreh]

if I'm his agent, I tell him to wait until after the bowl game so that the focus will be on the team..he is clearly the leader on this team and in his career, he has always put the team first.... I think it's a class move and the type of thing he needs to do to offset the grief he is going to take for what happened when he was a senior.

In my opinion, Ezsoil has the correct answer. Simmons is working off the "Do the opposite of what Dan Mullen did every bowl season"; which is not to take the focus away from the team and make it all about yourself.

[JoseBrown]

Not saying he comes back, but don't forget he ELECTED not to have his senior night this year. He was given the choice.

[dawgs]

It does not seem likely. But this defensive tackle is really deep. What is the difference over 5 years between being a 2020 top 5 pick and a 2019 mid first rounder?

Seems like he should probably go pro either way, start working on that second pro contract.

The first contract ain't the one, it's getting to free agency a year earlier. No reason Simmons can't hit the NFL like cox and jones did, and that extra year of free agency would more than make up for whatever the difference in pick money for sticking around an extra year. Plus he'd be risking dropping for any of number of reaslistic scenarios.

As for this being a deep DT class, it is, but Simmons is at or near the top of the heap according to everything I've seen, so no reason for him to worry about his draft stock.

[Matty Dispatch]

The smart, logical decision is to be patient and wait for your draft grade before your jump to a conclusion. So that's what Jeffrey is doing. He isn't making any assumptions about his draft stock and announcing it to the team and coaching staff. But as soon as that draft grade comes back as a top 50 pick he gone.

[dawgs]

If he returns and has an even bigger season next year, he could be a candidate for the #1 pick in the 2020 draft, if that's something that appeals to him.

Tua is gonna be the #1 pick in 2020. Or another QB. Super deep QB class and we are in a lull this year with a weak QB class and only a few teams really looking for a QB (most everyone either has their guy or a young guy that they have hitched their wagon to for now and aren't looking to bring him another high pick to create problems). Next year should be different.

[dawgs]

The only way I think we get him back is if someone is advising him to put a little more time between him and the HS incident. Maybe the Kareem hunt deal makes him or his advisors scared to come out this year. I don't see it though.

Agent, family, coaches, whoever aren't who he should listen to about the HS incident. NFL GMs will let him know if the incident is still a problem and whether 1 more year will make a difference (I don't think it would because he's been a model student athlete for 3 years, repeating that a 4th year ain't proving anything he ain't already proven).

[dawgday166]

That's 2 hooks in this thread...
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b3/78/2a/b3782a45ea5c767a319a7ee3201ba43f.jpg

I'm busy.

[TUSK]

I'm busy.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to dawgday166 again.

[TALL DAWG]

The first contract ain't the one, it's getting to free agency a year earlier. No reason Simmons can't hit the NFL like cox and jones did, and that extra year of free agency would more than make up for whatever the difference in pick money for sticking around an extra year. Plus he'd be risking dropping for any of number of reaslistic scenarios.

As for this being a deep DT class, it is, but Simmons is at or near the top of the heap according to everything I've seen, so no reason for him to worry about his draft stock.

If Simmons isn?t a top 10-20 pick in 1st round in 2019 draft, it?s a total fell by all GM?s. He?s a beast and got double teamed a ton this yr. We?ve got more great defensive players in the league presently than ever before. If GM?s don?t get the fact that MSU guys have been panning out well they need to get their head out of the sand!

[Political Hack]

Heard from multiple people that there's a significant chance he returns. He's got people very close to him encouraging him to finish school. If it's a situation where he's slotted mid to late first round and knows he'll be a lottery pick next year, it's smarter to stay one more year. The DT/DL class is crazy deep this year.

Told he doesn't know what he's going to do yet. So yeah, there's a chance...

[KOdawg1]

Heard from multiple people that there's a significant chance he returns. He's got people very close to him encouraging him to finish school. If it's a situation where he's slotted mid to late first round and knows he'll be a lottery pick next year, it's smarter to stay one more year. The DT/DL class is crazy deep this year.

Told he doesn't know what he's going to do yet. So yeah, there's a chance...

Yeah, I believe you, but I'm not going to get my hopes up. For my sake more than anything lol. Him returning would be huge next year, but I just don't see how you can turn that kind of money down.

[Political Hack]

Yeah, I believe you, but I'm not going to get my hopes up. For my sake more than anything lol. Him returning would be huge next year, but I just don't see how you can turn that kind of money down.

I agree. In the end, I think he goes and probably should, but it's fun to think about how good he'd be if he came back. It could be a Simmon's for Heisman type season.

[dawgs]

Heard from multiple people that there's a significant chance he returns. He's got people very close to him encouraging him to finish school. If it's a situation where he's slotted mid to late first round and knows he'll be a lottery pick next year, it's smarter to stay one more year. The DT/DL class is crazy deep this year.

Told he doesn't know what he's going to do yet. So yeah, there's a chance...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2018/04/27/2018-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections-what-mayfield-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/#c06905445814 (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2018/04/27/2018-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections-what-mayfield-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/amp/)

Here is the nfl rookie slots for 2018 picks. Simmons might be able to sneak into the back half of the top 10 this year and probably won't improve his stock next year even with another great season (as deep as DL is this year, there are very few skill position guys on offense projected as 1st round picks too, so the draft is gonna be defensive heavy anyway, and Simmons is projected towards the top of the DL heap). So even if he's project at say the middle to back of the 1st round, he'd have to climb into the top 10 to really change the $$$ he's gonna get in any significant way. Then you figure if he has a good head and good advisors, he'll be investing a sizable chunk of that signing bonus, so he'll be gaining interest for a year. Then figure he'll hit free agency 1 year earlier and if he pans out like cox and jones have, he'll be looking at a ~$15+M/year deal at that point (maybe $20M+ with salary cap increases), so you take around $3-5M less spread out over the life of the rookie contract, but between interest gained on investing and an extra year of free agency, he would more than make up for coming out early even if he only projects as a mid-late 1st round pick. And then combine that with no guarantee to improve his stock and a reasonable projection that he could hurt it by becoming stale to NFL scouts even if he doesn't drop off in production significantly or maybe production dips without sweat splitting the OL's attention or a strong offensive skill position draft in 2020 after teams loaded up on early DL picks in 2019 pushes him down the board, and there's really not a financial reason to come back.

Now he could just want to comeback regardless of financial reasons, and that's his decision to make, but (assuming he maintains his 1st round grade and stays healthy) anyone that thinks he'd be financially better off coming back in hopes of improving his rookie contract is wrong.

[Todd4State]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2018/04/27/2018-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections-what-mayfield-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/#c06905445814 (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2018/04/27/2018-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections-what-mayfield-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/amp/)

Here is the nfl rookie slots for 2018 picks. Simmons might be able to sneak into the back half of the top 10 this year and probably won't improve his stock next year even with another great season (as deep as DL is this year, there are very few skill position guys on offense projected as 1st round picks too, so the draft is gonna be defensive heavy anyway, and Simmons is projected towards the top of the DL heap). So even if he's project at say the middle to back of the 1st round, he'd have to climb into the top 10 to really change the $$$ he's gonna get in any significant way. Then you figure if he has a good head and good advisors, he'll be investing a sizable chunk of that signing bonus, so he'll be gaining interest for a year. Then figure he'll hit free agency 1 year earlier and if he pans out like cox and jones have, he'll be looking at a ~$15+M/year deal at that point (maybe $20M+ with salary cap increases), so you take around $3-5M less spread out over the life of the rookie contract, but between interest gained on investing and an extra year of free agency, he would more than make up for coming out early even if he only projects as a mid-late 1st round pick. And then combine that with no guarantee to improve his stock and a reasonable projection that he could hurt it by becoming stale to NFL scouts even if he doesn't drop off in production significantly or maybe production dips without sweat splitting the OL's attention or a strong offensive skill position draft in 2020 after teams loaded up on early DL picks in 2019 pushes him down the board, and there's really not a financial reason to come back.

Now he could just want to comeback regardless of financial reasons, and that's his decision to make, but (assuming he maintains his 1st round grade and stays healthy) anyone that thinks he'd be financially better off coming back in hopes of improving his rookie contract is wrong.

The problem is for him I don't think he is necessarily a lock to even go in the first round because of his incident. CBS put out a mock draft two or three days ago that didn't even have Simmons mentioned in the first round at all.

Another good year + 4.0 GPA + degree in hand + another year away from his incident not to mention fewer DL/Edge/DE prospects makes him pretty much a lock for the top 10 next year. That would be potentially an extra 10-15 million dollars not to mention a free education. And none of these guys are going to invest anything to get interest- trust me. If someone gave me 10 million dollars at age 22 I doubt I would have invested any of it either. And while Rivers isn't Sweat- he is good enough to be very productive with a Simmons by him.

[TUSK]

The problem is for him I don't think he is necessarily a lock to even go in the first round because of his incident. CBS put out a mock draft two or three days ago that didn't even have Simmons mentioned in the first round at all.

Another good year + 4.0 GPA + degree in hand + another year away from his incident not to mention fewer DL/Edge/DE prospects makes him pretty much a lock for the top 10 next year. That would be potentially an extra 10-15 million dollars not to mention a free education. And none of these guys are going to invest anything to get interest- trust me. If someone gave me 10 million dollars at age 22 I doubt I would have invested any of it either. And while Rivers isn't Sweat- he is good enough to be very productive with a Simmons by him.

I think Simmons is a 1st rounder regardless of his incident... The site I check out the most has him #5 overall and 4th DT in the Draft...

SEC Defense - 1st Round per Waltercamp (13 guys of 32).... Note: Clemson had 3...

#2 Williams, DT, UA
#3 Brown, DT, AU
#5 Simmons, DT, MSU
#8 Baker, CB, UGA
#9 White, LB, LSU
#12 Allen, DE/LB, KY
#13 Davis, DE/DT, UA
#15 Thompson, S, UA
#16 Williams, S, LSU
#21 Wilson, LB, UA
#22 Diggs, CB, UA
#23 Polite, DE/OLB, UF
#24 Sweat, DE/OLB, MSU

[Todd4State]

I think Simmons is a 1st rounder regardless of his incident... The site I check out the most has him #5 overall and 4th DT in the Draft...

SEC Defense - 1st Round per Waltercamp (13 guys of 32).... Note: Clemson had 3...

#2 Williams, DT, UA
#3 Brown, DT, AU
#5 Simmons, DT, MSU
#8 Baker, CB, UGA
#9 White, LB, LSU
#12 Allen, DE/LB, KY
#13 Davis, DE/DT, UA
#15 Thompson, S, UA
#16 Williams, S, LSU
#21 Wilson, LB, UA
#22 Diggs, CB, UA
#23 Polite, DE/OLB, UF
#24 Sweat, DE/OLB, MSU

Even that website acknowledged that pick with "if teams are fine with his off the field issues" and given what just happened with Kareem Hunt I would say that it's more than likely that they won't be. Which is sad because without those issues I agree with them that he is a no brainer top five pick.

[BrunswickDawg]

Even that website acknowledged that pick with "if teams are fine with his off the field issues" and given what just happened with Kareem Hunt I would say that it's more than likely that they won't be. Which is sad because without those issues I agree with them that he is a no brainer top five pick.

Which is also why it would be smart for him to get his degree. With the atmosphere surrounding some of these issues he stands a strong chance of the incident being held against him. That may not change next year, but having that degree for back up could be really important for him.

[Cooterpoot]

Anybody that doesn?t think Simmons is a 1st round pick is a fool. And after the combine, he?s very likely a top 10 lock. He?s not coming back. There?s no debate.

[msstate7]

Anybody that doesn?t think Simmons is a 1st round pick is a fool. And after the combine, he?s very likely a top 10 lock. He?s not coming back. There?s no debate.

I agree as long as it's a talent deal. Kareem hunt is a top 10 nfl RB with no job right now though. This is why I said he only comes back if the HS (high school, NFL gms!!!!) incident prevents him from going this season

[Cooterpoot]

Hunt has nothing to do with Simmons. Simmons is project around top 10 already. He’s not falling past top 15. He’ll be the most impressive DT at the combine. Hunt would still have a job if he hadn’t lied about it all .

[Ifyouonlyknew]

The comparison of Ray Rice, Joe Mixon, & Kareem Hunt is just lazy journalism. Anybody that's doing their homework, like NFL franchises, know this wasn't a domestic violence situation. Jeffrey made a bad choice but he was also fighting for a family member. He wasn't some angry boyfriend. That distinction is going to make a difference once he gets in the room with NFL GM's. He's likely a top 15 pick definitely won't fall past 20. He is & should go pro. He can come back the next couple of summers & finish his degree.

[msstate7]

The comparison of Ray Rice, Joe Mixon, & Kareem Hunt is just lazy journalism. Anybody that's doing their homework, like NFL franchises, know this wasn't a domestic violence situation. Jeffrey made a bad choice but he was also fighting for a family member. He wasn't some angry boyfriend. That distinction is going to make a difference once he gets in the room with NFL GM's. He's likely a top 15 pick definitely won't fall past 20. He is & should go pro. He can come back the next couple of summers & finish his degree.

You're right, but this is a lazy society too. People likely won't dig deep enough to see how different it is. Some team picking 15-32 will hit the jackpot

[smootness]

Simmons is a no-doubt 1st rounder.

[dawgs]

The problem is for him I don't think he is necessarily a lock to even go in the first round because of his incident. CBS put out a mock draft two or three days ago that didn't even have Simmons mentioned in the first round at all.

Another good year + 4.0 GPA + degree in hand + another year away from his incident not to mention fewer DL/Edge/DE prospects makes him pretty much a lock for the top 10 next year. That would be potentially an extra 10-15 million dollars not to mention a free education. And none of these guys are going to invest anything to get interest- trust me. If someone gave me 10 million dollars at age 22 I doubt I would have invested any of it either. And while Rivers isn't Sweat- he is good enough to be very productive with a Simmons by him.

I've been seeing him listed top 10 in some recent projections and 1st round in pretty much everything that's come out in the last few weeks. If the HS incident is still following him around after 3 years of exemplary conduct off the field, then I can't imagine 4 years of exemplary conduct off the field making a significant difference. Ultimately, that'll be the kinda discussions he and his representatives will have with NFL GMs over the next few months to ascertain the impact it still has and whether it's gonna magically disappear between this year and next year. Personally, I don't think it's gonna hurt him once GMs have discussions with him and fully vet the incident. If it does hurt him, I can't imagine it wouldn't similarly hurt him in the 2020 draft (plus all the other potential pratfalls between 2019 and 2020), so might as well take the financial hit ASAP and get to that FA contract a year earlier.

[BoomBoom]

Hunt has nothing to do with Simmons. Simmons is project around top 10 already. He’s not falling past top 15. He’ll be the most impressive DT at the combine. Hunt would still have a job if he hadn’t lied about it all .

That's how it should be, not how it is. Unfortunately, that incident will count against him should anything similar.ever come.up. it's like starting a game with a unsportsman like conduct, one more.and you're gone. And GMs are wary of using a 1st round pick that's one bad moment away from being gone. There's also the potential heavy PR hit that may come when fans hear this for the first time, without knowing the circumstances, on draft night. For.some teams the upside will be worth it, for.others it won't. The latter may be enough to drop him to the 2nd round.

[dawgs]

If all the draftniks who are constantly in touch with scouts and front offices aren't already dropping Simmons out of the 1st round on their projections because of the HS incident, I can't imagine that it's gonna suddenly make a huge difference. Someone might get him slightly lower than he should go, but he ain't dropping a round or 2 because of it. These folks are already aware of it and still have him in the first round. Once he goes through the interview process and works out, assuming he does well, his stock isn't gonna go drop. Obviously if he blows his combine or comes across like a shit in his interviews, he'll drop, but it'll be because he didn't handle himself well in the process, but assuming he does well, he's not dropping imo.

[Jack Lambert]

I have not read all the posts but Bama, A&M, Clemson have them come back all the time. Really the difference between number 32 and number 2 is big in money. These schools pays the insurance premiums for the student if they come back and play. If one more year in college will get you 20 million more money and the school is paying the premiums for your insurance why not unless you family is in need of money.

[smootness]

That's how it should be, not how it is. Unfortunately, that incident will count against him should anything similar.ever come.up. it's like starting a game with a unsportsman like conduct, one more.and you're gone. And GMs are wary of using a 1st round pick that's one bad moment away from being gone. There's also the potential heavy PR hit that may come when fans hear this for the first time, without knowing the circumstances, on draft night. For.some teams the upside will be worth it, for.others it won't. The latter may be enough to drop him to the 2nd round.

He will be a 1st round pick, no question.

[dawgs]

I have not read all the posts but Bama, A&M, Clemson have them come back all the time. Really the difference between number 32 and number 2 is big in money. These schools pays the insurance premiums for the student if they come back and play. If one more year in college will get you 20 million more money and the school is paying the premiums for your insurance why not unless you family is in need of money.

Only way it's a $20M difference if to go from the back of the 1st round to a top 3 pick. Or from outside the first round to a top 5-10 pick. That's a pretty big gamble considering there's essentially no offensive skill players competing for top spots in the draft this year, which won't be the case next year.

[dawgs]

And even though that $20M difference has a very slim chance of happening, assuming it did play out that way, you gotta also figure that if Simmons hits free agency a year earlier, he makes up that $20M up in that 1 extra FA season after the rookie deal if he performs like cox and jones have in the NFL. So hypothetically speaking, he gambles he can jump into the very top of the draft between 2019 and 2020 while not getting paid, or he goes ahead and starts getting paid (even if it's back of the 1st round or 2nd round money) and gambles he starts wrecking shit so he signs his $100M deal a year sooner on the back end. Gamble either way, but if he went in 2019, he'd at least have some guaranteed $$, whereas there's plenty of realistic scenarios where his draft stock drops in 2020, thus hurting his rookie deal AND pushes his free agency back a season.

[Jack Lambert]

Only way it's a $20M difference if to go from the back of the 1st round to a top 3 pick. Or from outside the first round to a top 5-10 pick. That's a pretty big gamble considering there's essentially no offensive skill players competing for top spots in the draft this year, which won't be the case next year.

I was just making an example. I don't know how the money works.

[Tbonewannabe]

You're right, but this is a lazy society too. People likely won't dig deep enough to see how different it is. Some team picking 15-32 will hit the jackpot

I understand Kareem Hunt lied but the actual fight was very tame. Chick slapped him and called him the N word. He pushed a guy who fell into her. He then barely kicked her to the point that I doubt she was even bruised. Chick got a lot less than she deserved but Hunt paid a huge price.

[Tbonewannabe]

And even though that $20M difference has a very slim chance of happening, assuming it did play out that way, you gotta also figure that if Simmons hits free agency a year earlier, he makes up that $20M up in that 1 extra FA season after the rookie deal if he performs like cox and jones have in the NFL. So hypothetically speaking, he gambles he can jump into the very top of the draft between 2019 and 2020 while not getting paid, or he goes ahead and starts getting paid (even if it's back of the 1st round or 2nd round money) and gambles he starts wrecking shit so he signs his $100M deal a year sooner on the back end. Gamble either way, but if he went in 2019, he'd at least have some guaranteed $$, whereas there's plenty of realistic scenarios where his draft stock drops in 2020, thus hurting his rookie deal AND pushes his free agency back a season.

Oddly enough, Jones was a 2nd round pick but it puts him 1 year closer to his FA deal because only 1st rounders get 5th year options.

[Tbonewannabe]

That's how it should be, not how it is. Unfortunately, that incident will count against him should anything similar.ever come.up. it's like starting a game with a unsportsman like conduct, one more.and you're gone. And GMs are wary of using a 1st round pick that's one bad moment away from being gone. There's also the potential heavy PR hit that may come when fans hear this for the first time, without knowing the circumstances, on draft night. For.some teams the upside will be worth it, for.others it won't. The latter may be enough to drop him to the 2nd round.

Belichek doesn't care what fans think. If Simmons is there then the Patriots will draft him because he is a top 5 talent.

[msstate7]

Belichek doesn't care what fans think. If Simmons is there then the Patriots will draft him because he is a top 5 talent.

Patriots are exactly the type of team that will luck into Simmons

[dawgs]

Oddly enough, Jones was a 2nd round pick but it puts him 1 year closer to his FA deal because only 1st rounders get 5th year options.

Yep. The 5th year options are still big paydays too, but don't offer the long term certainty of a FA deal. How certain that FA deal is depends on negotiations of course, but cox got $63M guaranteed with his deal.

[Scared_Hitless]

I am almost assured that if Simmons goes pro and teams pass due to the issue in HS, then teams like the Seahawks, Patriots, or Dallas are more than willing to take the PR hit for a Top 5 talent. Which he is

[Political Hack]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2018/04/27/2018-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections-what-mayfield-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/#c06905445814 (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2018/04/27/2018-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections-what-mayfield-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/amp/)

Here is the nfl rookie slots for 2018 picks. Simmons might be able to sneak into the back half of the top 10 this year and probably won't improve his stock next year even with another great season (as deep as DL is this year, there are very few skill position guys on offense projected as 1st round picks too, so the draft is gonna be defensive heavy anyway, and Simmons is projected towards the top of the DL heap). So even if he's project at say the middle to back of the 1st round, he'd have to climb into the top 10 to really change the $$$ he's gonna get in any significant way. Then you figure if he has a good head and good advisors, he'll be investing a sizable chunk of that signing bonus, so he'll be gaining interest for a year. Then figure he'll hit free agency 1 year earlier and if he pans out like cox and jones have, he'll be looking at a ~$15+M/year deal at that point (maybe $20M+ with salary cap increases), so you take around $3-5M less spread out over the life of the rookie contract, but between interest gained on investing and an extra year of free agency, he would more than make up for coming out early even if he only projects as a mid-late 1st round pick. And then combine that with no guarantee to improve his stock and a reasonable projection that he could hurt it by becoming stale to NFL scouts even if he doesn't drop off in production significantly or maybe production dips without sweat splitting the OL's attention or a strong offensive skill position draft in 2020 after teams loaded up on early DL picks in 2019 pushes him down the board, and there's really not a financial reason to come back.

Now he could just want to comeback regardless of financial reasons, and that's his decision to make, but (assuming he maintains his 1st round grade and stays healthy) anyone that thinks he'd be financially better off coming back in hopes of improving his rookie contract is wrong.

Getting out of the rookie contract faster is a strong incentive, but most agents will tell you that you can't count on that. Your goal is 100% consumed with your first contract. It's the only thing that's close to "guaranteed." Anything after that is gravy. On the flip side, insurance policy would help mitigate the loss of income if he were to have a setback, so there's financial risks in staying there too.

However, if he's projected 20th or later due to the depth of DT spot this year, he could come back and make a lot more money out the gate next year, including big endorsement deals.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Go Jeffrey!! Don't look back! You've given us 3 amazing seasons. Go be great & take care of your family.

[msstate7]

Go Jeffrey!! Don't look back! You've given us 3 amazing seasons. Go be great & take care of your family.

He will. It'd be foolish to not

[msbulldog]

If all the draftniks who are constantly in touch with scouts and front offices aren't already dropping Simmons out of the 1st round on their projections because of the HS incident, I can't imagine that it's gonna suddenly make a huge difference. Someone might get him slightly lower than he should go, but he ain't dropping a round or 2 because of it. These folks are already aware of it and still have him in the first round. Once he goes through the interview process and works out, assuming he does well, his stock isn't gonna go drop. Obviously if he blows his combine or comes across like a shit in his interviews, he'll drop, but it'll be because he didn't handle himself well in the process, but assuming he does well, he's not dropping imo.

Look, if Tunsil can do a gas mask bong on world wide TV on draft night and not drop any further than what he did, Jeffery ain't got nothing to worry about.