Basketball Over/Under 16.5 Wins?

[Political Hack]

How many think we'll win more than 16.5 games this season?

We've got a pretty easy OOC schedule, but some of those no name teams are actually pretty good programs.

[Behrdawg]

How many think we'll win more than 16.5 games this season?

We've got a pretty easy OOC schedule, but some of those no name teams are actually pretty good programs.

Im going with under.

[WeWillScrewItUp]

I'm not a basketball guy by any means but I'm going over.

[Dawg61]

I'll say over barely with 17 wins. Depth will help tremendously.

[Red Sox Dawg]

Over

[Coach34]

that's a good number- I'll go over. I think 17 is the number this year- maybe an 18th

[Homedawg]

Under

[DownwardDawg]

I'll say under. I have no idea though. This way I'll be happy if we reach that point.

[MarketingBully01]

If Ray is the coach you guys claim him to be, take the over. That schedule would make Stans proud.

[Political Hack]

So from the limited numbers here it looks like if we hit 16-17 wins we will have met expectations.

[preachermatt83]

So from the limited numbers here it looks like if we hit 16-17 wins we will have met expectations.

absolutely.. that would show progress

[Madisonmd]

Way under

[CadaverDawg]

I say under, Hack. I think we win 15-16, and I'll be happy with that

[smootness]

It's still tough to know, for me.

We won 10 games last year, but we also played above our heads. It's possible for us to improve while not seeing a big increase in wins. We will still be very young and not overly talented.

I could see us struggling and winning 13 or so...and I could also see some of our young guys take a big step forward and win the 17+ that a lot of you are predicting.

We'll just have to see what we look like at the beginning of the year. We went 5-4 in the OOC last year (outside of the Maui) with a schedule that wasn't much more difficult than this year's. I would conservatively predict 7 or 8 OOC wins combined with 6 or 7 SEC wins.

[Coach34]

we won 10 with walk-ons and freshmen playing- We will be exponentially better this year

[gravedigger]

I watched them the other day and I'm not convinced yet that they will win that many games. I'd love to be wrong. I don't think it's coaching either. We will need this season and the next recruiting season to see anything approaching 17-20 games in the win column. We will just have to give Ray more time.

[smootness]

I watched them the other day and I'm not convinced yet that they will win that many games. I'd love to be wrong. I don't think it's coaching either. We will need this season and the next recruiting season to see anything approaching 17-20 games in the win column. We will just have to give Ray more time.

And this is what worries me. I see a lot of people saying, well, we'll have a lot more bodies this year so we'll be way better. My worry is that if we continue to struggle and don't win the 17 or 18 that many seem to expect, we'll see it as a bad coaching job and Ray will get a lot of heat.

But the fact is, we're still far behind most other programs in the conference in terms of talent and experience. Again, we played above our heads last year. Based on what we were working with, we had a realistic chance to go winless in the SEC. Just because we won 5 doesn't mean we were truly a 5-win SEC team, and it doesn't mean that by just adding some depth we'll win a lot more. If last year we were really about a 1- or 2-win SEC team, this year we may be a 5- or 6-win SEC team. We overachieved last year, but it doesn't mean we automatically will this year.

I just think we need to pump the brakes a tad on expectations. I'm not saying we can't win 17 or 18, just that I don't think it's a given we should be able to.

[Coach34]

Wins:

Prairie View
Kennesaw State
Valley
Jackson State
Loyola
SE La
Md Eastern Shore
Fla A&M
South Florida

Ole Miss
A&M
Auburn
SC

That's 13 wins I feel confident about

Toss-ups:

@Utah State
TCU
UPig
@ Ole Miss
Georgia
@Georgia
@Auburn

I think we get to 16-17 for sure

[TheRef]

Wins:

Prairie View
Kennesaw State
Valley
Jackson State
Loyola
SE La
Md Eastern Shore
Fla A&M
South Florida

Ole Miss
A&M
Auburn
SC

That's 13 wins I feel confident about

Toss-ups:

@Utah State
TCU
UPig
@ Ole Miss
Georgia
@Georgia
@Auburn

I think we get to 16-17 for sure

Add Florida Gulf Coast to the Win column.

[Coach34]

Add Florida Gulf Coast to the Win column.

FGC was in the Sweet 16 and has 4 starters returning and 8 of top 10 or something like that...

[TheRef]

FGC was in the Sweet 16 and has 4 starters returning and 8 of top 10 or something like that...

I knew they were Sweet 16....figured they wouldn't be AS good since they lost their HC and their top scorer.

[smootness]

I knew they were Sweet 16....figured they wouldn't be AS good since they lost their HC and their top scorer.

They may not be as good as they were last year, but they should certainly still be at least as good as us.

[TheRef]

They may not be as good as they were last year, but they should certainly still be at least as good as us.

Agreed....moved to toss-up....toss-up in favor of FGSU though.

[smootness]

Until I see what kind of team we'll have, I just can't count a lot of sure wins....even teams like Loyola and South Florida could certainly beat us on a given night.

We still have so many unknowns...IJ Ready, Andre Applewhite, Jacoby Davis; we've never seen any of them play. Yes, they should be better options than we had last year, but you just don't know what you have until you see it in a game. Thomas, Sword, and Ware should be better...but how much better? Maybe quite a bit, maybe not enough for them to be completely different players.

I think, based on the pieces we have, there is a chance to get up to 17 or so wins. I just don't think it's a given until we see them actually play some games.

ETA: But we should certainly be exciting to watch. We should be able to ramp the defense up a little more and for longer periods of time, and hopefully we have a better grasp on how to run an offense that is basic but not easy to learn.

[TheRef]

Ware said that IJ may be the surprise of the team with how he has been during scrimmages and practice.

[smootness]

I love his potential and what he brings to our team...but still a true freshman. All I'm saying is that I hope people don't get upset if we don't see a lot more wins than last year. It's still going to take some time.

I will say that if we do in 17 or 18 or more, we have a stud of a coach and need to go ahead and give him a raise.

[dickiedawg]

It's possible for us to improve while not seeing a big increase in wins. We will still be very young and not overly talented.

I don't agree with this. If anything, we could win 13-15 games without improving at all, between an easier non-con schedule and some extra bodies.