Prediction? Pain.
11-19-2018, 11:41 AM
[And apparently the board doesn't like fancypants punctuation. Eff. Any mod feel like changing "R?sum" to "Resume" for me in the thread title?]
So a newish thing in the dork festival that is advanced stats is the "Resume S&P+" ranking. Since the regular S&P+ ranking system is primarily focused on projecting how good teams are looking forward based upon how every team performs on a play-by-play basis, Bill C. decided to do a separate, more backward-looking ranking that gives more weight to each team's strength of schedule and how well each team performs (i.e. scores) against that schedule. Here's his summary:
What if we took the Strength of Record idea and added an extra level of team quality? Let's reintroduce Resume S&P+, which made its debut here in 2017.
Below are each FBS team's rankings in three categories:
S&P+, an overall team efficiency rating system you can read more about here. It can be used to predict wins and losses going forward.
Strength of Schedule (SOS), which amounts to how well the average top-five team (according to S&P+) would fare, in terms of win percentage, against your schedule. The lower the number, the harder the schedule. Why top-five? Because we're using the Playoff?s four-team field as a target, and usually only about five teams have solid playoff cases.
Resume S&P+, which looks at a team's season scoring margin* and compares it to what the average top-five team's scoring margin would've likely been against that schedule. If the number is positive, that team is faring better then the typical top-five team would be. Instead of advanced stats or win probability info, I?m adhering to actual margins.
* While I think we care far too much about scoring margins, I still install a cap -- if either a team?s scoring margin or the top-five projected scoring margin is above 50 points, we?ll simply use 50. That creates plenty of space for dominance, but it assures that, for instance, Fresno State doesn't get too much credit for beating Idaho by 66 points.
Ok, so here are the current Top 5 in his Resume S&P+ rankings (along with those teams S&P+ and strength-of-schedule rankings):
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/9RdUlF-E-XDwwSkaWyViDfTXssKFiHglH0vQc4V1xWHDHTFpvTPWap3MnX0 jhF7ZvM9pJPAYxy011axeYQ1SfZaQ_DXxAD321GDrgLCtEDUoP _0dzzEYYFgUhP1_2itcthSG2R2RdJZo3OYmJnwPHLwh1MtKMCL sgDIK_WP6CPH_vfdY5ksNYHLhZx0blwrq7Lpfz4zMtRIyyIhI6 Hf83GT00JsfWUuUceXiJ01LgN3VUgFDi4yxmg6V3MY5EfnzFMm 9rknQM4AJAYwnFz5MABVjCZLnqD9y2jkcp4ZeFRGZ4XwjHw78g S3_iUsAbXpyH4riRFK7l72DE6ScMcTlr1E2rMiQQyxcQNIyYDT _ErcO6N8nPukVroOizg4upHPywOeLloVTU2MgbjQ1m3hLgT_l1 uNsKKmCDLUEDsabVuSUe-qHH-Ds6sxGVd4zNGJSGZj5QPCK-7SwbYdACJUQHlUocKcIRIgxaQ6QwHdVdIDLmx4QtjjqeeffhjD 3ZzvhKb7o5cZDfc1ZPI6ki_THUaDCiQoAbU72mYZ7DBT_edup5 PQV_OfKku0t_MyZ1e69IxJTSmnKpF-9wT6eUHch7jq36tLpqqtobPS5JYIiYwYDexRYPO9rifi-GqHtRWQDAo6LcrTTORQkhqWPRE1Lvo3Tyw=w749-h253-no
One of those teams obviously looks different than the others. Bill C. took note of that result too and offered an insightful explanation:
The No. 5 team is kind of interesting. Mississippi State has played the eighth-hardest schedule in the country. Joe Moorhead's Bulldogs didn't play anyone of note in non-conference play but have faced the S&P+ No. 1 (Bama), 15 (Auburn), 16 (LSU), 17 (Florida), and 21 (Texas A&M) teams in its SEC slate. They went 2-3 against these teams and are 5-1 against everyone else, which is rather impressive in its own right.
Unlike other division rivals with impressive schedules, though, Mississippi State has utterly dominated when it had the chance. The Bulldogs beat Stephen F. Austin by 57, UL-Lafayette by 46, Louisiana Tech by 42, and, on Saturday, Arkansas by 46.
Compare that to a division rival like LSU. LSU fans will undoubtedly point out that the Tigers beat the Bulldogs head to head, and by a comfortable margin (16 points). But the Bulldogs have countered that by being much more convincing against common opponents. They have played five common opponents (Florida, Auburn, Louisiana Tech, Alabama, Arkansas), and while each team went 3-2 against these teams, MSU's average scoring margin was plus-14.2 points per game, and LSU's was minus-2.4.
Wins still count, of course, and LSU will end up with a nicer bowl game than MSU because of it. But on paper, though LSU was superior to MSU when the two played head-to-head, MSU has been superior for much of the rest of the season.
Interesting.
Also, just in case y'all forgot the sky is blue:
Our defense has played so, so damn well this year. I know our talent is top-flight, but damnation, Shoop. I was one of the most skeptical people on this board about that hire. And, yeah, the next year or two, when we're rebuilding the defense a little, will tell the tale. But to say that the defense has lived up to expectations is selling them short. We've improved at everything. The defense is 5th nationally in S&P+, 6th nationally in FEI, 3rd nationally in yards per play, 7th nationally in yards per play vs. ranked opponents, 2nd nationally in points per game allowed, 12th nationally in points per game allowed vs. ranked opponents, 4th nationally in yards allowed per passing attempt, 3rd nationally in opposing QB rating, 8th nationally in opponents' 3rd down conversion rate, Top 20 nationally in TFLs and sacks per game, 9th nationally in opponents' plays of 20+ yards, and 1st nationally in TDs allowed in the red zone. And of course we're top 3 in the SEC in all of those categories looking at SEC-only games.
One more to go before the bowl. And it's a big one. But well done, Shoop. Well freaking done.
So a newish thing in the dork festival that is advanced stats is the "Resume S&P+" ranking. Since the regular S&P+ ranking system is primarily focused on projecting how good teams are looking forward based upon how every team performs on a play-by-play basis, Bill C. decided to do a separate, more backward-looking ranking that gives more weight to each team's strength of schedule and how well each team performs (i.e. scores) against that schedule. Here's his summary:
What if we took the Strength of Record idea and added an extra level of team quality? Let's reintroduce Resume S&P+, which made its debut here in 2017.
Below are each FBS team's rankings in three categories:
S&P+, an overall team efficiency rating system you can read more about here. It can be used to predict wins and losses going forward.
Strength of Schedule (SOS), which amounts to how well the average top-five team (according to S&P+) would fare, in terms of win percentage, against your schedule. The lower the number, the harder the schedule. Why top-five? Because we're using the Playoff?s four-team field as a target, and usually only about five teams have solid playoff cases.
Resume S&P+, which looks at a team's season scoring margin* and compares it to what the average top-five team's scoring margin would've likely been against that schedule. If the number is positive, that team is faring better then the typical top-five team would be. Instead of advanced stats or win probability info, I?m adhering to actual margins.
* While I think we care far too much about scoring margins, I still install a cap -- if either a team?s scoring margin or the top-five projected scoring margin is above 50 points, we?ll simply use 50. That creates plenty of space for dominance, but it assures that, for instance, Fresno State doesn't get too much credit for beating Idaho by 66 points.
Ok, so here are the current Top 5 in his Resume S&P+ rankings (along with those teams S&P+ and strength-of-schedule rankings):
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/9RdUlF-E-XDwwSkaWyViDfTXssKFiHglH0vQc4V1xWHDHTFpvTPWap3MnX0 jhF7ZvM9pJPAYxy011axeYQ1SfZaQ_DXxAD321GDrgLCtEDUoP _0dzzEYYFgUhP1_2itcthSG2R2RdJZo3OYmJnwPHLwh1MtKMCL sgDIK_WP6CPH_vfdY5ksNYHLhZx0blwrq7Lpfz4zMtRIyyIhI6 Hf83GT00JsfWUuUceXiJ01LgN3VUgFDi4yxmg6V3MY5EfnzFMm 9rknQM4AJAYwnFz5MABVjCZLnqD9y2jkcp4ZeFRGZ4XwjHw78g S3_iUsAbXpyH4riRFK7l72DE6ScMcTlr1E2rMiQQyxcQNIyYDT _ErcO6N8nPukVroOizg4upHPywOeLloVTU2MgbjQ1m3hLgT_l1 uNsKKmCDLUEDsabVuSUe-qHH-Ds6sxGVd4zNGJSGZj5QPCK-7SwbYdACJUQHlUocKcIRIgxaQ6QwHdVdIDLmx4QtjjqeeffhjD 3ZzvhKb7o5cZDfc1ZPI6ki_THUaDCiQoAbU72mYZ7DBT_edup5 PQV_OfKku0t_MyZ1e69IxJTSmnKpF-9wT6eUHch7jq36tLpqqtobPS5JYIiYwYDexRYPO9rifi-GqHtRWQDAo6LcrTTORQkhqWPRE1Lvo3Tyw=w749-h253-no
One of those teams obviously looks different than the others. Bill C. took note of that result too and offered an insightful explanation:
The No. 5 team is kind of interesting. Mississippi State has played the eighth-hardest schedule in the country. Joe Moorhead's Bulldogs didn't play anyone of note in non-conference play but have faced the S&P+ No. 1 (Bama), 15 (Auburn), 16 (LSU), 17 (Florida), and 21 (Texas A&M) teams in its SEC slate. They went 2-3 against these teams and are 5-1 against everyone else, which is rather impressive in its own right.
Unlike other division rivals with impressive schedules, though, Mississippi State has utterly dominated when it had the chance. The Bulldogs beat Stephen F. Austin by 57, UL-Lafayette by 46, Louisiana Tech by 42, and, on Saturday, Arkansas by 46.
Compare that to a division rival like LSU. LSU fans will undoubtedly point out that the Tigers beat the Bulldogs head to head, and by a comfortable margin (16 points). But the Bulldogs have countered that by being much more convincing against common opponents. They have played five common opponents (Florida, Auburn, Louisiana Tech, Alabama, Arkansas), and while each team went 3-2 against these teams, MSU's average scoring margin was plus-14.2 points per game, and LSU's was minus-2.4.
Wins still count, of course, and LSU will end up with a nicer bowl game than MSU because of it. But on paper, though LSU was superior to MSU when the two played head-to-head, MSU has been superior for much of the rest of the season.
Interesting.
Also, just in case y'all forgot the sky is blue:
Our defense has played so, so damn well this year. I know our talent is top-flight, but damnation, Shoop. I was one of the most skeptical people on this board about that hire. And, yeah, the next year or two, when we're rebuilding the defense a little, will tell the tale. But to say that the defense has lived up to expectations is selling them short. We've improved at everything. The defense is 5th nationally in S&P+, 6th nationally in FEI, 3rd nationally in yards per play, 7th nationally in yards per play vs. ranked opponents, 2nd nationally in points per game allowed, 12th nationally in points per game allowed vs. ranked opponents, 4th nationally in yards allowed per passing attempt, 3rd nationally in opposing QB rating, 8th nationally in opponents' 3rd down conversion rate, Top 20 nationally in TFLs and sacks per game, 9th nationally in opponents' plays of 20+ yards, and 1st nationally in TDs allowed in the red zone. And of course we're top 3 in the SEC in all of those categories looking at SEC-only games.
One more to go before the bowl. And it's a big one. But well done, Shoop. Well freaking done.