The Truth is it takes 3 years to know if you made a good hire in most cases

[Irondawg]

Sometimes you can tell if it's a total disaster, but those are rare. In most cases you have to let a coach solidify his staff, get his culture created and have the players HE recruited on the field before you know if a guy is the right guy or not. And that works both ways.

If you take out Bama, Clemson and Oklahoma, there has been a ton of parity in CFB the past 10 years. It's hard to stay good all the time. Powers like TX, Auburn, FSU, USC (Cal), Michigan, Notre Dame that you though were NEVER be medicore to bad have had a poor season or even a stretch of poor seasons.

Look at ND for an example. They've thought Ty Willingham and Charlie Weiss were great coaches. They thought Kelly was a terrible coach at first and although he had the disaster last year he's mostly been really, really good.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/notre-dame/index.html

Moorhead's offense has been awful in SEC games sans Auburn and A&M. No denying it. But we don't look like a disaster against the rest of the schedule which tells me it's not a total trainwreck. Just a very unfortunate, higher than anticipated learning curve which has led to a huge missed opportunity for the 2018 squad to be of these teams we remember for all-time.

If we continue to not be able to score in SEC play for another season or two then you have to make changes, but we need to keep everything in context.

[ShotgunDawg]

Actually, in most successful head coaching tenures, there is a pretty good jump in year 2. In fact, almost all of the top coaches elevated their team in year 2.

That being said, Moorhead May be difficult to evaluate by that method because of the roster and QB turnover after this year. At very least, however, I would expect to see more consistency and crispness on offense next year.

Rosebowl made a great point yesterday about how Mullen had once discussed the changes to the offense that he and Urban had to make after their first year at Florida.

I think for offensive gurus that have never coached in the SEC, they need an offseason between year 1 and 2 to SEC-ify their offense. Minor adjustment must be made to the scheme to account for great speed at every level of the defense.

It's pretty normal if you look back at 1st year SEC coaches. It does seem like guys that have coached in the SEC before seem to have an advantage somehow.

[thf24]

I think for offensive gurus that have never coached in the SEC, they need an offseason between year 1 and 2 to SEC-ify their offense. Minor adjustment must be made to the scheme to account for great speed at every level of the defense.

This I think will be the single most telling thing as far as a long term success indicator goes. If he's as sharp an offensive mind as he was billed to be, he won't have any problem doing this over the course of an offseason and it will be apparent right away next year.

[Tbonewannabe]

Actually, in most successful head coaching tenures, there is a pretty good jump in year 2. In fact, almost all of the top coaches elevated their team in year 2.

That being said, Moorhead May be difficult to evaluate by that method because of the roster and QB turnover after this year. At very least, however, I would expect to see more consistency and crispness on offense next year.

Rosebowl made a great point yesterday about how Mullen had once discussed the changes to the offense that he and Urban had to make after their first year at Florida.

I think for offensive gurus that have never coached in the SEC, they need an offseason between year 1 and 2 to SEC-ify their offense. Minor adjustment must be made to the scheme to account for great speed at every level of the defense.

It's pretty normal if you look back at 1st year SEC coaches. It does seem like guys that have coached in the SEC before seem to have an advantage somehow.

Saban went to the Independence Bowl his first year and Croom beat him. If you believe that at any point in the last 50 years that MSU had more talent than Bama at any point then you just don't know about recruiting. Now the talent level Saban inherited wasn't #1 recruiting class every year type talent but it was consistent top #15 recruiting talent.

[Cooterpoot]

We still have 2 games. All I'm sayin'.

[ShotgunDawg]

Saban went to the Independence Bowl his first year and Croom beat him. If you believe that at any point in the last 50 years that MSU had more talent than Bama at any point then you just don't know about recruiting. Now the talent level Saban inherited wasn't #1 recruiting class every year type talent but it was consistent top #15 recruiting talent.

Agree. Kirby Smart with 7-5 in year 1 at UGA & then played for the natty in year 2. Saban did the same at Bama. It's pretty normal

[ShotgunDawg]

This I think will be the single most telling thing as far as a long term success indicator goes. If he's as sharp an offensive mind as he was billed to be, he won't have any problem doing this over the course of an offseason and it will be apparent right away next year.

Agree. You'll have to grade it on the curve though because of the turnover at QB, center, & the defense. Our record may be worse, but I definitely expect to see a more sound, consistent looking offense

[Lord McBuckethead]

Agree. You'll have to grade it on the curve though because of the turnover at QB, center, & the defense. Our record may be worse, but I definitely expect to see a more sound, consistent looking offense

I can agree with that, but by Game 3 next year, the QB and center better have it figured out.

[99jc]

We all know 1 thing about Moorhead...he can 17 up a good team in less than 1 season.

[Goldendawg]

Will we have a QB sneak from under the center on 4th and inches in the playbook by the 2nd year of the RPO?

[Cooterpoot]

It’s only going to take the next two games to know if he’s bad. It won’t take 3 years.

[99jc]

Bill Clark is better football coach than hardhead will ever be.

[Goldendawg]

Didn't take three years on Croom.

[Dawgfan77]

I?m not a SloMo fan. I think he is more croom than Mullen. However we win these next two and look effective doing it and he lands a grad transfer. I?ll be in the wait and see mode. I?m concerned about thanksgiving and still have my reservations but I?m willing to give him next year if and only if he wins out. He drops the egg or the AR game. We might as well cut our losses.
Random thought... the pressure may get to him and he look at other options. Call me crazy but he is making 2.6 some G 5 could get close to that.... just a random thought based on his recent PC.

[gravedigger]

Sometimes you can tell if it's a total disaster, but those are rare. In most cases you have to let a coach solidify his staff, get his culture created and have the players HE recruited on the field before you know if a guy is the right guy or not. And that works both ways.

If you take out Bama, Clemson and Oklahoma, there has been a ton of parity in CFB the past 10 years. It's hard to stay good all the time. Powers like TX, Auburn, FSU, USC (Cal), Michigan, Notre Dame that you though were NEVER be medicore to bad have had a poor season or even a stretch of poor seasons.

Look at ND for an example. They've thought Ty Willingham and Charlie Weiss were great coaches. They thought Kelly was a terrible coach at first and although he had the disaster last year he's mostly been really, really good.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/notre-dame/index.html

Moorhead's offense has been awful in SEC games sans Auburn and A&M. No denying it. But we don't look like a disaster against the rest of the schedule which tells me it's not a total trainwreck. Just a very unfortunate, higher than anticipated learning curve which has led to a huge missed opportunity for the 2018 squad to be of these teams we remember for all-time.

If we continue to not be able to score in SEC play for another season or two then you have to make changes, but we need to keep everything in context.

Good post, but I think that most fans simply dont understand the management of a football program.We see plays,we see wins and we see losses. We make assumptions on little to no evidence outside of a game-day. We rely on recruiting rankings from people who have played little to no football or have coached it. We make false comparisons of teams and conferences. We are suckers for the latest national sports reporter's clickbait who is only looking for attention and cares nothing about accuracy. In essence we are simple people with an extremely limited view of what goes on inside a football program.

Worst of all we think that Occam's razor means that there is one and only one main reason for all things we see wrong. Fact is there are many variables. Fact is, that anything of long term value was not magically whipped up in a short period. Things that are dysfunctional didnt get that way overnight.

As football fans, we somehow think that the money we give means that results are our entitlement.

So, the fact of the matter is this: College football fans are the ultimate snowflakes. Our situation is 'special'. Our view is myopic. I want, I want, I want, and I'm entitled to have it right this damn minute.

[Walkerhill]

The indicators that we will be able to see soon are continuity in key members the staff (Shoop, Getsy, Huff, Lukabu especially) and closing recruiting strong. We can wait until year 3 for the polished product so long as there are positive indications of progress.

Plus, of course, closing out this season with 2 wins against teams we are favored against.

[BrunswickDawg]

Good post, but I think that most fans simply dont understand the management of a football program.We see plays,we see wins and we see losses. We make assumptions on little to no evidence outside of a game-day. We rely on recruiting rankings from people who have played little to no football or have coached it. We make false comparisons of teams and conferences. We are suckers for the latest national sports reporter's clickbait who is only looking for attention and cares nothing about accuracy. In essence we are simple people with an extremely limited view of what goes on inside a football program.

Worst of all we think that Occam's razor means that there is one and only one main reason for all things we see wrong. Fact is there are many variables. Fact is, that anything of long term value was not magically whipped up in a short period. Things that are dysfunctional didnt get that way overnight.

As football fans, we somehow think that the money we give means that results are our entitlement.

So, the fact of the matter is this: College football fans are the ultimate snowflakes. Our situation is 'special'. Our view is myopic. I want, I want, I want, and I'm entitled to have it right this damn minute.

This is an excellent post.

[basedog]

Here is a question but more of an opinion, I bet most who post on ED don't buy season tickets or they go to less than one game a year. Is that real? Asking for a friend**

I love it when folks say if Coach so and so doesn't or he better do...?.. Internet coaches or alive! LOL



I suppose folks who don't buy tickets or give to Msu should be in the same argument with folks who don't vote.

[RiverCityDawg]

Good post, but I think that most fans simply dont understand the management of a football program.We see plays,we see wins and we see losses. We make assumptions on little to no evidence outside of a game-day. We rely on recruiting rankings from people who have played little to no football or have coached it. We make false comparisons of teams and conferences. We are suckers for the latest national sports reporter's clickbait who is only looking for attention and cares nothing about accuracy. In essence we are simple people with an extremely limited view of what goes on inside a football program.

Worst of all we think that Occam's razor means that there is one and only one main reason for all things we see wrong. Fact is there are many variables. Fact is, that anything of long term value was not magically whipped up in a short period. Things that are dysfunctional didnt get that way overnight.

As football fans, we somehow think that the money we give means that results are our entitlement.

So, the fact of the matter is this: College football fans are the ultimate snowflakes. Our situation is 'special'. Our view is myopic. I want, I want, I want, and I'm entitled to have it right this damn minute.

Nailed it

[99jc]

Here is a question but more of an opinion, I bet most who post on ED don't buy season tickets or they go to less than one game a year. Is that real? Asking for a friend**

I love it when folks say if Coach so and so doesn't or he better do...?.. Internet coaches or alive! LOL



I suppose folks who don't buy tickets or give to Msu should be in the same argument with folks who don't vote.


You can tell who goes to games and who doesn't....look at the in game threads. those who live over 10 hours have an excuse to miss games most don't.

[Coldsleeve Jr.]

Agree. You'll have to grade it on the curve though because of the turnover at QB, center, & the defense. Our record may be worse, but I definitely expect to see a more sound, consistent looking offense

Why grade year 2 on a curve and not year 1 when the talent was much higher?

[cheewgumm]

Everyone wanting patience doesn?t have to worry.

How long wasn?t a Croom here?

[Tbonewannabe]

Why grade year 2 on a curve and not year 1 when the talent was much higher?

We shall see if we actually have more talent than in 2011 which Dan Mullen won 6 games in the regular season. Everyone just assumes that Joe would at least equal the record of the 2014 team that reached number 1. Somehow that became the standard after an 8 win regular season because we returned a lot. Shoop drastically improved the defense, which wasn't a given.

All the advanced statistics show the offense is close to what it was last year, we just played tougher defenses mostly on the road. I don't know why that is completely ignored when Vegas gives an automatic 3 points for just playing at home no matter the team. You would assume that Bama and LSU are at least better than 3 points at home.

[BrunswickDawg]

You can tell who goes to games and who doesn't....look at the in game threads. those who live over 10 hours have an excuse to miss games most don't.

Does 9 hours away plus all my money going to tution for a State student count?***

[RiverCityDawg]

Does 9 hours away plus all my money going to tution for a State student count?***

NO, YOU LAZY DEADBEAT BASTARD, SOMEONE NAMED 99JC ON THE INTERNET SAID 10 HOURS IS THE CUTOFF!!1!1!***

[Coldsleeve Jr.]

We shall see if we actually have more talent than in 2011 which Dan Mullen won 6 games in the regular season. Everyone just assumes that Joe would at least equal the record of the 2014 team that reached number 1. Somehow that became the standard after an 8 win regular season because we returned a lot. Shoop drastically improved the defense, which wasn't a given.

All the advanced statistics show the offense is close to what it was last year, we just played tougher defenses mostly on the road. I don't know why that is completely ignored when Vegas gives an automatic 3 points for just playing at home no matter the team. You would assume that Bama and LSU are at least better than 3 points at home.

Agree but thats largely skewed due to how well we performed against weak non sec teams. Against sec we avg 15 less per game than last year.

[Tbonewannabe]

Agree but thats largely skewed due to how well we performed against weak non sec teams. Against sec we avg 15 less per game than last year.

We also played on the Road against the better SEC defenses. On the Road last year, we pretty much did the same against the better SEC defenses.

[Tbonewannabe]

Agree but thats largely skewed due to how well we performed against weak non sec teams. Against sec we avg 15 less per game than last year.

So just looked at 2017 when our Offense was so awesome.

3 points at UGA, UK is pretty much giving up the same points per game this year.
10 points at AU, LSU is pretty much giving up the same points per game this year.
35 points at A&M, They were actually rated #87 in scoring defense last year. A&M was only giving up 30 points per game so we exceeded their AVERAGE.
28 points at Ark, They were ranked #115 and our Juggernaut offense scored a TD less than they were average giving up.

So on the Road, we sucked against good defenses and did well against REALLY BAD defenses. That is odd, we have done similarly this year.

Let us look at Home games.

37 points against LSU. Defense was ranked similar to Auburn this year. 23 points so that is a big swing. Of course if you account for the fact we ran for 350 yards which burns up clock then not too far off but still less. Both of those are GREAT defenses.

45 points against UK. AHA, proof that Joe sucks. Well UK had the #78 scoring defense last year and the game was played at MSU. This year UK is #11. That is a big difference in the defense faced this year and it was at UK.

24 points against Bama. We did the best job against a Bama defense in the Saban era. 2014 only scored 13 points prior to a TD within the last 19 seconds with the game pretty much over. Outstanding unless you take into consideration that 2014 was in Tuscaloosa. The average offensive score in Tuscaloosa with a Mullen offense is ....7 points outside of 2014. Wait, Joe must really suck if he can't at least tie the MOST POINTS that Dan Mullen scored in Tuscaloosa. Bama's defense has to be worse this year. Oh wait, they are #1 in the country this year also while giving up almost the same exact points per game.

28 points against UM, UM had a shit defense last year #110 but you have to give leeway when Fitz went down. UM was averaging giving up 34 points per game. We easily surpass that if Fitz is healthy. Of course I guess we will see tomorrow how we do against that same level of defense when we face Arkansas.

[Really Clark?]

We shall see if we actually have more talent than in 2011 which Dan Mullen won 6 games in the regular season. Everyone just assumes that Joe would at least equal the record of the 2014 team that reached number 1. Somehow that became the standard after an 8 win regular season because we returned a lot. Shoop drastically improved the defense, which wasn't a given.

All the advanced statistics show the offense is close to what it was last year, we just played tougher defenses mostly on the road. I don't know why that is completely ignored when Vegas gives an automatic 3 points for just playing at home no matter the team. You would assume that Bama and LSU are at least better than 3 points at home.

I love the advanced numbers but the S & P has misrepresented us and is one of the worse predicted teams they have this season, at 29%. There was an article about it in the last week or two. Specifically mentioned us and Ok St as being projected high and ranked higher than the eye test. The S & P is at 55% ats but it’s formula has missed us to 29% ats. The S & P formula has us skewed in its formula for this season.

[BrunswickDawg]

So just looked at 2017 when our Offense was so awesome.

3 points at UGA, UK is pretty much giving up the same points per game this year.
10 points at AU, LSU is pretty much giving up the same points per game this year.
35 points at A&M, They were actually rated #87 in scoring defense last year. A&M was only giving up 30 points per game so we exceeded their AVERAGE.
28 points at Ark, They were ranked #115 and our Juggernaut offense scored a TD less than they were average giving up.

So on the Road, we sucked against good defenses and did well against REALLY BAD defenses. That is odd, we have done similarly this year.

Let us look at Home games.

37 points against LSU. Defense was ranked similar to Auburn this year. 23 points so that is a big swing. Of course if you account for the fact we ran for 350 yards which burns up clock then not too far off but still less. Both of those are GREAT defenses.

45 points against UK. AHA, proof that Joe sucks. Well UK had the #78 scoring defense last year and the game was played at MSU. This year UK is #11. That is a big difference in the defense faced this year and it was at UK.

24 points against Bama. We did the best job against a Bama defense in the Saban era. 2014 only scored 13 points prior to a TD within the last 19 seconds with the game pretty much over. Outstanding unless you take into consideration that 2014 was in Tuscaloosa. The average offensive score in Tuscaloosa with a Mullen offense is ....7 points outside of 2014. Wait, Joe must really suck if he can't at least tie the MOST POINTS that Dan Mullen scored in Tuscaloosa. Bama's defense has to be worse this year. Oh wait, they are #1 in the country this year also while giving up almost the same exact points per game.

28 points against UM, UM had a shit defense last year #110 but you have to give leeway when Fitz went down. UM was averaging giving up 34 points per game. We easily surpass that if Fitz is healthy. Of course I guess we will see tomorrow how we do against that same level of defense when we face Arkansas.

Our defenses also got torched on the road last year - mainly by big plays. While 3rd and Grantham wasn't as prevalent as at some of his other stops, it bit us in the ass a number of times early in games. Defense on the road got us down quickly in 1st quarters - 14-0 against UGA, 14-3 against Auburn, and 14-0 against Arkansas. Arkansas was just so shitty we came back. We also let UMASS back in the game in the 2nd and taking a lead into the locker room - at home.

So, our defense improving and keeping us in those game until late improved our chances, but ultimately we saw roughly the same results.

[Tbonewannabe]

I love the advanced numbers but the S & P has misrepresented us and is one of the worse predicted teams they have this season, at 29%. There was an article about it in the last week or two. Specifically mentioned us and Ok St as being projected high and ranked higher than the eye test. The S & P is at 55% ats but it’s formula has missed us to 29% ats. The S & P formula has us skewed in its formula for this season.

So your opinion is that Offense is affected almost ZERO by going on the Road?

[Really Clark?]

So your opinion is that Offense is affected almost ZERO by going on the Road?

No. My post was about the analytics you are hanging your hat on. They admit the formula is wrong with how it’s valuing us this season. So it’s skewing the rankings. When it’s applied to actual games, are at 55% across the board ats but are at 29% with us. They rate us as one of the worse performers with the analytics this season. Analytics is good and it’s a good stat to use for predicting but they also, and we should to, analysis the analytic.

And not all analytics likes our offense similar to last year, Massey-Peabody had us Top 25 last year and around 39 or 37 this year. My point is while advanced stats are good, do what they do, analysis it as well.

[Tbonewannabe]

No. My post was about the analytics you are hanging your hat on. They admit the formula is wrong with how it’s valuing us this season. So it’s skewing the rankings. When it’s applied to actual games, are at 55% across the board ats but are at 29% with us. They rate us as one of the worse performers with the analytics this season. Analytics is good and it’s a good stat to use for predicting but they also, and we should to, analysis the analytic.

And not all analytics likes our offense similar to last year, Massey-Peabody had us Top 25 last year and around 39 or 37 this year. My point is while advanced stats are good, do what they do, analysis it as well.

One thing that has been proven throughout MSU history is you can't automatically expect improvement. You could assume that all things equal, our offense would be improved, unfortunately that isn't the case.

We have 2 and possibly 3 games left that can improve our offensive numbers. We might not end up with as good of an offense as last year but with Fitz not being a good fit for this year (I doubt anyone disagrees with that) there was bound to be some regression.

More than anything, people are letting the highest of expectations along with the name on the jersey affect their opinions. UK actually has a very similar scoring defense this year compared to UGA last year. Everyone accepted scoring 3 points at UGA but against a comparable defense in UK, 7 points is enough to fire Moorehead over. It is these type issues that has clouded overall judgement.

We just assume that we will improve but no one else will. UK went from #78 in scoring defense (even if you think our game skewed the results, it wouldn't have had that big an impact) to #11 currently.

Auburn is pretty much equal from last year's scoring defense to this year. We accept only scoring 10 against that defense but against LSU who has a very similar defense we scored 3. We scored 3 points even though Fitz had one of the worst QB performances in a SEC game in MSU history. I guess Moorhead is partly to blame for letting Fitz keep throwing to the other team and not at least putting in KT. You never can tell what the issue was.