It is interesting looking at our expectations coming into this year

[Tbonewannabe]

#11 defense on the road, #34 at home (Mitchell dropped the win), #12 defense on the road, #1 defense on the road.

I agree that the offense in those games has looked like shit but let's not think that was an easy schedule against shit defenses. If we struggle against Ark or UM then we can all panic.

3-10-7-7-7-20(garbage TD with 1 min left)-6-3-24. So the 7 points the refs literally stole from us is pretty much the mode value in the last 10 years playing Bama. So just to remind you, we had the NFL Rookie of the Year starting QB who scored 7, 20, and 6 points in his career against Bama in a system he was in for 5 years.

It seems that we are holding Moorhead to a higher standard than any coach in our history. Moorhead is averaging 41 points per game against teams outside the top 25. I realize in the SEC that you play a lot of top 25 teams but with a coaching and offensive system change there might be a set back. If we still struggle next year then we have problems.

We are possibly finishing with 3rd best record in the last 20 years, 2nd best in the last 15 years, we might want to back up off the cliff.

[Mudhole]

Can't wait to see how jo reacts when he gets a load of the egg bowl. That will tell us a lot

[TrapGame]

If Ark and OM hold us to 20 points or less then it's time. This should be 70/30 run/pass and beating their brains in.

[msstate7]

I think we win the last 2 too, but we made the same mistake vs Kentucky and Florida. Might wanna actually win these 2 before chalking up the 8-4

[Really Clark?]

#11 defense on the road, #34 at home (Mitchell dropped the win), #12 defense on the road, #1 defense on the road.

I agree that the offense in those games has looked like shit but let's not think that was an easy schedule against shit defenses. If we struggle against Ark or UM then we can all panic.

3-10-7-7-7-20(garbage TD with 1 min left)-6-3-24. So the 7 points the refs literally stole from us is pretty much the mode value in the last 10 years playing Bama. So just to remind you, we had the NFL Rookie of the Year starting QB who scored 7, 20, and 6 points in his career against Bama in a system he was in for 5 years.

It seems that we are holding Moorhead to a higher standard than any coach in our history. Moorhead is averaging 41 points per game against teams outside the top 25. I realize in the SEC that you play a lot of top 25 teams but with a coaching and offensive system change there might be a set back. If we still struggle next year then we have problems.

We are possibly finishing with 3rd best record in the last 20 years, 2nd best in the last 15 years, we might want to back up off the cliff.

Please find me the new coach that has had a 15 point drop in his conference scoring or if it?s a defensive coach 15 points higher. Nobody is disputing a reasonable regression would have been expected.

Worse scoring average vs ranked teams since 2005 Croom and it was also better than this season, I just stopped looking and comparing at that point since 2005 is the worse offense I?ve seen us have in 30 years. The only saving grace for Moorehead is a horrid offensive performance vs a weak defense. That?s the only defense between this offense and some of the worse in our history. Hopefully and I seriously doubt it happens, that trends continues the next 2 weeks vs very bad defenses. And I have no reason to believe it won?t.

[Tbonewannabe]

I think we win the last 2 too, but we made the same mistake vs Kentucky and Florida. Might wanna actually win these 2 before chalking up the 8-4

I had those as wins at the beginning of the year also but I also thought we would lose to AU (preseason top 10) and A&M (Jimbo affect). I thought best case scenario was 10-2 with losses to Bama and AU. I figured on 9-3 with a loss to either A&M or LSU.

I don't think anyone thought that UK and UF would both be 9 win teams. Similar to how no one really thought we would be a 9 win team after going 6-7 in 2016.

As far as rankings go, do you think it would be a successful season if we end the year ranked higher than our preseason prediction?

[MetEdDawg]

#11 defense on the road, #34 at home (Mitchell dropped the win), #12 defense on the road, #1 defense on the road.

I agree that the offense in those games has looked like shit but let's not think that was an easy schedule against shit defenses. If we struggle against Ark or UM then we can all panic.

3-10-7-7-7-20(garbage TD with 1 min left)-6-3-24. So the 7 points the refs literally stole from us is pretty much the mode value in the last 10 years playing Bama. So just to remind you, we had the NFL Rookie of the Year starting QB who scored 7, 20, and 6 points in his career against Bama in a system he was in for 5 years.

It seems that we are holding Moorhead to a higher standard than any coach in our history. Moorhead is averaging 41 points per game against teams outside the top 25. I realize in the SEC that you play a lot of top 25 teams but with a coaching and offensive system change there might be a set back. If we still struggle next year then we have problems.

We are possibly finishing with 3rd best record in the last 20 years, 2nd best in the last 15 years, we might want to back up off the cliff.

The problem so far is that outside of the fact that our offense has stunk, a good portion of the fan base still thinks LSU, Kentucky, and Florida suck. Even if we beat all 3 of those teams, they will all finish with 8 or more wins.

If Moorhead had gotten a Florida that didn't have our former coach and a Kentucky that wasn't the best Kentucky team in the last 40 years, this thing might have turned out different. In hindsight, I don't think any of us thought LSU, Kentucky, or Florida were potential 10 win teams. All 3 of them have 7 or more wins right now and all of them should finish with 9 wins. Those are good ball clubs and we played two of them on the road and the other one had our former HC as their HC. So even if we beat all 3 of them, they would all still have a great shot at 8 or 9 wins. So let's not act like Joe Mo had a cakewalk schedule. For an even year this was a particularly difficult draw compared to previous even years.

[confucius say]

Where did we start the season, 18?

[Tbonewannabe]

Please find me the new coach that has had a 15 point drop in his conference scoring or if it?s a defensive coach 15 points higher. Nobody is disputing a reasonable regression would have been expected.

Worse scoring average vs ranked teams since 2005 Croom and it was also better than this season, I just stopped looking and comparing at that point since 2005 is the worse offense I?ve seen us have in 30 years. The only saving grace for Moorehead is a horrid offensive performance vs a weak defense. That?s the only defense between this offense and some of the worse in our history. Hopefully and I seriously doubt it happens, that trends continues the next 2 weeks vs very bad defenses. And I have no reason to believe it won?t.

Chip Kelly at UCLA. Of course he only dropped 11 points per game but do we even compare Chip Kelly vs Moorhead. There is exactly zero people that wouldn't have taken Chip in a heartbeat. He has been mentioned as the top tier along with Urban and Saban for what he did at Oregon.

Do you think everyone at UCLA want to fire Chip Kelly? Also, they would face zero defenses at the level that MSU does almost every week.

[Mudhole]

I'm not advocating anyone get fired, but what did chip inherit compared to Mo? Just wondering

[Tbonewannabe]

The problem so far is that outside of the fact that our offense has stunk, a good portion of the fan base still thinks LSU, Kentucky, and Florida suck. Even if we beat all 3 of those teams, they will all finish with 8 or more wins.

If Moorhead had gotten a Florida that didn't have our former coach and a Kentucky that wasn't the best Kentucky team in the last 40 years, this thing might have turned out different. In hindsight, I don't think any of us thought LSU, Kentucky, or Florida were potential 10 win teams. All 3 of them have 7 or more wins right now and all of them should finish with 9 wins. Those are good ball clubs and we played two of them on the road and the other one had our former HC as their HC. So even if we beat all 3 of them, they would all still have a great shot at 8 or 9 wins. So let's not act like Joe Mo had a cakewalk schedule. For an even year this was a particularly difficult draw compared to previous even years.

Dan Mullen is also a great coach at maximizing what he has. Joe seems to need certain types of players to run his offense. Whether Cohen should have hired someone that could have won 1 or 2 more games this year but sacrifice a possible upside in the future, I guess we can debate that.

Bama has been beaten by explosive passing teams. Dan Mullen came close 1 time in 10 years and it was when Bama had a lot of injuries on defense. I never expected us to beat Bama. I think Cohen rolled the dice to hopefully get an offense that gave us a shot.

[Really Clark?]

Chip Kelly at UCLA. Of course he only dropped 11 points per game but do we even compare Chip Kelly vs Moorhead. There is exactly zero people that wouldn't have taken Chip in a heartbeat. He has been mentioned as the top tier along with Urban and Saban for what he did at Oregon.

Do you think everyone at UCLA want to fire Chip Kelly? Also, they would face zero defenses at the level that MSU does almost every week.

They have dropped 4.9 points scoring for their conference games from last year. Not overall scoring. The overall scoring drop was from a tougher OOC schedule this season. Not to mention that is a legitimate wholesale scheme change with depleted talent. So no, not close to our conference scoring drop.

[Tbonewannabe]

I'm not advocating anyone get fired, but what did chip inherit compared to Mo? Just wondering

UCLA's average recruiting ranking over the past 5 years is 14th in the country. MSU is 23rd in that same time frame.

[Tbonewannabe]

They have dropped 4.9 points scoring for their conference games from last year. Not overall scoring. The overall scoring drop was from a tougher OOC schedule this season. Not to mention that is a legitimate wholesale scheme change with depleted talent. So no, not close to our conference scoring drop.

Just in case you didn't know but the Pac 12 SUCKS at defense. Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and Fresno State - I don't see any great defense there either.

[BB30]

I'm not advocating anyone get fired, but what did chip inherit compared to Mo? Just wondering

Seeing as he plays in the PAC it shouldn't matter. UCLA was scoring the previous year and now a guy perceived as a great offensive mind didn't do as good as the previous coach. Surely it couldn't be the fact that the team switched systems and doesn't have the exact personnel needed to run the offense.. Na it has to be the fact that he didn't inherit a lot since it's Chip...

The situations are almost identical. What did JOMO inherit that fits his system and what he likes to do? A TE for a QB and a bunch of scrub WRs. JOMO has tried to make changes to fit the offense to what he has to work with and the bottom line is he doesn't have a lot to work with on the offensive side of the ball. We just do not have a lot of top end talent on that side.

Same reason Shoop looked like Sh** at Tennessee and looks great here. It is all Talent. You can be the best coach in the world but if you don't have talent you won't be nearly as good.

Put Saban at Vandy and see how well he does.

[Mudhole]

I guess I was talking about from an experience standpoint.

[msstate7]

Seeing as he plays in the PAC it shouldn't matter. UCLA was scoring the previous year and now a guy perceived as a great offensive mind didn't do as good as the previous coach. Surely it couldn't be the fact that the team switched systems and doesn't have the exact personnel needed to run the offense.. Na it has to be the fact that he didn't inherit a lot since it's Chip...

The situations are almost identical. What did JOMO inherit that fits his system and what he likes to do? A TE for a QB and a bunch of scrub WRs. JOMO has tried to make changes to fit the offense to what he has to work with and the bottom line is he doesn't have a lot to work with on the offensive side of the ball. We just do not have a lot of top end talent on that side.

Same reason Shoop looked like Sh** at Tennessee and looks great here. It is all Talent. You can be the best coach in the world but if you don't have talent you won't be nearly as good.

Put Saban at Vandy and see how well he does.

We've seen franklin and shoop at vandy. They worked out

[Tbonewannabe]

I guess I was talking about from an experience standpoint.

Not that many seniors so they are light on experience but their recruiting class last year was 8 so they might have just talent pushing out experience. They had several true freshmen starting over more experienced players.

[Really Clark?]

Just in case you didn't know but the Pac 12 SUCKS at defense. Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and Fresno State - I don't see any great defense there either.

Mora also played in the PAC-12 so it’s apples to apples. Mora also had big numbers vs Memphis and Hawaii and QB drafted in what round? And yet against the same conference opponents, which you can draw a much better comparison, Chip has only a 4.9 point regression. Better than -15

[MetEdDawg]

Dan Mullen is also a great coach at maximizing what he has. Joe seems to need certain types of players to run his offense. Whether Cohen should have hired someone that could have won 1 or 2 more games this year but sacrifice a possible upside in the future, I guess we can debate that.

Bama has been beaten by explosive passing teams. Dan Mullen came close 1 time in 10 years and it was when Bama had a lot of injuries on defense. I never expected us to beat Bama. I think Cohen rolled the dice to hopefully get an offense that gave us a shot.

I think he made the right choice as far as offensive mindset. In the SEC you aren't going to win without defense, but it has been proven again and again that if you can't pass the ball you can't win consistently. Bama, Georgia, Florida, and Auburn have shown that you have to be able to throw the football enough to take pressure off the box to win. That wasn't Dan's philosophy which is why I believe we had maximized our performance under him.

I do think Moorhead's offense is very player-dependent. Moreso than others. Hell we almost beat Bama with Damien Williams under Mullen. So I think Mullen has a better grasp of adjusting to players. But I think Moorhead's offensive philosophy has a better chance of having higher levels of success than Mullen's.

[Really Clark?]

Seeing as he plays in the PAC it shouldn't matter. UCLA was scoring the previous year and now a guy perceived as a great offensive mind didn't do as good as the previous coach. Surely it couldn't be the fact that the team switched systems and doesn't have the exact personnel needed to run the offense.. Na it has to be the fact that he didn't inherit a lot since it's Chip...

The situations are almost identical. What did JOMO inherit that fits his system and what he likes to do? A TE for a QB and a bunch of scrub WRs. JOMO has tried to make changes to fit the offense to what he has to work with and the bottom line is he doesn't have a lot to work with on the offensive side of the ball. We just do not have a lot of top end talent on that side.

Same reason Shoop looked like Sh** at Tennessee and looks great here. It is all Talent. You can be the best coach in the world but if you don't have talent you won't be nearly as good.

Put Saban at Vandy and see how well he does.

Chip is only 4.9 points off of Mora’s conference avg. I don’t like Chip but that’s a lot better with a huge scheme change (our scheme is much closer to last years) and losing a drafted QB than our 15 point regression

[Tbonewannabe]

Mora also played in the PAC-12 so it’s apples to apples. Mora also had big numbers vs Memphis and Hawaii and QB drafted in what round? And yet against the same conference opponents, which you can draw a much better comparison, Chip has only a 4.9 point regression. Better than -15

Chip is also known as one of the top offensive minds in college football. So with higher rated recruits and he still saw a regression.

Also doesn't take into account that UK and UF are vastly improved from last year but Chip isn't seeing that level of opponent improvement.

[msstate7]

Mora also played in the PAC-12 so it’s apples to apples. Mora also had big numbers vs Memphis and Hawaii and QB drafted in what round? And yet against the same conference opponents, which you can draw a much better comparison, Chip has only a 4.9 point regression. Better than -15

UCLA also lost an OT (1st round pick 15), guard, and a WR to the nfl draft

[BB30]

We've seen franklin and shoop at vandy. They worked out


And again it goes back to talent. Franklin was able to recruit at a higher level than most Vanderbilt coaches have been able too. Vandy went from recruiting in the 70s and 80s to the 40s with a high water mark under franklin of 26th. They also had the benefit of coaching in a down SEC East.

Comparing JOMO coaching in the SEC W to Franklin in the East isn't the same. Let Franklin come back to Vandy now and see how well he is able to do having to deal with two teams that are about to be rolling, a better KY and a USC that is competitive.

If you offer me a team that is loaded with talent with an average coach or a team that has a great coach with poor talent I will take the average coach and great talent every time and beat you 9/10.

JOMO may not be the answer but I won't let one potential 8-4 season(assuming we take care of business) be the determining factor in whether or not he will be successful here. Especially when looking at what talent he has to work with on the offensive side of the ball.

Does it suck we wasted the best defense we have had in the last decade and possibly ever, absolutely. Mullen should have recruited better on the offensive side of the ball.

[DancingRabbit]

We've seen franklin and shoop at vandy. They worked out

Yeah, they're pretty sharp guys. They've shown they believe in Joe in the past, and I bet both would say right now that they have confidence in him going forward.

I can't fathom the melt we'd be seeing if Grantham was still the DC here. But he's not. Joe went and hired a guy that many here didn't want. Shoop took this defense from great to greater.

The offense has some talent, but many of the pieces here need that weird Dan/Hev secret sauce to be better than average.

[BB30]

It's no surprise to anyone that our defense is so good because we recruited well on that side of the ball. We are absolutely stacked on defense. Those are the types of players you have to have to consistently win a lot of games and play with the big boys.

If we had the same type of talent on offense we would be cruising on that side of the ball as well.

[Liverpooldawg]

I used to get blasted for saying this, but Mullen is VERY good at working with what he has. So was Heavesy. Dan was also a QB guru for his style QB, one of the best if not THE best in the country. Look at Chris Relf. Look at Fitz. That being said I think we are probably one game better right now with Mullen, the Florida game.

[Really Clark?]

Chip is also known as one of the top offensive minds in college football. So with higher rated recruits and he still saw a regression.

Also doesn't take into account that UK and UF are vastly improved from last year but Chip isn't seeing that level of opponent improvement.

A normal regression with the loss of a QB and talent. Only 5 returning starters (ranked 83rd we were 9th) I don’t have a problem with that. If we had dropped 5 points I wouldn’t say anything. 15 point drop is only the 3rd time in decades were we failed to score double digits in 4 or more games is way beyond a normal regression. Way beyond.

[BB30]

I used to get blasted for saying this, but Mullen is VERY good at working with what he has. So was Heavesy. Dan was also a QB guru for his style QB, one of the best if not THE best in the country. Look at Chris Relf. Look at Fitz. That being said I think we are probably one game better right now with Mullen, the Florida game.

I would agree with you 100%. But, I'm not ready to call this hire a complete failure yet. The fact of the matter is we aren't very talented on offense. Yes, we have a ton of experience and shouldn't be having the number of false starts, bad snaps etc. that is on the coach but to say that we are extremely talented on offense and that this staff ruined a bunch of talented guys is not a reality.

If Mullen were still here Guidry would most likely not be here as well. So I am not ready to say that our offense would be all that much better.

We would have lost Gray, Thomas, Couch, and possibly Todd and replaced them with who? Those guys played a fairly significant role in our passing game last year. Not that any of them were top level talent but that is a good chunk of production gone with seemingly no one to pick up a lot of the slack.

The guys returning that played a significant role in our passing game include Jesse Jackson who had 27 catches, Keith Mixon who had 18 catches, and Dedrick Thomas who had 22 grabs.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Chip is only 4.9 points off of Mora’s conference avg. I don’t like Chip but that’s a lot better with a huge scheme change (our scheme is much closer to last years) and losing a drafted QB than our 15 point regression

The UCLA comparisons are interesting. I'm at a seminar, so I can't give it a full look, but the advanced stats show that UCLA's regression is indeed pretty bad. They were 15th nationally in offensive S&P+ last year. Right now they're 88th.

[confucius say]

A normal regression with the loss of a QB and talent. Only 5 returning starters (ranked 83rd we were 9th) I don’t have a problem with that. If we had dropped 5 points I wouldn’t say anything. 15 point drop is only the 3rd time in decades were we failed to score double digits in 4 or more games is way beyond a normal regression. Way beyond.

You have to let the season play out first. If we score 40 against ark and OM those numbers change drastically and are much closer to that 5 point dropoff with which you are okay.

[BB30]

You have to let the season play out first. If we score 40 against ark and OM those numbers change drastically and are much closer to that 5 point dropoff with which you are okay.

Yep I would imagine after the Auburn and UGA game last year our offensive numbers and ranking probably wasn't all that great.

[msstate7]

The UCLA comparisons are interesting. I'm at a seminar, so I can't give it a full look, but the advanced stats show that UCLA's regression is indeed pretty bad. They were 15th nationally in offensive S&P+ last year. Right now they're 88th.

And ours? UCLA lost 4 nfl players with 2 in the top 15 picks

[Johnson85]

I had those as wins at the beginning of the year also but I also thought we would lose to AU (preseason top 10) and A&M (Jimbo affect). I thought best case scenario was 10-2 with losses to Bama and AU. I figured on 9-3 with a loss to either A&M or LSU.

I don't think anyone thought that UK and UF would both be 9 win teams. Similar to how no one really thought we would be a 9 win team after going 6-7 in 2016.

As far as rankings go, do you think it would be a successful season if we end the year ranked higher than our preseason prediction?

I don't think people expected Uk and UF to be 9 win teams, but nobody expected Auburn to be a dumpster fire and many were concerned that A&M might be good. And I don't think anybody expected our defense to be quite this good. As high as expectations were, I think most people would have thought our D would require some support from the offense to have these stats.

[msstate7]

You have to let the season play out first. If we score 40 against ark and OM those numbers change drastically and are much closer to that 5 point dropoff with which you are okay.

40 a piece leaves us at 18.4 ppg... 13th in sec

[Really Clark?]

You have to let the season play out first. If we score 40 against ark and OM those numbers change drastically and are much closer to that 5 point dropoff with which you are okay.

Yes and have said several times this is just at this point and you have to see where we are at the end of the year. We won’t get to about the 5 point regression with out scoring 100 points total the next two games

[BB30]

40 a piece leaves us at 18.4 ppg... 13th in sec

Where do you think realistically we should have finished on offense this year? Taking a slight regression and the lack of talent at WR into account? Or, what would have been acceptable in your mind?

I would say we should have finished no worse than 8th-9th in the conference. Which probably would have been good enough to win us one for sure and maybe 2 more games.

I agree we have underachieved a bit but it isn't nearly as bad as some are making it out to be when the margin of error is so incredibly slim.


I think more of our fans are frustrated simply because we have on of our best defenses in history and it just sucks that it happened to be this year when we haven't had consistent offensive play. Give us this defense last year or in 14 and we potentially go on to win the west.

[msstate7]

Where do you think realistically we should have finished on offense this year? Taking a slight regression and the lack of talent at WR into account? Or, what would have been acceptable in your mind?

I would say we should have finished no worse than 8th-9th in the conference. Which probably would have been good enough to win us one for sure and maybe 2 more games.

I agree we have underachieved a bit but it isn't nearly as bad as some are making it out to be when the margin of error is so incredibly slim.


I think more of our fans are frustrated simply because we have on of our best defenses in history and it just sucks that it happened to be this year when we haven't had consistent offensive play. Give us this defense last year or in 14 and we potentially go on to win the west.

17 points at Kentucky
21 vs Florida
17 vs LSU
35 in next 2

That would put us at 22 ppg and a 10-2 record imo. If we scored 17 vs Kentucky, we win. Our defense quit when we blew our 2nd chance to tie the game at the end of the 3rd and 9 min mark in the 4th.

[confucius say]

40 a piece leaves us at 18.4 ppg... 13th in sec

So that would be a 7.8 drop from last years 26.25. My point is that is close to a drop of 5, which he said would be fine.

[Really Clark?]

So that would be a 7.8 drop from last years 26.25. My point is that is close to a drop of 5, which he said would be fine.

Well that’s a little misinterpreted, 5 points in the regression at this point in the season is a normal expectation. Compare to the other new coaches in the league, that’s what you expect. But I have said the next two games do mean something. Not that it will completely absolve the numbers, still multiple horrendous markers but the numbers will be more bearable. Sorry for the confusion

[Tbonewannabe]

17 points at Kentucky
21 vs Florida
17 vs LSU
35 in next 2

That would put us at 22 ppg and a 10-2 record imo. If we scored 17 vs Kentucky, we win. Our defense quit when we blew our 2nd chance to tie the game at the end of the 3rd and 9 min mark in the 4th.

Honestly, penalties screwed us as much as anything at UK. Fitz trying to throw it all the time in that shitty rain didn't help either. There was numerous times in that game that it looked like Fitz should have ran for about 10 yards but he kept chunking it (I was at the game and didn't rewatch on TV so there could have been reasons he didn't run). I think if Joe had just pulled him and let KT run the damn option, we might have won. Saying that, when every series started with a 1st and 15, it didn't lead to a great offensive day.

[BrunswickDawg]

I used to get blasted for saying this, but Mullen is VERY good at working with what he has. So was Heavesy. Dan was also a QB guru for his style QB, one of the best if not THE best in the country. Look at Chris Relf. Look at Fitz. That being said I think we are probably one game better right now with Mullen, the Florida game.

You said something very important here that people like to ignore - DAN's style QB. Dan was great with HIS style QB. With other styles, not so much. He had no clue how to use the best pro-style passer we've had in Tyler Russell.

And this won't be popular - but we won 5 in '09 in spite of how he used Tyson Lee. Go look at Lee's stats. Tyson was not great in '08 - but he at least threw more TDs then INTS (7 and 5). Under Mullen, Lee threw less TDs (4) and over 2x as many INTS (14). Dan forcing Lee to do what he could not do cost us the LSU game between the 3 picks and the non-hand off to Boobie, and possibly the UF game (3 picks) and Houston (2 picks in the 4th Qrt pick to lead to go ahead drive). Keep in mind - Tyson was a JUCO All-American, he had experience and some ability. But, he was in a new system he was not equipped to run, and the offense as a whole was learning a new system. You saw a huge difference in '10 when Dan had HIS type of QB running his system. You even saw it late in '09 when Relf took over the Egg Bowl.

[msstate7]

You said something very important here that people like to ignore - DAN's style QB. Dan was great with HIS style QB. With other styles, not so much. He had no clue how to use the best pro-style passer we've had in Tyler Russell.

And this won't be popular - but we won 5 in '09 in wasspite of how he used Tyson Lee. Go look at Lee's stats. Tyson was not great in '08 - but he at least threw more TDs then INTS (7 and 5). Under Mullen, Lee threw less TDs (4) and over 2x as many INTS (14). Dan forcing Lee to do what he could not do cost us the LSU game between the 3 picks and the non-hand off to Boobie, and possibly the UF game (3 picks) and Houston (2 picks in the 4th Qrt pick to lead to go ahead drive). Keep in mind - Tyson was a JUCO All-American, he had experience and some ability. But, he was in a new system he was not equipped to run, and the offense as a whole was learning a new system. You saw a huge difference in '10 when Dan had HIS type of QB running his system. You even saw it late in '09 when Relf took over the Egg Bowl.

2012 was the only full year of Tyler Russell. We avg'd 25.3 ppg in conf. Franks is a pass first guy at Florida, and Mullen is avg 26.1 ppg in conf

[Tbonewannabe]

2012 was the only full year of Tyler Russell. We avg'd 25.3 ppg in conf. Franks is a pass first guy at Florida, and Mullen is avg 26.1 ppg in conf

Franks >>>>>>>>> Russell at running the ball. Franks might be a pass first guy but he can tote the rock. I remember watching Tyler run and you could almost see his Oline passing him. He had a great arm but looked like he was running with concrete shoes.

[Really Clark?]

Franks >>>>>>>>> Russell at running the ball. Franks might be a pass first guy but he can tote the rock. I remember watching Tyler run and you could almost see his Oline passing him. He had a great arm but looked like he was running with concrete shoes.

Russell ran the ball a total of 43 times in 2012 and that includes scrambles. So .8 difference in scoring is because Franks can run better? If anything it proves he got nearly the same production from a totally different skill set player

[BrunswickDawg]

2012 was the only full year of Tyler Russell. We avg'd 25.3 ppg in conf. Franks is a pass first guy at Florida, and Mullen is avg 26.1 ppg in conf

I wasn't comparing the offensive production, I was talking about the difference in what coaches can and can't do when they don't have the personnel to fit their system. We saw with our own eyes with Mullen. We are seeing it with Joe now. Did you ever feel like Dan was entirely comfortable running Russell out there at QB? I'd say he doesn't look comfortable running Franks out there now - since he benched him 2 weeks ago.
Similarly, Joe is obviously not comfortable with Fitz and what our stock of QBs can do.

[Tbonewannabe]

Russell ran the ball a total of 43 times in 2012 and that includes scrambles. So .8 difference in scoring is because Franks can run better? If anything it proves he got nearly the same production from a totally different skill set player

In 2012, we lucked into playing teams that pretty much all had losing records to inflate our record to 7 wins prior to Bama. The only win after that was to the 4-7 Arkansas team. 2012 is a good comparison to this year except we beat teams that will have winning records.

Similar to Mullen, Moorhead can't seem to win against good teams without his style QB.

[Really Clark?]

In 2012, we lucked into playing teams that pretty much all had losing records to inflate our record to 7 wins prior to Bama. The only win after that was to the 4-7 Arkansas team. 2012 is a good comparison to this year except we beat teams that will have winning records.

Similar to Mullen, Moorhead can't seem to win against good teams without his style QB.

Uh...where were we discussing records? You were taking stats and offensive numbers with QB’s that didn’t fit Dan and stated that Franks better running made a huge difference because Dan ran Russell. He didn’t run him, other than the bare min to keep defenses honest to the zone read. Perk had a 1,000 yards that year. In conference games, there is a .8 point difference in scoring with Russell in 2012 vs Franks this year

[Tbonewannabe]

Uh...where were we discussing records? You were taking stats and offensive numbers with QB’s that didn’t fit Dan and stated that Franks better running made a huge difference because Dan ran Russell. He didn’t run him, other than the bare min to keep defenses honest to the zone read. Perk had a 1,000 yards that year. In conference games, there is a .8 point difference in scoring with Russell in 2012 vs Franks this year

And Dan ran an offense that he didn't particularly like with Tyler at QB. He wants to run his QB and Russell didn't have to because we played shit teams with shit defense that allowed him to run his offense differently. Once he got to teams with winning records, the offense went into the shitter.

I don't know what offense you have been watching but Dan Mullen will run his QB if he has the choice. It is what makes his offense go.

Russell didn't play a SEC team with a winning record until Bama, then A&M, LSU, Ark had a losing record, the UM.

We scored 7, 13,17, 45 (Ark with 4 wins), 24. We lost every one of those games with the exception of Ark. Tyler was a great QB and that team had a good bit of NFL talent but it still struggled especially on the road in the SEC.

[Prediction? Pain.]

And ours? UCLA lost 4 nfl players with 2 in the top 15 picks

Back from the seminar. I'll try to take a more in-depth look at this later with some whisky as my copilot, but here's the surprising answer to your question:

MSU's 2017 Offensive S&P+ ranking: 63rd

MSU's Offensive S&P+ ranking after 10 games this year: 62nd

To be continued . . . .

[BrunswickDawg]

Back from the seminar. I'll try to take a more in-depth look at this later with some whisky as my copilot, but here's the surprising answer to your question:

MSU's 2017 Offensive S&P+ ranking: 63rd

MSU's Offensive S&P+ ranking after 10 games this year: 62nd

To be continued . . . .

Silly fool, don't you know ppg in conference games is the only stat that matters.***

[Really Clark?]

And Dan ran an offense that he didn't particularly like with Tyler at QB. He wants to run his QB and Russell didn't have to because we played shit teams with shit defense that allowed him to run his offense differently. Once he got to teams with winning records, the offense went into the shitter.

I don't know what offense you have been watching but Dan Mullen will run his QB if he has the choice. It is what makes his offense go.

Russell didn't play a SEC team with a winning record until Bama, then A&M, LSU, Ark had a losing record, the UM.

We scored 7, 13,17, 45 (Ark with 4 wins), 24. We lost every one of those games with the exception of Ark. Tyler was a great QB and that team had a good bit of NFL talent but it still struggled especially on the road in the SEC.

I watched every bit of 2012 and he did not run Russell. But for argument sake, Tyler fit Mullen’s offense as bad as Fitz fits Moorehead’s (I actually think Fitz fits a little better because Moorehead also has zone reads and QB runs in his playbook). And even with that we averaged 25.3 points in conference in 2012 and 14.3 vs ranked teams. 11.2 and 4 for this season. Any way you cut it, that is a lot worse than this year. 2012 we played Bama and LSU on the road as well.

[msstate7]

Back from the seminar. I'll try to take a more in-depth look at this later with some whisky as my copilot, but here's the surprising answer to your question:

MSU's 2017 Offensive S&P+ ranking: 63rd

MSU's Offensive S&P+ ranking after 10 games this year: 62nd

To be continued . . . .

Well, I'm not gonna lie, this is surprising. There's no one on this board I respect more on stats and their interpretation than you. I'm very interested in the rest of this, and I'm feeling better about Moorhead just with this post

[Prediction? Pain.]

Well, I'm not gonna lie, this is surprising. There's no one on this board I respect more on stats and their interpretation than you. I'm very interested in the rest of this, and I'm feeling better about Moorhead just with this post

Whisky in hand -- Dickel Single Barrel; ~ 10 years old, 105 proof; a lot more intense than last year's batch of the stuff; still growing on me, but I think I like it -- let's see what's what here.

One thing to keep in mind is that we're comparing a full season's work from 2017 -- four non-cons, eight SEC games, and a non-con bowl game -- with an incomplete season. So there's some inherent limitations to this.

Another factor to remember is just who it is that we've yet to play and how those games will likely impact our offensive numbers. Arkansas' defense is 76th in S&P+ and U. Miss.'s is 110th. There's no way to know how good our bowl opponent's defense will be, but if we're as lucky as we were last year -- Louisville's defense was 84th -- it'll be in the same ballpark as our last two SEC opponents. So it'll be surprising if our offensive profile doesn't improve over those last three games.

But given those caveats, back to this year vs. last year. It looks like the S&P+ rankings for the past two years' offenses are essentially the same overall -- 63rd and 62nd. I was surprised by that, too. I don't remember us being world beaters last year, but some of the low points this year have been pretty bad.

So here is how that's happened. Last year, we were a very efficient team. 20th in success rate, 18th in rushing S&P+, and, surprise surprise, 37th in passing S&P+. We weren't great on passing downs, though, (62nd) and weren't that explosive (61st in the stat that measures that).

Well, this year, we're obviously not as efficient passing the ball (88th) and, sadly enough, we're not even quite as explosive (83rd). But not only are we a little more efficient overall -- 19th success rate -- our run game went from good to elite -- we're now 3rd nationally. Combine that with being more efficient on passing downs than last year (38th), and you've got a similar overall profile.

Just to be sure that this wasn't an anomaly, I checked the FEI ratings (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff), too. Whereas S&P+ rates efficiency based upon the success (and degree of success) of every single play in a season, FEI rates efficiency based upon the success of each drive in a season (which is measured by the "value" generated by drives relative to points, yards, and field position and then adjusted for strength of opposing defenses). (The FEI ratings also don't count games with FCS teams, so that often removes outlier games from the mix.)

The FEI rankings liked our 2017 offense more than the S&P+ rankings -- 37th nationally.

Well, at this point in the season this year, it likes our current offense just as much -- 31st nationally.

I'm less familiar with the FEI's component parts, so I won't go into that. But the fact that it too thinks just as highly of our offense this year as last year tells me that it's not just an anomaly from the S&P formula.

Quick note or two about points-per-game: (1) It's hard to compare PPG in different years because conference and national scoring fluctuates. So what may have been a crap-ton of points eight or nine years ago may be only mediocre now. If you want to go that route anyway, at least try to look at a team's rank in its conference instead of its raw point total. (2) We're sucking at scoring against good defenses. Bad. And it's lame. (3) I'm not sure it's time to bandy about Croom references just yet. Here are Croom's teams' national scoring ranks out of between 117 and 120 FBS teams for each of his five seasons: 112th, 117th, 100th, 95th, and 116th. That's inconceivably bad, y'all. I mean, I don't even know what to do with that. (4) Right now we're 89th in PPG. Again, lame sauce. Not getting it done against good defenses. And it's especially lame that we're doing it with such a great defense of our own. Though that reminds me of something . . . . (5) Our national PPG rank in 1999, the season with our most wins in Jackie's tenure? 85th (http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/archive/fbs/1999team.pdf).

My takeaway from all this mumbo jumbo is the same as everyone else's to a large extent. The transition in the passing offense has been rough, and poor execution, whether from penalties or drops or misreads or boneheaded route-running, has been a killer at inopportune times against quality defenses. And there's nothing anyone can say to make me happy about that. But maybe after nine years in a single offensive system with 80 or so dudes recruited and developed to run that system and a gutsy but unheralded fifth-year triple-option QB running the show, it makes a little sense. As I've said elsewhere, maybe if we think about this team more like the 2010 team -- loaded, well-coached D and a run-first, passing-impaired offense trying to run a new (or newish) system with a tough-as-nails, low-three-star QB -- we'll all be able to see both the forest and the trees without breaking our television sets.

Or maybe not. Whisky glass is empty, so I'm losing my focus.

On that note, man, I just reacquainted myself with the Allman Brothers's Ludlow Garage show from 1970. Dude, the renditions of "Dreams" and "Statesboro Blues" on that album are phenomenal.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGKOdyjhER0


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9E6wYAUsww

Evening, y'all.

[Commercecomet24]

Pain, that was some serious work there! Thanks for bringing that! Maybe they'll help some folks understand(although I doubt it). Makes a lot more sense when it's broken down that way.

Oh great choice of music!

[msstate7]

Great research, pain. Thanks.

Do the advanced metrics you use break down conference play? Are we getting enough of a boost from just destroying OOC to cover up for in conf?

[Tbonewannabe]

Great research, pain. Thanks.

Do the advanced metrics you use break down conference play? Are we getting enough of a boost from just destroying OOC to cover up for in conf?

Well it took out Stephen F Austin. So it would have took into account KSU - #2 defense in the Big 12 on the road and La Tech (might win 9 games and played LSU tough), and Louisiana Lafayette (weak team but still 5-5).

Also everyone else is getting those same boosts. Maybe A&M who played Clemson and Auburn who played Washington could have a complaint but everyone else is pretty equal.

If you look at only conference stats then other than not playing UGA, we have played the toughest defenses in the conference and mostly on the Road. It probably gives us a bump due to that.

[Tbonewannabe]

Whisky in hand -- Dickel Single Barrel; ~ 10 years old, 105 proof; a lot more intense than last year's batch of the stuff; still growing on me, but I think I like it -- let's see what's what here.

One thing to keep in mind is that we're comparing a full season's work from 2017 -- four non-cons, eight SEC games, and a non-con bowl game -- with an incomplete season. So there's some inherent limitations to this.

Another factor to remember is just who it is that we've yet to play and how those games will likely impact our offensive numbers. Arkansas' defense is 76th in S&P+ and U. Miss.'s is 110th. There's no way to know how good our bowl opponent's defense will be, but if we're as lucky as we were last year -- Louisville's defense was 84th -- it'll be in the same ballpark as our last two SEC opponents. So it'll be surprising if our offensive profile doesn't improve over those last three games.

But given those caveats, back to this year vs. last year. It looks like the S&P+ rankings for the past two years' offenses are essentially the same overall -- 63rd and 62nd. I was surprised by that, too. I don't remember us being world beaters last year, but some of the low points this year have been pretty bad.

So here is how that's happened. Last year, we were a very efficient team. 20th in success rate, 18th in rushing S&P+, and, surprise surprise, 37th in passing S&P+. We weren't great on passing downs, though, (62nd) and weren't that explosive (61st in the stat that measures that).

Well, this year, we're obviously not as efficient passing the ball (88th) and, sadly enough, we're not even quite as explosive (83rd). But not only are we a little more efficient overall -- 19th success rate -- our run game went from good to elite -- we're now 3rd nationally. Combine that with being more efficient on passing downs than last year (38th), and you've got a similar overall profile.

Just to be sure that this wasn't an anomaly, I checked the FEI ratings (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff), too. Whereas S&P+ rates efficiency based upon the success (and degree of success) of every single play in a season, FEI rates efficiency based upon the success of each drive in a season (which is measured by the "value" generated by drives relative to points, yards, and field position and then adjusted for strength of opposing defenses). (The FEI ratings also don't count games with FCS teams, so that often removes outlier games from the mix.)

The FEI rankings liked our 2017 offense more than the S&P+ rankings -- 37th nationally.

Well, at this point in the season this year, it likes our current offense just as much -- 31st nationally.

I'm less familiar with the FEI's component parts, so I won't go into that. But the fact that it too thinks just as highly of our offense this year as last year tells me that it's not just an anomaly from the S&P formula.

Quick note or two about points-per-game: (1) It's hard to compare PPG in different years because conference and national scoring fluctuates. So what may have been a crap-ton of points eight or nine years ago may be only mediocre now. If you want to go that route anyway, at least try to look at a team's rank in its conference instead of its raw point total. (2) We're sucking at scoring against good defenses. Bad. And it's lame. (3) I'm not sure it's time to bandy about Croom references just yet. Here are Croom's teams' national scoring ranks out of between 117 and 120 FBS teams for each of his five seasons: 112th, 117th, 100th, 95th, and 116th. That's inconceivably bad, y'all. I mean, I don't even know what to do with that. (4) Right now we're 89th in PPG. Again, lame sauce. Not getting it done against good defenses. And it's especially lame that we're doing it with such a great defense of our own. Though that reminds me of something . . . . (5) Our national PPG rank in 1999, the season with our most wins in Jackie's tenure? 85th (http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/archive/fbs/1999team.pdf).

My takeaway from all this mumbo jumbo is the same as everyone else's to a large extent. The transition in the passing offense has been rough, and poor execution, whether from penalties or drops or misreads or boneheaded route-running, has been a killer at inopportune times against quality defenses. And there's nothing anyone can say to make me happy about that. But maybe after nine years in a single offensive system with 80 or so dudes recruited and developed to run that system and a gutsy but unheralded fifth-year triple-option QB running the show, it makes a little sense. As I've said elsewhere, maybe if we think about this team more like the 2010 team -- loaded, well-coached D and a run-first, passing-impaired offense trying to run a new (or newish) system with a tough-as-nails, low-three-star QB -- we'll all be able to see both the forest and the trees without breaking our television sets.

Or maybe not. Whisky glass is empty, so I'm losing my focus.

On that note, man, I just reacquainted myself with the Allman Brothers's Ludlow Garage show from 1970. Dude, the renditions of "Dreams" and "Statesboro Blues" on that album are phenomenal.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGKOdyjhER0


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9E6wYAUsww

Evening, y'all.

Great job.

[msstate7]

Well it took out Stephen F Austin. So it would have took into account KSU - #2 defense in the Big 12 on the road and La Tech (might win 9 games and played LSU tough), and Louisiana Lafayette (weak team but still 5-5).

Also everyone else is getting those same boosts. Maybe A&M who played Clemson and Auburn who played Washington could have a complaint but everyone else is pretty equal.

If you look at only conference stats then other than not playing UGA, we have played the toughest defenses in the conference and mostly on the Road. It probably gives us a bump due to that.

We don't play ourselves. Teams playing us have faced an elite defense we haven't

[BrunswickDawg]

Great stuff Pain - as usual. And a bonus for the Brothers.

Looking at our running numbers, we are sitting a little over 2,000 yards in production from our QB position and RB position. That's nothing to sneeze at and should improve over the last 3. Still good for 3rd in the SEC. And yes 7 , I know we are way off in conference only games. But, if we perform the next 2 weeks on the ground like we have against weaker defenses and crack 300-350 yards on the ground, we would be 3rd or 4th in the league in that area vs. conference - and while that is 40-60 yards less a game - to Pain's point it ranks us right where we were last season.

An interesting side note- that also speaks to some of what Pain posted - Rushing Yards in Conference games are down across the board this season. UGA will lead the SEC - with 33 yards a game less then what Bama led the league with last year. 2017, 4 teams averaged 228+ ypg in conference. This year, only UGA will crack that, and #2 UF isn't even close to it at 208 ypg.

I wonder why? Maybe its because rushing defenses have been stronger this season - with 4 teams A&M, Bama, MSU, UGA - being statistically as good or better than the top 2 last year.

[dawgday166]

That was some good stuff Pain. It's making me feel a little more hopeful about Joe. I'm not moved into any range of optimistic just yet tho.

I probably was like everyone else when Moorhead said "What's your ring size?" and "Brush off your mantle for the Heisman". Joe has said he has never lacked confidence but, that might've been more arrogant than confident. And I really thought he might could help Fitz get a Heisman, cause I thought Fitz was and still think he probably is as good or better than McSorley.

Combine that with the backpeddling I'm hearing now in press conferences and ... don't know but not a fan of it. He needs to own it a little more IMO.

Our backend D is a bunch of 3* with exception of Peters, Leo, and Willie. Then we plug 3* in to replace 3* that are hurt and go play one of the best overall offenses in last 20 years. That hasn't kept Shoop and company from making them maybe the best overall secondary I've ever seen at MSU. They coached them up I'd say. Shoop don't say much and when he do it's "We got some things we need to get better at".

[RezDog7]

It's funny how we all expected to win certain games this year like KY, FL and LSU. Don't you think their fans have us as an expected win every year too? Name me one school on our SEC schedule that doesn't look at MSU every year as a win. Like I've said several times; we're a dropped touchdown pass from probably not even having this conversation.

Now, if Moorhead loses to Arkansas or OM, all bets are off.

[Really Clark?]

Good stuff Pain as always. Appreciate you digging deeper on that. There are some definite strange numbers to be sure and like you said the lows are very bad, if it happened once or twice, ok not want we want to see but it happens. 40% of your games is very concerning but also baffling that the highs actually appear better to offset the lows. Odd but great stuff

[Tbonewannabe]

Good stuff Pain as always. Appreciate you digging deeper on that. There are some definite strange numbers to be sure and like you said the lows are very bad, if it happened once or twice, ok not want we want to see but it happens. 40% of your games is very concerning but also baffling that the highs actually appear better to offset the lows. Odd but great stuff

You have to also take into account, everyone said it normally took 4 or 5 games to actually start clicking in Joe's offense. That probably doesn't take into consideration your QB not having live reps to develop that comfort with the offense. If you say we ran into UK and UF during that time then the numbers look better.

What Pain's numbers don't show is we went from a Running Spread to a Passing type spread offense. Fitz wasn't great with his accuracy anyway so you had to expect bumps in the road. I think most people are unhappy from a couple of things.

We beat the shit out of UK and LSU at home. This year we got the shit beat out of us and only because our defense improved so much did the score not look similar. If anyone thinks we just have more talent than LSU then you haven't ever followed recruiting. LSU recruits on an entirely different level than us. We also caught LSU early last year before they figured some things out. It also doesn't help when your QB has the worst game I might have ever seen a MSU QB have which is saying something who watched the Croom years. Fitz bounced back but that game was complete shit.

UK is just having their best year in my lifetime along with having a very senior team. We should have probably beaten them and if Mullen was here then he might have due to consistency in offense. It is also possible we still lose that game if Mullen's team has 160 yards of penalties.

Bama last year was the exception not the rule. Other than 2014 which is probably our best offensive team in MSU history, we haven't put up more than 7-10 points on Bama in Tuscaloosa. We will see if Bama's defense finally figured it out but they absolutely dominated LSU in Death Valley. I am not sure why anyone would expect us in Joe's first year to surpass every game but 1 in Mullen's career in Tuscaloosa.

Bottom line, Joe pumped everyone up with talks of Heismans and Championships. Dan did the same thing but coming after Croom, we were just excited to have some form of offense. We all believed Joe so it is a swift kick to the Nutts when the offense has seemed to sputter against good defenses. You see glimpses like against Auburn and A&M but it hasn't been consistent.