BulldogBear
10-17-2013, 01:59 PM
Okay, I know this may burst a few bubbles but I finally got some time today to weigh in on this. This an area I love to speculate on (expansion). I've been paying close attention to the reasons, motivations, biases, and hangups, and culture about this since the mid 90s. I am of the opinion that 64 is as far as it will go and there is a slim to none chance 20 each for 80. Here's why:
72 might work with 4 conferences of 18, with 2 divisions of 9. But that's not gonna happen. Why? The Big 4 are gonna want quads, especially if they seperate from NCAA and don't need it's approval. There will be a four school conference playoff not just a championship game. So, you're thinking 20 team conferences with four divisions of 5 each. I have even broken down how schedule would work and things like that. But I gave up because it ain't gonna happen. Why? There's something that outwieghs any "first four out" problem. That problem is... who you have to include. I call this the "western problem."
Now unless the Big 4 are gonna give up their right to dictate and negotiate their own $$$ terms and who is in their conference, this is going to kill the 80 school system idea pretty quickly. I can't see the big 4 agreeing to share their $$$ or be divied up by the NCAA, or some future created governing body, like an NFL type league with artificial geographical and play balance. Right now, including the Irish, there are 65 "BCS" schools. The problem is finding 15 more. Keep in mind all that goes into the desire for a conference to expand: TV Market, on-field success, attendance, culture, committment to athletics (especially football AND basketball) and the facilities for the playing thereof, and so on and so forth.
I think most can agree that 3 of the Big 4 will be the SEC, B1G, and Pac 12(16){20}. The Big 12 or ACC will absorbed by the other and the aforementioned 3 conferences. There's a small chance it could be the Big 12 that survives which would also make for a slim of chance of going to 80 schools. But the Big 12 is a debutante ball and in all likelyhood it is the ACC that will survive and that will leave ZERO chance of expanding to 80. Finding 15 affects all regions but nowhere is the problem better illustrated than out west. So, let me illustrate using BYU, San Diego State, Cal State-Fresno, and Boise State as an example. When searching for 15 likely schools that "fit," most lists would include the first 3 and possibly Boise State as well.
For some common reasons and some unique to each, those schools have about as much chance of garnering an invite from the Pacific (insert #) Conference as Grovebear girl has of getting a marriage proposal from Dr. James Dobson. Those reasons are worthy of an article/post/thread unto themselves, so for now, I'll move on. So, who invites SDSU, CSF, BYU, and Boise? The SEC? B1G? ACC? Nope. ZERO chance of that. If the Big 12 survives as the 4th conference this is where your slight chance of fitting in 15 more to get to 80 comes in. But, if those 3-4 are left out, just who do you replace them with for our Left Coast Conference? UNM, Colorado State, and 6 former Big 12ers? Okay, so who joins the ACC, B1G, SEC since our gang of 15 is down by 4 because there is simply nowhere for Boise, Fresno, BYU, and the Aztecs to go? ...USM? Beast Carolina? Louisiana Tech? Rice? ...or (E) none of the above? Four 20 school conferences is not going to happen. The idea sounds good on paper if there were 80 worthy candidates once you get past all the factors that go into expansion, but there just aren't 80 positioned correctly geographically, financially, culturally, and so on ad nauseum to make a nice cookie cutter 80 school confederetion of Big 4 "BCS" conferences.
IN ALL LIKELYHOOD, what really will happen is that the Big 12 or ACC will dissolve as we can all agree and 1 school will be left out. If the Big 12 survives then that school will probably be Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville or Wake Forest depending on who the B1G takes. But what will probably happen is that the ACC will survive and TCU, Baylor, or Iowa State will be left out, depending on where Texas goes. Iowa State is the least likely because they are a large state institution that is an AAU member and will present a new TV market for the conference which takes them. But unlike Kansas State, unless Iowa State is B1G candidate then they not have an inconference "ally," Iowa in the case of B1G interest, nor a highly sought after expansion candidate for an ally as Kansas will be for K-State. There may be political pressure in Iowa to make sure the Cyclone nation is not left out but Iowa supporters and alumni in state government may have little affect on the matter unless Iowa State has legit interest from the B1G. Kansas and Kansas State, to contrast, are a different animal. They are different schools...I guess. They actually have the same board of regents. They would be content to be in seperate Big 4 conferences if need be but Kansas WILL be one of the expansion schools for one of the Big 4. With only one "leftover" it's a cinch it won't be Kansas. So, KU has the conch. The board of regents will never allow K-State to be left behind to fade into collegiate athletic irrelevance. So, KU will be able to take K-State with it OR at least hold out until K-State has a slot. Or even negotiate to make sure they do, even in another conference (because KU itself is prime candidate as Iowa is not because it is already a B1G member and holds no power over the expansion desires of other conferences). Iowa State does not have such an ally. But, that rant went on for a while without need because it will probably be TCU or Baylor left out and hey, it may depend more on who is the most football relevant at the time. TCU is in DFW market but in Texas that doesn't mean much as any conference with UT and/or TAMU doesn't "need" TCU for exposure in DFW and TCU couldn't touch the amount either of those could bring anyway.
So, I'm tired of typing. I believe there's about a 99.99999999% chance you're gonna see big 4 conferences of 16 each with TCU or Baylor packed off to the AAC or MWC.
72 might work with 4 conferences of 18, with 2 divisions of 9. But that's not gonna happen. Why? The Big 4 are gonna want quads, especially if they seperate from NCAA and don't need it's approval. There will be a four school conference playoff not just a championship game. So, you're thinking 20 team conferences with four divisions of 5 each. I have even broken down how schedule would work and things like that. But I gave up because it ain't gonna happen. Why? There's something that outwieghs any "first four out" problem. That problem is... who you have to include. I call this the "western problem."
Now unless the Big 4 are gonna give up their right to dictate and negotiate their own $$$ terms and who is in their conference, this is going to kill the 80 school system idea pretty quickly. I can't see the big 4 agreeing to share their $$$ or be divied up by the NCAA, or some future created governing body, like an NFL type league with artificial geographical and play balance. Right now, including the Irish, there are 65 "BCS" schools. The problem is finding 15 more. Keep in mind all that goes into the desire for a conference to expand: TV Market, on-field success, attendance, culture, committment to athletics (especially football AND basketball) and the facilities for the playing thereof, and so on and so forth.
I think most can agree that 3 of the Big 4 will be the SEC, B1G, and Pac 12(16){20}. The Big 12 or ACC will absorbed by the other and the aforementioned 3 conferences. There's a small chance it could be the Big 12 that survives which would also make for a slim of chance of going to 80 schools. But the Big 12 is a debutante ball and in all likelyhood it is the ACC that will survive and that will leave ZERO chance of expanding to 80. Finding 15 affects all regions but nowhere is the problem better illustrated than out west. So, let me illustrate using BYU, San Diego State, Cal State-Fresno, and Boise State as an example. When searching for 15 likely schools that "fit," most lists would include the first 3 and possibly Boise State as well.
For some common reasons and some unique to each, those schools have about as much chance of garnering an invite from the Pacific (insert #) Conference as Grovebear girl has of getting a marriage proposal from Dr. James Dobson. Those reasons are worthy of an article/post/thread unto themselves, so for now, I'll move on. So, who invites SDSU, CSF, BYU, and Boise? The SEC? B1G? ACC? Nope. ZERO chance of that. If the Big 12 survives as the 4th conference this is where your slight chance of fitting in 15 more to get to 80 comes in. But, if those 3-4 are left out, just who do you replace them with for our Left Coast Conference? UNM, Colorado State, and 6 former Big 12ers? Okay, so who joins the ACC, B1G, SEC since our gang of 15 is down by 4 because there is simply nowhere for Boise, Fresno, BYU, and the Aztecs to go? ...USM? Beast Carolina? Louisiana Tech? Rice? ...or (E) none of the above? Four 20 school conferences is not going to happen. The idea sounds good on paper if there were 80 worthy candidates once you get past all the factors that go into expansion, but there just aren't 80 positioned correctly geographically, financially, culturally, and so on ad nauseum to make a nice cookie cutter 80 school confederetion of Big 4 "BCS" conferences.
IN ALL LIKELYHOOD, what really will happen is that the Big 12 or ACC will dissolve as we can all agree and 1 school will be left out. If the Big 12 survives then that school will probably be Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville or Wake Forest depending on who the B1G takes. But what will probably happen is that the ACC will survive and TCU, Baylor, or Iowa State will be left out, depending on where Texas goes. Iowa State is the least likely because they are a large state institution that is an AAU member and will present a new TV market for the conference which takes them. But unlike Kansas State, unless Iowa State is B1G candidate then they not have an inconference "ally," Iowa in the case of B1G interest, nor a highly sought after expansion candidate for an ally as Kansas will be for K-State. There may be political pressure in Iowa to make sure the Cyclone nation is not left out but Iowa supporters and alumni in state government may have little affect on the matter unless Iowa State has legit interest from the B1G. Kansas and Kansas State, to contrast, are a different animal. They are different schools...I guess. They actually have the same board of regents. They would be content to be in seperate Big 4 conferences if need be but Kansas WILL be one of the expansion schools for one of the Big 4. With only one "leftover" it's a cinch it won't be Kansas. So, KU has the conch. The board of regents will never allow K-State to be left behind to fade into collegiate athletic irrelevance. So, KU will be able to take K-State with it OR at least hold out until K-State has a slot. Or even negotiate to make sure they do, even in another conference (because KU itself is prime candidate as Iowa is not because it is already a B1G member and holds no power over the expansion desires of other conferences). Iowa State does not have such an ally. But, that rant went on for a while without need because it will probably be TCU or Baylor left out and hey, it may depend more on who is the most football relevant at the time. TCU is in DFW market but in Texas that doesn't mean much as any conference with UT and/or TAMU doesn't "need" TCU for exposure in DFW and TCU couldn't touch the amount either of those could bring anyway.
So, I'm tired of typing. I believe there's about a 99.99999999% chance you're gonna see big 4 conferences of 16 each with TCU or Baylor packed off to the AAC or MWC.