Early Monday weather heads up

[starkvegasdawg]

Models starting to come into agreement on significant severe weather event Monday and Tuesday. Still some details to work out, but pattern is potentially....potentially...setting up for an outbreak including strong long track tornadoes.

[Commercecomet24]

Models starting to come into agreement on significant severe weather event Monday and Tuesday. Still some details to work out, but pattern is potentially....potentially...setting up for an outbreak including strong long track tornadoes.

I'm headed to Knoxville Monday what will it be looking like on the drive from jones county? Thanks for all your info

[MetEdDawg]

Go read a few of the Forecast Discussions from some of the area NWS offices. They don't sound very good. Bham one this morning was particularly worrisome.

Whenever you see the SPC put out a 30% risk area on Day 4 and a 15% on Day 5, that's not a good sign. MS needs to watch out on this one. Models have synced up and they all say not good things.

One of the analogs that was mentioned as a comparison was an outbreak in November 1992. Go look that up. Very very bad if that comes anywhere close to true.

[starkvegasdawg]

I just read the one from Birmingham. Wow is all I can say. Time to charge up the gear and stock up on the caffeine.

[confucius say]

I know it's a few days off, but are we thinking Monday night or day or what?

[starkvegasdawg]

I know it's a few days off, but are we thinking Monday night or day or what?

Monday night LA and MS. Tuesday for AL. As it stands now.

[TUSK]

I just read the one from Birmingham. Wow is all I can say. Time to charge up the gear and stock up on the caffeine.

Why do you cats chase those 'nadars?

All ya gotta do is come sit in the trailerpark with me and you'll see all ya want...

note: If you do come, please bring a HazMat suit and respirator as I am behind on production...

[RocketDawg]

I just read the one from Birmingham. Wow is all I can say. Time to charge up the gear and stock up on the caffeine.

They're saying for the northern part of their forecast area, which is south of Cullman. At this time, Huntsville doesn't seem to be quite as excited about the potential, but whatever happens will be Tuesday in Alabama, which election day just about everywhere. Could have a significant impact on turnout. Mississippi would likely be late Monday/Monday night ... the dreaded nighttime tornadoes.

[MetEdDawg]

I'm here in Metro Bham and we are getting pretty concerned. The wording would put me directly in it. MS will get a nasty dose Monday but we will have to see what happens Tuesday here.

Tomorrow would make it 72 hours out. Can usually get a better determination within 3 days.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

How bad are we talking ?

[starkvegasdawg]

How bad are we talking ?

Still too early to know for sure, but some of the info coming in is looking like it could be bad.

[Lord McBuckethead]

50-50. It may rain. It may not.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Nailed it.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is what Birmingham NWS has to say:

Taken at face value, the ECMWF shows
semi-discrete supercells capable of producing long-track,
significant tornadoes across the northern half of our forecast
area on Tuesday morning. The HWO will be updated to include a
moderate confidence threat for tornadoes and damaging winds across
the entire forecast area. With this threat still around 96 hours
out and models subject to change, we will refrain from going all
in on the potential for a tornado outbreak.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

Chance for a potentially dangerous situation?

[starkvegasdawg]

Chance for a potentially dangerous situation?

Possible, if everything lined up perfectly.

[MetEdDawg]

Here is what Birmingham NWS has to say:

Taken at face value, the ECMWF shows
semi-discrete supercells capable of producing long-track,
significant tornadoes across the northern half of our forecast
area on Tuesday morning. The HWO will be updated to include a
moderate confidence threat for tornadoes and damaging winds across
the entire forecast area. With this threat still around 96 hours
out and models subject to change, we will refrain from going all
in on the potential for a tornado outbreak.

I'll be interested to see the morning 0 and 12Z runs tomorrow to see if everything lines up. That will put us within 3 days of the event here in Alabama. Also interested to see how bullish the SPC is on Day 3 tomorrow morning. I'll be shocked if they don't have at least an enhanced risk. But if they go ahead and put out a moderate risk, look out.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'll be interested to see the morning 0 and 12Z runs tomorrow to see if everything lines up. That will put us within 3 days of the event here in Alabama. Also interested to see how bullish the SPC is on Day 3 tomorrow morning. I'll be shocked if they don't have at least an enhanced risk. But if they go ahead and put out a moderate risk, look out.

I expect this to end up at a mod risk, but if they do it tomorrow then I'm laying bets on whether it ends up high. Right now I'm thinking it stays mod but is a multi day mod risk going into Tuesday.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

I expect this to end up at a mod risk, but if they do it tomorrow then I'm laying bets on whether it ends up high. Right now I'm thinking it stays mod but is a multi day mod risk going into Tuesday.

Is this as high risk as the day of the Tuscaloosa tornado?

[MetEdDawg]

I expect this to end up at a mod risk, but if they do it tomorrow then I'm laying bets on whether it ends up high. Right now I'm thinking it stays mod but is a multi day mod risk going into Tuesday.

If I remember correctly, SPC policy in the past has been that they don't issue high risks on their 3 day. So if they go moderate on Day 3 that will be very significant because that's as high as they will go that many days out.

I would right now expect moderate as well, but like I said earlier, if they truly believe the computers putting out an analog of November 1992, they will eventually make this a high risk.

[starkvegasdawg]

If I remember correctly, SPC policy in the past has been that they don't issue high risks on their 3 day. So if they go moderate on Day 3 that will be very significant because that's as high as they will go that many days out.

I would right now expect moderate as well, but like I said earlier, if they truly believe the computers putting out an analog of November 1992, they will eventually make this a high risk.

Yeah, they won't do a high on day 3, but if they do a mod tomorrow then it wouldn't surprise me to see it end up a high.

[RocketDawg]

I'll be interested to see the morning 0 and 12Z runs tomorrow to see if everything lines up. That will put us within 3 days of the event here in Alabama. Also interested to see how bullish the SPC is on Day 3 tomorrow morning. I'll be shocked if they don't have at least an enhanced risk. But if they go ahead and put out a moderate risk, look out.

Their quote is "moderate confidence threat for tornadoes". Is that the same as Moderate Risk? Or are they just saying they are moderately confident that we will have tornadoes? There seems to be a subtle difference.

[starkvegasdawg]

Their quote is "moderate confidence threat for tornadoes". Is that the same as Moderate Risk? Or are they just saying they are moderately confident that we will have tornadoes? There seems to be a subtle difference.

Most NWS offices follow spc guidelines in their graphics, but this is not them saying a mod risk. However, the fact the spc has already issued an enhanced risk and the way things are coming together I would not be at all surprised if it ends up a mod risk before the event gets here.

[MetEdDawg]

Their quote is "moderate confidence threat for tornadoes". Is that the same as Moderate Risk? Or are they just saying they are moderately confident that we will have tornadoes? There seems to be a subtle difference.

In the graphics that the NWS puts out, I know the Bham NWS has adopted the same severe measurement system the SPC uses. It's about time because they weren't always the same. Now the NWS relays what the SPC says inntheir graphics.

As far as forecast discussion terminology, moderate confidence doesn't necessarily mean moderate risk. But I'm assuming that will happen if this continues like it has been.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC is now officially on record that they are considering a mod risk for Monday. Also saying it may start late Monday afternoon and go through the night. If you live in north MS or west TN you will need to stay weather aware Monday afternoon and night. All indications is this won't be a storm to take lightly if we can get good moisture return and it appears we will.

[Liverpooldawg]

SPC is now officially on record that they are considering a mod risk for Monday. Also saying it may start late Monday afternoon and go through the night. If you live in north MS or west TN you will need to stay weather aware Monday afternoon and night. All indications is this won't be a storm to take lightly if we can get good moisture return and it appears we will.

As a non-storm chaser and someone who has had people he knew and loved "affected" by a really bad tornado hopefully we don't get a "good" moisture return, whatever that is. If it means more tornadoes, perhaps you need to change that "good" to a "bad".

[starkvegasdawg]

As a non-storm chaser and someone who has had people he knew and loved "affected" by a really bad tornado hopefully we don't get a "good" moisture return, whatever that is. If it means more tornadoes, perhaps you need to change that "good" to a "bad".

Moisture return is simply the amount of moisture in the atmosphere which is the fuel the storms use to feed on. If we get dew points up around 65 then that should be sufficient. As of last check Starkville's current dew point is 51 which is relatively dry air.

I know if sounds like I'm rooting for a high end severe weather outbreak, and to be honest...a part of me is. I love seeing and watching severe weather. That said, my heart breaks when I see peoples property destroyed and injuries and death. I love seeing tornadoes but I wish every one was out in open fields affecting nobody. But since that's never the case that is why I chase. I hope that the information I relay to the NWS or local media partner will be what prompts someone to take shelter and that saves their life.

[Liverpooldawg]

Moisture return is simply the amount of moisture in the atmosphere which is the fuel the storms use to feed on. If we get dew points up around 65 then that should be sufficient. As of last check Starkville's current dew point is 51 which is relatively dry air.

I know if sounds like I'm rooting for a high end severe weather outbreak, and to be honest...a part of me is. I love seeing and watching severe weather. That said, my heart breaks when I see peoples property destroyed and injuries and death. I love seeing tornadoes but I wish every one was out in open fields affecting nobody. But since that's never the case that is why I chase. I hope that the information I relay to the NWS or local media partner will be what prompts someone to take shelter and that saves their life.

I get that, a part of me was like that, once. No longer.

[Cooterpoot]

Going to be worse in N. MS

[HaggardDawg]

Any updates?

[MetEdDawg]

Any updates?

Maintaining an enhanced risk for now. Update will come out later tonight. They mention possibly having to go with a moderate risk in later updates depending on how model runs go today.

[Activated Alpha]

Anything for Brandon? I work the afternoon shift so my wife will be home alone with the toddler and infant at nights. We were awakened at 0400 Thursday morning by the tornado here. Woke up just in time to turn it to the news to see our street in the pathway of the track. Luckily it dissipated according to the new station.

[starkvegasdawg]

Anything for Brandon? I work the afternoon shift so my wife will be home alone with the toddler and infant at nights. We were awakened at 0400 Thursday morning by the tornado here. Woke up just in time to turn it to the news to see our street in the pathway of the track. Luckily it dissipated according to the new station.

Further south the are the better for this storm. My gut tells me mist of the worst of this stays Highway 82 and north.

[Msujd164]

What are you guys feeling on Huntsville?

[starkvegasdawg]

What are you guys feeling on Huntsville?

I'd keep alert for Huntsville. Latest SPC discussion was specifically mentioning north MS for the tornado threat but Huntsville is right there.

[Oxfordawg]

What about around Oxford?

[starkvegasdawg]

If I were naming a target area right now I'd say north of 82 and east of I-55.

[viverlibre]

what time will the Jackson area be impacted?

[starkvegasdawg]

what time will the Jackson area be impacted?

Probably after midnight.

[Dawgology]

Bump because we are under 24 hours out. Concerned

[starkvegasdawg]

Bump because we are under 24 hours out. Concerned
Latest spc map out and it dropped the significant designation. Still enhanced and 10% chance of tornadoes. This may be the first sign it's coming in a little weaker than first thought.

[starkvegasdawg]

Still looking like a rough evening and night for north MS. Plan is to stage the chase in Leland and then move from there.

[Leeshouldveflanked]

It’s 58 degrees and cloudy here in New Albany at 11:00 am...doesn’t look like it’s getting warm enough for bad weather...

[biscuit]

Sun's out in Tate county.... makes for a nasty night

[CrosscityDawg]

It's cloudy and 60 in Corinth. The weather folks around here dont seem too concerned.

[Coach007]

Still looking like a rough evening and night for north MS. Plan is to stage the chase in Leland and then move from there.

Any new information.

[West Tn Dawg]

Yea, cloudy here in NW TN too. Some rain moving in shortly and this should help keep the severe stuff to a minimum.

[starkvegasdawg]

Not much change. Severe storm supposed to develop around sunset near the river.

[Leeshouldveflanked]

It’s 58 degrees and cloudy here in New Albany at 11:00 am...doesn’t look like it’s getting warm enough for bad weather...
66 at 2:45.... getting more like Tornado weather

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Not much change. Severe storm supposed to develop around sunset near the river.

Is it more of the delta in the area of concern or west central Mississippi near the river too?

[Pit Bull]

Better go crank up my generator for a test run just to make sure.

[starkvegasdawg]

Is it more of the delta in the area of concern or west central Mississippi near the river too?

I'd say north of 82 is biggest threat area.

[RocketDawg]

There have been several tornadoes in Louisiana with a bit of damage. TWC just showed a house in Nachitoches (not sure about the spelling or the pronunciation) that pretty much had all the shingles and felt blown off, and a couple of columns on the front porch were askew.

Several school systems in North and Central Alabama are going on 2-hour delay tomorrow.

[West Tn Dawg]

Tornado watches just issued for West Tn until 3:00am.

[RocketDawg]

Tornado watches just issued for West Tn until 3:00am.

And also middle Tenn up past Nashville. Oddly, it leaves NW Alabama out, at least for the time being. Probably will be in the next one issued if things hang together.