All you thinking we are headed back to the stone ages.

[Dawg61]

We don't have mass transfers and we aren't under NCAA sanctions. Our depth will still be here with the next coach is the point. There's probably 60 coaches or more in the country that could win 8 games with our roster right now. If this one doesn't work we'll just get one that will. The Croom days are gone forever. Calm your tits pus$ies. That means you 7.

[dawgday166]

We don't have mass transfers and we aren't under NCAA sanctions. Our depth will still be here with the next coach is the point. There's probably 60 coaches or more in the country that could win 8 games with our roster right now. If this one doesn't work we'll just get one that will. The Croom days are gone forever. Calm your tits pus$ies. That means you 7.

7 ... calm them damn titties will ya dude ******

[msstate7]

7 ... calm them damn titties will ya dude ******

Yeah, I need to. We are a powerhouse program now that can survive a bad hire.

[Dawg61]

Yeah, I need to. We are a powerhouse program now that can survive a bad hire.

We aren't a powerhouse but we can and will survive a bad hire. Hopefully Moorhead will start nutting up and stop suiciding his offense so I don't have to be proven right so quickly.

[dawgday166]

Can we get back to talking about "calm" vs. "excited" titties ... not 7's tho *****

[Homedawg]

Can we get back to talking about "calm" vs. "excited" titties ... not 7's tho *****

Hahaha.

[confucius say]

Some of you need to realize that, sans Mullen, we are kentucky in football. I actually still have hope for joe long term, but if he sucks and bombs it will be a decade of building to get back to where Mullen left us.

[dawgday166]

Some of you need to realize that, sans Mullen, we are kentucky in football. I actually still have hope for joe long term, but if he sucks and bombs it will be a decade of building to get back to where Mullen left us.

Right now I don't care if we swap our whole offense for Starkville High's ... if we can just get it going. I want something to give me a little hope it ain't FUBAR for the next few years.

[Dawg61]

Some of you need to realize that, sans Mullen, we are kentucky in football. I actually still have hope for joe long term, but if he sucks and bombs it will be a decade of building to get back to where Mullen left us.

Lol how's that? How come another coach can't win 8 games with our roster and why would it take him a decade to do so? This is a perfect example of the irrational sky is falling attitude that got this thread started.

[Cooterpoot]

Our roster takes a big hit this year. Joe isn’t recruiting well. Welcome to Rick Ray if Jo doesn’t turn it around. It’ll be years before we recover.

[Dawg61]

Our roster takes a big hit this year. Joe isn’t recruiting well. Welcome to Rick Ray if Jo doesn’t turn it around. It’ll be years before we recover.

Years before we recover from a coach that averaged 7 wins a season? Hahahahaha!!! Lol we are ranked 20th in recruiting right now. Rick Ray couldn't sniff 20th in recruiting if there were only 30 teams in the country. Chalk yourself up as another irrational pets heads are falling off guy.

[Drewbowski]

Gold, Mississippi

[Leeshouldveflanked]

There will 3-6 Transfers at end of season

[Dawgfan77]

Joe doesn?t get it. He is in over his head. He is a one trick pony with a HS offense that won?t work in the SEC. We are running an offense that requires the QB to read safety?s and the WR routes are based on a WCO tree. Slow developing pass plays against fast DL and safety?s. Yeah. Seems like this will work.... why RPOs work for other teams. Because the ball is out fast on limited pass route trees. We as a program would be better long term to fire him Friday after egg bowl.

[Dawg2003]

Oh, we could absolutely go back to Croom era football. We aren't immune to that. No on is really. Even AL isn't when Saban leaves. Schools with much more success than us have gone south. Tennessee, Texas, FL to name a few. No one is immune to anything. That's why people pay these coaches so much. Because you can't just go out and get another one that easily.

[Really Clark?]

Dawg61, no one is playing chicken little. Historically and statistically 90% of the teams that are in the lower half of P5 schools in historical win percentages, do regress. Usually back to their historic norm, when their most successful coach leaves. For us that would be below .500. There are so few examples of a team maintaining their winning percentage, never mind actually winning at a higher clip, that what is being pointed out is the expected outcome. Oregon has maintained a higher win percentage for such a long time that they are the best case. Miami right behind them although they have struggled mightily to get back to their 80?s/90?s peak. Fuentes so far has done pretty well maintaining VT but has not matched Beamers peak yet. And all of these schools had over 20 years to set that foundation. It?s not that we can?t or don?t want to build a higher standard than Mullen but is completely ignorant to not understand that statistically there was only a small chance that we even maintained our current level. And like him or not, a coach that wins a full percentage and half point over that schools historic average has been very successful for that program and rarely matched with the next 2-3 hires.

[Doggie_Style]

Joe doesn?t get it. He is in over his head. He is a one trick pony with a HS offense that won?t work in the SEC. We are running an offense that requires the QB to read safety?s and the WR routes are based on a WCO tree. Slow developing pass plays against fast DL and safety?s. Yeah. Seems like this will work.... why RPOs work for other teams. Because the ball is out fast on limited pass route trees. We as a program would be better long term to fire him Friday after egg bowl.

I completely agree.....if we give Moorcroom another year we will have burned the program to the ground and for us older fans we may never see an 8 win team again

[TrapGame]

7 are your man titties as nice as Matt Luke's?**

Joe either refuses or lacks the knowledge to tailor his offense to this team based on their strengths. Whichever is the case it's troubling.

[Cooterpoot]

Years before we recover from a coach that averaged 7 wins a season? Hahahahaha!!! Lol we are ranked 20th in recruiting right now. Rick Ray couldn't sniff 20th in recruiting if there were only 30 teams in the country. Chalk yourself up as another irrational pets heads are falling off guy.

Moorhead has averaged 7 wins? I haven't seen that. 20th in recruiting is good for 10th in the SEC. In a year with the best and deepest talent pool MS has seen in years. The fact is, 10 SEC teams are top 20. It's not that damn hard to reach. And we'll be worse than top 20 when the final rankings are done.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Dawg61, no one is playing chicken little. Historically and statistically 90% of the teams that are in the lower half of P5 schools in historical win percentages, do regress. Usually back to their historic norm, when their most successful coach leaves. For us that would be below .500. There are so few examples of a team maintaining their winning percentage, never mind actually winning at a higher clip, that what is being pointed out is the expected outcome. Oregon has maintained a higher win percentage for such a long time that they are the best case. Miami right behind them although they have struggled mightily to get back to their 80?s/90?s peak. Fuentes so far has done pretty well maintaining VT but has not matched Beamers peak yet. And all of these schools had over 20 years to set that foundation. It?s not that we can?t or don?t want to build a higher standard than Mullen but is completely ignorant to not understand that statistically there was only a small chance that we even maintained our current level. And like him or not, a coach that wins a full percentage and half point over that schools historic average has been very successful for that program and rarely matched with the next 2-3 hires.

Mullen never took us to the peaks of any of those programs you mentioned. Our peak was an Orange Bowl game, not a National Title game.

Moorhead currently has the team at a 4-3 record. Based off what you wrote, isn't that above our "historic norm"? Is that a regression based on facts?

I don't want to speak for him, but from what I gather from 61 - he's trying to point out that our "fall" wouldn't be what some on here would have us to believe. Instead, the "feeling" is that we are treading backwards into doom and gloom. Folks need to be able to differentiate "feelings" from "facts". We are currently where we always were under Mullen. If we win the games we should (big question mark there based on offensive production lately), we end up back in a middle of the road bowl like we have for the last 8-9 years.

[Jack Lambert]

We aren't a powerhouse but we can and will survive a bad hire. Hopefully Moorhead will start nutting up and stop suiciding his offense so I don't have to be proven right so quickly.

He 's not going anywhere but I think Cohen should sit him down and say you can either be a HC or a OC but not both.

[RougeDawg]

He 's not going anywhere but I think Cohen should sit him down and say you can either be a HC or a OC but not both.

If this does not happen both are gone within the next 18 months. Talked to a reliable source after game and Saturday nights 3 point shit show set the wheels in motion. Only adjustments and competent coaching can save both of them.

[Cooterpoot]

Mullen never took us to the peaks of any of those programs you mentioned. Our peak was an Orange Bowl game, not a National Title game.

Moorhead currently has the team at a 4-3 record. Based off what you wrote, isn't that above our "historic norm"? Is that a regression based on facts?

I don't want to speak for him, but from what I gather from 61 - he's trying to point out that our "fall" wouldn't be what some on here would have us to believe. Instead, the "feeling" is that we are treading backwards into doom and gloom. Folks need to be able to differentiate "feelings" from "facts". We are currently where we always were under Mullen. If we win the games we should (big question mark there based on offensive production lately), we end up back in a middle of the road bowl like we have for the last 8-9 years.


1. We will never catch AL. Just isn't going to happen. You have to take your shots at them in the years you've got good teams. This was the year.
2. How are we where Mullen had us when we can't even recruit the best in our state? When we lose games to teams we were favored to beat (Mullen won those). We can stop with trying to prove Jo is doing as well as Mullen.
3. We're dead last in the SEC West in recruiting and would be middle of the pack in the East. Thank god for KY and Vandy.

[Coursesuper]

If this does not happen both are gone within the next 18 months. Talked to a reliable source after game and Saturday nights 3 point shit show set the wheels in motion. Only adjustments and competent coaching can save both of them.

I have heard the same thing from someone that would know. The complete meltdown on offense has these guys worried. They are most concerned about the long term effects on the program, they do not want this to turn into a ten year mess. I know that some may not think that is possible, but think about it this way. Go 7-5 to 6-6 this year and this staff stays, they may manage 6-6 next year, past that it's down hill and in the mean time recruiting continues to back up for two more years. Then you get a new coach. If you want to look at a blueprint for what's going to happen just look at Arkansas that's where we're headed.

[TrapGame]

I have heard the same thing from someone that would know. The complete meltdown on offense has these guys worried. They are most concerned about the long term effects on the program, they do not want this to turn into a ten year mess. I know that some may not think that is possible, but think about it this way. Go 7-5 to 6-6 this year and this staff stays, they may manage 6-6 next year, past that it's down hill and in the mean time recruiting continues to back up for two more years. Then you get a new coach. If you want to look at a blueprint for what's going to happen just look at Arkansas that's where we're headed.

Fat Bert 2.0

[Really Clark?]

Mullen never took us to the peaks of any of those programs you mentioned. Our peak was an Orange Bowl game, not a National Title game.

Moorhead currently has the team at a 4-3 record. Based off what you wrote, isn't that above our "historic norm"? Is that a regression based on facts?

I don't want to speak for him, but from what I gather from 61 - he's trying to point out that our "fall" wouldn't be what some on here would have us to believe. Instead, the "feeling" is that we are treading backwards into doom and gloom. Folks need to be able to differentiate "feelings" from "facts". We are currently where we always were under Mullen. If we win the games we should (big question mark there based on offensive production lately), we end up back in a middle of the road bowl like we have for the last 8-9 years.

Where did I say Mullen put us at those peaks? No where did I state that. Those are the best case examples we can come up with and they still have some regression. The absolute best cases. 90% of the time it?s no where close to that good.

And for a continuation build like he is talking about then each coach to reach the programs pinnacle like those schools, have to be better than the previous or maintain the programs peak for multiple years. For Moorehead to accomplish that, and that would be closer in line to the winning Dawg61 was talking about, he will need to win at 9.5 per season (13 games) to match the same increase Mullen had above our historic norm.

[TrapGame]

If this does not happen both are gone within the next 18 months. Talked to a reliable source after game and Saturday nights 3 point shit show set the wheels in motion. Only adjustments and competent coaching can save both of them.


I have heard the same thing from someone that would know. The complete meltdown on offense has these guys worried. They are most concerned about the long term effects on the program, they do not want this to turn into a ten year mess. I know that some may not think that is possible, but think about it this way. Go 7-5 to 6-6 this year and this staff stays, they may manage 6-6 next year, past that it's down hill and in the mean time recruiting continues to back up for two more years. Then you get a new coach. If you want to look at a blueprint for what's going to happen just look at Arkansas that's where we're headed.

What about losing the Egg Bowl? Seems they're are some "sources" saying if we lose the EB Joe is done.

[Pollodawg]

What really disconcerts me about Moorhead is that he keeps acting like MSU was a rebuild when he got here. We were not.

As far as Nick goes, Mullen leaving ripped his heart out. All of his drive and focus went out the window when Dan left, and the Fitz era here was basically over after Thanksgiving. I think his heart isn?t it anymore, and?thus?he didn?t try that hard this off season. And Moorhead didn?t push him.

[TrapGame]

What really disconcerts me about Moorhead is that he keeps acting like MSU was a rebuild when he got here. We were not.

As far as Nick goes, Mullen leaving ripped his heart out. All of his drive and focus went out the window when Dan left, and the Fitz era here was basically over after Thanksgiving. I think his heart isn?t it anymore, and?thus?he didn?t try that hard this off season. And Moorhead didn?t push him.

That's why I get suspicious when Joe starts talking about "culture". We haven't had a culture problem since Jackie, really. Even Croom had the guys buying in and the bad apples to a minimum. He just couldn't coach worth a damn.

[Coursesuper]

What about losing the Egg Bowl? Seems they're are some "sources" saying if we lose the EB Joe is done.

The guys I know, aren't concerned about one game. They are much more focused on the long term, but that said what we are all witnessing at present isn't filling them up with confidence.

[Pollodawg]

[QUOTE=TrapGame;1014199]That's why I get suspicious when Joe starts talking about "culture". We haven't had a culture problem since Jackie, really. Even Croom had the guys buying in and the bad apples to a minimum. He just couldn't coach worth a damn.[/QUOTE

This. I don’t understand why he thinks we’re some rebuild. We’re coming off the most successful decade of football we’ve ever had with a senior laden team. Why did there did need to be drastic change? Would it have been so bad to 80-20 the offense (80 Dans stuff-20 Moorhead’s offense as a wrinkle here and there) just to get through this season? I don’t get it. How are you given the keys to a Benz and you immediately rip the Benz logo off and start tinkering with an engine that’s not broken.

This hire is an extension of IB. He’s a tinkerer. He was notorious for trying to “fix” lineups that weren’t broken.

[Dawg61]

Where did I say Mullen put us at those peaks? No where did I state that. Those are the best case examples we can come up with and they still have some regression. The absolute best cases. 90% of the time it?s no where close to that good.

And for a continuation build like he is talking about then each coach to reach the programs pinnacle like those schools, have to be better than the previous or maintain the programs peak for multiple years. For Moorehead to accomplish that, and that would be closer in line to the winning Dawg61 was talking about, he will need to win at 9.5 per season (13 games) to match the same increase Mullen had above our historic norm.

I'm not asking Joe or the next guy to average 9.5 wins a season. That's unrealistic and unfair to put that expectation on someone. Dan had it much easier to go from 5 wins a season to 7 than for anyone to go from 7 to 9.5. To expect an even greater jump percentage wise is damn near impossible unless we got Saban. There simply isn't enough games to expect that. I do expect Joe or the next guy to average 7 wins as their floor though and really be at 8 wins as average to be pleased with the hire. Averaging 7 wins is the standard Dan left this program at. I do want this coach and/or the next coach to be better than that. I certainly think that's possible. We are 4-3 right now. We've still got a fighter's chance for 8 wins on the table here with aTm, La Tech, Arkansas, Ole Miss and a lower bowl game (hopefully) still left to be played.

[Dawgfan77]

I?m not asking to be Bama. But what I?m asking is a floor of 7 and a ceiling of 10 and above. And before you say anything. We had a shot in 14 and messed it up. We had a shot last year and this year to win 10 or more. We have some advantages in that this state and in a 7 hr radius has enough talent for us to win and win consistently. Mullen proved that.
The main line issue we currently have is our current HC is in over his head that an iffy SEC base Defense ican stop this so called offense. We make no adjustments in game and at halftime. We looked lost on offense and the staff looks confused. We make no attempt to run what?s working or putting the players in a position to succeed. I don?t think firing joe at the end of the year will set us back like some think it will at worst it?s a break even with what joe brings to the table and I mean at worst we hire Hud And that?s the floor! I know I would rather try and build what we already have with a new coach than go down this black hole he will put us in. I don?t think the school or the community needs anything resembling a losing team. End this at the end of the year before he ruins the program and our floor becomes the RB coach for the packers

[Pit Bull]

Our roster takes a big hit this year. Joe isn?t recruiting well. Welcome to Rick Ray if Jo doesn?t turn it around. It?ll be years before we recover.

Football does take a lot longer to rebound and rebuild than any other sport. It depends on how bad we recruit. So far this year, is barely above average. If we were to lose one or two of our four-star players, it will be slightly below average. If we have an average or worse class next year, then it could be a while before Joe or any other coach gets us back to reasonably normal. We might start losing some OOC games and the close losses could become blowout losses. I had my hopes we could go to Knoxville next year and take one from UT, but now I just don't see it. Their QB is progressing upward very fast and their whole team seems to be improving now after a rough early start. We will be breaking in a lot of new players on both sides of the ball. We are not recruiting at a "reload" level yet. Still at a "rebuild" level. Must change that!

[Cooterpoot]

I'm not asking Joe or the next guy to average 9.5 wins a season. That's unrealistic and unfair to put that expectation on someone. Dan had it much easier to go from 5 wins a season to 7 than for anyone to go from 7 to 9.5. To expect an even greater jump percentage wise is damn near impossible unless we got Saban. There simply isn't enough games to expect that. I do expect Joe or the next guy to average 7 wins as their floor though and really be at 8 wins as average to be pleased with the hire. Averaging 7 wins is the standard Dan left this program at. I do want this coach and/or the next coach to be better than that. I certainly think that's possible. We are 4-3 right now. We've still got a fighter's chance for 8 wins on the table here with aTm, La Tech, Arkansas, Ole Miss and a lower bowl game (hopefully) still left to be played.

Wait, you started this by saying there are 60 coaches in America that could win 8 games here. Now, you're back to 7 games as the floor?

[Cooterpoot]

Football does take a lot longer to rebound and rebuild than any other sport. It depends on how bad we recruit. So far this year, is barely above average. If we were to lose one or two of our four-star players, it will be slightly below average. If we have an average or worse class next year, then it could be a while before Joe or any other coach gets us back to reasonably normal. We might start losing some OOC games and the close losses could become blowouts losses. I had my hopes we could go to Knoxville next year and take one from UT, but now I just don't see it. Their QB is progressing upward very fast and their whole team seems to be improving now after a rough early start. We will be breaking in a lot of new players on both sides of the ball. We are not recruiting at a "reload" level yet. Still at a "rebuild" level. Must change that!

Comparatively speaking from an average amongst SEC teams, we're below Mullen's average. He was normally around 8th in the SEC and 5th or 6th in the West. We're currently 10th and 7th.

[Dawg61]

Wait, you started this by saying there are 60 coaches in America that could win 8 games here. Now, you're back to 7 games as the floor?

Not sure you understand what "floor" means.

[msstate7]

Comparatively speaking from an average amongst SEC teams, we're below Mullen's average. He was normally around 8th in the SEC and 5th or 6th in the West. We're currently 10th and 7th.

So we downgraded at coaching and recruiting. Nice.

[Dawg61]

Comparatively speaking from an average amongst SEC teams, we're below Mullen's average. He was normally around 8th in the SEC and 5th or 6th in the West. We're currently 10th and 7th.

You're moving the goal posts here. How many times did Mullen land better than a 20th ranked class?

[tcdog70]

Look, we might have had our expectations too high. Thinking you will just roll into Death Valley and Win is wishful thinking at best--who does that except Bama. Plus we assumed FL and Ky would suck--they don't. Hell, we had Auburn as a loss and We won, so there is that. A&M goes and gets an elite Coach and He is doing what He does--win games. So in hind-sight
8-4 or 7-4 might not be bad. All of our losses have been to ranked teams 19-3. Now if we lose to the Hogs or Rebs then that is just not acceptable.

[msstate7]

You're moving the goal posts here. How many times did Mullen land better than a 20th ranked class?

So you think we finishing 20 or better?

[MetEdDawg]

I just want to know why everyone thinks we should recruit better because the state of MS has a deeper pool of talent this year. We are surrounded by Alabama, Auburn, and LSU, just to name a few we routinely go up against in recruiting for elite players.

The problem here is that our fan base has an entirely warped view of recruiting for us. Deeper in state just means that teams that are better than us can focus on the kids from MS more. We've already seen in previous cycles that when Alabama comes calling, there isn't much we can do to stop it. Why would that all of a sudden change? Come on people.

Get the hell over yourselves and realize that we aren't a consistent Top 20 recruiter and won't be for a little while. If we all want to step up our donations more we might could compete with them more, but right now we can't.

We are in a sucky position. We had our most talented team and our coach left. We had the deepest talent in the state recruiting and our coach and all the connections we previously had left. We were behind the 8 ball from day 1, so some of you guys need to stop sticking your necks out like we are some big badasses that deserve to have 9-10 wins all the time. This year it should have happened. But we literally changed everything. It sucks and a bunch of us don't want to admit it. We don't do the things as a university to make that happen. That's a damn fact and unfortunately some of us on here don't want to hear that.

If we had 3 losses but only lost 28-21 to UK and 19-16 to LSU, would you guys still be bitching? Yes. It doesn't matter how many points we scored. You all would have pissed no matter what losing the 3 we have. Those teams are better than they have been and they caught us transitioning. It happened. Sucks but it happened. But some of you are too pissed to see that we got shafted by the situation because all your lofty expectations that only happen once every 10 years got blown up.

[Pit Bull]

Mullen never took us to the peaks of any of those programs you mentioned. Our peak was an Orange Bowl game, not a National Title game.

Moorhead currently has the team at a 4-3 record. Based off what you wrote, isn't that above our "historic norm"? Is that a regression based on facts?

I don't want to speak for him, but from what I gather from 61 - he's trying to point out that our "fall" wouldn't be what some on here would have us to believe. Instead, the "feeling" is that we are treading backwards into doom and gloom. Folks need to be able to differentiate "feelings" from "facts". We are currently where we always were under Mullen. If we win the games we should (big question mark there based on offensive production lately), we end up back in a middle of the road bowl like we have for the last 8-9 years.

I guess the only good thing about all this is we're paying about 2 million less per year in HC salary.

[Really Clark?]

I'm not asking Joe or the next guy to average 9.5 wins a season. That's unrealistic and unfair to put that expectation on someone. Dan had it much easier to go from 5 wins a season to 7 than for anyone to go from 7 to 9.5. To expect an even greater jump percentage wise is damn near impossible unless we got Saban. There simply isn't enough games to expect that. I do expect Joe or the next guy to average 7 wins as their floor though and really be at 8 wins as average to be pleased with the hire. Averaging 7 wins is the standard Dan left this program at. I do want this coach and/or the next coach to be better than that. I certainly think that's possible. We are 4-3 right now. We've still got a fighter's chance for 8 wins on the table here with aTm, La Tech, Arkansas, Ole Miss and a lower bowl game (hopefully) still left to be played.

Well you’ve just changed your own criteria. Especially when you look at this in 5 year chunks which is around the avg tenure of a coach. Mullen’s last 5 he won at exactly 8 per year (does not include last years bowl game). So the idea that you are matching 7 is incorrect. The number to maintain is 8. But I’m sorry I thought that was the absolute floor you required the way you have talked over the years. If 8 is the floor then to somewhat match a similar output above our history like Mullen, then he is going to have to be at least 9 wins a year on avg

[Gutter Cobreh]

I guess the only good thing about all this is we're paying about 2 million less per year in HC salary.

Absolutely!

We had some here ready roll back the Brinks truck for Mullen at the end of last year. How foolish would that have been if we would have convinced him to stay and given him a hefty raise? We'd then be Auburn Jr. by paying a ridiculous salary to a coach who over 9 years only showed the ability to reach a certain level of consistency. Not even greatness or reaching the SEC championship, simply getting us to the Gator Bowl 3 times in 9 years.

Those financial decisions set programs back years, as does threatening to fire a new coach after year 1 - like some of our fans would like to do.

[MetEdDawg]

Absolutely!

We had some here ready roll back the Brinks truck for Mullen at the end of last year. How foolish would that have been if we would have convinced him to stay and given him a hefty raise? We'd then be Auburn Jr. by paying a ridiculous salary to a coach who over 9 years only showed the ability to reach a certain level of consistency. Not even greatness or reaching the SEC championship, simply getting us to the Gator Bowl 3 times in 9 years.

Those financial decisions set programs back years, as does threatening to fire a new coach after year 1 - like some of our fans would like to do.

Well you have to look at some on this board. The same people that wanted to fire Moorhead three weeks ago or at the end of the season are some of the same people who were convinced Shoop was a bad hire and would ruin the defense.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Well you’ve just changed your own criteria. Especially when you look at this in 5 year chunks which is around the avg tenure of a coach. Mullen’s last 5 he won at exactly 8 per year (does not include last years bowl game). So the idea that you are matching 7 is incorrect. The number to maintain is 8. But I’m sorry I thought that was the absolute floor you required the way you have talked over the years. If 8 is the floor then to somewhat match a similar output above our history like Mullen, then he is going to have to be at least 9 wins a year on avg

To me, the goal should be maintaining the floor (8 wins as you suggest) - with cycle years of having a legit chance to make a run at either beating Saban's Bama team or making the SEC Championship. If Moorhead can't prove he can do that in 3-4 years - find the next coach.

I do not envision us ever resorting to the 2-3 win seasons. Hell, Ole Miss doesn't even play defense and are under sanctions - yet look to be able to scrap out 6-7 wins this year.

[Really Clark?]

To me, the goal should be maintaining the floor (8 wins as you suggest) - with cycle years of having a legit chance to make a run at either beating Saban's Bama team or making the SEC Championship. If Moorhead can't prove he can do that in 3-4 years - find the next coach.

I do not envision us ever resorting to the 2-3 win seasons. Hell, Ole Miss doesn't even play defense and are under sanctions - yet look to be able to scrap out 6-7 wins this year.

Yeah not even talking about our goal. We are talking historic norms, especially with lower tier teams in power conferences and their historic numbers. We were what? .420-.430 win percentage (5 wins avg per year with 12 game schedule) prior to Mullen. We have a much large chance to drop back to that level than even to maintain the level we were when a very successful coach leaves. That’s what I wrote about. The idea that just staying put is easy and the norm, completely false. And to actually match the output over the winning coach that leaves, that is very rare air

[Dawg61]

So you think we finishing 20 or better?

Don't have any reason not to think we won't. I don't stalk recruiting though. If we are 15th or 25th it isn't much of a difference honestly. Recruiting rankings are for suckers. Outside the top 10 it's all just average dicks measuring against average dicks till you get to the putrid levels.

[Dawg61]

Well you’ve just changed your own criteria. Especially when you look at this in 5 year chunks which is around the avg tenure of a coach. Mullen’s last 5 he won at exactly 8 per year (does not include last years bowl game). So the idea that you are matching 7 is incorrect. The number to maintain is 8. But I’m sorry I thought that was the absolute floor you required the way you have talked over the years. If 8 is the floor then to somewhat match a similar output above our history like Mullen, then he is going to have to be at least 9 wins a year on avg

I haven't changed my own criteria. I said 60 or more coaches could win 8 games this year with this team but that isn't my floor for Joe or the next new coach we have. 7 is my floor. It isn't fair to set the floor at 8 for any new coach here when Mullen averaged 7 wins. Sure if you wanna cherry pick his last 5 years which include the 2014 season it averages out to 8 but to say Joe a first time HC in the SEC has to be better than Mullen's 7 wins he averaged first 5-6 years while Mullen is currently considered a top 15 coach isn't very fair.

[Doggie_Style]

delete

[Really Clark?]

I haven't changed my own criteria. I said 60 or more coaches could win 8 games this year with this team but that isn't my floor for Joe or the next new coach we have. 7 is my floor. It isn't fair to set the floor at 8 for any new coach here when Mullen averaged 7 wins. Sure if you wanna cherry pick his last 5 years which include the 2014 season it averages out to 8 but to say Joe a first time HC in the SEC has to be better than Mullen's 7 wins he averaged first 5-6 years while Mullen is currently considered a top 15 coach isn't very fair.

I guess is misunderstood what you were really saying then. And I didn’t cherry pick Mullen’s last 5 years, cherry picking would have been taking his best 5 over his career. His last 5 is the correct data set to set the stage for the new incoming coach. Statistically we have a greater chance of dropping back to our historic norm of a 5 win average. To follow a coach that won well over a percentage point of a programs history and maintain that exact number (whether that number is 7 or 8) is a lot harder to do. And I think that’s what I’m basing what you normal state what our program should be and build toward. Historically it doesn’t happen that often so the idea that there are 60 coaches out there able to do so, is pretty big overstatement of what’s the norm

[Gutter Cobreh]

Yeah not even talking about our goal. We are talking historic norms, especially with lower tier teams in power conferences and their historic numbers. We were what? .420-.430 win percentage (5 wins avg per year with 12 game schedule) prior to Mullen. We have a much large chance to drop back to that level than even to maintain the level we were when a very successful coach leaves. That’s what I wrote about. The idea that just staying put is easy and the norm, completely false. And to actually match the output over the winning coach that leaves, that is very rare air

I don't disagree with you, as you're actually one of the more rationale posters here, but I don't 100% agree with where you're coming from either. There are a lot of extenuating circumstances when comparing historical norms.

During the Croom years, we were under probation. The historical numbers won't show that, but being on probation isn't a norm for most schools (except Ole Miss).

Sherrill's last 5 years went like this: 10, 8, 3, 3, 2; which then fed into the Croom years.

Maybe we see the same cycle from Mullen to Moorhead, but the odds of us dropping to 2-3 win seasons again are slim...Hanging in the 6-8 wins arena are more realistic. I simply think if we can get a coach that puts the effort into all facets of the job, isn't a narcissist who alienates people, we can elevate the program higher than what Mullen did.

[Dawg2003]

To me, the goal should be maintaining the floor (8 wins as you suggest) - with cycle years of having a legit chance to make a run at either beating Saban's Bama team or making the SEC Championship. If Moorhead can't prove he can do that in 3-4 years - find the next coach.

I do not envision us ever resorting to the 2-3 win seasons. Hell, Ole Miss doesn't even play defense and are under sanctions - yet look to be able to scrap out 6-7 wins this year.

To me, 8 wins is the ceiling most years. With the talent we have, that's realistic. Maybe 10 wins every 5 years or so if things fall just right. I've seen nothing to prove otherwise.

[msstate7]

To me, 8 wins is the ceiling most years. With the talent we have, that's realistic. Maybe 10 wins every 5 years or so if things fall just right. I've seen nothing to prove otherwise.

We've won 9 games 3 of the last 4 years

[Really Clark?]

I don't disagree with you, as you're actually one of the more rationale posters here, but I don't 100% agree with where you're coming from either. There are a lot of extenuating circumstances when comparing historical norms.

During the Croom years, we were under probation. The historical numbers won't show that, but being on probation isn't a norm for most schools (except Ole Miss).

Sherrill's last 5 years went like this: 10, 8, 3, 3, 2; which then fed into the Croom years.

Maybe we see the same cycle from Mullen to Moorhead, but the odds of us dropping to 2-3 win seasons again are slim...Hanging in the 6-8 wins arena are more realistic. I simply think if we can get a coach that puts the effort into all facets of the job, isn't a narcissist who alienates people, we can elevate the program higher than what Mullen did.

I understand what your saying but I look at historical norms at P5 schools similar to us but not just us. That gives us a much larger data set to compare to. Without going through every school just compare with Kentucky Rich Brooks won about a half percentage point better than their norm, retired and Joker Phillips maintained for one year before massive regression. Stoops is back to above their historic norm but still has a losing record including this year. Prior to this season he was right at their history of .410 win percentage. The model of the Oregon’s, Miami’s, VT’s, etc. is great to keep building toward in terms of what we want with our program. Factor in our location and conference, and we have an even greater risk of dropping quickly back to our historic norm. And the drop is not really a constant 2-3 win season but more of the 4-5 win avg type with a 12 game schedule.

[Dawg2003]

We've won 9 games 3 of the last 4 years

That counts bowl games right? I was counting only regular season games, but I think saying 8-9 wins is our ceiling is accurate.

[Cooterpoot]

For me, 8 wins a year should be expected most years, with a 6 or 7 win season here and there, and a 10 win season here and there.