KT vs Fitz

[Coach 57]

After extensive research I have uncovered the hidden gem as to why it's time to go with KT over Fitz. According to my statistics that I've looked over time and time again I've uncovered that after all the SEC starts by MSU this year KT has as many passing TDs as Fitz does which is 0. Therefore it's time to make the change.

But in all honesty Nick hasn't shown the ability in the heat of the game that he can slow down mentally enough to process Vs SEC defenses post his injury to effectively be what he needs to be as a passer. It's time.

[basedog]

I agree

[Political Hack]

Hate it, but we've got to shake things up. And a change at QB always does that. I suspect they'll start Fitz and if we don't score quick, KT will jog in to a big ovation.

[Cooterpoot]

KT is going to play this week. But who's going to catch passes? Cause that's a problem too. Who's going to pick up the blitz? Another issue. Then, who's going to tell KT not to just keep it all the time when the defense gives him a certain pre-snap look. Because that's been a problem too.

[Coach 57]

KT is going to play this week. But who's going to catch passes? Cause that's a problem too. Who's going to pick up the blitz? Another issue. Then, who's going to tell KT not to just keep it all the time when the defense gives him a certain pre-snap look. Because that's been a problem too.


Well as far as the picking up the blitz from a RB perspective, Hill may be more dynamic than Aeris...but he is NOT a 3 down back in max protectional situations. He's proven that all year long, to have him in the game in that moment was a huge coaching gaff Vs LSU (the first INT).

He's not been good at that all year long. Aeris should be the starter because he is the ONLY three down back we have.

Fitz's issues are mental, they aren't physical and mental hurdles are the hardest to overcome in football. He looks frazzled Vs SEC competition because the game speeds up. He ain't the guy. He may look like a champ Vs tye scout team but aTm's defense ain't the scout team.

On run options he is keeping the ball rather than reading it and giving. I've seen this many times all year long. The RBs are tired of it because he is chasing stats Vs wins.

I'm grateful for what he has done & the sacrifice he has made for this team and university but it ain't personal its business and it's time to sit down the all time SEC leading QB rusher. He isn't the guy.

[Ari Gold]

It’s to the point that you have to go with the hot hand . Treat it like a shooter in hoops.
If Fitz is moving the ball and we are scoring roll with Fitz if not you call on KT

Plus it may like many have said give the team a jump start if KT is in.

Nothing to lose at this point.

[AROB44]

Plus....might as well see if KT can run Moorhead's offense or will be able to next year. If not, move on to Mayden. FItz will not be back next year....might as well experiment some for next year.

[TrapGame]

Plus....might as well see if KT can run Moorhead's offense or will be able to next year. If not, move on to Mayden. FItz will not be back next year....might as well experiment some for next year.

I can't believe we have 4 QBs and not a one can even remotely run Joe's offense. Can't make the reads or the throws or the adjustments.

Fitz has started 6 games and he may worse now than when he started vs K State. There's been zero improvement.

[Matty Dispatch]

Let's sign a petition and give it to Coach Moorhead!!!**

[Dawgology]

So let's compare Fitz and KT. I just compiled their stats starting at the Egg Bowl last year. I chose the Egg Bowl because that is the first significant playing time that KT had. Over this time span Fitz has played in 7 games while KT has only played in 4 (2 last year and 2 this year). Here are the compiled stats for that time span pulled from the MSU website.

PASSING STATS

Fitz: 70-152 (46%) 780 yards 4-8 (TD/INT)

KT: 39-81 (48%) 719 yards 6-3 (TD/INT) w/o last years stats 15-34 (44%) 397 yards 5-1 (TD/INT) (he's only had significant playing time in the first game)

RUSHING STATS (over same period)

Fitz: 121 for 738 yards (6.1 ypc) 7 TD

KT: 68 for 467 yards (6.87 ypc) 7 TD

DO with that what you will.

[Coach007]

KT is going to play this week. But who's going to catch passes? Cause that's a problem too. Who's going to pick up the blitz? Another issue. Then, who's going to tell KT not to just keep it all the time when the defense gives him a certain pre-snap look. Because that's been a problem too.

There's one more issue. Post snap read. In this system, it's both... pre snap and post snap.

[TrapGame]

There's one more issue. Post snap read. In this system, it's both... pre snap and post snap.

Did Fitz have a post snap read in Mullen's system?

[Coach007]

So let's compare Fitz and KT. I just compiled their stats starting at the Egg Bowl last year. I chose the Egg Bowl because that is the first significant playing time that KT had. Over this time span Fitz has played in 7 games while KT has only played in 4 (2 last year and 2 this year). Here are the compiled stats for that time span pulled from the MSU website.

PASSING STATS

Fitz: 70-152 (46%) 780 yards 4-8 (TD/INT)

KT: 39-81 (48%) 719 yards 6-3 (TD/INT) w/o last years stats 15-34 (44%) 397 yards 5-1 (TD/INT) (he's only had significant playing time in the first game)

RUSHING STATS (over same period)

Fitz: 121 for 738 yards (6.1 ypc) 7 TD

KT: 68 for 467 yards (6.87 ypc) 7 TD

DO with that what you will.

Yeah, comparing stats in 2 different systems isn't telling you anything.

Both QBS have stepped backwards in this system by about 5-6% in completions. Fitz, as far as the old system and history, should be at 58-59%, KT about 54%. They are, as of now, 49.5% and 42%. That's in this system.


Look, the truth is the system does not suit the player. Neither the player nor the system is bad, they just don't mesh. It's like trying to install Mac Software on a PC. Not really compatible. Peyton Manning would have never ran this system and would have never made it to the NFL if he had tried to come through a system like this. Nobody would say Peyton was a horrible QB.

[Dawgology]

I gotta be honest...I'd love to see more formations where both Fitz and KT are in the backfield.

[Really Clark?]

So let's compare Fitz and KT. I just compiled their stats starting at the Egg Bowl last year. I chose the Egg Bowl because that is the first significant playing time that KT had. Over this time span Fitz has played in 7 games while KT has only played in 4 (2 last year and 2 this year). Here are the compiled stats for that time span pulled from the MSU website.

PASSING STATS

Fitz: 70-152 (46%) 780 yards 4-8 (TD/INT)

KT: 39-81 (48%) 719 yards 6-3 (TD/INT) w/o last years stats 15-34 (44%) 397 yards 5-1 (TD/INT) (he's only had significant playing time in the first game)

RUSHING STATS (over same period)

Fitz: 121 for 738 yards (6.1 ypc) 7 TD

KT: 68 for 467 yards (6.87 ypc) 7 TD

DO with that what you will.

125th rated defense in Egg Bowl, 93rd rated defense vs Louisville, 2-6 FCS team 71st in scoring defense in FCS, ULL mop up duty? Counting that? 114th in total defense

[Dawgology]

Yeah, comparing stats in 2 different systems isn't telling you anything.

Both QBS have stepped backwards in this system by about 5-6% in completions. Fitz, as far as the old system and history, should be at 58-59%, KT about 54%. They are, as of now, 49.5% and 42%. That's in this system.


Look, the truth is the system does not suit the player. Neither the player nor the system is bad, they just don't mesh. It's like trying to install Mac Software on a PC. Not really compatible. Peyton Manning would have never ran this system and would have never made it to the NFL if he had tried to come through a system like this. Nobody would say Peyton was a horrible QB.

No but it does address the narrative that some are floating that KT is much worse than Fitz. The stats (including last years stats or not) don't bear that out. In fact, KT's TD/INT ratio improves and his rushing average becomes about 10 YPC without last years stats factored in.

[thf24]

Did Fitz have a post snap read in Mullen's system?

Fundamentally in the read option the keyed DE or OLB is read post-snap, though supposedly it's predetermined in a surprising number of offenses in which it looks like a read. I know Auburn's is one of these; not sure how often it was or was not in Mullen's.

[Lord McBuckethead]

KT is going to play this week. But who's going to catch passes? Cause that's a problem too. Who's going to pick up the blitz? Another issue. Then, who's going to tell KT not to just keep it all the time when the defense gives him a certain pre-snap look. Because that's been a problem too.

well about 5 times last week, fitz threw the ball where someone could catch it. All LSU players. They only dropped one all night.

[Matty Dispatch]

So let's compare Fitz and KT. I just compiled their stats starting at the Egg Bowl last year. I chose the Egg Bowl because that is the first significant playing time that KT had. Over this time span Fitz has played in 7 games while KT has only played in 4 (2 last year and 2 this year). Here are the compiled stats for that time span pulled from the MSU website.

PASSING STATS

Fitz: 70-152 (46%) 780 yards 4-8 (TD/INT)

KT: 39-81 (48%) 719 yards 6-3 (TD/INT) w/o last years stats 15-34 (44%) 397 yards 5-1 (TD/INT) (he's only had significant playing time in the first game)

RUSHING STATS (over same period)

Fitz: 121 for 738 yards (6.1 ypc) 7 TD

KT: 68 for 467 yards (6.87 ypc) 7 TD

DO with that what you will.

This doesn't account for a key metric: defense faced.

(total defense ranking)

Key: Ole Miss (116th), Louisville (62nd), SFA (FCS)

Fitz: K-State (83rd), ULL (114th), UK (12th), UF (22nd), Auburn (34th), LSU (25th)

Texas A&M is 22nd.

[TrapGame]

Look, the truth is the system does not suit the player. Neither the player nor the system is bad, they just don't mesh. It's like trying to install Mac Software on a PC. Not really compatible. Peyton Manning would have never ran this system and would have never made it to the NFL if he had tried to come through a system like this. Nobody would say Peyton was a horrible QB.

And that's not what we were sold. Joe's system was not too complicated. It would take two to four games to really start clicking then Katie bar the door.

This is like a brand new next gen rocket that explodes on the launching pad before it lifts off.

[Coach007]

Did Fitz have a post snap read in Mullen's system?

not in the same manner as this... but yes. Any option, you make a post snap read. Mullen ran more of a spread to run option. But yes.


Mullen used a lot of 3 WR, TE, and RB sets. He would place in motion a WR to force the D to show it's hand at the safety position. Are they going to be in run support or coverage support. That's pre snap. He has seen this a lot and knows it. Post snap, he is watching the LB (mostly outside) and makes the decision on keeping or running. It generally meant 8 dawgs vs 7 defenders because the QB is a run threat.


JoMo wants more passing. So it's not just a run option.... it has a pass option in it. So the pre snap, he's reading the square. Post snap he has to know who the conflict defenders are, if they change, and what they are doing. So post snap example is seeing that the numbers in box are 7 and you have 6. You have to know your attack. If you what conflict defender you want to make the decision for you does. Let's use the OLB. 7(in a 4-3) in box with a safety deep. man to man on the 3 wrs. You see they are heavy on the right, so your focus is the OLB on the short side (left). The play is an RPO. 3 options here. All based on a split second on what that OLB does. If he drops into a coverage post snap... hand it off or run. If he bites, quick slant.



To use Moorhead's own words on it:

“Probably the, I wouldn’t say difficult, but most time-consuming aspect is the quarterback knowing where his pre- and post-snap reads are and allowing him the leeway to differentiate that the guy he is reading is playing the run or the pass, whether he should hand it off or actually throw the ball,”

[Coach007]

And that's not what we were sold. Joe's system was not too complicated. It would take two to four games to really start clicking then Katie bar the door.

This is like a brand new next gen rocket that explodes on the launching pad before it lifts off.

This is 100% true. I would have never thought he would have pulled out all of last year's plays. When I heard that the system was completely integrated, I was amazed and excited because I knew what the RPO that JoMo runs vs Mullen's system and felt we had a new element.

[chef dixon]

Every series you give Fitz this Saturday is a waste. Virtually no chance of getting points. Start Key from the beginning.

[bulldawg28]

Well as far as the picking up the blitz from a RB perspective, Hill may be more dynamic than Aeris...but he is NOT a 3 down back in max protectional situations. He's proven that all year long, to have him in the game in that moment was a huge coaching gaff Vs LSU (the first INT).

He's not been good at that all year long. Aeris should be the starter because he is the ONLY three down back we have.

Fitz's issues are mental, they aren't physical and mental hurdles are the hardest to overcome in football. He looks frazzled Vs SEC competition because the game speeds up. He ain't the guy. He may look like a champ Vs tye scout team but aTm's defense ain't the scout team.

On run options he is keeping the ball rather than reading it and giving. I've seen this many times all year long. The RBs are tired of it because he is chasing stats Vs wins.

I'm grateful for what he has done & the sacrifice he has made for this team and university but it ain't personal its business and it's time to sit down the all time SEC leading QB rusher. He isn't the guy.

I agree big time. Hill wants no part of a blitz. He ducks and picks sides.

[BuckyIsAB****]

After extensive research I have uncovered the hidden gem as to why it's time to go with KT over Fitz. According to my statistics that I've looked over time and time again I've uncovered that after all the SEC starts by MSU this year KT has as many passing TDs as Fitz does which is 0. Therefore it's time to make the change.

But in all honesty Nick hasn't shown the ability in the heat of the game that he can slow down mentally enough to process Vs SEC defenses post his injury to effectively be what he needs to be as a passer. It's time.

If anything it all it answers whether we have a QB problem or a system problem

[Commercecomet24]

After extensive research I have uncovered the hidden gem as to why it's time to go with KT over Fitz. According to my statistics that I've looked over time and time again I've uncovered that after all the SEC starts by MSU this year KT has as many passing TDs as Fitz does which is 0. Therefore it's time to make the change.

But in all honesty Nick hasn't shown the ability in the heat of the game that he can slow down mentally enough to process Vs SEC defenses post his injury to effectively be what he needs to be as a passer. It's time.

Yep as much as I love what Nick has done it's time to try something different. KT needs to get a shot now.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Every series you give Fitz this Saturday is a waste. Virtually no chance of getting points. Start Key from the beginning.

This needs to be what happens. But we'll start Nick and we'll luck into getting a FG out of one of the 1st two possessions and that'll be all Moorhead needs to stick with Nick no matter what happens the rest of the way. We'll lose something like 24-6.

[Dawgology]

This needs to be what happens. But we'll start Nick and we'll luck into getting a FG out of one of the 1st two possessions and that'll be all Moorhead needs to stick with Nick no matter what happens the rest of the way. We'll lose something like 24-6.

You think we will score that many against the #4 rushing defense in the nation? i'm thinking another loss where we score a field goal (if we get a turnover). My guess: 27-3. The wheels have come off this train.

[Dawgology]

It's interesting that folks are saying that KT can't play in JoMo's offense when he was the #5 Dual Threat QB in the nation out of highschool and Shrader is the #10.

I know it's just a score and is subjective and it comes down to coach evaluation but still...

[BrunswickDawg]

I'm going to push back on the KT vs. SFA being an aberration -
I went and looked at Wyatt's film study on it -

1st TD to Kylin was a legit good read of the defense. SEC Db closing speed would have possibly kept it from being a TD - but it would have been positive yards for sure regardless of who we played.

The scramble TD to Aeris to go up 28-3 was what awareness and the ability to pick up open receivers downfield get you. It wasn't the best pass- but no one was within 5 yards of Aeris as he got lost in the coverage. It was the correct choice in the situation and didn't have to be a perfect pass. We see that happen all the time regardless of how great a D you are playing - it's a QB and receiver knowing where to go and what to do in a certain situation.

The TD to go up 35-3, KT made a tough throw that had air on it to avoid an LB and a Ref in the throwing lane - and slightly overthrew it to Jones who made a great 1 handed catch in front of 2 defenders. Dangerous, but hit the open guy.

The TD to Mitchell to go up 42-3 was thrown to a spot before the WR was open. Poorly played by the DB, but Mitchell had the outside position, on a ball thrown to the outside that would have been difficult to pick without PI.

The TD to Mixon, the DB bit on the fake sweep and Mixon blew by him. KT stared Mixon down a bit, then under threw it a bit, but the man was beat, and KT again made the throw needed.

Yeah, we came out cold in the 3rd and he threw 7 straight incompletions - but 3 of those SFA was credited with QB hurries so the OL didn't help.
Yes it was SFA. But, if you look at the decision making, it seemed more in-line with what the offense required for the situation. And he made the throws. Right now Fitz is doing neither.

[chef dixon]

It's interesting that folks are saying that KT can't play in JoMo's offense when he was the #5 Dual Threat QB in the nation out of highschool and Shrader is the #10.

I know it's just a score and is subjective and it comes down to coach evaluation but still...

It?s a stupid take that a lot of people who love Fitz to death are hanging on to. We won?t know until he plays.

[RiverCityDawg]

I'm going to push back on the KT vs. SFA being an aberration -
I went and looked at Wyatt's film study on it -

1st TD to Kylin was a legit good read of the defense. SEC Db closing speed would have possibly kept it from being a TD - but it would have been positive yards for sure regardless of who we played.

The scramble TD to Aeris to go up 28-3 was what awareness and the ability to pick up open receivers downfield get you. It wasn't the best pass- but no one was within 5 yards of Aeris as he got lost in the coverage. It was the correct choice in the situation and didn't have to be a perfect pass. We see that happen all the time regardless of how great a D you are playing - it's a QB and receiver knowing where to go and what to do in a certain situation.

The TD to go up 35-3, KT made a tough throw that had air on it to avoid an LB and a Ref in the throwing lane - and slightly overthrew it to Jones who made a great 1 handed catch in front of 2 defenders. Dangerous, but hit the open guy.

The TD to Mitchell to go up 42-3 was thrown to a spot before the WR was open. Poorly played by the DB, but Mitchell had the outside position, on a ball thrown to the outside that would have been difficult to pick without PI.

The TD to Mixon, the DB bit on the fake sweep and Mixon blew by him. KT stared Mixon down a bit, then under threw it a bit, but the man was beat, and KT again made the throw needed.

Yeah, we came out cold in the 3rd and he threw 7 straight incompletions - but 3 of those SFA was credited with QB hurries so the OL didn't help.
Yes it was SFA. But, if you look at the decision making, it seemed more in-line with what the offense required for the situation. And he made the throws. Right now Fitz is doing neither.

Great post.

My concern is that was just one game, so I'm hesitant to draw any conclusions, good or bad. If you considered only the ULL game for Fitz you would say he's the second or third best passer in the conference and a sure 1-3 round draft pick. Now we've seen several games from Fitz and know he's not that guy against good defenses. How will KT look in this offense against SEC defenses in a real game? We don't know, but it's time to find out to see if it's better.

[I_Spy]

I say if we match up well and fitz can be fitz, go with Fitz but if we can?t do anything (I trust our D to keep us in it) switch to KT.

But also we need a Jameon Lewis or even a Holloway - that tough dependable player that?s always open and people at least look to in plays.

It only takes a quarter to know about Nick as we never adjust too much in a game.

[I_Spy]

You know what I mean, those short WR types, who have had to always work hard bc of their height. They can catch everything, block everything, play multi positions and free up the bigger WR

I’m not meaning Holloway as a RB. I’m meaning Holloway every other way he played. Good hands, always open, would always move the ball up the field much like Jameon.

[Lord McBuckethead]

It?s a stupid take that a lot of people who love Fitz to death are hanging on to. We won?t know until he plays.

Bingo. We will not know how he handles the work until we get him some consistent playing time. I want to know where he this season to not completely screw up next year trying to get Fitz to become what he isn't by facto screwing 2 seasons up.

[dawgday166]

I'm going to push back on the KT vs. SFA being an aberration -
I went and looked at Wyatt's film study on it -

1st TD to Kylin was a legit good read of the defense. SEC Db closing speed would have possibly kept it from being a TD - but it would have been positive yards for sure regardless of who we played.

The scramble TD to Aeris to go up 28-3 was what awareness and the ability to pick up open receivers downfield get you. It wasn't the best pass- but no one was within 5 yards of Aeris as he got lost in the coverage. It was the correct choice in the situation and didn't have to be a perfect pass. We see that happen all the time regardless of how great a D you are playing - it's a QB and receiver knowing where to go and what to do in a certain situation.

The TD to go up 35-3, KT made a tough throw that had air on it to avoid an LB and a Ref in the throwing lane - and slightly overthrew it to Jones who made a great 1 handed catch in front of 2 defenders. Dangerous, but hit the open guy.

The TD to Mitchell to go up 42-3 was thrown to a spot before the WR was open. Poorly played by the DB, but Mitchell had the outside position, on a ball thrown to the outside that would have been difficult to pick without PI.

The TD to Mixon, the DB bit on the fake sweep and Mixon blew by him. KT stared Mixon down a bit, then under threw it a bit, but the man was beat, and KT again made the throw needed.

Yeah, we came out cold in the 3rd and he threw 7 straight incompletions - but 3 of those SFA was credited with QB hurries so the OL didn't help.
Yes it was SFA. But, if you look at the decision making, it seemed more in-line with what the offense required for the situation. And he made the throws. Right now Fitz is doing neither.

I was ready to go with KT after last week anyway. Fitz ain't turning it around IMO, even if the rest of the offense gets their act together too.

If KT comes in and does well, I'll be both happy and pissed. Pissed cause JoMo should've tried it sooner.

[HoopsDawg]

After extensive research I have uncovered the hidden gem as to why it's time to go with KT over Fitz. According to my statistics that I've looked over time and time again I've uncovered that after all the SEC starts by MSU this year KT has as many passing TDs as Fitz does which is 0. Therefore it's time to make the change.

But in all honesty Nick hasn't shown the ability in the heat of the game that he can slow down mentally enough to process Vs SEC defenses post his injury to effectively be what he needs to be as a passer. It's time.

This is what sucks about Moorhead's coaching, it's making a lot of fans take shots at Nick. It's really a shame.