SEC QB Drop Rate

[BrunswickDawg]

Interesting stats....

https://twitter.com/cfbfilmroom/status/1052617498875625477?s=21

[TrapGame]

Beat me by a minute. Your post is better.

[Dental Dawg33]

Guidry and Mitchell have been responsible for quite a few

[TrapGame]

The drop in the Florida game still makes me cringe. We win the game with that catch.

[msudawglb]

The drop in the Florida game still makes me cringe. We win the game with that catch.

Yep...catch that ball and we would still control our own destiny for the SEC championship.

[Tbonewannabe]

The drop in the Florida game still makes me cringe. We win the game with that catch.

My wife said we lost as soon as he dropped it. It killed our team.

[TrapGame]

My wife said we lost as soon as he dropped it. It killed our team.

Deflated like a balloon. I think catching that ball builds momentum and confidence after a terrible UK showing.

[msudawglb]

My wife said we lost as soon as he dropped it. It killed our team.

I said we lost as soon as several linemen tripped over each other and fell coming through the smoke onto the field. Someone really needs to get the smoke under control.

[Dawg61]

Yes our WRs have had too many drops but again Fitz throws the ball way too hard and with zero touch so half those drops are on him. It is what it is. He rushed for 195 yards vs Auburn and is the all-time SEC leader in QB rushing. He's not Peyton Manning throwing the ball.

[Cooterpoot]

I thought you meant sacks.

[fishwater99]

I said we lost as soon as several linemen tripped over each other and fell coming through the smoke onto the field. Someone really needs to get the smoke under control.

Happens every year.

[ShotgunDawg]

Yes our WRs have had too many drops but again Fitz throws the ball way too hard and with zero touch so half those drops are on him. It is what it is. He rushed for 195 yards vs Auburn and is the all-time SEC leader in QB rushing. He's not Peyton Manning throwing the ball.

This. He throws a bowling ball.

From a technical standpoint, I think Fitz has great arm strength but he doesn't spin the ball well. Meaning his pass has low RPMs, which makes it heavy. Kind of like a sinker baller in baseball.

Guys with higher RPM passes don't have to throw the ball as hard to get it where they want because the pass is naturally more aerodynamic.

[chef dixon]

That's 12 drops total.

Let's say we have 6 so far. That puts his rate at 9% which is middle of the pack. He's still at 55% completions with that. With 0 drops he's at 63%, which isn't even the goal we set out for this season.

[Jarius]

This. He throws a bowling ball.

From a technical standpoint, I think Fitz has great arm strength but he doesn't spin the ball well. Meaning his pass has low RPMs, which makes it heavy. Kind of like a sinker baller in baseball.

Guys with higher RPM passes don't have to throw the ball as hard to get it where they want because the pass is naturally more aerodynamic.

Brett Favre broke receivers’ fingers in practice he threw it so hard. They need to catch the ball. They are supposedly SEC receivers.

[ShotgunDawg]

Brett Favre broke receivers’ fingers in practice he threw it so hard. They need to catch the ball. They are supposedly SEC receivers.

Yes but those are NFL WRs and Favre only threw that hard when he had to. It's not like he threw the majority of his passes at max effort.

[chef dixon]

By the way that is an excellent follow. Kylin Hill leading the SEC with only 7.6% of his runs going for 0 or negative yardage.

[Sacrifice]

These recievers except Guidry have been catching balls from Fitz at practice everyday for at least 2 yrs now. They catch bullets off the jugs machine from 5 yards away everyday. There's no excuse for the drops. I find it hard to believe our recievers would say, coach he just threw the ball to hard, I couldn't catch it.

[Cooterpoot]

We don't have SEC caliber receivers. It's pretty simple. Not a single one of our WRs start for other SEC schools. It could be the worst collection of WR talent on a P5 team. Yes, it's that bad.

[Jarius]

Yes but those are NFL WRs and Favre only threw that hard when he had to. It's not like he threw the majority of his passes at max effort.

Fitz throwing the ball too hard is extremely overblown. Our receivers suck ass. Period.

[Todd4State]

We don't have SEC caliber receivers. It's pretty simple. Not a single one of our WRs start for other SEC schools. It could be the worst collection of WR talent on a P5 team. Yes, it's that bad.

Thanks Billy Gonzalez!

[Dawg61]

These recievers except Guidry have been catching balls from Fitz at practice everyday for at least 2 yrs now. They catch bullets off the jugs machine from 5 yards away everyday. There's no excuse for the drops. I find it hard to believe our recievers would say, coach he just threw the ball to hard, I couldn't catch it.

I doubt he throws 100 mph fastballs in practice. It's easier to catch passes when the Qb doesn't put full velocity into the throw especially when it's a short pass. That's just a fact. The drop Guidry had last game he was maybe 6 yards from Fitz while trying to run a drag route with a defender on his back and Fitz threw it 100 mph right at his chest. Odell Beckham would drop that type of pass 1/3rd the time.

[Sacrifice]

I doubt he throws 100 mph fastballs in practice. It's easier to catch passes when the Qb doesn't put full velocity into the throw especially when it's a short pass. That's just a fact. The drop Guidry had last game he was maybe 6 yards from Fitz while trying to run a drag route with a defender on his back and Fitz threw it 100 mph right at his chest. Odell Beckham would drop that type of pass 1/3rd the time.

I think Guidry himself would've said he should've caught that ball. What about the Guidry drop on the 1st drive against Florida. Was that to hard too?

[Dawg61]

I think Guidry himself would've said he should've caught that ball. What about the Guidry drop on the 1st drive against Florida. Was that to hard too?

He barely dropped that ball. Took a review to discover it.

[LC Dawg]

I don't know why we have to keep going over this. Fitz is not a good passer of the football and our receivers are not good catchers of the football.

[dawgday166]

Yes our WRs have had too many drops but again Fitz throws the ball way too hard and with zero touch so half those drops are on him. It is what it is. He rushed for 195 yards vs Auburn and is the all-time SEC leader in QB rushing. He's not Peyton Manning throwing the ball.

Every throw he made in the FL game except for 3 or 4 off target throws was with the right speed and touch. Go watch again and rewind it. I have rewatched and rewound a lot of individual plays in that game twice now. The very short crossing pattern to Guidry in AU game was too hard for that distance. But 90% or better of his throws on crossing patterns this year ... there's nothing wrong with the speed of those throws.

An additional general comment to the above quote pertaining particularly to crossing patterns is ... bullshit. If it hits them in the hands I don't care if it's 200 mph they should catch it.

[dawgday166]

Interesting stats....

https://twitter.com/cfbfilmroom/status/1052617498875625477?s=21

Add 16.4 to 49.6 and what percentage do you get?

[RocketDawg]

1 out of 6 for Fitz, 1 out of 23 for the Alabama guy.

Almost 4 times the rate for us.

[BrunswickDawg]

Our WR have almost doubled the drop rate from last year -

https://twitter.com/cfbfilmroom/status/1027972761015267328?s=21

[TUSK]

1 out of 6 for Fitz, 1 out of 23 for the Alabama guy.

Almost 4 times the rate for us.

That cat drops dimes in his WRs "laps"... it's uncanny how well he places the ball for them...

[Rick Danko]

My take, and I?m no expert, our WR?s are good enough for the group of 5, but have no business being a starting group for an SEC school...

[Homedawg]

Thanks Billy Gonzalez!

I'll be so glad when 4/5 years passes when you can quit blaming our former staff on everything. Guess they were the reason we lost to Florida? Oh wait.............
ETA- and I assure you I understand that they had their issues, several of them. But still. Our current coaches recruit way harder, now they need to turn that into results. Effort doesn't necessarily equal success. And yes I know and knew members of both staffs. Fact is last staff was one that led us to heights we've never seen for an extended time. That's a fact.

[dawgoneyall]

Fitz throwing the ball too hard is extremely overblown. Our receivers suck ass. Period.

This.

[Homedawg]

He barely dropped that ball. Took a review to discover it.

While Fitz throws a bullet most of the time, that one wasn't. And come on man, because it took review it matters? Hell, he dropped it. And I'm on your side that Fitz can't throw and throws too hard, but that's a terrible stance

[Homedawg]

Every throw he made in the FL game except for 3 or 4 off target throws was with the right speed and touch. Go watch again and rewind it. I have rewatched and rewound a lot of individual plays in that game twice now. The very short crossing pattern to Guidry in AU game was too hard for that distance. But 90% or better of his throws on crossing patterns this year ... there's nothing wrong with the speed of those throws.

An additional general comment to the above quote pertaining particularly to crossing patterns is ... bullshit. If it hits them in the hands I don't care if it's 200 mph they should catch it.

Except 3/4??? That's too many that were thrown wrong. We didn't throw it 1000 times.

[dawgday166]

Except 3/4??? That's too many that were thrown wrong. We didn't throw it 1000 times.

LOL ... even Joe Montana had 3 or 4 off target throws a game. If he didn't he would've completed 95% for his career SMH.

[BrunswickDawg]

Except 3/4??? That's too many that were thrown wrong. We didn't throw it 1000 times.

3 or 4 not 3/4

[Homedawg]

3 or 4 not 3/4

To be fair I misread it, I thought it said 3 or 4 were thrown w the wrong speed. Not that he said 3 or 4 off target throws. My fault I read it wrong. But I'll have to watch it again before I agree w the 3 or 4. Which I won't so I guess I'll go w it. My bad

[maroonmania]

I think Guidry himself would've said he should've caught that ball. What about the Guidry drop on the 1st drive against Florida. Was that to hard too?

Exactly, or was the Mitchell drop of the 50 yard TD pass thrown too hard? A lot of you are going out of your way to put undue blame on Fitz. No, he doesn't throw a great ball but there are LOTS of successful QBs in college that don't throw a great ball. Our passing game has 3 major problems and Fitz is third on the list. The first is an OL that can't protect the Qb in the pocket (although I will admit Fitz doesn't have much pocket presence) and second is a set of WRs that don't consistently catch the ball when it hits them square in the hands.

[dawgday166]

I doubt he throws 100 mph fastballs in practice. It's easier to catch passes when the Qb doesn't put full velocity into the throw especially when it's a short pass. That's just a fact. The drop Guidry had last game he was maybe 6 yards from Fitz while trying to run a drag route with a defender on his back and Fitz threw it 100 mph right at his chest. Odell Beckham would drop that type of pass 1/3rd the time.

Beckham probably so.

Betcha Swann or Stallworth catch it every time. They never went back to huddle and said in whiney voice "Terry ... you throwing it too hard". *** They were also getting mugged when running their routes back then. And if they caught a crossing pattern over the middle there was a chance Jack Tatum or someone similar would make them a quadriplegic.

[Sacrifice]

I want to know how the conversation goes with the coach after a player drops a pass that's thrown to hard? Maybe....

Coach: Wtf happened?
Player: Coach, he threw the ball to hard.
Coach: He threw the ball to hard?
Player: yes sir! I think it jammed my finger.
Coach: Ok have the training staff look at your finger AND TELL THEM TO CHECK YOUR F-ING ****** WHILE THEY'RE AT IT!

I don't know, I just don't see it.

[TUSK]

Beckham probably so.

Betcha Swann or Stallworth catch it every time. They never went back to huddle and said in whiney voice "Terry ... you throwing it too hard". *** They were also getting mugged when running their routes back then. And if they caught a crossing pattern over the middle there was a chance Jack Tatum or someone similar would make them a quadriplegic.

BAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHHHAHAHHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHA HHAHAHHAHAH

awesome.

[confucius say]

He barely dropped that ball. Took a review to discover it.

Whaaa? Is that kinda like being barely pregnant?

Fitz will never be a great passer. But if he didn't have sh-tty receivers for 3 years he would have a 60% completion percentage while being the most prolific running qb in SEC history. Who the hell would not take that?

[Commercecomet24]

Beckham probably so.

Betcha Swann or Stallworth catch it every time. They never went back to huddle and said in whiney voice "Terry ... you throwing it too hard". *** They were also getting mugged when running their routes back then. And if they caught a crossing pattern over the middle there was a chance Jack Tatum or someone similar would make them a quadriplegic.

Dang skippy!!! Awesome!

[Dawg61]

None of our receivers have complained about our QB throwing with no touch. That's just some of us fans take so I don't think it's correct to call our WRs pus$ies for it.

[dawgday166]

None of our receivers have complained about our QB throwing with no touch. That's just some of us fans take so I don't think it's correct to call our WRs pus$ies for it.

Well you fans that want to whine on the WRs behalf ... cut it out will ya **

These ** are sorta sarcastic in this case. There are things Fitz may can be criticized for and if you wanna say on deep routes he doesn't put enough air under it, I might by that one somewhat. The "too hard" argument I'm sorta tired of ... as a WR your coach will tell you if it hits you in the hands you should catch it.

[Homedawg]

Well you fans that want to whine on the WRs behalf ... cut it out will ya **

These ** are sorta sarcastic in this case. There are things Fitz may can be criticized for and if you wanna say on deep routes he doesn't put enough air under it, I might by that one somewhat. The "too hard" argument I'm sorta tired of ... as a WR your coach will tell you if it hits you in the hands you should catch it.

While I get your premise, you are saying no matter how hard someone throws it, no matter how close the player is, if it hits his hands that's the wr fault? That's crazy. Some balls are thrown to hard to catch.

[DancingRabbit]

Whaaa? Is that kinda like being barely pregnant?

Fitz will never be a great passer. But if he didn't have sh-tty receivers for 3 years he would have a 60% completion percentage while being the most prolific running qb in SEC history. Who the hell would not take that?

I tend to agree. Fitz gets his share of the blame, along with Joe, the WRs and the OL. But if you mix in just a few easy screens, slants, RB swings and wheels - that guy can run all over you (along with whoever is lined up beside him).

[Todd4State]

I'll be so glad when 4/5 years passes when you can quit blaming our former staff on everything. Guess they were the reason we lost to Florida? Oh wait.............
ETA- and I assure you I understand that they had their issues, several of them. But still. Our current coaches recruit way harder, now they need to turn that into results. Effort doesn't necessarily equal success. And yes I know and knew members of both staffs. Fact is last staff was one that led us to heights we've never seen for an extended time. That's a fact.

Hyperbole? I guess you've missed where I have also criticized Joe and the other players as well. Fact of the matter is the reason I bring up the previous staff is that I was complaining about recruiting at certain positions 4/5 years ago and told that Donald Gray was the next Steve Smith. The fact of the matter is the last staff recruited every starter that we have at QB, WR, and OL. But I guess Joe should get all the blame for that.** Pretty funny that you brought up Florida where the defining play was a dropped pass by a former 2-3 star receiver recruited by the last staff.

I'm not worried about recruiting until they fail over two cycles. It's starting to look like we might shift to more JUCO's for this class to try to get better results sooner- and that's probably not a bad idea for Joe in the long run.


And as far as our "heights" our current staff in year one is a La Tech and Arkansas win away from equaling or bettering our last staff's regular season win total in four out of their nine years here. And he's a La Tech, Arkansas, and Egg Bowl win away from equaling Jackie's first season which would tie him with the King for most wins in year one.

[Red Sox Dawg]

I don't know why we have to keep going over this. Fitz is not a good passer of the football and our receivers are not good catchers of the football.

I agree with both of these points. Fitz has problems with accuracy, how hard he throws it doesn't matter. If a SEC receiver gets his hands on the ball he should catch it. Our receivers would drop passes from me.

[Red Sox Dawg]

That's 12 drops total.

Let's say we have 6 so far. That puts his rate at 9% which is middle of the pack. He's still at 55% completions with that. With 0 drops he's at 63%, which isn't even the goal we set out for this season.

No, but if 2-3 more catches were made, say a couple more at KY and the TD pass that was dropped against Florida, we could be 6-0.

Then nobody would care how hard Fitz throws the ball or what his completion % is.

[WSOPdawg]

I want to know how the conversation goes with the coach after a player drops a pass that's thrown to hard? Maybe....

Coach: Wtf happened?
Player: Coach, he threw the ball to hard.
Coach: He threw the ball to hard?
Player: yes sir! I think it jammed my finger.
Coach: Ok have the training staff look at your finger AND TELL THEM TO CHECK YOUR F-ING ****** WHILE THEY'RE AT IT!

I don't know, I just don't see it.

Lol, rep given.

[Dawgology]

I love the myth of the "catchable ball".

As my dad always said "If the football hits you in the hands you have no excuse for not catching it". Incidentally, if a WR gets greater seperation (i.e runs their route well and has speed) then a QB can throw a softer ball but when you have to put the ball on a dime because of little to no seperation you have to sling it pretty hard.

[CarolinaDawgs]

He barely dropped that ball. Took a review to discover it.

Might as well count it as a catch then.

[BrunswickDawg]

So, according CFBFilmRoom - https://www.cfbfilmroom.com/mississippi-state-bulldogs/
Our WR have dropped 12 balls in 123 attempts by Fitz and caught 61. They have also charted Fitz with having 3 throw aways. I read their definition of what qualifies as a drop yesterday, but I can't find it now. But, lets assume it passes they eye test for "catchable ball in bounds that receiver touches and doesn't secure". Somewhat subjective, but I bet if they showed us those 12 drops, we would probably agree they should have been caught.

So, for arguments sake, lets remove the 3 throw aways from the attempts, making Fitz 61 for 120 - 50.8%. Those 12 drops if caught put Fitz at 60.8%. Now, we all recognize that drops are going to happen. The SEC average from that chart is 10.5%. So if our drops were just average, we would still have 6-7 drops. Those 6 additional catches put Fitz at 56% - his historic completion percentage. That is also born out by the 2017 stats listed on the site where our WR only dropped 16 of Fitz's throws for the entire season for a drop rate of 9.2%. This points to our WR being worse than last year.

For comparison sake, let's also look at Key. Key, in his limited play in 17/18, is 46 for 98 for a 46.9%. They have Key charted with 3 throw aways, so lets say he is 46 for 95 for 48.4%. They have 6 Drops credited to Key - an 11.5% drop rate. That projects out to our WR dropping 10.5 of Key's passes over a similar number of completions to Fitz. I'll call that 1.5 drops the "Fitz throws hard as shit" factor.

And yes, I realize that I used Key's stats split across 2 seasons, but with Key only having had 1 game this season it didn't provide enough statistically to make any level of comparison.

A couple of interesting stats on the site are also CTgt (Contested Targets) and CRec (Contested Receptions). Basically, how our WR perform when thrown to while being covered.
This season our WR have had 22 CTgt and have 1 CRec. So, their ability to catch a ball when contested is 4.5%. Last season, there where 59 Ctgt and 6 CRec for a 10.1% contested catch rate.
To me, this speaks very strongly to our WR not getting open and not being able to successfully fight for contested balls.

[Doggie_Style]

So, according CFBFilmRoom - https://www.cfbfilmroom.com/mississippi-state-bulldogs/
A couple of interesting stats on the site are also CTgt (Contested Targets) and CRec (Contested Receptions). Basically, how our WR perform when thrown to while being covered.
This season our WR have had 22 CTgt and have 1 CRec. So, their ability to catch a ball when contested is 4.5%. Last season, there where 59 Ctgt and 6 CRec for a 10.1% contested catch rate.
To me, this speaks very strongly to our WR not getting open and not being able to successfully fight for contested balls.

Great analysis! Does this fall on our lack of talent or does this reflect poorly on Getsy's approach?

[BrunswickDawg]

Great analysis! Does this fall on our lack of talent or does this reflect poorly on Getsy's approach?

I posted this in a thread last week -

In 2016, with 4* Fred Ross (917 y), 4* Donald Gray (709 y), 4* Malik Dear (264), and 3* Keith Mixon (228) as our 4 top receivers being thrown to by a QB they had been working with for 2-3 years, Fitz threw for 2,423 yards and 21 TDs, and ran for his highest rushing total 1,375. That's 186 yards passing and 105 yards rushing a game. Our top 4 receivers average rank on 247 was 3.75* with an average player rating of .902.

In 2017, our WR downgraded due to graduation - and more importantly injuries to Gray, Mixon, and Dear. Our top 4 receivers were 3* Jackson (276 y), 3* Mixon (275 y in 8 games), 3* D. Thomas (263), and 4* Gray (214 y in 8 games).

Our team passing yards went down 525 yards from '16 to '17, and our QB rushing production was essentially the same - 1,430 total yards '16 (Fitz, and D Will), and 1,474 in '17 (Fitz and Key). Fitz's passing numbers dropped to 158 yards a game (11.25 games played due to injury), and his rushing yards decreased to 87.5 yards a game. Our top 4 receivers average rank on 247 was 3.25* with an average player rating of ..883. A significant drop. The receiving corps was injury riddled, personnel changed from week to week, and had virtually no in-game experience beyond our 3 injured guys.

In 2018, our top 4 receivers to date are 3* Mitchell (242 y), 4* Guidry (192), 3* Johnson (119), and 3* Thomas (103). Our top 4 receivers average rank on 247 was 3.25* with an average player rating of .864
To date, Fitz has averaged 142 yards passing a game, and 103 yards rushing. Already, our receiving corps is more productive then last year in terms of top 4 receivers - but there is only 1 carry-over player - Thomas. So, essentially Fitz is throwing to an all new receiving corps for the 2nd straight year. These 4 are lower rated than the previous 2 years - and significantly lower rated than the top 4 receivers in '16.

So far, Fitz' rushing production has bounced back to his '16 level, but the passing production is still down. Why is that? Well Fred Ross, Donald Gray, a healthy Malik Dear, and a healthy Keith Mixon were; 1)higher rated recruits; 2) Ross and Gray are #1 and #15 in school history in receiving yards respectively - meaning they were very talented as far as MSU goes; 3) all of them had worked with Fitz and had at least a full season of SEC experience on the field prior to Fitz being the starter. Gray, Mixon and Dear 1 year ('15), and Ross 3 years ('13, '14 & '15). This year's crew - Mitchell played in 5 games last year, Guidry is a JUCO transfer. Thomas and Johnson have been in the program longer - (14 games over 3 years each) and are also learning a new system.

So, while Fitz can be inconsistent, and is no Tebow passing the ball; the past 2 years have been obviously hampered by our lack of health, experience, consistency, and ability amongst our WR corps. It's right there in the stats. That lack of passing offense has also not led to Fitz or our QB's in general running more - as that production has been relatively steady thru 2+ seasons

Hopefully, over the next 2 weeks our passing game can come together and get us closer to Fitz' ceiling ('16 -2,400+ yards), and not the floor ('17 - 1,782 yards).

ETA: You could argue that I need to replace Justin Johnson in the '18 WR list, since he really is a hybrid TE/WR - but I think most of his production is coming as a WR. If swapped him for Mixon, our #5 receiver, it decreases this year's production level and slightly increases the player rating.

[smootness]

These recievers except Guidry have been catching balls from Fitz at practice everyday for at least 2 yrs now. They catch bullets off the jugs machine from 5 yards away everyday. There's no excuse for the drops. I find it hard to believe our recievers would say, coach he just threw the ball to hard, I couldn't catch it.

It can be both.

There are two contributing factors that have led to our incomplete passes and drops - poor WRs and a QB who doesn't really have a concept of touch on his passes.

[Tbonewannabe]

So, according CFBFilmRoom - https://www.cfbfilmroom.com/mississippi-state-bulldogs/
Our WR have dropped 12 balls in 123 attempts by Fitz and caught 61. They have also charted Fitz with having 3 throw aways. I read their definition of what qualifies as a drop yesterday, but I can't find it now. But, lets assume it passes they eye test for "catchable ball in bounds that receiver touches and doesn't secure". Somewhat subjective, but I bet if they showed us those 12 drops, we would probably agree they should have been caught.

So, for arguments sake, lets remove the 3 throw aways from the attempts, making Fitz 61 for 120 - 50.8%. Those 12 drops if caught put Fitz at 60.8%. Now, we all recognize that drops are going to happen. The SEC average from that chart is 10.5%. So if our drops were just average, we would still have 6-7 drops. Those 6 additional catches put Fitz at 56% - his historic completion percentage. That is also born out by the 2017 stats listed on the site where our WR only dropped 16 of Fitz's throws for the entire season for a drop rate of 9.2%. This points to our WR being worse than last year.

For comparison sake, let's also look at Key. Key, in his limited play in 17/18, is 46 for 98 for a 46.9%. They have Key charted with 3 throw aways, so lets say he is 46 for 95 for 48.4%. They have 6 Drops credited to Key - an 11.5% drop rate. That projects out to our WR dropping 10.5 of Key's passes over a similar number of completions to Fitz. I'll call that 1.5 drops the "Fitz throws hard as shit" factor.

And yes, I realize that I used Key's stats split across 2 seasons, but with Key only having had 1 game this season it didn't provide enough statistically to make any level of comparison.

A couple of interesting stats on the site are also CTgt (Contested Targets) and CRec (Contested Receptions). Basically, how our WR perform when thrown to while being covered.
This season our WR have had 22 CTgt and have 1 CRec. So, their ability to catch a ball when contested is 4.5%. Last season, there where 59 Ctgt and 6 CRec for a 10.1% contested catch rate.
To me, this speaks very strongly to our WR not getting open and not being able to successfully fight for contested balls.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to BrunswickDawg again.

I wanted to give you Rep just for the work put in.

[confucius say]

It can be both.

There are two contributing factors that have led to our incomplete passes and drops - poor WRs and a QB who doesn't really have a concept of touch on his passes.

Of our 12 drops, only 1 (shallow crossing route to Guidry against auburn) has been due to a lack of touch (he should still catch the damn ball). Can you think of another that I'm missing?

[BrunswickDawg]

It can be both.

There are two contributing factors that have led to our incomplete passes and drops - poor WRs and a QB who doesn't really have a concept of touch on his passes.

Yes, it can be. These stats also quantify it a bit.

It can also be OL play - if you scroll down on the CFBFilmroom.com stat page, they have OL stats that reflect QB hurries given up per player, hits allowed on the QB, etc. It even includes the RB in the pass blocking stats so you can see Kylin Hill is our 3rd worst pass blocker.

[smootness]

Of our 12 drops, only 1 (shallow crossing route to Guidry against auburn) has been due to a lack of touch (he should still catch the damn ball). Can you think of another that I'm missing?

Not off the top of my head. It may be true that the drop rate for our WRs is more attributed to Fitz than the WRs. I'm ok with saying that, even if I do believe they are both responsible to some degree. Let's put that primarily on the WRs.

Even if you lower the drop rate by half (which would suddenly put us top 4 in the SEC), he still only has a completion % of 54.5. Heck, if we hadn't dropped a single pass all year, his completion percentage only rises to 59.3.

So I'm ok saying the WRs have not been good and are part of our problem in the passing game. But overall, the problem still seems to rest on Fitzgerald. Even if our WRs caught literally everything they could, he would still be below average in completion percentage. We have 12 drops...but Fitzgerald has thrown 50 other incomplete passes that apparently didn't even hit their target.

Tua has thrown the exact same number of passes as Fitzgerald and completed 27 more. Even if you converted every WR drop into a complete pass, Tua still would have completed 19 more.

[Homedawg]

Not off the top of my head. It may be true that the drop rate for our WRs is more attributed to Fitz than the WRs. I'm ok with saying that, even if I do believe they are both responsible to some degree. Let's put that primarily on the WRs.

Even if you lower the drop rate by half (which would suddenly put us top 4 in the SEC), he still only has a completion % of 54.5. Heck, if we hadn't dropped a single pass all year, his completion percentage only rises to 59.3.

So I'm ok saying the WRs have not been good and are part of our problem in the passing game. But overall, the problem still seems to rest on Fitzgerald. Even if our WRs caught literally everything they could, he would still be below average in completion percentage. We have 12 drops...but Fitzgerald has thrown 50 other incomplete passes that apparently didn't even hit their target.

Tua has thrown the exact same number of passes as Fitzgerald and completed 27 more. Even if you converted every WR drop into a complete pass, Tua still would have completed 19 more.

^^^^^THIS

[tcdog70]

Not off the top of my head. It may be true that the drop rate for our WRs is more attributed to Fitz than the WRs. I'm ok with saying that, even if I do believe they are both responsible to some degree. Let's put that primarily on the WRs.

Even if you lower the drop rate by half (which would suddenly put us top 4 in the SEC), he still only has a completion % of 54.5. Heck, if we hadn't dropped a single pass all year, his completion percentage only rises to 59.3.

So I'm ok saying the WRs have not been good and are part of our problem in the passing game. But overall, the problem still seems to rest on Fitzgerald. Even if our WRs caught literally everything they could, he would still be below average in completion percentage. We have 12 drops...but Fitzgerald has thrown 50 other incomplete passes that apparently didn't even hit their target.

Tua has thrown the exact same number of passes as Fitzgerald and completed 27 more. Even if you converted every WR drop into a complete pass, Tua still would have completed 19 more.

what you think Fitz's completion rate would be if He and Tua swapped places.. Maybe not as good a Tuas but would be much higher.. Most of the time the Bama wrs are running wide ass open. Fitz hasn't played the Hogs are the Rebs yet and Bama hasn't played Fl-Ky or Auburn.

[smootness]

what you think Fitz's completion rate would be if He and Tua swapped places.. Maybe not as good a Tuas but would be much higher.. Most of the time the Bama wrs are running wide ass open. Fitz hasn't played the Hogs are the Rebs yet and Bama hasn't played Fl-Ky or Auburn.

I would say maybe around 60%. Not much more than that, at best. I don't think he's a clearly better passer than Hurts, and that's where Hurts was last year.

[chef dixon]

The lengths some of you go with stat manipulation to make Fitz look like a good passer of the football is comical. Not only do the stats not support this, but just watch the games. He sucks at throwing. Our wide outs suck at their job too. Bad relationship.

[confucius say]

Not off the top of my head. It may be true that the drop rate for our WRs is more attributed to Fitz than the WRs. I'm ok with saying that, even if I do believe they are both responsible to some degree. Let's put that primarily on the WRs.

Even if you lower the drop rate by half (which would suddenly put us top 4 in the SEC), he still only has a completion % of 54.5. Heck, if we hadn't dropped a single pass all year, his completion percentage only rises to 59.3.

So I'm ok saying the WRs have not been good and are part of our problem in the passing game. But overall, the problem still seems to rest on Fitzgerald. Even if our WRs caught literally everything they could, he would still be below average in completion percentage. We have 12 drops...but Fitzgerald has thrown 50 other incomplete passes that apparently didn't even hit their target.

Tua has thrown the exact same number of passes as Fitzgerald and completed 27 more. Even if you converted every WR drop into a complete pass, Tua still would have completed 19 more.

The drop rate is more on the wr.

And fitz is the best rushing qb in the history of the sec. tua is nowhere close. Not even top 200.

Fitz is not a passer like tua. Bad comparison. Also, tua is throwing to nfl guys and fitz is hoping G5 guys can get open.

If we have avg receivers, fitz is a 58% passer while being the best rusher ever. Every coach in America would love that, yet our fans constantly bash him and focus on the fact that he is not Tua as a passer.

[Todd4State]

The drop rate is more on the wr.

And fitz is the best rushing qb in the history of the sec. tua is nowhere close. Not even top 200.

Fitz is not a passer like tua. Bad comparison. Also, tua is throwing to nfl guys and fitz is hoping G5 guys can get open.

If we have avg receivers, fitz is a 58% passer while being the best rusher ever. Every coach in America would love that, yet our fans constantly bash him and focus on the fact that he is not Tua as a passer.

To me it looks like they didn't spend enough time in the offseason working together. At any rate anything below 50% is unacceptable in this day and age of football no matter who people want to blame.

[TUSK]

You cats have beat this shit to death:

1. Fitz is a hardass MFer, but he has horrible accuracy & when he's on target, he throws a "less than catchable" ball...
2. The WRs struggle to get separation and when they do (and when Fitz is accurate and throws a catchable ball), they have drops....
3. The OL sucks in pass protection... allowing Fitz to get "distressed" in the pocket... Sack numbers are a bit high, IMO...

so, if you could get the OL to protect Fitz in the pocket, teach him to read progressions, improve his accuracy and get the WRs to get separation and catch the ball, y'all'd be slick.

[BhamDawg205]

Nm

[dawgday166]

To me it looks like they didn't spend enough time in the offseason working together. At any rate anything below 50% is unacceptable in this day and age of football no matter who people want to blame.

I don't think they worked enough together in offseason either.

Now that can be blamed on Fitz, but taking just the FL game, I went back through the whole game. Fitz threw about 4 or 5 off target passes, made 2 bad decisions about where to throw the ball (and that was 2 of the off target passes too). There were also 3 drops, 2 would've converted 3rd downs to 1st, one would've been a TD or ball inside the 5. 2 drops by Mitchell, 1 by Guidry. One of the Mitchell drops was an outside curl route that was a little off to the inside, but Mitchell should've caught it. He had to come back a little for it, but it hit him between the numbers when he did.

Otherwise, Fitz was on target the whole game. Our offense as a whole had key breakdowns in pass pro, blocking in general, at least 1 route was run the where Jackson ran an in route (on 3rd down and was 5 yds short of down marker ...Jackson made the wrong read ... Fitz was throwing a slant for 1st down on that play), 1 bad throws had 2 players in same area, he was trying to lay it in there while getting pressure, and there was nowhere else let to go with ball, etc. The offense in that game looked similar to early 2016 team, with some of the same players but they're seniors now. Just out of sync.

Not saying Fitz is a world beater accuracy wise. Saying same thing Jimmy Johnson used to say. A good QB never beats you, a great QB never beats you and makes great plays at times, which Fitz does with his legs. Fitz generally takes care of the ball, doesn't beat you, and doesn't throw bad picks that really hurt the team a lot. He's thrown 3 I believe this year, 1 was deflected, 1 he airmailed stepping up in pocket throwing a wet ball in the rain, and the 1 against AU was just a bad throw with no excuses.

[BrunswickDawg]

I don't think they worked enough together in offseason either.

Now that can be blamed on Fitz, but taking just the FL game, I went back through the whole game. Fitz threw about 4 or 5 off target passes, made 2 bad decisions about where to throw the ball (and that was 2 of the off target passes too). There were also 3 drops, 2 would've converted 3rd downs to 1st, one would've been a TD or ball inside the 5. 2 drops by Mitchell, 1 by Guidry. One of the Mitchell drops was an outside curl route that was a little off to the inside, but Mitchell should've caught it. He had to come back a little for it, but it hit him between the numbers when he did.

Otherwise, Fitz was on target the whole game. Our offense as a whole had key breakdowns in pass pro, blocking in general, at least 1 route was run the where Jackson ran an in route (on 3rd down and was 5 yds short of down marker ...Jackson made the wrong read ... Fitz was throwing a slant for 1st down on that play), 1 bad throws had 2 players in same area, he was trying to lay it in there while getting pressure, and there was nowhere else let to go with ball, etc. The offense in that game looked similar to early 2016 team, with some of the same players but they're seniors now. Just out of sync.

Not saying Fitz is a world beater accuracy wise. Saying same thing Jimmy Johnson used to say. A good QB never beats you, a great QB never beats you and makes great plays at times, which Fitz does with his legs. Fitz generally takes care of the ball, doesn't beat you, and doesn't throw bad picks that really hurt the team a lot. He's thrown 3 I believe this year, 1 was deflected, 1 he airmailed stepping up in pocket throwing a wet ball in the rain, and the 1 against AU was just a bad throw with no excuses.

If they weren't working enough together during the off season, you are making an assumption that it can be blamed on Fitz. Fitz is 1 of 10 +/- guys who should have been working together to get this right. We have no idea who was putting in the work this summer because we aren't there. Since we like to make message board assumptions - I'm assuming based on his tweets and leaving practice this spring that Guidry didn't put the work in. I'm assuming that his type attitude might have infected a young corps of receivers. If Guidry flake out all summer, maybe the only guys Fitz had to work with are 3rd string and aren't seeing the field as much? See how easy this is when you assume.

So, we are placing the blame on the 1 guy we know was actually in Starkville this summer still rehabbing from an injury, and went to at least 2 high end QB camps. Again, this isn't saying Fitz's performance has been stellar. It's commentary on the speculation about things we know absolutely Zero about.

[dawgday166]

If they weren't working enough together during the off season, you are making an assumption that it can be blamed on Fitz. Fitz is 1 of 10 +/- guys who should have been working together to get this right. We have no idea who was putting in the work this summer because we aren't there. Since we like to make message board assumptions - I'm assuming based on his tweets and leaving practice this spring that Guidry didn't put the work in. I'm assuming that his type attitude might have infected a young corps of receivers. If Guidry flake out all summer, maybe the only guys Fitz had to work with are 3rd string and aren't seeing the field as much? See how easy this is when you assume.

So, we are placing the blame on the 1 guy we know was actually in Starkville this summer still rehabbing from an injury, and went to at least 2 high end QB camps. Again, this isn't saying Fitz's performance has been stellar. It's commentary on the speculation about things we know absolutely Zero about.

I'm a Fitz fan and don't blame him for our losses. I think he can play at a very high level at times and shows flashes of being very good. With the right coaching and if he'll work at it like Dak, I think he has potential to be even better. But he has work to do, and he has to get better on progressions and reading Ds.

Having said that, he is or should be the leader of the offense. If they didn't work enough together in the off-season, that's mostly on him IMO. He's the QB, a 5th year RS ... he should've taken charge of that and got the guys our there working together if that didn't happen.

[BrunswickDawg]

I'm a Fitz fan and don't blame him for our losses. I think he can play at a very high level at times and shows flashes of being very good. With the right coaching and if he'll work at it like Dak, I think he has potential to be even better. But he has work to do, and he has to get better on progressions and reading Ds.

Having said that, he is or should be the leader of the offense. If they didn't work enough together in the off-season, that's mostly on him IMO. He's the QB, a 5th year RS ... he should've taken charge of that and got the guys our there working together if that didn't happen.

I agree totally that a leader should lead and do everything he can to take charge. But, even strong leadership gets resisted and can't force everyone to buy in. That's on the individuals. As much flak as Fitz gets about this aspect - it amazes me that people just assume that everyone else involved is doing their part except him. If you have ever led a team - either in sports or in the workplace - you know it doesn't work that way. I wish I had $1 for every team member (in sports and in work) that either refused to get on the same page, or was just down right obstinate about doing things their way which in turn negatively impacted the whole effort. In the workplace, leadership can actually control that to an extent. If I'm the boss, I can fire your ass - and I've had the pleasure of doing that before. In sports it's very different. You don't get to pick your team mates. You don't get to dictate their playing time. You don't get to dictate their effort. But, in a team effort all it takes is 1 negative influence, and even the best leaders can have a hard time overcoming the negative impacts.

Now - ideally - in something like football, that leadership position should have some say with coaches - or the coaches should be able to infer enough from the effort and off season work being put in who is in and who is out and have that impact playing time. Maybe it is and we aren't seeing it - or just not wanting to admit it. Wonder why 4* Jamal Couch transferred? Why isn't 4* Malik Dear seeing the field? Why hasn't 4* Whop been able to break thru the line up when he "clearly" more talented. What work were they putting in? Where are the aspersions being cast towards them? Three guys who were going to be counted on as major contributors - two of them upper classmen the other an all-world "day one starter". You don't hear a peep about them, unless its "why isn't Whop seeing the field? Moorhead is an idiot."

And - dawgday166 - this isn't directed at you - but, the general tendency a whole lot people have to cast pretty damning statements on kids when they know absolutely Zero about goes on with the team.

[Red Sox Dawg]

You cats have beat this shit to death:

1. Fitz is a hardass MFer, but he has horrible accuracy & when he's on target, he throws a "less than catchable" ball...
2. The WRs struggle to get separation and when they do (and when Fitz is accurate and throws a catchable ball), they have drops....
3. The OL sucks in pass protection... allowing Fitz to get "distressed" in the pocket... Sack numbers are a bit high, IMO...

so, if you could get the OL to protect Fitz in the pocket, teach him to read progressions, improve his accuracy and get the WRs to get separation and catch the ball, y'all'd be slick.

+1 Great recap. Been reading this crap for weeks. Glad somebody broke it down and summed it up. So, can we move on?

[Tbonewannabe]

I am not sure Fitz will ever be a QB with 65% accuracy. It just doesn't seem to be in his makeup. He is a extremely strong armed QB with great running. Maybe if he gets in the NFL and gets to work on his mechanics under a QB coach 40 hours a week then he can develop into a NFL QB. He also doesn't get to spend that much time working with a QB coach due to the hours limit in college.

He was extremely raw coming into college so he could still develop. Allen for Buffalo was only around 55% completions in college at Wyoming so some NFL team is very likely going to take a chance that he will develop due to his physical talent.

[Todd4State]

If they weren't working enough together during the off season, you are making an assumption that it can be blamed on Fitz. Fitz is 1 of 10 +/- guys who should have been working together to get this right. We have no idea who was putting in the work this summer because we aren't there. Since we like to make message board assumptions - I'm assuming based on his tweets and leaving practice this spring that Guidry didn't put the work in. I'm assuming that his type attitude might have infected a young corps of receivers. If Guidry flake out all summer, maybe the only guys Fitz had to work with are 3rd string and aren't seeing the field as much? See how easy this is when you assume.

So, we are placing the blame on the 1 guy we know was actually in Starkville this summer still rehabbing from an injury, and went to at least 2 high end QB camps. Again, this isn't saying Fitz's performance has been stellar. It's commentary on the speculation about things we know absolutely Zero about.

For the record I think it's on both Fitz and the WR's. And the coaches to an extent. They need to encourage (tell) the players that they need to be throwing to each other in the offseason and make sure it happens.

[confucius say]

You cats have beat this shit to death:

1. Fitz is a hardass MFer, but he has horrible accuracy & when he's on target, he throws a "less than catchable" ball...
2. The WRs struggle to get separation and when they do (and when Fitz is accurate and throws a catchable ball), they have drops....
3. The OL sucks in pass protection... allowing Fitz to get "distressed" in the pocket... Sack numbers are a bit high, IMO...

so, if you could get the OL to protect Fitz in the pocket, teach him to read progressions, improve his accuracy and get the WRs to get separation and catch the ball, y'all'd be slick.

How is an "on target" pass "less than catchable?" By definition, you are saying his on target passes are not catchable (if smn is less than catchable, it is not catchable). If that is the case, he should never pass because even his on target passes are not catchable.

[TUSK]

How is an "on target" pass "less than catchable?" By definition, you are saying his on target passes are not catchable (if smn is less than catchable, it is not catchable). If that is the case, he should never pass because even his on target passes are not catchable.

I probably could have phrased that better... Maybe inverted that... some of the passes are technically "catchable" but not exactly "on target" or in the ideal location/at ideal velocity, etc...

That make more sense???

[confucius say]

I probably could have phrased that better... Maybe inverted that... some of the passes are technically "catchable" but not exactly "on target" or in the ideal location/at ideal velocity, etc...

That make more sense???

Got it.

[dawgday166]

And - dawgday166 - this isn't directed at you - but, the general tendency a whole lot people have to cast pretty damning statements on kids when they know absolutely Zero about goes on with the team.

Agree totally with this.

[Dawgfan77]

To me it looks like they didn't spend enough time in the offseason working together. At any rate anything below 50% is unacceptable in this day and age of football no matter who people want to blame.
From what I was told this is spot on. The lack of confidence commitment and consistency from QB to WR is apparent. Bear was a basketball player but he learned to catch. Ross was a 4 star out of TX who could catch. I like Fitz. Dude is a warrior but he was not an off-season leader like Dak was. I?d be willing to bet if he and the WR worked as hard this offseason as they did when dak was here Fitz completion % would be better. The main reason our WR have been disappointing is no offseason work for timing

Here hoping Key is more diligent of not better go get a grad transfer