FPI gives us 52.7% chance of winning

[msstate7]

Surprising. Doesn't mean a lot bc they liked us the last 2 weeks too. Nevertheless, nice to see a close spread and FPI liking us.

I think whichever defense forces the big turnover will win this game.

[Quaoarsking]

If we can hold them to 14 points, we have a shot. Sad that it's come to that.

Of course we could have held our last 2 opponents (who are presumably, but not definitely, worse teams than Auburn) to 8 points and still lost, so who knows.

[TrapGame]

#RTGDB #FEEDAERIS

[quickstrike2]

We have prolly got more respect from the media, Vegas, and game day pickers than I have ever seen for us to crap it away. Unfortunately I feel like our staff is gonna show us that they are right, and have quick triggered excuses when it doesn?t work.

[smootness]

FPI is lagging behind because they don't realize our coaching is bottom of the barrel bad.

[Dawgology]

If we can hold them to 14 points, we have a shot. Sad that it's come to that.

Of course we could have held our last 2 opponents (who are presumably, but not definitely, worse teams than Auburn) to 8 points and still lost, so who knows.

We would have to hold them to 3 points or less to win. Keep in mind we have only scored 7 against an average Kentucky defense and 6 against an average Florida defense. Auburn has something like the #5 defense in the nation. I would be suprised if we scored at ALL this Saturday. I'm calling an Auburn win: 27-0. Nothing and I mean NOTHING has shown me that this team can score against an elite defense. Auburn may not have a great offense but they are good enough to move the ball and they will pull away in the 4th quarter when our D starts tiring or our QB throws a pick.

[BrunswickDawg]

We would have to hold them to 3 points or less to win. Keep in mind we have only scored 7 against an average Kentucky defense and 6 against an average Florida defense. Auburn has something like the #5 defense in the nation. I would be suprised if we scored at ALL this Saturday. I'm calling an Auburn win: 27-0. Nothing and I mean NOTHING has shown me that this team can score against an elite defense. Auburn may not have a great offense but they are good enough to move the ball and they will pull away in the 4th quarter when our D starts tiring or our QB throws a pick.

Auburn does not have the #5 defense in the nation. They have the #3 Scoring Defense, tied with KENTUCKY. They are #16 in Total Defense. Kentucky is #13 in Total Defense.
I don't get why people refuse to believe that Stoops has put together a legit - at this point in the season elite - defense. In 3 SEC games, they lead the conference in scoring defense at 11 point a game, and in Total D at 294 yards a game. That might change by season's end. But, as of right now Kentucky's defense is one of the best in the country.

And lurking right behind is UF's defense. #9 in scoring defense in the country. #19 in Total Defense. #4 in the SEC in conference games in scoring d, #8 in total d.

And you are are right. This week will be another war of attrition between two extremely good defenses. I honestly really wouldn't be surprised at a 3-2 game.

What has happened is the pendulum in the SEC has swung back to defense. Defense has always been strong, but it has been taken up a notch.
National Scoring D
#3 Auburn/Kentucky; #5 UGA/Alabama; #8 MSU, # 9 UF; #11 LSU. So half of the Top 15 scoring defenses are in the SEC and we will have played 3 of them by week 6 and have 2 more on the schedule.
We only played 4 Top 15 D's last season; 3 in '16; and 2 in '15.

[smootness]

Auburn does not have the #5 defense in the nation. They have the #3 Scoring Defense, tied with KENTUCKY. They are #16 in Total Defense. Kentucky is #13 in Total Defense.
I don't get why people refuse to believe that Stoops has put together a legit - at this point in the season elite - defense. In 3 SEC games, they lead the conference in scoring defense at 11 point a game, and in Total D at 294 yards a game. That might change by season's end. But, as of right now Kentucky's defense is one of the best in the country.

And lurking right behind is UF's defense. #9 in scoring defense in the country. #19 in Total Defense. #4 in the SEC in conference games in scoring d, #8 in total d.

And you are are right. This week will be another war of attrition between two extremely good defenses. I honestly really wouldn't be surprised at a 3-2 game.

What has happened is the pendulum in the SEC has swung back to defense. Defense has always been strong, but it has been taken up a notch.
National Scoring D
#3 Auburn/Kentucky; #5 UGA/Alabama; #8 MSU, # 9 UF; #11 LSU. So half of the Top 15 scoring defenses are in the SEC and we will have played 3 of them by week 6 and have 2 more on the schedule.
We only played 4 Top 15 D's last season; 3 in '16; and 2 in '15.

You don't think a large part of the reason both teams have such a good statistical defense right now is that they've played us and each other?

They have both played 3 SEC games:
Each other
Us
South Carolina / Tennessee

Their defenses are both good but won't look as good going forward.

[Jack Lambert]

You don't think a large part of the reason both teams have such a good statistical defense right now is that they've played us and each other?

They have both played 3 SEC games:
Each other
Us
South Carolina / Tennessee

Their defenses are both good but won't look as good going forward.

Both UK and Uf are ranked this week. I doubt they will be ranked in four weeks.

[smootness]

Both UK and Uf are ranked this week. I doubt they will be ranked in four weeks.

Correct

[Dawg61]

Both UK and Uf are ranked this week. I doubt they will be ranked in four weeks.

Kentucky's defense is legit and so is their RB Snell. I think they'll beat aTm but lose to Mizzou and UGA so they'll still be ranked around #20. Florida I think loses to LSU and Georgia but sneaks out a win over Mizzou so they probably will be right outside the top 25 looking in.

[BrunswickDawg]

Kentucky's defense is legit and so is their RB Snell. I think they'll beat aTm but lose to Mizzou and UGA so they'll still be ranked around #20. Florida I think loses to LSU and Georgia but sneaks out a win over Mizzou so they probably will be right outside the top 25 looking in.

Kentucky is #13 in the AP right now. Win at A&M and at home against Vandy and they could be as high as 7-8 depending on who ahead of them loses or if the can jump the 3 teams with 1 loss currently ahead of them. I think they roll into Athens undefeated for a game to decide the East.

UF has a very favorable schedule left. Only road games are Vandy and FSU. UGA in Jax. Having LSU, South Carolina, Mizzou, at home could be a difference maker. I would not be surprised to see them only drop UGA. I'm not saying they will, but that schedule is very beneficial.

[DawgFromOxford]

I think we all know how this is going to go. We are going to get a nice win this weekend, and everyone is going to get their hopes back up. Just as we are feeling good again, we get stomped by LSU and watch our hopes get thrown back into the dirt. You are all to familiar with how this is going to play out if you've watched MSU sports before.

[msstate7]

I think we all know how this is going to go. We are going to get a nice win this weekend, and everyone is going to get their hopes back up. Just as we are feeling good again, we get stomped by LSU and watch our hopes get thrown back into the dirt. You are all to familiar with how this is going to play out if you've watched MSU sports before.

Please let me get my hopes back up with a win

[Jack Lambert]

Kentucky is #13 in the AP right now. Win at A&M and at home against Vandy and they could be as high as 7-8 depending on who ahead of them loses or if the can jump the 3 teams with 1 loss currently ahead of them. I think they roll into Athens undefeated for a game to decide the East.

UF has a very favorable schedule left. Only road games are Vandy and FSU. UGA in Jax. Having LSU, South Carolina, Mizzou, at home could be a difference maker. I would not be surprised to see them only drop UGA. I'm not saying they will, but that schedule is very beneficial.

The thing about KY is their street cred. If they lose they will drop like a rock off a bridge. KY has only played one road game. They go to A&M and they will lose this weekend. Florida will lose this weekend.

[drunkernhelldawg]

Please let me get my hopes back up with a win

I'm with you. To me, the problem is the O line. Get that fixed and we have a chance.